A method, device, storage medium and computing device for setting risk threshold of energy transformation of power grid system

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method, device, storage medium and computing equipment for setting risk thresholds for energy transformation of power grid systems. The method selects investment measures based on the cost-performance ratio of investment measures and a preset reference threshold of the cost-performance ratio of investment measures to obtain a reference risk threshold; then perturbs to generate multiple groups of pending risk threshold sequences, and then selects investment measures based on the reference risk threshold and the cost-performance ratio of investment measures to obtain power grid operation risk sequences and power grid investment cost sequences under each pending risk threshold sequence, and finally determines the optimal risk threshold sequence with the minimum sum of the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence as the risk threshold for each investment year during the energy transformation of the power grid system. The present invention provides a scientific and reasonable formulation scheme for the risk threshold of power grid operation, performs safety analysis and monitoring of power grid operation based on the set risk threshold, meets the safety requirements of power grid operation, and further guides the planning and operation of the power grid system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a method, device, storage medium and computing equipment for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system, and belongs to the field of energy and power technology. Background Art

[0002] The current power system is transforming towards deep low-carbon or zero-carbon, and the transformation path is inseparable from the quantitative assessment of transformation risks.

[0003] At the “system planning layer” of the power grid, the multi-year grid transformation risk threshold setting takes into account the balance between multi-year grid investment and operation risks at an overall level. However, the thresholds for each year are still given based on experience and are somewhat subjective. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, device, storage medium and computing equipment for setting a risk threshold for energy transformation of a power grid system, so as to perform safety analysis and monitoring of power grid operation within the set risk threshold and meet the safety requirements of power grid operation.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0006] A first aspect of the present invention provides a method for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system, comprising:

[0007] Conducting grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the energy transformation process of the grid system, determining a reference risk threshold, and obtaining a reference risk threshold sequence; at least one of the reference risk thresholds is calculated based on a first target investment measure for the corresponding investment year, and the first target investment measure is selected based on an investment measure cost-performance ratio and a preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold;

[0008] Perturbing each element in the reference risk threshold sequence to generate multiple groups of pending risk threshold sequences;

[0009] Conducting grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the process of energy transformation of the grid system year by year, calculating a second grid operation risk value and a grid investment cost based on the pending risk threshold in each group of pending risk threshold sequences, and obtaining a grid operation risk sequence and a grid investment cost sequence; the grid operation risk sequence includes the second grid operation risk value, and the grid investment cost sequence includes the grid investment cost; at least one of the second grid operation risk value and the grid investment cost is calculated based on a second target investment measure for the corresponding investment year; the second target investment measure is selected based on the pending risk threshold and the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure;

[0010] The optimal risk threshold sequence is determined based on the grid operation risk sequence and grid investment cost sequence generated under each pending risk threshold sequence, and the elements in the optimal risk threshold sequence are used as the risk thresholds for the corresponding investment years in the energy transformation process of the grid system.

[0011] Preferably, selecting the first target investment measure based on the investment measure cost-performance ratio and a preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold includes:

[0012] If the assessed grid operation risk value exceeds the limit, the first target investment measure will be selected cyclically for the current investment year until the investment measure cost-performance ratios of all investment measures are greater than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold; if it does not exceed the limit, the first target investment measure will not be selected; the first target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest investment measure cost-performance ratio.

[0013] Preferably, if the first target investment measure is selected for the investment year, the grid operation risk value obtained by evaluation after the first target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the reference risk threshold;

[0014] If the first target investment measure is not selected for the investment year, or there are no available investment measures for the investment year, or the investment measure cost-performance ratios of all available investment measures are greater than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold, the assessed current grid operation risk value will be used as the reference risk threshold for the investment year.

[0015] Preferably, each element in the reference risk threshold sequence is perturbed to generate multiple sets of pending risk threshold sequences, including:

[0016] R test = b·R ref ;

[0017] Among them, R test is the risk threshold sequence to be determined, R ref is the reference risk threshold sequence, b is the perturbation coefficient,

[0018] By adjusting the perturbation coefficient b, multiple sets of pending risk threshold sequences are obtained.

