A carbon emission quota estimation method for a power spot market

Abstract

The application discloses a carbon emission quota estimation method for a power spot market, and fully considers the influence of carbon emission and the greenhouse effect performance degree of the current surrounding environment of a thermal power enterprise on carbon emission quota estimation when the thermal power enterprise is subjected to carbon emission quota estimation, so that the carbon emission of the thermal power enterprise in a target year and the current atmospheric environment greenhouse effect performance index are quantitatively analyzed, and the carbon emission quota of the thermal power enterprise in the target year is comprehensively estimated according to the two indexes, so that the two-dimensional estimation of the carbon emission quota of the thermal power enterprise is realized, the single estimation dimension of the carbon emission quota of the thermal power enterprise in the prior art is effectively overcome, and then the carbon emission quota estimation result can be matched with the actual situation, so that the carbon emission of the thermal power enterprise can be comprehensively and objectively reflected, and the use value of the estimation result can be improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of carbon emission quota management technology, specifically a method for estimating carbon emission quotas for the electricity spot market. Background Technology

[0002] The electricity spot market refers to a trading mechanism in which power generation companies and other market participants provide electricity services through market-based transactions. It optimizes the balance and coordination between the supply and demand sides of electricity. In recent years, the number of electricity suppliers and the forms of power generation in the electricity spot market have been increasing. With the increasing demand and electricity consumption in the energy market, power generation is growing daily. However, with the continuous intensification of global warming, reducing carbon emissions has become an important measure and means of environmental protection. To effectively achieve carbon emission reduction targets, the country implements total carbon emission control and has established a carbon emission quota management system. Since the power industry is a major carbon emitter, its low-carbon transformation is key to achieving my country's carbon emission reduction targets. This situation makes it an important participant in carbon emission quota management. Among the many power companies in the power industry, thermal power plants use fuels such as coal and natural gas during operation, which directly release large amounts of carbon emissions during combustion. This makes thermal power plants a major participant in carbon emission quota management.

[0003] In the process of developing this application, the applicant discovered the following drawbacks of existing technologies for managing carbon emission quotas for thermal power plants: 1. Existing technologies for estimating carbon emission quotas for thermal power plants rely solely on historical carbon emissions. This approach is too simplistic and fails to consider the impact of the current greenhouse effect on the surrounding environment. The greenhouse effect of the surrounding atmosphere directly reflects the actual impact of the accumulated carbon emissions on the surrounding environment. If this impact is significant, the future greenhouse effect will be even more severe. Therefore, the current carbon emission quota estimation method results in a poor match between the estimated carbon emission quotas and the actual situation, making it difficult to comprehensively and objectively reflect the carbon emissions that thermal power plants should be allocated, thus affecting the usability of the estimation results. 2. Existing technologies for estimating carbon emission quotas for thermal power plants use carbon dioxide as the primary calculation subject, neglecting carbon emissions from other greenhouse gases. Since the raw materials for thermal power generation are not limited to coal, but also include heavy oil, natural gas, etc., different raw materials release different types of greenhouse gases during combustion, all of which contribute to the greenhouse effect. Therefore, using only carbon dioxide as the primary calculation subject results in a narrow coverage of carbon emission quota estimation models, which can easily lead to omissions in the estimation and thus affect the accuracy of the estimation results. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The technical objective of this invention is to address the aforementioned problems by providing a carbon emission quota estimation method for the electricity spot market, which can effectively overcome the shortcomings of existing carbon emission quota management for thermal power plants.

