Power transmission line fault early warning method and system based on forest fire spread extrapolation

Abstract

The invention discloses a power transmission line fault early warning method and system based on forest fire spread extrapolation. The method comprises the steps that static parameters are acquired through a polar orbit satellite, and real-time parameters are acquired through a synchronous satellite; fire point identification is carried out based on the static parameters and the real-time parameters, forest fire spread extrapolation prediction is carried out in combination with a forest fire spread extrapolation prediction model, and a fire point spread factor, an earth surface vegetation factor and a rainfall factor are generated; calculating the comprehensive tripping probability of the power transmission line according to the fire point spreading factor, the surface vegetation factor, the rainfall factor and the air gap breakdown probability; and generating a corresponding relation between the fault rate and the fault early warning of the power transmission line based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the power transmission line, and performing identification in the warning section according to the grading threshold value of the fault rate and the early warning grade color. The method provides guarantee for improving the safe operation level and power supply reliability of a power transmission and distribution line, and provides auxiliary decisions for forest fire disaster prevention and control in the power industry.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power system safety and stability early warning, and in particular to a power transmission line fault early warning method and system based on wildfire spread extrapolation. Background Art

[0002] In densely vegetated forests and mountainous areas, a large number of transmission lines pass through them. Once a wildfire occurs, it may not only cause short circuits and disconnections in the transmission lines, but may also cause power outages on a larger scale, seriously affecting the operational reliability of the power grid. Therefore, improving wildfire monitoring and early warning technologies and establishing an efficient early warning system for transmission line faults have become an urgent task facing the power industry.

[0003] At present, wildfire monitoring and early warning technologies mainly include ground sensors, drone inspections, satellite remote sensing and other means. Among them, satellite remote sensing technology is widely used due to its wide coverage and high monitoring frequency. Polar-orbiting satellites have high spatial resolution and can provide detailed ground images, but their repeated observation frequency of the same location is low, and real-time monitoring cannot be achieved. Although synchronous satellites can provide nearly real-time monitoring data, their spatial resolution is relatively low and they are prone to underreporting. Therefore, it is difficult for a single satellite data source to fully and accurately capture the evolution trend of wildfires, especially under complex terrain and changeable meteorological conditions. The spread speed and direction of wildfires are highly uncertain, which places higher requirements on the accuracy and reliability of the early warning system.

[0004] In order to solve the above problems, it is urgent to develop a wildfire spread extrapolation prediction method based on the spatiotemporal complementarity of multi-source satellites, organically combine fire point monitoring with wildfire spread extrapolation prediction technology, improve the refinement level of the early warning system, and ensure that potential transmission line failures can be discovered and warned in time in the initial stage of wildfires. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the above existing problems, the present invention is proposed.

[0006] Therefore, the present invention provides a power transmission line fault warning method and system based on wildfire spread extrapolation, with the purpose of establishing a wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model based on multi-source satellite spatiotemporal complementarity, comprehensively considering the probability of wildfire-induced transmission line failures to establish a transmission line wildfire tripping risk assessment model, and conducting a safety risk assessment of transmission line failures caused by wildfires, so as to provide guarantees for improving the safe operation level and power supply reliability of transmission and distribution lines, and provide auxiliary decision-making for the power industry to prevent and control wildfire disasters.

[0007] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0008] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a power transmission line fault warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation, comprising: obtaining static parameters through polar-orbiting satellites and obtaining real-time parameters through synchronous satellites; identifying fire points based on the static parameters and real-time parameters, and performing wildfire spread extrapolation prediction in combination with a wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to generate fire point spread factors, surface vegetation factors and rainfall factors; calculating the comprehensive tripping probability of the power transmission line based on the fire point spread factor, surface vegetation factor and rainfall factor and the air gap breakdown probability; generating a corresponding relationship between the transmission line failure rate and the fault warning based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, and marking it in the alarm section according to the grading threshold value of the failure rate and the warning level color.

