Quantitative method and system for recovering the investment cost shortage of a reliable power source matched with a new energy unit

Abstract

A kind of new energy unit matching reliability power investment cost recovery shortage quantification method and system.The method comprises, according to the time sequence production simulation model operation scheduling result, determine the power gap generated in the case where new energy power generation capacity is insufficient, based on the power gap, calculate the reliability power capacity that each new energy unit needs to be matched;Based on the recoverable benefits of the reliability power capacity and the investment cost of reliability power, the investment cost recovery shortage of new energy matching reliability power is quantified.The scheme of the present application realizes the reasonable quantification of new energy matching reliability power cost.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application belongs to the field of electricity market, and particularly relates to a method and system for quantifying investment cost recovery shortage of reliability power source matched with new energy unit. BACKGROUND

[0002] Under the promotion of the "double carbon" goal, China is vigorously promoting the development of new energy, and the installed capacity of wind energy, photovoltaic and other new energy is rapidly growing, gradually replacing traditional fossil energy. In the process of energy transformation, the power system is undergoing profound changes. With the rapid growth of new energy, the access of these unstable and randomly fluctuating new energy to the power grid has become an important task for the development of new power systems. The power generation capacity of wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy is affected by weather conditions, day-night changes and other factors, and there is significant random fluctuation and intermittency. In order to ensure the stability and reliability of power supply, reliability power source must be matched to balance this fluctuation, which corresponds to the investment cost of reliability power source expansion. Due to its environmental protection and renewable characteristics, new energy usually enjoys higher priority for power generation, and the priority for power generation of the matched reliability power source is relatively low. In the power system, it mainly plays a role in supplementing and adjusting to ensure that the power system can still operate stably when the power generation of new energy is insufficient or fluctuates. Therefore, the power generation of the matched reliability power source is less, which makes it difficult to fully recover the investment and operating costs in the market, resulting in investment cost recovery shortage of the matched reliability power source.

[0003] In the power system with high proportion of new energy access, different solutions have been adopted by various countries and regions to address the investment cost recovery problem of the matched reliability power source. In the prior art, a scarcity price mechanism is introduced, a peak electricity price is set during power supply shortage to help recover the fixed cost of marginal units; a capacity compensation mechanism is implemented, a certain subsidy is given to the power generation capacity through the approved price to support the economic return of the matched reliability power source; a capacity market is introduced as a long-term mechanism to ensure the investment recovery and economic benefits of traditional units. However, the above prior art mainly focuses on supplementing the investment cost of reliability power source through market mechanism design, and has not considered the diversion of investment cost to new energy units. The existing power market mainly allocates costs among reliability resources, new energy and users according to the proportion of power generation / consumption. It is impossible to achieve that the investment cost recovery shortage of the matched reliability power source is borne by new energy. SUMMARY

[0004] In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the present application provides a method and system for quantifying the investment cost recovery shortage of the reliability power source matched with the new energy unit, to solve the technical problem of quantifying the cost recovery shortage of the matched reliability power source caused by new energy, and to provide support for the mechanism design of the power market participated by new energy.

[0005] To solve the above technical problems, the application adopts the following technical solutions.

[0006] The application first discloses a quantitative method for investment cost recovery shortage of a reliability power source matched with a new energy unit, and the method comprises the following steps:

[0007] According to a time sequence production simulation model operation scheduling result, a power shortage generated in a new energy power generation capacity insufficient condition is determined, and a reliability power source capacity required to be matched with each new energy unit is calculated based on the power shortage; the time sequence production simulation model makes scheduling decisions for a power system under the condition of considering load demand and new energy time sequence output change, thereby simulating a daily and hourly power balance process of the power system, and obtaining operation conditions of each power generation resource and system operation cost under different unit access scenarios;

[0008] Based on the recoverable benefits of the reliability power source capacity and the investment cost of the reliability power source, the investment cost recovery shortage of the reliability power source matched with the new energy is quantified;

[0009] The time sequence production simulation model adopts the following objective function:

[0010]

[0011] Wherein, T is a set of scheduling time periods; t is the number of scheduling time periods; I g , I h , I r are sets of thermal power units, hydropower units and new energy units respectively; i g , i h , i r represent the numbers of the thermal power units, the hydropower units and the new energy units respectively; D is a set of loads; d represents the number of the loads; b coal is the generation cost of the thermal power units; are the up / down reserve costs of the thermal power units respectively; and are the start / stop costs of the thermal power units; b hy is the hydropower operation cost; are the up / down reserve costs of the hydropower units respectively; b cur is the abandoned wind and light cost; b loss is the load shedding penalty cost; is the thermal power unit output; is the hydropower unit output; are the up reserve capacities reserved by the thermal power and hydropower units respectively; are the down reserve capacities reserved by the thermal power and hydropower units respectively; is the abandoned wind and light amount; P loss,d,t is the load shedding amount.

