Method and device for determining flood return period, electronic equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The application discloses a flood return period determination method and device, electronic equipment and a storage medium, and belongs to the technical field of hydrological analysis. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring the catchment area of a target hydrological station and the flood elements corresponding to the target hydrological station in all historical years; acquiring the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group corresponding to the target hydrological station; determining the historical flood control and storage indexes of the reservoir group in all historical years based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of the hydrological station, and determining the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the current year; and determining the flood return period based on the historical flood control and storage indexes corresponding to all historical years, the current flood control and storage index and the flood elements corresponding to all historical years. In the method, the influence of the reservoir group regulation and storage on the flood return period in the river basin is fully considered, and the accuracy of the flood return period is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application belongs to the field of hydrological analysis technology, specifically relating to a method, apparatus, electronic device, and storage medium for determining the return period of a flood. Background Technology

[0002] Floods generally refer to the phenomenon of a rapid increase in the volume or a rapid rise in the water level of rivers and lakes caused by natural factors such as heavy rainstorms, melting ice and snow, and storm surges. The flood recurrence interval (CRI) is used to characterize the magnitude of a flood, such as a general flood with a CRI of less than 10 years, or a major flood with a CRI of 20 to 50 years. The accuracy of the CRI is crucial for flood prevention.

[0003] Due to the influence of environmental changes such as reservoir group scheduling, the accuracy of existing methods for determining the return period of floods may be low, which is not conducive to flood prevention. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of this application is to provide a method, apparatus, electronic device, and storage medium for determining the return period of a flood, which can solve the problem that the results of existing methods for determining the return period of a flood under changing environments have low accuracy.

[0005] In a first aspect, embodiments of this application provide a method for determining the recurrence period of a flood, the method comprising:

[0006] The catchment area of ​​the target hydrological station and the flood elements corresponding to the target hydrological station in each of the historical years are obtained. The flood elements include the peak flow or maximum flood volume monitored by the target hydrological station in the corresponding historical year.

[0007] Obtain the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group corresponding to the target hydrological station;

[0008] Based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for each of the historical years is determined, and the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for the current year is determined. The historical flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the corresponding historical years, and the current flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group for the current year.

[0009] Based on the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the flood recurrence period is determined.

[0010] Secondly, embodiments of this application provide a device for determining the recurrence period of a flood, the device comprising:

[0011] The first acquisition module is used to acquire the catchment area of ​​the target hydrological station and the flood elements corresponding to the target hydrological station in each of the historical years. The flood elements include the peak flow or maximum flood volume monitored by the target hydrological station in the corresponding historical year.

[0012] The second acquisition module is used to acquire the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group corresponding to the target hydrological station;

[0013] The first determining module is used to determine the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in each of all historical years based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and to determine the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the current year. The historical flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the corresponding historical years, and the current flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the current year.

[0014] The second determining module is used to determine the flood recurrence period based on the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years.

[0015] Thirdly, embodiments of this application provide an electronic device, which includes a processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores a program or instructions executable on the processor, and the program or instructions, when executed by the processor, implement the steps of the method for determining the flood recurrence period as described in the first aspect.

[0016] Fourthly, embodiments of this application provide a readable storage medium storing a program or instructions that, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the method for determining the flood recurrence period as described in the first aspect.

[0017] In this embodiment, the flood return period is determined based on the historical flood control and storage index, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each historical year monitored by the target hydrological station. The historical and current flood control and storage indices are determined by the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, fully considering the impact of reservoir group regulation on the flood return period in the river basin and improving the accuracy of the flood return period. Attached Figure Description

[0018] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating the method for determining the flood return period provided in this application embodiment;

[0019] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of the flood recurrence period determination device provided in the embodiments of this application;

[0020] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0021] The technical solutions of the embodiments of this application will be clearly described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, of the embodiments of this application. All other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of this application are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0022] The terms "first," "second," etc., used in the specification and claims of this application are used to distinguish similar objects and not to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that such use of data can be interchanged where appropriate so that embodiments of this application can be implemented in orders other than those illustrated or described herein, and the objects distinguished by "first," "second," etc., are generally of the same class and the number of objects is not limited; for example, a first object can be one or more. Furthermore, in the specification and claims, "and / or" indicates at least one of the connected objects, and the character " / " generally indicates that the preceding and following objects are in an "or" relationship.