[0005] The objective of this invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions: A method for estimating carbon emission allowances for the electricity spot market includes the following steps: Step 1: Designate the region where carbon emission allowances are to be estimated as the target region, and designate the current year for which carbon emission allowances are to be estimated as the target year. Then, count the number of thermal power plants in the target region and number each thermal power plant sequentially as 1, 2, ..., i, ..., n according to the set order. Step 2: Locate the geographical location of each thermal power plant and obtain the type of fuel used for power generation for each thermal power plant; Step 3: Identify the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels for each thermal power plant. Step 4: Set the historical monitoring period to obtain the amount of fuel used for power generation by each thermal power plant in each historical monitoring period; Step 5: Estimate the carbon emissions of each thermal power plant in the target year based on the amount of fuel used and the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of each type of fuel in each historical monitoring year. Step Six: Delineate the surrounding area centered on the geographical location of each thermal power plant, and then monitor the greenhouse gas characterization indicators of the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant to analyze the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant. Step 7: Estimate the carbon emission quotas for each thermal power plant in the target year based on the carbon emissions of each plant in the target year and the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index.

[0006] Based on the improved technical solution described above, the specific identification process for identifying the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels for each thermal power plant in step three is as follows: (1) Match the types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant with the types of gases produced by the combustion of various types of power generation fuels, and select the types of gases produced by the combustion of the types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant. (2) Compare the types of gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels of each thermal power plant with the types of greenhouse gases stored in the greenhouse gas database, and extract the types of gases that match the comparison as the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels of each thermal power plant.

[0007] Based on the improved technical solution described above, the specific implementation method for step five is as follows: The average of the fuel consumption of each thermal power plant in each historical monitoring year is processed, and the result is used as the average historical fuel consumption of each thermal power plant in the target year. The types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant are matched with the set conversion ratios of various power generation fuels to standard coal per unit weight, and the conversion ratios of the types of power generation fuels to standard coal per unit weight for each thermal power plant are selected from these. The average historical annual fuel consumption and fuel type of each thermal power plant in the target year are converted to the unit weight of standard coal using the standard coal consumption calculation formula. Calculate the standard coal consumption of each thermal power plant in the target year. ,in Let represent the average historical annual fuel consumption for power generation of the i-th thermal power plant in the target year. This represents the conversion ratio of the type of fuel used for power generation to the unit weight of standard coal for the i-th thermal power plant. , where i represents the number of the thermal power generation enterprise; Statistics were compiled on the types and quantities of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of different types of fuels used in each thermal power plant, as well as the percentage of each greenhouse gas produced. The proportion of various greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding type of fuel for each thermal power plant is matched with the proportion of carbon emissions produced by each greenhouse gas in the greenhouse gas pool relative to the benchmark greenhouse gas per unit of standard coal consumption. From this, the proportion of carbon emissions produced by each greenhouse gas produced by the combustion of the corresponding type of fuel for each thermal power plant relative to the benchmark greenhouse gas per unit of standard coal consumption is determined and recorded as the proportion of carbon emissions of each thermal power plant relative to the benchmark greenhouse gas. The percentage of various greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of different types of fuels from each thermal power plant, the carbon emission ratio of each greenhouse gas from each thermal power plant relative to the baseline greenhouse gas, and the carbon emission of the baseline greenhouse gas corresponding to a unit of standard coal consumption are imported into the comprehensive carbon emission calculation formula. The comprehensive carbon emissions of each thermal power plant in the target year were calculated. ,in This represents the percentage of greenhouse gas generated from the combustion of the fuel used in the i-th thermal power plant, where j represents the greenhouse gas type number, j=1,2,...,m. This represents the percentage of carbon emissions of the j-th greenhouse gas from the i-th thermal power plant relative to the baseline greenhouse gas. R represents the carbon emissions of the baseline greenhouse gas corresponding to the set unit standard coal consumption, and R represents the preset correction factor.

[0008] Based on the above-mentioned improved technical solution, the standard coal refers to coal with a calorific value of 7000 kcal / kg.

[0009] Based on the above-mentioned improved technical solution, the reference greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide.

[0010] Based on the above-mentioned improved technical solution, the method of delineating the surrounding area centered on the geographical location of each thermal power plant is to draw a circle with the geographical location of each thermal power plant as the center and a set distance as the radius, and the area inside the circle is the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant.