[0019] Preferably, the perturbation coefficient b takes a value of: 2, 3, ...

[0020] Preferably, selecting the second target investment measure based on the undetermined risk threshold and the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure includes:

[0021] If the assessed grid operation risk value is greater than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure is cyclically selected for the current investment year until the grid operation risk value of the selected second target investment measure corresponding to the investment year is less than the pending risk threshold for the investment year; if the assessed grid operation risk value is less than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure is not selected;

[0022] The second target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest investment measure cost-performance ratio.

[0023] Preferably, if the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year, the power grid operation risk value obtained by evaluation after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the second power grid operation risk value for the investment year; the sum of the investment costs of all the second target investment measures after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the power grid investment cost for the investment year;

[0024] If the second target investment measure is not taken for the investment year, the current grid operation risk value obtained by evaluation will be used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year, and the grid investment cost for the investment year will be 0.

[0025] Preferably, the grid operation risk assessment is:

[0026] The grid operation risk value = loss from abandoning new energy + net cost of purchasing electricity + external network backup cost + demand-side response cost + power outage loss + loss cost + emergency control cost.

[0027] Preferably, the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure is calculated as:

[0028]

[0029] Among them, CPR i,n Cost is the cost-performance ratio of investment measure n in investment year i. i,n is the investment cost of investment measure n in investment year i, Perf i,n is the amount of grid operation risk reduced after investment measure n is implemented in investment year i.

[0030] Preferably, determining the optimal risk threshold sequence includes:

[0031] Taking the minimum sum of the grid operation risk sequence and the grid investment cost sequence as the goal, the optimal risk threshold sequence is selected;

[0032] The sum of the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence refers to the sum of all elements in the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence generated under a pending risk threshold sequence.

[0033] Another aspect of the present invention provides a device for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system, comprising:

[0034] A first calculation module is used to conduct grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the energy transformation process of the grid system, determine a reference risk threshold, and obtain a reference risk threshold sequence; at least one of the reference risk thresholds is calculated based on a first target investment measure for the corresponding investment year, and the first target investment measure is selected based on an investment measure cost-performance ratio and a preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold;

[0035] A perturbation module, used to perturb each element in the reference risk threshold sequence to generate multiple groups of pending risk threshold sequences;

[0036] A second calculation module is used to conduct a grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the energy transformation process of the grid system, calculate a second grid operation risk value and a grid investment cost based on the pending risk threshold in each group of pending risk threshold sequences, and obtain a grid operation risk sequence and a grid investment cost sequence; the grid operation risk sequence includes the second grid operation risk value, and the grid investment cost sequence includes the grid investment cost; at least one of the second grid operation risk value and the grid investment cost is calculated based on a second target investment measure for the corresponding investment year; the second target investment measure is selected based on the pending risk threshold and the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure;

[0037] as well as,

[0038] The screening module is used to determine the optimal risk threshold sequence based on the grid operation risk sequence and grid investment cost sequence generated under each pending risk threshold sequence, and use the elements in the optimal risk threshold sequence as the risk threshold for the corresponding investment year during the energy transformation of the grid system. Preferably, the first calculation module is specifically used to:

[0039] If the assessed grid operation risk value exceeds the limit, the first target investment measure will be selected cyclically for the current investment year until the investment measure cost-performance ratios of all investment measures are greater than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold value, and the grid operation risk value assessed after the selection of the first target investment measure for that investment year will be used as the reference risk threshold value; if it does not exceed the limit, the first target investment measure will not be selected, and the current grid operation risk value assessed will be used as the reference risk threshold value for that investment year; wherein the first target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest investment measure cost-performance ratio.