[0023] The method for determining the flood recurrence period provided in this application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, through specific embodiments and application scenarios.

[0024] like Figure 1 The flowchart illustrating the method for determining the flood recurrence period is shown. The method in this embodiment of the application specifically includes the following steps:

[0025] Step 101: Obtain the catchment area of ​​the target hydrological station and the flood elements corresponding to the target hydrological station in all historical years. The flood elements include the peak flow or maximum flood volume monitored by the target hydrological station in the corresponding historical year.

[0026] For a section of a river's basin, hydrological stations are set up downstream to monitor the river's hydrological and meteorological parameters. Hydrological parameters include water level, flow velocity, flow direction, waves, sediment load, and water quality, while meteorological parameters include precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and wind. Flood parameters can be the river's maximum flow rate in a corresponding historical year; flood parameters can also be the volume of floodwater passing through a specific cross-section of the river during a flood event in a corresponding historical year or within a given time period. A catchment area is a natural watershed or an anthropogenic design or structure that collects water; reservoirs and hydrological stations each have their corresponding catchment areas.

[0027] Step 102: Obtain the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group corresponding to the target hydrological station.

[0028] A reservoir is a hydraulic engineering structure used for flood control, water storage, and water flow regulation. Hydrological stations are typically located downstream of a river, and reservoir groups are often constructed upstream of these stations. Reservoir parameters include the reservoir's catchment area, construction date, normal water level and corresponding capacity, dead water level and corresponding capacity, design flood level and corresponding capacity, check flood level and corresponding capacity, flood control high water level, and flood season limit water level.

[0029] Step 103: Based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, determine the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for each of the historical years, and determine the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for the current year. The historical flood control and storage index indicates the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the corresponding historical years, and the current flood control and storage index indicates the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the current year.

[0030] By using the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the target hydrological station, the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the historical years monitored by the target hydrological station is determined, as well as the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the current year, so as to know the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group on the river at different times.

[0031] Step 104: Determine the flood recurrence period based on the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years.

[0032] The flood recurrence interval is determined based on the historical flood control and storage index, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each historical year monitored by the target hydrological station. The historical and current flood control and storage indices are determined by the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, fully taking into account the impact of reservoir group regulation on the flood recurrence interval in the river basin, thus improving the accuracy of the flood recurrence interval.

[0033] Optionally, the reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area, and construction time;

[0034] In step 103, based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for each of the historical years is determined, including:

[0035] Obtain the occurrence season of flood elements for each of the historical years;

[0036] Based on the occurrence season of flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the flood control capacity of the reservoir group, and the construction time, the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in the reservoir group corresponding to each of the historical years is determined.

[0037] Based on the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in each historical year, the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and the catchment area of ​​the reservoir group, the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in each historical year is determined.

[0038] In this embodiment, the reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area, and construction time. The flood control capacity is the capacity between the flood control high water level and the flood control limit water level. The reservoir parameters are parameters that do not change after the reservoir is completed.

[0039] The occurrence seasons of flood elements refer to the four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter. Generally speaking, the occurrence seasons of flood elements are mainly summer and autumn.

[0040] After determining the occurrence seasons of flood elements for each of the historical years, and combining this with the flood control capacity and construction time of each reservoir in the reservoir group, the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir for each of the historical years can be determined. The effective flood control capacity can be understood as the flood control capacity of the reservoir that has actually functioned. For example, if Reservoir 1 was constructed in 2010, when calculating the effective flood control capacity of Reservoir 1 in 2008, since Reservoir 1 had not yet been constructed, its effective flood control capacity was 0.

[0041] After obtaining the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in all historical years, the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in all historical years is determined by combining the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station and the catchment area of ​​each reservoir.

