An OPGW optical cable life prediction method, device and equipment based on environmental parameters

Abstract

The present application relates to the technical field of cable life prediction, and discloses an OPGW optical cable life prediction method, device and equipment based on environmental parameters.The present application carries out accelerated aging test on the target OPGW optical cable, constructs a life prediction model of the target OPGW optical cable based on the obtained test data, determines the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable based on the life prediction model, obtains real-time data of the target OPGW optical cable in the actual application environment, including environmental parameters, carries out optical cable life prediction by using the life prediction model based on the real-time data, calculates the deviation degree of the obtained prediction result and the safe service life, and judges whether the target OPGW optical cable reaches the service life according to the obtained deviation degree calculation result.The present application realizes the estimation of whether the OPGW optical cable reaches the service life, carries out replacement of the OPGW optical cable based on the estimation result, is favorable for reducing the operation cost of the power system, and improves the operation reliability.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of cable life prediction technology, and in particular to a method, apparatus and equipment for predicting the life of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters. Background Technology

[0002] OPGW (Optical Fiber-Coated Overhead Ground Wire) cable is a composite overhead ground wire that integrates grounding and communication functions, and is now widely used in power systems. During operation, OPGW cables are often exposed to complex and harsh environments, enduring the effects of icing, lightning, strong winds, heavy rain, and high temperatures, making them a vulnerable link in the transmission network. The health of the OPGW cable's operation directly affects the communication security of the power system. With the increasing number of ultra-high voltage, long-distance, and important overhead transmission lines, the safety of OPGW cables in complex environments is becoming increasingly prominent.

[0003] Currently, there is no universal standard for replacing OPGW optical cables. Furthermore, the different manufacturing processes and materials used in various OPGW optical cables make it difficult to refer to established guidelines and predict the optimal time for OPGW optical cable maintenance and replacement. Failure to maintain and replace OPGW optical cables in a timely manner can easily lead to frequent accidents, significantly reducing the reliability of power system operation.

[0004] The lifespan of OPGW optical cables is related to factors such as the cable's materials, structure, line conditions, natural environment, construction methods, and whether they have been struck by lightning. The lifespan of OPGW optical cables that have exceeded a certain number of years varies considerably. Some have been decommissioned after being struck by lightning, some are in good condition and can continue operating, while others in poor condition require lifespan assessment. Adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the maintenance or decommissioning of OPGW optical cables would result in significant economic losses.

[0005] Therefore, it is necessary to assess whether the OPGW optical cable has reached its service life based on relevant data during its use, so as to provide sufficient basis for the replacement of the OPGW optical cable. Summary of the Invention

[0006] This invention provides a method, apparatus, and equipment for predicting the lifespan of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters, which solves the technical problem in the prior art that it is impossible to predict whether OPGW optical cables have reached their lifespan, which can easily lead to cost waste and reduced reliability of power system operation.

[0007] The first aspect of this invention provides a method for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters, comprising:

[0008] Accelerated aging tests were conducted on the target OPGW optical cable to obtain the corresponding test data;

[0009] A lifetime prediction model for the target OPGW optical cable is constructed based on the experimental data.

[0010] The safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable is determined based on the life prediction model.

[0011] Acquire real-time data of the target OPGW optical cable in a real-world application environment; the real-time data includes environmental parameters;

[0012] Based on the real-time data, the lifetime prediction model is used to predict the lifetime of the target OPGW optical cable, and the prediction result is obtained.

[0013] Calculate the deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life to obtain the deviation calculation result;

[0014] The deviation calculation results are used to determine whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life.

[0015] According to one feasible method of the first aspect of the present invention, the accelerated aging test on the target OPGW optical cable includes:

[0016] Obtain historical relevant data of the target OPGW optical cable;

[0017] A simulation model of the target OPGW optical cable is constructed based on the historical data.

[0018] Accelerated aging tests were conducted based on the simulation model.

[0019] According to one aspect of the present invention, the step of constructing a simulation model of the target OPGW optical cable based on the historical relevant data includes:

[0020] The devices corresponding to the historical data are modeled using a 3D modeling strategy;

[0021] The various devices are assembled and connected according to the actual operating scenario of the target OPGW optical cable;

[0022] The operation of the corresponding 3D model can be controlled using C++ or Java programming languages ​​to realize the construction of simulation models.

