A method and system for event risk assessment that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and system for event risk assessment that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors, and belongs to the field of risk assessment. First, the risk factors associated with a specific risk event are clarified, and the risk factors in the risk factor concentration are combined in sequence according to the subordinate relationship, conditional relationship, and "and" relationship to form a risk factor unit group that is all "or" relationship. Then, the subordinate relationship group in the "or" relationship risk factor unit group is first subjected to elimination judgment processing, and then subjected to conditional judgment processing, and the risk measurement value of each group is calculated in a linear superposition manner of comprehensive evaluation, and the maximum value is taken as the risk assessment value of the risk event. The present invention solves the interference problem of redundant risk factors by identifying and processing the interrelationships between risk factors of a certain risk event, and solves the problem of risk assessment distortion caused by the blunting or sharpening of the risk factor effect by refining the action relationship of risk factors, which can effectively improve the accuracy of risk assessment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of risk assessment, and in particular relates to a method and system for event risk assessment that materializes the interrelationships between risk factors. Background Art

[0002] Hosting large-scale sports events is a crucial vehicle for promoting socioeconomic development and a fundamental need in modern society. However, these events present security risks such as crowds, stampedes, and riots caused by the gathering and dispersal of large numbers of people at specific times and locations. Conducting risk assessments is crucial to improving the security capabilities of large-scale event venues, ensuring safety, maintaining order, preventing crowds, stampedes, disrupting riots, and eradicating unrest.

[0003] At present, the normalized weighted risk assessment method based on the tree-shaped indicator system (referred to as the comprehensive assessment method) is adopted. Its basic approach is to sort out the risk factors that need to be paid attention to in assessing the risk of the risk object to be assessed, and classify the risk factors according to the attribute categories of the risk factors to form an indicator system for risk assessment, and then assign corresponding weights. By weighted summing up the quantitative risk values of each risk factor (indicator), an assessment risk value of the assessment object is obtained.

[0004] However, traditional comprehensive assessment methods stereotype the relationships between risk factors as integrated, linear, and additive, failing to consider the diverse effects and interrelationships between factors within a given risk factor set. Evaluating the combined effects of risk factors uniformly based on linear additive relationships ignores the potential hierarchical and logical relationships between risk factors, as well as their potential differences in effects, reducing the accuracy of risk assessments. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In order to overcome the above technical problems, the present invention proposes a method and system for event risk assessment that concretizes the relationship between risk factors. First, an association matrix between risk factors and risk events is established. After clarifying the risk factors associated with specific risk events, the risk factors in the risk factor set are first combined according to the subordinate relationship, and then the risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are further combined according to the conditional relationship to form independent risk factor units. Then, the risk factor units in the independent risk factor unit set with an "and" relationship are combined to form a risk factor unit group that is all in an "or" relationship. Then, the subordinate relationship group in each "or" relationship risk factor unit group is first eliminated and judged, and then conditional judgment is performed. The risk value is calculated according to the linear superposition method of comprehensive evaluation to obtain the risk calculation value of each "or" relationship risk factor unit group, and the maximum value is taken as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set.

[0006] The technical solution adopted in the present invention is as follows:

[0007] A first object of the present invention is to provide a method for event risk assessment that specifies the interrelationships between risk factors, comprising the following steps:

[0008] Step 1: Obtain the risk events and all risk factors faced by the event venue, and obtain the risk factor set for each risk event;

[0009] Step 2: Analyze the relationships between risk factors and define four relationships between risk factors. Then, determine corresponding processing criteria based on the different relationships between risk factors. The four relationships between risk factors include subordinate relationship, conditional relationship, "and" relationship, and "or" relationship.

