Method and system for predicting influence of port shipping on water ecosystem

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and system for predicting the influence of port shipping on a water ecosystem, and relates to the technical field of environment prediction.The method comprises the steps that firstly, ecological environment current situation investigation and port shipping investigation are conducted on a research area, and basic data and port data of ecological environment simulation are obtained; secondly, basic data and port data of ecological environment simulation are input into the constructed hydrodynamic force-sediment-water environment model to obtain simulated environment factors, the constructed habitat model is input according to the simulated environment factors, the habitat suitability change condition is calculated, and the habitat suitability change condition is calculated; and finally, evaluating the influence of port shipping development on the water ecosystem according to the habitat suitability change condition. By integrating the ecological environment status and detailed data of port shipping activities and combining the habitat model, changes of port shipping development on hydrological characteristics, sediment transportation and water quality conditions are accurately predicted, and then the influence on an aquatic ecosystem is evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of environmental prediction, and in particular to a method and system for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems. Background Art

[0002] my country has proposed strengthening the protection and restoration of the ecological environment in transportation, strictly implementing ecological restoration, and integrating the concept of ecological protection into the entire process of transportation infrastructure planning, construction, operation and maintenance. Port planning often involves rare and protected aquatic animals, and port construction may have an adverse impact on them.

[0003] At present, the impact of port construction on water ecology is mostly qualitative analysis, which is out of touch with the prediction of hydrodynamics and water environment. Developing a port aquatic animal habitat model and realizing quantitative analysis of the impact of port development and construction on aquatic animals are of great significance to the ecological construction of ports.

[0004] However, the impact of existing port and shipping development and construction on aquatic ecosystems is still in its infancy. In current research, some researchers have predicted the growth and reproduction behavior of typical aquatic organisms, but most of them are aimed at a typical species, such as aquatic plants, benthic organisms or fish. There is no unified modeling of the habitat behavior of typical aquatic organisms such as aquatic plants, benthic organisms, and swimming organisms through food chain relationships. In other words, there are few studies on simulation and prediction of aquatic ecosystems. Summary of the invention

[0005] The present application provides a method and system for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems. By comprehensively analyzing the current status of the ecological environment and detailed data on port shipping activities, combined with habitat models, it accurately predicts the changes in hydrological characteristics, sediment transport and water quality caused by the development of port shipping, and then evaluates the impact on aquatic ecosystems.

[0006] In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical solution adopted in the embodiment of the present application is as follows:

[0007] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems, the method comprising:

[0008] Conduct an ecological environment status survey and port shipping survey in the study area to obtain basic data and port data for ecological environment simulation;

[0009] Input the basic data of ecological environment simulation and port data into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain the simulated environmental factors;

[0010] The simulated environmental factors were input into the constructed habitat model to calculate the changes in habitat suitability;

[0011] Assess the impact of port shipping development on aquatic ecosystems based on changes in habitat suitability.

[0012] In a possible implementation, the step of inputting the basic data of ecological environment simulation and port data into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain simulated environmental factors includes:

[0013] Use MIKE and / or Deflt 3D mathematical models to build a hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model;

[0014] Input the basic data of ecological environment simulation into the hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain the basic data of the current situation of the study area;

[0015] The model boundary conditions of the hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model were changed according to the port data, and then the basic data of the current situation of the study area were input to obtain the simulated environmental factors.

[0016] In a possible implementation, the habitat model includes an aquatic plant growth model, and the step of calculating the change in habitat suitability based on the habitat model constructed by inputting simulated environmental factors includes:

[0017] The simulated environmental factors are input into the aquatic plant growth model, and the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids;

[0018] Based on the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants, the habitat suitability curve for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants is obtained through literature review and / or experimental data;

[0019] Based on the habitat suitability curve of aquatic plant growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor of aquatic plants;

[0020] According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of aquatic plants were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of aquatic plants.

[0021] Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of aquatic plants, the dynamic simulation of aquatic plants was carried out using the Logistic growth curve equation of aquatic plants, and the net growth of aquatic plants was analyzed.

[0022] In a possible implementation, the single habitat factor suitability coefficient g of aquatic plants is p The calculation formula is: where α x , β x and γ x are all coefficients of aquatic plants, and x is the habitat factor of aquatic plants;

[0023] Comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) of aquatic plants p The calculation formula is: Where n is the number of environmental factors;

[0024] The logistic growth curve equation of aquatic plants is:

[0025]

[0026] P is the biomass of aquatic plants, r p is the intrinsic growth rate of aquatic plants, k p is the maximum biomass of aquatic plants in the habitat, c d is the shedding function of aquatic plants, Q is the flow or tidal flux, P0 is the initial biomass, k c is the shedding function caused by the tidal flow, and t is the time step in the differentiation.

[0027] In a possible implementation, the habitat model includes a benthic animal growth model, and the step of calculating the change in habitat suitability based on the habitat model constructed by inputting simulated environmental factors includes:

[0028] The simulated environmental factors are input into the benthic animal growth model, and the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids.

[0029] Based on the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals, the habitat suitability curve for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals is obtained through literature review and / or experimental data;

[0030] Based on the habitat suitability curve of benthic animal growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor of benthic animals;

[0031] According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of benthic animals were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals.

