Power grid equipment early warning method and device based on cold wave path tracking

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power grid disaster prevention and reduction, and particularly provides a power grid equipment early warning method and device based on cold wave path tracking, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out the cold wave event recognition based on the numerical weather forecast data of a research region; determining a driving field of HYSPLIT mode three-dimensional trajectory simulation based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event; taking the selected mass point and the corresponding element information as the input of an HYSPLIT mode to carry out iterative calculation, and obtaining the displacement track of the mass point; and performing early warning on the power grid equipment in the research area based on the displacement track of the mass point. According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, cold wave path tracing and future moving direction prediction can be realized, early warning is given out to the power grid equipment in combination with the cold wave influence range and the cooling degree, and data support is provided for emergency command decision making.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power grid disaster prevention and mitigation, and in particular to a power grid equipment early warning method and device based on cold wave path tracking. Background Art

[0002] Cold waves refer to extreme low-temperature weather phenomena, which are usually accompanied by large-scale cold air invasions, causing a sharp drop in temperature and even long-lasting severe cold weather. For power grids, cold waves may have many impacts. First, extreme low temperatures may cause freezing, icing or damage to power equipment, such as wires and insulators, which in turn affects the normal operation of the power grid. Secondly, residents' demand for heating and electricity increases significantly during cold wave weather, causing a sharp increase in the load on the power grid, which puts tremendous pressure on the dispatching and operation decisions of the power grid. In addition, extreme cold weather may cause transmission lines to break or fail, which in turn causes large-scale power outages, affecting people's lives and work. Therefore, tracking the path of cold waves and determining the scope of cold wave impact can provide the power system with a basis for judging the coverage and impact of disasters, clarifying the areas where the power grid may be affected, and issuing early warnings in a timely manner, thereby ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system.

[0003] Existing cold wave identification and early warning technologies mostly rely on the measured temperature drop amplitude of station observation data, and use the vector addition method based on the relative position between stations to characterize the cold wave path. This has high requirements for the density of observation stations and data quality, making it difficult to carry out engineering applications. On the other hand, existing cold wave identification technologies mostly use horizontal meteorological elements for identification, without considering the impact of vertical wind speed on airflow direction under undulating terrain, which affects the accuracy of path identification.

[0004] For example: Patent CN117388950A, a method, device, storage medium and processor for determining a cold wave path, including: obtaining multiple meteorological observation data from meteorological stations in the target area, and calculating the meteorological deviation value of each meteorological observation data of each meteorological station on a preset date. Divide all meteorological stations into multiple meteorological station groups, select any group from them in turn, and extract N meteorological stations from other groups multiple times to construct multiple third meteorological station groups with the group. The third meteorological station group is divided multiple times according to the meteorological deviation value to determine the number of isolations corresponding to the preset date for each target meteorological station in the third meteorological station group after multiple divisions. Determine the cold wave score of each meteorological station on the preset date based on all the isolation times to determine the cold wave affected area and cold wave path in the target area on the preset date. The method of determining the cold wave affected area and the cold wave path on the preset date based on the location information of all the cold wave affected meteorological stations includes: determining the cold wave affected meteorological station and the cold wave affected area corresponding to the cold starting point in the cold wave affected area on the preset date based on the location information of all the cold wave affected meteorological stations; for each cold wave affected meteorological station, determining the vector between the cold wave affected meteorological station corresponding to the cold starting point and each remaining cold wave affected meteorological station; for each vector, determining the angle between the vector and each remaining vector; for each vector, determining the average value of all the angles; and determining the vector corresponding to the minimum value of all the average values ​​as the moving direction of the cold wave path, so as to determine the cold wave path.

[0005] However, this technical solution has the following defects:

[0006] (1) Dependence on station observation data. This method uses station observation values ​​to determine the cold wave threshold and calculate the cold wave path. It has high requirements on the density of observation stations and the quality of observation data, and is difficult to apply in areas with sparse observation stations.

