A method and system for predicting land demand scale of bus stations

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and system for predicting the scale of land demand for bus stations. The scale of urban public buses is obtained according to the passenger volume of urban public buses and the average daily passenger volume of a single vehicle; the total demand for the station area of ​​the bus station is obtained according to the scale of urban public buses and the average station area index per bus vehicle; a preliminary layout plan for the bus station is proposed, and the bus station is classified according to the land use form and the construction form; the station area of ​​bus stations with different construction forms is obtained according to the classified bus stations, and then the total supply of the station area of ​​the bus station is obtained; a relationship model between the station area and the land area of ​​the bus station is established according to the relationship between the total demand for the station area of ​​the bus station and the total supply of the station area, and the land area of ​​bus stations with different construction forms is obtained, and then the total land area of ​​the urban bus station is obtained. The present invention can realize the accurate measurement of the station area and land demand of the bus station, and is simple and practical, and has strong operability and effectiveness.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of urban traffic planning, and in particular to a method and system for calculating the scale of land demand for a public transportation station. Background Art

[0002] The bus station is one of the basic facilities of the urban public transportation system. It is the place where buses park, depart, repair and maintain. It plays an important role in serving the gathering and distribution of passengers and ensuring the normal operation and turnover of bus routes. Reasonable setting of bus stations and scientific determination of the station area and land scale of bus stations are of great significance to the healthy development of the public transportation system.

[0003] The shortage of bus stations seriously affects the normal operation of the public transportation system. The shortage of bus stations is mainly due to the difficulty in implementing the land use for bus stations. There are two main reasons for the difficulty in implementing the land use for bus stations: on the one hand, the existing bus stations are generally built independently and occupy a large area, and most urban bus stations adopt a flat construction form, which has a low efficiency of intensive land use and belongs to inefficient land use. In the stage of increasingly tight urban land resource constraints and transformation to secondary development, the construction of independent flat bus stations will cause a waste of precious urban land resources, and because of its public welfare, it will not produce direct economic benefits. This is an important reason why the planning of bus stations is difficult to implement. On the other hand, bus station planning itself also has an unshirkable responsibility. The demand forecast of bus stations is the premise and basis for calculating the reasonable scale of bus stations. It is related to funds, land, policies and other guarantees, and is extremely important. However, the scale forecast of bus stations in the current bus station planning has not been sorted out clearly, and the scale forecast method is not scientific and cannot effectively guide practice. "Urban Road Public Transport Station, Yard and Factory Engineering Design Specification" (CJJ / T 15-2011) is currently the most important basis for the planning and construction of bus stations. However, this specification does not distinguish between the two concepts of bus station area and bus station land area, nor does it consider the construction form of bus stations, such as flat construction or three-dimensional construction. Therefore, planners often predict the scale of bus stations in a relatively general way based on indicator requirements, and are unable to clearly explain the station area and land area required for bus stations in the city.

[0004] In recent years, as urban land has become increasingly scarce, it is required to improve the efficiency of stock land use and encourage the comprehensive development of new land. The three-dimensional construction and supporting construction of bus stations have become a trend. In addition, the "Urban Public Bus and Tram Station Configuration Specification" (JT / T 1202-2018) also proposes to build bus terminals, hubs and other bus stations in conjunction with large places such as transportation hubs, large residential areas, commercial centers, industrial concentration areas, tourist attractions, schools, hospitals and large public activity venues. If the supporting bus stations adopt the form of top-cover construction, they can provide a certain bus station area without requiring land. In general, some current practical explorations and relevant standards and specifications only make some provisions for the three-dimensional construction and supporting construction of a single bus station, and have not conducted in-depth research on the station area, land area and the relationship between the two for bus stations with different construction forms. It cannot guide the demand forecast of bus stations in bus station planning, and cannot accurately calculate the scientific and reasonable station area and land area of ​​bus stations.

[0005] After long-term research, the inventors have found that if a method and system for predicting the scale of land demand for bus stations can be established, a reasonable layout of bus stations can be carried out according to the predicted station area demand of bus stations, and the supply and demand balance of bus station area can be achieved. According to the land use form and construction form of the bus station, the relationship between the station area and the land area of ​​the bus station can be established. In this way, the station area and land area of ​​the bus station can be accurately calculated, which can not only make the station area of ​​the bus station meet the parking and operation needs of buses, but also determine a reasonable land area of ​​the bus station, which is more conducive to the land use planning control and implementation of bus stations and is more operational. Summary of the invention

[0006] The purpose of the invention is to provide a method and system for predicting the scale of land demand for bus stations, so as to solve the problem that the station area and land area of ​​bus stations cannot be accurately calculated when predicting the scale of bus stations in the prior art.

[0007] Technical solution: To achieve the above purpose, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0008] A method for predicting the scale of land demand for bus stations comprises the following steps:

[0009] Step 1: According to the urban bus passenger volume and the average daily passenger capacity of a single vehicle, the scale of urban public transportation vehicles is obtained.

[0010] Step 2: According to the scale of urban public buses and the average bus terminal area per bus, the total demand for bus terminal area is obtained.

[0011] Step 3: Propose a preliminary layout plan for bus stations and classify bus stations according to land use and construction form.

[0012] Step 4: According to the classified bus stations, the station areas of bus stations with different construction forms are obtained, and then the total supply of bus station areas is obtained.

[0013] Step 5: Establish the relationship between the total demand and supply of bus station area.

[0014] Step 6: Establish a relationship model between the bus station area and the land area based on the relationship between the total demand and total supply of bus station area, obtain the land area of ​​bus stations with different construction forms, and then obtain the total land area of ​​urban bus stations.