[0009] As a preferred solution of the power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation described in the present invention, the acquisition of static parameters through polar orbit satellites and the acquisition of real-time parameters through synchronous satellites include:

[0010] Acquire original images through polar-orbit satellites and synchronous satellites respectively, and pre-process the original images;

[0011] Extracting static parameters and real-time parameters according to the preprocessed image data;

[0012] Divide the grid and establish the coordinate system according to the GIS data;

[0013] Using the coordinate system, obtaining the distribution information of the static parameters and the real-time parameters in the grid, and generating a spatial distribution diagram at time t;

[0014] The data is updated in every polar orbit satellite period ΔT and synchronous satellite period Δt.

[0015] As a preferred solution of the power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation described in the present invention, the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction based on the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model includes:

[0016] Identify hotspots by combining polar-orbiting and geostationary satellite data at the beginning of the polar-orbiting satellite cycle;

[0017] For each GIS data grid, the reaction intensity per unit area I is obtained according to the static parameters obtained by the polar orbit satellite. r (x, y, t) and slope θ(x, y), and the wind speed v is obtained according to the real-time parameters obtained by the synchronous satellite w (x, y, t), and then combine the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to obtain the wildfire spread speed and direction;

[0018] The time step is set to τ, and the position of the fire point is updated according to the wildfire spreading speed and direction in each time step by a numerical method, and the updated fire point position is projected into the grid to generate a new fire point distribution map;

[0019] Update the real-time data at the beginning of each synchronous satellite cycle and adjust the wind speed correction factor φ w (v w ), when a new synchronous satellite cycle is restarted, the current forecast window width is divided into cycles Δt, and the prediction is extrapolated step by step;

[0020] The fuel parameters are updated at the beginning of each polar orbit satellite cycle, and the wildfire spread extrapolation model is calibrated to correct the spread prediction error of the previous polar orbit satellite cycle.

[0021] As a preferred solution of the power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation described in the present invention, the generation of fire point spread factor, surface vegetation factor and rainfall factor includes:

[0022] The fire spread factor D is generated based on the fire spread boundary, fire spread speed and geostationary satellite update frequency obtained by the fire spread extrapolation prediction model. f ;

[0023] Generate the surface vegetation factor D according to the vegetation type around the fire point p , wherein the surrounding environment of the fire point is divided into a combustible area and a non-combustible area, the combustible area is divided into forests and grasslands, and the non-combustible area is divided into deserts and rivers;

[0024] Generate the rainfall factor D according to the rainfall on that day r .

[0025] As a preferred solution of the power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation described in the present invention, the calculation of the air gap breakdown probability includes:

[0026] Correction factor K by air density d , Air humidity correction factor K h and the particle correction factor K p Define the correction factor K t Considering the influence of altitude on the external insulation discharge voltage, the breakdown voltage of the equipment's external insulation should be multiplied by the altitude correction factor K. a ;

[0027] 50% probability breakdown voltage U′ in wildfire environment 50％ And 50% probability breakdown voltage U under standard atmospheric conditions 50％ The relationship is:

[0028] U′50％ =K t K a U 50％

[0029] The air gap breakdown voltage in a wildfire environment also follows a normal distribution. The probability of air gap breakdown calculated by the normal distribution function is:

[0030]

[0031] As a preferred solution of the power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation described in the present invention, wherein: the calculation of the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line includes:

[0032] Taking all influencing factors into consideration, the calculation of the comprehensive tripping probability P of the transmission line is:

[0033] P=P(U)·D f ·D p ·D r .

[0034] As a preferred solution of the power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation described in the present invention, it also includes:

[0035] Based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, a corresponding relationship between the transmission line failure rate and the fault warning is generated, and the transmission line failure rate is subjected to coarse-grained processing according to the grading threshold value;

[0036] Setting an alarm section, marking the alarm section according to the grading threshold value of the transmission line failure rate and the color of the warning level;

[0037] The fire points are matched to the corresponding warning sections based on the extrapolated prediction of the fire points and fire spread detected by satellite monitoring.

