A design tidal level value method based on short-term data error consideration

Abstract

The application discloses a design tide level value method based on short-term data error consideration in the field of ocean engineering technology, and aims to solve the problem of difficult engineering design tide level value in the area with short tide level data. The method comprises the following steps: calculating the design high and / or low tide level value of a long-term tide level station according to the annual maximum and / or minimum tide level sequence of the long-term tide level station, and estimating the sampling error; obtaining the same period hourly tide level data of a temporary tide level station and a long-term tide level station in the sea area where the engineering is located, and forming the daily maximum and / or minimum tide level sequence; establishing a simple linear correlation equation, and obtaining the regression line error and the sampling error of the correlation coefficient; and then calculating the design high and / or low tide level value of the temporary tide level station according to the above-mentioned data. The application is suitable for the moisture-proof and corrosion-proof of engineering structures, solves the problem of unreliable results when designing tide level value according to short-term tide level data, shortens the required long-term tide level data to 5 years, and changes the current situation that it is difficult to design tide level value when the long-term tide level data of the engineering sea area is less than 20 years.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of marine engineering technology, in particular to a design tide level value taking method based on short-term data and taking errors into consideration. Background Art

[0002] In the tide-proofing system of marine engineering, the design tide level directly affects the project's moisture-proof safety and corrosion protection range. Existing design tide level determination methods primarily utilize concurrent tide level data from temporary tide stations in the project area and nearby long-term tide stations. The design tide level for the project area is then calculated based on the frequency of the annual highest tide level data from the long-term tide stations.

[0003] However, in practice, the age of long-term tide station data near engineering projects often fails to meet the "not less than 20 years" requirement of the "Hydrological Code for Ports and Waterways" JTS145-2015, with only 5-10 years of data available. Due to the limited sample size, sampling errors cannot be ignored when using frequency analysis to calculate design tide levels. When establishing correlation equations for concurrent tide data from temporary tide stations in the engineering area and nearby long-term tide stations, regression line errors in the correlation equations themselves and sampling errors in the correlation coefficients are often encountered. These various errors make the reliability of design tide values ​​based on short-term data questionable. Current technical standards do not clearly define how to account for errors when calculating design tide levels using short-term data. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art and provide a method for determining design tide levels based on short-term data and taking errors into account, thereby solving the problem of difficulty in determining engineering design tide levels in areas where long-term tide data are scarce, and providing a reference for moisture-proof and corrosion-resistant safety of engineering structures.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention is implemented by adopting the following technical solutions:

[0006] The present invention provides a method for determining design tide levels based on short-term data and taking into account errors, which is characterized by comprising the steps described in method A and / or method B:

[0007] Method A:

[0008] Obtain continuous data from long-term tide stations The annual highest tide level data of the year is used to form the annual highest tide level sequence, where ;

[0009] According to the annual highest tide level sequence, the long-term tide level station frequency is calculated to be design high tide values ​​and estimate sampling errors;

[0010] Obtain the hourly tide level data of the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station in the sea area where the project is located, select the daily maximum tide level data of the two stations at the same period, and form the daily maximum tide level series respectively;

[0011] A simple linear correlation equation is established based on the daily maximum tide level series of temporary tide stations and long-term tide stations, and the regression line error and the sampling error of the correlation coefficient are calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation;

[0012] According to the long-term tide station frequency The design high tide value, sampling error, regression line error of the correlation equation between long-term tide station and temporary tide station, sampling error of correlation coefficient are calculated. The frequency of temporary tide station is Design high tide value;

[0013] Method B:

[0014] Obtain continuous data from long-term tide stations The annual lowest tide data of the year is used to form the annual lowest tide sequence, where ;

[0015] According to the annual lowest tide sequence, the long-term tide station frequency is calculated to be design low tide values ​​and estimate sampling errors;

[0016] Obtain the hourly tide level data of the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station in the sea area where the project is located, select the daily minimum tide level data of the two stations at the same period, and form the daily minimum tide level series respectively;

[0017] A simple linear correlation equation is established based on the daily minimum tide series of temporary tide stations and long-term tide stations, and the regression line error and the sampling error of the correlation coefficient are calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation;

[0018] According to the long-term tide station frequency The design low tide value, sampling error, regression line error of the correlation equation between long-term tide station and temporary tide station, sampling error of correlation coefficient are calculated. The frequency of temporary tide station is Design low tide value.

[0019] Furthermore, according to the annual highest tide sequence , the long-term tide station frequency is calculated to be Design high tide value , and estimate the sampling error The calculation formulas are:

[0020] ;

[0021] ;

[0022] Where: Representation sequence capacity, Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of 、 For sample size The relevant coefficients.