[0012] The application further comprises the following preferred schemes:

[0013] The calculation of the reliability power capacity required by each new energy unit further comprises:

[0014] The simulation scheduling result of the system within one year is obtained through the time sequence production simulation model, and the reliability power capacity required by each new energy unit is determined according to the new energy output and the system load shedding in each period.

[0015] The calculation of the reliability power capacity required by each new energy unit further comprises:

[0016] When load shedding occurs, if each new energy unit can meet the load demand when outputting at the same proportion k, the maximum value of the difference between the actual output of the single new energy unit and the output at the proportion is the reliability power capacity required by the unit.

[0017] The quantification of the investment cost recovery shortage of the reliability power matched by the new energy further comprises:

[0018] The power gap P x,t caused by the random fluctuation of the new energy at time t is obtained. The actual output of each new energy unit at time t is If each unit outputs at the proportion k according to its own capacity, the power gap is just met, and k is represented as follows:

[0019]

[0020] The actual output of the new energy unit i rx at time t is The output of the thermal power unit constructed in matching with the new energy unit i rx at time t when the output is insufficient due to the random fluctuation of the new energy is calculated.

[0021]

[0022] The thermal power capacity required by each new energy unit to be constructed in matching is calculated

[0023]

[0024] The investment cost shortage of the reliability power required by the new energy to be borne is calculated:

[0025]

[0026] Wherein, T represents a set of scheduling periods. The investment cost shortage of the reliability power required by the new energy unit i r to be borne is represented as: represents new energy unit i r The unit investment cost of the supporting construction of thermal power generation includes construction cost and operation cost, represents new energy unit i r The profit obtained by the supporting construction of thermal power in the electric energy market for generating one unit of electricity.

[0027] The time sequence production simulation model meets the load balance constraint:

[0028]

[0029] Where P d,t is the load demand at t; is the power generation of new energy unit i r at t.

[0030] The time sequence production simulation model meets the load shedding constraint:

[0031]

[0032] Where P d,t,p is the predicted load demand, and P d,t,r is the actual satisfied load demand.

[0033] The time sequence production simulation model meets the unit ramping related constraint:

[0034]

[0035] Where, and are the up / down ramping capabilities of thermal power units; and are the up / down ramping capabilities of hydroelectric units; is a 0-1 variable, indicating the start / stop state of the thermal power unit.

[0036] The application also discloses a new energy unit supporting reliability power investment cost recovery gap quantification system using the aforementioned new energy unit supporting reliability power investment cost recovery gap quantification method, comprising:

[0037] A reliability power capacity determination module is used to determine the power gap generated in the case of insufficient new energy power generation capacity according to the time sequence production simulation model operation scheduling result, and calculate the reliability power capacity required by each new energy unit based on the power gap; the time sequence production simulation model makes scheduling decisions for the power system under the condition of considering load demand and new energy time sequence output change, thereby simulating the daily and hourly power balance process of the power system, and obtaining the operation of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios.

[0038] An investment cost recovery shortage quantification module is configured to quantify a new energy supporting reliability power investment cost recovery shortage based on a recoverable benefit of the reliability power capacity and an investment cost of the reliability power;

[0039] The time sequence production simulation model adopts the following objective function:

[0040]

[0041] Wherein, T is a set of scheduling periods; t is the number of scheduling periods; I g , I h , I r are sets of thermal power units, hydropower units and new energy units respectively; i g , i h , i r represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units and new energy units respectively; D is a set of loads; d represents the number of loads; b coal is the generation cost of the thermal power unit; are the up / down reserve costs of the thermal power unit respectively; and are the start / stop costs of the thermal power unit; b hy is the operation cost of the hydropower unit; are the up / down reserve costs of the hydropower unit respectively; b cur is the wind and light curtailment cost; b loss is the load shedding penalty cost; is the output of the thermal power unit; is the output of the hydropower unit; are the up reserve capacities reserved by the thermal and hydropower units respectively; are the down reserve capacities reserved by the thermal and hydropower units respectively; is the wind and light curtailment amount; P loss,d,t is the load shedding amount.