[0038] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a power transmission line fault early warning system based on wildfire spread extrapolation, comprising:

[0039] A data acquisition module is used to obtain static parameters of polar orbit satellites and real-time parameters of synchronous satellites;

[0040] A wildfire spread prediction module is used to identify fire points based on the static parameters and real-time parameters, and to perform wildfire spread extrapolation prediction in combination with a wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to generate fire point spread factors, surface vegetation factors, and rainfall factors;

[0041] A failure rate calculation module, used to calculate the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line according to the fire spread factor, the surface vegetation factor and the rainfall factor and the air gap breakdown probability;

[0042] The line fault warning module is used to generate the corresponding relationship between the transmission line failure rate and the fault warning based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, and mark it in the alarm section according to the grading threshold value of the fault rate and the warning level color.

[0043] In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computing device, comprising:

[0044] Memory and processor;

[0045] The memory is used to store computer executable instructions, and the processor is used to execute the computer executable instructions. When the computer executable instructions are executed by the processor, the steps of the power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation are implemented.

[0046] In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the power transmission line fault warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation.

[0047] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: the present invention provides a power transmission line fault warning method and system based on wildfire spread extrapolation, by establishing a wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model based on multi-source satellite spatiotemporal complementarity, and comprehensively considering the probability of wildfire-induced transmission line failures to establish a transmission line wildfire tripping risk assessment model, and conducts a safety risk assessment of transmission line failures caused by wildfires, thereby providing a guarantee for improving the safe operation level and power supply reliability of transmission and distribution lines, and providing auxiliary decision-making for the power industry to prevent and control wildfire disasters. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the accompanying drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other accompanying drawings can be obtained based on these accompanying drawings without paying creative work.

[0049] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the overall process logic of a power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0050] Figure 2 This is a fault warning flow chart of a power transmission line fault warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0051] In order to make the above-mentioned purposes, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings of the specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary persons in the art without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0052] Example 1

[0053] Reference Figure 1 and Figure 2 As an embodiment of the present invention, a power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation is provided, such as Figure 1 The specific steps shown include:

[0054] S100: Obtain static parameters through polar orbit satellites and real-time parameters through synchronous satellites;

[0055] S200: Fire point identification is performed based on static parameters and real-time parameters, and wildfire spread extrapolation prediction is performed in combination with the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to generate fire point spread factors, surface vegetation factors and rainfall factors;

[0056] S300: Calculate the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line based on the fire spread factor, surface vegetation factor, rainfall factor and air gap breakdown probability;

[0057] S400: Generate a corresponding relationship between the transmission line failure rate and the fault warning based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, and mark it in the alarm section according to the classification threshold value of the failure rate and the warning level color.

[0058] It should be noted that the present invention provides a power transmission line fault warning method and system based on wildfire spread extrapolation. By establishing a wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model based on multi-source satellite spatiotemporal complementarity, a transmission line wildfire tripping risk assessment model is established by comprehensively considering the probability of wildfire-induced transmission line failures. A safety risk assessment of transmission line failures caused by wildfires is performed, thereby providing a guarantee for improving the safe operation level and power supply reliability of transmission and distribution lines, and providing auxiliary decision-making for the power industry to prevent and control wildfire disasters.

[0059] In the embodiment of the present application, the above step S100 includes the following sub-steps A1-A4;

[0060] In A1: original images are obtained through polar-orbiting satellites and synchronous satellites, and pre-processed by geometric correction, radiation correction, and cloud removal to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the acquired data;

[0061] In A2: static parameters and real-time parameters are extracted based on the preprocessed image data, where the static parameters include the type and distribution of combustibles and terrain information (parameters such as ground height, slope and aspect), and the real-time parameters include wind speed, wind direction, temperature and humidity;

[0062] In A3: Divide the grid according to the GIS data and establish a coordinate system, use the coordinate system to obtain the distribution information of static parameters and real-time parameters in the grid, and generate a spatial distribution map at time t;

[0063] Specifically, the coordinate system is used to obtain the information of combustible material distribution and terrain, which are expressed as C(x, y) and D(x, y), respectively; the coordinate system is used to obtain the distribution information of wind speed, wind direction, temperature and humidity in the grid, which are expressed as v w (x,y,t),θ w (x,y,t), T(x,y,t) and H(x,y,t);

[0064] In A4: the data is updated in every polar satellite cycle ΔT and synchronous satellite cycle Δt.