[0007] (2) Using the relative position relationship of the stations to approximate the cold wave movement path. This method uses the mean of the vector angle to approximate the cold wave movement direction. The judgment result is greatly affected by the station distribution and cannot accurately reflect the cold air mass movement path.

[0008] (3) The current method infers the cold wave path from the temperature drop results, but cannot combine numerical forecast products to deduce the future development direction of the cold wave path. Summary of the invention

[0009] In order to overcome the above-mentioned defects, the present invention proposes a power grid equipment early warning method and device based on cold wave path tracing.

[0010] In a first aspect, a power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing is provided, and the power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing comprises:

[0011] Identify cold wave events based on numerical weather forecast data in the study area;

[0012] The driving field of the HYSPLIT model three-dimensional trajectory simulation is determined based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event;

[0013] The selected mass points and their corresponding element information are used as the input of the HYSPLIT model for iterative calculation to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points;

[0014] Based on the displacement trajectory of the particle, early warning is given to the power grid equipment in the study area.

[0015] Preferably, the cold wave event identification based on numerical weather forecast data of the study area includes:

[0016] The grid points corresponding to the numerical weather forecast data that meet the constraints are regarded as the cold wave event occurrence areas;

[0017] Taking the grid point corresponding to the maximum daily temperature drop as the center, the cold wave event areas with the same occurrence time and located within 1200km around the center are merged;

[0018] When more than 40% of the grid points in the study area are cold wave event areas, it is determined that a cold wave event has occurred in the study area;

[0019] Merge cold wave events whose intervals do not exceed the preset time.

[0020] Furthermore, the preset time is 3 days.

[0021] Furthermore, the constraint conditions include: the minimum temperature is below 4°C and the daily minimum temperature drops by more than 8°C within 24 hours, or by more than 10°C within 48 hours, or by more than 12°C within 72 hours.

[0022] Preferably, the determining of the driving field of the HYSPLIT model three-dimensional trajectory simulation based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event includes:

[0023] The numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event were converted into an arl file that can be read by the HYSPLIT model and used as the driving field for the three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model.

[0024] Furthermore, the conversion of the numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event into an arl file readable by the HYSPLIT model includes:

[0025] The mixed σ-pressure coordinate interpolation method is used to interpolate the numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event period to obtain NetCDF or Grib meteorological forecast field data;

[0026] The NetCDF or Grib weather forecast field data is input into the arw2arl.exe program provided by the HYSPLIT model to obtain an arl file that can be read by the HYSPLIT model.

[0027] Preferably, the process of selecting the particle includes: taking the grid point with the largest temperature drop in a single day when the cold wave event occurs as the particle.

[0028] Preferably, the element information corresponding to the particle includes: horizontal wind field, vertical wind field, temperature, altitude, air pressure, and surface air pressure.

[0029] Preferably, in the process of iterative calculation using the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as inputs of the HYSPLIT model, the integration time step satisfies: max △t<0.75, where U max is the maximum transport velocity of the particle at the last iterative calculation moment, and △t is the integration time step.

[0030] Preferably, the iterative calculation of the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as inputs of the HYSPLIT mode to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points includes:

[0031] Set the simulation time and perform backward integration in HYSPLIT mode to obtain the first displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0032] Set the simulation time and perform forward integration in HYSPLIT mode to obtain the second displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0033] Merging the first displacement trajectory and the second displacement trajectory to obtain a displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0034] Among them, the displacement trajectory of the particle is the displacement trajectory of the simulated time before and after the cold wave event occurs.

