Method for predicting damage height of mining overburden strata under high-water-pressure loose aquifer of deep well

Abstract

The invention discloses a mining overlying strata damage height prediction method under a deep well high-water-pressure loose aquifer, relates to the field of resource development, solves the problem of poor prediction effect of an overlying strata damage height prediction method, and comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining sample overlying strata data, S2, obtaining first to mth strata exploration coefficients and a target strata exploration coefficient, s3, acquiring first to mth mining exploration coefficients and a target mining exploration coefficient to obtain resource mining data, and S4, acquiring first to mth hydrological exploration coefficients and a target hydrological exploration coefficient to obtain resource hydrological data, s5, an overlying strata failure height prediction model is established to predict the overlying strata failure height of the target overlying strata area, and an overlying strata failure height predicted value is obtained. According to the overlying strata failure height prediction method and device, the accuracy and objectivity of an overlying strata failure height prediction result can be improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of resource development and relates to data prediction technology, specifically a method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining under a loose aquifer with high water pressure in a deep well. Background Art

[0002] The existing overburden failure height prediction methods have the following defects when predicting overburden failure height:

[0003] 1. Existing methods focus on the analysis of a single factor, lack the evaluation of the comprehensive impact of multiple factors, and only focus on data or information in one aspect, but lack the comprehensive analysis and utilization of multiple data sources, which easily leads to low accuracy of prediction results;

[0004] 2. Existing methods rely on the experience of engineers or researchers, which makes the estimated results largely affected by subjective judgment. Different engineers or researchers may come up with different estimated results based on different experiences and understandings.

[0005] Therefore, we propose a method to predict the height of overburden damage caused by mining in loose aquifers with high water pressure in deep wells. Summary of the invention

[0006] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention aims to provide a method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a loose aquifer with high water pressure in a deep well. The present invention is based on respectively obtaining historical overburden damage case data, the first overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case and the first overburden damage height to the mth overburden damage height to obtain sample overburden data, obtain the resource burial depth, overburden thickness and rock strength of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, analyze and obtain the exploration coefficient of the first rock layer to the mth rock layer, perform rock mass analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target rock layer exploration coefficient, define the target rock layer exploration coefficient and the first rock layer exploration coefficient to the mth rock layer exploration coefficient as rock layer exploration data, obtain the resource extraction speed, average resource extraction depth and resource extraction intensity of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, and analyze and obtain the first The mining exploration coefficient is obtained up to the mth mining exploration coefficient, and a mining analysis is performed on the target overburden area to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient, and the target mining exploration coefficient and the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient are defined as resource mining data, and the aquifer depth and overburden wetness of each overburden damage case are obtained according to the sample overburden data, and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient are obtained by analysis, and a hydrological analysis is performed on the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient, and the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient are defined as resource hydrological data, and an overburden damage height prediction model is established by analyzing the sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource mining data and resource hydrological data, and the overburden damage height is predicted for the target overburden area according to the overburden damage height prediction model to obtain the predicted overburden damage height value.

[0007] In order to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme: A method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer comprises the following specific steps:

[0008] Step S1: respectively obtaining historical overburden rock damage case data, the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case, and the first overburden rock damage height to the mth overburden rock damage height to obtain sample overburden rock data;

[0009] Step S2: Obtain the resource burial depth, overburden thickness and rock strength of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, analyze and obtain the exploration coefficients of the first rock layer to the mth rock layer, and perform rock mass analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target rock layer exploration coefficient, and define the target rock layer exploration coefficient and the exploration coefficients of the first rock layer to the mth rock layer as rock layer exploration data;

[0010] Step S3: obtaining the resource mining speed, average resource mining depth and resource mining intensity of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, analyzing and obtaining the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient, and performing mining analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient, and defining the target mining exploration coefficient and the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient as resource mining data;

[0011] Step S4: obtaining the aquifer depth and overburden wetness of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, analyzing and obtaining the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient, and performing hydrological analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient, and defining the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient as resource hydrological data;

[0012] Step S5: Establish an overburden damage height prediction model by analyzing sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data, and resource hydrological data; predict the overburden damage height of the target overburden area according to the overburden damage height prediction model to obtain an overburden damage height prediction value.

[0013] Furthermore, the step S1 further includes the following specific steps:

[0014] Step S11: acquiring historical overburden rock failure case data, selecting m sample historical overburden rock cases from the historical overburden rock failure case data, and naming them as the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case, respectively;

[0015] Step S12: acquiring the overburden rock damage heights corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case respectively according to the historical overburden rock damage case data, and obtaining the first overburden rock damage height to the mth overburden rock damage height;

[0016] Step S13: define the historical overburden rock damage case data, the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case, and the first overburden rock damage height to the mth overburden rock damage height as sample overburden rock data.

[0017] Furthermore, the step S2 further includes the following specific steps:

[0018] Step S21: Obtain sample overburden rock data, obtain the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case according to the sample overburden rock data, obtain historical overburden rock damage case data according to the sample overburden rock data, and obtain the resource burial depth, overburden rock thickness and overburden rock strength corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case according to the historical overburden rock damage case data;

[0019] Step S22: Calculate the resource burial depth, overburden thickness and overburden strength corresponding to the first overburden damage case to obtain the first rock layer exploration coefficient;

[0020] The exploration coefficient of the first rock layer is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0021] ;

[0022] Among them, Ycx1 is the exploration coefficient of the first rock layer, Mcs is the resource burial depth, Fyh is the overburden thickness, and Fyq is the overburden strength;

[0023] Step S23: respectively acquiring the rock formation exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden failure case to the mth overburden failure case to obtain the second rock formation exploration coefficients to the mth rock formation exploration coefficients;

[0024] Step S24: j resource layer survey points are selected on the surface of the target overburden area, and the first resource layer survey point to the jth resource layer survey point are respectively selected, and rock cores are drilled downward from the first resource layer survey point to the jth resource layer survey point to obtain rock cores from the first survey point to the jth survey point;

[0025] Step S25: surveying the resource burial depth of the target overburden area to obtain the target resource burial depth;

[0026] Step S26: surveying the overburden thickness of the target overburden area to obtain the target overburden thickness;

[0027] Step S27: randomly selecting a plurality of overburden blocks at different positions and depths in the target overburden area as sample overburden blocks, respectively acquiring the strength value corresponding to each overburden block to obtain a plurality of overburden block strength values, and calculating the average value of the plurality of overburden block strength values ​​to obtain the target overburden strength;

[0028] Step S28: Calculate the target resource burial depth, target overburden thickness and target overburden strength to obtain a rock formation exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area, and name it as the target rock formation exploration coefficient;

[0029] The exploration coefficient of the target rock formation is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0030] ;

[0031] Among them, Ycxm is the exploration coefficient of the target rock formation, Mcm is the burial depth of the target resource, Fym is the target overburden thickness, and Fhm is the target overburden strength;

[0032] Step S29: defining the target resource mining depth, the first rock formation exploration coefficient to the mth rock formation exploration coefficient and the target rock formation exploration coefficient as rock formation exploration data;

[0033] The step S26 further includes the following specific steps:

[0034] Step S261: obtaining a length value of an area covered by overburden in the core at the first survey point, and obtaining a first overburden thickness value;

[0035] Step S262: respectively obtaining the length values ​​of the area covered by the overburden in the core from the second survey point to the jth survey point, and obtaining the second overburden thickness value to the jth overburden thickness value;

[0036] Step S263: Calculate the average of the first overburden thickness value to the jth overburden thickness value to obtain the target overburden thickness.

