An Evaluation Method for Comprehensive Energy Planning Schemes

Abstract

The present invention relates to an evaluation method for a comprehensive energy planning scheme, comprising the following steps: 1) selecting a comprehensive energy evaluation index; 2) obtaining an evaluation index result value corresponding to the comprehensive energy planning scheme; 3) normalizing the result value of each evaluation index to obtain a normalized value of each evaluation index; 4) constructing an index vector corresponding to each evaluation index, wherein the modulus of the index vector is the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation index or is determined by the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation index, and the direction of the index vector satisfies the following conditions: the vector sum of the unit vectors of each index vector is a zero vector; and 5) performing vector summation on each index vector to obtain an evaluation vector, wherein the smaller the modulus of the evaluation vector is, the better the corresponding comprehensive energy planning scheme is.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to an evaluation method for a comprehensive energy planning scheme, and belongs to the technical field of comprehensive energy planning. Background Art

[0002] Integrated energy refers to the use of advanced physical information technology and innovative management models within a certain area to integrate various materials such as coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and thermal energy in the region to achieve coordinated planning, optimized operation, collaborative management, interactive response, and complementary assistance among various heterogeneous energy subsystems.

[0003] The existing scheme optimization and evaluation indicators for comprehensive energy planning schemes are mostly to build an economic, technical, and environmental protection indicator evaluation system, calculate the indicator values ​​at all levels through the hierarchical analysis method, calculate the comprehensive score of the scheme through the determined weights, and determine the preferred scheme through the score. However, the existing scheme weight setting is highly subjective, resulting in a certain tendency in the scheme selection, and the results calculated through the weights are not intuitive enough and the visualization effect is poor. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide an evaluation method for a comprehensive energy planning scheme, so as to solve the problems that the weight setting of the existing evaluation method is complicated and the results are not intuitive enough.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the solution of the present invention includes: a method for evaluating a comprehensive energy planning solution, comprising the following steps:

[0006] 1) Select comprehensive energy evaluation indicators;

[0007] 2) Obtain the evaluation index result value corresponding to the comprehensive energy planning scheme;

[0008] 3) Normalizing the result values ​​of each evaluation index to obtain the normalized value of each evaluation index;

[0009] 4) constructing an indicator vector corresponding to each evaluation indicator, wherein the modulus of the indicator vector is the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation indicator or is determined by the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation indicator, and the direction of the indicator vector satisfies the following condition: the vector sum of the unit vectors of each indicator vector is a zero vector;

[0010] 5) Perform vector summation on each indicator vector to obtain an evaluation vector. The smaller the modulus of the evaluation vector is, the better the corresponding comprehensive energy planning scheme is.

[0011] The present invention provides a novel evaluation method for a comprehensive energy planning scheme, which avoids subjective human intervention by setting multiple rating indicators; obtaining result values ​​of various rating indicators; normalizing different result values; the result of the normalization of the result values ​​of various indicators is a vector value, and the vector angles of each adjacent two items are made equal; and then the obtained vectors are summed to obtain an evaluation vector, and the smaller the vector modulus is, the better the scheme is.

[0012] The beneficial effects of this are: canceling the setting of weights for each rating indicator, avoiding the tendency of subjective intervention in scheme selection due to artificial setting of weights; at the same time, introducing vectors and summing up the vectors of each indicator make the evaluation results more intuitive.

[0013] Furthermore, in step 3), the normalization method is:

[0014]

[0015] KeyOV i Indicates the normalized value of the i-th planning scheme indicator, KeyValue i It represents the actual result value of the indicator of the i-th planning scheme, and Abs represents the absolute value.

[0016] The beneficial effect of doing this is that each rating indicator can be calculated by collecting data and entering it into a formula, or by expert evaluation and scoring. The indicator result values ​​obtained in various different ways can be calculated through a normalization formula into results under a unified standard, which is conducive to the unification of results.

[0017] Furthermore, in step 4), the direction of each indicator vector is determined by: a) randomly determining the initial direction of any indicator vector; b) rotating the initial direction around any circle center by an angle θ in a clockwise or counterclockwise direction as the direction of another indicator vector; the angle θ is calculated as follows:

[0018]

[0019] Wherein, n is the number of the evaluation indicators.

[0020] Furthermore, in step 1), the evaluation indicators are divided into: technical and economic indicators, energy structure indicators, energy efficiency level indicators, energy conservation and environmental protection indicators, and reliability and safety indicators.

[0021] Furthermore, technical and economic indicators include: total investment, payback period, and internal rate of return.

[0022] Furthermore, the energy structure indicators include: renewable energy utilization rate, proportion of renewable energy heating and cooling installed capacity, and renewable energy heating and cooling penetration rate.

[0023] Furthermore, energy efficiency level indicators include: energy consumption per unit of regional GDP, building energy consumption density, and comprehensive energy utilization efficiency.

[0024] Furthermore, energy conservation and environmental protection indicators include: total energy consumption, energy saving, and reduction rates of greenhouse gas and major pollution emissions.

[0025] Furthermore, reliable and safe indicators include: surplus capacity of energy facilities and reliability of energy supply of energy facilities. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0026] Figure 1 It is the implementation steps of the comprehensive energy scheme evaluation method based on the comprehensive energy index;

[0027] Figure 2 It is the index system constructed by the method of the present invention;

[0028] Figure 3 It is a vector diagram of normalized indicators of the comprehensive energy planning project. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0030] Example:

[0031] The present invention proposes a novel comprehensive energy planning scheme evaluation scheme, which reduces the weight setting link by calculating the comprehensive energy index, and then makes a balanced comparison of the indicators of each scheme to determine the relatively preferred scheme among the candidate plans.

