Mining area ground surface coverage change and subsidence area monitoring system

Abstract

The invention provides a mining area ground surface coverage change and subsidence area monitoring system. The system comprises a rainfall monitoring module, a GPS settlement monitoring module, a communication module and a monitoring center. The rainfall monitoring module is used for collecting mining area rainfall information; the GPS settlement monitoring module is used for acquiring surface displacement information of a crack body; the communication module is used for sending the collected rainfall information and the crack body surface displacement information to a monitoring center; the monitoring center is used for storing and analyzing the data and automatically mapping and displaying the data in an animation manner; the rainfall information of the mining area comprises rainfall rate, hourly rainfall and daily rainfall; the crack body surface displacement information comprises daily average displacement rate, displacement direction and accumulated displacement. By means of the system, real-time collection of the rainfall and the crack body surface displacement of the mining area is achieved, and the safety state of overall operation of the mining area is mastered in real time.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of geological disaster monitoring, and in particular to a mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system. Background Art

[0002] Mountain cracks in some areas of the southern edge of North my country are in an unstable state. At the same time, underground coal mining activities are ongoing in these areas. The deformation of mountain cracks and the stability of the affected areas have uncertain factors. In order to timely understand the deformation law of mountain cracks, predict the possible range and trend of their changes, and promptly notify local residents and pedestrians of emergency avoidance when abnormalities are found, and take corresponding treatment measures in time, the goal of real-time monitoring and early warning of geological disasters, remote transmission of information, and timely release on the Internet is achieved. To ensure economic construction and long-term safety, it is very necessary and significant to establish a long-term monitoring system. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a monitoring system for surface cover changes and subsidence areas in mining areas. By establishing a long-term monitoring system for the mining area, the deformation of mountain cracks is analyzed and studied, the deformation dynamics of mountain cracks are monitored, and their development trends are predicted.

[0004] To achieve the above-mentioned invention object, the present invention provides a mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system, the system comprising: a rainfall monitoring module, a GPS settlement monitoring module, a communication module, and a monitoring center;

[0005] The rainfall monitoring module is used to collect rainfall information in the mining area;

[0006] The GPS settlement monitoring module is used to collect displacement information on the surface of the crack body;

[0007] The communication module is used to send the collected rainfall information and the surface displacement information of the crack body to the monitoring center;

[0008] The monitoring center is used to store and analyze data and automatically display them in graphics and animations;

[0009] The rainfall information of the mining area includes: rainfall rate, hourly rainfall, and daily rainfall; the surface displacement information of the fracture body includes: daily average displacement rate, displacement direction, and cumulative displacement.

[0010] The rainfall monitoring module comprises:

[0011] A capacitive grid rain gauge is installed outdoors in the monitoring area, and the capacitive grid rain gauge is connected to an indoor rain gauge collector via a rain gauge professional cable;

[0012] The capacitive rain gauge uses upper and lower electric valves to control water inlet and outlet, and converts rainfall into signals, which are processed by a single-chip computer and then converted into pulses for output to the rain gauge collection instrument.

[0013] The GPS settlement monitoring module is used to collect the surface displacement information of the fracture body, including:

[0014] Establish a benchmark point and multiple monitoring points within the monitoring area;

[0015] GPS receivers are set up at the reference point and multiple monitoring points, and the changes in the coordinates of the monitoring points are obtained through regular and continuous observation based on the three-dimensional coordinates of the GPS receivers.

[0016] The GPS subsidence monitoring module is provided with lightning protection, specifically including:

[0017] A lightning rod is provided for the GPS receiver to prevent direct lightning strikes, a power supply lightning protector is provided for the power supply at the monitoring point and the reference point, and a signal lightning protector is provided for the signal line at the monitoring point and the reference point;

[0018] The GPS receiver is connected to the GPS receiving antenna via an antenna connecting line. The GPS receiver is installed in a shielding protection box. Both the GPS receiver and the shielding protection box are grounded, and the grounding resistance is less than 10Ω.