[0015] Preferably, the relationship model between the bus station area and the land area in step 6 is:

[0016] ;

[0017] condition:

[0018]

[0019] in, is the total land area of ​​the bus station, For the The terminal area of ​​each terminal and hub station, For the The parking area of ​​the maintenance yard is For the The average number of floors of terminal and hub stations, For the The average number of floors in a parking maintenance yard, The number of first and last stations and hub stations required by the city. , is the number of flat terminal stations and hub stations, is the number of three-dimensional terminal stations and hub stations. To build a number of separated terminal stations and hub stations, To build the number of overhead terminal stations and hub stations, The number of parking lots required for the city, , is the number of flat parking and maintenance lots, is the number of three-dimensional parking maintenance lots, is the total area demand of bus stations, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, is the daily effective operating vehicle ratio, is the proportion of buses parked at terminal stations and hub stations at night. It is the proportion of parking area in the terminal and hub station to the total area. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the terminal and hub stations to the total area. To standardize the average area of ​​the terminal and hub stations required for public transportation vehicles. It is the terminal and hub station. is the proportion of buses parked in parking lots at night, is the ratio of parking lot area to total area in the parking maintenance yard. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the parking maintenance yard to the total area. For parking maintenance area, It is the total supply of bus station area.

[0020] Preferably: the scale of urban public transport vehicles in step 1 is:

[0021] ;

[0022] in, is the size of urban public transport vehicles, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, It is the proportion of vehicles in effective operation every day.

[0023] Preferably: the method of step 2 comprises the following steps:

[0024] Step 2.1, refer to the regulatory requirements and actual conditions to obtain the types of bus stations, which include terminal stations, hub stations, parking and maintenance yards, and intermediate stations.

[0025] Step 2.2, according to the city bus scale and the average terminal area index of the required terminal and hub stations for buses in accordance with the regulatory requirements, the required terminal area of ​​the terminal and hub stations is obtained.

[0026] Step 2.3, according to the scale of urban public buses and the average parking area index of public buses required by the regulations, the required parking area of ​​the parking lot is obtained.

[0027] Step 2.4, according to the required station area of ​​the terminal and hub stations and the required station area of ​​the parking and maintenance yard, the total station area demand of the bus station is obtained:

[0028] ;

[0029] in, is the total area demand of bus stations, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, is the daily effective operating vehicle ratio, is the proportion of buses parked at terminal stations and hub stations at night. It is the proportion of parking area in the terminal and hub station to the total area. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the terminal and hub stations to the total area. is the size of urban public transport vehicles, To standardize the average area of ​​the terminal and hub stations required for public transportation vehicles. It is the terminal and hub station. is the proportion of buses parked in parking lots at night, is the ratio of parking lot area to total area in the parking maintenance yard. It is the proportion of other places and facilities in the parking maintenance lot to the total area.

[0030] Preferably: the method of step 3 comprises the following steps:

[0031] Step 3.1, according to the required terminal area of ​​the city's terminal and hub stations and the terminal area of ​​a single terminal and hub station, the required number of terminals and hub stations is obtained.

[0032] The number of first and last stations and hub stations required is:

[0033] ;

[0034] in, The number of first and last stations and hub stations required by the city. It refers to the station area of ​​a single terminal or hub station.

[0035] Step 3.2, according to the required parking and maintenance yard area of ​​the city parking and maintenance yard and the yard area of ​​a single parking and maintenance yard, the number of required parking and maintenance yards is obtained.

[0036] The number of parking lots required is:

[0037] ;

[0038] in, The number of parking lots required for the city, It refers to the site area of ​​a single parking and maintenance yard.

[0039] Step 3.3, based on the current distribution of urban terminals and hubs, the layout of bus stations proposed in the national land space planning, and the passenger flow demand analysis, a preliminary layout plan for terminal and hub planning is proposed. The preliminary layout plan includes the number of terminal and hubs to be laid out, the area of ​​each terminal and hub, the construction form of each terminal and hub, and the preliminary layout. The first and last stations and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0040] Step 3.4, based on the current distribution of parking and maintenance yards in the city, the preliminary layout plan of the terminal and hub stations, propose a preliminary layout plan for the parking and maintenance yards. The preliminary layout plan includes the number of parking and maintenance yards to be laid out, the area of ​​each parking and maintenance yard, the construction form of each parking and maintenance yard, and the preliminary layout plan. There are parking lots, namely , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0041] Step 3.5, bus stations are divided into independent bus stations and non-independent bus stations according to the land use form. Independent bus stations refer to the construction of only bus stations on the land without other buildings. Non-independent bus stations refer to the construction of other buildings on the land in addition to bus stations. Non-independent bus stations include comprehensive development bus stations and supporting construction bus stations.

[0042] Step 3.6, independent bus stations are divided into flat bus stations and three-dimensional bus stations according to the construction form. Flat bus stations refer to the bus station's parking lot, office buildings, and facilities are arranged horizontally on the same plane, and three-dimensional bus stations refer to the bus station's parking lot, office buildings, and facilities are arranged vertically on different planes, and are built in multiple floors. Non-independent bus stations are divided into separated bus stations and covered bus stations according to the construction form. Separated bus stations refer to the bus station and other buildings in the plot are separated in space, and covered bus stations refer to the bus station and other buildings in the plot are arranged vertically as a whole, and the bus station is on the ground floor of the plot.

[0043] Preferably: the method of step 4 comprises the following steps:

[0044] Step 4.1: The terminal and hub are independent bus stations or non-independent bus stations. The land use and construction forms are comprehensive. The terminal and hub are built as flat terminal and hub, or three-dimensional terminal and hub, or separated terminal and hub, or covered terminal and hub. The number of terminal and hub in the four construction forms is respectively , , , . Flat terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, The three-dimensional terminal and hub station are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, . Separate terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, The covered terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0045] Step 4.2: Parking and maintenance yards are constructed independently and are divided into two types according to the construction form: flat bus stations and three-dimensional bus stations. The number of flat parking and maintenance yards and three-dimensional parking and maintenance yards is , The flat parking lot is , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, . The three-dimensional parking lot is , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0046] Step 4.3: Calculate the total supply of bus station area according to the following formula:

[0047] ;

[0048] in, is the total area supply of bus stations, , is the number of flat terminal stations and hub stations, is the number of three-dimensional terminal stations and hub stations. To build a number of separated terminal stations and hub stations, To build the number of overhead terminal stations and hub stations, For the The terminal area of ​​each terminal and hub station, , is the number of flat parking and maintenance lots, is the number of three-dimensional parking maintenance lots, For the The site area of ​​a parking maintenance yard.

[0049] Preferably, the method of step 6 comprises the following steps:

[0050] Step 6.1, obtain the land area of ​​the flat bus station based on the station area and number of flat terminal stations and hub stations, as well as the station area and number of flat parking and maintenance yards.

