A method and system for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and system for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor, comprising: determining the power generation prediction type of the electrochemical energy storage power station according to instructions issued by a power grid dispatching center; when the power generation prediction type is a day-ahead power generation prediction, determining the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the time factor corresponding to the actual power according to power station information; when the power generation prediction type is a mid-day power generation prediction, determining the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power according to power station information and real-time power station status information; outputting the determined actual power and the time factor corresponding to the actual power to the power grid dispatching center, which then uses the power grid dispatching center to put the energy storage power station into operation. The present invention generates a power generation prediction curve based on the real-time status of the electrochemical energy storage power station, providing dispatchers with a power generation curve that intuitively represents its capabilities, effectively reducing the professional requirements of dispatchers.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of electrochemical energy storage power stations, and more specifically, relates to a method and system for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station containing a time factor. Background Art

[0002] The proportion of renewable energy power generation capacity continues to increase, while the power system's moment of inertia decreases, making power balancing more challenging. Electrochemical energy storage, with its rapid, precise response and flexible installation, can effectively address intraday fluctuations in renewable energy. Many provinces have introduced policies encouraging renewable energy sites to deploy energy storage to improve grid-connected performance, with deployments ranging from 5% to 40% of the installed renewable energy capacity for one to two hours, or even longer. However, because the energy carriers in electrochemical energy storage stations have electrochemical properties distinct from those of electrical components and possess both source and load attributes, they differ from conventional flexible power supply regulation. Currently, the parameters uploaded by electrochemical energy storage stations for scheduling are mostly state variables, such as voltage, current, SOH, SOC, and temperature. These parameters do not provide a real-time, intuitive display of the station's active and reactive dispatchability, unlike the scheduling operations performed by power system dispatchers based on generation and load forecast curves. In particular, electrochemical energy storage stations at renewable energy sites also provide active support functions such as smoothing output and ensuring system stability. They not only provide peak load shaving and standby, but their dispatchability fluctuates in real time. The lack of a generation curve representing their capacity prevents them from fully participating in power system scheduling, hindering their use as a fast and flexible resource for regulation.

[0003] Currently, energy storage power stations are dispatched for peak shaving, frequency regulation, and emergency support. Peak shaving requires high planning, with energy storage stations in standby mode. Dispatchers determine the power value and timing of dispatch instructions based on the available capacity and health status of the energy storage station. However, this requires knowledge of the relationship between available capacity and power. For example, the available capacity of some electrochemical energy storage stations ranges from 10% to 90% of the SOC, with power restrictions below 30%, further increasing dispatching technical complexity. Dispatching instructions for energy storage stations to assist with thermal power generation frequency regulation are issued directly to the thermal power unit control system via the power plant's remote control unit (RTU). Dispatching agencies only have monitoring functions over energy storage stations and do not directly issue instructions. Emergency support functions involve direct high and low level instructions to the power storage station converter (PCS), ensuring that the energy storage station generates at full capacity within its capabilities. The power value of the dispatch instructions is not specified. In summary, as a flexible power source, energy storage stations lack state-based power generation forecast curves. Dispatchers must make real-time decisions based on the station's status, increasing dispatching complexity. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In response to the shortcomings of the existing technology, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor, which generates a power generation prediction curve based on the real-time status of the electrochemical energy storage power station, provides dispatchers with an intuitive power generation curve that represents their capabilities, and can effectively reduce the professional requirements of dispatchers.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, in a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor, comprising the following steps:

[0006] (1) obtaining and determining a power generation forecast type of the electrochemical energy storage power station according to an instruction issued by a power grid dispatching center, wherein the power generation forecast type includes a day-ahead power generation forecast and a mid-day power generation forecast;

[0007] (2) When the power generation forecast type is a day-ahead power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are obtained and determined based on the power station rated power, the power station state of charge, and the power station's planned output power at each moment of the next day; when the power generation forecast type is a mid-day power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are obtained and determined based on the power station rated power, the power station state of charge, the power station's planned output power at the next moment and the power station's output power at the previous moment;

[0008] (3) Outputting the determined actual power and the time factor corresponding to the actual power to a power grid dispatching center, and using the power grid dispatching center to put the energy storage power station into use.

[0009] In one embodiment, in step (2), the calculation formula for the actual power of the energy storage power station at each time of the next day is:

[0010]

[0011]

[0012] Where, P rc,t 、P rd,t Corresponding to the actual absorption and output power of the energy storage station at each time of the day, t∈0:00-24:00; P N Indicates the rated power of the power station; P pro,t Indicates the planned output power of the power station at each time of the day; SOC P Indicates the charging status of the power station.

