A method, device and electronic equipment for predicting water demand of river ecological environment

Abstract

This invention provides a method, apparatus, and electronic device for predicting the ecological water demand of rivers. The method includes: acquiring total river runoff data over multiple time periods; determining the variation time using the total river runoff data over multiple time periods; establishing a runoff probability density function and a runoff distribution function including time-varying variables; solving for the time-varying variables in the runoff probability density function using the total river runoff data over multiple time periods to obtain a first time-varying parameter and a second time-varying parameter; calculating the ecological water demand of the river using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function; and obtaining the guarantee rate using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function. This invention confirms the ecological water demand and guarantee rate of rivers through the first time-varying parameter, the second time-varying parameter, the runoff probability density function, and the runoff distribution function, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the ecological water demand of rivers.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of ecological environment, and in particular to a method, device and electronic equipment for predicting water demand of ecological environment of a river. Background Art

[0002] Rivers are an important part of the ecosystem. They are the most biodiverse ecological landscape in nature and one of the most important ecological environments for human survival. Due to the impact of climate change, the runoff of rivers has changed, and the runoff of some rivers has decreased. In order to maintain the stability of the river's ecological environment, relevant technologies strengthen the regulation of river runoff and supplement the ecological environment water demand of rivers to meet the ecological environment needs of rivers. However, due to the direct transformation of rivers by human activities, such as the construction of water conservancy projects, the runoff of rivers has changed significantly. The prediction of the ecological environment water demand of rivers in relevant technologies is difficult to adapt to the changes in the ecological environment of rivers, resulting in a low accuracy rate in the prediction of the ecological environment water demand of rivers.

[0003] It can be seen that the relevant technology has the problem of low accuracy in predicting the ecological environment water demand of rivers. Summary of the invention

[0004] The embodiments of the present invention provide a method, device and electronic device for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river, so as to solve the problem of low accuracy in predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river in the related art.

[0005] To solve the above problems, the present invention is achieved as follows:

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river, comprising:

[0007] Obtain river runoff data for multiple time periods;

[0008] Determining the variation time using the river runoff volume data for the plurality of time periods;

[0009] Establishing a runoff probability density function including a time-varying variable and a runoff distribution function including the time-varying variable, wherein the runoff probability density function is used to represent the probability density of the river runoff in each of the multiple time periods, and the runoff distribution function is used to represent the probability distribution of the river runoff in the multiple time periods, and the time-varying variable is used to represent the change of the river runoff information over time in the multiple time periods, and the river runoff information includes the location of the river, the scale of the river and the shape of the river;

[0010] Solving the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density using the river runoff volume data of the multiple time periods to obtain a first time-varying parameter and a second time-varying parameter, wherein the first time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river before the variation time over time, and the second time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river after the variation time over time;

[0011] The ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function;

[0012] The guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0013] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a device for predicting water demand of an ecological environment of a river, comprising:

[0014] An acquisition module is used to obtain the total river runoff data for multiple time periods;

[0015] A first processing module is used to determine the variation time using the river runoff volume data of the plurality of time periods;

[0016] A second processing module is used to establish a runoff probability density function including a time-varying variable and a runoff distribution function including the time-varying variable, wherein the runoff probability density function is used to represent the probability density of the river runoff in each of the multiple time periods, and the runoff distribution function is used to represent the probability distribution of the river runoff in the multiple time periods, and the time-varying variable is used to represent the change of the river runoff information over time in the multiple time periods, and the river runoff information includes the location of the river, the scale of the river and the shape of the river;

[0017] A third processing module is used to solve the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density by using the river runoff volume data of the multiple time periods to obtain a first time-varying parameter and a second time-varying parameter, wherein the first time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river before the variation time with time, and the second time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river after the variation time with time;

[0018] A fourth processing module, configured to calculate the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function;

[0019] The fifth processing module is used to calculate the guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0020] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device comprising a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the computer program is executed by the processor, the steps in the method for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river as described in the first aspect above are implemented.

[0021] In an embodiment of the present invention, the ecological environmental water demand and guarantee rate of a river are confirmed by using the first time-varying parameter, the second time-varying parameter, the runoff probability density function, the runoff distribution function and the runoff distribution function, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the ecological environmental water demand of the river. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0022] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the accompanying drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments of the present invention will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the accompanying drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other accompanying drawings can be obtained based on these accompanying drawings without paying creative labor.