[0051] Step 6.2, the land area of ​​the three-dimensional bus station is obtained based on the station area and average number of floors of the three-dimensional terminal station and hub station, and the station area and average number of floors of the three-dimensional parking and maintenance yard.

[0052] Step 6.3, obtain the land area of ​​the separated bus station based on the station area and average number of floors of the separated terminal and hub station.

[0053] Step 6.4, according to the land area of ​​the flat bus station, the land area of ​​the three-dimensional bus station and the land area of ​​the separated bus station, the total land area of ​​the bus station is obtained:

[0054] ;

[0055] in, It is the total land area of ​​the bus station.

[0056] Preferably: the method of step 5 comprises the following steps:

[0057] Step 5.1: If the total area supply of bus stations is Total site area requirement The initial layout of terminal stations, hub stations, and parking and maintenance yards will meet the demand.

[0058] Step 5.2: If the total area supply of bus stations is Total site area requirement If the initial layout of the terminal, hub station, and parking maintenance yard area does not meet the demand, repeat steps 3 and 4 until .

[0059] A bus station land demand scale prediction system includes an input unit, an urban bus vehicle scale unit, a bus station area total demand unit, a classification unit, a bus station area total supply unit, a total demand and total supply relationship unit, and a station area land area relationship unit, wherein:

[0060] The input unit is used to input the total daily travel volume of urban residents, the travel share of public buses and trams, the bus transfer coefficient, the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, and the daily effective operating vehicle ratio.

[0061] The urban public transport vehicle scale unit is used to obtain the urban public transport vehicle scale according to the total daily travel volume of urban residents, the travel share of public buses and trams, the bus transfer coefficient, the average daily passenger capacity of each standard public transport vehicle, and the daily effective operating vehicle ratio.

[0062] The bus station area total demand unit is used to obtain the bus station area total demand according to the scale of urban public buses and the average bus station area index.

[0063] The classification unit is used to propose a preliminary layout plan for bus stations and classify bus stations according to the nature of land use and construction form.

[0064] The bus station area total supply unit is used to obtain the station areas of bus stations with different construction forms according to the classified bus stations, and then obtain the total supply of bus station areas.

[0065] The total demand-to-supply relationship unit is used to establish the relationship between the total demand for bus station area and the total supply of bus station area.

[0066] The station area and land area relationship unit is used to establish a relationship model between the station area and the land area of ​​a bus station according to the relationship between the total station area demand and the total station area supply of the bus station, to obtain the land area of ​​bus stations of different construction forms, and then to obtain the total land area of ​​urban bus stations.

[0067] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0068] The existing relevant standards and specifications do not distinguish between the two concepts of bus station area and bus station land area, and the existing technical methods cannot clearly predict the required bus station area and land area. Traditional bus stations are generally plane-type buildings with independent land, and there is a relatively simple correspondence between the station area and the land area. The defects of the existing specifications and technical methods are not prominent. With the three-dimensional comprehensive development of bus stations, combined with the increasing popularity of various construction forms such as large residential communities and public buildings, the correspondence between the station area that can be provided and the required land area is more complicated. This technical method classifies bus stations according to land use form and construction form, and establishes a relationship model between the station area and land area of ​​different types of bus stations, which can accurately calculate the station area and land area, not only to make the station area meet the use needs, but also to make the land area pre-control more reasonable and scientific. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0069] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for calculating the land demand scale of a bus station provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0070] Figure 2 A planning layout diagram of a bus station in a certain city provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0071] The present invention is further explained below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that these examples are only used to illustrate the present invention and are not used to limit the scope of the present invention. After reading the present invention, various equivalent forms of modifications to the present invention by those skilled in the art all fall within the scope defined by the claims attached to this application.

[0072] Example

[0073] A method for predicting the scale of land demand for bus stations, such as Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0074] Step 1: According to the urban bus passenger volume and the average daily passenger capacity of a single vehicle, the scale of urban public transportation vehicles is obtained.

[0075] Step 2: According to the scale of urban public buses and the average bus terminal area per bus, the total demand for bus terminal area is obtained.

[0076] Step 3: Propose a preliminary layout plan for bus stations and classify bus stations according to land use and construction form.

[0077] Step 4: According to the classified bus stations, the station areas of bus stations with different construction forms are obtained, and then the total supply of bus station areas is obtained.

[0078] Step 5: Establish the relationship between the total demand and supply of bus station area.

[0079] Step 6: Establish a relationship model between the bus station area and the land area based on the relationship between the total demand and total supply of bus station area, obtain the land area of ​​bus stations with different construction forms, and then obtain the total land area of ​​urban bus stations.

[0080] In another embodiment, the relationship model between the bus station area and the land area is:

[0081] ;

[0082] condition:

[0083]

[0084] in, is the total land area of ​​the bus station, For the The terminal area of ​​each terminal and hub station, For the The parking area of ​​the maintenance yard is For the The average number of floors of terminal and hub stations, For the The average number of floors in a parking maintenance yard, The number of first and last stations and hub stations required by the city. , is the number of flat terminal stations and hub stations, is the number of three-dimensional terminal stations and hub stations. To build a number of separated terminal stations and hub stations, To build the number of overhead terminal stations and hub stations, The number of parking lots required for the city, , is the number of flat parking and maintenance lots, is the number of three-dimensional parking maintenance lots, is the total area demand of bus stations, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, is the daily effective operating vehicle ratio, is the proportion of buses parked at terminal stations and hub stations at night. It is the proportion of parking area in the terminal and hub station to the total area. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the terminal and hub stations to the total area. To standardize the average area of ​​the terminal and hub stations required for public transportation vehicles. It is the terminal and hub station. is the proportion of buses parked in parking lots at night, is the ratio of parking lot area to total area in the parking maintenance yard. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the parking maintenance yard to the total area. For parking maintenance area, It is the total supply of bus station area.

[0085] In another embodiment, in step 1, the scale of urban public transport vehicles is calculated using the following formula according to the urban public transport passenger volume and the average daily passenger volume of a single vehicle. The scale of urban public transport vehicles is:

[0086] ;

[0087] in, is the size of urban public transport vehicles, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, It is the proportion of vehicles in effective operation every day.

