Landslide risk evaluation method and system based on substation failure model

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster risk research, in particular to a landslide risk evaluation method and system based on a substation failure model. Carrying out detailed investigation on the landslide of the transformer substation to obtain physical and mechanical properties of a rock-soil body; calculating seepage characteristics of the rock-soil body by using a rainfall infiltration hydrograph model, simulating landslide stability under different rainfall working conditions by using FLAC3D software, and calculating an annual instability probability in combination with a Monte Carlo method; and simulating deformation and failure models of various facilities in the transformer substation in the landslide instability process by using FLAC3D, carrying out valuing on the vulnerability of various facilities, and calculating the economic loss of the transformer substation under various working conditions. The invention further comprises corresponding system implementation. According to the method, comprehensive, quantitative and accurate assessment of the landslide risk of the transformer substation is realized by integrating geological survey, a hydrological model, numerical simulation and a statistical method, a scientific basis is provided for safety management of a power grid in a mountainous area, and the method can be popularized and applied to risk assessment of other similar geological disasters.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster risk research, and in particular to a landslide risk assessment method and system based on a transformer substation failure model. Background Art

[0002] Landslide refers to the geological phenomenon that the surface soil or rock slides down along a certain angle. It usually occurs in steep terrains such as hillsides, river banks, cliffs, etc., and is a common geological disaster. Landslide vulnerability refers to the possibility of a landslide in a certain area or location and the extent or impact that may be caused after a landslide occurs. Assessing landslide vulnerability is an important part of geological hazard risk assessment, which helps to identify and assess areas that may be threatened by landslides and take corresponding response and prevention measures.

[0003] Landslide vulnerability assessment methods can be divided into three categories: qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative assessment. Qualitative or semi-quantitative methods belong to traditional hazard assessment methods, mainly including information method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, grey correlation analysis method and artificial neural network method. Such methods often have the problems of high sample dependence or strong subjectivity, and are less applicable to the vulnerability assessment of single landslides. With the development of debris flow computer technology, numerical simulation methods have been introduced into landslide research, forming a quantitative assessment method for landslide vulnerability based on numerical simulation. The basic process is: first, numerical simulation methods are used to restore the instability and destruction process of the landslide, and the deformation and destruction mode of the substation under the landslide movement process is obtained. Then, the equipment in the substation is classified according to the industry specifications and the deformation of each equipment in the substation. Finally, the vulnerability assessment model of the substation is obtained according to the deformation and destruction model of the substation.

[0004] Due to the unique geological conditions, landslide disasters caused by heavy rainfall frequently occur in Guizhou Province. The existing quantitative landslide vulnerability assessment methods lack a vulnerability assessment method for landslide disasters in mountainous power grids. Therefore, the landslide vulnerability assessment of substations is prone to miscalculation or underestimation of vulnerability, thereby misleading disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency rescue work. Therefore, accurately establishing a landslide vulnerability assessment method based on the deformation and damage model of substations is a technical problem that needs to be solved urgently. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention is proposed.

[0006] Therefore, the problem to be solved by the present invention is that the existing quantitative landslide vulnerability evaluation methods lack a vulnerability evaluation method for landslide disasters in mountainous power grids. Therefore, the landslide vulnerability evaluation of substations is prone to misestimation or underestimation of vulnerability, thereby misleading disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency rescue work.

[0007] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0008] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model, which includes surveying substation landslides, identifying geological conditions and landslide instability characteristics in the landslide area, and obtaining physical and mechanical properties of rock and soil through field survey data and indoor tests;

[0009] The rainfall infiltration hydrological model was used to calculate the seepage characteristics of rock and soil, and the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions was evaluated using FLAC3D software. The annual instability probability of landslides was calculated using the Monte Carlo method, and the annual instability probability of substation landslides was used as a hazard evaluation indicator for landslides.

[0010] FLAC3D is used to simulate the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process, and the vulnerability of various facilities is determined. The economic loss of the substation under various working conditions is obtained using the risk calculation formula to realize the substation landslide risk assessment.

[0011] As a preferred solution of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model of the present invention, wherein: the substation landslide survey may be carried out by the steps of surveying the substation landslide to find out the geological conditions of the landslide area;

[0012] The instability mechanism of the substation is analyzed using the on-site monitoring data, and the on-site rock and soil are collected for indoor tests to determine the natural parameters required for the numerical simulation of substation landslides.

[0013] As a preferred solution of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model of the present invention, the following steps can be adopted to calculate the seepage characteristics of the rock and soil mass using the rainfall infiltration hydrological model:

[0014] Simplified rainfall infiltration model to calculate rainfall infiltration depth under different working conditions;

[0015] The stability of substation landslides under different rainfall conditions was evaluated by simulation using FLAC3D software;

[0016] The instability probability of substation landslide is obtained by using FLAC3D numerical simulation software combined with the Monte Carlo method. The annual instability probability of landslide is calculated by combining the conditional probability calculation method. The annual instability probability of substation landslide is used as the hazard evaluation index of landslide.

[0017] As a preferred solution of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model of the present invention, wherein: the rainfall infiltration hydrological model is used to calculate the seepage characteristics of the rock and soil body, and the stability of the landslide under different rainfall conditions is evaluated by FLAC3D software simulation, wherein the following steps can be adopted:

[0018] According to the landslide risk assessment specification and the local rainfall threshold, determine the rainfall conditions for landslide risk assessment, and consult the local hydrological manual to obtain the rainfall for the design conditions:

[0019]

[0020] Among them, H P Calculate rainfall for 24-hour design for each operating condition; is the average surface rainfall, K p is the modulus ratio coefficient, and its value is similar to C s / C v The ratio of C s is the skewness coefficient, C v is the coefficient of variation, and C can be determined s / C v Ratio, obtain K by referring to Appendix 6-1 in the local hydrological manual p value;

[0021] Use UAV 3D oblique photography to obtain elevation data and DEM data on site, and use the obtained contour lines to bring them into Rhino software to build a 3D geological model;

[0022] The Green-Ampt model is introduced in the numerical calculation process, and the rock and soil above the wetting front is considered to be in a saturated state. Therefore, in the numerical model, saturated parameters are used to calculate the rock and soil above the wetting front, and natural parameters are used for the rock and soil below the wetting front.

[0023] Different rainfall conditions are represented by different infiltration depths:

[0024]

[0025] In the formula, y is the infiltration depth; t is the rainfall duration, which is 1 day in the calculation; q is the rainfall intensity, in mm / d; α is the slope gradient; ω s is the saturated moisture content, ω i is the initial moisture content;

[0026] Obtain the rock and soil parameters required for numerical simulation based on collected data or indoor tests;

[0027] The substation landslide was numerically simulated using FLAC3D software combined with the above-mentioned rock and soil parameters. The stability coefficient of the landslide under different rainfall conditions was obtained to evaluate the stability of the substation landslide.