[0010] Step 3: For each risk factor set obtained in step 1, first combine the risk factors with subordinate relationships according to the relationship definition and processing criteria in step 2, then combine the risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set according to the conditional relationship to obtain a set of independent risk factor units; combine the risk factor units in the independent risk factor unit set that have an "and" relationship, and finally form a set of risk factor unit groups that all have an "or" relationship;

[0011] Step 4. According to the processing criteria described in step 2, for each risk unit group obtained in step 3, first perform elimination judgment processing on the subordinate risk factor group in the risk factor unit group; then perform conditional judgment processing on the conditional risk factor group in the risk factor unit group to form risk factor units that are all "AND" relationships; then, the "AND" relationship risk factor units formed after the subordinate and conditional relationship processing are risk assessed according to the linear superposition method of comprehensive assessment to obtain the risk calculation value of each risk factor unit group; Step 5: Take the maximum value of the risk calculation values of all risk factor unit groups obtained in step 4 as the risk assessment value of each risk event.

[0012] Furthermore, in step 2, the corresponding treatment criteria are determined based on the different relationships between the risk factors, specifically:

[0013] Subordinate relationship: If risk factor b contains risk factor a, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a subordinate relationship, a∈b. When risk factors a and b appear at the same time, only risk factor b is considered;

[0014] Conditional relationship: If the occurrence of risk factor a is a prerequisite for the effect of risk factor b, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a conditional relationship. When risk factor a does not occur, risk factor b does not need to be considered.

[0015] "AND" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b work together to trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "AND" relationship. The risk factors in the "AND" relationship are processed in a linear superposition manner to assess the risk value;

[0016] "Or" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b can independently trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "OR" relationship. The "OR" relationship risk factors are processed in a maximum value manner to assess the risk value.

[0017] Furthermore, the step 3 is specifically as follows:

[0018] For each risk event R i Risk factor set F i ={b ik f k}, i = 1, 2, ... n; k = 1, 2, ... p; where F i Represents risk event R i The risk factor set, F represents the total risk factor set, b ik represents the correlation between the i-th risk event and the k-th risk factor, b ik =1 indicates association, b ik =0 means no association; b ik f k Represents the i-th risk event R i The kth associated risk factor, n represents the number of risk events, and p represents the number of risk factors in the total risk factor set;

[0019] First, F i The risk factors with subordinate relationships in the risk factor set are combined and recorded as "Gc (slave factor, main factor)"; the risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are further combined according to the conditional relationship, recorded as "Gt (conditional factor, follower factor)" to form independent risk factor units; then the risk factor units with "and" relationship in the independent risk factor unit set are combined, and each risk factor unit group is recorded as "Gy (factor a, factor b...)", and finally a set of risk factor unit groups with all "or" relationships is formed.

[0020] Furthermore, in step 4, the risk estimation value calculation formula of each risk factor unit group in the “and” relationship is:

[0021]

[0022] Among them, P j Represents the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit set of all “OR” relationships corresponding to a certain risk event jThe risk assessment value, Q jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The calculated value of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an “and” relationship in jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The weight of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an “and” relationship in j It is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit set of all “or” relationships corresponding to a certain risk event j The number of independent risk factor units in the .

[0023] Furthermore, the step 5 is specifically as follows: for each risk factor set F i , the risk assessment value of each risk factor unit group of the "OR" relationship obtained in step 4 constitutes the Gy risk value set The maximum value is taken as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set:

[0024]

[0025] Among them, m i is the risk factor set F of the i-th risk event i The number of risk factor unit groups formed by the combination of "or" relationships, H i is the risk assessment value of the i-th risk event.

[0026] A second object of the present invention is to provide a competition risk assessment system that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors, including:

[0027] The event venue and event data acquisition module is used to obtain the risk events and all risk factors faced by the event venue and event, and obtain the risk factor set for each risk event;

[0028] A risk factor relationship establishment module is used to analyze the relationships between risk factors and determine corresponding processing criteria based on the different relationships between risk factors. The relationships between risk factors include subordinate relationships, conditional relationships, "and" relationships, and "or" relationships;

[0029] The risk factor set combination module is used to combine the risk factors in a subordinate relationship according to the processing criteria established by the risk factor relationship establishment module for each risk event risk factor set. The risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are then combined again according to the conditional relationship to obtain a set of independent risk factor units. The risk factor units in the independent risk factor unit set that have an "and" relationship are combined to finally form a set of risk factor unit groups that all have an "or" relationship.

