Information processing system and information processing method

Abstract

An information processing system (10) is provided with an update unit (15D) and an output control unit (15E). The update unit (15D) updates a target inventory level on the basis of an inventory transition prediction pattern representing transition of estimated inventory quantity of an item in the future which is derived from inventory transition information of the item in the past. The output control unit (15E) outputs update result information relating to the updated target inventory level to an external device.

Description

Information processing system and information processing method

[0001] FIELD Embodiments of the present invention relate to an information processing system and an information processing method.

[0002] Conventionally, systems for managing inventory of products and other items have been disclosed. For example, a system has been disclosed that calculates a target inventory level, such as an upper limit inventory level or an order point, based on past shipping records and past trends in inventory amount, and supports replenishment of replenishment amounts according to the difference between the target inventory level and the inventory amount.

[0003] However, conventional technology calculates target inventory levels using only past performance data such as past shipping records and past inventory amounts, which makes it impossible to respond to sudden increases or decreases in demand, resulting in excess inventory or shortages.

[0004] JP 2010-105762 A JP 2010-9169 A

[0005] The present invention has been made in view of the above, and has an object to provide an information processing system and an information processing method that can reduce excess inventory and shortages.

[0006] The information processing system of the embodiment includes an interface that acquires past inventory trend information of a target, and at least one processor, and the at least one processor updates the target inventory level based on an inventory trend prediction pattern that represents the trend of future estimated inventory amounts derived from the inventory trend information, and outputs update result information regarding the updated target inventory level to an external device.

[0007] FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram of an example of an inventory management system according to an embodiment. FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a determination as to whether to update a target inventory level. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of past demand quantity trend information for a target. FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of an example of inventory trend information. FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of an example of an estimated trend pattern. FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of an example of a display screen. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of information processing executed by an information processing system. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of an example of conventional inventory management. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of an example of inventory management by an information processing system according to an embodiment. FIG. 10 is a hardware configuration diagram.

[0008] Hereinafter, embodiments of an information processing system and an information processing method will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0009] FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram of an example of an inventory management system 1 according to this embodiment.

[0010] The inventory management system 1 is a system for executing processes related to inventory management of an object. The object is an object of inventory management. The object is an item whose inventory decreases due to demand and whose inventory increases due to replenishment. The object is, for example, a product, a commodity, etc.

[0011] The inventory management system 1 includes an information processing system 10 and an external system 20. The information processing system 10 and the external system 20 are connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via a network NW or the like.

[0012] The external system 20 is one or more information processing devices provided outside the information processing system 10. The external system 20 is configured by one or more dedicated or general-purpose computers.

[0013] The external system 20 includes a communication unit 21, an input unit 22, an output unit 23, a storage unit 24, and a control unit 25. The communication unit 21, the input unit 22, the output unit 23, the storage unit 24, and the control unit 25 are communicatively connected via a bus or the like.

[0014] The communication unit 11 communicates with the information processing system 10 via a network NW or the like. The input unit 12 accepts various operations by a user. The output unit 23 outputs various information. The output unit 23 may be a display that displays various information, a speaker that outputs various sounds, or the like.

[0015] The storage unit 24 stores various types of data. The storage unit 24 is, for example, a random access memory (RAM), a semiconductor memory element such as a flash memory, a hard disk, an optical disk, etc. The storage unit 27 may be a storage device provided outside the external system 20. The storage unit 27 may also be a storage medium that stores or temporarily stores programs and various types of information downloaded via a local area network (LAN), the internet, etc.

[0016] The control unit 25 executes information processing in the external system 20. The control unit 25 is realized by one or more processors. For example, the control unit 25 may be realized by causing a processor such as a central processing unit (CPU) to execute a program, that is, by software.

[0017] Each of the above units may be realized by a processor such as a dedicated IC, i.e., hardware. Each of the above units may also be realized by a combination of software and hardware. When multiple processors are used, each processor may realize one of the units, or two or more of the units.

[0018] Next, the information processing system 10 will be described.

[0019] The information processing system 10 is one or more information processing devices. The information processing system 10 is configured by one or more dedicated or general-purpose computers.

[0020] The information processing system 10 includes a communication unit 11, an input unit 12, an output unit 13, and a storage unit 14. The communication unit 11, the input unit 12, the output unit 13, and the storage unit 14 are communicatively connected to the control unit 15 via a bus or the like.

[0021] The communication unit 11 communicates with the external system 20 via a network NW or the like. The input unit 12 accepts various operations by a user. The output unit 13 outputs various information. The output unit 13 is a display that displays various information, a speaker that outputs various sounds, etc. At least one of the input unit 12 and the output unit 13 may be configured to be provided outside the information processing system 10 and connected to the control unit 15 so as to be able to communicate with it.

[0022] The storage unit 14 stores various types of data. The storage unit 14 is, for example, a semiconductor memory element such as a RAM or a flash memory, a hard disk, an optical disk, or the like. The storage unit 14 may be a storage device provided outside the information processing system 10. At least a portion of the information stored in the storage unit 14 may be stored in a storage device provided outside the information processing system 10. The storage unit 14 may also be a storage medium that stores or temporarily stores programs and various types of information after downloading them via a local area network (LAN), the Internet, or the like.

[0023] The control unit 15 executes information processing in the information processing system 10 .

[0024] The control unit 15 includes an update determination unit 15A, a calculation unit 15B, a derivation unit 15C, an update unit 15D, and an output control unit 15E.