[0028] As a preferred solution of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model of the present invention, wherein: the instability probability of the Liangtian substation landslide is obtained by using the FLAC3D numerical simulation software in combination with the Monte Carlo method and the annual instability probability of the landslide is calculated by combining the conditional probability calculation method, and the annual instability probability of the substation landslide is used as the hazard assessment index of the landslide. The following steps can be adopted:

[0029] The probability of landslide instability of substation is calculated by FLAC3D-Monte Carlo coupling simulation method.

[0030] When simulating multiple times in FLAC3D, the frequency of meeting the conditions is equal to the failure probability of the landslide. The failure probability of the landslide can be obtained using the following expression:

[0031]

[0032] P f =1-Φ(β)

[0033] in, is the random number in the stability equation; P f is the frequency of the stability coefficient F being less than 1; M is the number of times F≤1 is satisfied, and N is the number of simulations;

[0034] The shear parameters cohesion and internal friction angle of the substation landslide in the numerical simulation process are used as the random number X of the stability equation;

[0035] The saturated shear strength and internal friction angle of the sliding body are generated by using the random number call package in MATLAB software to generate random numbers that conform to the distribution of the state variable function G(Fs). The random number parameters of the shear strength and internal friction angle of the sliding body soil under the saturated state are:

[0036] The possibility of landslide instability can be preliminarily determined based on the calculated landslide instability probability;

[0037] The instability probability of landslides is calculated based on the FLAC3D-Monte Carlo simulation method. The landslide hazard risk assessment also includes the time scale, which is determined to be years according to references;

[0038] Therefore, the probability of landslide occurrence is expressed in annual probability. The annual instability probability of rainfall-type landslide is calculated using the conditional probability calculation formula, which can be expressed as follows:

[0039] P[B|A]=P[AB] / P[A]

[0040] P[AB]=P[B|A]×P[A]

[0041] Among them, P[A] is the probability of occurrence of rainfall conditions, which is generally expressed by the rainfall return period T. The occurrence of rainfall conditions and the rainfall return period T have the following corresponding relationship, that is, P[A] = 1 / T; P[B|A] is the conditional probability of landslide occurrence under rainfall conditions, that is, the obtained landslide instability probability P f , P[AB] is the probability of a certain rainfall condition occurring together with a landslide event, that is, the joint probability of A and B;

[0042] According to the calculation results of the above formula and the semi-quantitative standard of danger corresponding to the range of landslide probability values ​​in different years, the danger level within the range of instability probability in different years can be divided.

[0043] As a preferred solution of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model of the present invention, wherein: the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process is obtained by FLAC3D simulation, the vulnerability of various facilities is determined, and the economic loss of the substation under various working conditions is obtained by using the risk calculation formula to obtain the substation landslide risk assessment, which can be mainly divided into the following steps:

[0044] According to the simulation of the landslide instability process of the substation by FLAC3D software, the deformation and damage process of various facilities inside the substation were obtained, and the damage models of various facilities were summarized;

[0045] The damage standards for various types of facilities were established using existing industry specifications. Finally, a dimensionless value between 0 and 1 was used to represent the vulnerability of each facility, and a vulnerability assessment model for substation landslides was established.

[0046] As a preferred solution of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model of the present invention, the FLAC3D software simulates the landslide instability process of the substation, summarizes the deformation and damage process of various facilities inside the substation, and summarizes the damage model of various facilities using the following steps:

[0047] Using Rhino software and based on the original 3D geological model, excavation was carried out, and various substation facility models were established within the excavation range, and finally a landslide-substation model was obtained;

[0048] The defect of the grid division function of Rhino software is that the landslide-substation model grid is divided into a unified grid size by default. The difference between the landslide-substation grid is obtained by differential division of the landslide-substation grid and the accuracy of the numerical simulation results.

[0049] Import the grid division file into FLAC3D to obtain the landslide-substation numerical model, wherein the grid division file is in the .f3grid file format;

[0050] Monitor the displacement of each part of each type of facility and obtain the deformation curves of various types of facilities in the landslide-substation numerical model;

[0051] The deformation and damage process of each device in the substation is analyzed based on the calculation results of numerical analysis, and the deformation mechanism of each device is obtained by combining the above monitoring data curve analysis;

[0052] Determine the failure criteria of each facility in the substation, obtain a quantitative description of the vulnerability of each facility in the substation, and collect and organize the damage criteria of concrete poles, control rooms and transformer foundations in the substation based on various existing specifications and power industry standards;

[0053] The destruction criteria of three common types of equipment in substations are proposed;

[0054] Concrete poles are mainly deformed by tilt, so the tilt is used as its damage index. The tilt can be represented by the relative displacement between the top and the bottom / pole height;

[0055] The control room is mainly tilted due to uneven displacement of the base, so the overall tilt rate is used as its damage index. The overall tilt rate can be represented by the cumulative settlement difference between any two adjacent points of the four corners divided by the horizontal distance between the two points;

[0056] The transformer foundation is mainly damaged by concrete cracking caused by uneven settlement of the base, so the uneven settlement ratio of the transformer foundation is used as its damage index. The uneven settlement ratio can be expressed as the maximum settlement / foundation height;

[0057] According to the destruction criteria of the above-mentioned facilities, a damage assessment model for various facilities in the substation is established. It is determined that when the equipment in the substation is intact and can be used, its vulnerability is 0. When the equipment in the substation reaches the destruction standard, its vulnerability is determined to be 1. When the status of various equipment is between deformation and destruction, the above-mentioned destruction criteria are used to determine the vulnerability of its status through linear interpolation.

[0058] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a landslide risk assessment system based on a substation failure model, which includes an acquisition module for surveying substation landslides, identifying geological conditions and landslide instability characteristics in the landslide area, and obtaining physical and mechanical properties of rock and soil through field survey data and indoor tests;

[0059] Evaluation module, using rainfall infiltration hydrological model to calculate rock and soil seepage characteristics, using FLAC3D software to simulate the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions, combining Monte Carlo method to calculate the annual instability probability of landslides, and using the annual instability probability of substation landslides as a landslide hazard evaluation indicator;

[0060] The output module uses FLAC3D to simulate the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process, sets the vulnerability of various facilities, and uses the risk calculation formula to obtain the economic loss of the substation under various working conditions, thereby realizing the landslide risk assessment of the substation.