[0065] It should be noted that geostationary satellites can observe the same location in real time and continuously, so they can quickly detect the occurrence and development of fires. Application: Detect surface temperature changes through infrared sensors, identify fire hotspots, and monitor the occurrence and spread of wildfires in real time. Monitor the spread of smoke produced by wildfires and provide data for air quality assessment and health impacts. Provide continuous weather data, such as wind speed, humidity and temperature, which are important factors affecting the spread of wildfires. Advantages: Ability to provide observation data over a large area in a very short time, which is very suitable for rapid response to fires.

[0066] It should be noted that polar-orbiting satellites capture detailed images of fire areas with high spatial resolution, providing fine data that is difficult to achieve with geostationary satellites. Application: Use multispectral and infrared imaging to monitor the location of fire hotspots, the range of fire lines, and the intensity of fires. Combine vegetation indices (such as NDVI) to assess the extent of damage to vegetation caused by wildfires. Obtain high-resolution terrain and landform data to provide a basis for establishing a more refined wildfire spread model. Advantages: Able to provide precise ground detail data, suitable for modeling and evaluation of wildfire spread.

[0067] In the embodiment of the present application, the above step S200 is as follows Figure 2 The method includes the following sub-steps B1-B3;

[0068] In B1: Fire point identification based on static parameters and real-time parameters;

[0069] In B2: extrapolating the wildfire spread prediction model to perform wildfire spread extrapolation prediction;

[0070] In B3: generate fire spread factor, surface vegetation factor and rainfall factor;

[0071] In a feasible implementation, the steps of identifying fire points based on static parameters and real-time parameters include: acquiring high-precision image data at the beginning of a polar orbit satellite cycle, and acquiring real-time image data from a synchronous satellite; performing atmospheric correction, geometric correction, radiation correction and other operations on the image data to eliminate noise and errors, and extracting the required spectral channels; using an adaptive threshold method or a machine learning method to identify fire points, and realizing rapid and accurate monitoring of fire points; determining the position of the identified high-temperature abnormal pixels in a grid divided according to GIS, and performing overlay analysis with other spatial data;

[0072] It should be noted that, since geostationary satellites have the ability to monitor over a large area, the fire sites can be updated directly based on the fire data obtained by geostationary satellites for fire points that can be observed by geostationary satellites. However, since the accuracy of geostationary satellites is lower than that of polar-orbiting satellites, there will be missed data, and polar-orbiting satellites have higher resolutions, which can find most of the data missed by geostationary satellites, but the update time of polar-orbiting satellites is too long. Therefore, for those fire point data that cannot be detected by geostationary satellites, the Rothermel fire spread model is used to predict the fire points, and finally the fire point data is updated at the beginning of the next polar-orbiting satellite operation cycle.

[0073] It should be noted that the Rothermel fire spread model is used as the basis to combine the data of synchronous satellites and polar orbit satellites to predict the spread of fire points. The Rothermel model is used to calculate the spread speed of flames on the horizontal plane. The spread speed is affected by fuel type, terrain slope, wind speed and humidity. The formula for the flame spread speed is as follows:

[0074]

[0075] Where R is the flame spread speed, I r is the reaction intensity per unit area, i.e. the energy released by fuel combustion, ξ is the effective wind speed factor of the fuel, φ w is the correction factor for wind speed, which can be obtained by fitting the wind speed and wind direction information obtained by synchronous satellites, φ s is the slope correction factor, which can be obtained by fitting the terrain data obtained by the polar-orbiting satellite, ρ b is the apparent density of the fuel, ε is the thermal efficiency of the fuel, Q ig The ignition heat of the fuel can be estimated by the fuel type obtained by polar-orbiting satellites.

[0076] In a feasible implementation, performing wildfire spread extrapolation prediction in combination with the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model includes:

[0077] At the beginning of the polar orbit satellite cycle, the fire point is identified by combining the data of polar orbit satellite and synchronous satellite. At the same time, the GIS data is divided into grids, and each grid is represented by the coordinates (x, y) of its center point. When the fire line spreads through the center point, the grid represented by it is considered to have fire.