[0040] Preferably, the second calculation module is specifically used for:

[0041] If the evaluated grid operation risk value is greater than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure is cyclically selected for the current investment year until the grid operation risk value of the selected second target investment measure corresponding to the investment year is less than the pending risk threshold for the investment year, and the grid operation risk value evaluated after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year, and the sum of the investment costs of all second target investment measures after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the grid investment cost for the investment year; if the evaluated grid operation risk value is less than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure is not selected, and the current grid operation risk value evaluated is used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year, and the grid investment cost for the investment year is 0; wherein the second target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest cost-performance ratio.

[0042] Preferably, the screening module is specifically used for:

[0043] Taking the minimum sum of the grid operation risk sequence and the grid investment cost sequence as the goal, the optimal risk threshold sequence is selected;

[0044] The sum of the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence refers to the sum of all elements in the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence generated under a pending risk threshold sequence.

[0045] A third aspect of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs include instructions, which, when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the aforementioned methods.

[0046] A fourth aspect of the present invention further provides a computing device, comprising:

[0047] One or more processors, a memory, and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing any of the aforementioned methods.

[0048] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0049] The present invention selects investment measures based on the cost-performance ratio of investment measures and invests them in power grid operation to obtain a reference risk threshold sequence; then perturbs to generate multiple groups of pending risk threshold sequences, and again conducts power grid risk assessment and selects investment measures with the reference risk threshold as the limit, and obtains the power grid operation risk sequence and investment cost sequence under each pending risk threshold sequence, and finally selects the best risk threshold sequence, and conducts power grid operation safety analysis and monitoring with the set risk threshold as the limit, so as to meet the safety requirements of power grid operation, and further guide the planning and operation of the power grid system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0050] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for setting a risk threshold for energy transition of a power grid system according to the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0051] The present invention is further described below. The following examples are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0052] The operation of the power grid must meet a certain risk threshold range. The risk threshold is a macro decision. For example, the Energy Bureau stipulates that the annual wind and solar power abandonment rate must be controlled within 5%. The purpose is to constrain the risk level during operation and prevent losses caused by excessive wind and solar power abandonment. The operating risk value is calculated by deducing the annual operating conditions of the relevant level, and is a measure of the size of the operating risk. Since the setting of the risk threshold is related to the safety of the power grid operation, it is particularly important that its setting value is scientific and reasonable. Based on this, the present invention provides a method for setting the risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system, comprising:

[0053] Conducting grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the process of energy transformation of the grid system, determining a reference risk threshold, and obtaining a reference risk threshold sequence; wherein at least one reference risk threshold is calculated based on a first target investment measure for the corresponding investment year, and the first target investment measure is selected based on an investment measure cost-performance ratio and a preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold;

[0054] Perturb each element in the generated reference risk threshold sequence to generate multiple groups of pending risk threshold sequences;

[0055] Conducting grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the process of energy transformation of the grid system year by year, calculating a second grid operation risk value and a grid investment cost based on the pending risk threshold in each group of pending risk threshold sequences, and obtaining a grid operation risk sequence and a grid investment cost sequence; the grid operation risk sequence includes the second grid operation risk value, and the grid investment cost sequence includes the grid investment cost; at least one of the second grid operation risk value and the grid investment cost is calculated based on a second target investment measure for the corresponding investment year; the second target investment measure is selected based on the pending risk threshold and the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure;

[0056] The optimal risk threshold sequence is determined based on the grid operation risk sequence and grid investment cost sequence generated under each pending risk threshold sequence, and the elements in the optimal risk threshold sequence are used as the risk thresholds for the corresponding investment years in the energy transformation process of the grid system.

[0057] The technical solution of the present invention is described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments.

[0058] Embodiment 1:

[0059] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation in a power grid system, which is used to solve the problem of scientific rationality of the risk threshold formulation method. Figure 1 ,include:

[0060] Step 1: Given an energy transformation path, set a reference threshold for the cost-performance ratio of investment measures;

[0061] Among them, the energy transformation path refers to the installed capacity change curve of the power grid from the starting year to the end year of the transformation, which is disclosed by the invention patent with application number 201911171602.2, an energy transformation optimization method and system taking into account power congestion.