[0037] Furthermore, the step S25 further includes the following specific steps:

[0038] Step S251: in the core of the first survey point, mark the upper end point where the resource material appears as the first distance survey point;

[0039] Step S252: randomly selecting a feature point at the surface end of the core at the first survey point to obtain a second distance survey point;

[0040] Step S253: in the core of the first survey point, mark the lower end point where the resource material appears as a third distance survey point;

[0041] Step S254: obtaining the length distance value between the first distance survey point and the second distance survey point to obtain the resource layer depth of the first survey point;

[0042] Step S255: obtaining the length distance value between the third distance survey point and the second distance survey point, obtaining the resource layer depth of the second survey point, and naming it as the target resource mining depth;

[0043] Step S256: acquiring the length distance values ​​of the first distance survey point and the second distance survey point for the core from the second survey point to the jth survey point, respectively, to obtain the resource layer depth from the second survey point to the resource layer depth from the jth survey point;

[0044] Step S257: Calculate the average of the resource layer depth at the first survey point and the resource layer depth at the jth survey point to obtain the target resource burial depth.

[0045] Furthermore, the step S3 further includes the following specific steps:

[0046] Step S31: acquiring the first overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data;

[0047] Step S32: obtaining a mining exploration coefficient corresponding to the first overburden failure case to obtain a first mining exploration coefficient;

[0048] Step S33: obtaining the mining exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case, and obtaining the second mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient;

[0049] Step S34: obtaining the mining exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient;

[0050] Step S35: defining the target exploitation exploration coefficient and the first exploitation exploration coefficient to the mth exploitation exploration coefficient as resource exploitation data;

[0051] The step S34 further includes the following specific steps:

[0052] Step S341: obtaining the planned resource extraction volume and planned extraction time corresponding to the target overburden area, calculating the ratio of the planned resource extraction volume to the planned extraction time, and obtaining the target resource extraction speed;

[0053] Step S342: Obtain resource mining data, and obtain target resource mining depth according to the resource mining data;

[0054] Step S343: acquiring the area of ​​the target overburden area to obtain the area value of the overburden area, calculating the ratio of the planned resource extraction volume to the area value of the overburden area, and obtaining the target resource extraction intensity;

[0055] Step S344: Calculate the target resource mining speed, target resource mining depth and target resource mining intensity to obtain a target mining exploration coefficient;

[0056] The target mining exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0057] ;

[0058] Among them, Kcxm is the target mining exploration coefficient, Sdm is the resource mining speed, Zsm is the target resource mining depth, and Zqm is the target resource mining intensity.

[0059] Furthermore, the step S32 further includes the following specific steps:

[0060] Step S321: obtaining historical overburden damage case data according to sample overburden data;

[0061] Step S322: Obtain the cumulative mining time, average resource mining depth, cumulative resource mining volume and mining area of ​​the mining area corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case according to the historical overburden rock damage case data;

[0062] Step S323: Obtain the ratio of the cumulative coal mining volume and the cumulative mining time corresponding to the first overburden damage case to obtain the resource mining speed;

[0063] Step S324: obtaining the ratio of the cumulative coal mining volume corresponding to the first overburden damage case to the mining area of ​​the mining area, and obtaining the resource mining intensity;

[0064] Step S325: obtaining a first mining exploration coefficient by calculating the resource mining speed, the average resource mining depth and the resource mining intensity;

[0065] The first mining exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0066] ;

[0067] Among them, Kcx1 is the first mining exploration coefficient, Sdk is the resource mining speed, Zsk is the average resource mining depth, and Zqk is the resource mining intensity.

[0068] Furthermore, the step S4 further includes the following specific steps:

[0069] Step S41: acquiring the first overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data;

[0070] Step S42: obtaining a hydrological exploration coefficient corresponding to the first overburden failure case to obtain a first hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0071] Step S43: acquiring the hydrological exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case respectively, to obtain the second hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0072] Step S44: obtaining the hydrological exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0073] Step S45: defining the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient as resource hydrological data;

[0074] The step S42 further includes the following specific steps:

[0075] Step S421: obtaining historical overburden damage case data according to sample overburden data;

[0076] According to the historical overburden damage case data, the aquifer depth and overburden moisture corresponding to the first overburden damage case are obtained;

[0077] Step S422: Calculate the depth of the aquifer and the wetness of the overburden rock to obtain a first hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0078] The first hydrological exploration coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0079] ;

[0080] Among them, Swx1 is the first hydrological exploration coefficient, Hss is the depth of the aquifer, and Hls is the wetness of the overburden rock;

[0081] The step S44 further includes the following specific steps:

[0082] Step S441: Obtain the aquifer depth corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target aquifer depth;

[0083] Step S442: randomly selecting a number of humidity monitoring points in the overburden of the target overburden area, where the humidity monitoring points are at different positions and depths in the overburden, respectively obtaining a humidity value corresponding to each humidity monitoring point, obtaining a plurality of monitoring humidity values, and averaging the plurality of monitoring humidity values ​​to obtain the target overburden humidity;

[0084] Step S443: Calculate the target hydrological exploration coefficient by taking the target aquifer depth and the target overburden wetness into account;

[0085] The target hydrological exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is as follows:

[0086] ;

[0087] Among them, Swxm is the target hydrological exploration coefficient, Hsm is the target aquifer depth, and Hlm is the target overburden wetness.

[0088] Furthermore, the step S441 further includes the following specific steps:

[0089] Step S4411: randomly selecting a plurality of water-bearing drilling points on the surface of the target overburden area, drilling downward from each water-bearing drilling point, and obtaining a preset drilling depth;

[0090] Step S4412: when the water-bearing drilling point has reached the preset drilling depth and has not yet drilled to the underground aquifer, the corresponding water-bearing drilling point is marked as an invalid drilling point;

[0091] Step S4413: when the water-bearing drilling point does not reach the preset drilling depth and drills to the underground aquifer, the corresponding water-bearing drilling point is marked as a valid drilling point;

[0092] Step S4414: The drilling depth of each effective drilling point is obtained respectively to obtain a plurality of effective drilling depth values, and the average of the plurality of effective drilling depth values ​​is calculated to obtain the target aquifer depth.

[0093] Furthermore, the step S5 further includes the following specific steps:

[0094] Step S51: Acquire sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data, and resource hydrological data;

[0095] Step S52: acquiring the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case and the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height according to the sample overburden rock data;

[0096] Step S53: acquiring the target resource mining depth and the first rock formation exploration coefficient to the mth rock formation exploration coefficient according to the rock formation exploration data, acquiring the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient and the target mining exploration coefficient according to the resource mining data, and acquiring the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient according to the resource hydrological data;

[0097] Step S54: obtaining a first overburden destruction coefficient by calculating the first rock formation exploration coefficient, the first mining exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient, and naming the first overburden destruction coefficient;

[0098] The overburden failure coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0099] ;

[0100] Among them, Fph1 is the first overburden destruction coefficient, Ycx1 is the first rock layer exploration coefficient, Kcx1 is the first mining exploration coefficient, and Swx1 is the first hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0101] Step S55: acquiring the overburden damage coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case respectively, and obtaining the second overburden damage coefficient to the mth overburden damage coefficient;

[0102] Step S56: establishing a model for predicting overburden rock failure height according to the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height and the first overburden rock failure coefficient to the mth overburden rock failure coefficient;

[0103] Step S57: obtaining a target rock formation exploration coefficient according to the sample overburden data, obtaining a target mining exploration coefficient according to the resource mining data, and obtaining a target hydrological exploration coefficient according to the resource hydrological data;

[0104] Step S58: Calculate the target rock formation exploration coefficient, the target mining exploration coefficient and the target hydrological exploration coefficient to obtain the target overburden destruction coefficient;

[0105] The target overburden destruction coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0106] ;

[0107] Among them, Fphm is the target overburden destruction coefficient, Ycxm is the target rock formation exploration coefficient, Kcxm is the target mining exploration coefficient, and Swxm is the target hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0108] Step S59: Substitute the target overburden damage coefficient as parameter x into the overburden damage height prediction model, and obtain the y value output by the model to obtain the overburden damage height prediction value corresponding to the target overburden area.