[0042] In this embodiment, the flood control and storage effects of reservoir groups vary in different seasons and years, thereby improving the accuracy of the historical flood control and storage index.

[0043] Optionally, the flood control capacity includes a first flood control capacity corresponding to the first season and a second flood control capacity corresponding to the second season;

[0044] The determination of the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in the reservoir group for each of the historical years, based on the occurrence season of flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the flood control capacity of the reservoir group, and the construction time, includes:

[0045] When the construction time of the target reservoir is after the target year, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is 0, wherein the target reservoir is any reservoir in the reservoir group, and the target year is any year among all the historical years;

[0046] When the construction time of the target reservoir is before the target year, and the flood element of the target year occurs in the first season, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is the first flood control capacity of the target reservoir.

[0047] When the construction time of the target reservoir is before the target year, and the flood element of the target year occurs in the second season, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is the second flood control capacity of the target reservoir.

[0048] In this embodiment, the first season can be summer, and the second season can be autumn, as flood elements generally occur in summer and autumn. The flood control capacity of the reservoir includes two types: a first flood control capacity, which is the flood control capacity of the reservoir in summer, and a second flood control capacity, which is the flood control capacity of the reservoir in autumn.

[0049] Based on the primary and secondary flood control capacities of the reservoirs, the construction time of the reservoirs, and the season in which flood elements occur, the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in all historical years can be determined as follows:

[0050]

[0051] Among them, FV i , S FV is used to indicate the primary flood control capacity of a reservoir. i , A The second flood control capacity of a reservoir is represented by i = 1, 2, 3, ..., NR, where NR is the number of reservoirs in the reservoir group, i represents the reservoir's serial number, t represents the target year, and TFV. i , t This is used to represent the effective flood control capacity of the i-th reservoir, i.e., the target reservoir, in the target year. The first condition is that the target reservoir was constructed before the target year, and the flood element of the target year occurs in the first season. The second condition is that the target reservoir was constructed before the target year, and the flood element of the target year occurs in the second season. The third condition is that the target reservoir was constructed after the target year.

[0052] In this embodiment, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is determined by combining the construction time of the target reservoir with the occurrence season of flood elements in the target year, thus ensuring the accuracy of the effective flood control capacity.

[0053] Optionally, determining the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for each historical year, based on the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in each historical year, the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and the catchment area of ​​the reservoir group, includes:

[0054] The first data is determined based on the catchment area of ​​the target reservoir and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station;

[0055] The second data is determined based on the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year and the sum of the effective flood control capacities of all reservoirs in the reservoir group in the target year.

[0056] Based on the first data and the second data, the flood control and storage index of the target reservoir in the target year is determined;

[0057] The sum of the flood control and storage indices of all reservoirs in the reservoir group in the target year is determined as the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the target year.

[0058] In this embodiment, the historical flood control and storage index is:

[0059]

[0060] Where t = 1, 2, ..., NY, NY represents the total number of historical years monitored by the target hydrological station, t represents the serial number of the historical year, i = 1, 2, 3, ..., NR, NR represents the number of reservoirs in the reservoir group, and i represents the serial number of the reservoir. A T A is used to represent the catchment area of ​​a target hydrological station. i TFV is used to represent the catchment area of ​​a target reservoir. i , t Used to indicate the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year. This is used to represent the sum of all effective flood control capacities of all reservoirs in the target year.

[0061] Used to represent the first data.

[0062] Used to represent the second data.

[0063] Used to indicate the flood control and storage index of a target reservoir in a target year.

[0064] The sum of the flood control and storage indices of all reservoirs in the reservoir group in the target year is the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the target year.

[0065] Optionally, the reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area and construction time, the flood control capacity includes a first flood control capacity corresponding to the first season and a second flood control capacity corresponding to the second season, and the current flood control and storage index includes a first flood control and storage index and a second flood control and storage index.

[0066] In step 103, based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the current year is determined, including:

[0067] Based on the first flood control capacity of all reservoirs in the reservoir group, the catchment area of ​​the reservoirs, and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, the first flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the first season of the current year is determined.