[0019] The monitoring center has a built-in early warning module;

[0020] The early warning module is used to determine the rainfall level according to the daily rainfall, and compare the rainfall information of the mining area with the preset three-level rainfall early warning value to determine the early warning level;

[0021] The early warning module is also used to compare the surface displacement information of the crack body with the preset three-level settlement early warning value to determine the settlement early warning level.

[0022] The system further comprises: a power supply module; the power supply module comprises a system power supply unit, a solar power supply unit, a battery unit, and a UPS unit;

[0023] The system power supply unit constructs a main power supply line with three-phase live wires and one-phase neutral wire, wherein one live wire and the neutral wire are used as the main power supply, and the other two live wires are used as the main power supply for fill light illumination. The power supply is provided with a main line voltage stabilizer, and a rear-end voltage stabilizer is provided according to the line length;

[0024] The system power supply unit supplies power to the rainfall monitoring module;

[0025] The solar power supply unit and the battery unit jointly supply power to the GPS settlement monitoring module;

[0026] The system power supply unit and the UPS unit jointly supply power to the monitoring center.

[0027] The monitoring center is used to save and analyze data and automatically display them in graphics animation, including: taking rainfall rate, hourly rainfall, and daily rainfall as parameter data, and building time series forecasting and analysis models based on the ARIMA model;

[0028] The construction of the time series prediction analysis model includes the following steps:

[0029] Perform data preprocessing on each parameter data to fill in the missing values ​​in the data;

[0030] Perform a stationarity test on the data sequence. If it is not stationary, perform a difference operation until the data is stationary.

[0031] Based on the ARIMA model, seasonality, trend and cyclical forecasts are performed on parameter data;

[0032] Generate a prediction curve graph based on time units for each parameter data.

[0033] The monitoring center is used to save and analyze data, automatically display them in graphics and animation, and also includes: constructing a statistical analysis model by observing the slight changes in the entire monitoring area to predict the long-term change trend of the monitoring area;

[0034] The structural statistical analysis model includes: constructing a decision tree model, taking the daily average displacement rate, displacement direction and cumulative displacement as characteristic information of training samples to form a training data set; inputting the surface displacement information of the fracture body collected in real time into the decision tree model to obtain a prediction result.

[0035] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0036] 1. According to the specific characteristics and influencing factors of the mining area distribution area and the impact area, a relatively complete monitoring profile and monitoring network are established to make it a systematic and three-dimensional deformation monitoring system;

[0037] 2. Timely and rapid evaluation of the distribution area of ​​mountain cracks in the mining area and the current status of the affected area, and make predictions and forecasts to minimize the possible hazards of geological disasters;

[0038] 3. Establish a long-term monitoring system to analyze and study the deformation of mountain cracks, accumulate experience for similar projects, and enrich theories. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0039] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only preferred embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0040] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the overall structure of a mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0041] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the overall structure of another mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0042] The principles and features of the present invention are described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The enumerated embodiments are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0043] Reference Figure 1 This embodiment provides a schematic diagram of the overall structure of a mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system. This embodiment can be applied to monitoring the deformation of mountain cracks and the stability of the affected area. Figure 1 As shown, the system specifically includes: a rainfall monitoring module 10, a GPS settlement monitoring module 20, a communication module 30, and a monitoring center 40.

[0044] The rainfall monitoring module 10 is used to collect rainfall information in the mining area, and the rainfall information in the mining area includes: rainfall rate, hourly rainfall, and daily rainfall.

[0045] Preferably, a capacitive grid rain gauge is installed outdoors in the monitoring area, and the capacitive grid rain gauge is connected to an indoor rain gauge collector via a rain gauge professional cable;

[0046] The capacitive rain gauge uses upper and lower electric valves to control water inlet and outlet, and converts rainfall into signals, which are processed by a single-chip microcomputer and then converted into pulses for output to the rain gauge collection instrument.

[0047] It should be noted that due to the large range of mountain cracks in the mining area, atmospheric precipitation, surface water and some groundwater entering the mountain cracks will inevitably lead to a sudden increase in the instantaneous hydrostatic pressure in the rock mass. At the same time, the intensity of the rock layer affected by water will also be reduced. These are also factors that induce the occurrence of mountain cracks. Therefore, it is essential to collect rainfall in the monitoring area.