[0023] According to one achievable method of the first aspect of the present invention, the lifetime prediction model includes:

[0024] The function used to calculate the probability of a failure in the target OPGW optical cable:

[0025]

[0026] In the formula, G(x) represents the probability of the target OPGW optical cable failing, δ represents the total working time and δ>0, τ represents the state parameter and γ>0, and x represents the position parameter and τ≥0.

[0027] According to one achievable method of the first aspect of the present invention, determining the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable based on the lifetime prediction model includes:

[0028] The maximum value of the function representing the probability of failure of the target OPGW optical cable is obtained to determine the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable. The corresponding formula is as follows:

[0029]

[0030] The constraints are:

[0031]

[0032] In the formula, p e θ represents the duration of an experiment under a certain environmental condition. CM θ represents the acceleration factor. PM ε represents the operating efficiency, Q is the preset adjustment function, P(t) represents the average available time, ε represents the minimum safe service life, and t represents the safe service life.

[0033] According to one feasible method of the first aspect of the present invention, calculating the deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life includes:

[0034] The average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life is calculated using the following formula:

[0035]

[0036] In the formula, L0 represents the average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life, n represents the number of sample data corresponding to the predicted result, and 3≤n≤7, b i a represents the i-th sample data in the prediction result. i This represents the safe service life corresponding to the i-th sample data, where i = 1,,2,…,n;

[0037] Calculate the deviation value for each sample data:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula, This represents the deviation value of the i-th sample data;

[0040] Calculate the deviation of the i-th sample data from the corresponding safe service life:

[0041]

[0042] In the formula, This represents the deviation of the i-th sample data from the corresponding safe service life.

[0043] According to a method achievable according to a first aspect of the present invention, determining whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life based on the deviation calculation result includes:

[0044] Calculate the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life:

[0045]

[0046] In the formula, Δ represents the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life;

[0047] When the calculated average deviation value is lower than the preset deviation threshold, the target OPGW optical cable is determined to have reached its service life.

[0048] A second aspect of the present invention provides an OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction device based on environmental parameters, comprising:

[0049] The test module is used to conduct accelerated aging tests on the target OPGW optical cable and obtain corresponding test data.

[0050] A construction module is used to construct a lifetime prediction model for the target OPGW optical cable based on the test data;

[0051] The determination module is used to determine the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable based on the life prediction model;

[0052] The acquisition module is used to acquire real-time data of the target OPGW optical cable in a real-world application environment; the real-time data includes environmental parameters.

[0053] The prediction module is used to predict the lifetime of the target OPGW optical cable based on the real-time data using the lifetime prediction model, and obtain the prediction result.

[0054] The calculation module is used to calculate the deviation between the prediction result and the safe service life, and obtain the deviation calculation result;

[0055] The judgment module is used to determine whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life based on the deviation calculation result.

[0056] According to one achievable embodiment of the second aspect of the invention, the test module comprises:

[0057] The acquisition unit is used to acquire historical relevant data of the target OPGW optical cable;

[0058] A construction unit is used to construct a simulation model of the target OPGW optical cable based on the historical relevant data;

[0059] The test unit is used to conduct accelerated aging tests based on the simulation model.

[0060] According to one achievable method of the second aspect of the invention, the building unit is specifically used for:

[0061] The devices corresponding to the historical data are modeled using a 3D modeling strategy;

[0062] The various devices are assembled and connected according to the actual operating scenario of the target OPGW optical cable;

[0063] The operation of the corresponding 3D model can be controlled using C++ or Java programming languages ​​to realize the construction of simulation models.

[0064] According to one achievable method of the second aspect of the present invention, the lifetime prediction model includes:

[0065] The function used to calculate the probability of a failure in the target OPGW optical cable:

[0066]

[0067] In the formula, G(x) represents the probability of the target OPGW optical cable failing, δ represents the total working time and δ>0, τ represents the state parameter and γ>0, and x represents the position parameter and τ≥0.