[0061] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: when the computer program instructions are executed by the processor, the steps of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model as described in the first aspect of the present invention are implemented.

[0062] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein: when the computer program instructions are executed by a processor, the steps of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model as described in the first aspect of the present invention are implemented.

[0063] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the present invention is based on the risk assessment results obtained by landslide hazard assessment based on dynamic processes, landslide failure probability calculation based on rainfall infiltration hydrological model, slope stability calculation model and Monte Carlo method, and vulnerability assessment based on substation deformation and failure model.

[0064] The calculation model of landslide hazard and landslide damage probability adopted in the present invention and the proposed substation deformation and damage model and vulnerability model have been verified, realizing the landslide risk assessment considering the substation deformation and damage model, and enriching the types of research methods for landslide risk assessment in mountainous areas of Guizhou. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0065] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0066] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model;

[0067] Figure 2 Computer equipment diagram for landslide risk assessment method based on substation failure model;

[0068] Figure 3 The landslide geological model of Liangtian substation is an embodiment of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model;

[0069] Figure 4An embodiment of a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model is a numerical model of a landslide at Liangtian substation;

[0070] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the Green-Ampt infiltration model of an embodiment of a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model;

[0071] Figure 6 The displacement cloud map of the natural working condition landslide in the embodiment of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model;

[0072] Figure 7 The displacement cloud map of the landslide under the rainfall condition with a return period of 10 years is an embodiment of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model;

[0073] Figure 8 The displacement cloud map of the landslide under the rainfall condition with a return period of 20 years is an embodiment of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model;

[0074] Fig. 9 The displacement cloud map of the landslide under the rainfall condition with a return period of 50 years is an embodiment of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model;

[0075] Fig.10 The displacement cloud map of the landslide under the rainfall condition of 100 years is an embodiment of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model;

[0076] Fig.11 The annual instability probability of active slopes with different service times is an embodiment of a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model;

[0077] Fig.12 An embodiment of a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model is Liangtian substation landslide-substation three-dimensional model;

[0078] Fig.13 It is an embodiment of a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model, a numerical model of landslide in Liangtian substation;

[0079] Fig.14 The Liangtian substation model is an embodiment of a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model;

[0080] Fig.15 The monitoring point arrangement of various equipments in Liangtian substation is an embodiment of the landslide risk assessment method based on substation failure model;

[0081] Fig.16 This is an implementation example of a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model, including displacement cloud maps of Liangtian substation under various rainfall conditions and a substation zoning map. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0082] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0083] In the following description, many specific details are set forth to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may also be implemented in other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art may make similar generalizations without violating the connotation of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0084] Secondly, the term "one embodiment" or "embodiment" as used herein refers to a specific feature, structure, or characteristic that may be included in at least one implementation of the present invention. The term "in one embodiment" that appears in different places in this specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor is it a separate or selective embodiment that is mutually exclusive with other embodiments.

[0085] Example 1

[0086] Reference Figure 1-2 , which is the first embodiment of the present invention, and provides a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model, comprising:

[0087] S100: Conduct detailed investigation on the substation landslide, identify the geological conditions and instability characteristics of the landslide area, and obtain the physical and mechanical properties of the rock and soil through on-site investigation data and indoor tests;

[0088] S101: Conduct a detailed survey of the substation landslide, which may include conducting a detailed survey of the substation landslide to identify the geological conditions of the landslide area;

[0089] The instability mechanism of the substation is analyzed using the on-site monitoring data, and the on-site rock and soil are collected for indoor tests to determine the natural parameters required for the numerical simulation of substation landslides.

[0090] S200: The seepage characteristics of rock and soil are calculated using the rainfall infiltration hydrological model, the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions is evaluated using FLAC3D software, and the annual instability probability of landslides is calculated using the Monte Carlo method. The annual instability probability of substation landslides is used as a hazard evaluation indicator for landslides.

[0091] S201: Calculate the seepage characteristics of rock and soil using the rainfall infiltration hydrological model, which can be done in the following steps:

[0092] Simplified rainfall infiltration model to calculate rainfall infiltration depth under different working conditions;

[0093] The stability of substation landslides under different rainfall conditions was evaluated by simulation using FLAC3D software;

[0094] The instability probability of substation landslide is obtained by using FLAC3D numerical simulation software combined with the Monte Carlo method, and the annual instability probability of landslide is calculated by combining the conditional probability calculation method. The annual instability probability of substation landslide is used as the hazard evaluation index of landslide.

[0095] S202: Use the rainfall infiltration hydrological model to calculate the seepage characteristics of the rock and soil mass, and use FLAC3D software to simulate and evaluate the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions. The following steps can be used:

[0096] According to the landslide risk assessment specification and the local rainfall threshold, determine the rainfall conditions for landslide risk assessment, and consult the local hydrological manual to obtain the rainfall for the design conditions:

[0097]

[0098] Among them, H P Calculate rainfall for 24-hour design for each operating condition; is the average surface rainfall, K p is the modulus ratio coefficient, and its value is similar to C s / C v The ratio of C s is the skewness coefficient, C v is the coefficient of variation, and C can be determined s / C v ratio, you can obtain K by looking up Appendix 6-1 in the local hydrological manual p value;

[0099] The elevation data and DEM data of the site were obtained by using UAV 3D oblique photography, and the 3D geological model was established using the obtained contour lines and Rhino software;

[0100] The Green-Ampt model is introduced in the numerical calculation process, and the rock and soil above the wetting front is considered to be in a saturated state. Therefore, in the numerical model, saturated parameters are used to calculate the rock and soil above the wetting front, and natural parameters are used for the rock and soil below the wetting front.

[0101] Different rainfall conditions are represented by different infiltration depths:

[0102]

[0103] In the formula, y is the infiltration depth; t is the rainfall duration, which is 1 day in the calculation; q is the rainfall intensity, in mm / d; α is the slope gradient; ω s is the saturated moisture content, ω i is the initial moisture content;

[0104] Obtain the rock and soil parameters required for numerical simulation based on collected data or indoor tests;

[0105] The substation landslide was numerically simulated using FLAC3D software combined with the above-mentioned rock and soil parameters. The stability coefficient of the landslide under different rainfall conditions was obtained to evaluate the stability of the substation landslide.

[0106] S203: Utilize FLAC3D numerical simulation software combined with Monte Carlo method to obtain the instability probability of the Liangtian substation landslide and combine it with the conditional probability calculation method to calculate the annual instability probability of the landslide. The annual instability probability of the substation landslide is used as the hazard evaluation index of the landslide. The following steps can be used:

[0107] The probability of landslide instability of substation is calculated by FLAC3D-Monte Carlo coupling simulation method.