[0109] Furthermore, the step S56 further includes the following specific steps:

[0110] Step S561: establishing a polynomial fitting model according to specific values ​​corresponding to the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height and the first overburden rock failure coefficient to the mth overburden rock failure coefficient;

[0111] The polynomial fitting model is specifically established as follows:

[0112] ;

[0113] Among them, y is the overburden failure height, x is the overburden failure coefficient, and a 0 to a n The model fitting parameters to be determined respectively;

[0114] Step S562: establishing a residual sum of squares function RSS of the overburden failure height y through the first overburden failure height to the mth overburden failure height;

[0115] Step S563: Calculate the residual sum of squares function RSS of the overburden failure height y 0 to a n The partial derivative of n contains the unknown number a 0 to a n The function expression contains the unknown number a 0 to a n The function expression of a 0 to a n By separating the parameters to the left side of the function expression equal sign, and setting the right side of the function expression equal sign to 0, we get n groups containing a 0 to a n The equation of , by solving the system of equations, we get a 0 to a n Specific value of

[0116] Step S564: 0 to a n The specific value of is substituted back into the polynomial fitting model to obtain the overburden failure height prediction model.

[0117] In summary, due to the adoption of the above technical solution, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0118] 1. The present invention can effectively reduce the deviation between the predicted results and the actual results and improve the accuracy of the predicted results by obtaining multiple data such as rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data and resource hydrological data for comprehensive analysis;

[0119] 2. The present invention establishes an overburden damage height prediction model by analyzing sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data and resource hydrological data, and predicts the overburden damage height of the target overburden area according to the overburden damage height prediction model, thereby effectively ensuring the objectivity and comprehensiveness of the prediction results. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0120] In order to facilitate understanding by those skilled in the art, the present invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0121] Figure 1 It is a diagram of the implementation steps of the present invention;

[0122] Figure 2 is the overall system block diagram of the present invention;

[0123] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the core in the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0124] The technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the embodiments. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0125] Embodiment 1

[0126] See also Figure 1 The present invention provides a technical solution: a method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer, comprising the following specific steps:

[0127] Step S1: Obtain sample overburden data;

[0128] Step S11: acquiring historical overburden rock failure case data, selecting m sample historical overburden rock cases from the historical overburden rock failure case data, and naming them as the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case, respectively;

[0129] Step S12: acquiring the overburden rock damage heights corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case respectively according to the historical overburden rock damage case data, and obtaining the first overburden rock damage height to the mth overburden rock damage height;

[0130] Step S13: defining historical overburden rock damage case data, the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case, and the first overburden rock damage height to the mth overburden rock damage height as sample overburden rock data;

[0131] Step S2: Obtain the resource burial depth, overburden thickness, and rock strength of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, analyze and obtain the exploration coefficients of the first rock layer to the mth rock layer, and perform rock mass analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target rock layer exploration coefficient, and define the target rock layer exploration coefficient and the exploration coefficients of the first rock layer to the mth rock layer as rock layer exploration data;

[0132] Step S21: Obtain sample overburden rock data, obtain the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case according to the sample overburden rock data, obtain historical overburden rock damage case data according to the sample overburden rock data, and obtain the resource burial depth, overburden rock thickness and overburden rock strength corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case according to the historical overburden rock damage case data;

[0133] Step S22: Calculate the resource burial depth, overburden thickness and overburden strength corresponding to the first overburden damage case to obtain the first rock layer exploration coefficient;

[0134] The exploration coefficient of the first rock layer is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0135] ;

[0136] Among them, Ycx1 is the exploration coefficient of the first rock layer, Mcs is the resource burial depth, Fyh is the overburden thickness, and Fyq is the overburden strength;

[0137] Step S23: respectively acquiring the rock formation exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden failure case to the mth overburden failure case to obtain the second rock formation exploration coefficients to the mth rock formation exploration coefficients;

[0138] Step S24: j resource layer survey points are selected on the surface of the target overburden area, and the first resource layer survey point to the jth resource layer survey point are respectively selected, and rock cores are drilled downward from the first resource layer survey point to the jth resource layer survey point to obtain rock cores from the first survey point to the jth survey point;

[0139] Step S25: surveying the resource burial depth of the target overburden area to obtain the target resource burial depth;

[0140] See also Figure 3 In step S25, the specific following steps are also included:

[0141] Step S251: in the core of the first survey point, mark the upper end point where the resource material appears as the first distance survey point;

[0142] Step S252: randomly selecting a feature point at the surface end of the core at the first survey point to obtain a second distance survey point;

[0143] Step S253: in the core of the first survey point, mark the lower end point where the resource material appears as a third distance survey point;

[0144] Step S254: obtaining the length distance value between the first distance survey point and the second distance survey point to obtain the resource layer depth of the first survey point;

[0145] Step S255: obtaining the length distance value between the third distance survey point and the second distance survey point, obtaining the resource layer depth of the second survey point, and naming it as the target resource mining depth;

[0146] Step S256: acquiring the length distance values ​​of the first distance survey point and the second distance survey point for the core from the second survey point to the jth survey point, respectively, to obtain the resource layer depth from the second survey point to the resource layer depth from the jth survey point;

[0147] Step S257: Calculate the average of the resource layer depth at the first survey point and the resource layer depth at the jth survey point to obtain the target resource burial depth;

[0148] Step S26: surveying the overburden thickness of the target overburden area to obtain the target overburden thickness;

[0149] The step S26 further includes the following specific steps:

[0150] Step S261: obtaining a length value of an area covered by overburden in the core at the first survey point, and obtaining a first overburden thickness value;

[0151] Step S262: respectively obtaining the length values ​​of the area covered by the overburden in the core from the second survey point to the jth survey point, and obtaining the second overburden thickness value to the jth overburden thickness value;

[0152] Step S263: Calculate the average of the first overburden thickness value to the jth overburden thickness value to obtain the target overburden thickness;

[0153] Step S27: randomly selecting a plurality of overburden blocks at different positions and depths in the target overburden area as sample overburden blocks, respectively acquiring the strength value corresponding to each overburden block to obtain a plurality of overburden block strength values, and calculating the average value of the plurality of overburden block strength values ​​to obtain the target overburden strength;

[0154] Step S28: Calculate the target resource burial depth, target overburden thickness and target overburden strength to obtain a rock formation exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area, and name it as the target rock formation exploration coefficient;

[0155] The exploration coefficient of the target rock formation is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0156] ;

[0157] Among them, Ycxm is the exploration coefficient of the target rock formation, Mcm is the burial depth of the target resource, Fym is the target overburden thickness, and Fhm is the target overburden strength;

[0158] Step S29: defining the target resource mining depth, the first rock formation exploration coefficient to the mth rock formation exploration coefficient and the target rock formation exploration coefficient as rock formation exploration data;

[0159] Step S3: obtaining the resource mining speed, average resource mining depth and resource mining intensity of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, analyzing and obtaining the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient, and performing mining analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient, and defining the target mining exploration coefficient and the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient as resource mining data;

[0160] Step S31: acquiring the first overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data;

[0161] Step S32: obtaining a mining exploration coefficient corresponding to the first overburden failure case to obtain a first mining exploration coefficient;