[0032] Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals, the dynamic simulation of benthic animals was carried out using the logistic growth curve equation of benthic animals, and the net growth of benthic animals was analyzed.

[0033] In a possible implementation, the single habitat factor suitability coefficient g of benthic animals is b The calculation formula is: where α y , β y , γ y are all coefficients of benthic animals, and y is the habitat factor of benthic animals;

[0034] Comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) of benthic animalsb for: Where n is the number of environmental factors;

[0035] The logistic growth curve equation of benthic animals is:

[0036] where r b is the maximum feeding absorption rate, B is the biomass of benthic animals, k b is the maximum biomass of benthic animals in the habitat, K h is the amount of food source when the feeding rate of benthic animals reaches half of the maximum value, c b is the metabolic rate of benthic animals themselves, g b-DO is the habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals corresponding to dissolved oxygen concentration, pr b is the proportion of benthic animals preyed on by fish, g f-tem is the habitat suitability coefficient of fish and temperature, N is the food source of benthic animals, E P is the aquatic plant decline term, pr p It is the proportion of aquatic plant decline to the food source of benthic animals.

[0037] In a possible implementation, the habitat model includes a fish habitat model, and the step of calculating the change in habitat suitability based on the habitat model constructed by inputting simulated environmental factors includes:

[0038] The simulated environmental factors are input into the fish habitat model, and the key habitat factors for fish growth and reproduction are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids;

[0039] Based on the key habitat factors for fish growth and reproduction, obtain the habitat suitability curve for fish growth and reproduction through literature review and / or experimental data;

[0040] Based on the habitat suitability curve for fish growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor for fish;

[0041] According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of fish were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of fish.

[0042] Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of fish, the relative value of fish population is calculated by combining the function of tidal velocity on fish, the function of food resources on fish and the function of underwater noise on fish.

[0043] The number of fish in the study area was calculated based on the relative value of fish population.

[0044] In a possible implementation, the single habitat factor suitability coefficient g of fish isf for: where α z , γ z , β z are all coefficients of fish, and z is the habitat factor of fish;

[0045] The comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) of fish f for: Where n is the number of environmental factors;

[0046] The calculation formula for the relative value of fish population NMf is: f =f(v)·f(F B )·f(un)·HSI f , where f(v) is the function of the tidal velocity on fish, f(F B ) is the function of the impact of food resources on fish, and f(un) is the function of the impact of underwater noise on fish;

[0047] Fish population in the study area TNM f The calculation formula is A j is the area of ​​the rectangular grid, S j It is the conversion coefficient between relative number and absolute number of fish.

[0048] In a possible implementation, the steps of evaluating the impact of port shipping development on aquatic ecosystems based on changes in habitat suitability include:

[0049] If the change in habitat suitability is greater than the second threshold, the port shipping development plan will be reconsidered;

[0050] If the change in habitat suitability is between the first threshold and the second threshold, the port shipping development plan will be optimized;

[0051] If the change in habitat suitability is less than the first threshold, the port shipping development plan will be implemented, and the first threshold is smaller than the second threshold.

[0052] In a second aspect, the embodiment of the present application further provides a system for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems, the system comprising:

[0053] Data collection unit, used to conduct an ecological environment status survey and port shipping survey in the study area to obtain basic data and port data for ecological environment simulation;

[0054] An environmental model building unit is used to input the basic data of ecological environment simulation and port data into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environmental model to obtain simulated environmental factors;

[0055] A habitat model construction unit is used to input simulated environmental factors into the constructed habitat model to calculate the changes in habitat suitability;

[0056] Assessment unit used to evaluate the impact of port shipping development on aquatic ecosystems based on changes in habitat suitability.

[0057] Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the present application proposes a method and system for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems. First, an ecological environment status survey and a port shipping survey are conducted in the study area to obtain basic data and port data for ecological environment simulation. Secondly, the basic data and port data for ecological environment simulation are input into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain simulated environmental factors. The habitat model constructed according to the simulated environmental factors is input to calculate the changes in habitat suitability. Finally, the impact of port shipping development on aquatic ecosystems is evaluated based on the changes in habitat suitability. By combining the detailed data of the ecological environment status and port shipping activities, combined with the habitat model, the changes in hydrological characteristics, sediment transport and water quality caused by port shipping development are accurately predicted, and then the impact on aquatic ecosystems is evaluated. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0058] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for use in the embodiments are briefly introduced below. It should be understood that the following drawings only show certain embodiments of the present invention and therefore should not be regarded as limiting the scope. For ordinary technicians in this field, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0059] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems proposed in an embodiment of the present application is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Generally, the components of the embodiments of the present invention described and shown in the drawings here can be arranged and designed in various different configurations.

[0061] Therefore, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention provided in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of the invention claimed for protection, but merely represents selected embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0062] It should be noted that, in the absence of conflict, the features in the embodiments of the present invention may be combined with each other.

[0063] The impact of existing port and shipping development and construction on aquatic ecosystems is still in its infancy. In current research, some researchers have predicted the growth and reproduction behavior of typical aquatic organisms, but most of them are aimed at a typical species, such as aquatic plants, benthic organisms or fish. There is no unified modeling of the habitat behavior of typical aquatic organisms such as aquatic plants, benthic organisms, and swimming organisms through food chain relationships. In other words, there are few studies on simulation and prediction of aquatic ecosystems.