[0025] The update determination unit 15A, the calculation unit 15B, the derivation unit 15C, the update unit 15D, and the output control unit 15E are realized by one or more processors. For example, each of the above units may be realized by a processor such as a CPU executing a program, i.e., by software. Each of the above units may be realized by a processor such as a dedicated IC (Integrated Circuit), i.e., by hardware. Each of the above units may be realized by a combination of software and hardware. When multiple processors are used, each processor may realize one of the units, or two or more of the units.

[0026] Furthermore, at least one of the above-mentioned components included in the control unit 15 may be configured to be mounted on an external information processing device such as an external system 20 communicatively connected to the information processing system 10 via a network NW or the like.

[0027] The update determination unit 15A determines whether or not to update the currently set target inventory level.

[0028] The target inventory level is a target value for the inventory amount of a target item. Depending on the target inventory level, a replenishment amount for the target item is calculated to satisfy the target inventory level, and the target item is replenished. Therefore, by setting an appropriate target inventory level, excess inventory and stockouts are suppressed. In this embodiment, the information processing system 10 appropriately updates the target inventory level to control the target inventory level so that excess inventory and stockouts can be suppressed (details will be described later).

[0029] The update determination unit 15A reads the target inventory level currently set for the target and the inventory amount of the target. The update determination unit 15A reads the target inventory level and inventory amount, for example, from the memory unit 14. The update determination unit 15A may also read the target inventory level and inventory amount of the target from an external storage device such as the external system 20. Note that it is assumed that at least one of the memory unit 14 and the storage device stores the latest inventory amount of the target by another system or the like. It is also assumed that at least one of the memory unit 14 and the storage device stores a target inventory level, which is a single value currently set for the target. In this embodiment, an example will be described in which the update determination unit 15A reads the currently set target inventory level and inventory amount of the target from the memory unit 14.

[0030] The update determination unit 15A uses the target inventory level and the target inventory amount to determine whether or not to update the target inventory level.

[0031] 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a determination as to whether to update the target stock level TL, in which the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents the stock amount.

[0032] The update determination unit 15A calculates a first percentage T1 and a second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL. The first percentage T1 is a percentage less than the second percentage T2. The first percentage T1 and the second percentage T2 may be preset to prevent stockouts and excess inventory when the inventory amount is within a range between the first percentage T1 and the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL. From the perspective of adjusting the target inventory amount to an appropriate range, the first percentage T1 and the second percentage T2 are preferably 30% and 60%, respectively. In this embodiment, an example will be described in which the first percentage T1 is 30% of the target inventory level TL and the second percentage T2 is 60% of the target inventory level TL.

[0033] The update determination unit 15A determines whether the inventory amount exceeds the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL n or more consecutive times. n is an example of a first threshold value and is an integer equal to or greater than 1. n may be set in advance. n may be changeable as appropriate by a user's operation instruction via the input unit 12, etc. Exceeding the second percentage T2 means that the inventory amount is a value that exceeds the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL.

[0034] The update determination unit 15A executes a process of determining whether to perform an update at predetermined time intervals. The predetermined time may be set in advance. The predetermined time may be, for example, one day, half a day, or the like, but is not limited to these periods. The predetermined time may be changeable as needed by the user operating the input unit 12, for example.

[0035] The update determination unit 15A determines whether the inventory amount has exceeded the second rate T2 of the target inventory level TL n or more consecutive times, including the current, i.e., latest, time t0. That is, the update determination unit 15A makes this determination by determining whether the inventory amount at the latest time t0 exceeded the second rate T2 of the target inventory level TL and whether the inventory amount has exceeded the second rate T2 n or more consecutive times going back to the current determination process. If the update determination unit 15A determines that the inventory amount has exceeded the second rate T2 n or more consecutive times, it determines to update the target inventory level TL.

[0036] The update determination unit 15A also determines whether the inventory amount falls below the first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL m or more times in succession. m is an example of a second threshold and is an integer equal to or greater than 1. m may be set in advance. m may be changeable as appropriate by a user's operation instruction via the input unit 12, etc. The above n and m may be the same value or different values. Falling below the first percentage T1 means that the inventory amount is a value less than the first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL.

[0037] The update determination unit 15A determines whether the inventory amount has fallen below the first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL m or more consecutive times, counting back from the current, i.e., latest, timing t0. That is, the update determination unit 15A makes this determination by determining whether the inventory amount at the latest timing t0 was below the first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL and whether the inventory amount has been determined to be below the first percentage T1 m or more consecutive times counting back from the current determination process. If the update determination unit 15A determines that the inventory amount has fallen below the first percentage T1 m or more consecutive times, it determines to update the target inventory level TL.

[0038] On the other hand, the update determination unit 15A determines not to update the target inventory level TL if the inventory amount is within the range of the first percentage T1 to the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL, if the number of consecutive times that the inventory amount exceeds the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL is less than n, or if the number of consecutive times that the inventory amount falls below the first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL is less than m. Returning to FIG. 1, the explanation will continue.

[0039] The calculation unit 15B calculates the tentative target inventory level based on demand statistical information according to changes in the past demand amount of the target. In this embodiment, the calculation unit 15B calculates the tentative target inventory level when the update determination unit 15A determines to update the target inventory level TL.

[0040] The provisional target inventory level is a target inventory level TL calculated as a provisional value using past trends in demand.