[0062] Step 2: Conduct grid operation risk assessment for the current investment year and select the first target investment measure until the cost-performance ratio of all investment measures exceeds the reference threshold of the cost-performance ratio of investment measures; determine whether there are investment years that have not been processed, if so, return to step 2, otherwise, execute step 3; specifically,

[0063] Conduct a grid operation risk assessment for the investment year, and select the first target investment measure in a loop after the grid operation risk value exceeds the limit. The selection criteria for the first target investment measure are: calculate the cost-performance ratio index after the investment measure is put into grid operation, and select the investment measure with the smallest cost-performance ratio from the investment measures whose cost-performance ratio index is smaller than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold to be put into grid operation; among which, the grid operation risk value exceeding the limit means that the grid operation risk value exceeds the risk threshold preset by the system. If the grid operation risk value does not exceed the limit, there is no need to select the first target investment measure.

[0064] It should be noted that in each round of calculation, a grid operation risk value and the investment cost of the first target investment measure will be obtained. After the calculation of the investment year is completed, the final grid operation risk value is used as the reference risk threshold R for the investment year. ref.i After the investment year is calculated, the sum of the investment costs of the first target investment measures calculated in all rounds is taken as the grid investment cost C for that investment year. ref.i .

[0065] The formula for calculating the cost-performance ratio of investment measures is:

[0066]

[0067] Among them, CPR i,n Cost is the cost-performance ratio of investment measure n in investment year i. i,n is the investment cost of investment measure n in investment year i, Perf i,n is the amount of grid operation risk reduced after investment measure n in investment year i.

[0068] The grid operation risk assessment is still disclosed by the invention patent "An energy transformation optimization method and system taking into account power congestion" with application number 201911171602.2. The grid operation risk value = loss from abandoned new energy + net external power purchase cost + external network backup cost + demand side response cost + power outage loss + loss cost + emergency control cost.

[0069] It should be noted that if there are no available investment measures in an investment year or the investment measure cost-performance ratios of all available investment measures are greater than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold, only the grid operation risk assessment is performed to obtain the current grid operation risk value as the reference risk threshold for the investment year, and the grid investment cost for the investment year is 0.

[0070] It should be noted that if the grid operation risk value in the investment year does not exceed the limit, the calculated current grid operation risk value will be used as the reference risk threshold for the investment year, and the grid investment cost for the investment year will be 0.

[0071] Step 3: Calculate the next investment year in the same way as in step 2 until all investment years are calculated. Then, obtain the reference risk threshold sequence R according to the reference risk threshold of all investment years. ref , according to the grid investment cost of all investment years, we can get the grid investment cost sequence C ref .

[0072] Step 4: For the reference risk threshold sequence R ref The values ​​in are perturbed to generate multiple sets of pending risk threshold sequences;

[0073] The method for generating multiple sets of undetermined risk threshold sequences is as follows: the perturbation coefficient b is introduced and:

[0074] R test = b·R ref

[0075] Among them, R test is the risk threshold sequence to be determined, R ref is the reference risk threshold sequence obtained in step 3, and b is the perturbation coefficient.

[0076] By artificially adjusting the perturbation coefficient b, multiple sets of undetermined risk threshold sequences are obtained. The value of b can be 2, 3, ...

[0077] Step 5: For each set of pending risk threshold sequences, conduct grid operation risk assessment for each investment year and select the second target investment measure until the calculated grid operation risk is less than the pending risk threshold for that investment year; the details are as follows:

[0078] The grid operation risk is evaluated for the investment year. If the calculated grid operation risk value for the investment year is greater than R opt.i If the value is large, the second target investment measure is selected, where R opt.i is the undetermined risk threshold of investment year i in the undetermined risk threshold sequence. The selection criteria for the second target investment measure are: calculate the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure after it is put into power grid operation, and select the investment measure with the smallest cost-performance ratio to be put into power grid operation; if the calculated power grid operation risk value of the investment year is higher than R opt.i If it is small, the second target investment measure selection will not be made;

[0079] The grid operation risk assessment for the investment year and the second objective investment measures are cycled until the calculated grid operation risk value is greater than R opt.i Small, stop choosing the second target investment measure;

[0080] The grid operation risk value obtained by evaluation after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year; the sum of the investment costs of all second target investment measures after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the grid investment cost for the investment year, and the calculation for the next investment year is entered;

[0081] After all investment years are calculated, an operation risk sequence R consisting of the second power grid operation risk value and a power grid investment cost sequence C under the undetermined risk threshold sequence are obtained.