[0078] For each GIS data grid, the reaction intensity per unit area I is obtained based on the static parameters obtained by the polar-orbiting satellite. r (x, y, t) and slope θ(x, y), and the wind speed v is obtained based on the real-time parameters obtained by the synchronous satellite w (x, y, t), and then combined with the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to obtain the wildfire spread speed and direction, the formula is expressed as:

[0079]

[0080] The time step is set to τ, and the position of the fire point is updated in each time step according to the speed and direction of the wildfire spread by numerical method. The formula is expressed as:

[0081]

[0082] Projecting the updated fire point locations onto the grid to generate a new fire point distribution map;

[0083] Update the real-time data at the beginning of each synchronous satellite cycle and adjust the wind speed correction factor φ w (v w ), when a new synchronous satellite cycle is restarted, the current forecast window width is divided into cycles Δt, and the prediction is extrapolated step by step;

[0084] The fuel parameters are updated at the beginning of each polar orbit satellite cycle, and the wildfire spread extrapolation model is calibrated to correct the spread prediction error of the previous polar orbit satellite cycle.

[0085] In a feasible implementation, the probability of a wildfire occurring in a transmission line area and causing a line failure is related to the distance between the fire point and the line, the rainfall, the flammability of vegetation, and the probability of a wildfire causing a transmission line failure;

[0086] Specifically, historical operating experience shows that fire points more than 3 km away from overhead transmission lines generally do not affect the stable operation of transmission lines. The fire spread boundary, fire spread speed and geostationary satellite update frequency obtained by the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model are used to generate the fire spread factor D. f , the formula is:

[0087]

[0088] Where L represents the initial distance between the fire point and the tower, V represents the fire spread speed, and Δt represents the update frequency of the geostationary satellite;

[0089] Specifically, the spread of fire is related to the vegetation type around the thermal power plant. The environment around the fire point is divided into combustible areas and non-combustible areas. The combustible areas are divided into forests and grasslands, and the combustible areas are divided into deserts and rivers. The surface vegetation factor D p According to its type, the selection is shown in Table 1;

[0090] Table 1: Vegetation types.

[0091] Vegetation Type River grassland shrub desert forest <![CDATA[D p ]]> 0 1 1 0 1

[0092] Specifically, the generation and spread of wildfires are related to the daily rainfall. The rule is: if the rainfall in the past hour and the next hour in the forecast area exceeds 3 mm, the possibility of vegetation being ignited or the fire point remaining burning is almost zero, and the wildfire cannot spread. Therefore, the rainfall factor D r for:

[0093]

[0094] Among them, R p Indicates the rainfall in the past hour, R f Indicates the amount of rainfall expected in the next hour.

[0095] It should be noted that the above step S200 not only fully utilizes the advantages of different satellite data sources to improve the accuracy and timeliness of fire point identification, but also scientifically predicts the dynamic evolution of wildfires through advanced wildfire spread models, and can fully consider the complex factors of the environment around the fire point, such as the flammability of surface vegetation and the impact of rainfall on the fire, thereby generating more precise and reliable fire point spread factors. These factors provide a solid foundation for the subsequent calculation of the probability of transmission line failure, which helps power grid operators to take effective protective measures in a timely manner, reduce the threat of wildfires to transmission lines, and improve the safety and reliability of power grid operation.

[0096] In the embodiment of the present application, the above step S300 calculates the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line according to the fire spread factor, the surface vegetation factor, the rainfall factor and the air gap breakdown probability, wherein the calculation process of the air gap breakdown probability is:

[0097] Under standard atmospheric conditions (101.3 kPa, 20 °C, relative humidity of 1, absolute humidity of 11 g / m3), the external insulation air gap of the equipment design has sufficient margin. However, the temperature, density and humidity of the air near the wildfire will change significantly, significantly reducing the insulation strength of the air gap, and smoke, especially a large amount of needle-shaped ash from pine and fir trees, will fly to the high-voltage electrode in a chain shape with thermal convection, further distorting the electric field; these factors will induce the breakdown of the air gap between the charged body and the ground, and the air gap between the charged bodies in different phases.