[0048] Specifically, the grid rain gauge should be placed in open and sheltered places in the mountain crack area and on the top of the mountain. Preferably, it should be placed every 20 km. 2 A grid rain gauge is arranged in the catchment area.

[0049] The advantages of the capacitive rain gauge are:

[0050] 1) High measurement accuracy, convenient operation and good reliability. The resolution reaches 0.01mm level;

[0051] 2) It allows the measurement of heavy rainfall, and compared with other rain gauges, it avoids the drawbacks of serious measurement inaccuracy and has a small measurement error;

[0052] 3) Easy to install and maintain. The capacitive rain gauge converts rainfall into a signal, processes it through a single-chip microcomputer, and then converts it into a pulse output. Each pulse output represents 0.1 mm of rainfall.

[0053] The GPS settlement monitoring module 20 is used to collect the surface displacement information of the fracture body, and the surface displacement information of the fracture body includes: daily average displacement rate, displacement direction, and cumulative displacement.

[0054] Preferably, a reference point and a plurality of monitoring points are established within the monitoring area;

[0055] GPS receivers are set up at the benchmark point and multiple monitoring points. Based on the three-dimensional coordinates of the GPS receivers, the change in the coordinates of the monitoring points is obtained through regular and continuous observation.

[0056] Specifically, when GPS is used for deformation monitoring, the monitoring area is generally not very large, and the changes in the surface cover and collapse area in the monitoring area are small changes. Therefore, it is necessary to establish dense monitoring points in representative areas of the monitoring area, and establish reference points at long-distance suitable and stable locations for monitoring. GPS receivers are set up at the reference points and monitoring points, and the changes in the coordinates (or baselines) of the monitoring points are obtained through regular and continuous observation based on the high-precision known three-dimensional coordinates at the reference points.

[0057] The advantages of using GPS are:

[0058] 1) Compared with ordinary total stations or other monitoring methods, GPS no longer requires more manpower to complete observation operations. Its internal structure and optical properties are not affected by rain and snow, and it can complete measurement operations normally at night. GPS has the characteristics of all-weather operation and can replace traditional measurement operations;

[0059] 2) GPS receivers do not need to have line of sight with each other, and the grid does not require a good geometric structure. The point selection is more flexible, the observation error will not be accumulated, and the observation accuracy of each monitoring point is evenly distributed;

[0060] 3) High positioning accuracy, with plane accuracy better than ±3mm and vertical accuracy better than ±5mm. It responds quickly and can achieve kilometer-level rapid positioning. The initial positioning observation time only takes a few minutes.

[0061] It should be noted that the amount of settlement in the mining area and its rate of change are the direct basis for judging landslides.

[0062] The GPS settlement monitoring module 20 can not only be used for online safety monitoring of landslide GPS settlement, but can also be widely used in health monitoring of high slopes, seaside dams, ports, docks, mines, reservoirs and dams, large bridges and venues, and high-rise buildings.

[0063] Furthermore, the GPS settlement monitoring module 20 is provided with lightning protection, which specifically includes:

[0064] A lightning rod is installed for the GPS receiver to prevent direct lightning strikes, a power supply lightning protector is installed for the power supply at the monitoring point and the reference point, and a signal lightning protector is installed for the signal line at the monitoring point and the reference point;

[0065] The GPS receiver is connected to the GPS receiving antenna through an antenna connecting line. The GPS receiver is installed in a shielding protection box. Both the GPS receiver and the shielding protection box are grounded, and the grounding resistance is less than 10Ω.

[0066] It should be noted that lightning protection includes protection against direct lightning and protection against inductive lightning. Protection against direct lightning is mainly achieved by pre-discharge lightning rods and effective grounding; protection against inductive lightning includes power supply lightning protection and signal lightning protection, among which power supply lightning protection is mainly achieved by AC / DC isolation, power supply lightning arrester and effective grounding, while signal lightning protection is mainly achieved by signal photoelectric isolation and signal lightning arrester.

[0067] The communication module 30 is used to send the collected rainfall information and the surface displacement information of the crack body to the monitoring center 40 .