[0108] The Monte Carlo statistical method follows the Bernoulli law of large numbers. When the number of simulations in FLAC3D is large enough, the frequency of satisfying the conditions can be approximately equal to the failure probability of the landslide. From this, the failure probability of the landslide can be obtained, which can be expressed as follows:

[0109]

[0110]

[0111] P f =1-Φ(β)

[0112] in, is the random number in the stability equation; P f is the frequency of the stability coefficient F being less than 1; M is the number of times F≤1 is satisfied, and N is the number of simulations;

[0113] The shear parameters of the substation landslide, cohesion c and internal friction angle, are used in the numerical simulation process. Random number X as stability equation;

[0114] Saturated shear strength of sliding body The random number calling package in MATLAB software is used to generate random numbers that conform to the distribution of the state variable function G(Fs). The shear strength of the sliding soil under saturated state is Value random number parameter;

[0115] The possibility of landslide instability can be preliminarily determined based on the calculated landslide instability probability;

[0116] In the previous article, the FLAC3D-Monte Carlo simulation method calculated the instability probability of the landslide. However, the landslide risk assessment needs to consider the time scale, otherwise it will affect the accuracy of the landslide risk assessment. According to the references, the time scale is determined to be years.

[0117] Therefore, the probability of landslide occurrence can be expressed as an annual probability. Using the conditional probability calculation formula, the annual instability probability of rainfall-type landslide can be calculated, which can be expressed as follows:

[0118] P[B|A]=P[AB] / P[A]

[0119] P[AB]=P[B|A]×P[A]

[0120] Among them, P[A] is the probability of occurrence of rainfall conditions, which is generally expressed by the rainfall return period T. The occurrence of rainfall conditions and the rainfall return period T have the following corresponding relationship, that is, P[A] = 1 / T; P[B|A] is the conditional probability of landslide occurrence under rainfall conditions, that is, the obtained landslide instability probability P f , P[AB] is the probability of a certain rainfall condition occurring together with a landslide event, that is, the joint probability of A and B;

[0121] According to the calculation results of the above formula and the semi-quantitative standard of danger corresponding to the range of landslide probability values ​​in different years, the danger level within the range of instability probability in different years can be divided.

[0122] S300: FLAC3D is used to simulate the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process, the vulnerability of various facilities is determined, and the economic loss of the substation under various working conditions is obtained using the risk calculation formula to realize the landslide risk assessment of the substation.

[0123] S301: Use FLAC3D to simulate the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process, set the vulnerability of various facilities, and use the risk calculation formula to obtain the economic loss of the substation under various working conditions to achieve the landslide risk assessment of the substation. It can be mainly divided into the following steps:

[0124] Use FLAC3D software to simulate the landslide instability process of the substation, summarize the deformation and damage process of various facilities inside the substation, and summarize the damage models of various facilities;

[0125] The damage standards for various types of facilities were established using existing industry specifications. Finally, a dimensionless value between 0 and 1 was used to represent the vulnerability of each facility, and a vulnerability assessment model for substation landslides was established.

[0126] S302: Use FLAC3D software to simulate the landslide instability process of the substation, summarize the deformation and damage process of various facilities inside the substation, and summarize the damage model of various facilities using the following steps:

[0127] Using Rhino software, excavation was carried out on the basis of the original 3D geological model, and various substation facility models were established within the excavation range, and finally a landslide-substation model was obtained;

[0128] The defect of the grid division function of Rhino software is that the landslide-substation model grid is divided into a unified grid size by default. However, the unified grid division cannot show the difference between the two models, which will affect the accuracy of the numerical simulation results. Therefore, it is necessary to divide the landslide-substation grid by difference.

[0129] Import the grid division file into FLAC3D to obtain the landslide-substation numerical model. The grid division file is in .f3grid file format.

[0130] In order to better monitor the deformation curves of various facilities in the landslide-substation numerical model, it is necessary to monitor the displacement of each part of each type of facility;

[0131] The deformation and damage process of each device in the substation is analyzed based on the calculation results of numerical analysis, and the deformation mechanism of each device is obtained by combining the above monitoring data curve analysis;

[0132] In order to quantitatively describe the vulnerability of each facility in the substation, it is necessary to determine the failure criteria of each facility in the substation. Based on the existing various specifications and power industry standards, the damage criteria of concrete poles, control rooms and transformer foundations in the substation are collected and sorted out;

[0133] At present, damage criteria for three types of equipment commonly found in substations are proposed;

[0134] Concrete poles are mainly deformed by tilt, so the tilt is used as its damage index. The tilt can be represented by the relative displacement between the top and the bottom / pole height;

[0135] The control room is mainly tilted due to uneven displacement of the base, so the overall tilt rate is used as its damage index. The overall tilt rate can be expressed as the cumulative settlement difference between any two adjacent points of the four corners divided by the horizontal distance between the two points;

[0136] The transformer foundation is mainly damaged by concrete cracking caused by uneven settlement of the base, so the uneven settlement ratio of the transformer foundation is used as its damage index. The uneven settlement ratio can be expressed as the maximum settlement / foundation height;

[0137] According to the destruction criteria of the above-mentioned facilities, a damage assessment model for various facilities in the substation is established. It is determined that when the equipment in the substation is intact and can be used, its vulnerability is 0. When the equipment in the substation reaches the destruction standard, its vulnerability is determined to be 1. When the status of various equipment is between deformation and destruction, the above-mentioned destruction criteria are used to determine the vulnerability of its status through linear interpolation.

[0138] Furthermore, this embodiment also provides a landslide risk assessment system based on a substation failure model, comprising:

[0139] The acquisition module conducts a detailed survey of the substation landslide, identifies the geological conditions and instability characteristics of the landslide area, and obtains the physical and mechanical properties of the rock and soil through on-site survey data and indoor tests;

[0140] Evaluation module, using rainfall infiltration hydrological model to calculate rock and soil seepage characteristics, using FLAC3D software to simulate the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions, and combining Monte Carlo method to calculate the annual instability probability of landslides, using the annual instability probability of substation landslides as a landslide hazard evaluation indicator;

[0141] The output module uses FLAC3D to simulate the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process, sets the vulnerability of various facilities, and uses the risk calculation formula to obtain the economic loss of the substation under various working conditions, thereby realizing the landslide risk assessment of the substation.

[0142] This embodiment also provides a computer device, which is applicable to the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model, and includes a memory and a processor; the memory is used to store computer executable instructions, and the processor is used to execute the computer executable instructions to implement the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model proposed in the above embodiment.