[0082] It should be noted that if the second target investment measure is not taken for an investment year, the current grid operation risk value obtained by evaluation will be used as the second grid operation risk value for that investment year, and the grid investment cost for that investment year will be zero.

[0083] A set of pending risk threshold sequences corresponds to a set of R sequences and C sequences, and finally multiple sets of pending risk threshold sequences correspond to multiple sets of R and C sequences.

[0084] Step 6: Taking the minimum sum of the operation risk sequence R and the grid investment cost sequence C as the goal, select the optimal risk threshold sequence (hereinafter referred to as “R opt ”).

[0085] Among them, the sum of the grid operation risk sequence R and the grid investment cost sequence C refers to the sum of all elements in the two sequences.

[0086] Find an R obtained under the undetermined risk threshold sequence i , C i The sum of the sequences is the smallest.

[0087] Embodiment 2:

[0088] An embodiment of the present invention provides a device for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system, comprising:

[0089] A first calculation module is used to conduct grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the energy transformation process of the grid system, determine a reference risk threshold, and obtain a reference risk threshold sequence; at least one of the reference risk thresholds is calculated based on a first target investment measure for the corresponding investment year, and the first target investment measure is selected based on an investment measure cost-performance ratio and a preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold;

[0090] A perturbation module, used to perturb each element in the reference risk threshold sequence to generate multiple groups of pending risk threshold sequences;

[0091] A second calculation module is used to conduct a grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the energy transformation process of the grid system, calculate a second grid operation risk value and a grid investment cost based on the pending risk threshold in each group of pending risk threshold sequences, and obtain a grid operation risk sequence and a grid investment cost sequence; the grid operation risk sequence includes the second grid operation risk value, and the grid investment cost sequence includes the grid investment cost; at least one of the second grid operation risk value and the grid investment cost is calculated based on a second target investment measure for the corresponding investment year; the second target investment measure is selected based on the pending risk threshold and the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure;

[0092] as well as,

[0093] The screening module is used to determine the optimal risk threshold sequence based on the grid operation risk sequence and grid investment cost sequence generated under each pending risk threshold sequence, and use the elements in the optimal risk threshold sequence as the risk threshold for the corresponding investment year during the energy transformation of the grid system.

[0094] In the embodiment of the present invention, the first calculation module is specifically used for:

[0095] If the assessed grid operation risk value exceeds the limit, the first target investment measure will be selected cyclically for the current investment year until the investment measure cost-performance ratios of all investment measures are greater than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold value, and the grid operation risk value assessed after the selection of the first target investment measure for that investment year will be used as the reference risk threshold value; if it does not exceed the limit, the first target investment measure will not be selected, and the current grid operation risk value assessed will be used as the reference risk threshold value for that investment year; wherein the first target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest investment measure cost-performance ratio.

[0096] In the embodiment of the present invention, the second calculation module is specifically used for:

[0097] If the evaluated grid operation risk value is greater than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure is cyclically selected for the current investment year until the grid operation risk value of the selected second target investment measure corresponding to the investment year is less than the pending risk threshold for the investment year, and the grid operation risk value evaluated after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year, and the sum of the investment costs of all second target investment measures after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the grid investment cost for the investment year; if the evaluated grid operation risk value is less than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure is not selected, and the current grid operation risk value evaluated is used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year, and the grid investment cost for the investment year is 0; wherein the second target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest cost-performance ratio.