[0042] Correspondingly, the application also discloses a terminal, comprising a processor and a storage medium;

[0043] The storage medium is used for storing instructions;

[0044] The processor is used for operating according to the instructions to perform the steps of the new energy unit supporting reliability power investment cost recovery shortage quantification method.

[0045] Correspondingly, the application also discloses a computer readable storage medium, which stores a computer program, and the program is executed by a processor to realize the steps of the new energy unit supporting reliability power investment cost recovery shortage quantification method.

[0046] The application has the beneficial effect that, compared with the prior art, the application provides a quantitative method and system for recovering the investment cost of a reliability power source matched with a new energy unit, and realizes reasonable quantification of the cost of the reliability power source matched with the new energy unit in combination with power system operation scene simulation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0047] Figure 1 is a quantitative mechanism diagram for recovering the investment cost of a reliability power source matched with a single new energy unit in the application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0048] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the application clearer, the technical scheme of the application will be described clearly and completely below in combination with the drawings in the embodiments of the application.

[0049] The embodiments described in the application are only embodiments of part of the application, rather than all embodiments. Other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative labor based on the spirit of the application also belong to the protection scope of the application.

[0050] In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the application proposes a quantitative method and system for recovering the investment cost of a reliability power source matched with a new energy unit, measures the reliability power source capacity required to be matched with a single new energy, measures the recoverable cost of the matched reliability power source, and finally quantifies the investment cost recovery shortage of the reliability power source matched with the single new energy.

[0051] Taking a wind turbine as an example, first, a scene of high-proportion new energy access without sufficient reliability power source is constructed, second, the power gap caused by insufficient power generation capacity due to random fluctuation of new energy is calculated in combination with a time-series production simulation model; then, the reliability power unit capacity required to be matched with each new energy unit and the power generation capacity of the matched reliability power source are calculated; finally, the recoverable benefits and construction investment cost of the matched reliability power source in the energy market are calculated, and the cost recovery shortage of the matched reliability power source borne by the new energy is analyzed.

[0052] New energy power generation has random fluctuation, and the system needs to be matched with a reliable power source in the case of insufficient power supply capacity. The matched reliable power source will generate additional construction cost, and it is assumed that this part of the reliable power source only supplements power generation when the new energy power generation capacity is insufficient to make up for the power gap, and it can recover a certain income in the energy market, so the investment cost shortage of the matched reliability power source borne by the new energy is the difference between the investment cost of the matched reliable power source and the recoverable cost in the energy market.

[0053] The quantification method for the shortfall in the recovery of the investment cost of the reliability power supply supporting new energy units disclosed in the present invention includes the following steps:

[0054] Step 1: According to the operation scheduling results of the chronological production simulation model, determine the power gap generated when the new energy power generation capacity is insufficient, and calculate the reliability power supply capacity required for each new energy unit based on the power gap.

[0055] Specifically, according to historical data, select the power generation curves of multiple typical years of new energy for operation scheduling simulation.

[0056] Obtain the simulation scheduling results of the system within one year through chronological production, and determine the reliability power supply capacity required for each new energy unit according to the new energy output and the system load shedding situation in each period.

[0057] Preferably, the principle for determining the reliability power supply capacity of each new energy unit is: when load shedding occurs, if each new energy unit can output at the same ratio k and can meet the load demand, the maximum value of the difference between the actual output of a single new energy unit and the output at this ratio is the reliability power supply capacity required for this unit.

[0058] The chronological production simulation model can make long-term and fine-time-scale scheduling decisions for the power system under the conditions of considering load demand and the change of new energy chronological output, so as to simulate the daily and hourly power balance process of the power system, obtain the operation conditions of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios, and lay a foundation for quantifying the cost of the reliability power supply supporting new energy.

[0059] Step 2: Quantify the shortfall in the recovery of the investment cost of the reliability power supply supporting new energy based on the recoverable benefits of the reliability power supply capacity and the investment cost of the reliability power supply.

[0060] [[ID=二十一]]In the scheduling model, the supporting thermal power is only output when the new energy generation shortage leads to the inability to meet the load demand, and benefits in the energy market. Calculate the difference between the recoverable benefits of the thermal power with the reliability power supply capacity of this part of the supporting construction and the construction investment cost (in the case where the construction cost is greater), and this value is the shortfall in the recovery of the reliability power supply cost that new energy needs to bear.