[0068] According to one achievable embodiment of the second aspect of the present invention, the determining module comprises:

[0069] The calculation unit is used to calculate the maximum value of a function representing the probability of failure of the target OPGW optical cable to obtain the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable. The corresponding calculation formula is as follows:

[0070]

[0071] The constraints are:

[0072]

[0073] In the formula, p e θ represents the duration of an experiment under a certain environmental condition. CM θ represents the acceleration factor. PMε represents the operating efficiency, Q is the preset adjustment function, P(t) represents the average available time, ε represents the minimum safe service life, and t represents the safe service life.

[0074] According to one achievable embodiment of the second aspect of the invention, the computing module includes:

[0075] The first calculation unit is used to calculate the average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life according to the following formula:

[0076]

[0077] In the formula, L0 represents the average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life, n represents the number of sample data corresponding to the predicted result, and 3≤n≤7, b i a represents the i-th sample data in the prediction result. i This represents the safe service life corresponding to the i-th sample data, where i = 1,,2,…,n;

[0078] The second calculation unit is used to calculate the deviation value for each sample data:

[0079]

[0080] In the formula, This represents the deviation value of the i-th sample data;

[0081] The third calculation unit is used to calculate the deviation between the i-th sample data and the corresponding safe service life:

[0082]

[0083] In the formula, This represents the deviation of the i-th sample data from the corresponding safe service life.

[0084] According to one achievable embodiment of the second aspect of the present invention, the determining module includes:

[0085] The fourth calculation unit is used to calculate the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life:

[0086]

[0087] In the formula, Δ represents the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life;

[0088] The judgment unit is used to determine that the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life when the obtained average deviation calculation value is lower than the preset deviation threshold.

[0089] A third aspect of the present invention provides an OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction device based on environmental parameters, comprising:

[0090] A memory for storing instructions; wherein the instructions are used to implement the environmental parameter-based OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction method as described in any of the above-mentioned ways;

[0091] A processor for executing instructions in the memory.

[0092] The fourth aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction method based on environmental parameters as described in any of the above embodiments.

[0093] As can be seen from the above technical solutions, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0094] This invention conducts accelerated aging tests on target OPGW optical cables, constructs a lifespan prediction model for the target OPGW optical cables based on the obtained test data, and determines the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cables based on the lifespan prediction model. It acquires real-time data of the target OPGW optical cables under actual application environments, including environmental parameters; predicts the cable lifespan using the lifespan prediction model based on this real-time data; calculates the deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life; and determines whether the target OPGW optical cables have reached their service life based on the calculated deviation. This invention enables the prediction of whether OPGW optical cables have reached their service life, and allows for the replacement of OPGW optical cables based on the prediction results, which helps reduce power system operating costs and improve power system operational reliability. Attached Figure Description

[0095] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0096] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating an optional embodiment of the present invention for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters;

[0097] Figure 2 The diagram below shows the structural connection of an OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction device based on environmental parameters, provided as an optional embodiment of the present invention.

[0098] Figure label:

[0099] 1-Experiment module; 2-Construction module; 3-Determination module; 4-Acquisition module; 5-Prediction module; 6-Calculation module; 7-Judgment module. Detailed Implementation

[0100] This invention provides a method, apparatus, and equipment for predicting the lifespan of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters, which solves the technical problem in the prior art that it is impossible to predict whether OPGW optical cables have reached their lifespan, which can easily lead to cost waste and reduced reliability of power system operation.

[0101] To make the objectives, features, and advantages of this invention more apparent and understandable, the technical solutions of the embodiments of this invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the embodiments described below are only some embodiments of this invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of this invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of this invention.

[0102] This invention provides a method for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters.

[0103] Please see Figure 1 , Figure 1 A flowchart of an OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction method based on environmental parameters provided by an embodiment of the present invention is shown.

[0104] The present invention provides a method for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters, including steps S1-S7.

[0105] Step S1: Conduct accelerated aging tests on the target OPGW optical cable to obtain the corresponding test data.

[0106] In this embodiment, the target OPGW optical cable is the OPGW optical cable for which optical cable lifetime prediction is to be performed.

[0107] In one feasible approach, when conducting accelerated aging tests on target OPGW optical cables, sample selection conditions can be set according to actual conditions, and several OPGW optical cable samples can be selected for accelerated aging tests based on these conditions.

