Carbon neutralization path planning method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a carbon neutralization path planning method and system. The method comprises the following steps: determining a first carbon emission amount of a first carbon emission scene of a target enterprise; the first carbon emission scene is a carbon emission scene without adopting a carbon reduction measure; determining a second carbon emission amount of the target enterprise in the second carbon emission scene; the second carbon emission scene is a carbon emission scene adopting a carbon reduction measure; the carbon reduction measures comprise photovoltaic, wind power, electric transportation, electric vehicle charging station and forest carbon sink; constructing a carbon emission reduction path planning model, taking the minimum total cost of the carbon emission reduction path as an objective function, and determining constraint conditions by adopting the first carbon emission, the second carbon emission and the outsourcing carbon credit; and solving the carbon emission reduction path planning model to obtain the carbon reduction optimal construction starting time, the optimal annual construction amount and the optimal annual outsourcing carbon credit. Based on the method, the invention further provides a carbon neutralization path planning system. According to the invention, enterprises are helped to carry out carbon emission reduction technology type selection and path planning according to own carbon neutralization targets.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of carbon-neutral path planning, and in particular relates to a carbon-neutral path planning method and system. Background Art

[0002] Steel processing companies transform steel raw materials into various industrial and civilian products through different processing techniques, such as casting, rolling, forging, extrusion, etc. Companies are gradually paying more attention to the path to achieving carbon neutrality.

[0003] However, the existing technical solution research requires enterprises to provide clear emission reduction targets for each year in the future to select emission reduction technologies, and it is impossible to select appropriate emission reduction scenarios based solely on the ultimate carbon neutrality target. Moreover, such enterprises are limited by the influence of sites and funds. Enterprises cannot achieve carbon neutrality solely through carbon emission reduction technologies, and need to purchase carbon credits to offset carbon emissions that cannot be achieved by technical emission reduction. How to select appropriate emission reduction technology solutions and balance emission reduction facilities and purchased carbon credit investment has become a problem. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention proposes a carbon neutrality path planning method and system to help enterprises select carbon emission reduction technologies and plan paths according to their own carbon neutrality goals.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0006] A carbon neutrality path planning method comprises the following steps:

[0007] Determine a first carbon emission amount of a first carbon emission scenario of the target enterprise; the first carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario in which no carbon reduction measures are adopted;

[0008] Determine the second carbon emission amount of the target enterprise under the second carbon emission scenario; the second carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario in which carbon reduction measures are adopted; the carbon reduction measures include photovoltaic, wind power, electric transportation, electric vehicle charging stations and forest carbon sinks;

[0009] Construct a carbon emission reduction path planning model, specifically taking the minimization of the total cost of the carbon emission reduction path as the objective function, and using the first carbon emissions, the second carbon emissions and the amount of purchased carbon credits to determine the constraints of carbon emission reduction; by solving the carbon emission reduction path planning model, the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual amount of purchased carbon credits are obtained.

[0010] Furthermore, the method for determining the first carbon emission amount of the first carbon emission scenario of the target enterprise is:

[0011] The first carbon emissions are estimated by interpolation based on the carbon emissions data of the current year provided by the target enterprise; or the first carbon emissions are predicted by a prediction model based on the historical carbon emissions data and planning targets provided by the target enterprise.

[0012] Furthermore, the calculation method for annual photovoltaic emission reduction is:

[0013] C 光伏i =T 光伏 × Photovoltaic installed capacity i ×EF 光伏 ;

[0014] Among them, C 光伏i is the annual photovoltaic emission reduction in the i-th year; T 光伏 is the photovoltaic equivalent utilization hours; photovoltaic installed capacity i is the photovoltaic installed capacity in the i-th year; EF 光伏 For photovoltaic CO 2 Emission factors;

[0015] The calculation method for annual wind power emission reduction is:

[0016] C 风电i =T 风电 × Wind power installed capacity i ×EF 风电 ;

[0017] Among them, C 风电i is the annual wind power emission reduction in the i-th year; T 风电 is the equivalent utilization hours of wind power; wind power installed capacity i is the installed capacity of wind power in the i-th year; EF 风电 For wind power CO 2 Emission factors.