[0061] As Figure 1 shown, due to the random fluctuation of new energy, the power gap at time t is P x,t , and the capacities of each new energy unit are respectively The actual output at time t is Assume that each unit can just meet the power gap when outputting at the ratio k according to its own capacity, then k is expressed as follows:

[0062] <00002

[0063] New energy unit i rx The actual output at time t is The thermal power unit that needs to be built in conjunction with the new energy unit i rx The output at time t when the random fluctuation leads to insufficient output is represented as follows:

[0064]

[0065] The thermal power capacity that each new energy unit needs to build in conjunction with is represented as:

[0066]

[0067] The investment cost shortage of the supporting reliability power source that the new energy needs to bear is calculated as follows:

[0068]

[0069] Wherein, T represents the set of scheduling time periods; The new energy unit i r needs to bear the supporting reliability power investment cost shortage, The new energy unit i r The unit investment cost of the thermal power built in conjunction, including the construction cost and the operation cost, The new energy unit i r The profit that the thermal power built in conjunction can obtain in the electric energy market for generating unit electric quantity.

[0070] The daily scheduling decision model adopted by the time sequence production simulation model link of the application is as follows (the scheduling granularity is 1h):

[0071] The objective function is defined as:

[0072]

[0073] Wherein, T is the set of scheduling time periods (i.e. 24h); t is the number of scheduling time periods; I g , I h , I r are the sets of thermal power units, hydropower units and new energy units respectively; i g , i h , i r represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units and new energy units respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of loads; b coal is the power generation cost of the thermal power unit; are the upper / lower standby costs of the thermal power unit respectively; and are the start / stop costs of the thermal power unit; bhy is the water power operation cost; are the upper / lower reserve costs of the water turbine generator, respectively;b cur is the wind and light abandoned cost;b loss is the load shedding penalty cost; is the thermal power output; is the water turbine output; are the upper reserve capacities reserved by the thermal and water turbine generators, respectively; are the lower reserve capacities reserved by the thermal and water turbine generators, respectively; is the wind and light abandoned amount;P loss,d,t is the load shedding amount.

[0074] Define operation constraints, including load balance constraints, load shedding constraints, system reserve constraints, unit ramping related constraints, new energy output constraints and new energy wind and light abandoned constraints.

[0075] Load balance constraints:

[0076]

[0077] where P d,t is the load demand at time t; is the power generation of the new energy unit i r at time t.

[0078] Load shedding constraints:

[0079]

[0080] where P d,t,p is the predicted load demand, and P d,t,r is the actual satisfied load demand.

[0081] System reserve constraints:

[0082]

[0083] where, are the system upper / lower reserve demands, respectively; are the upper / lower reserve demand coefficients caused by unit load demand, respectively; are the upper / lower reserve demand coefficients caused by unit new energy output, respectively.R up ig , R up ih represent the upper reserve amounts provided by thermal and water power, respectively, R down ig , R down ih represent the lower reserve amounts provided by thermal and water power, respectively. By adjusting The size of the new energy random fluctuation can represent the strength of the new energy random fluctuation, and then the influence of the new energy random fluctuation on the system operation cost can be analyzed, so as to decouple and quantify the environmental protection value generated by the clean generation of new energy and the environmental protection value lost due to random fluctuation.

[0084] Unit climbing related constraints:

[0085]

[0086] wherein, and are the up / down climbing capabilities of the thermal power unit; and are the up / down climbing capabilities of the hydropower unit; is a 0-1 variable, representing the start / stop state of the thermal power unit.

[0087] New energy output constraint:

[0088]

[0089] wherein, is the predicted output of the new energy unit i r at the t period.

[0090] New energy curtailment constraint:

[0091]

[0092] P ir，t，cur calculates the new energy unit i r curtailment power at t time;

[0093] In addition to the above constraints, the dispatching decision model also needs to meet the following common operation constraints, which are not described here: the system needs to meet the line flow constraint; the thermal power unit needs to meet the output upper and lower limit constraint, start / stop constraint; the hydropower unit needs to meet the output upper and lower limit constraint, reservoir capacity constraint, water-electricity conversion constraint, etc.; the daily dispatching needs to meet the connection constraint of adjacent dispatching periods across days (for example, the initial start / stop state of the thermal power unit of the current day should be the start / stop state of the thermal power unit of the last dispatching period of the previous day).