[0162] The step S32 further includes the following specific steps:

[0163] Step S321: obtaining historical overburden damage case data according to sample overburden data;

[0164] Step S322: Obtain the cumulative mining time, average resource mining depth, cumulative resource mining volume and mining area of ​​the mining area corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case according to the historical overburden rock damage case data;

[0165] Step S323: Obtain the ratio of the cumulative coal mining volume and the cumulative mining time corresponding to the first overburden damage case to obtain the resource mining speed;

[0166] Step S324: obtaining the ratio of the cumulative coal mining volume corresponding to the first overburden damage case to the mining area of ​​the mining area, and obtaining the resource mining intensity;

[0167] Step S325: obtaining a first mining exploration coefficient by calculating the resource mining speed, the average resource mining depth and the resource mining intensity;

[0168] The first mining exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0169] ;

[0170] Among them, Kcx1 is the first mining exploration coefficient, Sdk is the resource mining speed, Zsk is the average resource mining depth, and Zqk is the resource mining intensity;

[0171] Step S33: obtaining the mining exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case, and obtaining the second mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient;

[0172] Step S34: obtaining the mining exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient;

[0173] The step S34 further includes the following specific steps:

[0174] Step S341: obtaining the planned resource extraction volume and planned extraction time corresponding to the target overburden area, calculating the ratio of the planned resource extraction volume to the planned extraction time, and obtaining the target resource extraction speed;

[0175] Step S342: Obtain resource mining data, and obtain target resource mining depth according to the resource mining data;

[0176] Step S343: acquiring the area of ​​the target overburden area to obtain the area value of the overburden area, calculating the ratio of the planned resource extraction volume to the area value of the overburden area, and obtaining the target resource extraction intensity;

[0177] Step S344: Calculate the target resource mining speed, target resource mining depth and target resource mining intensity to obtain a target mining exploration coefficient;

[0178] The target mining exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0179] ;

[0180] Among them, Kcxm is the target mining exploration coefficient, Sdm is the resource mining speed, Zsm is the target resource mining depth, and Zqm is the target resource mining intensity;

[0181] Step S35: defining the target exploitation exploration coefficient and the first exploitation exploration coefficient to the mth exploitation exploration coefficient as resource exploitation data;

[0182] Step S4: obtaining the aquifer depth and overburden wetness of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, analyzing and obtaining the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient, and performing hydrological analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient, and defining the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient as resource hydrological data;

[0183] Step S41: acquiring the first overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data;

[0184] Step S42: obtaining a hydrological exploration coefficient corresponding to the first overburden failure case to obtain a first hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0185] The step S42 further includes the following specific steps:

[0186] Step S421: obtaining historical overburden damage case data according to sample overburden data;

[0187] According to the historical overburden damage case data, the aquifer depth and overburden moisture corresponding to the first overburden damage case are obtained;

[0188] Step S422: Calculate the depth of the aquifer and the wetness of the overburden rock to obtain a first hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0189] The first hydrological exploration coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0190] ;

[0191] Among them, Swx1 is the first hydrological exploration coefficient, Hss is the depth of the aquifer, and Hls is the wetness of the overburden rock;

[0192] Step S43: acquiring the hydrological exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case respectively, to obtain the second hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0193] Step S44: obtaining the hydrological exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0194] Step S441: Obtain the aquifer depth corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target aquifer depth;

[0195] The step S441 further includes the following specific steps:

[0196] Step S4411: randomly selecting a plurality of water-bearing drilling points on the surface of the target overburden area, drilling downward from each water-bearing drilling point, and obtaining a preset drilling depth;

[0197] Step S4412: when the water-bearing drilling point has reached the preset drilling depth and has not yet drilled to the underground aquifer, the corresponding water-bearing drilling point is marked as an invalid drilling point;

[0198] Step S4413: when the water-bearing drilling point does not reach the preset drilling depth and drills to the underground aquifer, the corresponding water-bearing drilling point is marked as a valid drilling point;

[0199] Step S4414: acquiring the drilling depth of each effective drilling point respectively, obtaining a plurality of effective drilling depth values, and calculating the average of the plurality of effective drilling depth values ​​to obtain the target aquifer depth;

[0200] Step S442: randomly selecting a number of humidity monitoring points in the overburden of the target overburden area, where the humidity monitoring points are at different positions and depths in the overburden, respectively obtaining a humidity value corresponding to each humidity monitoring point, obtaining a plurality of monitoring humidity values, and averaging the plurality of monitoring humidity values ​​to obtain the target overburden humidity;

[0201] Step S443: Calculate the target hydrological exploration coefficient by taking the target aquifer depth and the target overburden wetness into account;

[0202] The target hydrological exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is as follows:

[0203] ;

[0204] Among them, Swxm is the target hydrological exploration coefficient, Hsm is the target aquifer depth, and Hlm is the target overburden wetness;

[0205] Step S45: defining the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient as resource hydrological data;

[0206] Step S5: Establishing a model for predicting the overburden damage height by analyzing sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data, and resource hydrological data; predicting the overburden damage height of the target overburden area according to the model for predicting the overburden damage height, and obtaining a predicted value of the overburden damage height;

[0207] Step S51: Acquire sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data, and resource hydrological data;

[0208] Step S52: acquiring the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case and the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height according to the sample overburden rock data;

[0209] Step S53: acquiring the target resource mining depth and the first rock formation exploration coefficient to the mth rock formation exploration coefficient according to the rock formation exploration data, acquiring the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient and the target mining exploration coefficient according to the resource mining data, and acquiring the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient according to the resource hydrological data;

[0210] Step S54: obtaining a first overburden destruction coefficient by calculating the first rock formation exploration coefficient, the first mining exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient, and naming the first overburden destruction coefficient;

[0211] The overburden failure coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0212] ;

[0213] Among them, Fph1 is the first overburden destruction coefficient, Ycx1 is the first rock layer exploration coefficient, Kcx1 is the first mining exploration coefficient, and Swx1 is the first hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0214] Step S55: acquiring the overburden damage coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case respectively, and obtaining the second overburden damage coefficient to the mth overburden damage coefficient;

[0215] Step S56: establishing a model for predicting overburden rock failure height according to the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height and the first overburden rock failure coefficient to the mth overburden rock failure coefficient;

[0216] The step S56 further includes the following specific steps:

[0217] Step S561: establishing a polynomial fitting model according to specific values ​​corresponding to the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height and the first overburden rock failure coefficient to the mth overburden rock failure coefficient;

[0218] The polynomial fitting model is specifically established as follows:

[0219] ;

[0220] Among them, y is the overburden failure height, x is the overburden failure coefficient, and a 0 to a n The model fitting parameters to be determined respectively;

[0221] Step S562: establishing a residual sum of squares function RSS of the overburden failure height y through the first overburden failure height to the mth overburden failure height;

[0222] Step S563: Calculate the residual sum of squares function RSS of the overburden failure height y 0 to a nThe partial derivative of n contains the unknown number a 0 to a n The function expression contains the unknown number a 0 to a n The function expression of a 0 to a n By separating the parameters to the left side of the function expression equal sign, and setting the right side of the function expression equal sign to 0, we get n groups containing a 0 to a n The equation of , by solving the system of equations, we get a 0 to a n Specific value of

[0223] Step S564: 0 to a n The specific value of is substituted back into the polynomial fitting model to obtain the overburden failure height prediction model;

[0224] Step S57: obtaining a target rock formation exploration coefficient according to the sample overburden data, obtaining a target mining exploration coefficient according to the resource mining data, and obtaining a target hydrological exploration coefficient according to the resource hydrological data;

[0225] Step S58: Calculate the target rock formation exploration coefficient, the target mining exploration coefficient and the target hydrological exploration coefficient to obtain the target overburden destruction coefficient;

[0226] The target overburden destruction coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0227] ;

[0228] Among them, Fphm is the target overburden destruction coefficient, Ycxm is the target rock formation exploration coefficient, Kcxm is the target mining exploration coefficient, and Swxm is the target hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0229] Step S59: Substitute the target overburden damage coefficient as parameter x into the overburden damage height prediction model, and obtain the y value output by the model to obtain the overburden damage height prediction value corresponding to the target overburden area.