[0018] Furthermore, the calculation method for the emission reduction of electric transport vehicles is:

[0019] C 电动运输车i =C 电动运输车基准i -C 电动运输车项目i ;

[0020] Among them, C 电动运输车i is the emission reduction of electric transport vehicles in year i; C 电动运输车基准i is the baseline carbon emission of electric transport vehicles in year i; C 电动运输车项目i is the carbon emissions of the electric transport vehicle project in year i;

[0021] C 电动运输车基准i =SFC*DD i *EF*IR1 i *N i *10 -3 ;

[0022] Where SFC is the fuel consumption rate of the baseline vehicle type; DD i is the average annual driving distance of the project vehicles in year i; EF is the emission factor of fossil fuel consumption of baseline vehicles; IR1 i N is the technical improvement factor of electric transport vehicles in year i; i is the number of project vehicles in operation in year i;

[0023] C 电动运输车项目i =SEC*EF 电 / (1-TDL)*10 -3 *DD i *N i ;

[0024] Wherein, SEC is the power consumption rate per kilometer of the project vehicle; EF 电 is the carbon emission factor of the power grid; TDL is the average loss of technical transmission and distribution of electricity.

[0025] Furthermore, the calculation method of the electric vehicle charging station is:

[0026] C 充电站i =C 充电站基准i -C 充电站项目i ;

[0027] C 充电站基准i =SFC fuel / SFC elec *EC i *EF 汽油 *IR2 i ;

[0028] C 充电站项目i =EC i *EF 电 *(1+TDL);

[0029] Among them, C 充电站基准i is the total baseline emission of the charging station in year i; SFC fuel is the fuel consumption per mileage of the baseline vehicle; SFC elec EC is the unit mileage power consumption of the baseline vehicle; i is the charging amount of the vehicle at the charging station in year i; EF 汽油 is the gasoline carbon emission factor; IR2 i is the charging station technology improvement factor in year i.

[0030] Furthermore, the calculation method of forest carbon sink is:

[0031]

[0032] in, is the biomass carbon storage of the jth tree species in the i-th year; is the biomass of the jth tree species in the i-th year, is the carbon content in the biomass of the jth tree species in the i-th year;

[0033]

[0034] Among them, f j (DBH i,j ,H i,j ) is the regression equation for converting the tree measurement factors DBH and tree height H of the j-th tree species in the i-th year into aboveground biomass; is the root diameter ratio of the jth tree species in the i-th year; is the number of trees of the jth species in the i-th year; is the area of ​​the jth tree species; DBH i,j is the DBH of the j-th tree species in the i-th year; H i,j is the tree height of the j-th species in the i-th year.

[0035] Furthermore, the objective function is expressed as:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, COST_TOTAL represents the total cost of carbon emission reduction path; COST_CON i,z represents the construction cost of the zth carbon reduction scenario in the i-th year; COST_RUN i,z COST_CC represents the operating cost of the zth carbon reduction scenario in the i-th year; i Represents the cost of purchased carbon credits in year i.

[0038] Furthermore, the constraint condition is expressed as:

[0039] First carbon emissions = second carbon emissions + purchased carbon credits.

[0040] Furthermore, the process of solving the carbon reduction path planning model to obtain the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase volume includes:

[0041] The optimal initial values ​​of the start time of construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase amount are set, and the optimal combination of the start time of construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase amount that minimizes the total cost of the emission reduction path of the objective function is obtained through continuous iterative solution.

[0042] The present invention also proposes a carbon neutral path planning system, comprising: a first determination module, a second determination module and a planning module;

[0043] The first determination module is used to determine a first carbon emission amount of a first carbon emission scenario of the target enterprise; the first carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario in which no carbon reduction measures are adopted;

[0044] The second determination module is used to determine the second carbon emission amount of the target enterprise in the second carbon emission scenario; the second carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario using carbon reduction measures; the carbon reduction measures include photovoltaic, wind power, electric transportation, electric vehicle charging stations and forest carbon sinks;

[0045] The planning module is used to construct a carbon emission reduction path planning model, specifically, taking the minimization of the total cost of the carbon emission reduction path as the objective function, and using the first carbon emissions, the second carbon emissions and the purchased carbon credits to determine the constraints of carbon emission reduction; by solving the carbon emission reduction path planning model, the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual purchased carbon credits are obtained.