[0023] Furthermore, according to the annual lowest tide sequence , the long-term tide station frequency is calculated to be Design low tide value , and estimate the sampling error The calculation formulas are:

[0024] ;

[0025] ;

[0026] Where: Representation sequence capacity, Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of 、 For sample size The relevant coefficients.

[0027] Furthermore, according to the daily maximum tide level sequence of temporary tide stations and long-term tide stations 、 The simple linear correlation equation established is expressed as:

[0028]

[0029] Where: Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence 、 The correlation coefficient between

[0030] The specific calculation formula is:

[0031]

[0032] Where: Represents the daily highest tide level sequence or The sample size of .

[0033] Furthermore, the regression line error is calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation , the sampling error of the correlation coefficient The specific calculation formula is:

[0034]

[0035] .

[0036] Furthermore, the frequency of temporary tide stations is calculated as The specific calculation formula for the design high tide value is:

[0037]

[0038] in: The value range is .

[0039] Furthermore, according to the daily minimum tide sequence of temporary tide stations and long-term tide stations 、 The simple linear correlation equation established is expressed as:

[0040]

[0041] Where: Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence 、 The correlation coefficient between

[0042] The specific calculation formula is:

[0043]

[0044] Where: Represents the daily lowest tide level sequence or The sample size of .

[0045] Furthermore, the regression line error is calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation , the sampling error of the correlation coefficient The specific calculation formula is:

[0046]

[0047] .

[0048] Furthermore, the frequency of temporary tide stations is calculated as Design low tide value The specific calculation formula is:

[0049]

[0050] in: The value range is .

[0051] Furthermore, the hourly tide level data of the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station in the sea area where the project is located shall be obtained for no less than 2 months.

[0052] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0053] 1. The present invention considers both short-term and long-term tidal data, and uses a frequency analysis method to calculate the sampling error in the design tidal level and the error in the correlation equation between the data of the temporary tidal station and the long-term tidal station during the same period. This solves the problem of unreliable results when using short-term tidal data to determine the design tidal level, and provides support for moisture-proof and anti-corrosion design of engineering structures in areas where tidal data is scarce.

[0054] 2. The calculation method provided by the present invention can use short-term tidal data to calculate the design tide value, and use the frequency analysis method to calculate the sampling error when calculating the design tide, the error of the correlation equation of the temporary tide station and the long-term tide station data of the same period, and shorten the required long-term tide data to 5 years, solving the current situation where it is difficult to obtain the design tide value when the long-term tidal data in the engineering sea area is less than 20 years. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0055] The accompanying drawings are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention and constitute a part of the specification. Together with the embodiments of the present invention, they are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute a limitation of the present invention. In the accompanying drawings:

[0056] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of method A in a method for determining a design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors, provided in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 2 This is a flow chart of method B in a method for determining a design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors, provided in embodiment 2 of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 3 This is a long-term tide station in the first embodiment of the present invention. Temporary tide stations Schematic diagram of the relative positions of

[0059] Figure 4 It is a long-term tide station A line chart of the highest tide levels from 2001 to 2020;

[0060] Figure 5 It is a long-term tide station Temporary tide stations Correlation diagram of tide observation data during the same period. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0061] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The following embodiments are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0062] Example 1:

[0063] like Figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for determining design tide levels based on short-term data and taking errors into consideration, including the steps described in method A.

[0064] Method A:

[0065] A1: Obtain continuous data of long-term tide stations The annual highest tide level data of the year is used to form the annual highest tide level sequence, where ;

[0066] A2: Based on the annual highest tide level sequence, the long-term tide level station frequency is calculated to be design high tide values ​​and estimate sampling errors;

[0067] A3: Obtain the hourly tide level data of the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station in the sea area where the project is located, select the daily maximum tide level data of the two stations at the same time, and form the daily maximum tide level series respectively;

[0068] A4: A simple linear correlation equation is established based on the daily maximum tide level series of the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station. The regression line error and the sampling error of the correlation coefficient are calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation.

[0069] A5: According to the long-term tide station frequency The design high tide value, sampling error, regression line error of the correlation equation between long-term tide station and temporary tide station, sampling error of correlation coefficient are calculated. The frequency of temporary tide station is The design high tide value.

[0070] In this embodiment, the sequence of the highest tide level in the year described in A2 is , calculated to obtain the long-term tide station Frequency is Design high tide value , and estimate the sampling error The specific calculation formula is:

[0071] (1)

[0072] (2)

[0073] Where: Representation sequence capacity, Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of 、 For sample size The relevant coefficients.