[0023] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for predicting water demand of ecological environment of a river provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 2 It is a structural diagram of a device for predicting water demand of an ecological environment of a river provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0025] Figure 3 It is a structural diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0026] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0027] See also Figure 1 , Figure 1 : is a flow chart of a method for predicting water demand of an ecological environment of a river provided by an embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0028] Step 101: Obtain river runoff data for multiple time periods.

[0029] The time periods can be time periods in different years or time periods in different seasons. In order to reduce the impact of seasonal climate, the multiple time periods are usually set as time periods in multiple years, for example, the total river runoff from March to April every year from 1980 to 1990 is obtained.

[0030] Step 102: Determine the variation time using the river runoff volume data of the multiple time periods.

[0031] With the development of human activities and urban and rural construction, the speed of change of the ecological environment around rivers has accelerated, resulting in the accelerated change of river runoff. It is necessary to determine the variation time in multiple time periods. Before the variation time, human activities have less impact on the river, and after the variation time, human activities have greater impact on the river. The ecological environment water demand of the river can be confirmed through the total river runoff data before the variation time, and the guarantee rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river can be verified through the total river runoff data after the variation time.

[0032] Step 103: Establish a runoff probability density function including time-varying variables and a runoff distribution function including the time-varying variables, wherein the runoff probability density function is used to represent the probability density of the river runoff in each of the multiple time periods, and the runoff distribution function is used to represent the probability distribution of the river runoff in the multiple time periods. The time-varying variables are used to represent the change of the river runoff information over time in the multiple time periods, and the river runoff information includes the location of the river, the scale of the river, and the shape of the river.

[0033] The runoff probability density function represents the possible runoff values ​​of a river in different time periods. Since the runoff of a river is affected by the ecological environment around the river, the runoff probability density function is set to include time-varying variables. The time-varying variables represent the changes in the position, scale and shape of the river over time, so that a changing relationship between runoff and time is established, that is, the runoff probability density function.

[0034] The runoff probability density function is a density function of a non-stationary probability distribution, which may be a generalized extreme value distribution, a Pearson type III distribution, or a Gumbel distribution.

[0035] The runoff distribution function represents the distribution of river runoff in different time periods. Since the runoff of a river is affected by the ecological environment around the river, the runoff distribution function is also set to include time-varying variables. The time-varying variables represent the changes in the position, scale and shape of the river over time, so that the distribution of runoff establishes a changing relationship with time, that is, the runoff distribution function.

[0036] Step 104: Use the total river runoff data of the multiple time periods to solve the time-varying variables in the runoff probability density to obtain a first time-varying parameter and a second time-varying parameter, wherein the first time-varying parameter is used to represent how the runoff information of the river before the variation time changes over time, and the second time-varying parameter is used to represent how the runoff information of the river after the variation time changes over time.

[0037] The total amount of river runoff data before the variation time is used to solve the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density to obtain a first time-varying parameter; the total amount of river runoff data after the variation time is used to solve the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density to obtain a second time-varying parameter. This step is performed simultaneously to obtain the first time-varying parameter and the second time-varying parameter.

[0038] It is understandable that there are differences in the time-varying variables before the mutation time and the time-varying variables after the mutation time. The river runoff before the mutation time changes slightly, while the river runoff after the mutation time changes significantly. Therefore, in this embodiment, the time-varying variable before the mutation time is set to an unknown constant value, and the time-varying variable after the mutation time is set to a changing function to describe the impact of human activities on the river ecological environment, thereby establishing a runoff probability density function that can accurately describe the change in the total amount of river runoff.

[0039] It can be understood that since both the runoff distribution function and the runoff probability density function include time-varying variables, the first time-varying parameter is confirmed by the runoff probability density function, so the second time-varying parameter is also confirmed by the runoff probability density function, and then the second time-varying parameter is brought into the runoff distribution function to verify whether the ecological environment water demand of the river obtained by solving the runoff probability density function meets the environmental demand, that is, the guarantee rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river. For example, if the guarantee threshold is set to 90%, when the guarantee rate obtained by solving is 75%, the monitoring of the surrounding environment of the river is strengthened, and the ecological environment water demand is regulated within a reasonable range.

[0040] Step 105: Calculate the ecological environment water demand of the river using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0041] The ecological environment water demand of the river is confirmed by the first time-varying parameter, the probability density function of the runoff and the distribution function of the runoff, which improves the prediction accuracy of the ecological environment water demand of the river. After confirming the ecological environment water demand of the river, the ecological environment water demand is supplemented to the river through regulation to maintain the stability of the ecological environment around the river.