[0030] The risk calculation module is used to perform elimination judgment processing on the subordinate risk factor groups in the risk factor unit group according to the processing criteria established by the risk factor relationship establishment module, and then perform conditional judgment processing on the conditional risk factor groups in the risk factor unit group to form risk factor units that are all "AND" relationships; then, the "AND" relationship risk factor units formed after the subordinate and conditional relationship processing are risk evaluated in a linear superposition manner of comprehensive evaluation to obtain the risk calculation value of each risk factor unit group; the maximum value of the risk calculation values of all risk factor unit groups obtained is used as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set.

[0031] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, in the risk factor relationship establishment module, the processing criteria are specifically as follows:

[0032] Subordinate relationship: If risk factor b contains risk factor a, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a subordinate relationship, a∈b. When risk factors a and b appear at the same time, only risk factor b is considered;

[0033] Conditional relationship: If the occurrence of risk factor a is a prerequisite for the effect of risk factor b, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a conditional relationship. When risk factor a does not occur, risk factor b does not need to be considered.

[0034] "AND" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b work together to trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "AND" relationship. The risk factors in the "AND" relationship are processed in a linear superposition manner to assess the risk value;

[0035] "Or" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b can independently trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "OR" relationship. The "OR" relationship risk factors are processed in a maximum value manner to assess the risk value.

[0036] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the data processing process of the risk factor set combination module is specifically as follows:

[0037] For each risk event R i Risk factor set F i ={b ik f k}, i = 1, 2, ... n; k = 1, 2, ... p; where F i Represents risk event R i The risk factor set, F represents the total risk factor set, b ik represents the correlation between the i-th risk event and the k-th risk factor, b ik =1 indicates association, bik =0 means no association; b ik f k Represents the i-th risk event R i The kth associated risk factor, n represents the number of risk events, and p represents the number of risk factors in the total risk factor set;

[0038] First, F i The risk factors with subordinate relationships in the risk factor set are combined and recorded as "Gc (slave factor, main factor)"; the risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are further combined according to the conditional relationship, recorded as "Gt (conditional factor, follower factor)" to form independent risk factor units; then the risk factor units with "and" relationship in the independent risk factor unit set are combined, and each risk factor unit group is recorded as "Gy (factor a, factor b...)", and finally a set of risk factor unit groups with all "or" relationships is formed.

[0039] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, in the risk calculation module, the risk calculation value calculation formula of each risk factor unit group in the "and" relationship is:

[0040]

[0041] Among them, P j Represents the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit set of all “OR” relationships corresponding to a certain risk event j The risk assessment value, Q jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The calculated value of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an “and” relationship in jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The weight of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an “and” relationship in j It is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit set of all “or” relationships corresponding to a certain risk event j The number of independent risk factor units in the .

[0042] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, in the risk calculation module, the maximum value of the risk calculation values of all risk factor unit groups is obtained as the risk assessment value of each risk event, specifically:

[0043] For each risk factor set F i , the risk assessment value of each risk factor unit group obtained by "or" relationship constitutes the Gy risk value set The maximum value is taken as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set:

[0044]

[0045] Among them, m i is the risk factor set F of the i-th risk event i The number of risk factor unit groups formed by the combination of "or" relationships, H i is the risk assessment value of the i-th risk event.

[0046] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0047] The present invention classifies and combines the risk factors to which the risk events belong based on the occurrence mechanism and evolution and development laws of risk events, forming an independent set of risk factor units with an "OR" relationship between each other, and then calculates the risk value of each "OR" relationship risk factor unit to obtain the risk calculation value of each "OR" relationship risk factor unit, and takes the maximum value as the risk value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set.

[0048] The present invention solves the interference problem of redundant risk factors by identifying and processing the relationships between risk factors in a risk factor concentration of a certain risk event, and solves the problem of risk assessment distortion caused by the blunting or sharpening of the risk factor effects by refining the action relationships of risk factors, which can effectively improve the accuracy of risk assessment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0049] Figure 1 4 is a flow chart of a method for event risk assessment that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors, as shown in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0050] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the following detailed description of the specific embodiments of the present invention is given in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. In the following description, many specific details are set forth to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention.