[0230] In this application, if corresponding calculation formulas appear, the above calculation formulas are all dimensionless and take their numerical calculations. The weight coefficients, proportional coefficients and other coefficients in the formulas are set to a result value obtained by quantifying each parameter. The size of the weight coefficient and the proportional coefficient can be determined as long as it does not affect the proportional relationship between the parameter and the result value.

[0231] Embodiment 2

[0232] See also Figure 2Based on another concept of the same invention, a method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a loose aquifer with high water pressure in a deep well is proposed, which is applied to a system for predicting the height of overburden damage. The prediction system includes a data acquisition module, a rock formation data module, a mining data module, a hydrological data module, a height prediction module and a server. The data acquisition module, the rock formation data module, the mining data module, the hydrological data module and the height prediction module are respectively connected to the server, and the server controls the data acquisition module, the rock formation data module, the mining data module, the hydrological data module and the height prediction module respectively.

[0233] The data acquisition module acquires sample overburden data;

[0234] Obtain historical overburden rock failure case data, select m sample historical overburden rock cases from the historical overburden rock failure case data, and name them as the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case, respectively;

[0235] It should be noted here that:

[0236] In this application, m specifically refers to the number value corresponding to the sample historical overburden case, and m is an integer greater than 0;

[0237] The historical overburden failure case data involved here are specifically cases of overburden failure events collected, analyzed and summarized in the fields of mining, geological engineering and civil engineering;

[0238] According to the historical overburden rock failure case data, the overburden rock failure heights corresponding to the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case are respectively obtained to obtain the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height;

[0239] The historical overburden failure case data, the first overburden failure case to the mth overburden failure case, and the first overburden failure height to the mth overburden failure height are defined as sample overburden data;

[0240] The data acquisition module acquires the sample overburden data and transmits it to the rock formation data module, the mining data module, the hydrological data module and the height prediction module;

[0241] The rock formation data module obtains the resource burial depth, rock thickness, and rock strength of each rock formation damage case based on the sample rock formation data, obtains the exploration coefficients of the first rock formation to the mth rock formation by analysis, and performs rock mass analysis on the target rock formation area to obtain the target rock formation exploration coefficient. The target rock formation exploration coefficient and the exploration coefficients of the first rock formation to the mth rock formation are defined as rock formation exploration data;

[0242] It should be noted that the target overburden area in this application document is specifically the area with the estimated overburden damage height;

[0243] Acquire sample overburden rock data, and acquire the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case according to the sample overburden rock data;

[0244] Obtain historical overburden damage case data based on sample overburden data;

[0245] According to the historical overburden rock damage case data, the resource burial depth, overburden rock thickness and overburden rock strength corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case are obtained;

[0246] The resource burial depth, overburden thickness and overburden strength corresponding to the first overburden destruction case are calculated to obtain the first rock layer exploration coefficient;

[0247] The exploration coefficient of the first rock layer is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0248] ;

[0249] Among them, Ycx1 is the exploration coefficient of the first rock layer, Mcs is the resource burial depth, Fyh is the overburden thickness, and Fyq is the overburden strength;

[0250] The rock formation exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden failure case to the mth overburden failure case are respectively obtained to obtain the second rock formation exploration coefficient to the mth rock formation exploration coefficient;

[0251] Select j resource layer exploration points on the surface of the target overburden area, and respectively extend them from the first resource layer exploration point to the jth resource layer exploration point, and drill down from the first resource layer exploration point to the jth resource layer exploration point to obtain the first exploration point core to the jth exploration point core;

[0252] It should be noted here that:

[0253] In this application, j is the number value corresponding to the resource layer survey point, and j is an integer greater than 0, and the number of cores at the survey point is the same as the number of survey points at the resource layer;

[0254] Conduct resource burial depth survey on the target overburden area to obtain the target resource burial depth;

[0255] The details are as follows:

[0256] In the core at the first survey point, the upper end point where the resource material appears is marked as the first distance survey point;

[0257] It should be noted here that:

[0258] In this application, the resource material involved may be a coal material, and the target resource layer is a coal layer;

[0259] A feature point is randomly selected at the surface end of the core at the first survey point to obtain a second distance survey point;

[0260] In the core of the first survey point, the lower end point where the resource material appears is marked as the third distance survey point;

[0261] Obtain the length distance value between the first distance survey point and the second distance survey point to obtain the resource layer depth of the first survey point;

[0262] Obtain the length distance value between the third distance survey point and the second distance survey point, obtain the resource layer depth of the second survey point, and name it as the target resource mining depth;

[0263] The length distance values ​​of the first distance survey point and the second distance survey point are respectively obtained for the core from the second survey point to the jth survey point, and the depth of the resource layer from the second survey point to the jth survey point is obtained;

[0264] Calculate the average of the resource layer depth at the first survey point and the resource layer depth at the jth survey point to obtain the target resource burial depth;

[0265] Conduct overburden thickness survey on the target overburden area to obtain the target overburden thickness;

[0266] The details are as follows:

[0267] Obtaining a length value of an area covered by overburden in the core at the first survey point to obtain a first overburden thickness value;

[0268] Respectively obtain the length values ​​of the area covered by the overburden in the core from the second survey point to the jth survey point, and obtain the second overburden thickness value to the jth overburden thickness value;

[0269] Calculate the average of the first overburden thickness value to the jth overburden thickness value to obtain the target overburden thickness;

[0270] Conduct overburden strength survey on the target overburden area to obtain the target overburden strength;

[0271] The details are as follows:

[0272] In the target overburden area, a plurality of overburden blocks at different positions and depths are randomly selected as sample overburden blocks, and the strength value corresponding to each overburden block is obtained to obtain a plurality of overburden block strength values, and the average value of the plurality of overburden block strength values ​​is calculated to obtain the target overburden strength;

[0273] It should be noted here that:

[0274] The strength values ​​involved here are specifically the compressive strength of the rock mass;

[0275] The target resource burial depth, target overburden thickness and target overburden strength are calculated to obtain the rock formation exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area, and the coefficient is named as the target rock formation exploration coefficient;

[0276] The exploration coefficient of the target rock formation is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0277] ;

[0278] Among them, Ycxm is the exploration coefficient of the target rock formation, Mcm is the burial depth of the target resource, Fym is the target overburden thickness, and Fhm is the target overburden strength;

[0279] The target resource mining depth, the first rock formation exploration coefficient to the mth rock formation exploration coefficient and the target rock formation exploration coefficient are defined as rock formation exploration data;

[0280] The rock formation data module acquires rock formation exploration data and transmits it to the height prediction module;

[0281] The mining data module obtains the resource mining speed, average resource mining depth and resource mining intensity of each overburden damage case based on the sample overburden data, analyzes and obtains the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient, and performs mining analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient. The target mining exploration coefficient and the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient are defined as resource mining data;

[0282] Obtain the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case according to the sample overburden rock data;

[0283] Obtaining a mining exploration coefficient corresponding to a first overburden failure case to obtain a first mining exploration coefficient;