[0013] In one embodiment, in step (2), the calculation formula for the time factor corresponding to the actual power of the energy storage power station at each time of the next day is:

[0014]

[0015]

[0016]

[0017]

[0018] Where, T c 、T d The corresponding energy storage station represents the actual absorbed power P at each time of the day. rc,t and output power P rd,t The time factor of x T represents the day-ahead time factor scaling coefficient, T c0 (SOC P ), T d0 (SOC P ) corresponds to the time factor representing the actual rated power absorbed and output by the power station; a, b, and c represent the translation scaling coefficients, a affects the amplitude of the power station energy value, b affects the position of the extreme value of the power station energy value, and c affects the degree of difference in the power station energy distribution; erf(x) represents the energy change function of the power station charging time factor, erfc(x) is the complementary function of erf(x), which represents the energy variation function of the power station discharge time factor, erfc(x)=1-erf(x).

[0019] In one embodiment, when the energy storage power station performs peak shaving and valley filling every day, the actual power of the energy storage power station on the following day is determined by time periods. Each time period is determined based on the endpoints of the peak shaving and valley filling charging and discharging time period. The endpoints of the charging and discharging time period are arranged in chronological order, and the time period formed by the adjacent two endpoints is used as a time period for determining the actual power of the energy storage power station on the following day.

[0020] In one embodiment, in step (2), the calculation formula for the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment is:

[0021]

[0022]

[0023] Where, P rnc,t 、P rnd,t P represents the actual absorbed and output power of the energy storage station at the next moment; N Indicates the rated power of the power station; P pron,t Indicates the planned output power of the power station at the next moment; P t-Δt Indicates the output power of the power station at the previous moment, Δt indicates the prediction step of the mid-day power generation forecast; SOC P Indicates the charging status of the power station.

[0024] In one embodiment, in step (2), the calculation formula for the time factor corresponding to the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment is:

[0025]

[0026]

[0027]

[0028]

[0029] Where, T nc 、T nd The corresponding energy storage station actually absorbs power P at the next moment. rnc,t and output power P rnd,t The time factor of x nT Indicates the scaling factor of the time of day, T c0 (SOC P ), T d0 (SOC P ) corresponds to the time factor representing the actual rated power absorbed and output by the power station; a, b, and c represent the translation scaling coefficients, a affects the amplitude of the power station energy value, b affects the position of the extreme value of the power station energy value, and c affects the degree of difference in the power station energy distribution; erf(x) represents the energy change function of the power station charging time factor, erfc(x) is the complementary function of erf(x), which represents the energy variation function of the power station discharge time factor, erfc(x)=1-erf(x).

[0030] In one embodiment, the prediction step size Δt of the mid-day power generation prediction is set according to the function and capacity of the energy storage power station.

[0031] In one embodiment, before step (2), the following steps are also included:

[0032] The electrical health state S0H of the energy storage power station is obtained. When the electrical health state SOH is higher than or equal to a set value, step (2) is executed. When the electrical health state SOH is lower than the set value and the power generation forecast type is a day-ahead power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are determined to be a constant value of zero. When the electrical health state SOH is lower than the set value and the power generation forecast type is a mid-day power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are determined to be zero.

[0033] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a power generation prediction system for an electrochemical energy storage power station including a time factor, comprising:

[0034] a determination module, configured to obtain and determine, based on instructions issued by a power grid dispatching center, a power generation forecast type for an electrochemical energy storage power station, the power generation forecast type including a day-ahead power generation forecast and a mid-day power generation forecast;

[0035] The power generation prediction module is used to obtain and determine the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the time factor corresponding to the actual power based on the power station rated power, the power station state of charge, and the power station's planned output power at each moment of the next day when the power generation prediction type is a day-ahead power generation prediction; and to obtain and determine the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power based on the power station rated power, the power station state of charge, the power station's planned output power at the next moment, and the power station's output power at the previous moment when the power generation prediction type is a mid-day power generation prediction;

[0036] The output module is used to output the determined actual power and the time factor corresponding to the actual power to the power grid dispatching center, and use the power grid dispatching center to put the energy storage power station into use.