[0108] In another feasible approach, the accelerated aging test on the target OPGW optical cable includes:

[0109] Obtain historical relevant data of the target OPGW optical cable;

[0110] A simulation model of the target OPGW optical cable is constructed based on the historical data.

[0111] Accelerated aging tests were conducted based on the simulation model.

[0112] The historical data includes the optical cable structure, cross-sectional area, model, outer single-wire type, outer single-wire diameter, optical fiber type, number of optical fiber cores, average bidirectional attenuation coefficient per reel and fiber after OPGW cabling, outer diameter, mass per unit length, rated breaking force, DC resistance, allowable short-circuit current capacity, maximum allowable temperature, lightning strike energy, tensile force to weight ratio, elastic modulus, coefficient of linear expansion, maximum allowable tensile force, annual average operating tension, minimum allowable bending tension, maximum allowable installation tension, shaft size, maximum reel length, and other relevant operating data of OPGW optical cables.

[0113] In this embodiment, by constructing a simulation model and conducting accelerated aging tests based on the simulation model, the efficiency of the test can be improved.

[0114] In one feasible approach, constructing a simulation model of the target OPGW optical cable based on the historical relevant data includes:

[0115] The devices corresponding to the historical data are modeled using a 3D modeling strategy;

[0116] The various devices are assembled and connected according to the actual operating scenario of the target OPGW optical cable;

[0117] The operation of the corresponding 3D model can be controlled using C++ or Java programming languages ​​to realize the construction of simulation models.

[0118] As a specific implementation method, the equipment parameters used for assembly and connection can be obtained in advance and stored in a database. When assembling and connecting each device according to the actual operating scenario of the target OPGW optical cable, the equipment parameters in the database can be directly called to assemble and connect each device.

[0119] It should be noted that in other implementations, existing software can be used instead of C++ and Java programming languages ​​to control the running state of the corresponding 3D model.

[0120] It should be noted that the specific test process for accelerated aging testing can refer to existing technologies, and this embodiment does not limit it. For example, vibration tests can be conducted on the simulation model under different tensile stresses; under each tensile stress, test samples of the simulation model with different aging times are extracted; fatigue performance tests are performed on each test sample to obtain the cable fatigue values ​​of the simulation model under different tensile stresses and different aging times.

[0121] As one implementation method, corresponding accelerated aging test factors can be set, such as extremely harsh environments, to speed up the test process through accelerated aging tests.

[0122] Step S2: Construct a lifetime prediction model for the target OPGW optical cable based on the test data.

[0123] It should be noted that the construction of the lifetime prediction model for the target OPGW optical cable can refer to existing technologies.

[0124] In one feasible manner, the lifetime prediction model includes:

[0125] The function used to calculate the probability of a failure in the target OPGW optical cable:

[0126]

[0127] In the formula, G(x) represents the probability of the target OPGW optical cable failing, δ represents the total working time and δ>0, τ represents the state parameter and γ>0, and x represents the position parameter and τ≥0.

[0128] Furthermore, the lifetime prediction model also includes:

[0129] Density distribution function used to calculate the probability of failure in OPGW optical cables:

[0130]

[0131] The probability function used to calculate OPGW fiber optic cable failure:

[0132]

[0133] Step S3: Determine the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable based on the life prediction model.

[0134] In one feasible manner, determining the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable based on the lifetime prediction model includes:

[0135] The maximum value of the function representing the probability of failure of the target OPGW optical cable is obtained to determine the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable. The corresponding formula is as follows:

[0136]

[0137] The constraints are:

[0138]

[0139] In the formula, p e θ represents the duration of an experiment under a certain environmental condition.CM θ represents the acceleration factor. PM ε represents the operating efficiency, Q is the preset adjustment function, P(t) represents the average available time, ε represents the minimum safe service life, and t represents the safe service life.

[0140] The minimum safe service life of the optical cable can be calculated by inversely estimating the maximum value of the function of the probability of failure of the target OPGW optical cable.

[0141] Step S4: Obtain real-time data of the target OPGW optical cable in a real-world application environment; the real-time data includes environmental parameters.

[0142] Step S5: Based on the real-time data, use the lifetime prediction model to predict the lifetime of the target OPGW optical cable and obtain the prediction result;

[0143] Step S6: Calculate the deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life to obtain the deviation calculation result.