[0068] Specifically, a simple General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) communication method may be used, or a wireless bridge, optical fiber or other communication method may be used.

[0069] The rainfall monitoring module 10 is composed of a capacitive rain gauge and a rain gauge collector. The capacitive rain gauge collects rainfall information in the mining area and transmits data with the indoor rain gauge collector through a professional rain gauge cable. The professional rain gauge cable is used for both power supply and communication. The rain gauge collector then establishes communication with the server through a professional serial port line, and finally the server establishes communication with the monitoring center 40.

[0070] The GPS settlement monitoring module 20 is composed of a GPS receiver and a GPS receiving antenna. The GPS receiving antenna collects rainfall information in the mining area and transmits data with the GPS receiver through an antenna connection line. The GPS receiver establishes communication with the monitoring center 40 through GPRS.

[0071] The GPS receiving antenna can also be equipped with an RS232 data communication interface, through which external devices such as meteorological instruments, inclinometers, rain gauges, thermometers, etc. can be connected to realize communication between the GPS settlement monitoring module 20 and the rainfall monitoring module 10. The GPS receiving antenna also supports RJ45 / WIFI, Bluetooth, GPRS / CDMA and other communication methods.

[0072] The monitoring center 40 has a built-in early warning module 401 .

[0073] Optionally, the early warning module 401 is used to determine the rainfall level according to the daily rainfall, and compare the rainfall information of the mining area with the preset three-level rainfall early warning value to determine the early warning level;

[0074] Optionally, the early warning module 401 is further used to compare the surface displacement information of the crack body with the preset three-level settlement early warning value to determine the settlement early warning level.

[0075] Specifically, the recommended warning design for rainfall based on rainfall levels is as follows:

[0076] 1. Level 1 warning value: rainfall rate 1.0 mm / min, hourly rainfall 15 mm, daily rainfall 50 mm.

[0077] 2. Level 2 warning value: rainfall rate 2.0 mm / min, hourly rainfall 30 mm, daily rainfall 100 mm.

[0078] 3. Level 3 warning value: rainfall rate 4.0 mm / min, hourly rainfall 60 mm, daily rainfall 200 mm.

[0079] The preset three-level settlement warning value is designed as follows:

[0080] 1. Level 1 warning value: The average daily displacement rate in the horizontal direction exceeds 1mm / d for 5 consecutive days and the displacement direction is basically consistent; the cumulative displacement in 5 days exceeds 6mm, and the average daily displacement rate during the period exceeds 0.5mm / d and the direction is consistent and no convergence is seen. The vertical direction is controlled at twice the value of the horizontal direction.

[0081] 2. Level 2 warning value: The average daily displacement rate in the horizontal direction exceeds 1.5mm / d for 5 consecutive days and the displacement direction is basically consistent; the cumulative displacement in 5 days exceeds 9mm, and the average daily displacement rate during the period exceeds 0.8mm / d and the direction is consistent and no convergence is seen. The vertical direction is controlled at twice the value of the horizontal direction.

[0082] 3. Level 3 warning value: The average daily displacement rate in the horizontal direction exceeds 2mm / d for 5 consecutive days and the displacement direction is basically consistent; the cumulative displacement in 5 days exceeds 15mm, and the average daily displacement rate during the period exceeds 1mm / d and the direction is consistent and no convergence is seen. The vertical direction is controlled at twice the value of the horizontal direction.

[0083] After the monitoring system runs stably, the actual monitoring data can be reported to the original design unit and the warning value can be recalculated and optimized.

[0084] Once an emergency abnormal situation occurs (such as heavy rain, abnormal internal deformation of mountain cracks, settlement displacement of mountain cracks or displacement change rate exceeding the warning value, etc.), the system can issue early warning information in time (including sound alarm, system animation flashing alarm, monitoring large screen alarm prompt, relevant management personnel and supervisors mobile phone text messages / emails, etc.).

[0085] Figure 2 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the overall structure of another mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 As shown, it is Figure 1 In addition, Figure 1 On the original basis, the system further includes: a power supply module 50.

