Combustible ice produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment method, device and equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of combustible ice storage and transportation, and discloses a combustible ice produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment method, device and equipment and a storage medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring real-time data of each risk assessment index corresponding to a risk factor; determining a deviation value of each risk assessment index according to the real-time data of each risk assessment index; determining a risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment index; according to the risk value, the storage and transportation risk of the combustible ice produced gas in the storage and transportation process is evaluated, the deviation serves as the guide, risk factors of combustible ice from a drilling platform to a liquefied natural gas production platform to storage and transportation and other links are analyzed, then the deviation is quantized, and finally the final risk value is obtained based on the quantized deviation. Risk assessment is carried out on the whole storage and transportation process of the combustible ice in combination with actual exploitation, storage and transportation factors of the combustible ice, so that assessment is more comprehensive and accurate.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of methane hydrate storage and transportation, and in particular to a methane hydrate produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium. Background Art

[0002] "Methane hydrate", also known as natural gas hydrate, is a globally recognized new green energy source. my country has abundant reserves of methane hydrate resources, but the storage and transportation issues that restrict the commercial application of methane hydrate need to be explored and resolved. Among them, the safety risk assessment of the storage and transportation process is an indispensable link, and scientific risk assessment results can provide technical support for the storage and transportation plan of methane hydrate.

[0003] Many scholars at home and abroad have conducted risk assessments on traditional natural gas transportation. For example, starting from the loading reliability, navigation reliability, and unloading reliability of natural gas transportation, the reliability of LNG transportation is comprehensively evaluated using the evidence reasoning method; by establishing a hierarchical model for risk assessment of new FLNG / FLPG equipment, the risk results of the whole ship equipment of new FLNG / FLPG equipment are analyzed; FPSO fire and explosion risk equipment is analyzed, and a FPSO fire and explosion risk assessment method is proposed; the safety spacing of each production module device on FLNG is risk assessed; a leakage diffusion model for the upper deck area is established, and the consequences of low-temperature damage caused by leakage of natural gas product transmission pipelines in the upper deck area are studied. The above risk assessment methods all start from a single level, and fail to conduct risk assessment of the entire process of methane hydrate storage and transportation in combination with the actual factors of methane hydrate mining, storage and transportation, and the assessment lacks comprehensiveness and accuracy.

[0004] The above contents are only used to assist in understanding the technical solution of the present invention and do not constitute an admission that the above contents are prior art. Summary of the invention

[0005] The main purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, device, equipment and storage medium for risk assessment of methane hydrate production and storage and transportation, aiming to solve the technical problems that the current risk assessment methods are all based on a single level, fail to combine the actual factors of methane hydrate mining, storage and transportation to conduct risk assessment of the entire process of methane hydrate storage and transportation, and the assessment lacks comprehensiveness and accuracy.

[0006] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced gas from combustible ice, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] Obtain real-time data of various risk assessment indicators corresponding to risk factors;

[0008] Determine the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator;

[0009] Determining a risk value based on the deviation values ​​of each risk assessment indicator;

[0010] The storage and transportation risks of the produced methane hydrate gas during storage and transportation are evaluated based on the risk value.

[0011] In some embodiments, determining the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator includes:

[0012] Determining a real-time parameter value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator;

[0013] Determining the safety value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator;

[0014] The deviation value of each risk assessment indicator is calculated according to the real-time parameter value and the safety value.

[0015] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the deviation value is: Among them, P xi is the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator, p xi' is the real-time parameter value of each risk assessment indicator, p yi is the safety value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator.

[0016] In some embodiments, determining the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator includes:

[0017] Based on the risk factors, nodes of the Bayesian network are defined to obtain parent nodes and child nodes, and a risk assessment model for produced gas from methane hydrate is established;

[0018] Determine the prior probability corresponding to the deviation value and the conditional probability corresponding to each node based on the methane hydrate produced gas risk assessment model;

[0019] A joint probability is calculated based on the prior probability and the conditional probability to obtain a risk value.

[0020] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the joint probability is: P(x1,...,x k )=P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 )...P(x2|x1)P(x1), where P(x1,...,x k ) is the joint probability, P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 ) is the event x1,...,x k-1 When x kThe probability of occurrence, P(x2|x1) is the probability of x2 occurring when event x1 occurs, P(x1) is the probability of event x1 occurring, the joint probability corresponds to the risk value, P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 ) and P(x2|x1) correspond to the conditional probability, and P(x1) corresponds to the prior probability.