[0098] In the embodiment of the present invention, the screening module is specifically used for:

[0099] Taking the minimum sum of the grid operation risk sequence and the grid investment cost sequence as the goal, the optimal risk threshold sequence is selected;

[0100] The sum of the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence refers to the sum of all elements in the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence generated under a pending risk threshold sequence.

[0101] Example 3

[0102] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs include instructions, and when the instructions are executed by a computing device, the computing device executes any one of the aforementioned methods.

[0103] Example 4

[0104] This embodiment provides a computing device, including:

[0105] One or more processors, a memory, and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing any of the aforementioned methods.

[0106] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented in one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that include computer-usable program code.

[0107] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0108] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0109] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0110] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for setting a risk threshold for energy transformation of a power grid system, characterized in that: include: Conduct grid operation risk assessment year by year for each investment year in the process of grid system energy transformation, determine the reference risk threshold, and obtain the reference risk threshold sequence; At least one of the reference risk thresholds is calculated based on the first target investment measure of the corresponding investment year, and the first target investment measure is selected based on the investment measure cost-performance ratio and a preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold, including: if the evaluated grid operation risk value exceeds the limit, the first target investment measure is cyclically selected for the current investment year until the investment measure cost-performance ratios of all investment measures are greater than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold; if it does not exceed the limit, the first target investment measure is not selected; the first target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest investment measure cost-performance ratio; if the first target investment measure is selected for the investment year, the grid operation risk value evaluated after the first target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the reference risk threshold; if the first target investment measure is not selected for the investment year or there is no available investment measure for the investment year or the investment measure cost-performance ratios of all available investment measures are greater than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold, the current grid operation risk value obtained by evaluation is used as the reference risk threshold for the investment year; Perturbing each element in the reference risk threshold sequence to generate multiple groups of pending risk threshold sequences; Conduct grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the process of energy transformation of the grid system year by year, calculate a second grid operation risk value and a grid investment cost based on the pending risk threshold in each group of pending risk threshold sequences, and obtain a grid operation risk sequence and a grid investment cost sequence; the grid operation risk sequence includes the second grid operation risk value, and the grid investment cost sequence includes the grid investment cost; at least one of the second grid operation risk value and the grid investment cost is calculated based on a second target investment measure for the corresponding investment year; the second target investment measure is selected based on the pending risk threshold and the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure, including: if the assessed grid operation risk value is greater than the pending risk threshold, cyclically select the second target investment measure for the current investment year until the selected second target investment measure corresponds to the investment year The grid operation risk value is less than the pending risk threshold for the investment year; if the evaluated grid operation risk value is less than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure is not selected; the second target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest cost-performance ratio; if the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year, the grid operation risk value evaluated after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year; the sum of the investment costs of all second target investment measures after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the grid investment cost for the investment year; if the second target investment measure is not taken for the investment year, the current grid operation risk value evaluated is used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year, and the grid investment cost for the investment year is 0; An optimal risk threshold sequence is determined based on the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence generated under each pending risk threshold sequence, and the elements in the optimal risk threshold sequence are used as the risk thresholds for the corresponding investment years in the energy transformation process of the power grid system; the determination of the optimal risk threshold sequence includes: selecting the optimal risk threshold sequence with the goal of minimizing the sum of the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence; the sum of the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence refers to the sum of all elements in the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence generated under a pending risk threshold sequence.

2. A method for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system according to claim 1, characterized in that: Each element in the reference risk threshold sequence is perturbed to generate multiple sets of pending risk threshold sequences, including: R test =b·R ref ; Among them, R test is the risk threshold sequence to be determined, R ref is the reference risk threshold sequence, b is the perturbation coefficient, By adjusting the perturbation coefficient b, multiple sets of pending risk threshold sequences are obtained.

3. A method for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system according to claim 2, characterized in that: The perturbation coefficient b is an integer greater than 1.

4. A method for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The grid operation risk assessment is as follows: The grid operation risk value = loss from abandoning new energy + net cost of purchasing electricity + external network backup cost + demand-side response cost + power outage loss + loss cost + emergency control cost.