[0086] The power supply module 50 includes a system power supply unit, a solar power supply unit, a battery unit, and a UPS unit;

[0087] The system power supply unit constructs a main power supply line with three-phase live wire and one-phase neutral wire. One live wire and the neutral wire are used as the main power supply, and the other two live wires are used as the main power supply for fill-in lighting. The power supply sets a main line voltage regulator, and the back-end voltage regulator is set according to the line length;

[0088] The system power supply unit supplies power to the rainfall monitoring module;

[0089] The solar power supply unit and the battery unit jointly supply power to the GPS settlement monitoring module;

[0090] The system power supply unit and UPS unit jointly provide power for the monitoring center.

[0091] The monitoring center 40 is used to store and analyze the data and automatically display the data in the form of graphics and animation.

[0092] Preferably, the data is saved and analyzed, and automatically displayed as an animated graph, including: using rainfall rate, hourly rainfall, and daily rainfall as parameter data, and constructing time series forecasting and analysis models respectively according to the ARIMA model;

[0093] Building a time series forecasting analysis model includes the following steps:

[0094] Perform data preprocessing on each parameter data to fill in the missing values ​​in the data;

[0095] Perform a stationarity test on the data sequence. If it is not stationary, perform a difference operation until the data is stationary.

[0096] Based on the ARIMA model, seasonality, trend and cyclical forecasts are performed on parameter data;

[0097] Generate a prediction curve graph based on time units for each parameter data.

[0098] Specifically, an ARIMA model is established based on the rainfall information in the mining area to predict the rainfall rate, hourly rainfall, and daily rainfall in the next week. The rainfall rate, hourly rainfall, and daily rainfall data are sorted out. If there are null values, historical data are queried to fill them. Stationarity means that the distribution of data does not change when it is translated over time. Difference is the process of converting non-stationary data into stationary data, eliminating changes in the level of the time series as well as trends and seasonality, thereby stabilizing the average value of the time series.

[0099] After the data is stable, a white noise test is performed. White noise refers to a zero mean constant variance random stable sequence. If the sequence is a white noise sequence, the autocorrelation coefficient (AFC) and partial autocorrelation coefficient (PAFC) are calculated.

[0100] The ARIMA model needs to determine the autoregressive lag p, difference d, and error lag q. The autoregressive lag p value is obtained through the partial autocorrelation coefficient (PAFC), the error lag q is obtained through the autocorrelation coefficient (AFC), and the difference d is obtained based on the stationarity test after the difference.

[0101] Seasonal prediction refers to whether there is similarity in the distance from the peak value to the next peak value and from the valley value to the next valley value of the data; trend prediction refers to the fluctuation of the data, whether there is an obvious upward or downward trend; cyclical prediction refers to whether the fluctuation of the data is affected by other non-fixed periodic factors in addition to seasonality. After the model is built, it is also necessary to establish a training set and a test set, and train the model on the training set.

[0102] Preferably, the data is saved and analyzed, and automatically displayed in the form of an animation, and further includes: constructing a statistical analysis model by observing the slight changes in the entire monitoring area to predict the long-term change trend of the monitoring area;

[0103] The structural statistical analysis model includes: constructing a decision tree model, taking the daily average displacement rate, displacement direction and cumulative displacement as characteristic information of training samples to form a training data set; inputting the surface displacement information of the fracture body collected in real time into the decision tree model to obtain a prediction result.

[0104] Specifically, the decision tree model uses a tree data structure to display decision rules and classification results. Its focus is to transform seemingly disordered and messy known data into a tree model that can predict unknown data. Each path from the root node (the attribute that contributes the most to the final classification result) to the leaf node (the final classification result) represents a decision rule. The surface displacement information of the crack body is used as the root node, and the state of the monitoring area is used as the leaf node to determine whether the state of the monitoring area under different root nodes is safe or there are hidden dangers such as landslides, mudslides, and collapses.

[0105] The embodiment of the present invention collects rainfall information and surface displacement information of the crack body in the mining area to form a three-dimensional monitoring network, thereby monitoring the surface cover changes and subsidence areas in the mining area, and making predictions and forecasts on their development trends while monitoring the dynamic changes of mountain cracks.