[0088] In another embodiment, in step 2, the required bus terminal, hub station, and parking maintenance yard station area are calculated based on the scale of urban public buses and the average station area index per bus, and the total station area demand of the bus station is calculated, and the method includes the following steps:

[0089] Step 2.1, refer to the specification requirements and actual conditions to obtain the bus station type, which mainly includes terminal stations, hub stations, parking and maintenance yards, and intermediate stations. Intermediate stations are combined with road construction and do not involve land use issues, so they are not considered in the present invention. Terminal stations and hub stations are similar and are considered in the same category.

[0090] Step 2.2, according to the scale of urban public buses and the average terminal area index of the required terminal and hub stations for public buses in accordance with the regulations, the required terminal area of ​​the terminal and hub stations is obtained:

[0091] ;

[0092] in, The required station area for the city’s terminal and hub stations. is the size of urban public transport vehicles, It is an indicator of the average terminal area per vehicle for the terminal and hub stations required by the regulations for public buses.

[0093] Step 2.3, according to the scale of urban public buses and the average parking area index of public buses required by the regulations, the required parking area of ​​the parking lot is obtained:

[0094] ;

[0095] in, The required area of ​​the urban parking lot is is the size of urban public transport vehicles, It is an indicator of the average parking area per vehicle in the parking and maintenance yards required for public buses in accordance with regulatory requirements.

[0096] Step 2.4, according to the required station area of ​​the terminal and hub stations and the required station area of ​​the parking and maintenance yard, the total station area demand of the bus station is obtained:

[0097] ;

[0098] and then:

[0099] ;

[0100] in, is the total area demand of bus stations, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, is the daily effective operating vehicle ratio, is the proportion of buses parked at terminal stations and hub stations at night. It is the proportion of parking area in the terminal and hub station to the total area. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the terminal and hub stations to the total area. is the size of urban public transport vehicles, To standardize the average area of ​​the terminal and hub stations required for public transportation vehicles. It is the first and last station and hub station. is the proportion of buses parked in parking lots at night, is the ratio of parking lot area to total area in the parking maintenance yard. It is the proportion of other places and facilities in the parking maintenance lot to the total area.

[0101] In another embodiment, in step 3, a preliminary layout plan of bus stations is proposed, and bus stations are classified according to the nature of land use and construction form. The method includes the following steps:

[0102] Step 3.1, according to the required terminal area of ​​the city's terminal and hub stations and the terminal area of ​​a single terminal and hub station, the required number of terminals and hub stations is obtained.

[0103] The number of first and last stations and hub stations required is:

[0104] ;

[0105] in, The number of first and last stations and hub stations required by the city. It refers to the station area of ​​a single terminal or hub station.

[0106] Step 3.2, according to the required parking and maintenance yard area of ​​the city parking and maintenance yard and the yard area of ​​a single parking and maintenance yard, the number of required parking and maintenance yards is obtained.

[0107] The number of parking lots required is:

[0108] ;

[0109] in, The number of parking lots required for the city, It refers to the site area of ​​a single parking and maintenance yard.

[0110] Step 3.3, based on the current distribution of urban terminals and hubs, the layout of bus stations proposed in the national land space planning, and the passenger flow demand analysis, a preliminary layout plan for terminal and hub planning is proposed. The preliminary layout plan includes the number of terminal and hubs to be laid out, the area of ​​each terminal and hub, the construction form of each terminal and hub, and the preliminary layout. The first and last stations and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0111] Step 3.4, based on the current distribution of parking and maintenance yards in the city, the preliminary layout plan of the terminal and hub stations, propose a preliminary layout plan for the parking and maintenance yards. The preliminary layout plan includes the number of parking and maintenance yards to be laid out, the area of ​​each parking and maintenance yard, the construction form of each parking and maintenance yard, and the preliminary layout plan. There are parking lots, namely , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0112] Step 3.5, bus stations are divided into independent bus stations and non-independent bus stations according to the land use form. Independent bus stations refer to the construction of only bus stations on the land without other buildings. Non-independent bus stations refer to the construction of other buildings on the land in addition to bus stations. Non-independent bus stations include comprehensive development bus stations and supporting construction bus stations.

[0113] Step 3.6, independent bus stations are divided into flat bus stations and three-dimensional bus stations according to the construction form. Flat bus stations refer to the bus station's parking lot, office buildings, and facilities are arranged horizontally on the same plane, and three-dimensional bus stations refer to the bus station's parking lot, office buildings, and facilities are arranged vertically on different planes, and are built in multiple floors. Non-independent bus stations are divided into separated bus stations and covered bus stations according to the construction form. Separated bus stations refer to the bus station and other buildings in the plot are separated in space, and covered bus stations refer to the bus station and other buildings in the plot are arranged vertically as a whole, and the bus station is on the ground floor of the plot.

[0114] In another embodiment, in step 4, the station area of ​​bus stations of different construction forms is calculated, and the total supply of station area of ​​bus stations is calculated. , the method comprises the following steps:

[0115] Step 4.1: The terminal and hub are independent bus stations or non-independent bus stations. The land use and construction forms are comprehensive. The terminal and hub are built as flat terminal and hub, or three-dimensional terminal and hub, or separated terminal and hub, or covered terminal and hub. The number of terminal and hub in the four construction forms is respectively , , , . Flat terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, The three-dimensional terminal and hub station are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, . Separate terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, The covered terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0116] The supply station area of ​​the terminal and hub station is calculated according to the following formula :

[0117]

[0118] in, For the The terminal area of ​​each terminal and hub station.

[0119] Step 4.2: Parking and maintenance yards are usually built on separate land because they will cause environmental pollution such as wastewater, exhaust gas, and noise. According to the construction form, they can be divided into flat bus stations and three-dimensional bus stations. The number of flat parking and maintenance yards and three-dimensional parking and maintenance yards is , The flat parking lot is , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, . The three-dimensional parking lot is , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0120] Calculate the supply station area of ​​the parking maintenance yard according to the following formula :

[0121]

[0122] in, For the The site area of ​​a parking maintenance yard.