[0042] Step 106: Calculate the guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0043] The second time-varying parameter can represent the impact of human activities on the river after the variation time period. The guaranteed rate of the environmental water demand of the river after the variation time period can be obtained through the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0044] In an embodiment of the present invention, the ecological environmental water demand and guarantee rate of a river are confirmed by using the first time-varying parameter, the second time-varying parameter, the runoff probability density function and the runoff distribution function, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the ecological environmental water demand of the river.

[0045] In one embodiment, the sum of the variance of the river runoff volume data before the variation time and the variance of the river runoff volume data after the variation time is the smallest year among the multiple years;

[0046] The mutation time is determined by the following formula:

[0047]

[0048] τ is the variation time, is the average value of the total runoff data of the river before time τ, is the average value of the total runoff data of the river after time τ, Q i,t is the total river runoff data of time period t within time period i, and GD is used to represent the minimum value of the sum of the variance of the total river runoff data before time τ and the variance of the total river runoff data after time τ.

[0049] In this embodiment, the total amount of river runoff changes smoothly during the variation time. In this embodiment, the variation time is measured by variance. The time period with the smallest variance between the total amount of river runoff data before multiple time periods and the total amount of river runoff data after the variation time is set as the variation time, and the total amount of river runoff before and after the variation time transitions smoothly.

[0050] In one embodiment, the time-varying variables include position variables, scale variables and shape variables, the first time-varying parameters include a first position parameter, a first scale parameter and a first shape parameter, and the second time-varying parameters include a second position parameter, a second scale parameter and a second shape parameter;

[0051] The method of solving the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density by using the river runoff total volume data of the multiple time periods to obtain the first time-varying parameter and the second time-varying parameter includes:

[0052] Determining a likelihood function of the runoff probability density function, the likelihood function comprising the location variable, the scale variable, and the shape variable;

[0053] Solving the likelihood function using the river runoff data of the multiple time periods to obtain the first location parameter, the first scale parameter, the first shape parameter, the second location parameter, the second scale parameter, and the second shape parameter;

[0054] Calculating the ecological environment water demand of the river using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function includes:

[0055] The ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the first time-varying parameters including the first position parameter, the first scale parameter, the first shape parameter and the runoff distribution function;

[0056] The method of calculating the guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function includes:

[0057] The guarantee rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the second position parameter, the second scale parameter, the second shape parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0058] In this embodiment, the time-varying variables in the likelihood function of the probability density function of the runoff are solved by the maximum likelihood estimation method and the likelihood comparison test method, so as to determine the optimal parameter set, i.e., the first time-varying parameter. Similarly, the time-varying variables in the likelihood function of the probability density function of the runoff can also be solved by the maximum likelihood estimation method and the likelihood comparison test method to obtain the second time-varying parameter. By measuring the location, scale, shape and other information of the river, the ecological environment water demand of the river can be closer to the ecological water demand of the actual river.

[0059] In addition, the total river runoff data after the variation time period in multiple time periods are used to solve the time-varying variables in the likelihood function to obtain the second time-varying parameter. The second time-varying parameter is different from the first time-varying parameter and needs to characterize the impact of changes in green infrastructure around the river on the river runoff. The index values ​​of green infrastructure are normalized values ​​such as vegetation index, terrace area, silted land area, soil and water conservation rate, and vegetation coverage. The second time-varying parameter is a mixed linear function composed of green infrastructure indicators. The variable values ​​in the mixed linear function are obtained by maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood comparison test methods, and then the second position parameter, second scale parameter, and second shape parameter are determined. See the subsequent embodiments for details.

[0060] In one embodiment, the runoff probability density function is as follows:

[0061] g(Q y,t ;μ(y,t),σ(y,t),ξ(y,t)),y=1,2,…,n

[0062] g() is used to represent the runoff probability density function, Q y,t is the total river runoff data for time period t within time period y, μ(y, t) is the location variable, σ(y, t) is the scale variable, ξ(y, t) is the shape variable, and n is a constant greater than 1;

[0063] The likelihood function is determined by the following formula:

[0064]

[0065] L() is used to represent the likelihood function;

[0066] The ecological environment water demand of the river is determined by the following formula:

[0067]

[0068] Q b,t It is used to represent the ecological environment water demand of the river in time period t corresponding to the guaranteed frequency P before the variation year, F -1 () represents the inverse function of the runoff distribution function, is the first position parameter, is the first scale parameter, is the first shape parameter, P represents the set guaranteed frequency, and P is a constant;

[0069] The guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is determined by the following formula:

[0070]

[0071] ZP t It is used to represent the ecological environment water demand guarantee rate of the river; F() is the runoff distribution function; Q b,t The water demand for the ecological environment of the river; is the second position parameter; is the second scale parameter; is the second shape parameter.