[0041] First, the calculation unit 15B reads demand quantity transition information that indicates the transition of the past demand quantity of the target. For example, the demand quantity transition information of the target is stored in the storage unit 14. The calculation unit 15B may read the demand quantity transition information from the storage unit 14. Alternatively, the calculation unit 15B may read the demand quantity transition information of the target from an external storage device such as the information processing system 10. In this embodiment, the past means a time before the current (latest) time. The future means a time after the current (latest) time.

[0042] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of historical demand volume trend information for a target. The horizontal axis of FIG. 3 represents time, and the vertical axis of FIG. 3 represents the amount received. In FIG. 3, the bar graph represents the trend in demand volume R at each of multiple points in time in the past, including the present. In FIG. 3, the line graph represents the moving average at each of multiple points in time in the past, including the present.

[0043] For example, the calculation unit 15B reads the past demand volume transition information of the target as shown in Fig. 3. Then, the calculation unit 15B calculates the demand statistical information from the demand volume transition information.

[0044] Demand statistical information is information that represents statistics of past demand amounts. Demand statistical information includes the maximum demand amount, the average demand amount, the Z score of the demand amount, the standard deviation of the demand amount, and the subtraction value obtained by subtracting the inventory amount from the demand amount when the most recent stockout occurred. The Z score is a statistical index that represents the spread of inventory amounts based on the average inventory amount.

[0045] Then, the calculation unit 15B calculates the tentative target inventory level based on the demand statistical information. Specifically, the calculation unit 15B calculates the tentative target inventory level so that the distribution of past demand amounts indicated by the demand statistical information falls within a range of a first percentage T1 to a second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL set at each timing in the past.

[0046] Specifically, the calculation unit 15B calculates the tentative target inventory level using the following formula (1).

[0047] Tentative target inventory level = safety inventory level + average demand + Z score x (standard deviation of demand) １／２+ The subtraction value obtained by subtracting the inventory amount from the demand amount when the most recent stockout occurred ... Equation (1)

[0048] In equation (1), the safety stock level is expressed by the following equation (2).

[0049] Safety inventory level = (maximum demand × lead time - average demand × lead time) × α ... Equation (2)

[0050] In equation (2), α is a coefficient. In this embodiment, α is set to 4 / 3. The lead time is the time required from placing an order to replenishment.

[0051] Returning to FIG. 1, the explanation will be continued.

[0052] The derivation unit 15C derives a future inventory transition prediction pattern from the target past inventory transition information.

[0053] Inventory transition information is information that represents the transition of the target inventory quantity in the past. Inventory transition forecast pattern is information that represents the transition of the estimated inventory quantity for a predetermined future period. The predetermined future period is preferably a predetermined future period that continues from the present. The estimated inventory quantity is an estimate of the future inventory quantity. This predetermined period may be a period that is equal to or greater than the lead time, and may be set in advance. Furthermore, this predetermined period may be changeable as appropriate by the user's operation instructions on the input unit 12, etc.

[0054] The derivation unit 15C derives an inventory transition prediction pattern when the update determination unit 15A determines that the target inventory level TL should be updated.

[0055] In detail, the derivation unit 15C reads inventory transition information that indicates the past transition of the inventory amount of the target. For example, the inventory transition information of the target is stored in the storage unit 14. The derivation unit 15C may read the inventory transition information from the storage unit 14. The derivation unit 15C may also read the inventory transition information of the target from an external storage device such as the information processing system 10.

[0056] Figure 4 is a schematic diagram of an example of inventory transition information. The horizontal axis of Figure 4 represents time, and the vertical axis represents inventory quantity. In Figure 4, P' is a line graph representing the transition of past demand quantity. Assume that the derivation unit 15C has acquired the inventory transition information shown in Figure 4, which represents the transition of demand quantity for a predetermined period of time in the past prior to the current timing t0.

[0057] The derivation unit 15C identifies, from the inventory transition information, multiple similar transition patterns P2 similar to a partial transition pattern P1 representing the transition in inventory quantity closest to the present, included in the inventory transition information. Specifically, the derivation unit 15C identifies a partial transition pattern P1 representing the transition in inventory quantity closest to the current timing t0 and during a period L from the waveform represented by the line diagram showing the transition in inventory quantity represented by the inventory transition information represented by the line diagram P'. Figure 4 shows an example in which partial transition patterns P1a and P1b are identified as partial transition patterns P1. The period L may be a period shorter than a predetermined period representing the transition in inventory quantity represented by the inventory transition information, and may be predetermined. Furthermore, the period L may be changeable as needed by a user operating the input unit 12, for example.

[0058] The derivation unit 15C then identifies p similar transition patterns P2 similar to the identified partial transition pattern P1 from the waveform represented by the line diagram showing the transition of inventory amounts represented by the inventory transition information represented by the line diagram P'. p is an integer equal to or greater than 2 and may be predetermined. Furthermore, p may be changeable as appropriate by a user's operation instruction via the input unit 12. Figure 4 shows an example of a situation in which four similar transition patterns P2a and four similar transition patterns P2b are identified as similar transition patterns P2 similar to the partial transition patterns P1a and P1b.

[0059] The derivation unit 15C inputs the identified p similar transition patterns P2 into an estimation model that receives the similar transition pattern P2 as an input and outputs an estimated transition of an estimated inventory amount for a predetermined future period, thereby deriving an estimated transition corresponding to each of the p similar transition patterns P2. The derivation unit 15C may further input a partial transition pattern P1 into the estimation model, thereby further deriving an estimated transition corresponding to the partial transition pattern P1.

[0060] Through these processes, the derivation unit 15C derives a plurality of estimated transition patterns that represent the estimated transition of the estimated inventory amount in a predetermined future period, corresponding to each of the plurality of similar transition patterns P2 and partial transition patterns P1.