[0123] Step 4.3: Calculate the total supply of bus station area according to the following formula:

[0124]

[0125] and then:

[0126] ;

[0127] in, is the total area supply of bus stations, The number of first and last stations and hub stations required by the city. , is the number of flat terminal stations and hub stations, is the number of three-dimensional terminal stations and hub stations. To build a number of separated terminal stations and hub stations, To build the number of overhead terminal stations and hub stations, For the The terminal area of ​​each terminal and hub station, The number of parking lots required for the city, , is the number of flat parking and maintenance lots, is the number of three-dimensional parking maintenance lots, For the The site area of ​​a parking maintenance yard.

[0128] In another embodiment, in step 6, a relationship model between the area of ​​a bus station and the land area of ​​a bus station is established, the land area of ​​bus stations of different construction forms is calculated, and the total land area of ​​a city bus station is calculated. The method includes the following steps:

[0129] Step 6.1: Calculate the land area of ​​the flat bus station based on the area and number of flat terminal stations, hub stations, and the area and number of flat parking and maintenance yards. .

[0130] ;

[0131] Step 6.2: Calculate the land area of ​​the three-dimensional bus station based on the area and average number of floors of the three-dimensional terminal and hub station, and the area and average number of floors of the three-dimensional parking and maintenance yard. .

[0132] ;

[0133] Step 6.3: Calculate the land area of ​​the separated bus station based on the station area and average number of floors of the separated terminal and hub station. .

[0134] ;

[0135] Step 6.4: Obtain the total land area of ​​the bus station based on the land area of ​​the flat bus station, the land area of ​​the three-dimensional bus station, and the land area of ​​the separated bus station. :

[0136] ;

[0137] and then:

[0138] ;

[0139] in, It is the total land area of ​​the bus station.

[0140] In another embodiment, the total area requirement of the bus station is determined in step 5. Total supply of station area The method comprises the following steps:

[0141] Step 5.1: If the total area supply of bus stations is Total site area requirement The initial layout of terminal stations, hub stations, and parking and maintenance yards will meet the demand.

[0142] Step 5.2: If the total area supply of bus stations is Total site area requirement If the initial layout of the terminal, hub station, and parking maintenance yard area does not meet the demand, repeat steps 3 and 4 until .

[0143] A bus station land demand scale prediction system includes an input unit, an urban bus vehicle scale unit, a bus station area total demand unit, a classification unit, a bus station area total supply unit, a total demand and total supply relationship unit, and a station area land area relationship unit, wherein:

[0144] The input unit is used to input the total daily travel volume of urban residents, the travel share of public buses and trams, the bus transfer coefficient, the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, and the daily effective operating vehicle ratio.

[0145] The urban public transport vehicle scale unit is used to obtain the urban public transport vehicle scale according to the total daily travel volume of urban residents, the travel share of public buses and trams, the bus transfer coefficient, the average daily passenger capacity of each standard public transport vehicle, and the daily effective operating vehicle ratio.

[0146] The bus station area total demand unit is used to obtain the bus station area total demand according to the scale of urban public buses and the average bus station area index.

[0147] The classification unit is used to propose a preliminary layout plan for bus stations and classify bus stations according to the nature of land use and construction form.

[0148] The bus station area total supply unit is used to obtain the station areas of bus stations with different construction forms according to the classified bus stations, and then obtain the total supply of bus station areas.

[0149] The total demand-to-supply relationship unit is used to establish the relationship between the total demand for bus station area and the total supply of bus station area.

[0150] The station area and land area relationship unit is used to establish a relationship model between the station area and the land area of ​​a bus station according to the relationship between the total station area demand and the total station area supply of the bus station, to obtain the land area of ​​bus stations of different construction forms, and then to obtain the total land area of ​​urban bus stations.

[0151] simulation

[0152] Taking a city as an example, combined with Figure 1 , the method for predicting the land demand scale of bus stations proposed in the present invention is further described in detail:

[0153] Step 1: Calculate the scale of urban public transport vehicles using the following formula based on the urban public transport passenger volume and the average daily passenger volume per vehicle:

[0154]

[0155] in, The size of urban public transport vehicles. is the total daily trip volume of the city's residents. The total daily trip volume of the city's residents is 191.25 . is the public bus and tram travel share rate. The public bus and tram travel share rate in this city is 10%. is the bus transfer coefficient. The bus transfer coefficient of this city is 1.1. is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus. The average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus in this city is 300 . The daily effective operating vehicle ratio of the city is 90%.

[0156] Step 2: Calculate the required bus terminal area, hub station, and parking and maintenance area based on the city bus fleet size and bus terminal area per bus, and calculate the total bus terminal area demand. .

[0157] Step 2.1, referring to the requirements of the regulations and the actual situation, the bus stations mainly include the first and last stations, hub stations, parking and maintenance yards, and intermediate stations. The intermediate stations are combined with road construction and do not involve land use issues, so they are not considered in this invention. The first and last stations and hub stations are similar and are considered in the same category.

[0158] Specifically, the current bus stations in the city are classified into terminal stations, transfer centers, and parking and maintenance yards, among which the transfer center is the hub station, so the classification of bus stations in the city is the same as the classification of bus stations in the present technical invention.

[0159] Step 2.2: Calculate the required terminal area of ​​the terminal and hub station according to the following formula:

[0160]

[0161] in, The required station area for the city’s terminal and hub stations. The city's bus fleet size is predicted to be 779 standard units. The average area of ​​the terminal and hub stations required by the regulations for public transportation vehicles is 120 .

[0162] Step 2.3, calculate the required parking area of ​​the maintenance yard according to the following formula:

[0163]

[0164] in, The required parking area for urban parking and maintenance yards. The city's bus fleet size is predicted to be 779 standard units. The average area of ​​parking lots for public buses required by the regulations is 200 .

[0165] Step 2.4: Calculate the total area required for bus stations using the following formula: :

[0166]

[0167] in, is the total area demand of bus stations, It is the proportion of buses parked at terminal stations and hub stations at night. The general value is 10%-40%. In this case, it is 30%. It is the proportion of parking area in terminal stations and hub stations to the total area, which is generally 40%-60%. In this case, it is 50%. It is the proportion of other venues and facilities in the terminal and hub station to the total area, which is generally 40%-60%. In this case, it is 50%. The proportion of buses parked in parking and maintenance lots at night is generally 60%-90%, and in this case it is 70%. It is the ratio of parking area to total area in the parking maintenance yard, generally ranging from 70% to 90%. In this case, it is taken as 80%. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the parking maintenance yard to the total area, generally ranging from 10% to 30%. In this case, it is taken as 20%.