[0098] To reflect the above influence, the correction coefficient K is defined t :

[0099] K t =K d K h K p

[0100] Among them, K d Indicates the air density correction factor, K h Indicates the air humidity correction factor, K p represents the particle correction factor;

[0101] K d Depends on the relative air density δ:

[0102] K d =δ m

[0103]

[0104] Where m is taken according to the regulations

[43] , p0 and p are the atmospheric pressure under standard atmospheric conditions and wildfire environment, kPa, and T is the gas temperature in the insulating air gap, °C;

[0105] Air humidity correction factor K h The calculation is:

[0106] K h =K W

[0107] Among them, the function K and the index W are related to the absolute humidity, voltage form and polarity, electric field conditions and flashover distance, and can be taken according to the regulations;

[0108] Particle correction factor K p Depends on the smoke concentration S d , the latter has a value interval of [0, 1]:

[0109]

[0110] Consider the effect of altitude on external insulation discharge voltage. For equipment installed at an altitude H between 1000m and 4000m (those above 4000m cannot be taken into account for the time being), its breakdown voltage should be multiplied by the altitude correction factor K. a :

[0111]

[0112] The probability of air gap breakdown under DC and AC voltage is close to normal distribution. The 50% probability breakdown voltage U′ in a wildfire environment is 50％ And 50% probability breakdown voltage U under standard atmospheric conditions 50％ The relationship is:

[0113] U′ 50％ =K t K a U 50％

[0114] The air gap breakdown voltage in a wildfire environment also obeys a normal distribution, and its probability density function is:

[0115]

[0116] Where U is the actual voltage and z is the coefficient of variation, which is within the range of [2%, 8%]. Under normal circumstances, the dispersion of the air gap breakdown voltage is not large, so z can be taken as 2%

[44] . Smoke makes the electric field tend to be non-uniform and the dispersion increases, so z can be taken as 4%.

[0117] The probability of air gap breakdown is calculated by the normal distribution function:

[0118]

[0119] Furthermore, taking into account the influencing factors, the calculation of the comprehensive tripping probability P of the transmission line is:

[0120] P=P(U)·D f ·D p ·D r

[0121] It should be noted that the above step S300 not only comprehensively considers the dynamic impact and environmental factors of wildfire spread, but also accurately evaluates the specific threats these factors pose to the safe operation of transmission lines. This multi-factor comprehensive analysis method can more accurately predict the failure probability of transmission lines in wildfire environments, provide scientific and quantitative decision-making basis for power grid operators, and help to take preventive measures in a timely manner, reduce transmission line failures and power outages caused by wildfires, and improve the disaster resistance and operational reliability of the power grid.

[0122] In the embodiment of the present application, the above step S400 includes:

[0123] Based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, the corresponding relationship between the transmission line failure rate and the fault warning is generated. The transmission line failure rate is processed into coarse-grained indicators according to the grading threshold value, as shown in Table 2, where red (0.8, 1], orange (0.6, 0.8], yellow (0.4, 0.6], blue (0.2, 0.4], white (0, 0.2]. If the probability reaches the blue level or above, it is "warning";

[0124] Table 2: Failure rate warning classification table.

[0125]

[0126] The longitude and latitude information of each tower is extracted through the GIS system, and the direction of each line is drawn through point-to-point connection. A forest fire warning corridor of 3 km is drawn on both sides of each section of the overhead line. The lines contained in the area are the warning sections, which are marked in the warning sections according to the grading threshold value of the transmission line failure rate and the color of the warning level; the fire points are matched to the corresponding warning sections based on the extrapolated prediction of the fire points and the fire spread detected by satellite monitoring.

[0127] It should be noted that the above step S400 generates a corresponding relationship between the failure rate of the transmission line and the fault warning based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, and marks it in the alarm section according to different grading threshold values ​​of the failure rate and the warning level color, thereby realizing an intuitive and graded warning of the risk of transmission line failure in a wildfire environment; this process not only converts complex calculation results into a form that is easy to understand and operate, but also provides a clear action guide for power grid operators, so that they can quickly take corresponding prevention and response measures according to the warning level, effectively reduce the potential threat of wildfires to transmission lines, and improve the operation safety and reliability of the power grid.