[0051] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention proposes a method for event risk assessment that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors, which mainly includes the following steps:

[0052] Step 1: In the risk assessment of sports venues and events, according to the characteristics of sports venues and events, list the main risk events and various related risk factors faced by sports venues and events, and form the risk event R i The corresponding risk factor set F i .

[0053] For example, according to the risk orientation of risk factors, for the risk of congestion and stampede, the corresponding risk factor set F1 = {F 11 : Number of viewers, F12 : Attendance rate, F 13 : Age structure, F 14 : Risk factors A, F 15 : Risk factor B}; For the risk of rioting, the corresponding risk factor set F2 = {F 21 : Age structure, F 22 : Risk factors A, F 23 : Risk factor B}; for a predefined event risk, the corresponding risk factor set F3 = {F 31 : Risk factors A, F 32 : Risk factor B}.

[0054] Step 2: Define the relationships between risk factors and identify corresponding treatment criteria based on the different relationships between risk factors;

[0055] In this embodiment, the relationships among the risk factors include subordinate relationships, conditional relationships, and “and / or” relationships.

[0056] Subordinate relationship: If risk factor b contains risk factor a, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a subordinate relationship, a∈b. When risk factors a and b appear at the same time, only risk factor b is considered.

[0057] Conditional relationship: If the occurrence of risk factor a is a prerequisite for the effect of risk factor b, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a conditional relationship. When risk factor a does not occur, there is no need to consider risk factor b.

[0058] "And" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b work together to trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "and" relationship. The "and" relationship risk factors are processed in a linear superposition manner to assess the risk value.

[0059] "Or" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b can independently trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "OR" relationship. The "OR" relationship risk factors are processed in a maximum value manner to assess the risk value.

[0060] Step 3: According to the definition in step 2, for each risk event R i Risk factor set F i ={b ik f k}, (i=1,2,…n;k=1,2,…p) the risk factors with subordinate relationships are combined, which is recorded as Gc (slave factor, main factor); then the risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are combined again according to the conditional relationship, which is recorded as Gt (conditional factor, follower factor), to form independent risk factor units; then the risk factor units with "and" relationship in the independent risk factor unit set are combined, which is recorded as Gy (factor a, factor b…), and finally a set of risk factor unit groups with all "or" relationships is formed.

[0061] For example, the risk factor set F1 corresponding to the congestion stampede risk R1 = {F 11 : Number of viewers, F 12 : Attendance rate, F 13 : Age structure, F 14 : Risk factors A, F 15 : Risk factor B} as an example:

[0062] First, the attendance rate and the number of spectators belong to a subordinate relationship, which is recorded as Gc(attendance rate, number of spectators);

[0063] Then, assume that risk factors A and B are in a conditional relationship, denoted as Gt(risk factor A, risk factor B); at this point, independent risk factor units "Gc(attendance rate, number of audience members)", "Gt(risk factor A, risk factor B)", and "age composition" are formed;

[0064] Then, the risk factor units with an “and” relationship among the three independent risk factor units are combined to obtain “Gy1(Gc(attendance rate, number of audiences), Gt(risk factor A, risk factor B))” and “Gy2(Gc(attendance rate, number of audiences), age composition)”;

[0065] Finally, the two risk factor unit groups obtained above are all in an "or" relationship, that is, after combining according to the above rules, the final "or" relationship risk factor unit group set = {Gy1(Gc(attendance rate, number of spectators), Gt(risk factor A, risk factor B)), Gy2(Gc(attendance rate, number of spectators), age composition)}.

[0066] Step 4: According to the processing criteria of step 2, each risk unit group Gy of the "OR" relationship risk factor unit group set finally obtained after the relationship processing in step 3 is j , first Gy jEliminate the subordinate relationship in the risk factor unit group and perform conditional judgment processing on the conditional relationship risk factor group in the risk factor unit group to form all risk factor units with "and" relationship; then, perform risk assessment on the "and" relationship risk factor units formed after the subordinate and conditional relationship processing according to the linear superposition method of comprehensive assessment to obtain each risk unit group Gy j The risk calculation value is calculated as follows:

[0067]

[0068] Among them, P j Indicates the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit group set with all “OR” relationships corresponding to a certain risk event j The risk assessment value, Q jk is the jth “or” relationship risk factor unit group Gy j The calculated value of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an “and” relationship in jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The weight of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an “and” relationship in j It is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit group set with all “or” relationships corresponding to a certain risk event. j The number of independent risk factor units in the .