[0143] The computer device may be a terminal, and the computer device includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, a display screen and an input device connected via a system bus. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal in a wired or wireless manner, and the wireless manner can be achieved through WIFI, an operator network, NFC (near field communication) or other technologies. The display screen of the computer device may be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer device may be a touch layer covering the display screen, or a key, trackball or touchpad provided on the housing of the computer device, or an external keyboard, touchpad or mouse, etc.

[0144] This embodiment further provides a storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model as proposed in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0145] In summary, by conducting a detailed survey of the substation landslide and obtaining the physical and mechanical properties of the rock and soil, accurate basic data is provided for subsequent risk assessment. This step can improve the accuracy and reliability of the entire assessment process.

[0146] The rainfall infiltration hydrological model and FLAC3D software were used to simulate the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions, and the annual instability probability was calculated using the Monte Carlo method, thus achieving a quantitative evaluation of landslide hazard. Compared with traditional qualitative or semi-quantitative evaluation methods, this method greatly improves the scientificity and accuracy of the evaluation results.

[0147] By simulating the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process with FLAC3D, and determining the vulnerability of various facilities, the quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of substation equipment is achieved. This step helps to accurately assess the specific impact that landslides may have on various types of substation equipment.

[0148] Combining the above steps, the economic losses of the substation under various working conditions are finally obtained, and a comprehensive evaluation of the landslide risk of the substation is achieved. This provides a scientific basis for the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation measures and emergency plans.

[0149] This method takes into account multiple key factors such as rainfall infiltration, landslide stability, and substation equipment vulnerability, and constructs a systematic risk assessment model. Compared with the evaluation method that only considers a single factor, this method can more comprehensively reflect the landslide risk.

[0150] By introducing the Monte Carlo method, the method can take into account the uncertainty of parameters and improve the reliability of the evaluation results.

[0151] This method proposes specific damage criteria and vulnerability calculation formulas for common equipment in substations (such as concrete poles, control rooms, transformer foundations, etc.), making the evaluation results more in line with actual conditions.

[0152] This method not only takes into account the probability of landslide occurrence, but also the probability of rainfall. Through conditional probability calculation, a more reasonable annual instability probability is obtained, which improves the accuracy of risk assessment.

[0153] This method can be applied to different rainfall conditions (such as once in 10 years, once in 20 years, etc.), and can evaluate the risk status under different scenarios to provide support for long-term planning and emergency management.

[0154] The entire evaluation process uses a variety of advanced software tools (such as Rhino, FLAC3D, MATLAB, etc.) to improve calculation efficiency and accuracy.

[0155] In summary, this invention achieves a comprehensive, quantitative and accurate assessment of the landslide risk of substations by systematically integrating multiple technical means such as geological surveys, hydrological models, numerical simulations, and statistical methods. This method can not only be applied to the risk assessment of a single substation, but can also be extended to the risk assessment of other similar power facilities in mountainous areas, which is of great significance for improving the safety and reliability of mountainous power grids. At the same time, the ideas and framework of this method can also provide a reference for other types of geological disaster risk assessments.

[0156] Example 2

[0157] Reference Figure 3 - Fig.16 , which is the second embodiment of the present invention, and this embodiment provides a landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model. In order to verify the beneficial effects of the present invention, scientific demonstration is carried out through economic benefit calculation and simulation experiments.

[0158] The process of the present invention is as shown in the attached Figure 1 As shown, the specific steps include:

[0159] S100. Conduct detailed investigation on the substation landslide, identify the geological conditions and instability characteristics of the landslide area, and obtain the physical and mechanical properties of the rock and soil through on-site investigation data and indoor tests;

[0160] S200, using rainfall infiltration hydrological model to calculate rock and soil seepage characteristics; using FLAC3D software to simulate and evaluate the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions, and combining the Monte Carlo method to calculate the annual instability probability of landslides, and using the annual instability probability of substation landslides as a hazard evaluation indicator of landslides;

[0161] S300. Use FLAC3D to simulate the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process, set the vulnerability of various facilities, and use the risk calculation formula to obtain the economic loss of the substation under various working conditions, so as to realize the landslide risk assessment of the substation.

[0162] To better explain the present invention, the following is further described in conjunction with the landslide of Liangtian substation in the embodiment:

[0163] Affected by the rainfall in Guizhou, collapse and cracks appeared near the Liangtian substation in Liangtian Town, Zhenning, Anshun City, Guizhou Province. There are 4 signs of deformation in the landslide area; three obvious cracks are seen on the sliding body. The crack tension width is about 20-30cm, the extension length is about 50cm, and the visible depth is about 20cm. On the right side of the house on the sliding body, the foundation of the stairs has settled by about 8cm, which caused the stairs of the self-built house to settle; the outer wall of the house has tilted by nearly 5cm; on the left side of the Liangtian substation, there are many irregular feather-shaped cracks that are almost parallel, with a spacing of about 20cm. Due to a certain degree of deformation between the highway and the substation, the Liangtian Town Government built a two-step mortar masonry retaining wall on the highway. A crack that penetrates the retaining wall appeared at the first retaining wall, and the second retaining wall has masonry collapse and retaining wall cracking. These phenomena have seriously affected the normal use of the Liangtian substation.

[0164] The above step S100 is to conduct a detailed survey of the substation landslide, find out the geological conditions and instability characteristics of the landslide area, and obtain the physical and mechanical properties of the rock and soil through on-site survey data and indoor tests;

[0165] Wherein, the S100 includes:

[0166] S101, conduct detailed investigation on the Liangtian substation landslide to identify the geological conditions of the Liangtian substation landslide area; preliminarily analyze and obtain the instability mechanism of the Liangtian substation landslide.

[0167] S102, using the on-site monitoring data to analyze the instability mechanism of the substation, collecting on-site rock and soil for indoor testing to determine the natural parameters required for numerical simulation of substation landslide;

[0168] Wherein, the S200 includes:

[0169] S201, simplified rainfall infiltration model to calculate rainfall infiltration depth under different working conditions, the specific infiltration depth is shown in the attached Figure 3 As shown;

[0170] According to the landslide risk assessment specification and the local rainfall threshold, the rainfall conditions for landslide risk assessment are determined. The rainfall for design conditions is obtained by consulting the local hydrological manual, and the design rainfall for the Liangtian substation landslide can be determined based on this.

[0171]

[0172] Among them, H P Calculate rainfall for 24-hour design for each operating condition; is the average surface rainfall, K p is the modulus ratio coefficient, and its value is similar to C s / C v The ratio of Cs is the skewness coefficient, C v is the coefficient of variation, and C can be determined s / C v ratio, you can obtain K by looking up Appendix 6-1 in the Manual p value.