[0128] Example 2

[0129] This embodiment provides a power transmission line fault warning system based on wildfire spread extrapolation, including a data acquisition module, a wildfire spread prediction module, a fault rate calculation module, and a line fault warning module;

[0130] Specifically, the data acquisition module is used to obtain the static parameters of the polar orbit satellite and the real-time parameters of the synchronous satellite;

[0131] Specifically, the wildfire spread prediction module is used to identify fire points based on static parameters and real-time parameters, and to perform wildfire spread extrapolation prediction in combination with the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to generate fire point spread factors, surface vegetation factors, and rainfall factors;

[0132] Specifically, the fault rate calculation module is used to calculate the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line according to the fire point spread factor, the surface vegetation factor and the rainfall factor and the air gap breakdown probability;

[0133] Specifically, the line fault warning module is used to generate a corresponding relationship between the transmission line failure rate and the fault warning based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, and mark it in the alarm section according to the grading threshold value of the fault rate and the warning level color.

[0134] It should be noted that the technical solution of the system for early warning of power line faults based on extrapolation of wildfire spread and the technical solution of the above-mentioned method for early warning of power line faults based on extrapolation of wildfire spread belong to the same concept. For details not described in detail in the technical solution of the system for early warning of power line faults based on extrapolation of wildfire spread in this embodiment, please refer to the description of the technical solution of the method for early warning of power line faults based on extrapolation of wildfire spread.

[0135] The above-mentioned unit modules may be embedded in or independent of a processor in a computer device in the form of hardware, or may be stored in a memory in a computer device in the form of software, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to the above-mentioned modules.

[0136] This embodiment also provides a computing device, which includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, a display screen and an input device connected through a system bus. Among them, the processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal in a wired or wireless manner, and the wireless manner can be implemented through WIFI, an operator network, NFC (near field communication) or other technologies. When the computer program is executed by the processor, a power transmission line fault warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation is implemented. The display screen of the computer device can be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer device can be a touch layer covered on the display screen, or a button, trackball or touchpad set on the computer device housing, or an external keyboard, touchpad or mouse.

[0137] This embodiment also provides a storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the method proposed in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0138] The storage medium proposed in this embodiment and the method proposed in the above embodiment belong to the same inventive concept. The technical details not fully described in this embodiment can be referred to the above embodiment, and this embodiment has the same beneficial effects as the above embodiment.

[0139] Through the above description of the implementation methods, the technicians in the relevant field can clearly understand that the present invention can be implemented by means of software and necessary general hardware, and of course can also be implemented by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention is essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as a computer floppy disk, read-only memory (ReadOnly, Memory, ROM), random access memory (RandomAccess Memory, RAM), flash memory (FLASH), hard disk or optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to perform the methods of various embodiments of the present invention.

[0140] It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should all be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

[0141] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application can adopt the form of complete hardware embodiments, complete software embodiments, or embodiments in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application can adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that contain computer-usable program code. The scheme in the embodiments of the present application can be implemented in various computer languages, for example, object-oriented programming language Java and literal scripting language JavaScript, etc.

[0142] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0143] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0144] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0145] Although the preferred embodiments of the present application have been described, those skilled in the art may make other changes and modifications to these embodiments once they have learned the basic creative concept. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications falling within the scope of the present application.

[0146] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications to the present application without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present application fall within the scope of the claims of the present application and their equivalents, the present application is also intended to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation, characterized in that: include: Obtain static parameters through polar-orbiting satellites and real-time parameters through synchronous satellites; Fire point identification is performed based on the static parameters and real-time parameters, and wildfire spread extrapolation prediction is performed in combination with the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to generate fire point spread factors, surface vegetation factors and rainfall factors; Calculating the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line according to the fire spread factor, the surface vegetation factor and the rainfall factor and the air gap breakdown probability; Based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, a corresponding relationship between the failure rate and the fault warning of the transmission line is generated, and the fault rate is marked in the alarm section according to the grading threshold value and the warning level color of the fault rate.

2. The power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The obtaining of static parameters through polar-orbit satellites and the obtaining of real-time parameters through synchronous satellites include: Acquire original images through polar-orbit satellites and synchronous satellites respectively, and pre-process the original images; Extracting static parameters and real-time parameters according to the preprocessed image data; Divide the grid and establish the coordinate system according to GIS data; Using the coordinate system, obtaining the distribution information of the static parameters and the real-time parameters in the grid, and generating a spatial distribution diagram at time t; The data is updated in every polar orbit satellite period ΔT and synchronous satellite period Δt.

