A new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model

Abstract

A new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model, including: 1. Constructing a new energy development demand model based on the carbon constraint target and basic power balance situation of the new energy planning area; 2. Constructing a power sufficiency and new energy consumption level model under various power source combinations; then constructing a comprehensive evaluation index model based on the power sufficiency and new energy consumption level model; 3. Constructing a new energy capacity utilization efficiency model based on the historical annual power generation data of the new energy planning area; 4. Constructing an investment return model based on the cash flow and initial investment within the project life cycle; 5. Constructing a new energy development planning and consumption model using the above models, and conducting new energy planning based on the new energy development planning and consumption model. The present invention proposes a new energy development planning and consumption model, which is suitable for energy planning departments, power companies, etc., and provides a solid scientific basis for energy structure adjustment and carbon emission control.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of new energy planning, and in particular to a new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model. Background Art

[0002] The development of renewable energy has made remarkable progress worldwide, especially in wind, solar and energy storage technologies, although their intermittent and volatile nature poses challenges to the stability and reliability of power systems.

[0003] Accurate prediction of renewable energy power generation is the key to achieving efficient use of renewable energy. However, a variety of factors cause the power of renewable energy to fluctuate dramatically, which poses a huge challenge to power prediction. Therefore, solving the intermittent and volatile nature of renewable energy requires upgrading the grid infrastructure, ensuring the adequacy and reliability of the power system, improving energy storage capacity and enhancing grid flexibility. Therefore, advanced prediction models have become a key tool to ensure the safe and efficient operation of wind and solar power generation. They can help operators accurately plan maintenance plans, reduce operating costs and improve economic benefits. At the same time, the new energy consumption model also plays an indispensable role to cope with the impact of the intermittent and volatile nature of renewable energy generation on the stability of the grid.

[0004] For example, the invention patent with publication number: CN117691682A discloses a method for calculating the consumption of new energy, including using the installed capacity of new energy that can be constructed in the current area to define the variables and constants of the new energy carrying capacity, and constructing an objective function with the goal of maximizing the amount of new energy consumption, and establishing the constraints of the objective function based on the variables and constants of the defined new energy carrying capacity. A new energy consumption capacity evaluation model is established based on the objective function and the constraints, and the model is solved to obtain the first new energy consumption calculation result. On this basis, the historical data of new energy units, conventional units and loads at each time point are statistically analyzed to obtain the power output coefficient and load coefficient at each time point, and the power consumption power coefficient and load coefficient of new energy are obtained through coupling analysis.

[0005] For example, the invention patent with publication number: CN117134329A discloses a new energy consumption calculation method, device and medium based on random production simulation, including obtaining data of the target power system; inputting the installed capacity and historical power generation data of the new energy units into a preset random scenario generation model to generate a wind power theoretical output sequence and a photovoltaic theoretical output sequence under the random scenario; inputting the theoretical output sequence into a preset mixed integer linear programming model to obtain a wind power output sequence and a photovoltaic output sequence; and calculating the wind power consumption capacity and the photovoltaic consumption capacity according to the wind power theoretical output sequence, the wind power output sequence, the photovoltaic theoretical output sequence and the photovoltaic output sequence.

[0006] Based on the above solutions, it is found that there are still some deficiencies in the systematic planning and evaluation of new energy development and consumption, which are specifically reflected in the following aspects:

[0007] a. Usually, the research is only conducted under a single or a few fixed scenarios, which cannot fully consider various possible changes and uncertainties in the future. This makes the planning less robust and unable to cope with complex and changing actual situations.

[0008] b. They usually only focus on a single dimension and ignore other important dimensions, such as environmental impact, socio-economic benefits, etc. The lack of a comprehensive evaluation framework makes it impossible for these models to comprehensively measure and optimize the overall benefits of new energy projects. Summary of the invention

[0009] The present invention provides a new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model to solve the technical problems mentioned in the background technology.