[0046] The effects provided in the content of the invention are only the effects of the embodiments, not all the effects of the invention. One of the above technical solutions has the following advantages or beneficial effects:

[0047] The present invention proposes a carbon neutrality path planning method and system, which includes the following steps: determining the first carbon emission of the first carbon emission scenario of the target enterprise; the first carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario without adopting carbon reduction measures; determining the second carbon emission of the second carbon emission scenario of the target enterprise; the second carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario with adopting carbon reduction measures; the carbon reduction measures include photovoltaic, wind power, electric transportation, electric vehicle charging stations and forest carbon sinks; constructing a carbon emission reduction path planning model, specifically taking the minimum total cost of the carbon emission reduction path as the objective function, and using the first carbon emission, the second carbon emission and the purchased carbon credit to determine the constraints of carbon emission reduction; solving the carbon emission reduction path planning model to obtain the optimal start time of carbon reduction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual purchased carbon credit. Based on a carbon neutrality path planning method, a carbon neutrality path planning system is also proposed. The present invention helps enterprises select carbon emission reduction technologies and plan paths based on their own carbon neutrality goals. At the same time, in order to address the problem that carbon neutrality cannot be achieved through emission reduction technologies, it incorporates purchased carbon credits into the objective function. Through planning and solving, a plan is found to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality with minimal investment, thereby providing assistance to enterprises in making carbon emission reduction decisions. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a carbon neutrality path planning method proposed in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0049] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the biomass estimation model proposed in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0050] Figure 3This is a schematic diagram of a carbon neutral path planning system proposed in Example 2 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0051] In order to clearly illustrate the technical features of the present solution, the present invention is described in detail below through specific implementation methods and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The disclosure below provides many different embodiments or examples for realizing different structures of the present invention. In order to simplify the disclosure of the present invention, the components and settings of specific examples are described below. In addition, the present invention may repeat reference numbers and / or letters in different examples. This repetition is for the purpose of simplification and clarity, and does not itself indicate the relationship between the various embodiments and / or settings discussed. It should be noted that the components illustrated in the accompanying drawings are not necessarily drawn to scale. The present invention omits the description of known components and processing techniques and processes to avoid unnecessary limitations on the present invention.

[0052] Example 1

[0053] Embodiment 1 of the present invention proposes a carbon-neutral path planning method, which is used to solve the technical problems existing in carbon-neutral path planning in the prior art. Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a carbon neutrality path planning method proposed in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0054] In step S100, a first carbon emission amount of a first carbon emission scenario of a target enterprise is determined; the first carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario in which no carbon reduction measures are adopted;

[0055] Carbon emissions are predicted based on the information provided by the enterprise. If the enterprise can only provide information such as the base year carbon emissions, the planned carbon neutrality year, and the planned output value or output, it can be estimated through interpolation. If detailed carbon emission data for many years in the past and future planning targets can be provided, predictions can be made through time series, machine learning and other methods.

[0056] In step S200, the second carbon emission amount of the second carbon emission scenario of the target enterprise is determined; the second carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario using carbon reduction measures; the carbon reduction measures include photovoltaics, wind power, electric transportation, electric vehicle charging stations and forest carbon sinks.

[0057] Enterprises select appropriate carbon reduction technologies based on their own conditions, fill in calculation parameters and constraints, and form carbon reduction scenario plans. Each carbon reduction scenario in this part has a built-in emission reduction calculation method. The optional plans include photovoltaic, wind power, replacement of electric transport vehicles, electric vehicle charging stations, and forest carbon sinks.