3. The power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to claim 2, characterized in that: The wildfire spread extrapolation prediction combined with the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model includes: Identify hotspots by combining polar-orbiting and geostationary satellite data at the beginning of the polar-orbiting satellite cycle; For each GIS data grid, the reaction intensity per unit area I is obtained according to the static parameters obtained by the polar orbit satellite. r (x, y, t) and slope θ(x, y), and the wind speed v is obtained according to the real-time parameters obtained by the synchronous satellite w (x, y, t), and then combine the wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to obtain the wildfire spread speed and direction; The time step is set to τ, and the position of the fire point is updated according to the wildfire spreading speed and direction in each time step by a numerical method, and the updated fire point position is projected into the grid to generate a new fire point distribution map; Update the real-time data at the beginning of each synchronous satellite cycle and adjust the wind speed correction factor φ w (v w ), when a new synchronous satellite cycle is restarted, the current forecast window width is divided into cycles Δt, and the prediction is extrapolated step by step; The fuel parameters are updated at the beginning of each polar orbit satellite cycle, and the wildfire spread extrapolation model is calibrated to correct the spread prediction error of the previous polar orbit satellite cycle.

4. The power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The generation of fire point spread factor, surface vegetation factor and rainfall factor includes: The fire spread factor D is generated based on the fire spread boundary, fire spread speed and geostationary satellite update frequency obtained by the fire spread extrapolation prediction model. f ; Generate the surface vegetation factor D according to the vegetation type around the fire point p , wherein the surrounding environment of the fire point is divided into a combustible area and a non-combustible area, the combustible area is divided into forests and grasslands, and the non-combustible area is divided into deserts and rivers; Generate the rainfall factor D according to the rainfall on that day r .

5. The power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation of the air gap breakdown probability includes: Correction factor K by air density d , Air humidity correction factor K h and the particle correction factor K p Define the correction factor K t Considering the influence of altitude on the external insulation discharge voltage, the breakdown voltage of the equipment's external insulation should be multiplied by the altitude correction factor K. a ; 50% probability breakdown voltage U′ in wildfire environment 50％ And 50% probability breakdown voltage U under standard atmospheric conditions 50％ The relationship is: IN' 50％ =K t K a IN 50％ The air gap breakdown voltage in a wildfire environment also follows a normal distribution. The probability of air gap breakdown calculated by the normal distribution function is:

6. The power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation of the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line comprises: Taking all influencing factors into consideration, the calculation of the comprehensive tripping probability P of the transmission line is: P=P(U)·D f ·D p ·D r 。 7. The power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to claim 6, characterized in that: Also includes: Based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, a corresponding relationship between the transmission line failure rate and the fault warning is generated, and the transmission line failure rate is subjected to coarse-grained processing according to the grading threshold value; Setting an alarm section, marking the alarm section according to the grading threshold value of the transmission line failure rate and the color of the warning level; The fire points are matched to the corresponding warning sections based on the extrapolated prediction of the fire points and fire spread detected by satellite monitoring.

8. A system using the power transmission line fault early warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: include: A data acquisition module is used to obtain static parameters of polar orbit satellites and real-time parameters of synchronous satellites; A wildfire spread prediction module is used to identify fire points based on the static parameters and real-time parameters, and to perform wildfire spread extrapolation prediction in combination with a wildfire spread extrapolation prediction model to generate fire point spread factors, surface vegetation factors, and rainfall factors; A failure rate calculation module, used to calculate the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line according to the fire spread factor, the surface vegetation factor and the rainfall factor and the air gap breakdown probability; The line fault warning module is used to generate the corresponding relationship between the transmission line failure rate and the fault warning based on the comprehensive tripping probability of the transmission line, and mark it in the alarm section according to the grading threshold value of the failure rate and the warning level color.

9. An electronic device, comprising: Memory and processor; The memory is used to store computer executable instructions, and the processor is used to execute the computer executable instructions. When the computer executable instructions are executed by the processor, the steps of the power transmission line fault warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the power transmission line fault warning method based on wildfire spread extrapolation as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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