[0144] In one feasible manner, calculating the deviation of the predicted result from the safe service life includes:

[0145] The average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life is calculated using the following formula:

[0146]

[0147] In the formula, L0 represents the average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life, n represents the number of sample data corresponding to the predicted result, and 3≤n≤7, b i a represents the i-th sample data in the prediction result. i This represents the safe service life corresponding to the i-th sample data, where i = 1,,2,…,n;

[0148] Calculate the deviation value for each sample data:

[0149]

[0150] In the formula, This represents the deviation value of the i-th sample data;

[0151] Calculate the deviation of the i-th sample data from the corresponding safe service life:

[0152]

[0153] In the formula, This represents the deviation of the i-th sample data from the corresponding safe service life.

[0154] Deviation refers to the proportion of the absolute value of the difference between the actual data and the target data to the target data. This embodiment provides a specific formula for calculating deviation, based on which the deviation between the predicted result and the stated safe service life is calculated; the method is simple and convenient. A larger calculated deviation indicates that the target OPGW optical cable is still far from reaching its service life; a smaller calculated deviation indicates that the target OPGW optical cable is closer to reaching its service life.

[0155] Step S7: Determine whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life based on the deviation calculation result.

[0156] In one feasible approach, determining whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life based on the deviation calculation result includes:

[0157] Calculate the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life:

[0158]

[0159] In the formula, Δ represents the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life;

[0160] When the calculated average deviation value is lower than the preset deviation threshold, the target OPGW optical cable is determined to have reached its service life.

[0161] In this embodiment, the target OPGW optical cable is judged to have reached its service life by comparing the average deviation with the preset deviation threshold, which improves the accuracy of the prediction of whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life.

[0162] In other feasible methods, the maximum and minimum values ​​in the deviation calculation results between the prediction results and the safe service life can be further removed, and the average deviation between the prediction results and the safe service life can be calculated based on the remaining deviation calculation results.

[0163] In other feasible methods, the deviations in the prediction results and the deviation calculation results of the safe service life can be sorted, and the median value of the sorted deviation set can be compared with a preset deviation threshold to determine whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life.

[0164] In the above embodiments of the present invention, the collected real-time data is input into the life prediction model of the target OPGW optical cable, and the calculation results are compared with the safe service life. The deviation is used to determine whether the OPGW optical cable has reached its service life, thus achieving an accurate prediction of whether the OPGW optical cable has reached its service life. The replacement of the OPGW optical cable based on the prediction results can improve the reliability of the power system operation. Compared with the method of taking a one-size-fits-all approach to the maintenance or decommissioning of OPGW optical cables, it can effectively reduce the operating cost of the power system.

[0165] The present invention also provides an OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction device based on environmental parameters, which can be used to perform the OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction method based on environmental parameters described in any of the above embodiments of the present invention.

[0166] Please see Figure 2 , Figure 2 The diagram shows a structural connection block diagram of an OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction device based on environmental parameters provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0167] An embodiment of the present invention provides an OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction device based on environmental parameters, comprising:

[0168] Test module 1 is used to conduct accelerated aging tests on the target OPGW optical cable and obtain the corresponding test data;

[0169] Module 2 is used to construct a lifetime prediction model for the target OPGW optical cable based on the test data;

[0170] Module 3 is used to determine the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable based on the life prediction model.

[0171] Acquisition module 4 is used to acquire real-time data of the target OPGW optical cable in a real-world application environment; the real-time data includes environmental parameters;

[0172] Prediction module 5 is used to predict the lifetime of the target OPGW optical cable based on the real-time data using the lifetime prediction model, and obtain the prediction result;

[0173] Calculation module 6 is used to calculate the deviation between the prediction result and the safe service life, and obtain the deviation calculation result;

[0174] The judgment module 7 is used to determine whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life based on the deviation calculation result.

[0175] In one feasible manner, the test module 1 includes:

[0176] The acquisition unit is used to acquire historical relevant data of the target OPGW optical cable;

[0177] A construction unit is used to construct a simulation model of the target OPGW optical cable based on the historical relevant data;

[0178] The test unit is used to conduct accelerated aging tests based on the simulation model.