[0058] Taking a pipe casting plant as an example, the carbon reduction scenario it selected is rooftop photovoltaics and replacement of electric transport vehicles. Users need to enter basic information such as equivalent utilization hours, average vehicle operating hours, and constraint information such as installed capacity upper limit and number of operating vehicles to provide conditions for subsequent carbon reduction scenario path optimization.

[0059] The calculation method for annual photovoltaic emission reduction is:

[0060]

[0061] in, is the annual photovoltaic emission reduction in the i-th year; T 光伏 is the photovoltaic equivalent utilization hours; photovoltaic installed capacity i is the photovoltaic installed capacity in the i-th year; EF 光伏 For photovoltaic CO 2 Emission factors;

[0062] The calculation method for annual wind power emission reduction is:

[0063]

[0064] in, is the annual wind power emission reduction in the i-th year; T 风电 is the equivalent utilization hours of wind power; wind power installed capacity i is the installed capacity of wind power in the i-th year; EF 风电 For wind power CO 2 Emission factors.

[0065] The calculation method for emission reduction of electric transport vehicles is as follows:

[0066] C 电动运输车i =C 电动运输车基准i -C 电动运输车项目i ;

[0067] Among them, C 电动运输车i is the emission reduction of electric transport vehicles in year i; C 电动运输车基准i is the baseline carbon emission of electric transport vehicles in year i; C 电动运输车项目i is the carbon emissions of the electric transport vehicle project in year i;

[0068]

[0069] Where SFC is the fuel consumption rate of the baseline vehicle type; DD i is the average annual driving distance of the project vehicles in year i; EF is the emission factor of fossil fuel consumption of baseline vehicles; IR1 i N is the technical improvement factor of electric transport vehicles in year i; i is the number of project vehicles in operation in year i;

[0070] C电动运输车项目i =SEC*EF 电 / (1-TDL)*10 -3 *DD i *N i ;

[0071] Wherein, SEC is the power consumption rate per kilometer of the project vehicle; EF 电 is the carbon emission factor of the power grid; TDL is the average loss of technical transmission and distribution of electricity.

[0072] The default baseline vehicle type is the carbon emissions of 8-20 ton diesel trucks.

[0073] The calculation method for electric vehicle charging stations is:

[0074] C 充电站i =C 充电站基准i -C 充电站项目i ;

[0075] C 充电站基准i =SFC fuel / SFC elec *EC i *EF 汽油 *IR2 i ;

[0076] C 充电站项目i =EC i *EF 电 *(1+TDL);

[0077] The default baseline vehicle type is a gasoline passenger car with 7 seats or less.

[0078] Among them, C 充电站基准i is the total baseline emission of the charging station in year i; SFC fuel is the fuel consumption per mileage of the baseline vehicle; SFC elec EC is the unit mileage power consumption of the baseline vehicle; i is the charging amount of the vehicle at the charging station in year i; EF 汽油 is the gasoline carbon emission factor; IR2 i is the charging station technology improvement factor in year i.

[0079] The calculation method of forest carbon sequestration is:

[0080]

[0081] in, is the biomass carbon storage of the jth tree species in the i-th year; is the biomass of the jth tree species in year i, in tons of dry weight; is the carbon content in the biomass of the jth tree species in the i-th year;

[0082] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the biomass estimation model proposed in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0083]

[0084] Among them, f j (DBH i,j ,H i,j ) is the regression equation for converting the tree measurement factors DBH and tree height H of the j-th tree species in the i-th year into aboveground biomass; is the root diameter ratio of the jth tree species in the i-th year; is the number of trees of the jth species in the i-th year; is the area of ​​the jth tree species; DBH i,j is the DBH of the j-th tree species in the i-th year; H i,j is the tree height of the j-th species in the i-th year.

[0085] In step S300, a carbon emission reduction path planning model is constructed. Specifically, the objective function is to minimize the total cost of the carbon emission reduction path, and the first carbon emissions, the second carbon emissions and the purchased carbon credits are used to determine the constraints of carbon emission reduction. The optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual purchased carbon credits are obtained by solving the carbon emission reduction path planning model.