[0010] To achieve the above object, the technical solution of the present invention is achieved as follows:

[0011] The present invention provides a new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model, comprising the following steps:

[0012] S1. Based on the carbon constraint targets and basic electricity balance in the new energy planning area, a new energy development demand model is constructed to analyze the new energy consumption capacity of the new energy planning area under the balance of electricity, power and peak load regulation;

[0013] S2. Based on the historical power generation data of the new energy planning area, the actual power supply in the historical year and the power under various power combinations, a model of power sufficiency and new energy consumption level under various power combinations is constructed; then, based on the power sufficiency and new energy consumption level model, a comprehensive evaluation index model is constructed to judge the overall operation effect of the power system;

[0014] S3. Construct a new energy capacity utilization efficiency model based on the historical annual power generation data of the new energy planning area, which is used to optimize the resource allocation of the new energy planning project to improve the energy utilization rate of the planning project;

[0015] S4. Construct an investment return model based on the cash flow and initial investment during the project life cycle to help investors make reasonable investment arrangements;

[0016] S5. Then use the new energy development demand model, comprehensive evaluation index model, new energy capacity utilization efficiency model and investment return rate model to build a new energy development plan and consumption model, and carry out new energy planning based on the new energy development plan and consumption model.

[0017] Furthermore, the carbon constraint target of the new energy planning area in S1 includes the carbon emission limit and current carbon emissions of the new energy planning area; the basic situation of power balance includes the total power demand and the supply-demand difference of the new energy planning area.

[0018] Furthermore, the new energy development demand model in S1 is specifically:

[0019] ;

[0020] in: Develop demand for new energy sources; is the total electricity demand; It is the carbon emission limit, and the specific value is determined according to the region’s carbon emission reduction target; is the current carbon emissions; is the new energy development coefficient, which is used to adjust the sensitivity of new energy demand to the gap between supply and demand; is the difference between supply and demand, indicating the difference between actual power supply and demand; n is the time period.

[0021] Furthermore, the power sufficiency and new energy consumption level models under various power source combinations in S2 are specifically as follows:

[0022] ;

[0023] ;

[0024] Among them, R is the power adequacy; is the actual power supply; is the electricity demand; is the discharge capacity of the energy storage system; is the charge amount of the energy storage system; It is the adjustment coefficient of the energy storage system on the power balance, which is used to balance the impact of the charging and discharging of the energy storage system on supply and demand; is the seasonal fluctuation coefficient, which is used to reflect the impact of seasonal changes on the supply and demand balance; t is time, ranging from 0 to 8760 hours; is the cycle, which is 8760 hours, i.e. one year; N is the level of new energy consumption; The total amount of electricity generated by renewable energy sources; The penalty coefficient for wind and solar power abandonment is used to adjust the impact of wind and solar power abandonment on the consumption level; For abandoned wind power; To abandon the amount of photovoltaic power; To abandon the hydroelectricity;

[0025] Among them, the utilization rate of new energy cannot be less than 90%, that is ( - - - ) / ≥90%.

[0026] Furthermore, the comprehensive evaluation index model in S2 is specifically as follows:

[0027] ;

[0028] in, represents the comprehensive evaluation index, Indicates the average hourly power adequacy; Indicates the average hourly new energy consumption level; and The calculation formula is as follows:

[0029] ;

[0030] and, and are the weights of power sufficiency and new energy consumption level respectively; Indicates the power sufficiency at different times; Indicates the level of new energy consumption at different times.

[0031] Furthermore, the historical annual power generation data of the new energy planning area in S2 includes the actual power generation at a certain time in the historical year and the theoretical power generation at a certain time in the historical year.

[0032] Furthermore, the new energy capacity utilization efficiency model in S3 is as follows:

[0033] ;

[0034] in, For the efficiency of new energy production capacity utilization; is the actual power generation at the i-th moment, ranging from 0 to the maximum installed capacity; is the theoretical power generation at the i-th moment, ranging from 0 to the maximum installed capacity; is the weight coefficient at the i-th moment, which is used to reflect the importance of power generation in different time periods; n is the time period.