[0064] In response to the above technical problems, the embodiment of the present application provides a method and system for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems. By comprehensively combining the current ecological environment with detailed data on port shipping activities and combining habitat models, the system accurately predicts changes in hydrological characteristics, sediment transport and water quality caused by port shipping development, and then evaluates the impact on aquatic ecosystems. Not only the impact of habitat factors such as water flow, sediment, and water temperature caused by port reclamation and shipping development is considered, but also the impact of underwater noise caused by ship navigation on fish is specially considered, which is described in detail below.

[0065] Please refer to Figure 1 , Figure 1 The flowchart of the method for predicting the impact of port shipping on the water ecosystem proposed in the embodiment of the present application is shown, including the following steps:

[0066] Step S100: Conduct an ecological environment status survey and a port shipping survey in the study area to obtain basic data and port data for ecological environment simulation.

[0067] The basic data include hydrological environment element data and current status survey data. The hydrological environment element data include water depth, flow velocity, tide level, flow direction, bottom quality, temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen. The current status survey data include the types, quantity, dominant species and spatial distribution of organisms. The current status survey data include port water and land area planning schemes, the scale and layout of port reclamation, route layout, port planned throughput, throughput by cargo category, terminal grade by type, channel dredging scale and layout, and the main factors affecting the ecological environment of port shipping.

[0068] First, an ecological environment status survey is conducted, which is divided into a hydrodynamic status survey, a water environment status survey and a water ecological status survey. The hydrodynamic status survey focuses on the movement characteristics of water flow, including water depth, flow velocity, tide level (especially important in coastal or estuary areas), flow direction, etc. It helps to understand the energy distribution of water flow, water exchange rate and potential pollutant diffusion patterns.

[0069] The survey on the current status of water environment covers indicators such as water temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen. Water temperature affects the physiological activities and distribution of aquatic organisms. Salinity is a key parameter for measuring the salt content in seawater or freshwater bodies affected by salt water. The dissolved oxygen level is directly related to the survival of organisms in aquatic ecosystems. A low oxygen environment will limit the living space of aquatic organisms.

[0070] The survey of the current status of water ecology involves the investigation of aquatic plants, benthic animals (organisms living at the bottom of the water body), fish and other biological communities. By recording the types, numbers, dominant species and spatial distribution of different organisms, the diversity and structural integrity of the ecosystem can be assessed.

[0071] Secondly, the port shipping development situation survey is conducted, which is divided into collecting the port shipping development plan of the research area and identifying the main factors affecting the ecological environment of port shipping. The collection of the port shipping development plan of the research area includes: 1. Port water and land area planning scheme, which involves the overall layout design of the port water area and land area, including the location arrangement of berths, yards, auxiliary facilities, etc., and how to efficiently use the coastline resources. 2. The scale and layout of port reclamation, the specific plan to expand the port land area by building seawalls and filling the seabed, including the required reclamation area, construction methods and environmental protection measures. 3. Route layout, planning the navigation path of ships entering and leaving the port, considering factors such as channel width, depth, turning radius, etc., to ensure safe and efficient navigation, 4. Port planning throughput and cargo throughput, estimating the maximum capacity of the port as a whole and various types of cargo (such as containers, bulk cargo, liquid cargo, etc.), the unit is usually 10,000 tons. 5. The terminal level of different types, according to the maximum size and load of the berthable ship, divide the service level of the terminal, such as 100,000 tons, 200,000 tons, etc. 6. The scale and layout of channel dredging. In order to ensure the safety of ship navigation, it is necessary to regularly carry out work plans for channel cleaning and deepening, including the dredging scope, depth and handling of dredged materials.

[0072] Identify the main factors affecting the ecological environment from port shipping: 1. Port construction, which mainly affects hydrological conditions, such as changing water depth, slowing down flow velocity, affecting tidal flow patterns, changing bottom structure (through reclamation and other projects), and possibly disturbing the local water temperature and salinity balance. 2. Shipping development, increased ship traffic will generate underwater noise, affecting the communication and reproduction of aquatic organisms, and may destroy the balance of the aquatic ecosystem in the long term. In addition, ship emissions (such as oil pollution and waste) are also important sources of pollution.

[0073] Step S200: input the basic data of ecological environment simulation and port data into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain simulated environmental factors.

[0074] Based on the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model and the input ecological environment and port development basic data, the simulation process will produce a series of prediction results on environmental factors. These results are digital reproductions of the environmental status of the study area after the construction of port shipping facilities is completed, and can include hydrodynamic parameters, sediment transport, water quality indicators and ecological impact assessment.

[0075] Step S200 includes:

[0076] Use MIKE and / or Deflt 3D mathematical models to build a hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model;

[0077] Input the basic data of ecological environment simulation into the hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain the basic data of the current situation of the study area;

[0078] The model boundary conditions of the hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model were changed according to the port data, and then the basic data of the current situation of the study area were input to obtain the simulated environmental factors.