[0035] Preferably, the step of providing early warning to power grid equipment in the research area based on the displacement trajectory of the particle includes:

[0036] Determine a correction value of a cooling amplitude of the power grid equipment based on the displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0037] When the temperature drop correction value of the power grid equipment exceeds the preset threshold, it is determined that the power grid equipment has entered the cold wave impact range;

[0038] The distance between the location of the power grid equipment and the mass point is taken as the distance to the center of the cold wave, the time when the power grid equipment enters the affected area of ​​the cold wave is taken as the arrival time of the cold wave, the time when the power grid equipment leaves the affected area of ​​the cold wave is taken as the departure time of the cold wave, and the time between the arrival time of the cold wave and the departure time of the cold wave is taken as the impact duration of the cold wave;

[0039] The maximum temperature drop and the maximum wind speed at the location of the power grid equipment during the duration of the cold wave impact are taken as the intensity of the cold wave impact;

[0040] The distance from the center of the cold wave, the arrival time of the cold wave, the departure time of the cold wave, the duration of the cold wave impact and the intensity of the cold wave impact are used as warning factors.

[0041] Furthermore, the correction value of the temperature reduction amplitude of the power grid equipment is as follows:

[0042]

[0043] In the above formula, △T′ is the correction value of the cooling amplitude of the power grid equipment, △T 48 is the temperature drop of the power grid equipment within 48 hours, (x1, y1, z1) is the spatial position coordinate of the particle, and (x, y, z) is the spatial position coordinate of the power grid equipment.

[0044] Furthermore, the preset threshold is 0.03.

[0045] In a second aspect, a power grid equipment early warning device based on cold wave path tracing is provided, and the power grid equipment early warning device based on cold wave path tracing comprises:

[0046] Identification module, used to identify cold wave events based on numerical weather forecast data in the study area;

[0047] A determination module, for determining a driving field for a three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model based on numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event period;

[0048] The analysis module is used to use the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as the input of the HYSPLIT model to perform iterative calculations to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points;

[0049] The early warning module is used to issue early warning to the power grid equipment in the research area based on the displacement trajectory of the particle.

[0050] In a third aspect, a computer device is provided, comprising: one or more processors;

[0051] The processor is configured to execute one or more programs;

[0052] When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing is implemented.

[0053] In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed, the power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracking is implemented.

[0054] The above one or more technical solutions of the present invention have at least one or more of the following beneficial effects:

[0055] The present invention provides a method and device for early warning of power grid equipment based on cold wave path tracking, including: identifying cold wave events based on numerical weather forecast data of the study area; determining the driving field of the three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event; using the selected particles and their corresponding element information as the input of the HYSPLIT model for iterative calculation to obtain the displacement trajectory of the particles; and early warning the power grid equipment in the study area based on the displacement trajectory of the particles. The technical solution provided by the present invention realizes cold wave weather identification and movement path forecasting based on numerical weather forecast grid data, combines the cold wave identification algorithm with the forecast model, so that the algorithm is no longer limited to the site observation data, can realize the cold wave path tracing and future movement direction prediction, and issues early warnings to power grid equipment in combination with the cold wave impact range and temperature drop degree, providing data support for emergency command decision-making. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of main steps of a power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0057] The specific implementation modes of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0058] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0059] As disclosed in the background technology, cold waves refer to extreme low temperature weather phenomena, which are usually accompanied by large-scale invasions of cold air, resulting in a sharp drop in temperature and even long-lasting severe cold weather. For power grids, cold waves may have many impacts. First, extreme low temperatures may cause freezing, icing or damage to power equipment, such as wires and insulators, which in turn affects the normal operation of the power grid. Secondly, under cold wave weather, residents' demand for heating and electricity consumption increases significantly, resulting in a sharp increase in the load of the power grid, which puts tremendous pressure on the dispatching and operation decisions of the power grid. In addition, extremely cold weather may cause the breakage or failure of transmission lines, which in turn causes large-scale power outages, affecting people's lives and work. Therefore, tracking the path of cold waves and determining the scope of cold wave impact can provide the power system with a basis for judging the coverage and impact of disasters, clarifying the areas where the power grid may be affected, and issuing early warnings in a timely manner, thereby ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system.