[0032] like Figure 1 As shown, the evaluation method steps of a comprehensive energy planning scheme provided by the present invention are as follows:

[0033] 1) Establish a five-dimensional comprehensive energy rating index system;

[0034] 2) Refine and determine the calculated values ​​of each scheme indicator;

[0035] 3) Horizontal comparison, normalization of sub-item index values ​​under each scheme;

[0036] 4) Construct the indicator vector of each scheme and sum it up;

[0037] 5) Optimize the planning scheme.

[0038] like Figure 2As shown, the comprehensive energy planning decision-making auxiliary index system of the present invention has established two-level indicators: 5 first-level indicators, namely: technical economy, energy structure, energy efficiency level, reliability and safety, energy conservation and environmental protection; 14 second-level indicators, 3 key technical and economic indicators: total investment, investment payback period, internal rate of return; 3 key energy structure indicators: renewable energy utilization rate, proportion of renewable energy heating and cooling installed capacity, renewable energy heating and cooling penetration rate; 3 energy efficiency levels: energy consumption per unit of regional GDP, building energy consumption density, energy comprehensive utilization efficiency; 2 reliability and safety: surplus capacity of energy facilities, reliability of energy supply of energy facilities; 3 energy conservation and environmental protection: total energy consumption, energy saving, greenhouse gas and major pollutant emission reduction rate.

[0039] The actual result value is obtained for each decision indicator of the evaluated project. The actual result value can be obtained by collecting data and entering it into a formula calculation, expert evaluation and scoring, etc. The invention does not limit the acquisition of specific decision indicator results.

[0040] In order to reflect the 14 key auxiliary decision-making indicators in the same dimension and conduct intuitive comparative evaluation and analysis, it is necessary to use the normalization method for each indicator and use the formula to pre-process the data to within 0%-100%.

[0041]

[0042] KeyOV i Indicates the normalized value of the i-th planning scheme indicator, KeyValue i It represents the actual result value of the indicator of the i-th planning scheme, and Abs represents the absolute value.

[0043] After normalization, the solutions are initially screened horizontally to remove solutions with unqualified decision indicators, and the next step of vector design is carried out based on solutions with qualified decision indicators.

[0044] For each indicator, the normalization method is used to pre-process the data and then conduct vector design. The starting point of the vector is O, and the angles of each vector are θ. In this embodiment, 14 decision indicators are listed. Therefore:

[0045]

[0046] The vector length is the normalized index value, that is, Figure 3 As shown, after the space vector summation operation, the comprehensive energy index is solved, and the one with the smallest modulus of the comprehensive energy index vector is the relatively optimal solution among all the solutions.

[0047] Specifically, Figure 3The maximum value of the modulus of the vector corresponding to each decision indicator is 100. The percentage normalized value obtained after normalization of the actual result value of each decision indicator is multiplied by 100 to obtain the actual value of the modulus of the vector corresponding to the decision indicator (the normalized score of the indicator). The vector corresponding to each decision indicator is made into Figure 3 In the vector diagram shown in , the angle between the vectors of each decision indicator is θ. Perform vector summation operation on each decision indicator, and the vector sum obtained is used as the final evaluation vector, that is, the final evaluation result. The evaluation vector as the final evaluation result is plotted on Figure 3 In the vector diagram, the smaller the modulus of the evaluation vector is, the more balanced the project is in various decision indicators and the less biased it is in each subject; the decision indicator to which the evaluation vector points is the more advantageous the project is in that decision indicator.

[0048] The final evaluation vector of the present invention can provide a more intuitive basis and support for comprehensive energy planning decisions, and provide better assistance to decision makers in the selection of different combined energy planning schemes.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating a comprehensive energy planning scheme, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: 1) The total investment, investment payback period, internal rate of return, renewable energy utilization rate, renewable energy heating and cooling penetration rate, renewable energy heating and cooling installed capacity ratio, energy consumption per unit of regional GDP, building energy consumption density, comprehensive energy utilization efficiency, energy facility surplus capacity, energy facility energy supply reliability, total energy consumption, energy saving, greenhouse gas and major pollution emission reduction rate are selected as comprehensive energy evaluation indicators; 2) Obtain the evaluation index result value corresponding to the comprehensive energy planning scheme; 3) Normalizing the result values ​​of each evaluation index to obtain the normalized value of each evaluation index; 4) Construct an indicator vector corresponding to each evaluation indicator, the module of the indicator vector is the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation indicator or is determined by the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation indicator, and the direction of the indicator vector meets the following conditions: randomly determine the initial direction of the indicator vector of the total investment amount, in the counterclockwise direction, and rotate the initial direction by an angle of as the direction of the indicator vector of the next evaluation indicator in the order of listing the evaluation indicators in step 1); 5) Perform vector summation on each indicator vector to obtain an evaluation vector. The smaller the modulus of the evaluation vector is, the better the corresponding comprehensive energy planning scheme is.

2. The evaluation method for a comprehensive energy planning scheme according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step 3), the normalization method is: KeyOV i Indicates the normalized value of the i-th planning scheme indicator, KeyValue i It represents the actual result value of the indicator of the i-th planning scheme, and Abs represents the absolute value.

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