[0069] For example, taking the “OR” relationship risk factor unit group set corresponding to the congestion stampede risk R1 = {Gy1(Gc(attendance rate, number of spectators), Gt(risk factor A, risk factor B)), Gy2(Gc(attendance rate, number of spectators), age composition)} as an example, it is necessary to calculate the risk estimation value of the “OR” relationship risk factor unit group Gy1 and Gy2 formed by each combination, specifically:

[0070] Assume that the risk estimates for the number of spectators, attendance rate, age structure, risk factor A, and risk factor B are X1, X2, X3, X4, and X5, respectively;

[0071] According to the processing criteria of step 2, the subordinate relationships of the risk factors are first eliminated to obtain a risk factor set without subordinate risk factor units. In this embodiment, Gc (attendance rate, number of spectators), when there are risk sorting factors, if the "number of spectators" factor exists, only the "number of spectators" risk factor is considered, and the "attendance rate" risk factor is not considered. The risk calculation value is X1;

[0072] Then the risk factor unit group Gy jThe risk factor group with conditional relationship is subjected to conditional judgment processing to obtain a set of risk factor unit groups after conditional judgment processing. In this embodiment, the conditional factor for considering "risk factor B" in Gt (risk factor A, risk factor B) is "risk factor A". If "risk factor B" is "risk factor A", then the "risk factor B" factor needs to be considered, and the risk calculation value is X5. If not, the "risk factor B" factor is not considered.

[0073] By setting weights according to the harmfulness of risk factors, the weight of Gc (attendance rate, number of spectators) is W1, the weight of Gt (risk factor A, risk factor B) is W2, and the weight of "age structure" is W3.

[0074] Then, the risk factor unit group Gy1 (Gc (attendance rate, number of audience members), Gt (risk factor A, risk factor B)) formed by the "and" relationship is evaluated according to the linear superposition method of comprehensive evaluation. If the "audience factor" exists and "risk factor B" is "risk factor A", then:

[0075] P1=X1W1+X5W2

[0076] Similarly, risk assessment is performed on the risk factor unit group Gy2 (Gc (attendance rate, number of audience members), age composition):

[0077] P2=X1W1+X3W3

[0078] In summary, the risk estimation value of each risk factor unit group formed by the "OR" relationship is obtained.

[0079] Step 5: Follow the method in step 4 to calculate the risk factor set F. i , the risk assessment value of each risk factor unit group of the "OR" relationship obtained in step 4 constitutes the Gy risk value set The maximum value is taken as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set:

[0080]

[0081] Among them, m i is the risk factor set F of the i-th risk event i The number of risk factor unit groups formed by the combination of "or" relationships, H i is the risk assessment value of the i-th risk event.

[0082] Corresponding to the aforementioned embodiment of a method for event risk assessment that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors, the present application further provides an embodiment of an event risk assessment system that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors, which includes:

[0083] The event venue and event data acquisition module is used to obtain the risk events and all risk factors faced by the event venue and event, and obtain the risk factor set for each risk event;

[0084] A risk factor relationship establishment module is used to analyze the relationships between risk factors and determine corresponding processing criteria based on the different relationships between risk factors. The relationships between risk factors include subordinate relationships, conditional relationships, "and" relationships, and "or" relationships;

[0085] The risk factor set combination module is used to combine the risk factors in a subordinate relationship according to the processing criteria established by the risk factor relationship establishment module for each risk event risk factor set. The risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are then combined again according to the conditional relationship to obtain a set of independent risk factor units. The risk factor units in the independent risk factor unit set that have an "and" relationship are combined to finally form a set of risk factor unit groups that all have an "or" relationship.