[0060] Existing cold wave identification and early warning technologies mostly rely on the measured temperature drop amplitude of station observation data, and use the vector addition method based on the relative position between stations to characterize the cold wave path. This has high requirements for the density of observation stations and data quality, making it difficult to carry out engineering applications. On the other hand, existing cold wave identification technologies mostly use horizontal meteorological elements for identification, without considering the impact of vertical wind speed on airflow direction under undulating terrain, which affects the accuracy of path identification.

[0061] For example: Patent CN117388950A, a method, device, storage medium and processor for determining a cold wave path, including: obtaining multiple meteorological observation data from meteorological stations in the target area, and calculating the meteorological deviation value of each meteorological observation data of each meteorological station on a preset date. Divide all meteorological stations into multiple meteorological station groups, select any group from them in turn, and extract N meteorological stations from other groups multiple times to construct multiple third meteorological station groups with the group. The third meteorological station group is divided multiple times according to the meteorological deviation value to determine the number of isolations corresponding to the preset date for each target meteorological station in the third meteorological station group after multiple divisions. Determine the cold wave score of each meteorological station on the preset date based on all the isolation times to determine the cold wave affected area and cold wave path in the target area on the preset date. The method of determining the cold wave affected area and the cold wave path on the preset date based on the location information of all the cold wave affected meteorological stations includes: determining the cold wave affected meteorological station and the cold wave affected area corresponding to the cold starting point in the cold wave affected area on the preset date based on the location information of all the cold wave affected meteorological stations; for each cold wave affected meteorological station, determining the vector between the cold wave affected meteorological station corresponding to the cold starting point and each remaining cold wave affected meteorological station; for each vector, determining the angle between the vector and each remaining vector; for each vector, determining the average value of all the angles; and determining the vector corresponding to the minimum value of all the average values ​​as the moving direction of the cold wave path, so as to determine the cold wave path.

[0062] However, this technical solution has the following defects:

[0063] (1) Dependence on station observation data. This method uses station observation values ​​to determine the cold wave threshold and calculate the cold wave path. It has high requirements on the density of observation stations and the quality of observation data, and is difficult to apply in areas with sparse observation stations.

[0064] (2) Using the relative position relationship of the stations to approximate the cold wave movement path. This method uses the mean of the vector angle to approximate the cold wave movement direction. The judgment result is greatly affected by the station distribution and cannot accurately reflect the cold air mass movement path.

[0065] (3) The current method infers the cold wave path from the temperature drop results, but cannot combine numerical forecast products to deduce the future development direction of the cold wave path.

[0066] In order to improve the above problems, the present invention provides a method and device for early warning of power grid equipment based on cold wave path tracking, including: identifying cold wave events based on numerical weather forecast data in the study area; determining the driving field of the HYSPLIT model three-dimensional trajectory simulation based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event; using the selected particles and their corresponding element information as the input of the HYSPLIT model for iterative calculation to obtain the displacement trajectory of the particles; and early warning the power grid equipment in the study area based on the displacement trajectory of the particles. The technical solution provided by the present invention realizes cold wave weather identification and movement path forecasting based on numerical weather forecast grid data, combines the cold wave identification algorithm with the forecast model, so that the algorithm is no longer limited to the site observation data, can realize the cold wave path tracing and future movement direction prediction, and issue early warnings to power grid equipment in combination with the cold wave impact range and temperature drop degree, providing data support for emergency command decision-making.

[0067] The above scheme is described in detail below.

[0068] Example 1

[0069] See attached Figure 1 , Figure 1 FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the main steps of a method for early warning of power grid equipment based on cold wave path tracing according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing in the embodiment of the present invention mainly includes the following steps:

[0070] Step S101: identifying cold wave events based on numerical weather forecast data in the study area;

[0071] Step S102: determining a driving field for a three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model based on numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event period;

[0072] Step S103: using the selected mass point and its corresponding element information as input of the HYSPLIT model to perform iterative calculation to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass point;

[0073] Step S104: issuing an early warning to the power grid equipment in the study area based on the displacement trajectory of the particle.