[0021] In some embodiments, the step of evaluating the storage and transportation risk of produced methane hydrate gas during storage and transportation according to the risk value includes:

[0022] Query the risk value range corresponding to each risk level from the preset mapping relationship table;

[0023] Determining a risk value range corresponding to the risk value;

[0024] The risk level of the produced methane hydrate gas during storage and transportation is determined based on the risk value range corresponding to the risk value.

[0025] In some embodiments, the risk factors include at least physical factors, human factors, management factors and environmental factors. The physical factors and the environmental factors are obtained through the Internet of Things, and the human factors and the management factors are obtained through security inspections.

[0026] In addition, in order to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present invention also proposes a risk assessment device for storage and transportation of produced gas from combustible ice, and the risk assessment device for storage and transportation of produced gas from combustible ice comprises:

[0027] An acquisition module is used to obtain real-time data of various risk assessment indicators corresponding to the risk factors;

[0028] A calculation module, used to determine the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator;

[0029] The calculation module is used to determine the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator;

[0030] An assessment module is used to assess the storage and transportation risks of the produced methane hydrate gas during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value.

[0031] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present invention also proposes a risk assessment device for the storage and transportation of combustible ice produced gas, the risk assessment device for the storage and transportation of combustible ice produced gas comprising: a memory, a processor, and a combustible ice produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the combustible ice produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment program being configured to implement the steps of the combustible ice produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment method as described above.

[0032] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present invention also proposes a storage medium, on which a risk assessment program for the storage and transportation of combustible hydrate gas is stored. When the risk assessment program for the storage and transportation of combustible hydrate gas is executed by a processor, the steps of the risk assessment method for the storage and transportation of combustible hydrate gas are implemented as described above.

[0033] The present invention obtains real-time data of each risk assessment indicator corresponding to the hazardous factor; determines the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator; determines the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator; evaluates the storage and transportation risk of the produced methane hydrate gas during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value, and takes the deviation as the guide to analyze the hazardous factors of methane hydrate from the drilling platform to the liquefied natural gas production platform and then to the storage and transportation, and then quantifies the deviation, and finally obtains the final risk value based on the quantified deviation, and combines the actual factors of the mining, storage and transportation of methane hydrate to conduct risk assessment on the whole process of methane hydrate storage and transportation, so that the assessment is more comprehensive and accurate. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0034] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the first embodiment of the risk assessment method for storage and transportation of combustible ice produced gas of the present invention;

[0035] Figure 2 This is a structural block diagram of the first embodiment of the risk assessment device for combustible ice production gas storage and transportation of the present invention.

[0036] The realization of the purpose, functional features and advantages of the present invention will be further explained in conjunction with embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0037] It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention, and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0038] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced gas from combustible ice, referring to Figure 1 , Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of a first embodiment of a method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas.

[0039] In this embodiment, the risk assessment method for storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas includes the following steps:

[0040] Step S10: Acquire real-time data of each risk assessment indicator corresponding to the risk factor.

[0041] In this embodiment, the executor of this embodiment is a risk assessment device for the storage and transportation of combustible ice gas, wherein the risk assessment device for the storage and transportation of combustible ice gas has functions such as data processing, data communication and program running. The risk assessment device for the storage and transportation of combustible ice gas can be a computer terminal device or other network device, and of course it can also be other devices with similar functions, and this embodiment does not limit this.

[0042] It should be noted that many scholars at home and abroad have conducted risk assessments on traditional natural gas transportation. For example, starting from the loading reliability, navigation reliability, and unloading reliability of natural gas transportation, the reliability of LNG transportation is comprehensively evaluated using the evidence reasoning method; by establishing a hierarchical model for risk assessment of new FLNG / FLPG equipment, the risk results of the whole ship equipment of new FLNG / FLPG equipment are analyzed; FPSO fire and explosion risk equipment is analyzed, and a FPSO fire and explosion risk assessment method is proposed; the safety spacing of each production module device on FLNG is risk assessed; a leakage diffusion model for the upper deck area is established, and the consequences of low-temperature damage caused by leakage of natural gas product transmission pipelines in the upper deck area are studied. The above risk assessment methods all start from a single level, and fail to conduct risk assessments on the entire process of methane hydrate storage and transportation in combination with the actual factors of methane hydrate mining, storage and transportation, and the assessment lacks comprehensiveness and accuracy.