[0086] In order to achieve path optimization, it is necessary to clarify the objective function and various constraints. The objective function of the emission reduction path is to minimize the total cost of the emission reduction path, that is,

[0087]

[0088] Among them, COST_TOTAL represents the total cost of carbon emission reduction path; COST_CON i,z represents the construction cost of the zth carbon reduction scenario in the i-th year; COST_RUN i,z COST_CC represents the operating cost of the zth carbon reduction scenario in the i-th year; i Represents the cost of purchased carbon credits in year i.

[0089] The constraints are expressed as:

[0090] First carbon emissions = second carbon emissions + purchased carbon credits.

[0091] For purchased carbon credits, you can choose the time to introduce purchased carbon credits, the upper limit of the proportion of purchased carbon credits in total emissions, the annual growth rate of purchased carbon credits, etc.

[0092] Different emission reduction scenarios have different scenario constraints. For example, in the photovoltaic scenario, the constraints are the buildable photovoltaic area and the annual photovoltaic capacity; in the electric transport vehicle replacement scenario, the annual number of operating vehicles, etc.

[0093] The process of solving the carbon reduction path planning model to obtain the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase volume includes:

[0094] The optimal initial values ​​of the start time of construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase amount are set, and the optimal combination of the start time of construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase amount that minimizes the total cost of the emission reduction path of the objective function is obtained through continuous iterative solution.

[0095] The emission reduction path planning is converted into a linear programming problem for solution, and the optimal start construction year, optimal annual construction volume, and optimal annual external purchase of carbon credits for carbon reduction technology are obtained. First, the initial values ​​of each parameter are set, and the above parameter combination that minimizes the total cost of the emission reduction path of the objective function is obtained through continuous iteration. The optimal start construction year, optimal annual construction volume, and annual optimal external purchase of carbon credits for each emission reduction technology obtained through optimization can provide theoretical support for the construction of emission reduction technology facilities and operation and maintenance plans in the carbon emission reduction path of steel processing enterprises. At the same time, the annual optimal external purchase of carbon credits helps enterprises achieve carbon neutrality goals at the lowest financial cost.

[0096] A carbon neutrality path planning method proposed in Example 1 of the present invention helps enterprises select carbon emission reduction technologies and plan paths according to their own carbon neutrality goals. At the same time, in order to address the problem that carbon neutrality cannot be achieved through emission reduction technologies, purchased carbon credits are incorporated into the objective function. Through planning and solving, a solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality with minimal investment is implemented, thereby providing assistance to enterprises in making carbon emission reduction decisions.

[0097] Example 2

[0098] Based on a carbon-neutral path planning method proposed in Example 1 of the present invention, Example 2 of the present invention further proposes a carbon-neutral path planning system. Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a carbon neutrality path planning system proposed in Embodiment 2 of the present invention, the system comprising: a first determination module, a second determination module and a planning module;

[0099] The first determination module is used to determine a first carbon emission amount of a first carbon emission scenario of a target enterprise; the first carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario in which no carbon reduction measures are adopted;

[0100] The second determination module is used to determine the second carbon emission of the target enterprise in the second carbon emission scenario; the second carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario using carbon reduction measures; the carbon reduction measures include photovoltaic, wind power, electric transportation, electric vehicle charging stations and forest carbon sinks;

[0101] The planning module is used to construct a carbon emission reduction path planning model. Specifically, the objective function is to minimize the total cost of the carbon emission reduction path, and the first carbon emissions, the second carbon emissions and the purchased carbon credits are used to determine the constraints of carbon emission reduction; by solving the carbon emission reduction path planning model, the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual purchased carbon credits are obtained.

[0102] During the execution of the first determination module, the method for determining the first carbon emissions of the target enterprise in the first carbon emission scenario is: based on the carbon emissions data of the year provided by the target enterprise, the first carbon emissions are estimated by interpolation; or based on the historical carbon emissions data and planning targets provided by the target enterprise, the first carbon emissions are predicted by a prediction model.