[0011] Based on the improved technical solution described above, the greenhouse gas characterization indicators include the names of greenhouse gas categories and the content of each category of greenhouse gas.

[0012] Based on the improved technical solution described above, the analysis of the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant shall be carried out in the following steps: Greenhouse gas category names are extracted from greenhouse gas characterization indicators. Then, the greenhouse gas category names in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant are compared with the normal atmospheric content of each category of greenhouse gas in the greenhouse gas database. The normal atmospheric content of each category of greenhouse gas in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant is then extracted. The content of each type of greenhouse gas is extracted from greenhouse gas characterization indicators. Then, the content of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area of ​​each thermal power plant is compared with the normal content of that type of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The content increase index of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area of ​​each thermal power plant is calculated using the following formula: ,in Let represent the increase index of the content of the k-th category of greenhouse gases in the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power plant, where k represents the greenhouse gas category number, k=1,2,...,z. This represents the content of the k-th type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power plant. Let represent the normal abundance of the k-th category greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and e represent the natural constant. The greenhouse gas category names in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant are matched with the global warming potential values ​​corresponding to the unit content increase index of each category of greenhouse gas in the set area. From this, the global warming potential values ​​corresponding to the unit content increase index of each category of greenhouse gas in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant are obtained. The index of greenhouse gas concentration increase for each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant, and the global warming potential corresponding to the unit concentration increase index of each type of greenhouse gas, are imported into the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index analysis formula. The current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant was obtained. , It represents the global warming potential value corresponding to the unit increase index of greenhouse gas content of category k in the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power generation enterprise.

[0013] Based on the improved technical solution described above, the carbon emission quota estimation formula for each thermal power plant in the target year is as follows: , Let represent the carbon emission allowance of the i-th thermal power plant in the target year.

[0014] Combining all the above technical solutions, the advantages and positive effects of this invention are as follows: (1) When estimating carbon emission quotas for thermal power plants, this invention fully considers the impact of carbon emissions and the greenhouse effect of the current surrounding environment on the carbon emission quota estimation. Based on this, it quantifies and analyzes the carbon emissions of thermal power plants in the target year and the current greenhouse effect index of the atmospheric environment, and thus comprehensively estimates the carbon emission quotas of thermal power plants in the target year. This achieves a two-dimensional estimation of the corresponding carbon emission quotas of thermal power plants, effectively overcoming the shortcomings of the existing technology where the carbon emission quota estimation of thermal power plants is too singular. This enables the carbon emission quota estimation results to match the actual situation, thereby comprehensively and objectively reflecting the amount of carbon emissions that should be allocated to thermal power plants, which is conducive to improving the use value of the estimation results.

[0015] (2) When estimating carbon emission quotas for thermal power plants, this invention takes into account carbon emissions from different greenhouse gases, thereby enriching the coverage of the main body for carbon emission calculation, thus greatly avoiding omissions in carbon emission calculation, and improving the accuracy of carbon emission calculation results to a certain extent. Attached Figure Description

[0016] The present invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the embodiments in the drawings do not constitute any limitation on the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on the following drawings without creative effort.