[0043] In order to solve the above technical problems, this embodiment obtains real-time data of each risk assessment indicator corresponding to the hazardous factor; determines the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator; determines the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator; evaluates the storage and transportation risk of the produced gas from combustible ice during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value, and analyzes the hazardous factors of combustible ice from the drilling platform to the liquefied natural gas production platform and then to the storage and transportation, and then quantifies the deviation, and finally obtains the final risk value based on the quantified deviation, and combines the actual factors of the mining, storage and transportation of combustible ice to conduct risk assessment on the entire process of storage and transportation of combustible ice, so that the assessment is more comprehensive and accurate. Specifically, it can be achieved as follows.

[0044] It should be noted that the risk assessment method for the storage and transportation of gas produced by combustible ice in this embodiment combines various interfaces of the transportation of gas produced by combustible ice. This mining is mainly transported in the mode of liquefied natural gas. The index-HAZOP analysis method is used. Guided by deviation, the risk factors from the drilling platform to the liquefied natural gas production platform and then to storage and transportation are analyzed. The first-level indicator factors are: material factors, human factors, management factors, environmental factors, etc., and the guiding words are: liquefaction device, ship power, connection, protection, operation, fatigue, skill training, full-staff safety responsibility system, full-staff certification, safety inspection, geological exploration, sea weather conditions, etc. Through various calculation methods, the deviation is quantified, and the quantified deviation is used as the prior probability in the dynamic Bayesian network. Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the conditional probability of the Bayesian network, and finally the final risk value of the storage and transportation process of combustible ice is obtained. The storage and transportation scenario in this embodiment is as follows: the produced gas from the methane hydrate is connected from the mining platform through an offshore floating hose to a self-built LNG offshore production platform, LNG is produced on this platform, and the LNG is stored in LNG tanks. Finally, a special transport ship transports the LNG tanks to the port for unloading, and then transfers to land transportation to inject the produced gas from the methane hydrate into the gas pipeline network.

[0045] The indicator-HAZOP analysis method is adopted, with deviation as the guide, to analyze the possible risk factors of the system, and analyzes the risk factors from drilling and production platforms to LNG production platforms and storage and transportation. The first-level indicator factors are: material factors, human factors, management factors, environmental factors, etc., and the guiding words are: liquefaction equipment, ship power, connection, protection, operation, fatigue, skill training, full-staff safety responsibility system, all staff holding certificates, safety inspections, geological exploration conditions, sea weather conditions, etc. The specific risk factor analysis table is shown in Table 1.

[0046] Table 1:

[0047]

[0048]

[0049]

[0050] In the specific implementation, in this embodiment, it is necessary to first obtain real-time data of each risk assessment indicator corresponding to the hazardous factor. The division of hazardous factors can refer to the above Table 1. It should be noted that the hazardous factors include at least material factors, human factors, management factors and environmental factors. The material factors and environmental factors are obtained through the Internet of Things, and the human factors and management factors are obtained through safety inspections.

[0051] Step S20: determining the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator.

[0052] After the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator is obtained, a deviation value may be calculated based on the obtained real-time data, where the deviation value represents the deviation between the real-time data and the safety value.

[0053] The specific calculation process of the deviation value is to obtain specific real-time parameters based on real-time data, such as geological parameters in environmental factors and weather parameters in the sea area. Then determine the safety value corresponding to each wind direction indicator, and calculate the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator based on the real-time parameter value and the safety value. The calculation formula of the deviation value is: Among them, P xi is the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator, p xi' is the real-time parameter value of each risk assessment indicator, p yi It is the safety value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator. The safety value can be set based on the standard, which is not limited in this embodiment.

[0054] This embodiment is further explained in combination with the actual application scenario. The gas produced by combustible ice is connected to the gas outlet of the mining platform and sent to the LNG production platform 1.5 kilometers away through a floating hose. The platform adopts oil and gas dual drive and is equipped with a DP2 dynamic positioning system. The platform deck is equipped with a purification skid, liquefaction skid, storage tank area, and control skid for the gas produced by combustible ice. The bow is the office area and living area. The interface part of the mining platform is monitored by a dedicated person, and the job responsibility of the production platform falls to individuals. The platform equipment is regularly inspected and employees are trained regularly. Employees work in two shifts, working 20 hours, resting 20 hours, 12 hours a day, and the handover time is 8 o'clock and 20 o'clock. The following deviations are obtained by calculation, please refer to Table 2 for details.