[0037] The present invention provides a method and system for predicting power generation at an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor. By combining the time factor with an output characterization quantity, the method accurately describes the continuous output of the energy storage power station at a certain power value for a time period of Δt. This allows for a clear and intuitive generation capacity curve of the electrochemical energy storage power station, reducing the technical difficulty of scheduling the electrochemical energy storage power station. Dispatchers no longer need to master the internal and external characteristics of the energy storage power station itself, and can achieve real-time scheduling of the energy storage power station according to the power generation prediction curve and conventional power supply scheduling methods. In addition, the dispatch center can use the power generation prediction curve provided by this embodiment to clearly determine the power generation capacity of the energy storage power station at multiple time scales, such as day-ahead and daytime, and incorporate the energy storage power station into a rapidly adjustable resource, providing support for the stable operation of the power grid while improving the utilization rate of the energy storage power station. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0038] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station including a time factor provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0039] Figure 2a It is a schematic diagram of the curve of the actual power of the energy storage power station provided by the present invention;

[0040] Figure 2b Schematic diagram of the curve of the day-ahead time factor of the energy storage power station provided by the present invention;

[0041] Figure 3 1 is a schematic diagram of a curve of the initial time factor provided by the present invention;

[0042] Figure 4 The present invention provides a schematic diagram of a mid-day power generation prediction curve;

[0043] Figure 5a This is a schematic diagram of a power generation prediction curve of an energy storage power station during the 4:00-6:00 time period provided by a specific embodiment of the present invention;

[0044] Figure 5b This is a schematic diagram of a power generation prediction curve of an energy storage power station in the time period of 6:00-20:00 provided by a specific embodiment of the present invention;

[0045] Figure 5c This is a schematic diagram of a power generation prediction curve of an energy storage power station during the period of 20:00-22:00 provided by a specific embodiment of the present invention;

[0046] Figure 5d This is a schematic diagram of a power generation prediction curve of an energy storage power station during the time periods of 22:00-24:00 and 0:00-4:00 provided by a specific embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0047] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0048] In order to reduce the technical difficulty of scheduling electrochemical energy storage power stations, the present invention provides a method for predicting power generation of electrochemical energy storage power stations with a time factor, such as Figure 1 As shown, the method includes steps S10 to S30, which are described in detail as follows:

[0049] S10, obtaining and determining the power generation forecast type of the electrochemical energy storage power station according to the instruction issued by the power grid dispatching center, the power generation forecast type including day-ahead power generation forecast and mid-day power generation forecast.

[0050] In step S10, the day-ahead power generation forecast is based on a 24-hour time period. The current time period predicts the power generation curve for the next time period, such as predicting the power generation curve of station 1 against station 2. The daytime power generation forecast is real-time, with a prediction step size of 30 seconds to 5 minutes depending on the power plant function settings. For example, predicting the power generation curve of station 1 from 10:00 to 10:05 at 10:00 on station 1 is 10:00-10:05.

[0051] S20, determining the power generation curve at the required prediction time according to the power generation prediction type. The power generation curve of this embodiment accurately describes the continuous output of the energy storage power station at a certain power value for a time Δt by combining the time factor with the output characterization quantity (actual power value), wherein the time factor is defined as the length of time the energy storage power station can continuously charge / discharge at this output power level.

[0052] When the power generation forecast type is day-ahead, the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the corresponding time factor for each actual power can be determined based on the power station information, namely the power station rated power, power station state of charge, and the power station's planned output power at each moment of the next day. When the power generation forecast type is mid-day, the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the corresponding time factor for each actual power can be determined based on the power station information and real-time collected information, namely the power station rated power, power station state of charge, the power station's planned output power at the next moment, and the power station's output power at the previous moment.

[0053] In this embodiment, the power station's rated power is calculated based on the energy storage station's installed capacity. For example, if the installed capacity of a given energy storage station is CMW / C·N MWh, the station's rated power is CMW. With a configuration of N hours, the station can theoretically provide C·N MWh of electricity to the grid at rated power for N hours. The power station's state of charge can be obtained from monitoring data from the station's battery management system (BMS). The station's planned output power at any time during the next day and the next moment can be obtained from the energy storage station's daily operation plan. The station's output power at the previous moment can be obtained from monitoring data from the station's monitoring system (EMS).