[0017] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the implementation steps of the method of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0018] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0019] Reference Figure 1 As shown, a method for estimating carbon emission allowances for the electricity spot market includes the following steps: Step 1: Designate the region where carbon emission allowances are to be estimated as the target region, and designate the current year for which carbon emission allowances are to be estimated as the target year. Then, count the number of thermal power plants in the target region and number each thermal power plant sequentially as 1, 2, ..., i, ..., n according to the set order. Step 2: Locate the geographical location of each thermal power plant and obtain the type of fuel used for power generation for each thermal power plant; It should be noted that the types of fuels mentioned above for power generation include, but are not limited to, coal, heavy oil, natural gas, etc. Step 3: Identify the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of each thermal power plant's corresponding fuel type; In one specific embodiment, the specific identification process for identifying the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of different types of fuels for each thermal power plant is as follows: (1) Match the types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant with the types of gases produced by the combustion of various types of power generation fuels, and select the types of gases produced by the combustion of the types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant. (2) Compare the types of gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels of each thermal power plant with the types of greenhouse gases stored in the greenhouse gas database, and extract the types of gases that match the comparison as the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels of each thermal power plant. For example, the greenhouse gases mentioned above include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, etc. Step 4: Set the historical monitoring period to obtain the amount of fuel used for power generation by each thermal power plant in each historical monitoring period; In a preferred embodiment, setting each historical monitoring period can provide a basis for calculating the average fuel consumption for power generation in subsequent target years, greatly reducing the calculation error caused by calculating the average fuel consumption for power generation based on only a single monitoring period, thereby improving the accuracy of the calculation results. Step 5: Estimate the carbon emissions of each thermal power plant in the target year based on the amount of fuel used and the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of each type of fuel in each historical monitoring year. The specific estimation process is as follows: The average of the fuel consumption of each thermal power plant in each historical monitoring year is processed, and the result is used as the average historical fuel consumption of each thermal power plant in the target year. The types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant are matched with the set conversion ratios of various power generation fuels to standard coal per unit weight, and the conversion ratios of the types of power generation fuels to standard coal per unit weight for each thermal power plant are selected from these. It should be noted that the standard coal mentioned above refers to coal with a calorific value of 7000 kcal / kg, which is a method of expressing standard energy. Because the calorific value of other energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas differs, standard coal is commonly used as a standard conversion unit for comparison and calculation. The commonly used conversion ratios between energy sources and standard coal per unit weight in my country are: raw coal 0.714, crude oil 1.429. Natural gas, calculated at 9310 kcal / m³, is equivalent to 1.33 standard coal. The average historical annual fuel consumption and fuel type of each thermal power plant in the target year are converted to the unit weight of standard coal using the standard coal consumption calculation formula. Calculate the standard coal consumption of each thermal power plant in the target year. ,in Let represent the average historical annual fuel consumption for power generation of the i-th thermal power plant in the target year. This represents the conversion ratio of the type of fuel used for power generation to the unit weight of standard coal for the i-th thermal power plant. , where i represents the number of the thermal power generation enterprise; Statistics were compiled on the types and quantities of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of different types of fuels used in each thermal power plant, as well as the percentage of each greenhouse gas produced. It should be noted that the combustion of a power generation fuel may produce a single greenhouse gas or multiple greenhouse gases. When multiple greenhouse gases are produced, the percentages of each greenhouse gas will also differ. For example, the greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of a certain power generation fuel may include three types: A, B, and C. Greenhouse gas A accounts for 20% of the production, greenhouse gas B accounts for 50%, and greenhouse gas C accounts for 30%. The carbon emissions generated by the combustion of various greenhouse gases from the combustion of the corresponding fuels of each thermal power plant are matched with the carbon emissions generated per unit of standard coal consumption by various greenhouse gases in the greenhouse gas pool relative to the benchmark greenhouse gas. The benchmark greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide. The carbon emissions generated per unit of standard coal consumption by various greenhouse gases from the combustion of the corresponding fuels of each thermal power plant are matched and recorded as the carbon emissions ratio of each thermal power plant relative to the benchmark greenhouse gas. The percentage of various greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of different types of fuels from each thermal power plant, the carbon emission ratio of each greenhouse gas from each thermal power plant relative to the baseline greenhouse gas, and the carbon emission of the baseline greenhouse gas corresponding