[0086] The risk calculation module is used to perform elimination judgment processing on the subordinate risk factor groups in the risk factor unit group according to the processing criteria established by the risk factor relationship establishment module, and then perform conditional judgment processing on the conditional risk factor groups in the risk factor unit group to form risk factor units that are all "AND" relationships; then, the "AND" relationship risk factor units formed after the subordinate and conditional relationship processing are risk evaluated in a linear superposition manner of comprehensive evaluation to obtain the risk calculation value of each risk factor unit group; the maximum value of the risk calculation values of all risk factor unit groups obtained is used as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set.

[0087] In a specific implementation of the present invention, in the risk factor relationship establishment module, the processing criteria are specifically:

[0088] Subordinate relationship: If risk factor b contains risk factor a, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a subordinate relationship, a∈b. When risk factors a and b appear at the same time, only risk factor b is considered;

[0089] Conditional relationship: If the occurrence of risk factor a is a prerequisite for the effect of risk factor b, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a conditional relationship. When risk factor a does not occur, risk factor b does not need to be considered.

[0090] "AND" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b work together to trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "AND" relationship. The risk factors in the "AND" relationship are processed in a linear superposition manner to assess the risk value;

[0091] "Or" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b can independently trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "OR" relationship. The "OR" relationship risk factors are processed in a maximum value manner to assess the risk value.

[0092] In a specific implementation of the present invention, the data processing process of the risk factor set combination module is specifically as follows:

[0093] For each risk event R i Risk factor set F i ={b ik f k}, i = 1, 2, ... n; k = 1, 2, ... p; where F i Represents risk event R i The risk factor set, F represents the total risk factor set, b ik represents the correlation between the i-th risk event and the k-th risk factor, b ik =1 indicates association, b ik =0 means no association; b ik f k Represents the i-th risk event R i The kth associated risk factor, n represents the number of risk events, and p represents the number of risk factors in the total risk factor set;

[0094] First, F i The risk factors with subordinate relationships in the risk factor set are combined and recorded as "Gc (slave factor, main factor)"; the risk factor groups with conditional relationships in the combined risk factor set are further combined according to the conditional relationship, recorded as "Gt (conditional factor, follower factor)" to form independent risk factor units; the risk factor units with "and" relationships in the independent risk factor unit set are then combined to form risk factor unit groups with "or" relationships, and each "or" relationship risk factor unit group is recorded as "Gy (factor a, factor b...)", and finally a set of risk factor unit groups with all "or" relationships is formed.

[0095] In a specific implementation of the present invention, in the risk calculation module, the risk calculation value calculation formula of each risk factor unit group in the "and" relationship is:

[0096]

[0097] Among them, P j Represents the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit set of all “OR” relationships corresponding to a certain risk event j The risk assessment value, Q jk is the jth “or” relationship risk factor unit group Gy jThe calculated value of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an “and” relationship in jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The weight of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an “and” relationship in j It is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit group set with all “or” relationships corresponding to a certain risk event. j The number of independent risk factor units in the .

[0098] In a specific implementation of the present invention, in the risk calculation module, the maximum value of the risk calculation values of all the risk factor unit groups obtained by "OR" relationship is used as the risk assessment value of each risk event, specifically:

[0099] For each risk factor set F i , the risk assessment value of each risk factor unit group obtained by "or" relationship constitutes the Gy risk value set The maximum value is taken as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set:

[0100]

[0101] Among them, m i is the risk factor set F of the i-th risk event i The number of risk factor unit groups formed by the combination of "or" relationships, H i is the risk assessment value of the i-th risk event.

[0102] Regarding the system in the above embodiment, the specific manner in which each unit or module performs operations has been described in detail in the embodiment of the method, and will not be elaborated here.

[0103] As for the system embodiment, since it basically corresponds to the method embodiment, the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiment. The system embodiment described above is only schematic, wherein the band position coding calculation module and the Transformer reconstruction network construction and training module may or may not be physically separated. In addition, the various functional modules in the present invention can be integrated into one processing unit, or each module can exist physically separately, or two or more modules can be integrated into one unit. The above-mentioned integrated modules or units can be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units, so that some or all of the modules can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the present application.