[0068] Based on the second flood control capacity of all reservoirs in the reservoir group, the catchment area of ​​the reservoirs, and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, the second flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the second season of the current year is determined.

[0069] In this embodiment, the current flood control and storage index includes the first flood control and storage index corresponding to the first season:

[0070]

[0071] Where i = 1, 2, 3..., NR, NR is the number of reservoirs in the reservoir group, and i is used to represent the sequence number of the reservoir. A T A is used to represent the catchment area of ​​a target hydrological station. i FV represents the catchment area of ​​the i-th reservoir in a reservoir group. i , S This is used to represent the first flood control capacity of the i-th reservoir in the reservoir group during the first season. It is used to represent the sum of the first flood control capacity of all reservoirs in a reservoir group.

[0072] The current flood control and storage index also includes the second flood control and storage index corresponding to the second season:

[0073]

[0074] Where i = 1, 2, 3..., NR, NR is the number of reservoirs in the reservoir group, and i is used to represent the sequence number of the reservoir. A T A is used to represent the catchment area of ​​a target hydrological station. i FV represents the catchment area of ​​the i-th reservoir in a reservoir group.i , A This is used to represent the second flood control capacity of the i-th reservoir in the reservoir group during the second season. It is used to represent the sum of the second flood control capacity of all reservoirs in a reservoir group.

[0075] Using the above methods, we can determine the different flood control and water storage effects of the reservoir group in the first and second seasons of the current year.

[0076] Optionally, step 104, based on the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, determines the flood return period, including:

[0077] Based on the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the historical flood control and storage indices corresponding to each of the historical years, and the maximum likelihood method, the density function of the flood elements is determined.

[0078] The occurrence time of each flood element in the first season and the occurrence time in the second season are statistically analyzed for each of the historical years.

[0079] Based on the density function of the flood elements and the first flood control and storage index, the first distribution function is determined;

[0080] Based on the density function of the flood elements and the second flood control and storage index, the second distribution function is determined;

[0081] The flood recurrence period is determined based on the first distribution function, the second distribution function, the first frequency, and the second frequency.

[0082] In this embodiment, the process of determining the density function of flood elements is as follows:

[0083] A function model of flood elements is constructed, and the parameters in the function are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The density function is:

[0084]

[0085] Among them, g(Q) t μ(t), σ(t), ∈(t)) are used to represent Q t Q is the density function of a nonstationary probability distribution with parameters μ(t), σ(t), and ∈(t). t This is used to represent the flood elements corresponding to each historical year. The type of non-stationary probability distribution can be the generalized extreme value distribution, Pearson III distribution, etc. μ(t) is the location parameter, σ(t) is the scale parameter, and ∈(t) is the shape parameter. μ(t) = exp(a + b × MRI) t), σ(t)=exp(c+d×MRI t ), ∈(t)=e, where a, b, c, d, e are parameters to be determined in the density function.

[0086] By using the maximum likelihood estimation method to find the maximum value of D = ln{L(μ(t), σ(t), ∈(t))}, the maximum likelihood estimates of a, b, c, d, and e can be obtained. Once a, b, c, d, and e are determined, the density function g(Q) of the flood element is determined. t ;μ(t), σ(t), ∈(t)).

[0087] Furthermore, based on the density function of the flood elements and the first flood control and storage index, the first distribution function is determined: in CMRI S It is the first flood control and storage index.

[0088] Based on the density function of the flood elements and the second flood control and storage index, the second distribution function is determined: in CMRI A This is the second flood control and storage index.

[0089] Finally, determine the flood recurrence interval:

[0090]

[0091] Wherein, NS represents the first occurrence time of the flood element in the first season for each historical year, and NA represents the second occurrence time of the flood element in the second season for each historical year. For example, in 10 historical years, the flood element occurred in the first season for 4 years and in the second season for 6 years, so NS is 4 and NA is 6.

[0092] By employing the above methods, the impact of the flood regulation and storage capacity of reservoir groups on the flood recurrence period under different seasons is fully considered, thereby improving the accuracy of the flood recurrence period.