to a unit of standard coal consumption are imported into the comprehensive carbon emission calculation formula. The comprehensive carbon emissions of each thermal power plant in the target year were calculated, among which... Let represent the total carbon emissions of the i-th thermal power plant in the target year. This represents the percentage of greenhouse gas generated from the combustion of the fuel used in the i-th thermal power plant, where j represents the greenhouse gas type number, j=1,2,...,m. This represents the percentage of carbon emissions of the j-th greenhouse gas from the i-th thermal power plant relative to the baseline greenhouse gas. This represents the baseline greenhouse gas carbon emissions corresponding to a set unit of standard coal consumption, where R represents a preset correction factor. The embodiments of the present invention comprehensively consider carbon emissions from different greenhouse gases when estimating carbon emission quotas for thermal power plants, thereby enriching the coverage of the main body for carbon emission calculation, thus greatly avoiding omissions in carbon emission calculation, and improving the accuracy of carbon emission calculation results to a certain extent. Step Six: Delineate the surrounding area centered on the geographical location of each thermal power plant. Specifically, draw a circle with the geographical location of each thermal power plant as the center and a predetermined distance as the radius. The area within this circle is the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant. Then, monitor greenhouse gas characterization indicators in the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant. These indicators include the names of greenhouse gas categories and the content of each category. Analyze the current atmospheric greenhouse effect index of the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant. See the following steps for details: Greenhouse gas category names are extracted from greenhouse gas characterization indicators. Then, the greenhouse gas category names in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant are compared with the normal atmospheric content of each category of greenhouse gas in the greenhouse gas database. The normal atmospheric content of each category of greenhouse gas in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant is then extracted. The content of each type of greenhouse gas is extracted from greenhouse gas characterization indicators. Then, the content of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area of ​​each thermal power plant is compared with the normal content of that type of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The content increase index of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area of ​​each thermal power plant is calculated using the following formula: ,in Let represent the increase index of the content of the k-th category of greenhouse gases in the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power plant, where k represents the greenhouse gas category number, k=1,2,...,z. This represents the content of the k-th type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power plant. Let represent the normal content of the k-th category of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and e represent the natural constant. The higher the content of a certain category of greenhouse gas is relative to its normal content in the atmosphere, the greater the increase index of the content of that category of greenhouse gas, indicating that the higher the degree of increase in the content of that category of greenhouse gas, the greater its greenhouse effect. The greenhouse gas category names in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant are matched with the global warming potential values ​​corresponding to the unit content increase index of each category of greenhouse gas in the set area. From this, the global warming potential values ​​corresponding to the unit content increase index of each category of greenhouse gas in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant are obtained. It should be noted that the global warming potential value mentioned above is an index of the greenhouse effect of a substance. Here it refers to the overall effect of a greenhouse gas in the atmosphere over different time periods and its relative role in absorbing outward heat and infrared radiation. It represents the greenhouse effect of a greenhouse gas corresponding to the mass of carbon dioxide with the same effect. Carbon dioxide is used as the reference gas because it has the greatest impact on global warming. For example, the global warming potential value of carbon dioxide is 1, and the global warming potential value of methane is 72. The index of greenhouse gas concentration increase for each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant, and the global warming potential corresponding to the unit concentration increase index of each type of greenhouse gas, are imported into the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index analysis formula. The current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant was obtained, among which... This represents the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power plant. This represents the global warming potential value corresponding to the unit increase index of greenhouse gas content of category k in the surrounding area of ​​the i-th thermal power plant. In a specific embodiment, the greater the increase index of the content of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area corresponding to a thermal power plant, the greater the global warming potential value corresponding to the unit increase index of the content of each type of greenhouse gas, and the greater the current atmospheric environment greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding area corresponding to the thermal power plant, the greater the actual greenhouse effect of the surrounding area corresponding to the thermal power plant. The deeper meaning it represents is that the carbon emissions of the thermal power plant should not be further aggravated. Step 7: Estimate the carbon emission allowance for each thermal power plant in the target year based on its carbon emissions and the current atmospheric greenhouse effect index. The estimation formula is as follows: , Let represent the carbon emission allowance of the i-th thermal power plant in the target year.