[0103] During the execution of the second determination module, the calculation method for the annual photovoltaic emission reduction is:

[0104] C 光伏i =T 光伏 × Photovoltaic installed capacity i ×EF 光伏 ;

[0105] Among them, C 光伏i is the annual photovoltaic emission reduction in the i-th year; T 光伏 is the photovoltaic equivalent utilization hours; photovoltaic installed capacity i is the photovoltaic installed capacity in the i-th year; EF 光伏 For photovoltaic CO 2 Emission factors;

[0106] The calculation method for annual wind power emission reduction is:

[0107] C 风电i =T 风电 × Wind power installed capacity i ×EF 风电 ;

[0108] Among them, C 风电i is the annual wind power emission reduction in the i-th year; T 风电 is the equivalent utilization hours of wind power; wind power installed capacity i is the installed capacity of wind power in the i-th year; EF 风电 For wind power CO 2 Emission factors.

[0109] The calculation method for emission reduction of electric transport vehicles is as follows:

[0110] C 电动运输车i =C 电动运输车基准i -C 电动运输车项目i ;

[0111] Among them, C 电动运输车i is the emission reduction of electric transport vehicles in year i; C电动运输车基准i is the baseline carbon emission of electric transport vehicles in year i; C 电动运输车项目i is the carbon emissions of the electric transport vehicle project in year i;

[0112]

[0113] Where SFC is the fuel consumption rate of the baseline vehicle type; DD i is the average annual driving distance of the project vehicles in year i; EF is the emission factor of fossil fuel consumption of baseline vehicles; IR1 i N is the technical improvement factor of electric transport vehicles in year i; i is the number of project vehicles in operation in year i;

[0114] C 电动运输车项目i =SEC*EF 电 / (1-TDL)*10 -3 *DD i *N i ;

[0115] Wherein, SEC is the power consumption rate per kilometer of the project vehicle; EF 电 is the carbon emission factor of the power grid; TDL is the average loss of technical transmission and distribution of electricity.

[0116] The calculation method for electric vehicle charging stations is:

[0117] C 充电站i =C 充电站基准i -C 充电站项目i ;

[0118] C 充电站基准i =SFC fuel / SFC elec *EC i *EF 汽油 *IR2 i ;

[0119] C 充电站项目i =EC i *EF 电 *(1+TDL);

[0120] Among them, C 充电站基准i is the total baseline emission of the charging station in year i; SFC fuel is the fuel consumption per mileage of the baseline vehicle; SFC elec EC is the unit mileage power consumption of the baseline vehicle; i is the charging amount of the vehicle at the charging station in year i; EF 汽油 is the gasoline carbon emission factor; IR2 i is the charging station technology improvement factor in year i.

[0121] The calculation method of forest carbon sequestration is:

[0122]

[0123] in, is the biomass carbon storage of the jth tree species in the i-th year; is the biomass of the jth tree species in the i-th year, is the carbon content in the biomass of the jth tree species in the i-th year;

[0124]

[0125] Among them, f j (DBH i,j ,H i,j ) is the regression equation for converting the tree measurement factors DBH and tree height H of the j-th tree species in the i-th year into aboveground biomass; is the root diameter ratio of the jth tree species in the i-th year; is the number of trees of the jth species in the i-th year; is the area of ​​the jth tree species; DBH i,j is the DBH of the j-th tree species in the i-th year; H i,j is the tree height of the j-th species in the i-th year.

[0126] The execution process of the planning module includes: To achieve path optimization, it is necessary to clarify the objective function and various constraints. The objective function of the emission reduction path is to minimize the total cost of the emission reduction path, that is,

[0127]

[0128] Among them, COST_TOTAL represents the total cost of carbon emission reduction path; COST_CON i,z represents the construction cost of the zth carbon reduction scenario in the i-th year; COST_RUN i,z COST_CC represents the operating cost of the zth carbon reduction scenario in the i-th year; i Represents the cost of purchased carbon credits in year i.

[0129] The constraints are expressed as:

[0130] First carbon emissions = second carbon emissions + purchased carbon credits.

[0131] For purchased carbon credits, you can choose the time to introduce purchased carbon credits, the upper limit of the proportion of purchased carbon credits in total emissions, the annual growth rate of purchased carbon credits, etc.