[0173] Table 3. Rainfall under different rainfall conditions in Liangtian substation landslide

[0174] Rainfall condition (T) Average rainfall <![CDATA[Modulus ratio coefficient K p > Rainfall (mm) Once in 10 years 125 1.192 139.9 Once in 20 years 125 1.3176 164.7 Once in 50 years 125 1.5792 197.4 Once in 100 years 125 1.7776 222.2

[0175] S203: Use FLAC3D software to simulate the instability state of the Liangtian substation landslide under different rainfall conditions, and use the stability coefficient parameter to evaluate the stability of the Liangtian substation landslide;

[0176] The elevation data and DEM data of the Liangtian substation landslide were obtained by using UAV 3D oblique photography. The obtained contour lines were used to build a 3D geological model using Rhino software (see attached). Figure 2 The numerical model of the Liangtian substation landslide was obtained by importing it into FLAC3D software as shown in the attached figure. Figure 3 As shown;

[0177] The Green-Ampt model is introduced in the numerical calculation process as shown in the attached Figure 4 As shown in the figure, the rock and soil mass above the wetting front is considered to be in a saturated state. Therefore, in the numerical model, saturated parameters are used to calculate the rock and soil mass above the wetting front, and natural parameters are used for the rock and soil mass below the wetting front.

[0178] Different infiltration depths are used to represent different rainfall conditions.

[0179]

[0180] Where y is the infiltration depth; t is the rainfall duration, which is 1 day in the calculation; q is the rainfall intensity, in mm / d; α is the slope gradient; ω s is the saturated moisture content, ω i is the initial moisture content.

[0181] Table 4 Infiltration depth under different rainfall conditions

[0182]

[0183]

[0184] The rock and soil parameters required for numerical simulation are obtained based on collected data or indoor tests.

[0185] Table 5 Rock and soil parameters

[0186]

[0187] The substation landslide was numerically simulated using FLAC3D software combined with the above-mentioned rock and soil parameters. The stability coefficient of the landslide under different rainfall conditions was obtained to evaluate the stability of the substation landslide.

[0188] Table 6 Stability of landslide under different working conditions

[0189] Working conditions Stability coefficient steady state Natural conditions 1.56 Stablize 10-year rainfall condition 1.28 Stablize 20-year rainfall condition 1.082 Stablize 50-year rainfall condition 1.023 Stablize 100-year rainfall condition 0.988 Unstable

[0190] It is stable under natural conditions; stable under 10-year rainfall conditions; stable under 20-year rainfall conditions; stable under 50-year rainfall conditions; unstable under 100-year rainfall conditions. The stability calculation results are shown in the attached Figure 5 Attached Fig.10 shown.

[0191] S203: Using FLAC3D numerical simulation software combined with the Monte Carlo method to obtain the instability probability of the Liangtian substation landslide, and combining it with the conditional probability calculation method to calculate the annual instability probability of the landslide, the annual instability probability of the substation landslide is used as a hazard evaluation index of the landslide;

[0192] The probability of landslide instability of substation is calculated by FLAC3D-Monte Carlo coupling simulation method.

[0193] The Monte Carlo statistical method follows the Bernoulli law of large numbers. When the number of simulations in FLAC3D is large enough, the frequency of meeting the conditions can be approximately equal to the failure probability of the landslide, thereby obtaining the failure probability of the landslide.

[0194]

[0195] P f =1-Φ(β)

[0196] in, is the random number in the stability equation; P f is the frequency of the stability coefficient F being less than 1; M is the number of times F≤1 is satisfied, and N is the number of simulations;

[0197] The shear parameters of the substation landslide, cohesion c and internal friction angle, are used in the numerical simulation process. Random number X as stability equation;

[0198] Saturated shear strength of sliding body The random number calling package in MATLAB software is used to generate random numbers that conform to the distribution of the state variable function G(Fs). The shear strength of the sliding soil under saturated state is Value random number parameter;

[0199] Table 7 Sliding soil Value Random Number

[0200]

[0201] The possibility of landslide instability can be preliminarily determined based on the calculated landslide instability probability.

[0202] Table 8 Instability probability of landslide under different working conditions

[0203]

[0204] In the previous article, the FLAC3D-Monte Carlo simulation method was used to calculate the instability probability of the landslide. However, the landslide risk assessment needs to consider the time scale, otherwise it will affect the accuracy of the landslide risk assessment. According to the reference, the time scale is determined to be years.

[0205] Therefore, the probability of landslide occurrence can be expressed as annual probability. Since this paper focuses on the instability probability of rainfall-type landslides, it is necessary to consider the probability of rainfall in the area. Using the conditional probability calculation formula, the annual instability probability of rainfall-type landslides can be calculated.

[0206] P[B|A]=P[AB] / P[A]

[0207] P[AB]=P[B|A]×P[A]

[0208] Among them, P[A] is the probability of occurrence of rainfall conditions, which is generally expressed by the rainfall return period T. The occurrence of rainfall conditions and the rainfall return period T have the following corresponding relationship, that is, P[A] = 1 / T; P[B|A] is the conditional probability of landslide occurrence under rainfall conditions, that is, the obtained landslide instability probability P f , P[AB] is the probability of a certain rainfall condition occurring together with a landslide event, that is, the joint probability of A and B. Since the natural condition is not unstable, the annual instability probability of the natural condition needs to be considered separately, as shown in the attached Fig.11 shown.

[0209] Table 9 Annual probability of instability due to landslide at Liangtian substation

[0210]

[0211] According to the calculation results of the above formula and the semi-quantitative standard of danger corresponding to the range of landslide probability values ​​in different years, the danger level within the range of instability probability in different years can be divided.

[0212] Table 10 Semi-quantitative hazard standards corresponding to different annual probability ranges of landslides

[0213]

[0214]

[0215] Wherein, the S300 includes:

[0216] S301: Use FLAC3D software to simulate the landslide instability process of the substation, summarize the deformation and damage process of various facilities inside the substation, and propose summary damage models for various facilities;

[0217] The damage standards for various types of facilities were established using existing industry specifications. Finally, a dimensionless value between 0 and 1 was used to represent the vulnerability of each facility, and a vulnerability assessment model for substation landslides was established.

[0218] Wherein, the S301 includes:

[0219] Rhino software was used to excavate the 3D geological model of the original Liangtian substation landslide, and various substation facility models were established within the excavation range. Finally, the landslide-substation model was obtained, as shown in the attached figure. Fig.12 shown.