[0079] Use professional software such as MIKE or Deltares' Delft3D to build a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model of the study area. These models are based on physical laws and describe processes such as water flow, sediment transport and pollutant diffusion through mathematical equations. First, use measured water depth, flow rate, tide level, bottom type, temperature and salinity data to calibrate (adjust model parameters to match observed data) and verify (check the consistency of model simulation results with actual conditions) to ensure that the model can accurately reflect the current situation.

[0080] Once the model is verified to be effective, the boundary conditions and internal parameters of the model will be adjusted according to the port planning scheme, such as simulating the changes in the coastline caused by port reclamation, the impact of dock construction and channel dredging on hydrodynamics. Through these adjustments, the model can predict the changes in water depth, flow rate, tide level, bottom quality, water temperature and salinity in the area after the construction of port shipping facilities is completed. These data are crucial to assessing the potential impact of construction projects on typical biological habitats.

[0081] It is worth noting that the model will take into account the special environmental impact of the cold water discharge problem of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. The cold water released during the operation of the LNG receiving station flows back to the sea, which may cause a temporary drop in the temperature of the surrounding sea area. In water environment models such as MIKE, the location of the cold water outlet of the LNG terminal, the discharge rate (in cubic meters per second, m 3 / s) and the expected temperature drop (e.g. 5°C). The model then simulates and calculates the distribution of the cold discharge on the water temperature of the surrounding sea area within a specified time period, that is, the cold discharge impact range, which helps to assess the possible thermal shock effect on the aquatic ecosystem.

[0082] Step S300: Calculate the change in habitat suitability based on the habitat model constructed based on the simulated environmental factors.

[0083] Habitat models are analytical tools used to predict and assess the response of specific species or communities to environmental changes. First, the model selects a series of representative aquatic organisms as research objects, including aquatic plants (such as reeds and sedges), benthic animals (such as smooth river clams and river clams) and swimming organisms (such as large yellow croakers and other fish). Secondly, the model simulates the complex predator-prey relationship between these organisms to form a multi-level food chain / food web structure. For example, aquatic plants provide shelter and food for benthic animals, which in turn are a source of food for swimming organisms such as fish. This interactive relationship is crucial to understanding the stability, productivity and sensitivity of ecosystems to environmental changes.

[0084] The environmental factor data (such as water depth, flow rate, bottom type, water temperature, salinity, etc.) output by the previous hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model are then used to evaluate the range of suitable habitats for different biological populations. For example, some fish may prefer waters with sufficient shelter and moderate water flow, while benthic animals may have specific requirements for bottom hardness and organic matter content. Finally, by adjusting the environmental variables in the model (such as simulating environmental changes after port construction), observe how these changes affect the distribution, density and biodiversity of suitable habitats for each biological population. This dynamic simulation helps predict future habitat changes and the potential migration or reduction of biological populations.

[0085] The habitat model includes an aquatic plant growth model, and step S400 includes:

[0086] The simulated environmental factors are input into the aquatic plant growth model, and the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids;

[0087] Based on the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants, the habitat suitability curve for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants is obtained through literature review and / or experimental data;

[0088] Based on the habitat suitability curve of aquatic plant growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor of aquatic plants;

[0089] According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of aquatic plants were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of aquatic plants.

[0090] Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of aquatic plants, the dynamic simulation of aquatic plants was carried out using the Logistic growth curve equation of aquatic plants, and the net growth of aquatic plants was analyzed.

[0091] First, the study area is subdivided into multiple rectangular grids j to facilitate the spatial refinement of environmental factor data analysis and management, ensuring that the environmental characteristics of each small area can be independently considered and evaluated. The hydrological, sediment, and water environmental parameters (such as water depth, flow velocity, tide level, bottom type, salinity, etc.) output by the hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model are assigned to the grids and adapted to the actual conditions of each grid through interpolation methods. Through scientific research and field investigations, the key factors affecting the growth of target aquatic plants (such as reeds and sedges) are identified, and suitability curves are established for each factor. The suitability curve expresses the preference of plants for specific environmental conditions, usually with a range of values ​​between 0 and 1, with 1 indicating the most suitable.

[0092] Based on the habitat suitability curve of aquatic plant growth and reproduction, the single habitat factor suitability coefficient of aquatic plants is calculated. The single habitat factor suitability coefficient of aquatic plants g p The calculation formula is: where α x , β x and γ x are all coefficients of aquatic plants, and x is the habitat factor of aquatic plants;

[0093] The geometric mean method is used to integrate the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of aquatic plants to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of aquatic plants. This coefficient reflects the potential for plant growth under comprehensive environmental conditions. The comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of aquatic plants is HSI. p The calculation formula is: Where n is the number of environmental factors.

[0094] The Logistic growth curve model is used to simulate the biomass changes of aquatic plants over time, that is, to simulate the biomass loss process caused by tides and their own metabolism. The typical aquatic plant growth equation is: E P =c d Q (P-P0)+k c ·Q·(P-P0), the model takes into account the intrinsic growth of plants (G P ) and biomass loss due to external factors (such as tidal erosion and self-metabolism) (E P ). Among them, the intrinsic growth rate (r p ) determines the potential of plant growth rate, maximum biomass (k p ) is the maximum carrying capacity allowed by the environment, HSI affects the actual growth rate, and the shedding function (c d and k c ) are associated with hydrodynamic conditions and reflect the regulation of plant distribution by physical processes.