[0106] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system, characterized in that: The system includes: a rainfall monitoring module, a GPS settlement monitoring module, a communication module, and a monitoring center; The rainfall monitoring module is used to collect rainfall information in the mining area; The GPS settlement monitoring module is used to collect displacement information on the surface of the crack body; The communication module is used to send the collected rainfall information and the surface displacement information of the crack body to the monitoring center; The monitoring center is used to store and analyze data and automatically display them in graphics and animations; The rainfall information of the mining area includes: rainfall rate, hourly rainfall, and daily rainfall; the surface displacement information of the fracture body includes: daily average displacement rate, displacement direction, and cumulative displacement.

2. A mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The rainfall monitoring module comprises: An outdoor capacitive grid rain gauge installed in the monitoring area, wherein the capacitive grid rain gauge is connected to an indoor rain gauge collector via a rain gauge professional cable; The capacitive rain gauge uses upper and lower electric valves to control water inlet and outlet, and converts rainfall into signals, which are processed by a single-chip computer and then converted into pulses for output to the rain gauge collection instrument.

3. A mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The GPS settlement monitoring module is used to collect the surface displacement information of the fracture body, including: Establish a benchmark point and multiple monitoring points within the monitoring area; GPS receivers are set up at the reference point, multiple monitoring points and reference points, and the change in the coordinates of the monitoring points is obtained through regular and continuous observation based on the three-dimensional coordinates of the GPS receiver.

4. A mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system according to claim 3, characterized in that: The GPS subsidence monitoring module is provided with lightning protection, specifically including: A lightning rod is provided for the GPS receiver to prevent direct lightning strikes, a power supply lightning protector is provided for the power supply at the monitoring point and the reference point, and a signal lightning protector is provided for the signal line at the monitoring point and the reference point; The GPS receiver is connected to the GPS receiving antenna via an antenna connecting line. The GPS receiver is installed in a shielding protection box. Both the GPS receiver and the shielding protection box are grounded, and the grounding resistance is less than 10Ω.

5. A mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The monitoring center has a built-in early warning module; The early warning module is used to determine the rainfall level according to the daily rainfall, and compare the rainfall information of the mining area with the preset three-level rainfall early warning value to determine the early warning level; The early warning module is also used to compare the surface displacement information of the crack body with the preset three-level settlement early warning value to determine the settlement early warning level.

6. A mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The system further comprises: a power supply module; the power supply module comprises a system power supply unit, a solar power supply unit, a battery unit, and a UPS unit; The system power supply unit constructs a main power supply line with three-phase live wires and one-phase neutral wire, wherein one live wire and the neutral wire are used as the main power supply, and the other two live wires are used as the main power supply for fill light illumination. The power supply is provided with a main line voltage stabilizer, and a rear-end voltage stabilizer is provided according to the line length; The system power supply unit supplies power to the rainfall monitoring module; The solar power supply unit and the battery unit jointly supply power to the GPS settlement monitoring module; The system power supply unit and the UPS unit jointly supply power to the monitoring center.

7. A mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The monitoring center is used to save and analyze data and automatically display them in graphics animation, including: taking rainfall rate, hourly rainfall, and daily rainfall as parameter data, and building time series forecasting and analysis models based on the ARIMA model; The construction of the time series prediction analysis model includes the following steps: Perform data preprocessing on each parameter data to fill in the missing values ​​in the data; Perform a stationarity test on the data sequence. If it is not stationary, perform a difference operation until the data is stationary. Based on the ARIMA model, seasonality, trend and cyclical forecasts are performed on parameter data; Generate a prediction curve graph based on time units for each parameter data.

8. A mining area surface cover change and subsidence area monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The monitoring center is used to save and analyze data, automatically display them in graphics and animation, and also includes: constructing a statistical analysis model by observing the slight changes in the entire monitoring area to predict the long-term change trend of the monitoring area; The structural statistical analysis model includes: constructing a decision tree model, taking the daily average displacement rate, displacement direction and cumulative displacement as characteristic information of training samples to form a training data set; inputting the surface displacement information of the fracture body collected in real time into the decision tree model to obtain a prediction result.

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