[0168] Step 3: Propose a preliminary layout plan for bus stations and classify bus stations according to land use nature and construction form.

[0169] Step 3.1, calculate the approximate number of required terminals and hubs according to the following formula:

[0170] indivual

[0171] in, The approximate number of terminals and hubs required for the city. The general station area of ​​a single terminal or hub station is 3000 .

[0172] Step 3.2, calculate the approximate number of parking and maintenance yards required according to the following formula:

[0173] indivual

[0174] in, The approximate number of parking lots required for the city, The general area of ​​a single parking lot is 15,000. .

[0175] Step 3.3, based on the current distribution of urban terminals and hubs, the layout of bus stations proposed in the national land space planning, and the passenger flow demand analysis, a preliminary layout plan for terminal and hub planning is proposed. The preliminary layout plan includes the number of terminal and hubs to be laid out, the area of ​​each terminal and hub, the construction form of each terminal and hub, and the preliminary layout. The first and last stations and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0176] Specifically, the city currently has 20 bus terminals and hubs. After sorting out the city's land space planning, regulatory detailed planning and other related plans, in addition to the existing bus terminals and hubs, a total of 10 bus terminals and hubs are reserved, and a preliminary layout of 30 bus terminals and hubs is proposed. The preliminary layout plan for the terminals and hubs in the future is shown in the table:

[0177] Table 1 Preliminary layout plan of terminal stations and hub stations in the future

[0178]

[0179] Step 3.4, based on the current distribution of parking and maintenance yards in the city, the preliminary layout plan of the terminal and hub stations, propose a preliminary layout plan for the parking and maintenance yards. The preliminary layout plan includes the number of parking and maintenance yards to be laid out, the area of ​​each parking and maintenance yard, the construction form of each parking and maintenance yard, and the preliminary layout plan. There are parking lots, namely , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0180] Specifically, there are 6 parking and maintenance yards in the city. According to the preliminary layout plan of the terminal and hub stations proposed above, the city's land space planning, control detailed planning and other related plans are sorted out. In addition to the existing parking and maintenance yards, a total of 4 parking and maintenance yards are reserved, and 10 parking and maintenance yards are initially laid out. The preliminary layout plan of parking and maintenance yards in the future is proposed as shown in the table:

[0181] Table 2 Preliminary layout plan of parking and maintenance yard in the future

[0182]

[0183] Step 3.5, bus stations can be divided into independent bus stations and non-independent bus stations according to the land use form. Independent bus stations refer to the construction of only bus stations on the land without other buildings. Non-independent bus stations refer to the construction of other buildings on the land in addition to bus stations, including comprehensive development bus stations and supporting construction bus stations.

[0184] Step 3.6, independent bus stations can be divided into flat bus stations and three-dimensional bus stations according to the construction form. Flat bus stations refer to bus stations with parking lots, office buildings and facilities arranged horizontally on the same plane, and three-dimensional bus stations refer to bus stations with parking lots, office buildings and facilities arranged vertically on different planes, and built in multiple floors. Non-independent bus stations can be divided into separated bus stations and covered bus stations according to the construction form. Separated bus stations refer to bus stations and other buildings in the plot are separated from each other in space, and covered bus stations refer to bus stations and other buildings in the plot are arranged vertically as a whole, and generally bus stations are on the ground floor of the plot.

[0185] Step 4: Calculate the area of ​​bus stations with different construction forms and the total supply of bus station area .

[0186] Step 4.1: The terminal and hub are independent bus stations or non-independent bus stations. The land use and construction forms are comprehensive. The terminal and hub are built as flat terminal and hub, or three-dimensional terminal and hub, or separated terminal and hub, or covered terminal and hub. The number of terminal and hub in the four construction forms is respectively , , , . Flat terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, The three-dimensional terminal and hub station are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, . Separate terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, The covered terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0187] Specifically, the city has 18 first and last stations and hub stations with flat construction, 5 first and last stations and hub stations with three-dimensional construction, 4 first and last stations and hub stations with separated construction, and 3 first and last stations and hub stations with superstructure construction. The construction forms are shown in the table:

[0188] Table 3 Construction forms of terminal stations and hub stations in the future

[0189]

[0190] The supply station area of ​​the terminal and hub station is calculated according to the following formula :

[0191]

[0192] in, For the The terminal area of ​​each terminal and hub station.

[0193] Step 4.2: Parking and maintenance yards are usually built on separate land because they will cause environmental pollution such as wastewater, exhaust gas, and noise. According to the construction form, they can be divided into flat bus stations and three-dimensional bus stations. The number of flat parking and maintenance yards and three-dimensional parking and maintenance yards is , The flat parking lot is , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, . The three-dimensional parking lot is , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, .

[0194] Specifically, there are 6 parking and maintenance yards with flat construction and 4 parking and maintenance yards with three-dimensional construction in this city. The construction forms are shown in the table:

[0195] Table 4 Construction forms of parking and maintenance yards in the future

[0196]

[0197] Calculate the supply station area of ​​the parking maintenance yard according to the following formula :

[0198]

[0199] in, For the The site area of ​​a parking maintenance yard.

[0200] Step 4.3: Calculate the total supply of bus station area according to the following formula: :

[0201] .

[0202] Step 5: Determine the total area required for bus stations Total supply of station area relationship.

[0203] Step 5.1: If the total area supply of bus stations is Total site area requirement The initial layout of terminal stations, hub stations, and parking and maintenance yards will meet the demand.

[0204] Step 5.2: If the total area supply of bus stations is Total site area requirement If the initial layout of the terminal, hub station, and parking maintenance yard area does not meet the demand, repeat steps 3 and 4 until .

[0205] Specifically, the total area supply of bus stations in the city Greater than the total site area requirement The initial layout of terminal stations, hub stations, and parking and maintenance yards will provide sufficient area to meet demand.

[0206] Step 6, establish a relationship model between the bus station area and the bus station land area, calculate the land area of ​​bus stations with different construction forms, and calculate the total land area of ​​urban bus stations.