[0072] In this embodiment, the runoff probability density function includes time-varying variables, namely, position variables, scale variables and shape variables, and the likelihood function of the runoff probability density function also includes position variables, scale variables and shape variables. The likelihood function is estimated by the maximum likelihood method and the likelihood comparison test method to obtain the first position parameter, the first scale parameter and the first shape parameter. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used to solve the likelihood function and is determined by the following formula:

[0073] D=ln{L(μ(y,t),σ(y,t),ξ(y,t))}

[0074] D is an unknown constant. When D is the largest, the maximum likelihood estimation method is used to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the location variable, scale variable, and shape variable. The first location parameter can be obtained by using the total river runoff data before the variable time period in multiple time periods. First scale parameter and the first shape parameter

[0075] After obtaining the first position parameter, the first scale parameter and the first shape parameter, the ecological environment water demand of the river can be calculated with the runoff distribution function. The guaranteed frequency P is set for the ecological environment water demand of the river. Usually, the value of P is 95%, which can be adjusted accordingly as needed. Substitute the first position parameter, the first scale parameter, the first shape parameter and the guaranteed frequency into the formula to obtain the ecological environment water demand of the river.

[0076] Similarly, after obtaining the second position parameter, the second scale parameter and the second shape parameter, the ecological environment water demand of the river can be calculated with the runoff distribution function, which will not be repeated here.

[0077] In one embodiment, before the mutation time, the time-varying variable is a constant, and the first location parameter, the first scale parameter, and the first shape parameter are constants.

[0078] It is understandable that the ecological environment of the river was less affected by human activities before the variation time. At this time, the time-varying variables are regarded as constants for calculation, and the water requirement for maintaining the ecological environment of the river without interference from human activities can be obtained.

[0079] In one embodiment, after the mutation time, the time-varying variable is a mixed linear function of green infrastructure data, and the time-varying variable is determined by the following formula:

[0080]

[0081]

[0082]

[0083] β k,t is a constant, where k = 0, 1, 2, ..., 3m + 2, m is a constant; X y,j Used to represent the normalized value of green infrastructure, X y,j is a constant, where j = 1, 2, …, m, and j is used to represent the category of green infrastructure.

[0084] It is understandable that after the variation time, the ecological environment of the river is increasingly affected by human activities. At this time, treating the time-varying variables as constants cannot reflect the impact of human activities. It is necessary to set the time-varying variables as mixed linear functions of green infrastructure data.

[0085] After determining the second position parameter, the second scale parameter, and the second shape parameter, the second position parameter, the second scale parameter, and the second shape parameter are substituted into the runoff distribution function to obtain the following formula:

[0086]

[0087] Q y,t is the ecological environment water demand of the river in time period t within time period y, is the second position parameter, is the second scale parameter, is the second shape parameter, and F() is the runoff distribution function.

[0088] Specifically, the total river runoff data after the variable time period in multiple time periods are used to solve the time-varying variables of the likelihood function through maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood comparison test methods to obtain β 0,t , β j,t , β m+1,t , β j+m+1,t , β 2m+2,t and β j+2m+2,t After determining the second position parameter, the second scale parameter and the second shape parameter, the second position parameter, the second scale parameter, the second shape parameter and the runoff distribution function are brought into the formula related to the guarantee rate of the ecological environment water demand of the above-mentioned river, and the ecological environment water demand of the river Q can be obtained. b,t Guaranteed rate ZP after the variation period t . At the guaranteed rate ZP t If the demand is met, the ecological environment water demand Q of the river will be used b,t Replenish water, while ensuring the rate ZP t If the requirements are not met, the parameters in the function can be further optimized to improve the guarantee rate ZP t .

[0089] It can be understood that this prediction method takes into account the development of the river's green infrastructure, as well as the need for the river's ecological environment to maintain and perform certain ecological and environmental functions. It can provide a basis for certain water resource regulation for the restoration and development of the river.