[0095] The logistic growth curve equation of aquatic plants is:

[0096]

[0097] Where P is the biomass of aquatic plants, r p is the intrinsic growth rate of aquatic plants, k p is the maximum biomass of aquatic plants in the habitat, c d is the shedding function of aquatic plants, Q is the flow or tidal flux, P0 is the initial biomass, k c is the shedding function caused by the tide, and t is the time step in the differentiation. For example, the step size of the water ecology simulation is 1 day.

[0098] The habitat model includes a benthic animal growth model, and step S400 includes:

[0099] The simulated environmental factors are input into the benthic animal growth model, and the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids.

[0100] Based on the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals, the habitat suitability curve for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals is obtained through literature review and / or experimental data;

[0101] Based on the habitat suitability curve of benthic animal growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor of benthic animals;

[0102] According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of benthic animals were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals.

[0103] Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals, the dynamic simulation of benthic animals was carried out using the logistic growth curve equation of benthic animals, and the net growth of benthic animals was analyzed.

[0104] The complex hydrodynamic, sediment, and water environment simulation results are mapped onto a series of rectangular grids of the same size, converting continuous environmental data into a discrete form that is easy to analyze. Environmental factors that have important effects on the growth and reproduction of benthic animals, such as water depth, flow rate, bottom type, water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen level, and pH value, are determined. For each key habitat factor, a relationship curve between it and the suitability of benthic animals is obtained through research.

[0105] The curve is expressed by a mathematical function, and the single habitat factor suitability coefficient g of benthic animals b The calculation formula is: where α y , β y , γ y are the coefficients of benthic animals, y is the habitat factor of benthic animals, and gb The value ranges from 0 to 1, reflecting the degree of survival and reproduction adaptation of benthic animals under specific habitat conditions.

[0106] According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of benthic animals are integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals. The comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals is: Where n is the number of environmental factors;

[0107] HSI b All key factors are considered comprehensively to provide a unified measure of ecological suitability for each grid. The logistic growth curve is then used to describe the growth of biomass, and the natural loss of biomass (due to self-metabolism and predation) is taken into account to simulate the biomass loss process caused by self-metabolism and predation: E B =c b ·B·g b-DO +pr b ·B·g f-tem , where the growth term (G B ) and consumables (E B ) is set taking into account food resources (N), maximum biomass limit (k b ), food density threshold (K h ), its own metabolic rate (c b ), the influence of dissolved oxygen (g b-DO ), predation effect (pr b ) and the effect of temperature on fish predation rate (g f-tem ) and other factors.

[0108] The logistic growth curve equation of benthic animals is:

[0109] where r b is the maximum feeding absorption rate, B is the biomass of benthic animals, k b is the maximum biomass of benthic animals in the habitat, K h is the amount of food source when the feeding rate of benthic animals reaches half of the maximum value, c b is the metabolic rate of benthic animals themselves, g b-DO is the habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals corresponding to dissolved oxygen concentration, pr b is the proportion of benthic animals preyed on by fish, g f-tem is the habitat suitability coefficient of fish and temperature, N is the food source of benthic animals, E P is the aquatic plant decline term, pr pIt is the proportion of aquatic plant decline to the food source of benthic animals.

[0110] The habitat model includes a fish habitat model, and step S400 includes:

[0111] The simulated environmental factors are input into the fish habitat model, and the key habitat factors for fish growth and reproduction are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids;

[0112] Based on the key habitat factors for fish growth and reproduction, obtain the habitat suitability curve for fish growth and reproduction through literature review and / or experimental data;

[0113] Based on the habitat suitability curve for fish growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor for fish;

[0114] According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of fish were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of fish.

[0115] Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of fish, the relative value of fish number is calculated by combining the function of the influence of tidal velocity on fish, the function of the influence of benthic organisms on fish, and the function of the influence of underwater noise on fish;

[0116] The number of fish in the study area was calculated based on the relative value of fish population.

[0117] First, the complex hydrodynamic, sediment, and water environment simulation data are projected onto a rectangular grid of uniform size. Then, the key habitat factors that affect the survival and reproduction of fish are identified, such as water depth, flow rate, bottom type, water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, and noise level, which are the basis for evaluating the quality of fish habitats.

[0118] Through scientific research literature and field surveys, a suitability function is established for each key factor to quantify the preference or tolerance of fish to different environmental conditions. f The function is used to describe this suitability, usually expressed as a value between 0 and 1, which depends on the habitat factor z and the preset parameters (α z , γ z , β z ), the habitat factor z mainly includes variables such as water depth, bottom quality, temperature, dissolved oxygen, etc. Due to the special effects of flow velocity and noise on swimming organisms such as fish, other expressions can be used to measure their effects on fish.

[0119] The single habitat factor suitability coefficient of fish g f for: where α z , γ z , β z are all coefficients of fish, and z is the habitat factor of fish.

[0120] The geometric mean method was used to integrate the suitability scores of all factors to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) for each grid cell. f ). HSI f A high value means the area is more hospitable for fish.

[0121] The comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) of fish f for: Where n is the number of environmental factors.