[0061] Figure 5 is a schematic diagram of an example of an estimated transition pattern P3. The horizontal axis of Figure 5 represents time, and the vertical axis represents estimated inventory. Figure 5 shows multiple estimated transition patterns P3 derived by the above process for a predetermined period D in the future from the current timing t0. Figure 5 also shows the fluctuation range FR of the estimated transition pattern P3.

[0062] Based on the plurality of estimated transition patterns P3, the derivation unit 15C calculates an inventory transition prediction pattern P4 represented by the average value of the estimated inventory amounts at the same timing for each of the plurality of estimated transition patterns P3 in a future predetermined period D. As shown in FIG. 5 , the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 is represented by the average value of the estimated inventory amounts at each timing for the plurality of estimated transition patterns P3.

[0063] Returning to FIG. 1, the explanation will be continued.

[0064] The update unit 15D updates the target inventory level TL based on the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 derived by the derivation unit 15C. The update unit 15D may update the target inventory level TL based on the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 at predetermined intervals, such as at predetermined times. However, from the perspective of reducing processing load, it is preferable that the update unit 15D updates the target inventory level TL based on the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 when the update determination unit 15A determines to update the target inventory level TL.

[0065] In detail, the update unit 15D updates the target inventory level TL based on the tentative target inventory level calculated by the calculation unit 15B and the inventory transition prediction pattern P4.

[0066] More specifically, the updating unit 15D determines whether the estimated inventory amounts represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 are within a range of a first ratio T1 to a second ratio T2 of the tentative target inventory level. Specifically, the updating unit 15D determines whether all estimated inventory amounts at each timing of the future predetermined period D represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 shown in FIG. 5 are within a range of a first ratio T1 to a second ratio T2 of the tentative target inventory level calculated by the calculation unit 15B.

[0067] When the updating unit 15D determines that the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 is within the range of the first ratio T1 to the second ratio T2 of the tentative target inventory level, the updating unit 15D sets the tentative target inventory level as a new target inventory level TL. That is, in this case, the updating unit 15D updates the currently set target inventory level TL to the calculated tentative target inventory level.

[0068] On the other hand, when the updating unit 15D determines that the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 is outside the range of the tentative target inventory level, which is equal to or greater than the first ratio T1 and equal to or less than the second ratio T2, the updating unit 15D executes the following process. Specifically, when the updating unit 15D determines that at least a part of the estimated inventory amount at each timing of the future predetermined period D represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 shown in FIG. 5 is outside the range of the tentative target inventory level calculated by the calculation unit 15B, which is equal to or greater than the first ratio T1 and equal to or less than the second ratio T2, the updating unit 15D executes the following process.

[0069] In this case, the update unit 15D updates the target inventory level TL so that the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory transition forecast pattern P4 falls within a range of a first percentage T1 to a second percentage T2 of the updated target inventory level TL. Specifically, the update unit 15D updates the currently set target inventory level TL to a target inventory level TL such that all estimated inventory amounts at each timing within the future predetermined period D represented by the inventory transition forecast pattern P4 shown in FIG. 5 fall within a range of a first percentage T1 to a second percentage T2 of the updated target inventory level TL. Updating the target inventory level TL means rewriting the currently set target inventory level TL for the target with a new target inventory level TL. For example, if the currently set target inventory level TL for the target is stored in the storage unit 14, updating means rewriting the target inventory level TL with the newly derived target inventory level TL and storing it over the target inventory level TL.

[0070] Returning to FIG. 1, the explanation will be continued.

[0071] The output control unit 15E outputs update result information regarding the updated target inventory level TL to an external device. The external device is a device such as the output unit 13, the storage unit 14, or an external system 20 connected to the information processing system 10 via the network NW.

[0072] The update result information includes at least the updated target inventory level TL. The update result information may further include at least one of target identification information of the target of the updated target inventory level TL, identification information of the storage location of the inventory of the target, the current (latest) inventory amount of the target, the inventory amount zone, the demand amount cluster, the replenishment amount, and the planned arrival amount.

[0073] The inventory zone is information indicating whether the current inventory belongs to a range below a first percentage T1 of the currently set target inventory level TL, a range between the first percentage T1 and a second percentage T2, or a range above the second percentage T2. The demand cluster is information indicating the cluster to which the current demand belongs, with demand classified into three clusters, High, Medium, and Low, in descending order of magnitude. The replenishment amount is the amount of replenishment of the target, calculated based on the target inventory level TL and the current inventory amount. The planned arrival amount is the planned arrival amount of the target.

[0074] For example, the output control unit 15E stores the update result information in the storage unit 14. Furthermore, for example, the output control unit 15E outputs the update result information to the information processing system 10 via the network NW. The information processing system 10 may execute an ordering process for ordering a target, a replenishment process for replenishing a target, or the like, in accordance with the update result information.

[0075] The output control unit 15E may also output the update result information to the output unit 13.

[0076] 6 is a schematic diagram of an example of a display screen 30 output to the output unit 13. For example, the output control unit 15E displays on the output unit 13 a display screen 30 including update result information.

[0077] The display screen 30 includes, for example, update result information for each warehouse ID (Identification). The warehouse ID is an example of identification information for the storage location of the target inventory. Figure 6 shows an example where the update result information includes a product ID (Identification), a target inventory level, an inventory quantity, an inventory quantity zone, a demand quantity cluster, a replenishment quantity, and a planned arrival quantity.