[0090] To further illustrate the method for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river according to the present invention, a certain river is taken as an example to further illustrate the prediction method.

[0091] Obtain river runoff data for multiple time periods. Obtain river runoff data for each July to October from 1970 to 2020. From an empirical perspective, human activities have gradually intensified their impact on rivers since 1980, and changes in underlying surface conditions such as vegetation, soil, water surface, and cultivated land have led to changes in water cycle elements such as infiltration, runoff, and evapotranspiration, causing significant changes in river runoff. Using data from 1970 to 2020 can effectively cover possible time periods of variation.

[0092] The variation period was determined by using the river runoff data of multiple time periods. The variance before the variation period and the variance and minimum value after the variation period confirmed that the variation period was from July to October 1990.

[0093] Establish a probability density function of runoff including time-varying variables and a distribution function of runoff including time-varying variables. The probability density function of runoff is the probability density function of the runoff of the river in multiple years, and the runoff distribution function is a function of the distribution of the river runoff in the multiple time periods. Among them, the total runoff data of the river before the variable time period changes little, in which case the time-varying variable is a constant with a solution.

[0094] The total runoff data of rivers before the variation time period in multiple time periods are used to solve the time-varying variables in the probability density function of runoff. The maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood comparison test methods are used to solve the first time-varying parameters, where the value of the first location parameter is 4.2, the value of the first scale parameter is 10, and the value of the first shape parameter is 3.8.

[0095] The ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function. The first position parameter value is 4.2, the first scale parameter value is 10, the first shape parameter value is 3.8, and the runoff distribution density function is used to ensure that the frequency is 95%. The ecological environment water demand of the river is 350 million cubic meters. This ecological environment water demand can meet the ecological environment demand of the river before the variation period of 1990 with a probability of 95%.

[0096] After calculating the environmental water demand, the total river runoff data after the variation time period in multiple time periods is used to solve the time-varying variables in the runoff probability density to obtain the second time-varying parameter. Among them, the second time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff information of the river after the variation time period over time. The second time-varying parameter needs to be quantified as a parameter related to the index value of green infrastructure. The green infrastructure index value of the upstream basin of the river section is obtained year by year by combining remote sensing images with statistical surveys. The maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood comparison test method are used to solve and obtain the second position parameter, where the second position parameter is 4.4+5.2×X j,t , the second scale parameter is 6.8+1.7×X j,t , the second shape parameter is 9+0.3×X j,t .

[0097] The guarantee rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function. The ecological environment water demand of the river is 350 million cubic meters. The guarantee rate of the ecological environment water demand after the variation year 1990 is calculated using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function. For example, the guarantee rate in 2001 is 90%, that is, the ecological environment water demand can meet the ecological environment demand of the river in the variation time period 2001 with a probability of 90%.

[0098] See also Figure 2 , Figure 2 is a structural diagram of a device for predicting water demand of an ecological environment of a river provided by an embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 2 As shown, the river ecological environment water demand prediction device 200 includes:

[0099] An acquisition module 201 is used to acquire river runoff volume data for multiple time periods;

[0100] A first processing module 202 is used to determine the variation time using the river runoff volume data of the multiple time periods;

[0101] The second processing module 203 is used to establish a runoff probability density function including a time-varying variable and a runoff distribution function including the time-varying variable, wherein the runoff probability density function is used to represent the probability density of the river runoff in each of the multiple time periods, and the runoff distribution function is used to represent the probability distribution of the river runoff in the multiple time periods, and the time-varying variable is used to represent the change of the river runoff information over time in the multiple time periods, and the river runoff information includes the location of the river, the scale of the river and the shape of the river;

[0102] The third processing module 204 is used to solve the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density by using the river runoff volume data of the multiple time periods to obtain a first time-varying parameter and a second time-varying parameter, wherein the first time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river before the variation time with time, and the second time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river after the variation time with time;

[0103] The fourth processing module 205 is used to calculate the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0104] The fifth processing module 206 is used to calculate the guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0105] Optionally, the acquisition module 201 includes:

[0106] An acquisition unit, used to acquire the measured river runoff in the multiple time periods, the total amount of diversion runoff in the multiple time periods, the total amount of pumping runoff in the multiple time periods, and the water storage variables of the reservoir in the multiple time periods;

[0107] The first calculation unit is used to add the measured river runoff in the multiple time periods, the total water diversion runoff in the multiple time periods, the total water lift runoff in the multiple time periods and the water storage variables of the reservoir in the multiple time periods to obtain the total river runoff data in the multiple time periods.