[0122] A fish habitat model was established, which integrates the influence of multiple factors on fish habitat selection, including flow velocity (f(v)), food resources (f(F B )), underwater noise (f(un)) and comprehensive habitat suitability. These factors are expressed through specific functions and together determine the relative value of the number of fish in a certain area (NM f ). The relative value of fish population is NM f The calculation formula is: NM f =f(v)·f(F B )·f(un)·HSI f , where f(v) is the function of the tidal velocity on fish, f(F B ) is the function of the impact of benthic organisms on fish, and f(un) is the function of the impact of underwater noise on fish.

[0123] Regarding flow velocity (f(v)): Since fish autonomously choose suitable habitats through swimming behavior, the Boltzmann equation is used in the embodiment of the present application to simulate the movement of fish with water flow. The specific form of the equation is as follows: Where i represents the direction, f f is the distribution function of fish in unit volume, which is related to the spatial position (x i )、speed(v i ), time (t), etc., F i is the external force acting on the fish. Assuming that the fish reaches a stable equilibrium state, the distribution function f f It has nothing to do with time, and the relative number of fish per unit volume can be obtained by solving:

[0124]

[0125] Among them, D. ε is the coefficient, ρ is the water density, u fx 、u fy is the speed of the fish swimming in the x and y directions, u x 、u y is the relative velocity difference between the fish and the water flow in the x and y directions, S a is the fish wetted surface area, Ct , C f , C p They are propulsion force, friction force and form drag coefficient respectively.

[0126] About food resources B ), the Logistic equation is used to describe the dependence of fish on food resources. The Logistic equation is: Among them, δ1 and δ2 are coefficients, pr b is the proportion of benthic animals preyed on by fish (%), pr f is the proportion of benthic animals in fish food (%), r f For the feeding absorption efficiency of fish.

[0127] Function f(un) about the effect of underwater noise on fish:

[0128] First, consider the port planning and construction situation, including the planned terminal throughput, terminal grade, and route, obtain the ship tonnage, length, ship number, and navigation route, and calculate the ship number N s : TC is the cargo throughput (10,000 tons / year), which is converted into the throughput scale within the study period T; W is the ship tonnage, 10,000 tons.

[0129] Secondly, calculate the equivalent sound level of a single ship at the prediction point (the reference sound pressure in water is 1μPa):

[0130] L eq,s =L s0 -TL;

[0131]

[0132] L eq,s is the noise radiation source intensity of a single ship at the prediction point, in dB; L s0 is the noise radiation source intensity of the ship, which is related to the ship's tonnage, type, etc., and can be obtained through ship inspection specifications or actual measurements; TL is the sound energy ship loss of sound waves in seawater, dB; r is the horizontal distance from the prediction matrix grid to the ship, in km; σ is the seawater absorption coefficient, in dB / km; k L is the near-field propagation anomaly correction value, in dB; R is the distance parameter, in km; σ T is the shallow sea interface attenuation coefficient, in dB / km; H is the water depth, in m; L is the shallow sea mixed layer depth, in m.

[0133] Then calculate the equivalent sound level L of multiple ships at the prediction point eq,ts :According to the route vector, ship tonnage, ship number and other conditions, the number of ships in the rectangular grid of the study area is obtained.

[0134] Secondly, calculate the equivalent sound levels of multiple ships at the prediction points: Where L eq,ts is the equivalent continuous sound level caused by ship navigation in the prediction matrix grid (at a distance r from the ship) within the time step T, dB; T is the time step, s; N s is the number of ships passing through in T time; t eq is the equivalent time of ship passage, s; l s is the length of the ship, m; v s is the ship's sailing speed, m / s; ω is the coefficient.

[0135] Based on literature or experiments, the relationship curve between typical fish behavior or state and underwater noise is obtained. Please refer to the test results of the sound sensitivity of large yellow croaker in the compilation instructions of the "Guidelines for the Assessment of the Impact of Anthropogenic Underwater Noise on Marine Life". Table 1 shows the reaction of large yellow croaker to noise:

[0136] Table 1

[0137]

[0138]

[0139] Based on the above test, the habitat suitability curve of typical fish affected by noise was obtained, and the suitability was represented by a value between 0 and 1, where 0 represents unsuitable and 1 represents suitable. eq,ts , and obtain the habitat suitability impact function f(un) of typical fish species affected by noise.

[0140] Finally, based on the above model results, by considering the grid area (A j ) and conversion factor (S j ), the relative number of fish on each grid (NM) f ) to absolute quantity (TNM f ), thereby estimating the total number of typical fish in the entire study area. f The calculation formula is A j is the area of ​​the rectangular grid, S j It is the conversion coefficient between relative number and absolute number of fish.

[0141] Step S400: assessing the impact of port shipping development on the aquatic ecosystem based on changes in habitat suitability.

[0142] By establishing habitat suitability models for typical aquatic plants, benthic animals and fish, and taking into account the interactions between organisms (predator-prey relationships), it is possible to predict the changes in the biomass and number of these species over time and space under given environmental conditions.

[0143] Assess the changes in hydrodynamics and water environment caused by port shipping development, which involves the use of hydrological models and environmental impact models to predict changes in water flow, water quality parameters (such as temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen content), etc. before and after port construction and operation.