[0035] Furthermore, the calculation formula of the initial investment in S4 is as follows:

[0036] ;

[0037] Where IRR is the internal rate of return; For the W The cash flow of the year; T2 is the project life cycle; For initial investment.

[0038] Beneficial effects of the present invention:

[0039] The present invention provides a new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model, and provides a new energy development planning and consumption model, aiming to scientifically and rationally predict and manage the development and consumption demand of new energy. By combining different power supply configurations, calculating power sufficiency and new energy consumption level, and evaluating capacity utilization efficiency and investment return rate, the accuracy and reliability of prediction are greatly improved through the new energy development planning and consumption model. It is suitable for energy planning departments, power companies, etc., and provides a solid scientific basis for energy structure adjustment and carbon emission control. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0041] In order to facilitate the understanding of the present invention, the present invention will be described more fully below with reference to the relevant drawings. Preferred embodiments of the present invention are provided in the drawings. However, the present invention can be implemented in many other different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. On the contrary, the purpose of providing these embodiments is to make the understanding of the disclosure of the present invention more thorough and comprehensive.

[0042] Reference Figure 1 The embodiment of the present application provides a new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model, comprising the following steps:

[0043] S1. Based on the carbon constraint targets and basic electricity balance in the new energy planning area, a new energy development demand model is constructed to analyze the new energy consumption capacity of the new energy planning area under the balance of electricity, power and peak load regulation; so as to formulate a reasonable new energy plan; thus ensuring that the new energy development plan meets the carbon reduction targets and electricity demand, and can provide basic data for subsequent planning and investment;

[0044] S2. Based on the historical power generation data of the new energy planning area, the actual power supply in the historical year and the power under various power combinations, the power sufficiency and new energy consumption level models under various power combinations are constructed; the power sufficiency and new energy consumption level models under the power combination can be used to calculate and judge the reliability, stability and consumption capacity of different power combinations;

[0045] Since in the 8760-hour time series production model, at every moment, power supply and demand, renewable energy generation and its abandonment will affect power sufficiency and renewable energy consumption level, it is necessary to build a comprehensive evaluation index model based on the power sufficiency and renewable energy consumption level model. The comprehensive evaluation index model is a function of power sufficiency (R) and renewable energy consumption level (N), which is used to judge the overall operation effect of the power system.

[0046] S3. Construct a new energy capacity utilization efficiency model based on the historical annual power generation data of the new energy planning area, which is used to optimize the resource allocation of the new energy planning project to improve the energy utilization rate of the planning project;

[0047] S4. Construct an investment return model based on the cash flow and initial investment during the project life cycle to help investors make reasonable investment arrangements;

[0048] S5. Then use the new energy development demand model, comprehensive evaluation index model, new energy capacity utilization efficiency model and investment return rate model to build a new energy development plan and consumption model, and carry out new energy planning based on the new energy development plan and consumption model.

[0049] In some embodiments, the carbon constraint target of the new energy planning area in S1 includes the carbon emission limit and current carbon emissions of the new energy planning area; the basic situation of power balance includes the total power demand and supply-demand difference of the new energy planning area.

[0050] In some embodiments, the new energy development demand model in S1 is specifically:

[0051] ;

[0052] in: Develop demand for new energy sources; is the total electricity demand; It is the carbon emission limit, and the specific value is determined according to the region’s carbon emission reduction target; is the current carbon emissions; is the new energy development coefficient, which is used to adjust the sensitivity of new energy demand to the gap between supply and demand; is the difference between supply and demand, indicating the difference between actual power supply and demand; n is the time period.