[0132] Different emission reduction scenarios have different scenario constraints. For example, in the photovoltaic scenario, the constraints are the buildable photovoltaic area and the annual photovoltaic capacity; in the electric transport vehicle replacement scenario, the annual number of operating vehicles, etc.

[0133] The process of solving the carbon reduction path planning model to obtain the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase volume includes:

[0134] The optimal initial values ​​of the start time of construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase amount are set, and the optimal combination of the start time of construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase amount that minimizes the total cost of the emission reduction path of the objective function is obtained through continuous iterative solution.

[0135] A carbon neutrality path planning system proposed in Example 2 of the present invention helps enterprises select carbon emission reduction technologies and plan paths based on their own carbon neutrality goals. At the same time, in order to address the problem that carbon neutrality cannot be achieved through emission reduction technologies, purchased carbon credits are incorporated into the objective function. Through planning and solving, a solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality with minimal investment is implemented, thereby providing assistance to enterprises in making carbon emission reduction decisions.

[0136] For the description of the relevant parts of a carbon-neutral path planning system provided in Example 2 of the present application, please refer to the detailed description of the corresponding parts of a carbon-neutral path planning method provided in Example 1 of the present application, and will not be repeated here.

[0137] It should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply that there is any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the term "include", "comprise" or any other variant thereof is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that the process, method, article or equipment that includes a series of elements are inherent to the elements. In the absence of more restrictions, the elements limited by the sentence "comprise one..." do not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or equipment that includes the elements. In addition, the above-mentioned technical solution provided in the embodiment of the present application is consistent with the corresponding technical solution in the prior art in principle, and the part is not described in detail, so as not to repeat too much.

[0138] Although the above describes the specific implementation of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, it is not intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other different forms of modifications or deformations can be made on the basis of the above description. It is not necessary and impossible to list all the implementation methods here. On the basis of the technical solution of the present invention, various modifications or deformations that can be made by those skilled in the art without creative work are still within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A carbon neutrality path planning method, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Determine a first carbon emission amount of a first carbon emission scenario of the target enterprise; the first carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario in which no carbon reduction measures are adopted; Determine the second carbon emission amount of the target enterprise under the second carbon emission scenario; the second carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario in which carbon reduction measures are adopted; the carbon reduction measures include photovoltaic, wind power, electric transportation, electric vehicle charging stations and forest carbon sinks; Construct a carbon emission reduction path planning model, specifically taking the minimization of the total cost of the carbon emission reduction path as the objective function, and using the first carbon emissions, the second carbon emissions and the amount of purchased carbon credits to determine the constraints of carbon emission reduction; by solving the carbon emission reduction path planning model, the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual amount of purchased carbon credits are obtained.

2. A carbon neutrality path planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method for determining the first carbon emission amount of the target enterprise in the first carbon emission scenario is: The first carbon emissions are estimated by interpolation based on the carbon emissions data of the current year provided by the target enterprise; or the first carbon emissions are predicted by a prediction model based on the historical carbon emissions data and planning targets provided by the target enterprise.

3. A carbon neutrality path planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation method for annual photovoltaic emission reduction is: C 光伏i =T 光伏 × Photovoltaic installed capacity i ×EF 光伏 ; Among them, C 光伏i is the annual photovoltaic emission reduction in the i-th year; T 光伏 is the photovoltaic equivalent utilization hours; photovoltaic installed capacity i is the photovoltaic installed capacity in the i-th year; EF 光伏 is the photovoltaic CO2 emission factor; The calculation method for annual wind power emission reduction is: C 风电i =T 风电 × Wind power installed capacity i ×EF 风电 ; Among them, C 风电i is the annual wind power emission reduction in the i-th year; T 风电 is the equivalent utilization hours of wind power; wind power installed capacity i is the installed capacity of wind power in the i-th year; EF 风电 is the CO2 emission factor of wind power.