[0020] In the above carbon emission quota estimation formula, the carbon emissions of thermal power plants in the target year are used as the basic estimation reference, and the current atmospheric greenhouse effect index of thermal power plants in the target year is used as the influencing estimation parameter. The current atmospheric greenhouse effect index of thermal power plants in the target year has a negative impact on the estimation of carbon emission quotas, that is, the larger the current atmospheric greenhouse effect index of thermal power plants in the target year, the smaller the carbon emission quota of thermal power plants in the target year.

[0021] In estimating carbon emission quotas for thermal power plants, this invention fully considers the impact of carbon emissions and the current greenhouse effect of the surrounding environment on the carbon emission quota estimation. It quantitatively analyzes the carbon emissions of thermal power plants in the target year and the current atmospheric greenhouse effect index, thereby comprehensively estimating the carbon emission quotas of thermal power plants in the target year. This achieves a two-dimensional estimation of the corresponding carbon emission quotas for thermal power plants, effectively overcoming the shortcomings of existing technologies where carbon emission quota estimation for thermal power plants is too singular. This allows the carbon emission quota estimation results to match the actual situation, comprehensively and objectively reflecting the carbon emissions that thermal power plants should be allocated, thus enhancing the usability of the estimation results.

[0022] The above description is merely an example and illustration of the structure of the present invention. Those skilled in the art can make various modifications or additions to the specific embodiments described, or use similar methods to replace them, as long as they do not deviate from the structure of the invention or exceed the scope defined in the claims, all of which should fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for estimating carbon emission allowances for the electricity spot market, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Step 1: Designate the region where carbon emission allowances are to be estimated as the target region, and designate the current year for which carbon emission allowances are to be estimated as the target year. Then, count the number of thermal power plants in the target region and number each thermal power plant sequentially as 1, 2, ..., i, ..., n according to the set order. Step 2: Locate the geographical location of each thermal power plant and obtain the type of fuel used for power generation for each thermal power plant; Step 3: Identify the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels for each thermal power plant. Step 4: Set the historical monitoring period to obtain the amount of fuel used for power generation by each thermal power plant in each historical monitoring period; Step 5: Estimate the carbon emissions of each thermal power plant in the target year based on the amount of fuel used and the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of each type of fuel in each historical monitoring year. Step Six: Delineate the surrounding area centered on the geographical location of each thermal power plant, and then monitor greenhouse gas characterization indicators in the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant. Analyze the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant; the formula for the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index is as follows: ,in, This represents the global warming potential value corresponding to the unit increase index of greenhouse gas content of category k in the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power plant. Let represent the increase index of the content of the k-th category of greenhouse gases in the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power plant, where k represents the greenhouse gas category number, k=1,2,...,z. This represents the content of the k-th type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area corresponding to the i-th thermal power plant. Let represent the normal abundance of the k-th category greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and e represent the natural constant. Step 7: Estimate the carbon emission quotas for each thermal power plant in the target year based on the carbon emissions of each plant in the target year and the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index.

2. The carbon emission quota estimation method for the electricity spot market according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific identification process for the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels for each thermal power plant in step three is as follows: (1) Match the types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant with the types of gases produced by the combustion of various types of power generation fuels, and select the types of gases produced by the combustion of the types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant. (2) Compare the types of gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels of each thermal power plant with the types of greenhouse gases stored in the greenhouse gas database, and extract the types of gases that match the comparison as the types of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding fuels of each thermal power plant.