[0054] Specifically, if Figure 2a As shown in the figure, when the power generation forecast type is day-ahead power generation forecast, the calculation formula for determining the actual power of the energy storage station at any time of the day is:

[0055]

[0056] Where, P rc,t 、P rd,t P represents the actual absorbed power (chargeable power) and actual output power (dischargeable power) of the energy storage station at time t one day after the energy storage station, t∈0:00-24:00; N Indicates the rated power of the power station; P pro,t Indicates the planned output power of the power station at time t the next day; SOC P Indicates the charging status of the power station.

[0057] like Figure 2b As shown, the actual absorption and output power P rc,t and P rd,t The corresponding time factors T c (SOC P ), T d (SOC P ) is calculated as:

[0058]

[0059]

[0060] Where x T It represents the scaling factor of the day-ahead time factor, which is affected by the actual absorbed power P rc,t Size influences, T c0 (SOC P ), T d0 (SOC P ) corresponds to the time factor representing the actual rated power absorbed and output by the power station.

[0061] When calculating the time factor, the current state of charge (SOC) of the power station needs to be considered. P , when SOC P When the SOC is 100%, the charging time factor is always 0 until the power station discharges. P The discharge time factor is 0% until the power station is charged. In addition, the discharge time factor is 0% according to the current power station SOC. P and the type of time factor you want to calculate (charge time factor or discharge time factor) according to T c and T d The calculation formula is used to obtain the corresponding time factor value.

[0062] The time factor T c and T d The calculation principle is as follows:

[0063] It should be noted that the size of the time factor is affected by the energy distribution of the single battery state of charge SOC. p The energy distribution is similar to that of a single battery, so the SOC of the power station can be calculated by analogy. p The energy distribution is as follows:

[0064]

[0065] Furthermore, the time factors in the charge and discharge processes correspond to energy accumulation and energy reduction, respectively. Therefore, the time factor in the discharge process is the full state minus the energy used. The two are complementary as follows:

[0066]

[0067] erfc(SOC P )=1-erf(SOC P )

[0068] Where, erf(SOC p ) represents the energy change function of the charging time factor of the power station; erfc(SOC p ) represents erf(SOC p), which is used to describe the energy variation function of the power station discharge time factor.

[0069] Considering the actual situation, the time factor indicates the duration of continuous charge / discharge, and its value should be greater than or equal to 0, so erf(SOC p ) and erfc(SOC p ) is transformed: first, erf is translated upward by one unit so that its value is greater than or equal to 0, and then the translated function is scaled to an initial time factor f with a height of 1 Tco (SOC p ), erfc is directly scaled to the initial time factor f with a height of 1 Tdo (SOC p ),like Figure 3 As shown, the initial time factor f corresponding to the charging and discharging process can be obtained. Tco (SOC p ),f Tdo (SOC p ) is calculated as:

[0070]

[0071]

[0072] The time factor T of the power station's actual absorption and output of rated power is c0 (SOC P ) and T d0 (SOC P ) is calculated by converting the above initial time factor f Tco (SOC p ) and f Tdo (SOC p ) is obtained by translation and scaling according to the battery type and performance, and the calculation formula is:

[0073]

[0074]

[0075] Among them, a, b, and c represent the translation scaling coefficients. The values ​​of the three are related to the battery type of the energy storage power station. Among them, a affects the amplitude of the power station energy value, b affects the position of the extreme value of the power station energy value, and c affects the degree of difference in the energy distribution of the power station.

[0076] like Figure 4 At the middle solid line, when the power generation forecast type is mid-day power generation forecast, the actual absorbed power P of the energy storage station at any time of the day is rnc,t And the actual output power P rnd,t The output power P of the power station at the previous moment t-Δtand the power station's planned output power P at the next moment pron,t The impact is calculated as follows:

[0077]

[0078]

[0079] like Figure 4 At the middle dotted line, the actual absorbed and output power P rnc,t 、P rnd,t The corresponding time factors T nc and T nd , affected by the state of charge of the power station and the output power of the power station at the previous moment, the calculation formula is:

[0080]

[0081]

[0082] Where x nT Indicates the daytime factor scaling factor, which is affected by the actual absorbed power P rnc,t Size influences, According to the current state of charge SOC of the power station p , substitute into formula T nc or T nd The calculation formula is the time factor value within this time period.