[0093] like Figure 2 As shown in the illustration, this application embodiment also provides a flood recurrence interval determination device 200, which includes:

[0094] The first acquisition module 201 is used to acquire the catchment area of ​​the target hydrological station and the flood elements corresponding to the target hydrological station in each of the historical years. The flood elements include the peak flow or maximum flood volume monitored by the target hydrological station in the corresponding historical year.

[0095] The second acquisition module 202 is used to acquire the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group corresponding to the target hydrological station;

[0096] The first determining module 203 is used to determine the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in each of all historical years based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and to determine the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the current year. The historical flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the corresponding historical years, and the current flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the current year.

[0097] The second determining module 204 is used to determine the flood recurrence period based on the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years.

[0098] Optionally, the reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area, and construction time;

[0099] The first determining module 203 includes:

[0100] The first acquisition submodule is used to acquire the occurrence season of flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years;

[0101] The first determining submodule is used to determine the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in the reservoir group in each of the historical years based on the occurrence season of the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the flood control capacity of the reservoir group, and the construction time.

[0102] The second determining submodule is used to determine the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in each of the historical years based on the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in each of the historical years, the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and the catchment area of ​​the reservoir group.

[0103] Optionally, the flood control capacity includes a first flood control capacity corresponding to the first season and a second flood control capacity corresponding to the second season;

[0104] The first determining submodule is also used for:

[0105] When the construction time of the target reservoir is after the target year, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is determined to be 0. Here, the target reservoir is any reservoir in the reservoir group, and the target year is any year among all the historical years.

[0106] When the construction time of the target reservoir is before the target year, and the flood element of the target year occurs in the first season, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is determined as the first flood control capacity of the target reservoir.

[0107] If the target reservoir was constructed before the target year, and the flood element of the target year occurs in the second season, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is determined as the second flood control capacity of the target reservoir.

[0108] Optionally, the second determining submodule further includes:

[0109] The first determining unit is used to determine first data based on the catchment area of ​​the target reservoir and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station;

[0110] The second determining unit is used to determine the second data based on the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year and the sum of the effective flood control capacities of all reservoirs in the reservoir group in the target year.

[0111] The third determining unit is used to determine the flood control and storage index of the target reservoir in the target year based on the first data and the second data.

[0112] The fourth determining unit is used to determine the sum of the flood control and storage indices of all reservoirs in the reservoir group in the target year as the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the target year.

[0113] Optionally, the reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area and construction time, the flood control capacity includes a first flood control capacity corresponding to the first season and a second flood control capacity corresponding to the second season, and the current flood control and storage index includes a first flood control and storage index and a second flood control and storage index.

[0114] The first determining module 203 further includes:

[0115] The third determining submodule is used to determine the first flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the first season of the current year based on the first flood control capacity of all reservoirs in the reservoir group, the catchment area of ​​the reservoirs, and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station.

[0116] The fourth determination submodule is used to determine the second flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the second season of the current year based on the second flood control capacity of all reservoirs in the reservoir group, the catchment area of ​​the reservoirs, and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station.

[0117] Optionally, the second determining module 204 includes:

[0118] The fifth determination submodule is used to determine the density function of the flood elements based on the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, and the maximum likelihood method.

[0119] The statistics submodule is used to count the occurrence time of each flood element in the first season and the occurrence time in the second season for each of the historical years.

[0120] The sixth determining submodule is used to determine the first distribution function based on the density function of the flood elements and the first flood control and storage index;

[0121] The seventh determining submodule is used to determine the second distribution function based on the density function of the flood elements and the second flood control and storage index;

[0122] The eighth determining submodule is used to determine the flood recurrence period based on the first distribution function, the second distribution function, the first number, and the second number.

[0123] It should be noted that the flood recurrence period determination device 200 provided in this application embodiment can achieve the following: Figure 1 The entire technical process of the method for determining the flood recurrence period shown in the embodiment, and achieving the same technical effect, will not be repeated here to avoid repetition.