3. The carbon emission quota estimation method for the electricity spot market according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific implementation method for step five is as follows: The average of the fuel consumption of each thermal power plant in each historical monitoring year is processed, and the result is used as the average historical fuel consumption of each thermal power plant in the target year. The types of power generation fuels corresponding to each thermal power plant are matched with the set conversion ratios of various power generation fuels to standard coal per unit weight, and the conversion ratios of the types of power generation fuels to standard coal per unit weight for each thermal power plant are selected from these. The average historical annual fuel consumption and fuel type of each thermal power plant in the target year are converted to the unit weight of standard coal using the standard coal consumption calculation formula. Calculate the standard coal consumption of each thermal power plant in the target year. ,in Let represent the average historical annual fuel consumption for power generation of the i-th thermal power plant in the target year. This represents the conversion ratio of the type of fuel used for power generation to the unit weight of standard coal for the i-th thermal power plant. , where i represents the number of the thermal power generation enterprise; Statistics were compiled on the types and quantities of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of different types of fuels used in each thermal power plant, as well as the percentage of each greenhouse gas produced. The proportion of various greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of the corresponding type of fuel for each thermal power plant is matched with the proportion of carbon emissions produced by each greenhouse gas in the greenhouse gas pool relative to the benchmark greenhouse gas per unit of standard coal consumption. From this, the proportion of carbon emissions produced by each greenhouse gas produced by the combustion of the corresponding type of fuel for each thermal power plant relative to the benchmark greenhouse gas per unit of standard coal consumption is determined and recorded as the proportion of carbon emissions of each thermal power plant relative to the benchmark greenhouse gas. The percentage of various greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of different types of fuels from each thermal power plant, the carbon emission ratio of each greenhouse gas from each thermal power plant relative to the baseline greenhouse gas, and the carbon emission of the baseline greenhouse gas corresponding to a unit of standard coal consumption are imported into the comprehensive carbon emission calculation formula. The comprehensive carbon emissions of each thermal power plant in the target year were calculated. ,in This represents the percentage of greenhouse gas generated from the combustion of the fuel used in the i-th thermal power plant, where j represents the greenhouse gas type number, j=1,2,...,m. This represents the percentage of carbon emissions of the j-th greenhouse gas from the i-th thermal power plant relative to the baseline greenhouse gas. R represents the carbon emissions of the baseline greenhouse gas corresponding to the set unit standard coal consumption, and R represents the preset correction factor.

4. The carbon emission quota estimation method for the electricity spot market according to claim 3, characterized in that: The standard coal refers to coal with a calorific value of 7000 kcal / kg.

5. The carbon emission quota estimation method for the electricity spot market according to claim 4, characterized in that: The reference greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide.

6. The carbon emission quota estimation method for the electricity spot market according to claim 5, characterized in that: The method for defining the surrounding area based on the geographical location of each thermal power plant is to draw a circle with the geographical location of each thermal power plant as the center and a set distance as the radius. The area inside the circle is the surrounding area corresponding to each thermal power plant.

7. The carbon emission quota estimation method for the electricity spot market according to claim 6, characterized in that: The greenhouse gas characterization indicators include the names of greenhouse gas categories and the content of each category of greenhouse gas.

8. The carbon emission quota estimation method for the electricity spot market according to claim 7, characterized in that: The analysis of the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding areas corresponding to each thermal power plant shall be carried out in accordance with the following steps: Greenhouse gas category names are extracted from greenhouse gas characterization indicators. Then, the greenhouse gas category names in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant are compared with the normal atmospheric content of each category of greenhouse gas in the greenhouse gas database. The normal atmospheric content of each category of greenhouse gas in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant is then extracted. The content of each type of greenhouse gas is extracted from the greenhouse gas characterization indicators. Then, the content of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area of ​​each thermal power plant is compared with the normal content of the same type of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The content increase index of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area of ​​each thermal power plant is calculated. The greenhouse gas category name in the surrounding area of ​​each thermal power plant is matched with the global warming potential value corresponding to the unit content increase index of each type of greenhouse gas. From this, the global warming potential value corresponding to the unit content increase index of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding area of ​​each thermal power plant is obtained. By importing the content increase index of each type of greenhouse gas and the global warming potential corresponding to the unit content increase index of each type of greenhouse gas in the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant into the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index analysis formula, the current atmospheric greenhouse effect performance index of the surrounding areas of each thermal power plant is obtained. .

9. A method for estimating carbon emission allowances for the electricity spot market according to claim 8, characterized in that: The formula for estimating the carbon emission quotas of each thermal power plant in the target year is as follows: , Let represent the carbon emission allowance of the i-th thermal power plant in the target year.

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