[0207] Step 6.1: Calculate the land area of ​​the flat bus station according to the following formula: :

[0208] ;

[0209] Specifically, taking the Minghu Middle School bus terminal in Table 3 as an example, the bus terminal is a flat-type bus station with an area of ​​2333 The land area is also 2333 Taking the Chenjiazhuang bus depot in Table 4 as an example, the depot is a flat-type bus station with an area of ​​10,000 square meters. The land area is also 10,000 .

[0210] Land area of ​​flat bus station .

[0211] Step 6.2: Calculate the land area of ​​the three-dimensional bus station according to the following formula: :

[0212] ;

[0213] in, For the The average number of floors of terminal and hub stations, For the The average number of floors in a parking maintenance yard.

[0214] Specifically, take the Jingzi Road bus terminal in Table 3 as an example. The bus terminal is a three-dimensional bus station with an area of ​​4300 square meters. , adopting the mode of building 2 and parking 3, that is, the average number of floors is 2, the roof is used as the parking floor, and the land area is Taking the Suzhou-Changzhou bus depot in Table 4 as an example, the depot is a three-dimensional bus station with an area of ​​15,000 square meters. The model of building 3 and parking 4 is adopted, that is, the average number of floors is 3, and the roof is used as a parking floor, with a land area of .

[0215] Land area of ​​three-dimensional bus station .

[0216] Step 6.3, calculate the land area of ​​the separated bus station according to the following formula:

[0217] ;

[0218] Specifically, taking the Langyashan South Gate Bus Terminal in Table 3 as an example, the bus terminal is a separated bus station with an area of ​​2600 square meters. The average number of floors is 1, and the land area is 2600 .

[0219] Land area of ​​separated bus station .

[0220] Step 6.4: Calculate the total land area of ​​the bus station according to the following formula: :

[0221] .

[0222] The present invention can realize accurate calculation of the station area and land demand of the bus station, and is simple, practical, operable and effective.

[0223] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be regarded as the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the scale of land demand for bus stations, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: According to the urban public transport passenger volume and the daily average passenger volume of a single vehicle, the scale of urban public transport vehicles is obtained; Step 2: According to the scale of urban public transport vehicles and the average bus depot area index per bus, the total demand for bus depot area is obtained; Step 3: Propose a preliminary layout plan for bus stations and classify bus stations according to land use and construction forms; Step 4, according to the classified bus stations, the station areas of bus stations with different construction forms are obtained, and then the total supply of bus station areas is obtained; Step 5, establish the relationship between the total demand and supply of bus station area; Step 6: Based on the relationship between the total demand and supply of bus station areas, a relationship model between the bus station area and the land area is established to obtain the land area of ​​bus stations of different construction forms, and then the total land area of ​​urban bus stations is obtained; The relationship model between the bus station area and the land area is: ； condition: in, is the total land area of ​​the bus station, For the The terminal area of ​​each terminal and hub station, For the The parking area of ​​the maintenance yard is For the The average number of floors of terminal and hub stations, For the The average number of floors in a parking maintenance yard, The number of first and last stations and hub stations required by the city. , is the number of flat terminal stations and hub stations, The number of three-dimensional terminal stations and hub stations. To build a number of separated terminal stations and hub stations, To build the number of overhead terminal stations and hub stations, The number of parking lots required for the city, , is the number of flat parking and maintenance lots, is the number of three-dimensional parking maintenance lots, is the total area demand of bus stations, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, is the daily effective operating vehicle ratio, is the proportion of buses parked at terminal stations and hub stations at night. It is the proportion of parking area in the terminal and hub station to the total area. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the terminal and hub stations to the total area. To standardize the average area of ​​the terminal and hub stations required for public transportation vehicles. It is the first and last station and hub station; is the proportion of buses parked in parking lots at night, is the ratio of parking lot area to total area in the parking maintenance yard. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the parking maintenance yard to the total area. For parking maintenance area, It is the total supply of bus station area.

2. The method for predicting land demand scale for bus stations according to claim 1 is characterized by: The scale of urban public transport vehicles in step 1 is: ； in, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, It is the proportion of vehicles in effective operation every day.

3. The method for predicting land demand scale for bus stations according to claim 2 is characterized by: The method of step 2 comprises the following steps: Step 2.1, refer to the specification requirements and actual situation to obtain the bus station type, which includes terminal station, hub station, parking and maintenance yard, and intermediate station; Step 2.2, according to the city bus scale and the average terminal area index of the terminal and hub required by the bus in accordance with the regulations, the required terminal area of ​​the terminal and hub is obtained; Step 2.3, according to the scale of urban public buses and the average parking area index of the public buses required by the regulations, the required parking area of ​​the parking maintenance yard is obtained; Step 2.4, according to the required station area of ​​the terminal and hub stations and the required station area of ​​the parking and maintenance yard, the total station area demand of the bus station is obtained: ； in, is the total area demand of bus stations, is the total daily travel volume of urban residents, is the travel share of public buses and trams, is the bus transfer coefficient, is the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, is the daily effective operating vehicle ratio, is the proportion of buses parked at terminal stations and hub stations at night. It is the proportion of parking area in the terminal and hub station to the total area. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the terminal and hub stations to the total area. is the size of urban public transport vehicles, To standardize the average area of ​​the terminal and hub stations required for public transportation vehicles. It is the first and last station and hub station; is the proportion of buses parked in parking lots at night, is the ratio of parking lot area to total area in the parking maintenance yard. It is the proportion of other sites and facilities in the parking maintenance yard to the total area. It indicates the average parking area per vehicle required for public buses in accordance with the regulations.