[0074] In this embodiment, the cold wave event identification based on numerical weather forecast data of the study area includes:

[0075] The grid points corresponding to the numerical weather forecast data that meet the constraints are regarded as the cold wave event occurrence areas;

[0076] Taking the grid point corresponding to the maximum daily temperature drop as the center, the cold wave event areas with the same occurrence time and located within 1200km around the center are merged;

[0077] When more than 40% of the grid points in the study area are cold wave event areas, it is determined that a cold wave event has occurred in the study area;

[0078] Merge cold wave events whose intervals do not exceed the preset time.

[0079] Among them, the preset time is 3 days.

[0080] In one embodiment, a parameterization scheme with regional adaptability is designed based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) model, and the GFS data provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the United States is used as the initial field and boundary conditions of the WRF model. Combined with the observation data, the atmospheric background of the selected process is numerically simulated to output meteorological field forecast data.

[0081] In one embodiment, the constraint conditions include: the minimum temperature is below 4°C and the daily minimum temperature drops by more than 8°C within 24 hours, or by more than 10°C within 48 hours, or by more than 12°C within 72 hours.

[0082] Preferably, the determining of the driving field of the HYSPLIT model three-dimensional trajectory simulation based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event includes:

[0083] The numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event were converted into an arl file that can be read by the HYSPLIT model and used as the driving field for the three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model.

[0084] In one embodiment, the conversion of the numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event into an arl file readable by the HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) mode includes:

[0085] The mixed σ-pressure coordinate interpolation method is used to interpolate the numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event period to obtain NetCDF or Grib meteorological forecast field data;

[0086] The NetCDF or Grib weather forecast field data is input into the arw2arl.exe program provided by the HYSPLIT model to obtain an arl file that can be read by the HYSPLIT model.

[0087] In this embodiment, the process of selecting the mass points includes: taking the grid point with the largest temperature drop in a single day when the cold wave event occurs as the mass point.

[0088] Among them, the element information corresponding to the particle includes: horizontal wind field, vertical wind field, temperature, altitude, air pressure, and surface air pressure.

[0089] In this embodiment, in the process of iterative calculation using the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as the input of the HYSPLIT mode, the integration time step satisfies: max △t<0.75, where U max is the maximum transport velocity of the particle at the last iterative calculation moment, and △t is the integration time step.

[0090] In this embodiment, the selected mass points and their corresponding element information are used as inputs of the HYSPLIT mode for iterative calculation to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points, including:

[0091] Set the simulation time and perform backward integration in HYSPLIT mode to obtain the first displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0092] Set the simulation time and perform forward integration in HYSPLIT mode to obtain the second displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0093] Merging the first displacement trajectory and the second displacement trajectory to obtain a displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0094] Among them, the displacement trajectory of the particle is the displacement trajectory of the simulated time before and after the cold wave event occurs.

[0095] For example, by selecting HYSPLIT to integrate backward for 120 hours, the hourly spatial positions of particles 5 days before the outbreak of the cold wave can be obtained, which is the result of tracing the path of the cold wave. The path starts from the starting point and ends at the outbreak point of the cold wave.

[0096] Select HYSPLIT forward integration for 120 hours to obtain the hourly spatial position of the particle 5 days after the outbreak of the cold wave, which is the forecast result of the cold wave path. The path starts from the outbreak point of the cold wave and ends at the particle position 5 days later.

[0097] The trajectories are synthesized into the cold wave movement paths 10 days before and after the cold wave outbreak, and the three-dimensional spatial point information is output.