[0074] It should be noted that: 、 The value can be found in Appendix Table E.3.2 of the Code for Loads on Building Structures GB50009-2012.

[0075] In this embodiment, the daily maximum tide level sequence according to the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station described in A4 is 、 The simple linear correlation equation established is:

[0076] (3)

[0077] Where: Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence 、 The correlation coefficient between

[0078] The specific calculation formula is:

[0079] (4)

[0080] Where: Indicates the daily highest tide level sequence for the same period or The sample size of .

[0081] In this embodiment, the regression line error is calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation described in A4. , the sampling error of the correlation coefficient The specific calculation formula is:

[0082] (5)

[0083] (6)

[0084] In this embodiment, the calculation of temporary tide station described in A5 Frequency is Design high tide value The specific calculation formula is:

[0085] (7)

[0086] in: The value range is .

[0087] It should be noted that: in formula (7), “ " means that the design high tide value Take “ The maximum value of the two values ​​obtained by the two calculation formulas in ".

[0088] The following is an example calculation to illustrate the technical solution of this embodiment:

[0089] Long-term tide station Temporary tide stations Relative position such as Figure 3 As shown. Based on the long-term tide station Taking the highest tide level data from 2001 to 2020 as an example, a long-term tide station The design climax Calculation example analysis. The highest tide level sequence of this tide station from 2001 to 2020 The mean is 3.12m, with a standard deviation is 0.126, and the specific series values ​​are as follows Figure 4 shown.

[0090] The frequency analysis was performed using the extreme value type I distribution model, and the parameters were estimated using the Gumbel method. The design tide level was calculated based on the highest tide level data of the past 20, 15, 10, and 5 years according to formula (1). Calculate the sampling error according to formula (2) The results are summarized in Table 1. When a=1, the design value considering the sampling error is shown in Table 1. shown.

[0091] Table 1 Summary of the designed high tide levels and sampling errors corresponding to the extreme value type I distribution model with different sample sizes

[0092]

[0093] According to the long-term tide station , temporary tide station The hourly tide level observation data of the two stations from 8:05 on January 1, 2017 to 8:00 on March 1, 2017, and the daily highest tide level data of the two stations were selected, as shown in Table 2. A simple linear correlation analysis was performed to obtain the correlation diagram as shown in Table 2. Figure 5 shown.

[0094] Table 2 Long-term tide stations , temporary tide station Daily highest tide level sequence for the same two months

[0095]

[0096] The design high tide level after considering the error is calculated using formula (7) , the results are shown in Table 3.

[0097] Table 3 Temporary tide stations Calculation process table of design high tide level

[0098]

[0099] Example 2:

[0100] like Figure 2 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for determining design tide levels based on short-term data and taking errors into consideration, including the steps described in method B.

[0101] Method B:

[0102] B1: Obtain continuous data of long-term tide stations The annual lowest tide data of the year is used to form the annual lowest tide sequence, where ;

[0103] B2: Based on the annual lowest tide sequence, the long-term tide station frequency is calculated to be design low tide values ​​and estimate sampling errors;

[0104] B3: Obtain the hourly tide level data of the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station in the sea area where the project is located, select the daily minimum tide level data of the two stations at the same period, and form the daily minimum tide level series respectively;

[0105] B4: Establish a simple linear correlation equation based on the daily minimum tide series of the temporary tide station and the long-term tide station, and calculate the regression line error and the sampling error of the correlation coefficient based on the simple linear correlation equation;

[0106] B5: According to the long-term tide station frequency The design low tide value, sampling error, regression line error of the correlation equation between long-term tide station and temporary tide station, sampling error of correlation coefficient are calculated. The frequency of temporary tide station is Design low tide value.

[0107] In this embodiment, the sequence of the lowest tide level in the year described in B2 is , calculated to obtain the long-term tide station Frequency is Design low tide value , and estimate the sampling error The specific calculation formula is:

[0108] (8)

[0109] (9)

[0110] Where: Representation sequence capacity, Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of 、 For sample size The relevant coefficients.

[0111] It should be noted that: 、 The value can be found in Appendix Table E.3.2 of the Code for Loads on Building Structures GB50009-2012.

[0112] In this embodiment, the daily lowest tide sequence according to the temporary tide station and the long-term tide station described in B4 is 、 The simple linear correlation equation established is:

[0113] (10)

[0114] Where: Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence 、 The correlation coefficient between

[0115] The specific calculation formula is:

[0116] (11)

[0117] Where: Represents the daily lowest tide level sequence for the same period or The sample size of .