[0124] Optionally, such as Figure 3 As shown, this application embodiment also provides an electronic device 300, including a processor 301 and a memory 302. The memory 302 stores a program or instructions that can run on the processor 301. When the program or instructions are executed by the processor 301, they implement the various steps of the above method embodiments and can achieve the same technical effect. To avoid repetition, they will not be described again here.

[0125] It should be noted that the electronic devices in the embodiments of this application include the mobile electronic devices and non-mobile electronic devices described above.

[0126] This application also provides a readable storage medium storing a program or instructions. When the program or instructions are executed by a processor, they implement the various processes of the above method embodiments and achieve the same technical effect. To avoid repetition, they will not be described again here.

[0127] The processor is the processor in the electronic device described in the above embodiments. The readable storage medium includes computer-readable storage media, such as computer read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disk, or optical disk.

[0128] It should be noted that, in this document, the terms "comprising," "including," or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent to such a process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitations, an element defined by the phrase "comprising one..." does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article, or apparatus that includes that element. Furthermore, it should be noted that the scope of the methods and apparatuses in the embodiments of this application is not limited to performing functions in the order shown or discussed, but may also include performing functions substantially simultaneously or in the reverse order, depending on the functions involved. For example, the described methods may be performed in a different order than described, and various steps may be added, omitted, or combined. Additionally, features described with reference to certain examples may be combined in other examples.

[0129] Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the methods of the above embodiments can be implemented by means of software plus necessary general-purpose hardware platforms. Of course, they can also be implemented by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of this application, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a computer software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium (such as ROM / RAM, magnetic disk, optical disk) and includes several instructions to cause a terminal (which may be a mobile phone, computer, server, air conditioner, or network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in the various embodiments of this application.

[0130] The above are merely specific embodiments of this application, but the scope of protection of this application is not limited thereto. Any variations or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the scope of the technology disclosed in this application should be included within the scope of protection of this application. Therefore, the scope of protection of this application should be determined by the scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for determining the return period of a flood, characterized in that, The method includes: Obtain the catchment area of ​​the target hydrological station and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years monitored by the target hydrological station. The flood elements include the peak flow or maximum flood volume monitored by the target hydrological station in the corresponding historical years. Obtain the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group corresponding to the target hydrological station; Based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for each of the historical years is determined, and the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for the current year is determined. The historical flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the corresponding historical years, and the current flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group for the current year. Based on the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the flood recurrence period is determined; The reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area, and construction time. The determination of the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group for each of all historical years, based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, includes: Obtain the occurrence season of flood elements for each of the historical years; Based on the occurrence season of flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the flood control capacity of the reservoir group, and the construction time, the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in the reservoir group corresponding to each of the historical years is determined. Based on the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in each of the historical years, the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and the catchment area of ​​the reservoir group, the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in each of the historical years is determined. Alternatively, the reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area, and construction time; the flood control capacity includes a first flood control capacity corresponding to the first season and a second flood control capacity corresponding to the second season; and the current flood control and storage index includes a first flood control and storage index and a second flood control and storage index. The determination of the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the current year, based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, includes: Based on the first flood control capacity of all reservoirs in the reservoir group, the catchment area of ​​the reservoirs, and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, the first flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the first season of the current year is determined. Based on the second flood control capacity of all reservoirs in the reservoir group, the catchment area of ​​the reservoirs, and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, the second flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the second season of the current year is determined. The determination of the flood recurrence period based on the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years includes: Based on the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the historical flood control and storage indices corresponding to each of the historical years, and the maximum likelihood method, the density function of the flood elements is determined. The occurrence time of each flood element in the first season and the occurrence time in the second season are statistically analyzed for each of the historical years. Based on the density function of the flood elements and the first flood control and storage index, the first distribution function is determined; Based on the density function of the flood elements and the second flood control and storage index, the second distribution function is determined; The flood recurrence period is determined based on the first distribution function, the second distribution function, the first frequency, and the second frequency.

2. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The flood control capacity includes the first flood control capacity corresponding to the first season and the second flood control capacity corresponding to the second season; The determination of the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in the reservoir group for each of the historical years, based on the occurrence season of flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the flood control capacity of the reservoir group, and the construction time, includes: When the construction time of the target reservoir is after the target year, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is 0, wherein the target reservoir is any reservoir in the reservoir group, and the target year is any year among all the historical years; When the construction time of the target reservoir is before the target year, and the flood element of the target year occurs in the first season, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is the first flood control capacity of the target reservoir. When the construction time of the target reservoir is before the target year, and the flood element of the target year occurs in the second season, the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year is the second flood control capacity of the target reservoir.

3. The method as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The determination of the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in each historical year, based on the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in each historical year, the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and the catchment area of ​​the reservoir group, includes: The first data is determined based on the catchment area of ​​the target reservoir and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station; The second data is determined based on the effective flood control capacity of the target reservoir in the target year and the sum of the effective flood control capacities of all reservoirs in the reservoir group in the target year. Based on the first data and the second data, the flood control and storage index of the target reservoir in the target year is determined; The sum of the flood control and storage indices of all reservoirs in the reservoir group in the target year is determined as the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the target year.

4. A device for determining the recurrence period of a flood, characterized in that, The device includes: The first acquisition module is used to acquire the catchment area of ​​the target hydrological station and the flood elements corresponding to the target hydrological station in each of the historical years. The flood elements include the peak flow or maximum flood volume monitored by the target hydrological station in the corresponding historical year. The second acquisition module is used to acquire the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group corresponding to the target hydrological station; The first determining module is used to determine the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in each of all historical years based on the reservoir parameters of the reservoir group and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and to determine the current flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the current year. The historical flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the corresponding historical years, and the current flood control and storage index is used to indicate the flood control and storage effect of the reservoir group in the current year. The second determining module is used to determine the flood recurrence period based on the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, the current flood control and storage index, and the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years. The reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area, and construction time. The first determining module includes: The first acquisition submodule is used to acquire the occurrence season of flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years; The first determining submodule is used to determine the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in the reservoir group in each of the historical years based on the occurrence season of the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the flood control capacity of the reservoir group, and the construction time. The second determining submodule is used to determine the historical flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in each of the historical years based on the effective flood control capacity of each reservoir in each of the historical years, the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station, and the catchment area of ​​the reservoir group. Alternatively, the reservoir parameters include flood control capacity, reservoir catchment area, and construction time; the flood control capacity includes a first flood control capacity corresponding to the first season and a second flood control capacity corresponding to the second season; and the current flood control and storage index includes a first flood control and storage index and a second flood control and storage index. The first determining module further includes: The third determining submodule is used to determine the first flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the first season of the current year based on the first flood control capacity of all reservoirs in the reservoir group, the catchment area of ​​the reservoirs, and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station. The fourth determining submodule is used to determine the second flood control and storage index of the reservoir group in the second season of the current year based on the second flood control capacity of all reservoirs in the reservoir group, the catchment area of ​​the reservoirs, and the catchment area of ​​the hydrological station. The second determining module includes: The fifth determination submodule is used to determine the density function of the flood elements based on the flood elements corresponding to each of the historical years, the historical flood control and storage index corresponding to each of the historical years, and the maximum likelihood method. The statistics submodule is used to count the occurrence time of each flood element in the first season and the occurrence time in the second season for each of the historical years. The sixth determining submodule is used to determine the first distribution function based on the density function of the flood elements and the first flood control and storage index; The seventh determining submodule is used to determine the second distribution function based on the density function of the flood elements and the second flood control and storage index; The eighth determining submodule is used to determine the flood recurrence period based on the first distribution function, the second distribution function, the first number, and the second number.

5. An electronic device, characterized in that, The electronic device includes a processor and a memory, the memory storing a program or instructions executable on the processor, the program or instructions being executed by the processor to implement the steps of the method for determining the flood recurrence period as described in any one of claims 1 to 3.

6. A readable storage medium, characterized in that, The readable storage medium stores a program or instructions that, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the method for determining the flood recurrence period as described in any one of claims 1 to 3.

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