[0098] In this embodiment, the early warning of the power grid equipment in the study area based on the displacement trajectory of the particle includes:

[0099] Determine a correction value of a cooling amplitude of the power grid equipment based on the displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0100] When the temperature drop correction value of the power grid equipment exceeds the preset threshold, it is determined that the power grid equipment has entered the cold wave impact range;

[0101] The distance between the location of the power grid equipment and the mass point is taken as the distance to the center of the cold wave, the time when the power grid equipment enters the affected area of ​​the cold wave is taken as the arrival time of the cold wave, the time when the power grid equipment leaves the affected area of ​​the cold wave is taken as the departure time of the cold wave, and the time between the arrival time of the cold wave and the departure time of the cold wave is taken as the impact duration of the cold wave;

[0102] The maximum temperature drop and the maximum wind speed at the location of the power grid equipment during the duration of the cold wave impact are taken as the intensity of the cold wave impact;

[0103] The distance from the center of the cold wave, the arrival time of the cold wave, the departure time of the cold wave, the duration of the cold wave impact and the intensity of the cold wave impact are used as warning factors.

[0104] In one embodiment, the temperature reduction correction value of the power grid equipment is as follows:

[0105]

[0106] In the above formula, △T′ is the correction value of the cooling amplitude of the power grid equipment, △T 48 is the temperature drop of the power grid equipment within 48 hours, (x1, y1, z1) is the spatial position coordinate of the particle, and (x, y, z) is the spatial position coordinate of the power grid equipment.

[0107] Among them, the preset threshold is 0.03.

[0108] Example 2

[0109] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a power grid equipment early warning device based on cold wave path tracing, and the power grid equipment early warning device based on cold wave path tracing includes:

[0110] Identification module, used to identify cold wave events based on numerical weather forecast data in the study area;

[0111] A determination module, for determining a driving field for a three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model based on numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event period;

[0112] The analysis module is used to use the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as the input of the HYSPLIT model to perform iterative calculations to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points;

[0113] The early warning module is used to issue early warning to the power grid equipment in the research area based on the displacement trajectory of the particle.

[0114] Preferably, the cold wave event identification based on numerical weather forecast data of the study area includes:

[0115] The grid points corresponding to the numerical weather forecast data that meet the constraints are regarded as the cold wave event occurrence areas;

[0116] Taking the grid point corresponding to the maximum daily temperature drop as the center, the cold wave event areas with the same occurrence time and located within 1200km around the center are merged;

[0117] When more than 40% of the grid points in the study area are cold wave event areas, it is determined that a cold wave event has occurred in the study area;

[0118] Merge cold wave events whose intervals do not exceed the preset time.

[0119] Furthermore, the preset time is 3 days.

[0120] Furthermore, the constraint conditions include: the minimum temperature is below 4°C and the daily minimum temperature drops by more than 8°C within 24 hours, or by more than 10°C within 48 hours, or by more than 12°C within 72 hours.

[0121] Preferably, the determining of the driving field of the HYSPLIT model three-dimensional trajectory simulation based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event includes:

[0122] The numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event were converted into an arl file that can be read by the HYSPLIT model and used as the driving field for the three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model.

[0123] Furthermore, the conversion of the numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event into an arl file readable by the HYSPLIT model includes:

[0124] The mixed σ-pressure coordinate interpolation method is used to interpolate the numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event period to obtain NetCDF or Grib meteorological forecast field data;

[0125] The NetCDF or Grib weather forecast field data is input into the arw2arl.exe program provided by the HYSPLIT model to obtain an arl file that can be read by the HYSPLIT model.

[0126] Preferably, the process of selecting the particle includes: taking the grid point with the largest temperature drop in a single day when the cold wave event occurs as the particle.

[0127] Preferably, the element information corresponding to the particle includes: horizontal wind field, vertical wind field, temperature, altitude, air pressure, and surface air pressure.

[0128] Preferably, in the process of iterative calculation using the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as inputs of the HYSPLIT model, the integration time step satisfies: max △t<0.75, where U max is the maximum transport velocity of the particle at the last iterative calculation moment, and △t is the integration time step.

[0129] Preferably, the iterative calculation of the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as inputs of the HYSPLIT mode to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points includes:

[0130] Set the simulation time and perform backward integration in HYSPLIT mode to obtain the first displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0131] Set the simulation time and perform forward integration in HYSPLIT mode to obtain the second displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0132] Merging the first displacement trajectory and the second displacement trajectory to obtain a displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0133] Among them, the displacement trajectory of the particle is the displacement trajectory of the simulated time before and after the cold wave event occurs.