[0055] Table 2:

[0056]

[0057] Step S30: determining a risk value based on the deviation values ​​of the risk assessment indicators.

[0058] After obtaining the deviation value, the present embodiment further substitutes it into the Bayesian network model, thereby realizing the dynamic Bayesian network calculation of the risk of methane hydrate storage and transportation. Specifically, the Bayesian network is used to first define the nodes of the Bayesian network based on the above-mentioned risk factors, thereby obtaining the parent node and the child node. The selection of the parent node and the child node in the above-mentioned risk factors can be set according to actual needs, and this is not limited in the present embodiment. The risk assessment model of methane hydrate production gas can be obtained with the above-mentioned set nodes, and then the calculated deviation value is input into the model as the prior probability, and then the conditional probability corresponding to each node is input to calculate the final risk deviation value.

[0059] In this embodiment, the joint probability can be calculated based on the prior probability and conditional probability. The calculation formula of the joint probability is: P(x1,...,x k )=P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 )...P(x2|x1)P(x1), where P(x1,...,x k ) is the joint probability, P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 ) is the event x1,...,x k-1 When x k The probability of occurrence, P(x2|x1) is the probability of x2 occurring when event x1 occurs, P(x1) is the probability of event x1 occurring, the joint probability corresponds to the risk value, P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 ) and P(x2|x1) are the conditional probabilities in this embodiment, and P(x1) is the prior probability in this embodiment.

[0060] Step S40: Assess the storage and transportation risk of the produced methane hydrate gas during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value.

[0061] After obtaining the risk value, the risk value range corresponding to each risk level is queried from the preset mapping relationship table, the risk value range corresponding to the risk value is determined, and finally the risk level can be determined based on the risk value range. The preset mapping relationship table in this embodiment is shown in Table 3 below.

[0062] Table 3:

[0063] Risk Level Calculation results Low 0～25％ middle 25％～50％ high 50％～75％ Very high 75％～100％

[0064] As shown in Table 2 above, each risk level corresponds to a different range. For example, the low risk level corresponds to 0-25%. The risk value in this embodiment is also the joint probability finally calculated above. The corresponding risk level can be determined by judging the final range.

[0065] This embodiment obtains real-time data of each risk assessment indicator corresponding to the hazardous factor; determines the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator; determines the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator; evaluates the storage and transportation risk of the produced methane hydrate gas during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value, and analyzes the hazardous factors of methane hydrate from the drilling platform to the liquefied natural gas production platform and then to the storage and transportation, and then quantifies the deviation, and finally obtains the final risk value based on the quantified deviation, and combines the actual factors of the mining, storage and transportation of methane hydrate to conduct risk assessment on the whole process of methane hydrate storage and transportation, so that the assessment is more comprehensive and accurate.

[0066] In addition, an embodiment of the present invention also proposes a storage medium, on which a risk assessment program for the storage and transportation of combustible hydrate gas is stored. When the risk assessment program for the storage and transportation of combustible hydrate gas is executed by a processor, the steps of the risk assessment method for the storage and transportation of combustible hydrate gas are implemented as described above.

[0067] Reference Figure 2 , Figure 2 This is a structural block diagram of the first embodiment of the risk assessment device for combustible ice production gas storage and transportation of the present invention.

[0068] like Figure 2 As shown, the combustible ice produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment device proposed in the embodiment of the present invention includes:

[0069] The acquisition module 10 is used to acquire real-time data of each risk assessment indicator corresponding to the risk factor.

[0070] The calculation module 20 is used to determine the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator.

[0071] The calculation module 20 is used to determine the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator.

[0072] The evaluation module 30 is used to evaluate the storage and transportation risk of the produced methane hydrate gas during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value.

[0073] This embodiment obtains real-time data of each risk assessment indicator corresponding to the hazardous factor; determines the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator; determines the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator; evaluates the storage and transportation risk of the produced methane hydrate gas during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value, and analyzes the hazardous factors of methane hydrate from the drilling platform to the liquefied natural gas production platform and then to the storage and transportation, and then quantifies the deviation, and finally obtains the final risk value based on the quantified deviation, and combines the actual factors of the mining, storage and transportation of methane hydrate to conduct risk assessment on the whole process of methane hydrate storage and transportation, so that the assessment is more comprehensive and accurate.