[0078] The product ID is an example of target identification information. The number shown in the target inventory level is the latest target inventory level TL after updating, and the arrows and numbers in parentheses represent the rate of increase or decrease of the updated target inventory level TL relative to the target inventory level TL before updating. An upward arrow represents an increase rate, and a downward arrow represents a decrease rate. The arrows and numbers in parentheses for the inventory amount represent the rate of increase or decrease of the inventory amount at the current (latest) timing relative to the inventory amount at the previous timing. An upward arrow represents an increase rate, and a downward arrow represents a decrease rate.

[0079] As described above, the inventory zone is information indicating whether the current inventory amount falls within a range of less than a first percentage T1 of the currently set target inventory level TL, a range of equal to or greater than the first percentage T1 and equal to or less than a second percentage T2, or a range exceeding the second percentage T2. In Figure 6, the area in which the current inventory amount falls within the range of less than the first percentage T1 of the currently set target inventory level TL is referred to as a red area, the area in which the current inventory amount falls within the range of equal to or greater than the first percentage T1 and equal to or less than the second percentage T2 is referred to as a yellow area, and the area in which the current inventory amount exceeds the second percentage T2 is referred to as a green area.

[0080] The output control unit 15E may calculate a replenishment amount corresponding to the difference between the updated target inventory level TL and the current inventory amount, and display the calculated amount on the output unit 13. For example, the output control unit 15E may calculate the replenishment amount by subtracting the planned arrival amount from the sum of the inventory amount subtracted from the updated target inventory level TL and the shipping amount at the current timing. Then, the output control unit 15E may display update result information, which further includes the calculated replenishment amount, on the output unit 13.

[0081] In addition, the output control unit 15E transmits inventory replenishment request information regarding the calculated replenishment amount to an external information processing device such as an external system 20 that manages the replenishment of the target.

[0082] The control unit 25 of the external system 20 that has received the inventory replenishment request information may execute a replenishment process to replenish the replenishment amount and target indicated in the inventory replenishment request information. The replenishment process may include, for example, production control of the target whose production amount matches the replenishment amount, replenishment control of the target's storage location with the replenishment amount, etc.

[0083] The control unit 25 may also detect the inventory amount and demand amount of the object that change over time at predetermined intervals using a known method, and store the detected inventory amount and demand amount in the storage unit 24 and the storage unit 14 in association with the object's identification information. The control unit 25 may also store the latest target inventory level TL updated by the update unit 15D in association with the object's identification information in the storage unit 24 and the storage unit 14. Through these processes, the inventory amount, demand amount, and target inventory level TL of the object are updated so that they are always up to date. Note that at least a part of these processes performed by the control unit 25 may be executed by the control unit 15 of the information processing system 10.

[0084] Next, an example of the flow of information processing executed by the information processing system 10 of this embodiment will be described.

[0085] FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of information processing executed by the information processing system 10.

[0086] The update determination unit 15A reads the current inventory amount and the target inventory level TL of the target item from the storage unit 14 or the like (step S100).

[0087] The update determination unit 15A determines whether the inventory amount read in step S100 exceeds the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL read in step S100 n or more consecutive times (step S102). The update determination unit 15A makes the determination in step S102 by determining whether the current inventory amount read in step S100 exceeds the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL read in step S100 and whether the inventory amount has exceeded the second percentage T2 n consecutive times going back from the current determination process.

[0088] If the determination in step S102 is affirmative (step S102: Yes), the process proceeds to step S106, which will be described later. If the determination in step S102 is negative (step S102: No), the process proceeds to step S104.

[0089] In step S104, the update determination unit 15A determines whether the inventory amount read in step S100 has fallen below the first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL m or more consecutive times (step S104). The update determination unit 15A makes the determination in step S104 by determining whether the current inventory amount read in step S100 has fallen below the first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL and whether the inventory amount has fallen below the first percentage T1 m consecutive times going back to the time of the current determination process.

[0090] If the determination in step S104 is affirmative (step S104: Yes), the process proceeds to step S106. If the determination in step S104 is negative (step S104: No), the process waits until a predetermined time has elapsed, and then returns to step S100.

[0091] In step S106, the update determination unit 15A determines to update the target inventory level TL (step S106).

[0092] The calculation unit 15B reads demand quantity transition information that indicates the transition of the target past demand quantity (step S108). By the processing of step S108, for example, the calculation unit 15B reads the demand quantity transition information shown in FIG. 3. Then, the calculation unit 15B derives demand statistical information from the demand quantity transition information read in step S104 (step S110). As described above, the demand statistical information includes the maximum demand quantity, the average demand quantity, the Z-score of the demand quantity, the standard deviation of the demand quantity, the subtraction value obtained by subtracting the inventory quantity from the demand quantity when the most recent stockout occurred, etc.

[0093] The calculation unit 15B calculates the tentative target inventory level based on the demand statistical information derived in step S110, for example, using the above formula (1) or the like (step S112).

[0094] The deriving unit 15C reads inventory transition information that indicates the transition of the target inventory amount in the past (step S114). By the processing of step S114, for example, the deriving unit 15C reads the inventory transition information represented by the line P' shown in FIG.

[0095] Then, the derivation unit 15C derives an inventory transition prediction pattern P4 that represents the transition of the estimated inventory amount at each timing in the future predetermined period D based on the inventory transition information read in step S114 (step S116).