[0108] Optionally, the sum of the variance of the river runoff volume data before the variation time and the variance of the river runoff volume data after the variation time is the smallest year among the multiple years;

[0109] The mutation time is determined by the following formula:

[0110]

[0111] τ is the variation time, is the average value of the total runoff data of the river before time τ, is the average value of the total runoff data of the river after time τ, Q i,t is the total river runoff data of time period t within time period i, and GD is used to represent the minimum value of the sum of the variance of the total river runoff data before time τ and the variance of the total river runoff data after time τ.

[0112] Optionally, the time-varying variable includes a position variable, a scale variable and a shape variable, the first time-varying parameter includes a first position parameter, a first scale parameter and a first shape parameter, and the second time-varying parameter includes a second position parameter, a second scale parameter and a second shape parameter;

[0113] The third processing module 204 includes:

[0114] a second computing unit, configured to determine a likelihood function of the runoff probability density function, wherein the likelihood function includes the location variable, the scale variable, and the shape variable;

[0115] a third calculation unit, configured to solve the likelihood function by using the river runoff volume data of the multiple time periods to obtain the first location parameter, the first scale parameter, the first shape parameter, the second location parameter, the second scale parameter, and the second shape parameter;

[0116] The fourth processing module 205 includes:

[0117] a fourth calculation unit, configured to calculate the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the first time-varying parameters including the first position parameter, the first scale parameter, the first shape parameter and the runoff distribution function;

[0118] The fifth processing module 206 includes:

[0119] The fifth calculation unit is used to calculate the guarantee rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the second position parameter, the second scale parameter, the second shape parameter and the runoff distribution function.

[0120] Optionally, the runoff probability density function is as follows:

[0121] g(Q y,t ;μ(y,t),σ(y,t),ξ(y,t)),y=1,2,…,n

[0122] g() is used to represent the runoff probability density function, Q y,t is the total river runoff data for time period t within time period y, μ(y, t) is the location variable, σ(y, t) is the scale variable, ξ(y, t) is the shape variable, and n is a constant greater than 1;

[0123] The likelihood function is determined by the following formula:

[0124]

[0125] L() is used to represent the likelihood function;

[0126] The ecological environment water demand of the river is determined by the following formula:

[0127]

[0128] Q b,t It is used to represent the ecological environment water demand of the river in time period t corresponding to the guaranteed frequency P before the variation year, F -1 () represents the inverse function of the runoff distribution function, is the first position parameter, is the first scale parameter, is the first shape parameter, P represents the set guaranteed frequency, and P is a constant;

[0129] The guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is determined by the following formula:

[0130]

[0131] ZP t It is used to represent the ecological environment water demand guarantee rate of the river; F() is the runoff distribution function; Q b,t The water demand for the ecological environment of the river; is the second position parameter; is the second scale parameter; is the second shape parameter.

[0132] Optionally, before the mutation time, the time-varying variable is a constant, and the first position parameter, the first scale parameter and the first shape parameter are constants.

[0133] Optionally, after the mutation time, the time-varying variable is a mixed linear function of green infrastructure data, and the time-varying variable is confirmed by the following formula:

[0134]

[0135]

[0136]

[0137] β k,t is a constant, where k = 0, 1, 2, ..., 3m + 2, m is a constant; X y,j Used to represent the normalized value of green infrastructure, X y,j is a constant, where j = 1, 2, …, m, and j is used to represent the category of green infrastructure.

[0138] The device for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river provided in an embodiment of the present invention can realize the various processes of the various embodiments of the above-mentioned method for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river. The technical features correspond one to one and can achieve the same technical effect. To avoid repetition, they will not be described here.

[0139] It should be noted that the device for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river in the embodiment of the present invention may be a device, or a component, an integrated circuit, or a chip in an electronic device.

[0140] The embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, see Figure 3 , Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by the present invention, the electronic device includes a memory 301, a processor 302 and a program or instruction stored in the memory 301 and running thereon, and when the program or instruction is executed by the processor 302, it can be realized Figure 1 Any steps in the corresponding method embodiments and achieving the same beneficial effects will not be repeated here.

[0141] The processor 302 may be a CPU, an ASIC, an FPGA or a GPU.

[0142] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the steps of implementing the above-mentioned embodiment method can be completed by hardware related to program instructions, and the program can be stored in a readable medium.