[0104] The above examples are merely specific embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the present invention is not limited to the above examples, and many variations are possible. All variations that can be directly derived or imagined by a person skilled in the art from the disclosure of the present invention should be considered to be within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for event risk assessment that specifies the interrelationships between risk factors, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Obtain the risk events and all risk factors faced by the event venue, and obtain the risk factor set for each risk event; Step 2: Analyze the relationships between risk factors and define four relationships between risk factors. Then, determine corresponding processing criteria based on the different relationships between risk factors. The four relationships between risk factors include subordinate relationships, conditional relationships, "and" relationships, and "or" relationships. The specific processing criteria are: Subordinate relationship: If risk factor b contains risk factor a, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a subordinate relationship, a∈b. When risk factors a and b appear at the same time, only risk factor b is considered; Conditional relationship: If the occurrence of risk factor a is a prerequisite for the effect of risk factor b, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a conditional relationship. When risk factor a does not occur, risk factor b does not need to be considered. "AND" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b work together to trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "AND" relationship. The risk factors in the "AND" relationship are processed in a linear superposition manner to assess the risk value; "OR" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b can independently trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "OR" relationship. The maximum value of the "OR" relationship risk factors is taken to assess the risk value. Step 3: For each risk factor set obtained in Step 1, first combine the risk factors with subordinate relationships according to the relationship definition and processing criteria in Step 2. Then, combine the risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set according to the conditional relationship to obtain a set of independent risk factor units. Then, combine the risk factor units in the independent risk factor unit set that have an "and" relationship to finally form a set of risk factor unit groups that all have an "or" relationship. Step 4: Based on the processing criteria described in step 2, for each risk unit group obtained in step 3, first perform elimination judgment processing on the subordinate risk factor groups in the risk factor unit group; then perform conditional judgment processing on the conditional risk factor groups in the risk factor unit group, forming risk factor units that all have "AND" relationships; Then, the "AND" relationship risk factor units formed after the subordinate and conditional relationship processing are subjected to risk assessment using the linear superposition method of comprehensive assessment to obtain the risk calculation value of each risk factor unit group; Step 5: Take the maximum value of the risk measurement values of all risk factor unit groups obtained in step 4 as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set.

2. A method for event risk assessment that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step 3 is specifically as follows: For each risk event R i Risk factor set F i ={b ik f k }, i = 1, 2, ... n; k = 1, 2, ... p; where F i Represents risk event R i The risk factor set, F represents the total risk factor set, b ik represents the correlation between the i-th risk event and the k-th risk factor, b ik =1 indicates association, b ik =0 means no association; b ik f k Represents the i-th risk event R i The kth associated risk factor, n represents the number of risk events, and p represents the number of risk factors in the total risk factor set; First, F i The risk factors with subordinate relationships in the risk factor set are combined and recorded as "Gc (slave factor, main factor)"; the risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are further combined according to the conditional relationship, recorded as "Gt (conditional factor, follower factor)" to form independent risk factor units; then the risk factor units with "and" relationships in the independent risk factor unit set are combined, and each risk factor unit group is recorded as "Gy (factor a, factor b...)", and finally a set of risk factor unit groups with all "or" relationships is formed.

3. The event risk assessment method for materializing the interrelationships between risk factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 4, the risk estimation value calculation formula for each risk factor unit group in the "and" relationship is: Among them, P j Represents the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit set of all "OR" relationships corresponding to a certain risk event j The risk assessment value, Q jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The calculated value of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an "and" relationship in jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The weight of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an "and" relationship in j It is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit group set with all "OR" relationships corresponding to a certain risk event. j The number of independent risk factor units in the .

4. The event risk assessment method for materializing the interrelationships between risk factors according to claim 3, characterized in that: The step 5 is specifically as follows: for each risk factor set F i , the risk assessment value of each risk factor unit group of "OR" relationship obtained in step 4 constitutes the Gy risk value set The maximum value is taken as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set: Among them, m i is the risk factor set F of the i-th risk event i The number of risk factor unit groups formed by the combination of "OR" relationships, H i is the risk assessment value of the i-th risk event.