[0096] The updating unit 15D determines whether the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 derived in step S116 is within a range of the first ratio T1 to the second ratio T2 of the tentative target inventory level calculated in step S112 (step S118). If the determination in step S118 is affirmative (step S118: Yes), the process proceeds to step S120. In step S120, the updating unit 15D updates the currently set target inventory level TL to the tentative target inventory level calculated in step S112 (step S120). The process then proceeds to step S124.

[0097] On the other hand, if the determination in step S118 is negative (step S118: No), the process proceeds to step S122. In step S122, the updating unit 15D updates the target inventory level TL so that the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 derived in step S116 falls within a range of the first ratio T1 to the second ratio T2 of the updated target inventory level TL (step S122). Then, the process proceeds to step S124.

[0098] In step S124, the output control unit 15E outputs the update result information including the target inventory level TL updated in step S120 or step S122 to an external device such as the output unit 13, memory unit 14, external system 20, etc. (step S124), and terminates this routine.

[0099] As described above, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment includes an interface that acquires past inventory transition information of a target item, and at least one processor. The at least one processor updates a target inventory level based on an inventory transition prediction pattern that represents a transition of an estimated future inventory amount derived from the inventory transition information, and outputs update result information related to the updated target inventory level to an external device.

[0100] In this way, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment updates the target inventory level TL using the inventory trend forecast pattern P4 that represents the trend of the estimated future inventory amount. Therefore, compared to the conventional technology that updates the target inventory level TL using only the trend of the past demand amount or the trend of the inventory amount, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can respond to sudden increases or decreases in demand and can prevent excess inventory and stockouts.

[0101] Therefore, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can reduce excess inventory and shortages.

[0102] In addition, at least one processor of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment calculates a tentative target inventory level based on demand statistical information corresponding to changes in the target's past demand volume. The at least one processor updates the target inventory level TL based on the tentative target inventory level and the inventory transition prediction pattern P4.

[0103] In this way, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment updates the target inventory level TL by further using the tentative target inventory level calculated according to past changes in demand. Therefore, in addition to the above-mentioned effects, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can update the target inventory level TL to one that can further reduce excess inventory and stockouts.

[0104] Furthermore, at least one processor of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment calculates a provisional target inventory level such that the distribution of past demand amounts indicated by the demand statistical information falls within a predetermined range. The at least one processor calculates a provisional target inventory level, which is a new provisional target inventory level TL, so that the demand amounts at each past timing fall within a predetermined range that is equal to or greater than a first ratio T1 and equal to or less than a second ratio T2 of the target inventory level TL set at each past timing. The at least one processor then updates the target inventory level TL based on the provisional target inventory level and the inventory trend forecast pattern P4.

[0105] Therefore, in addition to the above-mentioned effects, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can update the target inventory level TL to a level that can further reduce excess inventory and stockouts.

[0106] Furthermore, at least one processor of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment updates the tentative target inventory level as the target inventory level when the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 is within a range from less than or equal to a second percentage T2 of the tentative target inventory level to more than or equal to a first percentage T1 that is less than the second percentage T2 of the tentative target inventory level. Furthermore, when the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 is outside this range, the at least one processor updates the target inventory level TL so that the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 is within a range from more than or equal to the first percentage T1 to less than the second percentage T2 of the updated target inventory level TL.

[0107] In this way, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can update the target inventory level TL so that the estimated inventory amount represented by the future inventory transition prediction pattern P4 falls within a range of the first percentage T1 to the second percentage T2 of the updated target inventory level TL. Therefore, in addition to the above-mentioned effects, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can update the target inventory level TL to one that can effectively prevent excess inventory and stockouts.

[0108] Furthermore, at least one processor of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment identifies, from the inventory transition information, a plurality of similar transition patterns P2 that are similar to a partial transition pattern P1 that represents a transition in inventory quantity closest to the present, included in the inventory transition information. The at least one processor derives a plurality of estimated transition patterns P3 that represent estimated transitions in estimated inventory quantities for a predetermined future period D corresponding to each of the plurality of similar transition patterns P2, using the identified plurality of similar transition patterns P2 and an estimation model that inputs the similar transition pattern P2 and outputs an estimated transition of inventory quantities for a predetermined future period D. Then, based on the plurality of estimated transition patterns P3, the at least one processor derives an inventory transition forecast pattern P4 that is represented by an average value of estimated inventory quantities for each timing during the predetermined period D.

[0109] Therefore, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can derive the inventory transition prediction pattern P4 for a predetermined future period D using a small amount of past inventory transition information data.

[0110] Furthermore, at least one processor of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment determines whether to update the target inventory level TL based on the inventory amount. Then, when it is determined that the update should be performed, the at least one processor updates the target inventory level TL.

[0111] In this way, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment updates the target inventory level TL when it is determined to perform an update, which reduces the processing load compared to when the information processing system 10 of this embodiment performs the update process for the target inventory level TL at predetermined time intervals.

[0112] In addition, at least one processor of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment determines to update the target inventory level TL when the number of times the inventory amount has consecutively exceeded the second ratio T2 of the target inventory level TL is equal to or greater than a first threshold value, or when the number of times the inventory amount has consecutively fallen below a first ratio T1 that is less than the second ratio T2 is equal to or greater than a second threshold value.

[0113] Therefore, at least one processor of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can determine, through this determination process, to update the target inventory level TL when a situation arises in which overstocking or stockouts may occur if the current target inventory level TL is continued to be used. Thus, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can reduce the processing load and more effectively prevent overstocking and stockouts.