[0134] Preferably, the step of providing early warning to power grid equipment in the research area based on the displacement trajectory of the particle includes:

[0135] Determine a correction value of a cooling amplitude of the power grid equipment based on the displacement trajectory of the particle;

[0136] When the temperature drop correction value of the power grid equipment exceeds the preset threshold, it is determined that the power grid equipment has entered the cold wave impact range;

[0137] The distance between the location of the power grid equipment and the mass point is taken as the distance to the center of the cold wave, the time when the power grid equipment enters the affected area of ​​the cold wave is taken as the arrival time of the cold wave, the time when the power grid equipment leaves the affected area of ​​the cold wave is taken as the departure time of the cold wave, and the time between the arrival time of the cold wave and the departure time of the cold wave is taken as the impact duration of the cold wave;

[0138] The maximum temperature drop and the maximum wind speed at the location of the power grid equipment during the duration of the cold wave impact are taken as the intensity of the cold wave impact;

[0139] The distance from the center of the cold wave, the arrival time of the cold wave, the departure time of the cold wave, the duration of the cold wave impact and the intensity of the cold wave impact are used as warning factors.

[0140] Furthermore, the correction value of the temperature reduction amplitude of the power grid equipment is as follows:

[0141]

[0142] In the above formula, △T′ is the correction value of the cooling amplitude of the power grid equipment, △T 48 is the temperature drop of the power grid equipment within 48 hours, (x1, y1, z1) is the spatial position coordinate of the particle, and (x, y, z) is the spatial position coordinate of the power grid equipment.

[0143] Furthermore, the preset threshold is 0.03.

[0144] Example 3

[0145] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a computer device, which includes a processor and a memory, wherein the memory is used to store a computer program, the computer program includes program instructions, and the processor is used to execute the program instructions stored in the computer storage medium. The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gates or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. It is the computing core and control core of the terminal, which is suitable for implementing one or more instructions, and is specifically suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions in the computer storage medium to implement the corresponding method flow or corresponding function, so as to implement the steps of a power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing in the above embodiment.

[0146] Example 4

[0147] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a storage medium, specifically a computer-readable storage medium (Memory), which is a memory device in a computer device for storing programs and data. It can be understood that the computer-readable storage medium here can include both built-in storage media in a computer device and, of course, extended storage media supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides a storage space, which stores the operating system of the terminal. In addition, one or more instructions suitable for being loaded and executed by a processor are also stored in the storage space, and these instructions can be one or more computer programs (including program codes). It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium here can be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk memory. The processor can load and execute one or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium to implement the steps of a power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracking in the above embodiment.

[0148] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0149] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0150] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0151] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0152] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracking, characterized in that: The method comprises: Identify cold wave events based on numerical weather forecast data in the study area; The driving field of the HYSPLIT model three-dimensional trajectory simulation is determined based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event; The selected mass points and their corresponding element information are used as the input of the HYSPLIT model for iterative calculation to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points; Based on the displacement trajectory of the particle, early warning is given to the power grid equipment in the study area.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The cold wave event identification based on numerical weather forecast data in the study area includes: The grid points corresponding to the numerical weather forecast data that meet the constraints are regarded as the cold wave event occurrence areas; Taking the grid point corresponding to the maximum daily temperature drop as the center, the cold wave event areas with the same occurrence time and located within 1200km around the center are merged; When more than 40% of the grid points in the study area are cold wave event areas, it is determined that a cold wave event has occurred in the study area; Merge cold wave events whose intervals do not exceed the preset time.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The preset time is 3 days.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The constraints include: the minimum temperature is below 4°C and the daily minimum temperature drops by more than 8°C within 24 hours, or by more than 10°C within 48 hours, or by more than 12°C within 72 hours.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method of determining the driving field of the HYSPLIT model three-dimensional trajectory simulation based on the corresponding numerical weather forecast data during the cold wave event includes: The numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event were converted into an arl file that can be read by the HYSPLIT model and used as the driving field for the three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The conversion of the numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event into an arl file readable by the HYSPLIT model includes: The mixed σ-pressure coordinate interpolation method is used to interpolate the numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event period to obtain NetCDF or Grib meteorological forecast field data; The NetCDF or Grib weather forecast field data is input into the arw2arl.exe program provided by the HYSPLIT model to obtain an arl file that can be read by the HYSPLIT model.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The process of selecting the particle includes: taking the grid point with the largest temperature drop in a single day when the cold wave event occurs as the particle.

8. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The element information corresponding to the particle includes: horizontal wind field, vertical wind field, temperature, altitude, air pressure, and surface air pressure.

9. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that In the process of iterative calculation using the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as the input of the HYSPLIT model, the integration time step satisfies: U max △t<0.75, where U max is the maximum transport velocity of the particle at the last iterative calculation moment, and △t is the integration time step.

10. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The selected mass points and their corresponding element information are used as inputs of the HYSPLIT mode for iterative calculation to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points, including: Set the simulation duration, perform backward integration through the HYSPLIT mode, and obtain the first displacement trajectory of the particle; Set the simulation time and perform forward integration in HYSPLIT mode to obtain the second displacement trajectory of the particle; Merging the first displacement trajectory and the second displacement trajectory to obtain a displacement trajectory of the particle; Among them, the displacement trajectory of the particle is the displacement trajectory of the simulated time before and after the cold wave event occurs.

11. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The early warning of the power grid equipment in the study area based on the displacement trajectory of the particle includes: Determine a correction value of a temperature drop of the power grid equipment based on the displacement trajectory of the particle; When the temperature drop correction value of the power grid equipment exceeds the preset threshold, it is determined that the power grid equipment has entered the cold wave impact range; The distance between the location of the power grid equipment and the mass point is taken as the distance to the center of the cold wave, the time when the power grid equipment enters the affected area of ​​the cold wave is taken as the arrival time of the cold wave, the time when the power grid equipment leaves the affected area of ​​the cold wave is taken as the departure time of the cold wave, and the time between the arrival time of the cold wave and the departure time of the cold wave is taken as the impact duration of the cold wave; The maximum temperature drop and the maximum wind speed at the location of the power grid equipment during the duration of the cold wave impact are taken as the intensity of the cold wave impact; The distance from the center of the cold wave, the arrival time of the cold wave, the departure time of the cold wave, the duration of the cold wave impact and the intensity of the cold wave impact are used as warning factors.

12. The method according to claim 11, characterized in that The correction value of the temperature reduction range of the power grid equipment is as follows: In the above formula, △T′ is the correction value of the cooling amplitude of the power grid equipment, △T 48 is the temperature drop of the power grid equipment within 48 hours, (x1, y1, z1) is the spatial position coordinate of the particle, and (x, y, z) is the spatial position coordinate of the power grid equipment.

13. The method according to claim 11, characterized in that The preset threshold is 0.

03.

14. A device for the power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing according to any one of claims 1 to 13, characterized in that: The device comprises: Identification module, used to identify cold wave events based on numerical weather forecast data in the study area; A determination module for determining a driving field for a three-dimensional trajectory simulation of the HYSPLIT model based on numerical weather forecast data corresponding to the cold wave event period; The analysis module is used to use the selected mass points and their corresponding element information as the input of the HYSPLIT model to perform iterative calculations to obtain the displacement trajectory of the mass points; The early warning module is used to issue early warning to the power grid equipment in the research area based on the displacement trajectory of the particle.

15. A computer device, characterized in that: include: one or more processors; The processor is configured to execute one or more programs; When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing as described in any one of claims 1 to 13 is implemented.

16. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: A computer program is stored thereon, and when the computer program is executed, the power grid equipment early warning method based on cold wave path tracing as described in any one of claims 1 to 13 is implemented.

Images