[0083] The method for predicting power generation at an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor provided in this embodiment accurately describes the energy storage power station's continuous output at a certain power value for a period of Δt by combining the time factor with an output representation. This method clearly and intuitively generates a power generation capacity curve for the electrochemical energy storage power station, reducing the technical difficulty of scheduling the electrochemical energy storage power station. Dispatchers no longer need to understand the internal and external characteristics of the energy storage power station itself, and can instead implement real-time scheduling of the energy storage power station based on the power generation prediction curve and conventional power supply scheduling methods. Furthermore, the dispatch center can use the power generation prediction curve provided in this embodiment to clearly determine the power generation capacity of the energy storage power station at multiple time scales, such as day-ahead and day-ahead. This allows the energy storage power station to be incorporated into rapidly adjustable resources, supporting the stable operation of the power grid while improving the utilization rate of the energy storage power station.

[0084] In one embodiment, the power station's electrical health status (SOH) indicates whether components within the energy storage station, such as the PCS, transformer, control system, and connecting wires, are operating normally. This health status information can be obtained through a monitoring system. The SOH determines whether the battery module can normally participate in the planned discharge process, which affects the power value of the energy storage station's predicted curve.

[0085] Therefore, before step S20, the power generation prediction method provided above further includes the following steps:

[0086] The electrical health status S0H of the energy storage power station is obtained. When the electrical health status SOH is higher than or equal to a set value, the subsequent step S20 is executed. When the electrical health status SOH is lower than the set value (an abnormal electrical health status SOH) and the power generation forecast type is a day-ahead power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at any time in the next day and the time factor corresponding to each actual power are determined to be a constant value of zero. When the electrical health status SOH is lower than the set value and the power generation forecast type is a mid-day power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are determined to be zero.

[0087] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides an electrochemical energy storage power station power generation prediction system containing a time factor, including a determination module, a power generation prediction module and an output module.

[0088] Among them, the determination module is used to obtain and determine the power generation forecast type of the electrochemical energy storage power station according to the instructions issued by the power grid dispatching center. The power generation forecast type includes day-ahead power generation forecast and mid-day power generation forecast.

[0089] The power generation forecast module is used to obtain and determine the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the time factor corresponding to each actual power based on the power station rated power, power station charge state and the power station's planned output power at each moment of the next day when the power generation forecast type is the day-ahead power generation forecast; when the power generation forecast type is the mid-day power generation forecast, it is used to obtain and determine the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power based on the power station rated power, power station charge state, the power station's planned output power at the next moment and the power station's output power at the previous moment.

[0090] The output module is used to output the determined actual power and the time factor corresponding to the actual power to the power grid dispatching center, and the power grid dispatching center is used to put the energy storage power station into use.

[0091] In this embodiment, the functions of the determination module, the power generation prediction module and the output module can be found in the detailed description of the aforementioned method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0092] The electrochemical energy storage power station power generation prediction system with a time factor provided in this embodiment accurately describes the energy storage power station's continuous output at a certain power value for a period of Δt by combining the time factor with an output representation. This allows for a clear and intuitive generation capacity curve of the electrochemical energy storage power station, reducing the technical difficulty of scheduling the electrochemical energy storage power station. Dispatchers no longer need to understand the internal and external characteristics of the energy storage power station itself, and can instead implement real-time scheduling of the energy storage power station based on the power generation prediction curve and conventional power supply scheduling methods. Furthermore, the dispatch center can use the power generation prediction curve provided in this embodiment to clearly determine the energy storage power station's generation capacity on multiple time scales, such as the day before and during the day. This allows the energy storage power station to be incorporated into rapidly adjustable resources, providing support for stable grid operation while improving the utilization rate of the energy storage power station.

[0093] The following describes in detail the method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor provided by the present invention in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0094] A 10MW / 20MWh lithium battery energy storage power station includes multiple functions such as peak shaving, frequency regulation, and demand response. The power station performs regular peak shaving and valley filling every day, specifically: full charging at a constant rated power from 4:00 to 6:00; full discharge at a constant rated power from 20:00 to 22:00. Considering the peak shaving and valley filling function of this power station, its day-ahead forecast curve is as follows: Figure 4 , divided into four time periods: 4:00-6:00, 6:00-20:00, 20:00-22:00, and 22:00-4:00 the next day.

[0095] According to the above-mentioned electrochemical energy storage power station power generation prediction method, the power station's day-ahead and mid-day power generation prediction curves are generated as follows:

[0096] Day-ahead forecast curve:

[0097] The power station is easy to obtain, 10MW / 10·2MWh, that is, N=2, P N =10000(kW).