[0114] Furthermore, at least one processor of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment outputs inventory replenishment request information indicating a replenishment amount corresponding to the difference between the target inventory level TL and the current inventory amount. Therefore, an external device or the like that receives the inventory replenishment request information executes a target replenishment process or the like according to the replenishment amount included in the inventory replenishment request information, thereby suppressing overstock and shortage of the target and replenishing the target.

[0115] 8 and 9 are diagrams illustrating an example of the effect of the information processing system 10 of this embodiment. In Fig. 8 and Fig. 9, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents inventory amount.

[0116] For example, assume that a period of medium demand (Medium), a period of low demand (Low), and a period of high demand (High) occur in sequence for four months each year. Also assume that demand volume transition information showing similar trends in demand volume over the past year is stored in the storage unit 14.

[0117] FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of an example of conventional inventory management. In the prior art, for example, if the inventory amount represented by line S falls below a first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL for a predetermined number of consecutive times (see timings ta1 and ta4), the target inventory level TL is increased. Also, in the prior art, for example, if the inventory amount represented by line S exceeds a second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL for a predetermined number of consecutive times (see timings ta2 and ta3), the target inventory level TL is decreased. In this way, in the prior art, the target inventory level TL is reset using only the past demand trends from the present onward. Therefore, in the prior art, if demand suddenly increases (see the High period in FIG. 8) after a period of low demand (see the Low period in FIG. 8), the target inventory level TL, which had been decreased during the previous Low demand period, is suddenly increased. This can cause production and replenishment to fall behind, resulting in stockouts. Similarly, in the prior art, when demand suddenly drops after a period of high demand, the target inventory level TL, which had been increased during the immediately preceding period of high demand, is suddenly reduced, which can result in excess inventory.

[0118] FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of an example of inventory management by the information processing system 10 of this embodiment.

[0119] On the other hand, in the information processing system 10 of this embodiment, for example, when the inventory amount represented by the line S falls below the first percentage T1 of the target inventory level TL for a predetermined number of consecutive times or more (see timing tb1), or when the inventory amount exceeds the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL for a predetermined number of consecutive times or more (see timings tb2, tb3, and tb4), the information processing system 10 simply determines to update the target inventory level TL. Then, when it determines to update, the update unit 15D of the information processing system 10 updates the target inventory level TL so that the inventory amount at the current (latest) timing is within the range of the first percentage T1 to the second percentage T2 of the updated target inventory level TL based on the inventory trend forecast pattern P4 representing the trend of the estimated future inventory amount and the tentative target inventory level calculated based on the demand statistical information corresponding to the trend of the target past demand amount.

[0120] Therefore, in the information processing system 10 of this embodiment, even during a period of low demand (see the "Low" period in FIG. 9), the target inventory level TL is updated based on the inventory trend forecast pattern P4 derived from inventory trend information indicating that a "High" period in which demand rapidly increases has arrived after a past period of low demand, and the tentative target inventory level calculated from past demand statistical information, so that the target inventory level TL can be increased to increase the inventory amount (see the "Low" period in FIG. 9). Furthermore, in the information processing system 10 of this embodiment, even when demand rapidly increases after a "Low" period in which demand decreases (see the "High" period in FIG. 9), the target inventory level TL is updated based on the inventory trend forecast pattern P4 and the tentative target inventory level, so that the inventory amount represented by the line S falls within a range of the first percentage T1 to the second percentage T2 of the target inventory level TL, thereby enabling ideal inventory management.

[0121] Therefore, the information processing system 10 of this embodiment can reduce excess inventory and shortages.

[0122] Next, an example of the hardware configuration of the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiment will be described.

[0123] FIG. 10 is a hardware configuration diagram of an example of the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 according to the above embodiment.

[0124] The information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiment have a hardware configuration that utilizes a conventional computer, in which a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 80, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 82, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 84, an I / F 86, etc. are interconnected by a bus 88.

[0125] The CPU 80 is a computing device that controls the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiment. The ROM 82 stores programs and the like that realize information processing by the CPU 80. The RAM 84 stores data necessary for various processes by the CPU 80. The I / F 86 is an interface that is connected to a storage unit, an input unit, an output unit, a sensor, a communication unit, and the like, and is used to send and receive data.

[0126] In the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiment, the CPU 80 reads a program from the ROM 82 onto the RAM 84 and executes it, thereby realizing each of the above functional units on the computer.

[0127] The programs for executing the above processes executed in the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiment may be stored in a hard disk drive (HDD). Also, the programs for executing the above processes executed in the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiment may be provided by being pre-installed in the ROM 82.

[0128] Furthermore, the programs for executing the above processes executed by the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiments may be stored in an installable or executable file format on a computer-readable storage medium such as a CD-ROM, CD-R, memory card, DVD (Digital Versatile Disk), or flexible disk (FD) and provided as a computer program product. Furthermore, the programs for executing the above information processes executed by the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiments may be stored on a computer connected to a network such as the Internet and provided by downloading via the network. Furthermore, the programs for executing the above information processes executed by the information processing system 10 and the external system 20 of the above embodiments may be provided or distributed via a network such as the Internet.

[0129] Although the above describes an embodiment, the embodiment is presented as an example and is not intended to limit the scope of the invention. This novel embodiment can be embodied in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. This embodiment and its modifications are included within the scope and spirit of the invention, and are also included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents as defined in the claims.