[0284] The details are as follows:

[0285] Obtain historical overburden damage case data based on sample overburden data;

[0286] According to the historical overburden damage case data, the cumulative mining time, average resource mining depth, cumulative resource mining volume and mining area of ​​the mining area corresponding to the first overburden damage case are obtained;

[0287] Obtain the ratio of the cumulative coal mining volume and the cumulative mining time corresponding to the first overburden damage case to obtain the resource mining speed;

[0288] Obtain the ratio of the cumulative coal mining volume to the mining area of ​​the mining area corresponding to the first overburden destruction case, and obtain the resource mining intensity;

[0289] The resource mining speed, the average resource mining depth and the resource mining intensity are calculated to obtain a first mining exploration coefficient;

[0290] The first mining exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0291] ;

[0292] Among them, Kcx1 is the first mining exploration coefficient, Sdk is the resource mining speed, Zsk is the average resource mining depth, and Zqk is the resource mining intensity;

[0293] Obtaining the mining exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden failure case to the mth overburden failure case, and obtaining the second mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient;

[0294] Obtaining the mining exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient;

[0295] The details are as follows:

[0296] Obtain the planned resource extraction volume and planned mining duration corresponding to the target overburden area, calculate the ratio of the planned resource extraction volume to the planned mining duration, and obtain the target resource extraction speed;

[0297] Obtain resource mining data, and obtain target resource mining depth based on the resource mining data;

[0298] The target overburden area is acquired to obtain the area value of the overburden area, and the ratio of the planned resource extraction volume to the area value of the overburden area is calculated to obtain the target resource extraction intensity;

[0299] The target resource mining speed, target resource mining depth and target resource mining intensity are calculated to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient;

[0300] The target mining exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0301] ;

[0302] Among them, Kcxm is the target mining exploration coefficient, Sdm is the resource mining speed, Zsm is the target resource mining depth, and Zqm is the target resource mining intensity;

[0303] The target exploitation exploration coefficient and the first exploitation exploration coefficient to the mth exploitation exploration coefficient are defined as resource exploitation data;

[0304] The mining data module acquires resource mining data and transmits it to the height prediction module;

[0305] The hydrological data module obtains the aquifer depth and overburden wetness of each overburden damage case based on the sample overburden data, analyzes and obtains the first to mth hydrological exploration coefficients, and performs hydrological analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient. The target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first to mth hydrological exploration coefficients are defined as resource hydrological data;

[0306] Obtain the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case according to the sample overburden rock data;

[0307] Obtaining a hydrological exploration coefficient corresponding to a first overburden failure case to obtain a first hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0308] The details are as follows:

[0309] Obtain historical overburden damage case data based on sample overburden data;

[0310] According to the historical overburden damage case data, the aquifer depth and overburden moisture corresponding to the first overburden damage case are obtained;

[0311] The first hydrological exploration coefficient is obtained by calculating the depth of the aquifer and the moisture content of the overburden rock;

[0312] The first hydrological exploration coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0313] ;

[0314] Among them, Swx1 is the first hydrological exploration coefficient, Hss is the depth of the aquifer, and Hls is the wetness of the overburden rock;

[0315] The hydrological exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case are respectively obtained to obtain the second hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0316] Obtaining the hydrological exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0317] Obtain the aquifer depth corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target aquifer depth;

[0318] The details are as follows:

[0319] A plurality of water-bearing drilling points are randomly selected on the surface of the target overburden area, and drilling is performed downward from each water-bearing drilling point to obtain a preset drilling depth;

[0320] It should be noted here that:

[0321] The preset drilling depth involved here is the maximum drilling depth that can be achieved by existing drilling equipment;

[0322] When the water-bearing drilling point has reached the preset drilling depth and has not yet drilled into the underground aquifer, the corresponding water-bearing drilling point is marked as an invalid drilling point;

[0323] When the water-bearing drilling point does not reach the preset drilling depth and drills to the underground aquifer, the corresponding water-bearing drilling point is marked as a valid drilling point;

[0324] The drilling depth of each effective drilling point is obtained respectively to obtain a plurality of effective drilling depth values, and the average of the plurality of effective drilling depth values ​​is calculated to obtain the target aquifer depth;

[0325] In the overburden of the target overburden area, several humidity monitoring points are randomly selected, and the humidity monitoring points are at different positions and depths in the overburden, and the humidity value corresponding to each humidity monitoring point is obtained respectively to obtain multiple monitoring humidity values, and the average of the multiple monitoring humidity values ​​is calculated to obtain the target overburden humidity;

[0326] The target hydrological exploration coefficient is obtained by calculating the target aquifer depth and the target overburden wetness;

[0327] The target hydrological exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is as follows:

[0328] ;

[0329] Among them, Swxm is the target hydrological exploration coefficient, Hsm is the target aquifer depth, and Hlm is the target overburden wetness;

[0330] The target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient are defined as resource hydrological data;

[0331] The hydrological data module acquires resource hydrological data and transmits it to the height prediction module;

[0332] The height prediction module establishes a model for predicting the height of overburden damage by analyzing sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data, and resource hydrological data. The overburden damage height of the target overburden area is predicted based on the model, and the predicted value of the overburden damage height is obtained.

[0333] Obtain sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource extraction data, and resource hydrological data;

[0334] According to the sample overburden rock data, the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case and the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height are obtained;

[0335] Obtain the target resource mining depth and the first rock layer exploration coefficient to the mth rock layer exploration coefficient according to the rock layer exploration data;

[0336] Acquire the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient and the target mining exploration coefficient according to the resource mining data;

[0337] Obtaining a target hydrological exploration coefficient and a first hydrological exploration coefficient to an mth hydrological exploration coefficient according to resource hydrological data;

[0338] The first rock formation exploration coefficient, the first mining exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient are calculated to obtain the first overburden destruction coefficient, which is named the first overburden destruction coefficient;

[0339] The overburden failure coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0340] ;

[0341] Among them, Fph1 is the first overburden destruction coefficient, Ycx1 is the first rock layer exploration coefficient, Kcx1 is the first mining exploration coefficient, and Swx1 is the first hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0342] The overburden rock damage coefficients corresponding to the second overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case are obtained respectively, and the second overburden rock damage coefficient to the mth overburden rock damage coefficient are obtained;

[0343] A model for predicting overburden failure height is established according to the first overburden failure height to the mth overburden failure height and the first overburden failure coefficient to the mth overburden failure coefficient;

[0344] The details are as follows:

[0345] A polynomial fitting model is established according to specific values ​​corresponding to the first overburden failure height to the mth overburden failure height and the first overburden failure coefficient to the mth overburden failure coefficient;

[0346] The polynomial fitting model is specifically established as follows:

[0347] ;

[0348] Among them, y is the overburden failure height, x is the overburden failure coefficient, and a 0 to a n The model fitting parameters to be determined respectively;

[0349] The residual sum of squares function RSS of the overburden failure height y is established through the first overburden failure height to the mth overburden failure height;

[0350] By calculating the residual sum of squares function RSS of the overburden failure height y 0 to a n The partial derivative of n contains the unknown number a 0 to a n The function expression contains the unknown number a 0to a n The function expression of a 0 to a n By separating the parameters to the left side of the function expression equal sign, and setting the right side of the function expression equal sign to 0, we get n groups containing a 0 to a n The equation of , by solving the system of equations, we get a 0 to a n Specific value of

[0351] A 0 to a n The specific value of is substituted back into the polynomial fitting model to obtain the overburden failure height prediction model;

[0352] It should be noted here that:

[0353] Assumptions: The first overburden failure coefficient to the third overburden failure coefficient are 1, 2, and 3 respectively; the first overburden failure height to the third overburden failure height are 2, 4, and 6 respectively;

[0354] There are three sets of data points: when x=1, y=2, when x=2, y=3, when x=3, y=6;

[0355] The residual sum of squares (RSS) function is: ;

[0356] in, is the predicted value of the model at xi, and ;

[0357] Substituting the three sets of data points, we get:

[0358] ;

[0359] For RSS, obtain the 0 and a 1 The partial derivative of and set it to 0, we get a 0 =0,a 1 =2;

[0360] Obtain the target rock layer exploration coefficient based on the sample overburden data, obtain the target mining exploration coefficient based on the resource mining data, and obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient based on the resource hydrological data;

[0361] The target overburden destruction coefficient is obtained by calculating the target rock formation exploration coefficient, the target mining exploration coefficient and the target hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0362] The target overburden destruction coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows:

[0363] ;

[0364] Among them, Fphm is the target overburden destruction coefficient, Ycxm is the target rock formation exploration coefficient, Kcxm is the target mining exploration coefficient, and Swxm is the target hydrological exploration coefficient;

[0365] The target overburden failure coefficient is substituted as parameter x into the overburden failure height prediction model, and the y value output by the model is obtained to obtain the predicted overburden failure height corresponding to the target overburden area.

[0366] The preferred embodiments of the present invention disclosed above are only used to help explain the present invention. The preferred embodiments do not describe all the details in detail, nor do they limit the invention to only specific implementation methods. Obviously, many modifications and changes can be made according to the content of this specification. This specification selects and specifically describes these embodiments in order to better explain the principles and practical applications of the present invention, so that those skilled in the art can understand and use the present invention well. The present invention is limited only by the claims and their full scope and equivalents.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer, characterized in that: include: Step S1: respectively obtaining historical overburden rock damage case data, the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case, and the first overburden rock damage height to the mth overburden rock damage height to obtain sample overburden rock data; Step S2: Obtain the resource burial depth, overburden thickness and rock strength of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, and analyze and obtain the exploration coefficients of the first rock layer to the mth rock layer; Perform rock mass analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target rock layer exploration coefficient, and define the target rock layer exploration coefficient and the first rock layer exploration coefficient to the mth rock layer exploration coefficient as rock layer exploration data; Step S3: obtaining the resource mining speed, average resource mining depth and resource mining intensity of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, and analyzing to obtain the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient; Conducting mining analysis on the target overburden area to obtain a target mining exploration coefficient, and defining the target mining exploration coefficient and the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient as resource mining data; Step S4: obtaining the aquifer depth and overburden wetness of each overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data, and analyzing to obtain the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient; Conduct hydrological analysis on the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient, and define the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient as resource hydrological data; Step S5: Establish an overburden damage height prediction model by analyzing sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data, and resource hydrological data; predict the overburden damage height of the target overburden area according to the overburden damage height prediction model to obtain an overburden damage height prediction value.

2. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step S1 further includes the following specific steps: Step S11: acquiring historical overburden rock failure case data, selecting m sample historical overburden rock cases from the historical overburden rock failure case data, and naming them as the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case, respectively; Step S12: acquiring the overburden rock damage heights corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case respectively according to the historical overburden rock damage case data, and obtaining the first overburden rock damage height to the mth overburden rock damage height; Step S13: define the historical overburden rock damage case data, the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case, and the first overburden rock damage height to the mth overburden rock damage height as sample overburden rock data.

3. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step S2 further includes the following specific steps: Step S21: Obtain sample overburden rock data, obtain the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case according to the sample overburden rock data, obtain historical overburden rock damage case data according to the sample overburden rock data, and obtain the resource burial depth, overburden rock thickness and overburden rock strength corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case to the mth overburden rock damage case according to the historical overburden rock damage case data; Step S22: Calculate the resource burial depth, overburden thickness and overburden strength corresponding to the first overburden damage case to obtain the first rock layer exploration coefficient; The exploration coefficient of the first rock layer is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows: ； Among them, Ycx1 is the exploration coefficient of the first rock layer, Mcs is the resource burial depth, Fyh is the overburden thickness, and Fyq is the overburden strength; Step S23: respectively acquiring the rock formation exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden failure case to the mth overburden failure case to obtain the second rock formation exploration coefficients to the mth rock formation exploration coefficients; Step S24: j resource layer survey points are selected on the surface of the target overburden area, and the first resource layer survey point to the jth resource layer survey point are respectively selected, and rock cores are drilled downward from the first resource layer survey point to the jth resource layer survey point to obtain rock cores from the first survey point to the jth survey point; Step S25: surveying the resource burial depth of the target overburden area to obtain the target resource burial depth; Step S26: surveying the overburden thickness of the target overburden area to obtain the target overburden thickness; Step S27: randomly selecting a plurality of overburden blocks at different positions and depths in the target overburden area as sample overburden blocks, respectively acquiring the strength value corresponding to each overburden block to obtain a plurality of overburden block strength values, and calculating the average value of the plurality of overburden block strength values ​​to obtain the target overburden strength; Step S28: Calculate the target resource burial depth, target overburden thickness and target overburden strength to obtain a rock formation exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area, and name it as the target rock formation exploration coefficient; The exploration coefficient of the target rock formation is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows: ； Among them, Ycxm is the exploration coefficient of the target rock formation, Mcm is the burial depth of the target resource, Fym is the target overburden thickness, and Fhm is the target overburden strength; Step S29: defining the target resource mining depth, the first rock formation exploration coefficient to the mth rock formation exploration coefficient and the target rock formation exploration coefficient as rock formation exploration data; The step S26 further includes the following specific steps: Step S261: obtaining a length value of an area covered by overburden in the core at the first survey point, and obtaining a first overburden thickness value; Step S262: respectively obtaining the length values ​​of the area covered by the overburden in the core from the second survey point to the jth survey point, and obtaining the second overburden thickness value to the jth overburden thickness value; Step S263: Calculate the average of the first overburden thickness value to the jth overburden thickness value to obtain the target overburden thickness.

4. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The step S25 further includes the following specific steps: Step S251: in the core of the first survey point, mark the upper end point where the resource material appears as the first distance survey point; Step S252: randomly selecting a feature point at the surface end of the core at the first survey point to obtain a second distance survey point; Step S253: in the core of the first survey point, mark the lower end point where the resource material appears as a third distance survey point; Step S254: obtaining the length distance value between the first distance survey point and the second distance survey point to obtain the resource layer depth of the first survey point; Step S255: obtaining the length distance value between the third distance survey point and the second distance survey point, obtaining the resource layer depth of the second survey point, and naming it as the target resource mining depth; Step S256: acquiring the length distance values ​​of the first distance survey point and the second distance survey point for the core from the second survey point to the jth survey point, respectively, to obtain the resource layer depth from the second survey point to the resource layer depth from the jth survey point; Step S257: Calculate the average of the resource layer depth at the first survey point and the resource layer depth at the jth survey point to obtain the target resource burial depth.

5. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step S3 further includes the following specific steps: Step S31: acquiring the first overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data; Step S32: obtaining a mining exploration coefficient corresponding to the first overburden failure case to obtain a first mining exploration coefficient; Step S33: obtaining the mining exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case, and obtaining the second mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient; Step S34: obtaining the mining exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target mining exploration coefficient; Step S35: defining the target exploitation exploration coefficient and the first exploitation exploration coefficient to the mth exploitation exploration coefficient as resource exploitation data; The step S34 further includes the following specific steps: Step S341: obtaining the planned resource extraction volume and planned extraction time corresponding to the target overburden area, calculating the ratio of the planned resource extraction volume to the planned extraction time, and obtaining the target resource extraction speed; Step S342: Obtain resource mining data, and obtain target resource mining depth according to the resource mining data; Step S343: acquiring the area of ​​the target overburden area to obtain the area value of the overburden area, calculating the ratio of the planned resource extraction volume to the area value of the overburden area, and obtaining the target resource extraction intensity; Step S344: Calculate the target resource mining speed, target resource mining depth and target resource mining intensity to obtain a target mining exploration coefficient; The target mining exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows: ； Among them, Kcxm is the target mining exploration coefficient, Sdm is the resource mining speed, Zsm is the target resource mining depth, and Zqm is the target resource mining intensity.

6. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The step S32 further includes the following specific steps: Step S321: obtaining historical overburden damage case data according to sample overburden data; Step S322: Obtain the cumulative mining time, average resource mining depth, cumulative resource mining volume and mining area of ​​the mining area corresponding to the first overburden rock damage case according to the historical overburden rock damage case data; Step S323: Obtain the ratio of the cumulative coal mining volume and the cumulative mining time corresponding to the first overburden damage case to obtain the resource mining speed; Step S324: obtaining the ratio of the cumulative coal mining volume corresponding to the first overburden damage case to the mining area of ​​the mining area, and obtaining the resource mining intensity; Step S325: obtaining a first mining exploration coefficient by calculating the resource mining speed, the average resource mining depth and the resource mining intensity; The first mining exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows: ； Among them, Kcx1 is the first mining exploration coefficient, Sdk is the resource mining speed, Zsk is the average resource mining depth, and Zqk is the resource mining intensity.

7. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step S4 further includes the following specific steps: Step S41: acquiring the first overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case according to the sample overburden data; Step S42: obtaining a hydrological exploration coefficient corresponding to the first overburden failure case to obtain a first hydrological exploration coefficient; Step S43: acquiring the hydrological exploration coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case respectively, to obtain the second hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient; Step S44: obtaining the hydrological exploration coefficient corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target hydrological exploration coefficient; Step S45: defining the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient as resource hydrological data; The step S42 further includes the following specific steps: Step S421: obtaining historical overburden damage case data according to sample overburden data; According to the historical overburden damage case data, the aquifer depth and overburden moisture corresponding to the first overburden damage case are obtained; Step S422: Calculate the depth of the aquifer and the wetness of the overburden rock to obtain a first hydrological exploration coefficient; The first hydrological exploration coefficient is calculated as follows: ； Among them, Swx1 is the first hydrological exploration coefficient, Hss is the depth of the aquifer, and Hls is the wetness of the overburden rock; The step S44 further includes the following specific steps: Step S441: Obtain the aquifer depth corresponding to the target overburden area to obtain the target aquifer depth; Step S442: randomly selecting a number of humidity monitoring points in the overburden of the target overburden area, where the humidity monitoring points are at different positions and depths in the overburden, respectively obtaining a humidity value corresponding to each humidity monitoring point, obtaining a plurality of monitoring humidity values, and averaging the plurality of monitoring humidity values ​​to obtain the target overburden humidity; Step S443: Calculate the target hydrological exploration coefficient by taking the target aquifer depth and the target overburden wetness into account; The target hydrological exploration coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is as follows: ； Among them, Swxm is the target hydrological exploration coefficient, Hsm is the target aquifer depth, and Hlm is the target overburden wetness.

8. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The step S441 further includes the following specific steps: Step S4411: randomly selecting a plurality of water-bearing drilling points on the surface of the target overburden area, drilling downward from each water-bearing drilling point, and obtaining a preset drilling depth; Step S4412: when the water-bearing drilling point has reached the preset drilling depth and has not yet drilled to the underground aquifer, the corresponding water-bearing drilling point is marked as an invalid drilling point; Step S4413: when the water-bearing drilling point does not reach the preset drilling depth and drills to the underground aquifer, the corresponding water-bearing drilling point is marked as a valid drilling point; Step S4414: The drilling depth of each effective drilling point is obtained respectively to obtain a plurality of effective drilling depth values, and the average of the plurality of effective drilling depth values ​​is calculated to obtain the target aquifer depth.

9. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step S5 further includes the following specific steps: Step S51: Acquire sample overburden data, rock formation exploration data, resource exploitation data, and resource hydrological data; Step S52: acquiring the first overburden rock failure case to the mth overburden rock failure case and the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height according to the sample overburden rock data; Step S53: acquiring the target resource mining depth and the first rock formation exploration coefficient to the mth rock formation exploration coefficient according to the rock formation exploration data, acquiring the first mining exploration coefficient to the mth mining exploration coefficient and the target mining exploration coefficient according to the resource mining data, and acquiring the target hydrological exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient to the mth hydrological exploration coefficient according to the resource hydrological data; Step S54: obtaining a first overburden destruction coefficient by calculating the first rock formation exploration coefficient, the first mining exploration coefficient and the first hydrological exploration coefficient, and naming the first overburden destruction coefficient; The overburden failure coefficient is calculated as follows: ； Among them, Fph1 is the first overburden destruction coefficient, Ycx1 is the first rock layer exploration coefficient, Kcx1 is the first mining exploration coefficient, and Swx1 is the first hydrological exploration coefficient; Step S55: acquiring the overburden damage coefficients corresponding to the second overburden damage case to the mth overburden damage case respectively, and obtaining the second overburden damage coefficient to the mth overburden damage coefficient; Step S56: establishing a model for predicting overburden rock failure height according to the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height and the first overburden rock failure coefficient to the mth overburden rock failure coefficient; Step S57: obtaining a target rock formation exploration coefficient according to the sample overburden data, obtaining a target mining exploration coefficient according to the resource mining data, and obtaining a target hydrological exploration coefficient according to the resource hydrological data; Step S58: Calculate the target rock formation exploration coefficient, the target mining exploration coefficient and the target hydrological exploration coefficient to obtain the target overburden destruction coefficient; The target overburden destruction coefficient is calculated, and the specific formula is configured as follows: ； Among them, Fphm is the target overburden destruction coefficient, Ycxm is the target rock formation exploration coefficient, Kcxm is the target mining exploration coefficient, and Swxm is the target hydrological exploration coefficient; Step S59: Substitute the target overburden damage coefficient as parameter x into the overburden damage height prediction model, and obtain the y value output by the model to obtain the overburden damage height prediction value corresponding to the target overburden area.

10. The method for predicting the height of overburden damage caused by mining in a deep well with high water pressure and loose aquifer according to claim 9, characterized in that: The step S56 further includes the following specific steps: Step S561: establishing a polynomial fitting model according to specific values ​​corresponding to the first overburden rock failure height to the mth overburden rock failure height and the first overburden rock failure coefficient to the mth overburden rock failure coefficient; The polynomial fitting model is specifically established as follows: ； Among them, y is the overburden failure height, x is the overburden failure coefficient, a0 to a n The model fitting parameters to be determined respectively; Step S562: establishing a residual sum of squares function RSS of the overburden failure height y through the first overburden failure height to the mth overburden failure height; Step S563: By calculating the residual sum of squares function RSS of the overburden failure height y, a0 to a n The partial derivatives of n contain unknown numbers a0 to a n The function expression contains unknown numbers a0 to a n a0 to a in the function expression n By separating the parameters to the left side of the function expression equal sign, and setting the right side of the function expression equal sign to 0, we can get n groups containing a0 to a n The equation of a0 to a is obtained by solving the system of equations. n Specific value of Step S564: Convert a0 to a n The specific value of is substituted back into the polynomial fitting model to obtain the overburden failure height prediction model.

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