[0053] In some embodiments, the power sufficiency and new energy consumption level models under various power source combinations in S2 are specifically:

[0054] ;

[0055] ;

[0056] Where R is the power adequacy; R>0.2, high adequacy; 0≤R≤0.2, moderate adequacy; R<0, low adequacy; the setting requirement for power adequacy is R<0; is the actual power supply in megawatts (MW); is the electricity demand in megawatts (MW); is the discharge capacity of the energy storage system; is the charge amount of the energy storage system; It is the adjustment coefficient of the energy storage system on the power balance, which is used to balance the impact of the charging and discharging of the energy storage system on supply and demand, and is usually between 0.8 and 1.2; is the seasonal fluctuation coefficient, usually between 0.1 and 0.3, which is used to reflect the impact of seasonal changes on the balance of supply and demand; t is time, in hours (h), ranging from 0 to 8760 hours (i.e. one year); is the period, in hours (h), and the value is 8760 hours, i.e. one year; The total amount of electricity generated by renewable energy, in megawatts (MW); The penalty coefficient for wind and solar power abandonment is usually between 0.1 and 1.0, and is used to adjust the impact of wind and solar power abandonment on the consumption level; is the amount of wind power abandoned, in megawatts (MW); is the amount of abandoned photovoltaic power, in megawatts (MW); It is the amount of abandoned hydropower, measured in megawatts (MW).

[0057] Moreover, according to regulations, the utilization rate of new energy cannot be less than 90%, that is ( - - - ) / ≥90%.

[0058] In some embodiments, the comprehensive evaluation index model in S2 is specifically as follows:

[0059] ;

[0060] in, represents the comprehensive evaluation index, Indicates the average hourly power adequacy; Indicates the average hourly new energy consumption level; and The calculation formula is as follows:

[0061] ;

[0062] and, and The weights of power sufficiency and new energy consumption level respectively determine their relative importance in the comprehensive evaluation indicators; Indicates the power sufficiency at different times; Indicates the level of new energy consumption at different times.

[0063] In some embodiments, the historical annual power generation data of the new energy planning area in S2 includes the actual power generation at a certain time in the historical year and the theoretical power generation at a certain time in the historical year.

[0064] In some embodiments, the new energy capacity utilization efficiency model in S3 is specifically as follows:

[0065] ;

[0066] in, For the efficiency of new energy production capacity utilization; is the actual power generation at the i-th moment, in megawatts (MW), ranging from 0 to the maximum installed capacity; is the theoretical power generation at the i-th moment, in megawatts (MW), ranging from 0 to the maximum installed capacity; is the weight coefficient at the i-th moment, usually a value between 0 and 1, used to reflect the importance of power generation in different time periods; n is the time period.

[0067] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the initial investment in S4 is as follows:

[0068] ;

[0069] Where IRR is the internal rate of return; For the W The cash flow in years, T2 is the project life cycle, in monetary units (such as yuan or US dollars), and the value range depends on the scale of the project; T2 is the project life cycle, in years; It is the initial investment in monetary units, and the value range depends on the scale of the project.

[0070] In some embodiments, the new energy planning method further includes the following steps:

[0071] S6. Compare the differences in new energy development plans and consumption models at home and abroad, build different new energy development plans and consumption models suitable for each country, and summarize the differences among countries in technology and market mechanisms. Then, based on the information obtained in S6 and the different new energy development plans and consumption models of each country, predict and plan the new energy development paths in different regions, and provide effective new energy consumption solutions.

[0072] Specifically, determine the research objectives and scope, select research objects; obtain the planning and implementation status of various countries through literature research and data collection, collect new energy installed capacity, absorption capacity, grid structure and economic, population, geographical and climate data; analyze the goals, technical routes and market mechanisms in the new energy development plans of various countries; study and compare the existing new energy absorption models of various countries; based on the actual situation of each country, adjust or develop applicable new energy development plans and absorption models, and verify and optimize them through actual data, and summarize the differences in technology, market and model applicability among countries. Then, based on the information obtained from S6 and the different new energy development plans and absorption models of various countries, predict and plan the new energy development paths in different regions, and provide effective new energy absorption solutions.

[0073] To facilitate understanding of S1 to S5, the following examples are used to illustrate:

[0074] Example 1: City A

[0075] Scenario analysis and base case:

[0076] Assume that the carbon emission limit of City A is The current carbon emissions are 109 million tons. It is 297 million tons.