5. A method for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The cost-performance ratio of the investment measures is calculated as: Among them, CPR i,n Cost is the cost-performance ratio of investment measure n in investment year i. i,n is the investment cost of investment measure n in investment year i, Perf i,n is the amount of grid operation risk reduced after investment measure n is implemented in investment year i.

6. A device for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation in a power grid system, characterized in that: The method for setting a risk threshold of energy transformation of a power grid system according to any one of claims 1 to 5 is implemented, and the device comprises: A first calculation module is used to conduct grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the energy transformation process of the grid system, determine a reference risk threshold, and obtain a reference risk threshold sequence; at least one of the reference risk thresholds is calculated based on a first target investment measure for the corresponding investment year, and the first target investment measure is selected based on an investment measure cost-performance ratio and a preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold; A perturbation module, used to perturb each element in the reference risk threshold sequence to generate multiple groups of pending risk threshold sequences; A second calculation module is used to conduct a grid operation risk assessment for each investment year in the energy transformation process of the grid system, calculate a second grid operation risk value and a grid investment cost based on the pending risk threshold in each group of pending risk threshold sequences, and obtain a grid operation risk sequence and a grid investment cost sequence; the grid operation risk sequence includes the second grid operation risk value, and the grid investment cost sequence includes the grid investment cost; at least one of the second grid operation risk value and the grid investment cost is calculated based on a second target investment measure for the corresponding investment year; the second target investment measure is selected based on the pending risk threshold and the cost-performance ratio of the investment measure; as well as, The screening module is used to determine the optimal risk threshold sequence based on the grid operation risk sequence and grid investment cost sequence generated under each pending risk threshold sequence, and use the elements in the optimal risk threshold sequence as the risk threshold for the corresponding investment year during the energy transformation of the grid system.

7. A device for setting a risk threshold value for energy transition of a power grid system according to claim 6, characterized in that: The first calculation module is specifically used for: If the evaluated grid operation risk value exceeds the limit, the first target investment measure is selected cyclically for the current investment year until the investment measure cost-performance ratios of all investment measures are greater than the preset investment measure cost-performance ratio reference threshold, and the grid operation risk value obtained after the selection of the first target investment measure for the investment year is completed is used as the reference risk threshold; If the limit is not exceeded, the first target investment measure will not be selected, and the current grid operation risk value obtained by evaluation will be used as the reference risk threshold for the investment year; wherein, the first target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest investment measure cost-performance ratio.

8. A device for setting a risk threshold value for energy transition of a power grid system according to claim 6, characterized in that: The second calculation module is specifically used for: If the evaluated grid operation risk value is greater than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure is cyclically selected for the current investment year until the grid operation risk value of the selected second target investment measure corresponding to the investment year is less than the pending risk threshold for the investment year, and the grid operation risk value evaluated after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the second grid operation risk value for the investment year, and the sum of the investment costs of all second target investment measures after the second target investment measure is selected for the investment year is used as the grid investment cost for the investment year; If the assessed grid operation risk value is smaller than the pending risk threshold, the second target investment measure will not be selected, and the assessed current grid operation risk value will be used as the second grid operation risk value for that investment year, and the grid investment cost for that investment year will be 0; wherein the second target investment measure selected each time is the investment measure with the smallest cost-performance ratio.

9. A device for setting a risk threshold value for energy transition of a power grid system according to claim 6, characterized in that: The screening module is specifically used for: Taking the minimum sum of the grid operation risk sequence and the grid investment cost sequence as the goal, the optimal risk threshold sequence is selected; The sum of the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence refers to the sum of all elements in the power grid operation risk sequence and the power grid investment cost sequence generated under a pending risk threshold sequence.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, characterized in that: The one or more programs include instructions which, when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any one of the methods of claims 1 to 5 .

11. A computing device, characterized in that: include, One or more processors, a memory, and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing any one of the methods described in claims 1 to 5.

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