[0098] The charge and discharge power can be calculated as follows:

[0099] In the time period T∈4:00-6:00, the SOC is 0 at 4:00, and the discharge power is 0 according to the above formula. The SOC is 100% at 6:00, and the charge power is 0 according to the above formula. Figure 5a The solid line indicates the power value during this period.

[0100] P rc,t (t)=-P N ·ε(Nt)

[0101] P rd,t (t) = P N ·ε(t)

[0102] Where ε(t) represents the step function.

[0103] In the time period of T∈6:00-20:00, the SOC is always 100%, such as Figure 5b At the solid line, then:

[0104] P rc,t (t) = 0

[0105] P rd,t (t) = P N

[0106] In the time period T∈20:00-22:00, the SOC is 100% at 20:00, and the chargeable power is 0 according to the above formula. The SOC is 0 at 22:00, and the dischargeable power is 0 according to the above formula, as shown in the following example: Figure 5c At the solid line, the power value during this period is as follows.

[0107] P rc,t (t)=-P N ·ε(t)

[0108] P rd,t (t) = P N ·ε(Nt)

[0109] In the two time periods of T∈22:00-24:00 and 0:00-4:00, the SOC is always 0, such as Figure 5d At the solid line, the power value during this period is as follows.

[0110] P rc,t (t)=-P N

[0111] P rd,t (t) = 0

[0112] The time factor is calculated as follows:

[0113] According to the basic parameters of the power station, the maximum value of the time factor is N = 2. According to the battery properties of the power station, a = 2, b = 4, and c = 4.

[0114] In the time period T∈4:00-6:00, constant rated power charging is performed from the SOC state of 0, such as Figure 5a The dotted line is in the middle, so its time factor is calculated as follows:

[0115]

[0116]

[0117] In the time period of T∈20:00-22:00, constant power discharge is performed from the SOC state of 100%, such as Figure 5c The dotted line is in the middle, so its time factor is calculated as follows:

[0118]

[0119]

[0120] In the three time periods of T∈6:00-20:00, T∈22:00-24:00 and 0:00-4:00, Figure 5b 、 5d At the middle dashed line, the energy storage power station maintains the same starting state at the moment, so the time factor remains unchanged.

[0121] It will be easily understood by those skilled in the art that the above description is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor, characterized in that: The steps include: (1) Obtaining and determining the power generation forecast type of the electrochemical energy storage power station according to the instructions issued by the power grid dispatching center, wherein the power generation forecast type includes day-ahead power generation forecast and mid-day power generation forecast; (2) When the power generation forecast type is a day-ahead power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are obtained and determined based on the power station rated power, the power station state of charge and the power station's planned output power at each moment of the next day; when the power generation forecast type is a mid-day power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are obtained and determined based on the power station rated power, the power station state of charge, the power station's planned output power at the next moment and the power station's output power at the previous moment; The calculation formula for the time factor corresponding to the actual power of the energy storage station at each time of the next day is: Where, T c 、 T d The corresponding representation of the actual absorbed power of the energy storage station at each time of the day P rc,t and output power P rd,t The time factor; represents the day-ahead time factor scaling coefficient, ; T c0 ( SOC P ), T d0 ( SOC P ) corresponds to the time factor representing the actual rated power absorbed and output by the power station; a, b, and c represent the translation scaling coefficients, where a affects the amplitude of the power station energy value, b affects the position of the extreme value of the power station energy value, and c affects the degree of difference in the power station energy distribution; The energy variation function representing the charging time factor of the power station, , ;erfc( x ) is erf( x ), which represents the energy variation function of the power station discharge time factor. ; The calculation formula for the time factor corresponding to the actual power of the energy storage station at the next moment is: Where, T nc 、 T nd Corresponding to the actual absorbed power of the energy storage station at the next moment P rnc,t and output power P rnd,t The time factor; x nT Indicates the scaling factor of the time of day, ; T c0 ( SOC P ), T d0 ( SOC P ) corresponds to the time factor representing the actual rated power absorbed and output by the power station; a, b, and c represent the translation scaling coefficients, where a affects the amplitude of the power station energy value, b affects the position of the extreme value of the power station energy value, and c affects the degree of difference in the power station energy distribution; The energy variation function representing the charging time factor of the power station, , ;erfc( x ) is erf( x ), which represents the energy variation function of the power station discharge time factor. ; (3) Outputting the determined actual power and the time factor corresponding to the actual power to a power grid dispatching center, and using the power grid dispatching center to put the energy storage power station into use.