[0144] Based on the above analysis of the net growth of aquatic plants and benthic animals using the aquatic plant growth model and the net growth of benthic animals using the benthic animal growth model, and the number of fish in the study area using the fish habitat model, the effects of these environmental changes on aquatic plants P, benthic animals B, and suitable fish habitat TNM were calculated. f Specifically, by comparing the habitat suitability before and after the port shipping development, their abundance changes can be obtained: Among them, P1, B1, TNM f1 Represents the abundance of typical aquatic plants, benthic animals, and fish before the development of port shipping; P2, B2, TNM f2 Represents the typical abundance of aquatic plants, benthic animals and fish after the development of port shipping.

[0145] Step S400 includes:

[0146] If the change in habitat suitability is greater than the second threshold, the port shipping development plan will be reconsidered;

[0147] If the change in habitat suitability is between the first threshold and the second threshold, the port shipping development plan will be optimized;

[0148] If the change in habitat suitability is less than the first threshold, the port shipping development plan will be implemented, and the first threshold is smaller than the second threshold.

[0149] The changes in habitat suitability can be used to determine the above-mentioned aquatic plant ΔP, benthic animal ΔB and fish suitable habitat ΔTNM. f By assigning different weights and performing weighted summation, the first threshold value can be set to 30% and the second threshold value can be set to 50%.

[0150] In a possible embodiment, the overall impact of port shipping development on the aquatic ecosystem is determined based on the change in habitat suitability (Δ), and corresponding management recommendations are made accordingly:

[0151] If the change in habitat suitability Δ is greater than 50%, it means that the impact is very significant and the port development plan may need to be reviewed and adjusted.

[0152] If the change Δ in habitat suitability is between 30% and 50%, it indicates that there is a certain impact and the existing plan needs to be optimized to incorporate more ecological protection measures.

[0153] If the change in habitat suitability Δ is less than 30%, the impact will be relatively limited, but specific environmental protection measures during construction still need to be formulated to minimize damage to the ecological environment.

[0154] Compared with the prior art, the embodiments of the present application have the following beneficial effects:

[0155] First, by integrating the hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model with the habitat model, a refined prediction of the impact of port shipping activities is achieved. This method can not only accurately simulate the direct impact of port construction and operation on hydrological characteristics, sediment transport, and water quality, but also further predict the indirect effects of these changes on the suitability of habitats for aquatic plants, benthic animals, fish and other organisms, providing a comprehensive assessment method from the physical environment to the ecosystem level.

[0156] Second, based on the assessment results of habitat suitability changes, this method can provide a scientific basis for port planning and management. By quantitatively analyzing the differences in ecosystems before and after port shipping development (such as changes in biomass and species distribution), decision makers can clearly know which areas or ecological elements are most affected by port activities, and then make decisions on whether to adjust planning and what mitigation measures to take to ensure a balance between economic development and ecological protection.

[0157] Third, timely identification of potential threats to aquatic ecosystems caused by port shipping will help to take protective measures in advance, such as optimizing waterway design to reduce interference with sensitive ecological areas, setting up ecological buffer zones, or implementing ecological restoration projects. This not only protects biodiversity, but also promotes sustainable development in the areas surrounding the port, which is in line with the requirements of ecological civilization construction.

[0158] Fourth, it integrates multi-source data processing and analysis capabilities, and can effectively integrate information from multiple dimensions such as ecological environment status surveys and port shipping data, greatly improving the efficiency and accuracy of data processing, and providing technical support for rapid response to environmental changes and the formulation of adaptive management strategies.

[0159] The following is a prediction system for the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems, which includes:

[0160] Data collection unit, used to conduct an ecological environment status survey and port shipping survey in the study area to obtain basic data and port data for ecological environment simulation;

[0161] An environmental model building unit is used to input the basic data of ecological environment simulation and port data into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environmental model to obtain simulated environmental factors;

[0162] A habitat model construction unit is used to input simulated environmental factors into the constructed habitat model to calculate the changes in habitat suitability;

[0163] Assessment unit used to evaluate the impact of port shipping development on aquatic ecosystems based on changes in habitat suitability.

[0164] The above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any changes or substitutions that can be easily thought of by a person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be based on the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems, characterized in that: The method comprises: Conduct an ecological environment status survey and port shipping survey in the study area to obtain basic data and port data for ecological environment simulation; Input the basic data of ecological environment simulation and port data into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain the simulated environmental factors; The simulated environmental factors were input into the constructed habitat model to calculate the changes in habitat suitability; Assess the impact of port shipping development on aquatic ecosystems based on changes in habitat suitability.

2. The impact prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The steps of inputting the basic data of ecological environment simulation and port data into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain the simulated environmental factors include: Use MIKE and / or Deflt 3D mathematical models to build a hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model; Input the basic data of ecological environment simulation into the hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model to obtain the basic data of the current situation of the study area; The model boundary conditions of the hydrodynamic-sediment-water environment model were changed according to the port data, and then the basic data of the current situation of the study area were input to obtain the simulated environmental factors.