4. The method for predicting land demand scale for bus stations according to claim 3 is characterized by: The method of step 3 comprises the following steps: Step 3.1, according to the required terminal area of ​​the city's terminal and hub stations and the terminal area of ​​a single terminal and hub station, the number of required terminal and hub stations is obtained; The number of first and last stations and hub stations required is: ； in, The number of first and last stations and hub stations required by the city. Indicates the terminal area of ​​a city’s terminal and hub station. It refers to the station area of ​​a single terminal or hub station; Step 3.2, obtaining the number of required parking maintenance yards according to the required yard area of ​​the urban parking maintenance yard and the yard area of ​​a single parking maintenance yard; The number of parking lots required is: ； in, The number of parking lots required for the city, Indicates the area of ​​the urban parking and maintenance yard. The area of ​​a single parking and maintenance yard; Step 3.3, based on the current distribution of urban terminals and hubs, the layout of bus stations proposed in the national land space planning, and the passenger flow demand analysis, a preliminary layout plan for terminal and hub planning is proposed. The preliminary layout plan includes the number of terminal and hubs to be laid out, the area of ​​each terminal and hub, the construction form of each terminal and hub, and the preliminary layout. The first and last stations and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, ; Step 3.4, based on the current distribution of parking and maintenance yards in the city, the preliminary layout plan of the terminal and hub stations, propose a preliminary layout plan for the parking and maintenance yards. The preliminary layout plan includes the number of parking and maintenance yards to be laid out, the area of ​​each parking and maintenance yard, the construction form of each parking and maintenance yard, and the preliminary layout plan. There are parking lots, namely , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, ; Step 3.5: Bus stations are divided into independent bus stations and non-independent bus stations according to the land use form. Independent bus stations refer to the construction of only bus stations on the land without other buildings; non-independent bus stations refer to the construction of other buildings on the land in addition to bus stations. Non-independent bus stations include comprehensive development bus stations and supporting construction bus stations. Step 3.6, independent bus stations are divided into flat bus stations and three-dimensional bus stations according to their construction form. Flat bus stations refer to bus stations with parking lots, office buildings and facilities arranged horizontally on the same plane, and three-dimensional bus stations refer to bus stations with parking lots, office buildings and facilities arranged vertically on different planes, with multiple floors. Non-independent bus stations are divided into separated bus stations and covered bus stations according to their construction form. Separated bus stations refer to bus stations that are spatially separated from other buildings on the plot, and covered bus stations refer to bus stations that are vertically arranged together with other buildings on the plot, and the bus stations are on the ground floor of the plot.

5. The method for predicting land demand scale for bus stations according to claim 4 is characterized by: The method of step 4 comprises the following steps: Step 4.1: The terminal and hub are independent bus stations or non-independent bus stations. The land use and construction forms are comprehensive. The terminal and hub are built as flat terminal and hub, or three-dimensional terminal and hub, or separated terminal and hub, or covered terminal and hub. The number of terminal and hub in the four construction forms is respectively , , , ; Flat terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, ; The three-dimensional terminal and hub station are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, ; Separate terminal and hub stations are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, ; The terminal and hub stations of the covered type are , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, ; Step 4.2: Parking and maintenance yards are constructed independently and are divided into two types according to the construction form: flat bus stations and three-dimensional bus stations. The number of flat parking and maintenance yards and three-dimensional parking and maintenance yards is , ; Flat parking maintenance area , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, ; The three-dimensional parking maintenance area is , ,……, The station areas are , ,……, ; Step 4.3: Calculate the total supply of bus station area according to the following formula: ； in, is the total area supply of bus stations, , is the number of flat terminal stations and hub stations, The number of three-dimensional terminal stations and hub stations. To build a number of separated terminal stations and hub stations, To build the number of overhead terminal stations and hub stations, For the The terminal area of ​​each terminal and hub station, , is the number of flat parking and maintenance lots, is the number of three-dimensional parking maintenance lots, For the The site area of ​​a parking maintenance yard.

6. The method for predicting land demand scale for bus stations according to claim 5 is characterized by: The method of step 6 comprises the following steps: Step 6.1, according to the station area and quantity of the plane terminal and hub station, and the station area and quantity of the plane parking and maintenance yard, obtain the land area of ​​the plane bus station; Step 6.2, according to the station area and average number of floors of the three-dimensional terminal station and hub station, and the station area and average number of floors of the three-dimensional parking and maintenance yard, the land area of ​​the three-dimensional bus station is obtained; Step 6.3, obtain the land area of ​​the separated bus station according to the station area and average number of floors of the separated terminal and hub station; Step 6.4, according to the land area of ​​the flat bus station, the land area of ​​the three-dimensional bus station and the land area of ​​the separated bus station, the total land area of ​​the bus station is obtained: ； in, It is the total land area of ​​the bus station.

7. The method for predicting land demand scale for bus stations according to claim 6 is characterized by: The method of step 5 comprises the following steps: Step 5.1: If the total area supply of bus stations is Total site area requirement The initial layout of terminal stations, hub stations, and parking and maintenance yards should meet the demand; Step 5.2: If the total area supply of bus stations is Total site area requirement If the initial layout of the terminal, hub station, and parking maintenance yard area does not meet the demand, repeat steps 3 and 4 until .

8. A bus station land demand scale prediction system, characterized in that: The method for predicting the land demand scale of bus stations as claimed in claim 1 comprises an input unit, an urban bus vehicle scale unit, a total bus station area demand unit, a classification unit, a bus station area total supply unit, a total demand and total supply relationship unit, and a bus station area land area relationship unit, wherein: The input unit is used to input the total daily travel volume of urban residents, the travel share of public buses and trams, the bus transfer coefficient, the average daily passenger capacity of each standard bus, and the daily effective operating vehicle ratio; The urban public transport vehicle scale unit is used to obtain the urban public transport vehicle scale according to the total daily travel volume of urban residents, the travel share of public buses and trams, the bus transfer coefficient, the average daily passenger capacity of each standard public transport vehicle, and the daily effective operating vehicle ratio; The bus station area total demand unit is used to obtain the total demand for bus station area according to the scale of urban public buses and the average bus station area index per bus; The classification unit is used to propose a preliminary layout plan for bus stations and classify bus stations according to land use form and construction form; The bus station area total supply unit is used to obtain the station areas of bus stations with different construction forms according to the classified bus stations, and then obtain the total supply of bus station areas; The total demand and total supply relationship unit is used to establish the relationship between the total demand and total supply of bus station area; The station area and land area relationship unit is used to establish a relationship model between the station area and the land area of ​​a bus station according to the relationship between the total station area demand and the total station area supply of the bus station, to obtain the land area of ​​bus stations of different construction forms, and then to obtain the total land area of ​​urban bus stations.

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