[0220] The defect of the grid division function of Rhino software is that the landslide-substation model grid is divided into a unified grid size by default. However, the unified grid division cannot show the difference between the two models, which will affect the accuracy of the numerical simulation results. Therefore, it is necessary to divide the landslide-substation grid differentially.

[0221] Import the gridding file into FLAC3D to obtain the landslide-substation numerical model. The gridding file is in the .f3grid file format, as shown in the attached file. Fig.13 The substation model is shown in the attached Fig.14 shown.

[0222] To better monitor the deformation curves of various facilities in the landslide-substation numerical model, it is necessary to monitor the displacement of each part of each type of facility. The specific monitoring conditions are shown in the attached figure. Fig.15 shown.

[0223] The deformation and damage process of each device in the substation is analyzed based on the calculation results of numerical analysis, and the deformation mechanism of each device is obtained by combining the above monitoring data curve analysis.

[0224] In order to quantitatively describe the vulnerability of each facility in the substation, it is necessary to determine the failure criteria of each facility in the substation. Based on the existing various specifications and power industry standards, the damage criteria of concrete poles, control rooms and transformer foundations in the substation are collected and sorted.

[0225] At present, destruction criteria for three common types of equipment in substations have been proposed.

[0226] Concrete poles are mainly deformed by tilt, so the tilt is used as its damage index. The tilt can be represented by the relative displacement between the top and the bottom / pole height;

[0227] The control room is mainly tilted due to uneven displacement of the base, so the overall tilt rate is used as its damage index. The overall tilt rate can be expressed as the cumulative settlement difference between any two adjacent points of the four corners divided by the horizontal distance between the two points;

[0228] The transformer foundation is mainly damaged by concrete tensile cracking caused by uneven settlement of the base. Therefore, the uneven settlement ratio of the transformer foundation is used as its damage index. The uneven settlement ratio can be expressed as the maximum settlement / foundation height.

[0229] Table 11 Deformation and failure criteria of concrete poles

[0230] <![CDATA[Inclination θ1]]> <![CDATA[θ1≤2 / 1000]]> <![CDATA[2 / 1000<θ1≤15 / 1000]]> <![CDATA[θ1>15 / 1000]]> Performance Level Facilities in normal use Deformation-Destruction Stage Dump

[0231] Table 12 Deformation and failure criteria for control room

[0232] <![CDATA[Overall tilt rate θ2]]> <![CDATA[θ2≤2 / 1000]]> <![CDATA[2 / 1000<θ2≤30 / 1000]]> <![CDATA[θ2>30 / 1000]]> Performance Level Facilities in normal use Deformation-Destruction Stage destroy

[0233] Table 13 Transformer foundation damage criteria

[0234] Uneven settlement ratio α α≤2 / 1000 2‰<α≤20‰ α>20 / 1000 Performance Level Facilities in normal use Deformation-Destruction Stage destroy

[0235] Based on the destruction criteria of the above-mentioned facilities, a damage assessment model for various facilities in the substation is established. It is determined that when the equipment in the substation is intact and can be used, its vulnerability is 0. When the equipment in the substation reaches the destruction standard, its vulnerability is determined to be 1. When the status of various equipment is between deformation and destruction, the above-mentioned destruction criteria are used to determine the vulnerability of its status through linear interpolation.

[0236] The above damage criteria are used to determine the vulnerability of the state through linear interpolation. The final vulnerability value calculation of each facility in the substation is shown in the following expression:

[0237] The calculation formula of pole vulnerability value is:

[0238]

[0239] The formula for calculating the vulnerability value of the control room is:

[0240]

[0241] Transformer foundation vulnerability value calculation formula:

[0242]

[0243] The risk evaluation results of the Liangtian substation landslide were obtained through the risk calculation formula. The evaluation results are shown in the attached Fig.16 shown.

[0244] Through the above steps S100, S200, S300, the substation type landslide risk assessment result can be obtained. The invention has a reasonable concept, a simple operation process, and good feasibility. The risk assessment results based on the substation deformation and damage model can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and mitigation of geological disasters and emergency rescue work in mountainous areas.

[0245] It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should all be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model, characterized in that: include, Conduct a survey on the substation landslide, identify the geological conditions and instability characteristics of the landslide area, and obtain the physical and mechanical properties of the rock and soil through on-site survey data and indoor tests; The rainfall infiltration hydrological model was used to calculate the seepage characteristics of rock and soil, and the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions was evaluated using FLAC3D software. The annual instability probability of landslides was calculated using the Monte Carlo method, and the annual instability probability of substation landslides was used as a hazard evaluation indicator for landslides. FLAC3D is used to simulate the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process, and the vulnerability of various facilities is determined. The economic loss of the substation under various working conditions is obtained using the risk calculation formula to realize the substation landslide risk assessment.

2. The landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The said investigation of the substation landslide may include the following steps: investigating the substation landslide to find out the geological conditions of the landslide area; The instability mechanism of the substation is analyzed using the on-site monitoring data, and the on-site rock and soil are collected for indoor tests to determine the natural parameters required for the numerical simulation of substation landslides.

3. The landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The calculation of rock and soil seepage characteristics using the rainfall infiltration hydrological model can be carried out in the following steps: Simplified rainfall infiltration model to calculate rainfall infiltration depth under different working conditions; The stability of substation landslides under different rainfall conditions was evaluated by simulation using FLAC3D software; The instability probability of substation landslide is obtained by using FLAC3D numerical simulation software combined with the Monte Carlo method. The annual instability probability of landslide is calculated by combining the conditional probability calculation method. The annual instability probability of substation landslide is used as the hazard evaluation index of landslide.

4. The landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The rainfall infiltration hydrological model is used to calculate the seepage characteristics of the rock and soil mass, and the stability of the landslide under different rainfall conditions is evaluated by simulating using FLAC3D software, wherein the following steps can be adopted: According to the landslide risk assessment specification and the local rainfall threshold, determine the rainfall conditions for landslide risk assessment, and consult the local hydrological manual to obtain the rainfall for the design conditions: Among them, H P Calculate rainfall for 24-hour design for each operating condition; is the average surface rainfall, K p is the modulus ratio coefficient, and its value is similar to C s / C v The ratio of C s is the skewness coefficient, C v is the coefficient of variation, and C can be determined s / C v ratio, obtain K by consulting the local hydrological manual p value; Use UAV 3D oblique photography to obtain elevation data and DEM data on site, and use the obtained contour lines to bring them into Rhino software to build a 3D geological model; The Green-Ampt model is introduced in the numerical calculation process, and the rock and soil above the wetting front is considered to be in a saturated state. Therefore, in the numerical model, saturated parameters are used to calculate the rock and soil above the wetting front, and natural parameters are used for the rock and soil below the wetting front. Different rainfall conditions are represented by different infiltration depths: In the formula, y is the infiltration depth; t is the rainfall duration, which is 1 day in the calculation; q is the rainfall intensity, in mm / d; α is the slope gradient; ω s is the saturated moisture content, ω i is the initial moisture content; Obtain the rock and soil parameters required for numerical simulation based on collected data or indoor tests; The substation landslide was numerically simulated using FLAC3D software combined with the above-mentioned rock and soil parameters. The stability coefficient of the landslide under different rainfall conditions was obtained to evaluate the stability of the substation landslide.