3. The impact prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The habitat model includes an aquatic plant growth model. The steps of calculating the change of habitat suitability based on the habitat model constructed by inputting simulated environmental factors include: The simulated environmental factors are input into the aquatic plant growth model, and the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids; Based on the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants, the habitat suitability curve for the growth and reproduction of aquatic plants is obtained through literature review and / or experimental data; Based on the habitat suitability curve of aquatic plant growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor of aquatic plants; According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of aquatic plants were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of aquatic plants. Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of aquatic plants, the dynamic simulation of aquatic plants was carried out using the Logistic growth curve equation of aquatic plants, and the net growth of aquatic plants was analyzed.

4. The impact prediction method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The single habitat factor suitability coefficient of aquatic plants g p The calculation formula is: where α x , β x and γ x are all coefficients of aquatic plants, and x is the habitat factor of aquatic plants; Comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) of aquatic plants p The calculation formula is: Where n is the number of environmental factors; The logistic growth curve equation of aquatic plants is: P is the biomass of aquatic plants, r p is the intrinsic growth rate of aquatic plants, k p is the maximum biomass of aquatic plants in the habitat, c d is the shedding function of aquatic plants, Q is the flow or tidal flux, P0 is the initial biomass, k c is the shedding function caused by the tidal flow, and t is the time step in the differentiation.

5. The impact prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The habitat model includes a benthic animal growth model. The steps of calculating the change of habitat suitability based on the habitat model constructed by inputting simulated environmental factors include: The simulated environmental factors are input into the benthic animal growth model, and the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids. Based on the key habitat factors for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals, the habitat suitability curve for the growth and reproduction of benthic animals is obtained through literature review and / or experimental data; Based on the habitat suitability curve of benthic animal growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor of benthic animals; According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of benthic animals were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals. Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals, the dynamic simulation of benthic animals was carried out using the logistic growth curve equation of benthic animals, and the net growth of benthic animals was analyzed.

6. The impact prediction method according to claim 5, characterized in that: Suitability coefficient of single habitat factor of benthic animals g b The calculation formula is: where α y , β y , γ y are all coefficients of benthic animals, and y is the habitat factor of benthic animals; Comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) of benthic animals b for: Where n is the number of environmental factors; The logistic growth curve equation of benthic animals is: where r b is the maximum feeding absorption rate, B is the biomass of benthic animals, k b is the maximum biomass of benthic animals in the habitat, K h is the amount of food source when the feeding rate of benthic animals reaches half of the maximum value, c b is the metabolic rate of benthic animals themselves, g b-DO is the habitat suitability coefficient of benthic animals corresponding to dissolved oxygen concentration, pr b is the proportion of benthic animals preyed on by fish, g f-tem is the habitat suitability coefficient of fish and temperature, N is the food source of benthic animals, E P is the decline term of aquatic plants, pr p It is the proportion of the decline of aquatic plants to the food source of benthic animals.

7. The impact prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The habitat model includes a fish habitat model. The steps of calculating the changes in habitat suitability based on the habitat model constructed based on the simulated environmental factors input include: The simulated environmental factors are input into the fish habitat model, and the key habitat factors for fish growth and reproduction are obtained by interpolation and discretization on the divided matrix grids; Based on the key habitat factors for fish growth and reproduction, obtain the habitat suitability curve for fish growth and reproduction through literature review and / or experimental data; Based on the habitat suitability curve for fish growth and reproduction, calculate the suitability coefficient of a single habitat factor for fish; According to the geometric mean method, the single habitat factor suitability coefficients of fish were integrated to obtain the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of fish. Based on the comprehensive habitat suitability coefficient of fish, the relative value of fish population is calculated by combining the function of tidal velocity on fish, the function of food resources on fish and the function of underwater noise on fish. The number of fish in the study area was calculated based on the relative value of fish population.

8. The impact prediction method according to claim 7, characterized in that: The single habitat factor suitability coefficient of fish g f for: where α z , γ z , β z are all coefficients of fish, and z is the habitat factor of fish; The comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) of fish f for: Where n is the number of environmental factors; Relative value of fish population NM f The calculation formula is: NM f =f(v)·f(F B )·f(un)·HSI f , where f(v) is the function of the tidal velocity on fish, f(F B ) is the function of the impact of food resources on fish, and f(un) is the function of the impact of underwater noise on fish; Fish population in the study area TNM f The calculation formula is A j is the area of ​​the rectangular grid, S j It is the conversion coefficient between relative number and absolute number of fish.

9. The impact prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Steps to assess the impact of port and shipping development on aquatic ecosystems based on changes in habitat suitability include: If the change in habitat suitability is greater than the second threshold, the port shipping development plan will be reconsidered; If the change in habitat suitability is between the first threshold and the second threshold, the port shipping development plan will be optimized; If the change in habitat suitability is less than the first threshold, the port shipping development plan will be implemented, and the first threshold is smaller than the second threshold.

10. A system for predicting the impact of port shipping on aquatic ecosystems, characterized in that: The system comprises: Data collection unit, used to conduct an ecological environment status survey and port shipping survey in the study area to obtain basic data and port data for ecological environment simulation; An environmental model building unit is used to input the basic data of ecological environment simulation and port data into the constructed hydrodynamic-sediment-water environmental model to obtain simulated environmental factors; A habitat model construction unit is used to input simulated environmental factors into the constructed habitat model to calculate the changes in habitat suitability; Assessment unit used to evaluate the impact of port shipping development on aquatic ecosystems based on changes in habitat suitability.

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