[0074] In some embodiments, the calculation module 20 is used to determine the real-time parameter value of each risk assessment indicator based on the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator; determine the safety value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator; and calculate the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator based on the real-time parameter value and the safety value.

[0075] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the deviation value is: Among them, P xi is the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator, p xi'is the real-time parameter value of each risk assessment indicator, p yi is the safety value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator.

[0076] In some embodiments, the calculation module 20 is used to define the nodes of the Bayesian network based on the risk factors, obtain parent nodes and child nodes, and establish a risk assessment model for methane hydrate production gas; determine the prior probability corresponding to the deviation value and the conditional probability corresponding to each node based on the methane hydrate production gas risk assessment model; calculate the joint probability based on the prior probability and the conditional probability to obtain the risk value.

[0077] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the joint probability is: P(x1,...,x k )=P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 )...P(x2|x1)P(x1), where P(x1,...,x k ) is the joint probability, P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 ) is the event x1,...,x k-1 When x k The probability of occurrence, P(x2|x1) is the probability of x2 occurring when event x1 occurs, P(x1) is the probability of event x1 occurring, the joint probability corresponds to the risk value, P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 ) and P(x2|x1) correspond to the conditional probability, and P(x1) corresponds to the prior probability.

[0078] In some embodiments, the assessment module 30 is used to query the risk value range corresponding to each risk level from a preset mapping relationship table; determine the risk value range corresponding to the risk value; and determine the risk level of the produced methane hydrate gas during storage and transportation based on the risk value range corresponding to the risk value.

[0079] In some embodiments, the risk factors include at least physical factors, human factors, management factors and environmental factors. The physical factors and the environmental factors are obtained through the Internet of Things, and the human factors and the management factors are obtained through security inspections.

[0080] An embodiment of the present application also provides a risk assessment device for the storage and transportation of produced gas from methane hydrate, including a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the communication interface and the memory communicate with each other via the communication bus, and the memory is used to store computer programs; the processor is used to implement the above-mentioned risk assessment method for the storage and transportation of produced gas from methane hydrate when executing the program stored in the memory.

[0081] The communication bus mentioned in the above-mentioned combustible ice produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment device can be a peripheral component interconnect standard (English: Peripheral Component Interconnect, referred to as: PCI) bus or an extended industrial standard architecture (English: Extended Industry Standard Architecture, referred to as: EISA) bus, etc. The communication bus can be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc.

[0082] The communication interface is used for communication between the above-mentioned combustible ice production gas storage and transportation risk assessment equipment and other equipment.

[0083] The memory may include a random access memory (RAM) or a non-volatile memory (NVM), such as at least one disk memory. Optionally, the memory may also be at least one storage device located away from the aforementioned processor.

[0084] The above-mentioned processor can be a general-purpose processor, including a central processing unit (CPU), a network processor (NP), etc.; it can also be a digital signal processor (DSP), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gates or transistor logic devices, and discrete hardware components.

[0085] In the above embodiments, it can be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, firmware or any combination thereof. When implemented using software, it can be implemented in whole or in part in the form of a computer program product. The computer program product includes one or more computer instructions. When the computer program instructions are loaded and executed on a computer, the process or function described in the embodiment of the present application is generated in whole or in part. The computer may be a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, a computer network, or other programmable device. The computer instructions may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, or transmitted from one computer-readable storage medium to another computer-readable storage medium, for example, the computer instructions may be transmitted from a website site, computer, server or data center by wired (e.g., coaxial cable, optical fiber, digital subscriber line (DSL)) or wireless (e.g., infrared, wireless, microwave, etc.) mode to another website site, computer, server or data center. The computer-readable storage medium may be any available medium that a computer can access or a data storage device such as a server or data center that includes one or more available media integration. The available medium may be a magnetic medium, (e.g., a floppy disk, a hard disk, a tape), an optical medium (e.g., a DVD), or a semiconductor medium (e.g., a solid-state drive Solid State Disk (SSD)), etc.

[0086] It should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "comprise a ..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0087] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a related manner, and the same or similar parts between the embodiments can be referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. In particular, for the system embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiment.

[0088] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit the same. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the technical features may be replaced by equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0089] It should be understood that the above is only an example and does not constitute any limitation on the technical solution of the present invention. In specific applications, technicians in this field can make settings as needed, and the present invention does not limit this.

[0090] It should be noted that the workflow described above is merely illustrative and does not limit the scope of protection of the present invention. In practical applications, technicians in this field can select part or all of them according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the present embodiment, and no limitation is made here.

