Probabilistic earthquake economic loss calculation method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a probabilistic earthquake economic loss calculation method and system. The method comprises the following steps: selecting a seismic zone and a potential seismic source regioninfluencing a target region, and determining a seismic activity model and seismic activity parameters; generating a seismic event database through a Monte Carlo random simulation method; selecting anattenuation model, and calculating the seismic intensity of any field point in the target area according to the seismic directory library; calculating the economic loss of the target area according tothe seismic intensity and the macroeconomic vulnerability model; and calculating the earthquake loss occurrence probability of any field point in t years and the economic loss of the field point under the specified probability condition in combination with a large number theorem and a full probability formula. The system comprises a model and parameter determination unit, an earthquake event database generation unit, an earthquake intensity calculation unit, an economic loss calculation unit and an earthquake loss occurrence probability and loss calculation unit. The method considers that thefield points may suffer from the same intensity influence for many times, and provides technical support for earthquake loss prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of probabilistic earthquake loss risk assessment and earthquake loss prediction, in particular to a calculation method and system for probabilistic earthquake economic loss. Background technique [0002] Since the 20th century, my country has accounted for about half of the global earthquake death toll. With the continuous development of social economy, global earthquake disasters are showing a rapid growth trend. Disaster risks are formed when earthquakes are superimposed with the vulnerability and exposure of the natural and human environment, and disasters may occur. Therefore, the key to mitigating earthquake disaster risk is risk identification and assessment. How to prevent earthquake risks and effectively reduce earthquake damage losses has become a long-term and arduous task for all mankind. [0003] Traditional earthquake damage loss prediction analysis usually adopts the method of vulnerability c...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] In order to solve the problem existing in the prior art of "inaccurate earthquake loss assessment results due to failure to consider that a site may be affected by the same intensity multiple times", the present invention provides a method and system for calculating economic loss of probabilistic earthquakes. Considering that within the forecast period, the site may be affected by the same intensity or different intensities many times, it provides good technical support for earthquake loss prediction, earthquake risk prevention and control, and effective mitigation of earthquake risk

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