[0077] According to the Key Performance Indicators Report on Environmental Sustainability of Electricity Supply in City A (2023) issued by the Economic and Information Commission of City A, the total electricity demand The total electricity supply is 184.9 million megawatts (MW). The difference between supply and demand is 101.5 million MW. It is -83.4 million megawatts (MW).

[0078] New energy development coefficient Take 1, and the time period n is 5 years.

[0079] Calculation of demand for new energy development:

[0080] ;

[0081] Calculated: =1589.7 MW;

[0082] because A positive value indicates that the current demand for new energy in City A is sufficient and that the existing development of new energy needs to be increased.

[0083] Calculation of power sufficiency and new energy consumption level: Assuming the seasonal fluctuation coefficient of City A is 0.2, the amount of electricity generated by new energy 8.9 million MW of abandoned hydropower 0 MW, wind power abandoned 100,000 MW of abandoned photovoltaic power The penalty factor is 200,000 MW. is 0.5; the discharge capacity of the energy storage system 100,000 megawatts (MW); the charging capacity of the energy storage system The regulation coefficient of energy storage system on power balance is 100,000 megawatts (MW). is 1.

[0084] Calculation of power adequacy (t is one year):

[0085] ;

[0086] Calculated: R = -0.451;

[0087] Calculation of new energy consumption level:

[0088] ;

[0089] Calculated: N = 0.95;

[0090] Calculation of new energy capacity utilization efficiency: Assume that there are power generation data at four times in a day, including actual power generation, theoretical power generation and weight coefficient. The following is sample data: =800 MW, =1000 MW, =0.3; =900 MW, =950 MW, =0.2; =700 MW, =800 MW, =0.3; =600 MW, =750 MW, =0.2.

[0091] ;

[0092] Calculated: =0.852;

[0093] Return on investment evaluation: Assume that the initial investment of a new energy project in City A is RMB 10 million; project life cycle T2 is 5 years; annual cash flow It is RMB 2 million, RMB 2.5 million, RMB 3 million, RMB 3.5 million, and RMB 4 million.

[0094] ;

[0095] Calculation shows: IRR=13.45%.

[0096] Example 2: City B

[0097] Scenario analysis and base case:

[0098] Assume that the carbon emission limit of City B is The current carbon emissions are 25 million tons. It is 83.45 million tons.

[0099] Assume that the total electricity demand of City B is 112.86 million MW, assuming that the total power supply of City B is is 106.4 million MW, then the difference between supply and demand in City B is It is -6.46 million megawatts (MW).

[0100] New energy development coefficient Take 1, and the time period n is 5 years.

[0101] Calculation of demand for new energy development:

[0102] ;

[0103] Calculated: =19651.35 MW;

[0104] because A positive value indicates that the current demand for new energy in City B is sufficient and that the existing development of new energy needs to be increased.

[0105] Calculation of power sufficiency and new energy consumption level:

[0106] Assume that the seasonal fluctuation coefficient of City B is is 0.5, the amount of electricity generated by new energy 52.178 million MW of abandoned hydropower 0 MW, wind power abandoned 150,000 MW of abandoned photovoltaic power 400,000 MW, the penalty factor is 0.9; the discharge capacity of the energy storage system 12.7 million megawatts (MW); the charging capacity of energy storage systems The regulation coefficient of energy storage system on power balance is 13.5 million megawatts (MW). 2 is 0.7.

[0107] Calculation of power adequacy (t is one year):

[0108] ;

[0109] Calculated: R = -0.052;

[0110] Calculation of new energy consumption level:

[0111] ;

[0112] Calculated: N = 0.98;

[0113] Calculation of new energy capacity utilization efficiency: Assume that there are power generation data at five times in a day, including actual power generation, theoretical power generation and weight coefficient. The following is sample data: =80 MW, =100 MW, =0.2; =150MW, =200 MW, =0.3; =70 MW, =100 MW, =0.1; =120 MW, =150MW, =0.2; =60 MW, =100 MW, =0.2.