5. A competition risk assessment system that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors, characterized by: include: The event venue and event data acquisition module is used to obtain the risk events and all risk factors faced by the event venue and event, and obtain the risk factor set for each risk event; The risk factor relationship establishment module is used to analyze the relationships between risk factors and determine corresponding processing criteria based on the different relationships between risk factors. The relationships between risk factors include subordinate relationships, conditional relationships, "and" relationships, and "or" relationships. The specific processing criteria are: Subordinate relationship: If risk factor b contains risk factor a, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a subordinate relationship, a∈b. When risk factors a and b appear at the same time, only risk factor b is considered; Conditional relationship: If the occurrence of risk factor a is a prerequisite for the effect of risk factor b, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in a conditional relationship. When risk factor a does not occur, risk factor b does not need to be considered. "AND" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b work together to trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "AND" relationship. The risk factors in the "AND" relationship are processed in a linear superposition manner to assess the risk value; "OR" relationship: If risk factor a and risk factor b can independently trigger or cause a risk event, then risk factor a and risk factor b are in an "OR" relationship. The maximum value of the "OR" relationship risk factors is taken to assess the risk value. The risk factor set combination module is used to combine the risk factors in a subordinate relationship according to the processing criteria established by the risk factor relationship establishment module for each risk event risk factor set. The risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are then combined again according to the conditional relationship to obtain a set of independent risk factor units. The risk factor units in the independent risk factor unit set that have an "and" relationship are combined to finally form a set of risk factor unit groups that all have an "or" relationship. The risk calculation module is used to perform elimination judgment processing on the subordinate risk factor groups in the risk factor unit groups according to the processing criteria established by the risk factor relationship establishment module; and then perform conditional judgment processing on the conditional risk factor groups in the risk factor unit groups to form risk factor units with all "and" relationships; Afterwards, the "AND" relationship risk factor units formed after the subordinate and conditional relationship processing are risk assessed according to the linear superposition method of comprehensive assessment to obtain the risk measurement value of each risk factor unit group; the maximum value of the risk measurement values of all risk factor unit groups obtained is used as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set.

6. The event risk assessment system that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors according to claim 5, characterized in that: The data processing process of the risk factor set combination module is specifically as follows: For each risk event R i Risk factor set F i ={b ik f k }, i = 1, 2, ... n; k = 1, 2, ... p; where F i Represents risk event R i The risk factor set, F represents the total risk factor set, b ik represents the correlation between the i-th risk event and the k-th risk factor, b ik =1 indicates association, b ik =0 means no association; b ik f k Represents the i-th risk event R i The kth associated risk factor, n represents the number of risk events, and p represents the number of risk factors in the total risk factor set; First, F i The risk factors with subordinate relationships in the risk factor set are combined and recorded as "Gc (slave factor, main factor)"; the risk factor groups in the combined risk factor set are further combined according to the conditional relationship, recorded as "Gt (conditional factor, follower factor)" to form independent risk factor units; then the risk factor units with "and" relationships in the independent risk factor unit set are combined, and each risk factor unit group is recorded as "Gy (factor a, factor b...)", and finally a set of risk factor unit groups with all "or" relationships is formed.

7. The event risk assessment system that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors according to claim 5, characterized in that: In the risk calculation module, the risk calculation value calculation formula for each risk factor unit group in the "and" relationship is: Among them, P j Represents the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit set of all "OR" relationships corresponding to a certain risk event j The risk assessment value, Q jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The calculated value of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an "and" relationship in jk is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy j The weight of the k-th independent risk factor unit that has an "and" relationship in j It is the j-th risk factor unit group Gy in the risk factor unit set of all "OR" relationships corresponding to a certain risk event j The number of independent risk factor units in the .

8. The event risk assessment system that embodies the interrelationships between risk factors according to claim 7, characterized in that: In the risk calculation module, the maximum value of the risk calculation values of all risk factor unit groups obtained is used as the risk assessment value of each risk event, specifically: For each risk factor set F i The risk assessment value of each risk factor unit group obtained by "OR" relationship constitutes the Gy risk value set The maximum value is taken as the risk assessment value of the risk event corresponding to the risk factor set: Among them, m i is the risk factor set F of the i-th risk event i The number of risk factor unit groups formed by the combination of "OR" relationships, H i is the risk assessment value of the i-th risk event.

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