5. The landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The instability probability of the Liangtian substation landslide is obtained by using the FLAC3D numerical simulation software combined with the Monte Carlo method, and the annual instability probability of the landslide is calculated by combining the conditional probability calculation method. The annual instability probability of the substation landslide is used as a hazard evaluation index of the landslide. The following steps can be used: The probability of landslide instability of substation is calculated by FLAC3D-Monte Carlo coupling simulation method. When simulating multiple times in FLAC3D, the frequency of meeting the conditions is equal to the failure probability of the landslide. The failure probability of the landslide can be obtained using the following expression: P f =1-Φ(β) in, is the random number in the stability equation; P f is the frequency of the stability coefficient F being less than 1; M is the number of times F ≤ 1 is satisfied, and N is the number of simulations; The shear parameters cohesion and internal friction angle of the substation landslide in the numerical simulation process are used as the random number X of the stability equation; The saturated shear strength and internal friction angle of the sliding body are generated by using the random number call package in MATLAB software to generate random numbers that conform to the distribution of the state variable function G(Fs). The random number parameters of the shear strength and internal friction angle of the sliding body soil under the saturated state are: The possibility of landslide instability can be preliminarily determined based on the calculated landslide instability probability; The instability probability of landslides is calculated based on the FLAC3D-Monte Carlo simulation method. The landslide hazard risk assessment also includes the time scale, which is determined to be years according to references; Therefore, the probability of landslide occurrence is expressed in annual probability. The annual instability probability of rainfall-type landslide is calculated using the conditional probability calculation formula, which can be expressed as follows: P[B|A]=P[AB] / P[A] P[AB]=P[B|A]×P[A] Among them, P[A] is the probability of occurrence of rainfall conditions, which is generally expressed by the rainfall return period T. The occurrence of rainfall conditions and the rainfall return period T have the following corresponding relationship, that is, P[A] = 1 / T; P[B|A] is the conditional probability of landslide occurrence under rainfall conditions, that is, the obtained landslide instability probability P f , P[AB] is the probability of a certain rainfall condition occurring together with a landslide event, that is, the joint probability of A and B; According to the calculation results of the above formula and the semi-quantitative standard of danger corresponding to the range of landslide probability values ​​in different years, the danger level within the range of instability probability in different years can be divided.

6. The landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process is obtained by FLAC3D simulation, the vulnerability of various facilities is determined, and the economic loss of the substation under various working conditions is obtained by using the risk calculation formula, and the substation landslide risk assessment is obtained, which can be mainly divided into the following steps: According to the simulation of the landslide instability process of the substation by FLAC3D software, the deformation and damage process of various facilities inside the substation were obtained, and the damage models of various facilities were summarized; The damage standards for various types of facilities were established using existing industry specifications. Finally, a dimensionless value between 0 and 1 was used to represent the vulnerability of each facility, and a vulnerability assessment model for substation landslides was established.

7. The landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The FLAC3D software simulates the landslide instability process of the substation, summarizes the deformation and damage process of various facilities inside the substation, and summarizes the damage model of various facilities using the following steps: Using Rhino software and based on the original 3D geological model, excavation was carried out, and various substation facility models were established within the excavation range, and finally a landslide-substation model was obtained; The defect of the grid division function of Rhino software is that the landslide-substation model grid is divided into a unified grid size by default. The difference between the landslide-substation grid is obtained by differential division of the landslide-substation grid and the accuracy of the numerical simulation results. Import the grid division file into FLAC3D to obtain the landslide-substation numerical model, wherein the grid division file is in the .f3grid file format; Monitor the displacement of each part of each type of facility and obtain the deformation curves of various types of facilities in the landslide-substation numerical model; The deformation and damage process of each device in the substation is analyzed based on the calculation results of numerical analysis, and the deformation mechanism of each device is obtained by combining the above monitoring data curve analysis; Determine the failure criteria of each facility in the substation, obtain a quantitative description of the vulnerability of each facility in the substation, and collect and organize the damage criteria of concrete poles, control rooms and transformer foundations in the substation based on various existing specifications and power industry standards; The destruction criteria of three common types of equipment in substations are proposed; Concrete poles are mainly deformed by tilt, so the tilt is used as its damage index. The tilt can be represented by the relative displacement between the top and the bottom / pole height; The control room is mainly tilted due to uneven displacement of the base, so the overall tilt rate is used as its damage index. The overall tilt rate can be represented by the cumulative settlement difference between any two adjacent points of the four corners divided by the horizontal distance between the two points; The transformer foundation is mainly damaged by concrete cracking caused by uneven settlement of the base, so the uneven settlement ratio of the transformer foundation is used as its damage index. The uneven settlement ratio can be expressed as the maximum settlement / foundation height; According to the destruction criteria of the above-mentioned facilities, a damage assessment model for various facilities in the substation is established. It is determined that when the equipment in the substation is intact and can be used, its vulnerability is 0. When the equipment in the substation reaches the destruction standard, its vulnerability is determined to be 1. When the status of various equipment is between deformation and destruction, the above-mentioned destruction criteria are used to determine the vulnerability of its status through linear interpolation.

8. A landslide risk assessment system based on a substation failure model, based on the landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: Also includes, The acquisition module conducts survey on the substation landslide, identifies the geological conditions and instability characteristics of the landslide area, and obtains the physical and mechanical properties of the rock and soil through on-site survey data and indoor tests; Evaluation module, using rainfall infiltration hydrological model to calculate rock and soil seepage characteristics, using FLAC3D software to simulate the stability of landslides under different rainfall conditions, combining Monte Carlo method to calculate the annual instability probability of landslides, and using the annual instability probability of substation landslides as a landslide hazard evaluation indicator; The output module uses FLAC3D to simulate the deformation and damage model of various facilities in the substation during the landslide instability process, sets the vulnerability of various facilities, and uses the risk calculation formula to obtain the economic loss of the substation under various working conditions, thereby realizing the landslide risk assessment of the substation.

9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the landslide risk assessment method based on the substation failure model described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the landslide risk assessment method based on a substation failure model described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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