4. A carbon neutrality path planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation method for emission reduction of electric transport vehicles is: C 电动运输车i =C 电动运输车基准i -C 电动运输车项目i ; Among them, C 电动运输车i is the emission reduction of electric transport vehicles in year i; C 电动运输车基准i is the baseline carbon emission of electric transport vehicles in year i; C 电动运输车项目i is the carbon emissions of the electric transport vehicle project in year i; C 电动运输车基准i =SFC*DD i *EF*IR1 i *N i *10 -3 ; Where SFC is the fuel consumption rate of the baseline vehicle type; DD i is the average annual driving distance of the project vehicles in year i; EF is the emission factor of fossil fuel consumption of baseline vehicles; IR1 i N is the technical improvement factor of electric transport vehicles in year i; i is the number of project vehicles in operation in year i; C 电动运输车项目i =SEC*EF 电 / (1-TDL)*10 -3 *DD i *N i 4 Wherein, SEC is the power consumption rate per kilometer of the project vehicle; EF 电 is the carbon emission factor of the power grid; TDL is the average loss of technical transmission and distribution of electricity.

5. A carbon neutrality path planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation method for electric vehicle charging stations is: C 充电站i =C 充电站基准i -C 充电站项目i ; C 充电站基准i =SFC fuel / SFC elec *EC i *EF 汽油 *IR2 i ; C 充电站项目i =EC i *EF 电 *(1+TDL): Among them, C 充电站基准i is the total baseline emission of the charging station in year i; SFC fuel is the fuel consumption per mileage of the baseline vehicle; SFC elec EC is the unit mileage power consumption of the baseline vehicle; i is the charging amount of the vehicle at the charging station in year i; EF 汽油 is the gasoline carbon emission factor; IR2 i is the charging station technology improvement factor in year i.

6. A carbon neutrality path planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation method of forest carbon sequestration is: in, is the biomass carbon storage of the jth tree species in the i-th year; is the biomass of the jth tree species in the i-th year, is the carbon content in the biomass of the jth tree species in the i-th year; Among them, f j (DBH i,j ,H i,j ) is the regression equation for converting the tree measurement factors DBH and tree height H of the j-th tree species in the i-th year into aboveground biomass; is the root diameter ratio of the jth tree species in the i-th year; is the number of trees of the jth species in the i-th year; is the area of ​​the jth tree species; DBH i,j is the DBH of the j-th tree species in the i-th year; H i,j is the tree height of the j-th species in the i-th year.

7. A carbon neutrality path planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The objective function is expressed as: Among them, COST_TOTAL represents the total cost of carbon emission reduction path; COST_CON i,z represents the construction cost of the zth carbon reduction scenario in the i-th year; COST_RUN i,z COST_CC represents the operating cost of the zth carbon reduction scenario in the i-th year; i Represents the cost of purchased carbon credits in year i.

8. A carbon neutrality path planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The constraints are expressed as: First carbon emissions = second carbon emissions + purchased carbon credits.

9. A carbon neutrality path planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The process of solving the carbon reduction path planning model to obtain the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase volume includes: The optimal initial values ​​of the start time of construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase amount are set, and the optimal combination of the start time of construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual carbon credit purchase amount that minimizes the total cost of the emission reduction path of the objective function is obtained through continuous iterative solution.

10. A carbon neutral path planning system, characterized in that: include: A first determination module, a second determination module and a planning module; The first determination module is used to determine a first carbon emission amount of a first carbon emission scenario of a target enterprise; The first carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario in which no carbon reduction measures are adopted; The second determination module is used to determine the second carbon emission amount of the target enterprise in the second carbon emission scenario; the second carbon emission scenario is a carbon emission scenario using carbon reduction measures; the carbon reduction measures include photovoltaic, wind power, electric transportation, electric vehicle charging stations and forest carbon sinks; The planning module is used to construct a carbon emission reduction path planning model, specifically, the objective function is to minimize the total cost of the carbon emission reduction path, and the constraints of carbon emission reduction are determined by the first carbon emissions, the second carbon emissions and the purchased carbon credits; by solving the carbon emission reduction path planning model, the optimal start time for carbon reduction construction, the optimal annual construction volume and the optimal annual purchased carbon credits are obtained.

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