[0091] In addition, for technical details not fully described in this embodiment, reference can be made to the risk assessment method for storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas provided in any embodiment of the present invention, and will not be repeated here.

[0092] In addition, it should be noted that, in this article, the terms "include", "comprises" or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or system including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or system. In the absence of further restrictions, an element defined by the sentence "comprises a ..." does not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or system including the element.

[0093] The serial numbers of the above embodiments of the present invention are only for description and do not represent the advantages or disadvantages of the embodiments.

[0094] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium (such as a read-only memory (ROM) / RAM, a magnetic disk, or an optical disk), and includes a number of instructions for a terminal device (which can be a mobile phone, a computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment of the present invention.

[0095] The above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent structure or equivalent process transformation made using the contents of the present invention specification and drawings, or directly or indirectly applied in other related technical fields, are also included in the patent protection scope of the present invention.

[0096] It is understandable that the system provided by the embodiment of the present invention corresponds to the method provided by the embodiment of the present invention, and the explanation, examples and beneficial effects of the relevant contents can refer to the corresponding parts in the above method.

Claims

1. A method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced gas from combustible ice, characterized in that: The risk assessment method for storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas includes: Obtain real-time data of various risk assessment indicators corresponding to risk factors; Determine the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator; Determining a risk value based on the deviation values ​​of each risk assessment indicator; The storage and transportation risks of the produced methane hydrate gas during storage and transportation are evaluated based on the risk value.

2. The method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator includes: Determining a real-time parameter value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator; Determining the safety value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator; The deviation value of each risk assessment indicator is calculated according to the real-time parameter value and the safety value.

3. The method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas according to claim 2, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the deviation value is: Among them, P xi is the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator, p xi' is the real-time parameter value of each risk assessment indicator, p yi is the safety value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator.

4. The method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas according to claim 1, characterized in that: The determining of the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator includes: Based on the risk factors, nodes of the Bayesian network are defined to obtain parent nodes and child nodes, and a risk assessment model for produced gas from methane hydrate is established; Determine the prior probability corresponding to the deviation value and the conditional probability corresponding to each node based on the methane hydrate produced gas risk assessment model; A joint probability is calculated based on the prior probability and the conditional probability to obtain a risk value.

5. The method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the joint probability is: P(x1,...,x k )=P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 )...P(x2|x1)P(x1), where P(x1,...,x k ) is the joint probability, P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 ) is the event x1,...,x k-1 When x k The probability of occurrence P(x2|x1) is the probability of x2 occurring when event x1 occurs. P(x1) is the probability of event x1 occurring. The joint probability corresponds to the risk value, P(x k |x1,...,x k-1 ) and P(x2|x1) correspond to the conditional probability, and P(x1) corresponds to the prior probability.

6. The method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of evaluating the storage and transportation risk of the produced methane hydrate gas during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value includes: Query the risk value range corresponding to each risk level from the preset mapping relationship table; Determining a risk value range corresponding to the risk value; The risk level of the produced methane hydrate gas during storage and transportation is determined based on the risk value range corresponding to the risk value.

7. The method for risk assessment of storage and transportation of produced methane hydrate gas according to claim 1, characterized in that: The risk factors include at least material factors, human factors, management factors and environmental factors. The material factors and environmental factors are obtained through the Internet of Things, and the human factors and management factors are obtained through safety inspections.

8. A risk assessment device for storage and transportation of combustible ice produced gas, characterized in that: The combustible ice produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment device comprises: An acquisition module is used to obtain real-time data of various risk assessment indicators corresponding to the risk factors; A calculation module, used to determine the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator according to the real-time data of each risk assessment indicator; The calculation module is used to determine the risk value based on the deviation value of each risk assessment indicator; An assessment module is used to assess the storage and transportation risks of the produced methane hydrate gas during the storage and transportation process according to the risk value.

9. A risk assessment device for storage and transportation of produced gas from combustible ice, characterized in that: The combustible hydrate gas storage and transportation risk assessment device includes: a memory, a processor, and a combustible hydrate gas storage and transportation risk assessment program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the combustible hydrate gas storage and transportation risk assessment program is configured to implement the steps of the combustible hydrate gas storage and transportation risk assessment method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium stores a combustible hydrate produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment program, and when the combustible hydrate produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment program is executed by the processor, the steps of the combustible hydrate produced gas storage and transportation risk assessment method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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