[0143] The embodiment of the present invention further provides a readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the above Figure 1 Any steps in the corresponding method embodiments can achieve the same technical effect, and will not be described here to avoid repetition. Storage media, such as read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disk or optical disk, etc.

[0144] The terms "first", "second" etc. in the embodiments of the present invention are used to distinguish similar objects, and need not be used to describe a specific order or sequential order. In addition, the terms "include" and "have" and any variation thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions, for example, the process, method, system, product or equipment comprising a series of steps or units need not be limited to those steps or units clearly listed, but may include other steps or units that are not clearly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products or equipment. In addition, "and / or" is used in the present application to represent at least one of the connected objects, such as A and / or B and / or C, indicating that A alone, B alone, C alone, and A and B all exist, B and C all exist, A and C all exist, and 7 situations in which A, B and C all exist.

[0145] It should be noted that, in this article, the terms "include", "comprises" or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, an element defined by the sentence "comprises a ..." does not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the element.

[0146] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present application, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium (such as ROM / RAM, a disk, or an optical disk), and includes a number of instructions for a terminal (which can be a mobile phone, a computer, a server, an air conditioner, or a second terminal device, etc.) to execute the methods of each embodiment of the present application.

[0147] The embodiments of the present application are described above in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but the present application is not limited to the above-mentioned specific implementation methods. The above-mentioned specific implementation methods are merely illustrative and not restrictive. Under the guidance of the present application, ordinary technicians in this field can also make many forms without departing from the purpose of the present application and the scope of protection of the claims, all of which are within the protection of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river, characterized in that: include: Obtain river runoff data for multiple time periods; Determining the variation time using the river runoff volume data for the plurality of time periods; Establishing a runoff probability density function including a time-varying variable and a runoff distribution function including the time-varying variable, wherein the runoff probability density function is used to represent the probability density of the river runoff in each of the multiple time periods, and the runoff distribution function is used to represent the probability distribution of the river runoff in the multiple time periods, and the time-varying variable is used to represent the change of the river runoff information over time in the multiple time periods, and the river runoff information includes the location of the river, the scale of the river and the shape of the river; Solving the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density using the river runoff volume data of the multiple time periods to obtain a first time-varying parameter and a second time-varying parameter, wherein the first time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river before the variation time over time, and the second time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river after the variation time over time; The ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function; The guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated by using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function; The method of obtaining the total amount of river runoff data for multiple time periods includes: Obtaining the measured river runoff in the multiple time periods, as well as the total amount of diverted runoff in the multiple time periods, the total amount of lifted runoff in the multiple time periods, and the water storage variables of the reservoirs in the multiple time periods; Adding the measured river runoff in the multiple time periods, the total water diversion runoff in the multiple time periods, the total water lift runoff in the multiple time periods and the water storage variables of the reservoir in the multiple time periods to obtain the total river runoff data in the multiple time periods; The sum of the variance of the total amount of river runoff data before the variation time and the variance of the total amount of river runoff data after the variation time is the smallest time period among the multiple time periods; The mutation time is determined by the following formula: ； is the variation time, For in time The average of the total river runoff data mentioned above, For in time The average value of the total river runoff data is then is the total runoff data of the river in time period t within time period i, and GD is used to represent the variance of the total runoff data of the river before time and at time The minimum value of the sum of the variances of the total river runoff data; The time-varying variables include position variables, scale variables and shape variables, the first time-varying parameters include first position parameters, first scale parameters and first shape parameters, and the second time-varying parameters include second position parameters, second scale parameters and second shape parameters; The ecological environment water demand of the river is determined by the following formula: ； It is used to represent the ecological environment water demand of the river corresponding to the guaranteed frequency P in time period t before the variation time, represents the inverse function of the runoff distribution function, is the first position parameter, is the first scale parameter, is the first shape parameter, P represents the set guaranteed frequency, and P is a constant; The guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is determined by the following formula: ； Used to indicate the guaranteed rate of water demand for the ecological environment of the river; is the runoff distribution function; The water demand for the ecological environment of the river; is the second position parameter; is the second scale parameter; is the second shape parameter.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method of solving the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density by using the river runoff total volume data of the multiple time periods to obtain the first time-varying parameter and the second time-varying parameter includes: Determining a likelihood function of the runoff probability density function, the likelihood function comprising the location variable, the scale variable, and the shape variable; Solving the likelihood function using the river runoff data of the multiple time periods to obtain the first location parameter, the first scale parameter, the first shape parameter, the second location parameter, the second scale parameter, and the second shape parameter; Calculating the ecological environment water demand of the river using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function includes: The ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the first time-varying parameters including the first position parameter, the first scale parameter, the first shape parameter and the runoff distribution function; The method of calculating the guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function includes: The guarantee rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is calculated using the second position parameter, the second scale parameter, the second shape parameter and the runoff distribution function.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The runoff probability density function is as follows: ； It is used to represent the probability density function of runoff volume, is the total river runoff data for period t within time period y, is the position variable, is the scale variable, is the shape variable, and n is a constant greater than 1; The likelihood function is determined by the following formula: ； Used to represent the likelihood function.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that Before the mutation time, the time-varying variable is a constant, and the first location parameter, the first scale parameter, and the first shape parameter are constants.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that: After the mutation time, the time-varying variable is a mixed linear function of the green infrastructure data, and the time-varying variable is determined by the following formula: ； ； ； is a constant, where , m is a constant; A normalized value used to represent green infrastructure. is a constant, where j is used to represent the category of green infrastructure.