2. The method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step (2), the calculation formula for the actual power of the energy storage power station at each time of the next day is: Where, P rc,t 、 P rd,t The corresponding representation is the actual absorption and output power of the energy storage station at each time of the day. t ∈0:00-24:00; P N Indicates the rated power of the power station; P pro,t Indicates the planned output power of the power station at each time of the next day; SOC P Indicates the charging status of the power station.

3. The method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: When the energy storage power station performs peak shaving and valley filling every day, the actual power of the energy storage power station on the following day is determined by time periods. Each time period is determined based on the endpoints of the charging and discharging time periods of the peak shaving and valley filling. The endpoints of the charging and discharging time periods are arranged in chronological order, and the time period formed by the adjacent two endpoints is used as a time period for determining the actual power of the energy storage power station on the following day.

4. The method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step (2), the calculation formula for the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment is: Where, P rnc,t 、 P rnd,t The corresponding representation is the actual absorbed and output power of the energy storage station at the next moment; P N Indicates the rated power of the power station; P pron,t Indicates the planned output power of the power station at the next moment; P t-∆t Indicates the output power of the power station at the previous moment, Δ t Indicates the prediction step size of mid-day power generation forecast; SOC P Indicates the charging status of the power station.

5. The method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor according to claim 4, characterized in that: The prediction step Δ of the mid-day power generation prediction t Set according to the function and capacity of the energy storage power station.

6. The method for predicting power generation of an electrochemical energy storage power station with a time factor according to claim 1, characterized in that: Before step (2), the following steps are also included: The electrical health state S0H of the energy storage power station is obtained. When the electrical health state SOH is higher than or equal to a set value, step (2) is executed. When the electrical health state SOH is lower than the set value and the power generation forecast type is a day-ahead power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are determined to be a constant value of zero. When the electrical health state SOH is lower than the set value and the power generation forecast type is a mid-day power generation forecast, the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power are determined to be zero.

7. An electrochemical energy storage power station power generation prediction system with a time factor, characterized in that: include: a determination module, configured to obtain and determine, based on instructions issued by a power grid dispatching center, a power generation forecast type for an electrochemical energy storage power station, the power generation forecast type including a day-ahead power generation forecast and a mid-day power generation forecast; The power generation prediction module is used to obtain and determine the actual power of the energy storage power station at each moment of the next day and the time factor corresponding to the actual power based on the power station rated power, the power station state of charge, and the power station's planned output power at each moment of the next day when the power generation prediction type is a day-ahead power generation prediction; and to obtain and determine the actual power of the energy storage power station at the next moment and the time factor corresponding to the actual power based on the power station rated power, the power station state of charge, the power station's planned output power at the next moment, and the power station's output power at the previous moment when the power generation prediction type is a mid-day power generation prediction; The calculation formula for the time factor corresponding to the actual power of the energy storage station at each time of the next day is: Where, T c 、 T d The corresponding representation of the actual absorbed power of the energy storage station at each time of the day P rc,t and output power P rd,t The time factor; represents the day-ahead time factor scaling coefficient, ; T c0 ( SOC P ), T d0 ( SOC P ) corresponds to the time factor representing the actual rated power absorbed and output by the power station; a, b, and c represent the translation scaling coefficients, where a affects the amplitude of the power station energy value, b affects the position of the extreme value of the power station energy value, and c affects the degree of difference in the power station energy distribution; The energy variation function representing the charging time factor of the power station, , ;erfc( x ) is erf( x ), which represents the energy variation function of the power station discharge time factor. ; The calculation formula for the time factor corresponding to the actual power of the energy storage station at the next moment is: Where, T nc 、 T nd Corresponding to the actual absorbed power of the energy storage station at the next moment P rnc,t and output power P rnd,t The time factor; x nT Indicates the scaling factor of the time of day, ; T c0 ( SOC P ), T d0 ( SOC P ) corresponds to the time factor representing the actual rated power absorbed and output by the power station; a, b, and c represent the translation scaling coefficients, where a affects the amplitude of the power station energy value, b affects the position of the extreme value of the power station energy value, and c affects the degree of difference in the power station energy distribution; The energy variation function representing the charging time factor of the power station, , ;erfc( x ) is erf( x ), which represents the energy variation function of the power station discharge time factor. ; The output module is used to output the determined actual power and the time factor corresponding to the actual power to the power grid dispatching center, and use the power grid dispatching center to put the energy storage power station into use.

Images