[0118] In this embodiment, the regression line error is calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation described in B4. , the sampling error of the correlation coefficient The specific calculation formula is:

[0119] (12)

[0120] (13)

[0121] In this embodiment, the calculation of temporary tide level station described in B5 Frequency is Design low tide value The specific calculation formula is:

[0122] (14)

[0123] in: The value range is .

[0124] It should be noted that: in formula (14), “ " means that the design low tide value Take “ The minimum value of the two values ​​obtained by the two calculation formulas in ".

[0125] Example 3:

[0126] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for obtaining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors, including method A of embodiment 1 and method B of embodiment 2, which can obtain the temporary tide level station Frequency is Design high tide value and the frequency is Design low tide value .

[0127] In this embodiment, obtain the temporary tide station in the sea area where the project is located With long-term tide station The hourly tide level data for the same period should be no less than 2 months. This can ensure that the error of the obtained design tide level value is within an acceptable range.

[0128] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the technical principles of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be regarded as the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining design tide levels based on short-term data with consideration of errors, characterized in that: The method comprises the steps of method A and / or method B: Method A: Obtain continuous data from long-term tide stations The annual highest tide level data of the year is used to form the annual highest tide level sequence, where ; According to the annual highest tide level sequence, the long-term tide level station frequency is calculated to be design high tide values ​​and estimate sampling errors; Obtain the hourly tide level data of the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station in the sea area where the project is located, select the daily maximum tide level data of the two stations at the same period, and form the daily maximum tide level series respectively; A simple linear correlation equation is established based on the daily maximum tide level series of temporary tide stations and long-term tide stations, and the regression line error and the sampling error of the correlation coefficient are calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation; According to the long-term tide station frequency The design high tide value, sampling error, regression line error of the correlation equation between long-term tide station and temporary tide station, sampling error of correlation coefficient are calculated. The frequency of temporary tide station is Design high tide value; Method B: Obtain continuous data from long-term tide stations The annual lowest tide data of the year is used to form the annual lowest tide sequence, where ; According to the annual lowest tide sequence, the long-term tide station frequency is calculated to be design low tide values ​​and estimate sampling errors; Obtain the hourly tide level data of the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station in the sea area where the project is located, select the daily minimum tide level data of the two stations at the same period, and form the daily minimum tide level series respectively; A simple linear correlation equation is established based on the daily minimum tide series of temporary tide stations and long-term tide stations, and the regression line error and the sampling error of the correlation coefficient are calculated based on the simple linear correlation equation; According to the long-term tide station frequency The design low tide value, sampling error, regression line error of the correlation equation between long-term tide station and temporary tide station, sampling error of correlation coefficient are calculated. The frequency of temporary tide station is Design low tide value.

2. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to claim 1 is characterized in that: According to the annual highest tide sequence , the long-term tide station frequency is calculated to be Design high tide value , and estimate the sampling error The calculation formulas are: ； ； Where: Representation sequence capacity, Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of 、 For the sample size The relevant coefficients.

3. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to claim 1 is characterized in that: According to the annual lowest tide sequence , the long-term tide station frequency is calculated to be Design low tide value , and estimate the sampling error The calculation formulas are: ； ； Where: Representation sequence capacity, Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of 、 For the sample size The relevant coefficients.

4. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to claim 2 is characterized in that: According to the daily maximum tide level sequence of temporary tide stations and long-term tide stations 、 The simple linear correlation equation established is expressed as: ； Where: Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence 、 The correlation coefficient between The specific calculation formula is: ； Where: Represents the daily highest tide level sequence or The sample size of .

5. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The regression line error is calculated based on a simple linear correlation equation , the sampling error of the correlation coefficient The specific calculation formula is: ； 。 6. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to claim 5 is characterized in that: Calculate the frequency of temporary tide stations as The specific calculation formula for the design high tide value is: ； in: The value range is .

7. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to claim 3 is characterized in that: According to the daily minimum tide sequence of temporary tide stations and long-term tide stations 、 The simple linear correlation equation established is expressed as: ； Where: Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The standard deviation of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence The mean of Representation sequence 、 The correlation coefficient between The specific calculation formula is: ； Where: Represents the daily lowest tide level sequence or The sample size of .

8. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The regression line error is calculated based on a simple linear correlation equation , the sampling error of the correlation coefficient The specific calculation formula is: ； 。 9. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to claim 8 is characterized in that: Calculate the frequency of temporary tide stations as Design low tide value The specific calculation formula is: ； in: The value range is .

10. The method for determining the design tide level based on short-term data and considering errors according to any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: Obtain the hourly tide level data of the same period from the temporary tide level station and the long-term tide level station in the sea area where the project is located for no less than 2 months.

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