6. A device for predicting water demand of ecological environment of a river, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module is used to obtain the total river runoff data for multiple time periods; A first processing module is used to determine the variation time using the river runoff volume data of the plurality of time periods; A second processing module is used to establish a runoff probability density function including a time-varying variable and a runoff distribution function including the time-varying variable, wherein the runoff probability density function is used to represent the probability density of the river runoff in each of the multiple time periods, and the runoff distribution function is used to represent the probability distribution of the river runoff in the multiple time periods, and the time-varying variable is used to represent the change of the river runoff information over time in the multiple time periods, and the river runoff information includes the location of the river, the scale of the river and the shape of the river; A third processing module is used to solve the time-varying variable in the runoff probability density by using the river runoff volume data of the multiple time periods to obtain a first time-varying parameter and a second time-varying parameter, wherein the first time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river before the variation time with time, and the second time-varying parameter is used to represent the change of the runoff volume information of the river after the variation time with time; A fourth processing module, configured to calculate the ecological environment water demand of the river by using the first time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function; A fifth processing module, configured to calculate a guaranteed rate of ecological environment water demand of the river by using the second time-varying parameter and the runoff distribution function; The acquisition module comprises: An acquisition unit, used to acquire the measured river runoff in the multiple time periods, the total amount of diversion runoff in the multiple time periods, the total amount of pumping runoff in the multiple time periods, and the water storage variables of the reservoir in the multiple time periods; A first calculation unit is used to add the measured river runoff in the multiple time periods, the total water diversion runoff in the multiple time periods, the total water lift runoff in the multiple time periods and the water storage variables of the reservoir in the multiple time periods to obtain the total river runoff data in the multiple time periods; The sum of the variance of the total amount of river runoff data before the variation time and the variance of the total amount of river runoff data after the variation time is the smallest time period among the multiple time periods; The mutation time is determined by the following formula: ； is the variation time, For in time The average of the total river runoff data mentioned above, For in time The average value of the total river runoff data is then is the total runoff data of the river in time period t within time period i, and GD is used to represent the total runoff data of the river in time period t. the minimum value of the sum of the variance of the river runoff volume data before and the variance of the river runoff volume data after a certain time; The time-varying variables include position variables, scale variables and shape variables, the first time-varying parameters include first position parameters, first scale parameters and first shape parameters, and the second time-varying parameters include second position parameters, second scale parameters and second shape parameters; The ecological environment water demand of the river is determined by the following formula: ； It is used to represent the ecological environment water demand of the river corresponding to the guaranteed frequency P in time period t before the variation time, represents the inverse function of the runoff distribution function, is the first position parameter, is the first scale parameter, is the first shape parameter, P represents the set guaranteed frequency, and P is a constant; The guaranteed rate of the ecological environment water demand of the river is determined by the following formula: ； Used to indicate the guaranteed rate of water demand for the ecological environment of the river; is the runoff distribution function; The water demand for the ecological environment of the river; is the second position parameter; is the second scale parameter; is the second shape parameter.

7. An electronic device, characterized in that: The method comprises a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program, when executed by the processor, implements the steps in the method for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river as described in any one of claims 1 to 5.

8. A readable storage medium for storing a program, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for predicting the ecological environment water demand of a river as described in any one of claims 1 to 5 are implemented.

Images