A tunnel three-dimensional geological uncertainty intelligent modeling method and system based on transition probability statistics and sparse drilling

By combining transition probability geostatistics with sparse boreholes, the smoothing problem of geological models under sparse boreholes in tunnel engineering was solved, the rationality and uncertainty of three-dimensional lithology models were quantified, and the scientific nature of risk assessment and design in tunnel engineering was improved.

CN122289576APending Publication Date: 2026-06-26SOUTHWEST JIAOTONG UNIV
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
SOUTHWEST JIAOTONG UNIV
Filing Date
2026-02-09
Publication Date
2026-06-26

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

In tunnel engineering, existing technologies struggle to construct three-dimensional geological models that conform to geological sequence patterns and quantify uncertainties under sparse drilling conditions. This results in overly smooth modeling results or neglect of stratigraphic order patterns, failing to meet engineering requirements under complex geological conditions.

Method used

By employing a transition probability-based geostatistical approach, sparse borehole data and geological prior knowledge are integrated. Through a one-dimensional transition probability matrix and a three-dimensional variogram model, combined with sequential indicator simulation and Bayesian updates, a multi-realization three-dimensional lithology model is generated, and the uncertainty is quantified.

Benefits of technology

By generating a three-dimensional lithological model with a reasonable geological structure and conforming to sedimentary logic under sparse drilling conditions, the uncertainty of the model can be quantitatively represented in space, thereby improving the scientificity and reliability of risk assessment and design in tunnel engineering.

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Abstract

This invention relates to the fields of tunnel engineering and 3D geological modeling technology, specifically to an intelligent modeling method and system for 3D geological uncertainty in tunnels based on transition probability geostatistics and sparse boreholes. The method includes: S1, integrating multi-source data to construct a 3D geological conceptual model; S2, statistically characterizing a one-dimensional transition probability matrix, calculating and fitting a spatial continuity and 3D anisotropic variability function model; S3, calculating the prior spatial probabilities and transition adjustment factors for various lithologies, obtaining the posterior lithology distribution of nodes through Bayesian intelligent updating, and initially assigning lithology categories to nodes through random sampling; S4, assigning the most probable lithology category to each grid node, calculating the variance of lithology values ​​across all implementations, and measuring model uncertainty; S5, outputting the optimal 3D uncertainty model for the tunnel; and S6, verification and evaluation. This invention can effectively achieve 3D heterogeneous modeling and explicit quantification of uncertainty under strong geological constraints.
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