[0130] The present technology can also be configured as follows: (1) An information processing system including an interface that acquires past inventory transition information of a target item and at least one processor, wherein the at least one processor updates a target inventory level based on an inventory transition forecast pattern that represents a transition of an estimated future inventory amount derived from the inventory transition information, and outputs update result information related to the updated target inventory level to an external device. (2) The information processing system described in (1), wherein the at least one processor calculates a tentative target inventory level based on demand statistical information according to a transition of past demand amount of the target item, and updates the target inventory level based on the tentative target inventory level and the inventory transition forecast pattern. (3) The information processing system described in (1) or (2), wherein the at least one processor calculates the tentative target inventory level such that a distribution of past demand amount indicated by the demand statistical information falls within a predetermined range. (4) The information processing system described in (2) or (3), wherein the at least one processor updates the tentative target inventory level as the target inventory level when the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory trend prediction pattern is within a range from less than a second percentage of the tentative target inventory level to more than a first percentage that is less than the second percentage of the tentative target inventory level, and updates the target inventory level when the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory trend prediction pattern is outside the range so that the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory trend prediction pattern is within a range from more than the first percentage to less than the second percentage of the updated target inventory level.(5) The information processing system according to any one of (1) to (4), wherein the at least one processor: identifies from the inventory transition information a plurality of similar transition patterns similar to a partial transition pattern included in the inventory transition information that represents a transition of an inventory amount closest to the present, derives a plurality of estimated transition patterns that represent the estimated transition of an estimated inventory amount for a predetermined future period corresponding to each of the plurality of similar transition patterns using an estimation model that receives the similar transition patterns as input and outputs an estimated transition of an estimated inventory amount for the predetermined future period, and derives the inventory transition forecast pattern represented by an average value of estimated inventory amounts for the same timing in the predetermined period based on the plurality of estimated transition patterns. (6) The information processing system according to at least one of (1) to (5), wherein the at least one processor: determines whether to update the target inventory level based on the inventory amount, and updates the target inventory level when it is determined to update. (7) The information processing system described in (6), wherein the at least one processor determines to update the target inventory level when the number of times the inventory amount has consecutively exceeded a second percentage of the target inventory level is equal to or greater than a first threshold, or when the number of times the inventory amount has consecutively fallen below a first percentage that is less than the second percentage is equal to or greater than a second threshold. (8) The information processing system described in any one of (1) to (7), wherein the at least one processor outputs inventory replenishment request information of a replenishment amount corresponding to a difference between the target inventory level and a current inventory amount. (9) An information processing method executed by an information processing system, comprising: updating the target inventory level based on an inventory trend prediction pattern that represents a trend in an estimated future inventory amount derived from past inventory trend information of a target item; and outputting update result information related to the updated target inventory level to an external device.

[0131] 10 Information processing system 15A Update determination unit 15B Calculation unit 15C Derivation unit 15D Update unit 15E Output control unit

Claims

1. An information processing system comprising: an interface for acquiring past inventory transition information of a target; and at least one processor, wherein the at least one processor updates a target inventory level based on an inventory transition forecast pattern representing the transition of estimated future inventory amounts derived from the inventory transition information; and outputs update result information regarding the updated target inventory level to an external device.

2. The information processing system of claim 1, wherein the at least one processor calculates a tentative target inventory level based on demand statistical information corresponding to trends in past demand for the target, and updates the target inventory level based on the tentative target inventory level and the inventory trend forecast pattern.

3. The information processing system according to claim 2, wherein the at least one processor calculates the provisional target inventory level such that the distribution of past demand amounts indicated by the demand statistical information falls within a predetermined range.

4. The information processing system of claim 2, wherein the at least one processor updates the tentative target inventory level as the target inventory level when the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory trend prediction pattern is within a range from less than a second percentage of the tentative target inventory level to more than a first percentage that is less than the second percentage of the tentative target inventory level, and when the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory trend prediction pattern is outside that range, updates the target inventory level so that the estimated inventory amount represented by the inventory trend prediction pattern is within a range from more than the first percentage to less than the second percentage of the updated target inventory level.

5. The information processing system of claim 1, wherein the at least one processor: identifies from the inventory trend information a plurality of similar transition patterns similar to a partial transition pattern included in the inventory trend information that represents the transition of inventory quantity closest to the present; uses the identified plurality of similar transition patterns and an estimation model that inputs the similar transition patterns and outputs an estimated transition of estimated inventory quantity for a predetermined future period; derives a plurality of estimated transition patterns that represent the estimated transition of estimated inventory quantity for the predetermined future period corresponding to each of the plurality of similar transition patterns; and derives the inventory trend prediction pattern represented by the average value of estimated inventory quantity for each same timing during the predetermined period based on the plurality of estimated transition patterns.

6. The information processing system of claim 1, wherein the at least one processor determines whether to update the target inventory level based on the inventory amount, and updates the target inventory level when it is determined to update.

7. The information processing system of claim 6, wherein the at least one processor determines to update the target inventory level when the number of times the inventory amount has consecutively exceeded a second percentage of the target inventory level is equal to or greater than a first threshold, or when the number of times the inventory amount has consecutively fallen below a first percentage that is less than the second percentage is equal to or greater than a second threshold.

8. The information processing system according to claim 1, wherein the at least one processor outputs inventory replenishment request information indicating a replenishment amount according to the difference between the target inventory level and the current inventory amount.

9. An information processing method executed by an information processing system, comprising: a step of updating a target inventory level based on an inventory trend prediction pattern representing the trend of estimated future inventory amounts derived from past inventory trend information of the target; and a step of outputting update result information regarding the updated target inventory level to an external device.

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