[0179] In one feasible manner, the building unit is specifically used for:

[0180] The devices corresponding to the historical data are modeled using a 3D modeling strategy;

[0181] The various devices are assembled and connected according to the actual operating scenario of the target OPGW optical cable;

[0182] The operation of the corresponding 3D model can be controlled using C++ or Java programming languages ​​to realize the construction of simulation models.

[0183] In one feasible manner, the lifetime prediction model includes:

[0184] The function used to calculate the probability of a failure in the target OPGW optical cable:

[0185]

[0186] In the formula, G(x) represents the probability of the target OPGW optical cable failing, δ represents the total working time and δ>0, τ represents the state parameter and γ>0, and x represents the position parameter and τ≥0.

[0187] In one feasible manner, the determining module 3 includes:

[0188] The calculation unit is used to calculate the maximum value of a function representing the probability of failure of the target OPGW optical cable to obtain the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable. The corresponding calculation formula is as follows:

[0189]

[0190] The constraints are:

[0191]

[0192] In the formula, p e θ represents the duration of an experiment under a certain environmental condition. CM θ represents the acceleration factor. PM ε represents the operating efficiency, Q is the preset adjustment function, P(t) represents the average available time, ε represents the minimum safe service life, and t represents the safe service life.

[0193] In one feasible manner, the computing module 6 includes:

[0194] The first calculation unit is used to calculate the average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life according to the following formula:

[0195]

[0196] In the formula, L0 represents the average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life, n represents the number of sample data corresponding to the predicted result, and 3≤n≤7, b i a represents the i-th sample data in the prediction result. i This represents the safe service life corresponding to the i-th sample data, where i = 1,,2,…,n;

[0197] The second calculation unit is used to calculate the deviation value for each sample data:

[0198] θ i =(a i -b i )-L0

[0199] In the formula, This represents the deviation value of the i-th sample data;

[0200] The third calculation unit is used to calculate the deviation between the i-th sample data and the corresponding safe service life:

[0201]

[0202] In the formula, This represents the deviation of the i-th sample data from the corresponding safe service life.

[0203] In one feasible implementation, the determination module 7 includes:

[0204] The fourth calculation unit is used to calculate the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life:

[0205]

[0206] In the formula, Δ represents the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life;

[0207] The judgment unit is used to determine that the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life when the obtained average deviation calculation value is lower than the preset deviation threshold.

[0208] The present invention also provides an OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction device based on environmental parameters, comprising:

[0209] A memory for storing instructions; wherein the instructions are used to implement the OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction method based on environmental parameters as described in any of the above embodiments;

[0210] A processor for executing instructions in the memory.

[0211] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction method based on environmental parameters as described in any of the above embodiments.

[0212] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working processes of the devices, equipment, modules, and units described above can be referred to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and the specific beneficial effects of the devices, equipment, modules, and units described above can be referred to the corresponding beneficial effects in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0213] In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus, devices, and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the apparatus embodiments described above are merely illustrative; for instance, the division of modules is only a logical functional division, and in actual implementation, there may be other division methods. For example, multiple modules or components may be combined or integrated into another device, or some features may be ignored or not executed. Furthermore, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed may be through some interfaces; the indirect coupling or communication connection between devices or modules may be electrical, mechanical, or other forms.

[0214] The modules described as separate components may or may not be physically separate. The components shown as modules may or may not be physical modules; that is, they may be located in one place or distributed across multiple network modules. Some or all of the modules can be selected to achieve the purpose of this embodiment according to actual needs.

[0215] Furthermore, the functional modules in the various embodiments of the present invention can be integrated into one processing module, or each module can exist physically separately, or two or more modules can be integrated into one module. The integrated modules described above can be implemented in hardware or as software functional modules.

[0216] If the integrated module is implemented as a software functional module and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods described in the various embodiments of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes various media capable of storing program code, such as USB flash drives, portable hard drives, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disks, or optical disks.