[0114] ;

[0115] Calculated: =0.743;

[0116] Return on investment evaluation: Assume that the initial investment of a new energy project in City B is RMB 5 million; project life cycle T2 is 5 years; annual cash flow It is RMB 1 million, RMB 1.2 million, RMB 1.4 million, RMB 1.6 million, and RMB 1.8 million.

[0117] ;

[0118] Calculation shows: IRR=11.2%.

[0119] Example 3: City C

[0120] Scenario analysis and base case:

[0121] Assume that the carbon emission limit of City C is The current carbon emissions are 35 million tons. It is 147.2 million tons.

[0122] Assume that the total electricity demand in City C is 114 million megawatts (MW), assuming that the total power supply of City C is 119.952 million MW, then the difference between supply and demand in City C is It is 5.952 million megawatts (MW).

[0123] New energy development coefficient 1 is taken as 0.6, and the time period n is 5 years.

[0124] Calculation of demand for new energy development:

[0125] ;

[0126] Calculated: =8688.24 MW;

[0127] Calculation of power sufficiency and new energy consumption level:

[0128] Assume that the seasonal fluctuation coefficient of City C is is 0.4, assuming that the amount of electricity generated by renewable energy in City C 864,400 MW of abandoned hydropower 40,000 MW of wind power was abandoned 20,000 MW of abandoned photovoltaic power The penalty factor is 20,000 MW. is 0.5; the discharge capacity of the energy storage system 20 million megawatts (MW); the charging capacity of energy storage systems The regulation coefficient of energy storage system on power balance is 25 million megawatts (MW). 2 is 1.

[0129] Calculation of power adequacy (t is one year):

[0130] ;

[0131] Calculated: R = 0.00835;

[0132] Calculation of new energy consumption level:

[0133] ;

[0134] Calculated: N = 0.886;

[0135] Calculation of new energy capacity utilization efficiency: Assume that there are power generation data at five times in a day, including actual power generation, theoretical power generation and weight coefficient. The following is sample data: =90 MW, =100 MW, =0.25; =130 MW, =150 MW, =0.2; =110 MW, =120 MW, =0.15; =160 MW, =200 MW, =0.25; =50 MW, =100 MW, =0.15.

[0136] ;

[0137] Calculated: =0.815;

[0138] ROI Assessment: Assuming the initial investment in a new energy project in San Francisco RMB 10 million; project life cycle T2 is 5 years; annual cash flow It is RMB 2 million, RMB 3 million, RMB 4 million, RMB 5 million and RMB 6 million.

[0139] ;

[0140] Calculation shows: IRR=23.29%.

[0141] The present invention provides a new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model, which aims to scientifically and rationally predict and manage the development and consumption demand of new energy. By combining different power supply configurations, calculating power sufficiency and new energy consumption level, and evaluating capacity utilization efficiency and investment return rate, the accuracy and reliability of prediction are greatly improved through the new energy development planning and consumption model. It is suitable for energy planning departments, power companies, etc., and provides a solid scientific basis for energy structure adjustment and carbon emission control. It improves some shortcomings of previous new energy development planning and consumption models in systematic planning and evaluation, which are mainly reflected in the underutilization of scenario analysis methods. Usually, research is only carried out under a single or a few fixed scenarios, and various possible changes and uncertainties in the future cannot be fully considered. In addition, it often only focuses on a single dimension of problems and ignores other important dimensions, such as environmental impact and socio-economic benefits, and lacks a comprehensive evaluation framework.

[0142] The present invention quantifies and weights various influencing factors to ensure that the model can comprehensively and scientifically evaluate and predict the demand for new energy development, power system adequacy and new energy consumption level, thereby providing accurate decision-making basis for investors and power system planners.