[0217] The above-described embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and are not intended to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some of the technical features. Such modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters, characterized in that, include: Accelerated aging tests were conducted on the target OPGW optical cable to obtain the corresponding test data; A lifetime prediction model for the target OPGW optical cable is constructed based on the experimental data. The safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable is determined based on the life prediction model. Acquire real-time data of the target OPGW optical cable in a real-world application environment; the real-time data includes environmental parameters; based on the real-time data, use the lifetime prediction model to predict the lifetime of the target OPGW optical cable and obtain the prediction result; Calculate the deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life to obtain the deviation calculation result; Based on the deviation calculation results, determine whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life. The lifetime prediction model includes: The function used to calculate the probability of a failure in the target OPGW optical cable: In the formula, This indicates the probability of a failure in the target OPGW optical cable. Indicates total working time and , Represents state parameters and , Indicates positional parameters and ; Determining the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable based on the life prediction model includes: The maximum value of the function representing the probability of failure of the target OPGW optical cable is obtained to determine the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable. The corresponding formula is as follows: The constraints are: In the formula, This indicates the duration of an experiment under a certain environmental condition. Indicates the acceleration factor. Indicates operating efficiency. This is a preset adjustment function. Indicates the average available time. Indicates the minimum safe service life. Indicates the safe service life.

2. The method for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The accelerated aging test on the target OPGW optical cable includes: Obtain historical relevant data of the target OPGW optical cable; A simulation model of the target OPGW optical cable is constructed based on the historical data. Accelerated aging tests were conducted based on the simulation model.

3. The method for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters according to claim 2, characterized in that, The simulation model of the target OPGW optical cable constructed based on the historical relevant data includes: The devices corresponding to the historical data are modeled using a 3D modeling strategy; The various devices are assembled and connected according to the actual operating scenario of the target OPGW optical cable; The operation of the corresponding 3D model can be controlled using C++ or Java programming languages ​​to realize the construction of simulation models.

4. The method for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The calculation of the deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life includes: The average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life is calculated using the following formula: In the formula, This represents the average difference between the predicted result and the corresponding safe service life. This indicates the number of sample data corresponding to the prediction result, and , Indicating the prediction result of the first... One sample data, Indicates the first The safe service life corresponding to each sample data point, among which ; Calculate the deviation value for each sample data: In the formula, Indicates the first The deviation value of each sample data; Calculate the first Deviation of individual sample data from the corresponding safe service life: In the formula, Indicates the first The deviation of individual sample data from the corresponding safe service life.

5. The method for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters according to claim 4, characterized in that, The step of determining whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life based on the deviation calculation result includes: Calculate the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life: In the formula, This indicates the average deviation between the predicted result and the safe service life; When the calculated average deviation value is lower than the preset deviation threshold, the target OPGW optical cable is determined to have reached its service life.

6. A device for predicting the lifetime of OPGW optical cables based on environmental parameters, characterized in that, include: The test module is used to conduct accelerated aging tests on the target OPGW optical cable and obtain corresponding test data. A construction module is used to construct a lifetime prediction model for the target OPGW optical cable based on the test data; The determination module is used to determine the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable based on the life prediction model; The acquisition module is used to acquire real-time data of the target OPGW optical cable in a real-world application environment; the real-time data includes environmental parameters. The prediction module is used to predict the lifetime of the target OPGW optical cable based on the real-time data using the lifetime prediction model, and obtain the prediction result. The calculation module is used to calculate the deviation between the prediction result and the safe service life, and obtain the deviation calculation result; The judgment module is used to determine whether the target OPGW optical cable has reached its service life based on the deviation calculation result; The lifetime prediction model includes: The function used to calculate the probability of a failure in the target OPGW optical cable: In the formula, This indicates the probability of a failure in the target OPGW optical cable. Indicates total working time and , Represents state parameters and , Indicates positional parameters and ; The determining module includes: The calculation unit is used to calculate the maximum value of a function representing the probability of failure of the target OPGW optical cable to obtain the safe service life of the target OPGW optical cable. The corresponding calculation formula is as follows: The constraints are: In the formula, This indicates the duration of an experiment under a certain environmental condition. Indicates the acceleration factor. Indicates operating efficiency. This is a preset adjustment function. Indicates the average available time. Indicates the minimum safe service life. Indicates the safe service life.

7. An OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction device based on environmental parameters, characterized in that, include: A memory for storing instructions; wherein the instructions are used to implement the OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction method based on environmental parameters as described in any one of claims 1-5; A processor for executing instructions in the memory.

8. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the OPGW optical cable lifetime prediction method based on environmental parameters as described in any one of claims 1-5.

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