[0143] The above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention. In addition, the technical solutions between the various embodiments of the present invention can be combined with each other, but it must be based on the ability of ordinary technicians in the field to implement. When the combination of technical solutions is contradictory or cannot be implemented, it should be considered that such a combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be based on the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A new energy planning method based on new energy development planning and consumption model, characterized in that: The steps include: S1. Based on the carbon constraint targets and basic electricity balance in the new energy planning area, a new energy development demand model is constructed to analyze the new energy consumption capacity of the new energy planning area under the balance of electricity, power and peak load regulation; The new energy development demand model in S1 is specifically: ； in: Develop demand for new energy sources; is the total electricity demand; It is the carbon emission limit, and the specific value is determined according to the region’s carbon emission reduction target; is the current carbon emissions; is the new energy development coefficient, which is used to adjust the sensitivity of new energy demand to the gap between supply and demand; is the difference between supply and demand, indicating the difference between actual power supply and demand; n is the time period; S2. Based on the historical power generation data of the new energy planning area, the actual power supply in the historical year and the power under various power combinations, a model of power sufficiency and new energy consumption level under various power combinations is constructed; then, based on the power sufficiency and new energy consumption level model, a comprehensive evaluation index model is constructed to judge the overall operation effect of the power system; The comprehensive evaluation index model in S2 is as follows: ； in, represents the comprehensive evaluation index, Indicates the average hourly power adequacy; Indicates the average hourly new energy consumption level; and The calculation formula is as follows: ； ； and, and are the weights of power sufficiency and new energy consumption level respectively; Indicates the power sufficiency at different times; Indicates the level of new energy consumption at different times; S3. Construct a new energy capacity utilization efficiency model based on the historical annual power generation data of the new energy planning area to optimize resource allocation for the new energy planning projects; The new energy capacity utilization efficiency model in S3 is as follows: ； in, For the efficiency of new energy production capacity utilization; is the actual power generation at the i-th moment, ranging from 0 to the maximum installed capacity; is the theoretical power generation at the i-th moment, ranging from 0 to the maximum installed capacity; is the weight coefficient at the i-th moment, which is used to reflect the importance of power generation in different time periods; n is the time period; S4. Construct an investment return model based on the cash flow and initial investment during the project life cycle to help investors make reasonable investment arrangements; The calculation formula of the initial investment in S4 is as follows: ； Where IRR is the internal rate of return; is the cash flow in the Wth year; T2 is the project life cycle; For initial investment; S5. Then use the new energy development demand model, comprehensive evaluation index model, new energy capacity utilization efficiency model and investment return rate model to build a new energy development plan and consumption model, and carry out new energy planning based on the new energy development plan and consumption model.

2. The new energy planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The carbon constraint target of the new energy planning area in S1 includes the carbon emission limit and current carbon emissions of the new energy planning area; the basic situation of power balance includes the total power demand and supply-demand difference of the new energy planning area.

3. The new energy planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The power sufficiency and new energy consumption level models under various power source combinations in S2 are specifically as follows: ； ； Among them, R is the power adequacy; is the actual power supply; is the electricity demand; is the discharge capacity of the energy storage system; is the charge amount of the energy storage system; It is the adjustment coefficient of the energy storage system on the power balance, which is used to balance the impact of the charging and discharging of the energy storage system on supply and demand; is the seasonal fluctuation coefficient, which is used to reflect the impact of seasonal changes on the supply and demand balance; t is time, ranging from 0 to 8760 hours; is the cycle, which is 8760 hours, i.e. one year; N is the level of new energy consumption; The total amount of electricity generated by renewable energy sources; The penalty coefficient for wind and solar power abandonment is used to adjust the impact of wind and solar power abandonment on the consumption level; For abandoned wind power; To abandon the amount of photovoltaic power; To abandon the hydroelectricity; Among them, the utilization rate of new energy cannot be less than 90%, that is ( - - - ) / ≥90%.

4. The new energy planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The historical annual power generation data of the new energy planning area in S2 includes the actual power generation at a certain time in the historical year and the theoretical power generation at a certain time in the historical year.

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