[0094] The method of the present application will be further described below in combination with specific embodiments.

[0095] (1) Data acquisition

[0096] The present application carries out example analysis by using a modified typical system. The system includes 6 thermal power units, 1 hydropower unit and 3 wind power units. The load is obtained by scaling the actual load data of a provincial power grid in China, with the highest load being 270 MW and the lowest load being 60 MW. The operation parameters of the thermal power unit, the hydropower unit and the wind power unit are shown in Table 1, wherein G represents the thermal power unit; H represents the hydropower unit; and W represents the wind power unit.

[0097] Table 1 Parameters of each energy unit

[0098]

[0099] W1-W3 are the predicted power generation curves of one year, which are collected from three actual wind turbine units and have different random fluctuations.

[0100] (2) Simulation scheduling

[0101] A time sequence production simulation model is performed with one year as a total scheduling period and one hour as a scheduling interval to obtain scheduling results of 8760 hours in a year. Through the time sequence production simulation model, the load shedding at each time and the output of each wind turbine unit can be obtained. According to the new energy matching reliability power investment cost recovery shortage quantification method provided in the application, the lack of power generation of each wind turbine unit when load shedding is calculated, and then the maximum lack of power generation and the total lack of power generation of each wind turbine unit in a year are obtained.

[0102] In the simulation operation scheduling results, the maximum lack of power generation and the total lack of power generation of each wind turbine unit are shown in the following table:

[0103] Table 2 Maximum lack of power generation and total lack of power generation of each wind turbine unit

[0104] Machine group Maximum missing generated power (MW) Total missing generated energy (MWh) W1 5.93 119.04 W2 13.28 405.50 W3 20.23 523.35

[0105] (3) Cost quantification analysis

[0106] It is assumed that the capacity of each new energy unit is equal to the capacity of the thermal power unit with the maximum lack of power generation to make up for the power generation that cannot be met by the new energy. With the annual investment of 100,000 yuan / MW of the thermal power unit and the profit of 150 yuan / MWh that can be obtained by the thermal power unit in the electricity market, the cost recovery shortage of the matching reliability power that should be borne by each wind turbine unit can be calculated as shown in Table 3:

[0107] Table 3 Cost calculation of the matching reliability power that should be borne by each wind turbine unit

[0108]

[0109] The simulation results show that there is a large difference in the reliability power cost that should be borne by the three units due to the difference in their own power generation capacity. Since the income that can be obtained by the matching reliability power in the electricity market is limited, the reliability power cost that should be borne by the wind turbine unit is mainly caused by the reliability power capacity that should be equipped due to the maximum lack of power generation.

[0110] The application has the beneficial effect that, compared with the prior art, the application provides a quantitative method and system for investment cost recovery shortage of a new energy unit supporting reliability power supply, and realizes reasonable quantitative cost of the new energy supporting reliability power supply in combination with power system operation scene simulation.

[0111] The application can be a system, a method and / or a computer program product.

[0112] The reliability power supply capacity determination module is configured to determine a power gap generated in the case of insufficient new energy power generation capacity according to a time sequence production simulation model operation scheduling result, and calculate the reliability power supply capacity required to be supported by each new energy unit based on the power gap; the time sequence production simulation model performs scheduling decision on the power system under the condition of considering load demand and new energy time sequence output change, thereby simulating the daily and hourly power balance process of the power system, and obtaining the operation condition of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios.

[0113] The investment cost recovery shortage quantitative module is configured to quantify the investment cost recovery shortage of the new energy supporting reliability power supply based on the recoverable benefits of the reliability power supply capacity and the investment cost of the reliability power supply.

[0114] The time sequence production simulation model adopts the following objective function:

[0115]

[0116] Wherein, T is a set of scheduling time periods; t is the number of scheduling time periods; I g , I h , I r are sets of thermal power units, hydropower units and new energy units respectively; i g , i h , i r represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydropower units and new energy units respectively; D is a set of loads; d represents the number of loads; b coal is the generation cost of the thermal power unit; are the up / down reserve costs of the thermal power unit respectively; and are the start / stop costs of the thermal power unit; b hy is the operation cost of the hydropower unit; are the up / down reserve costs of the hydropower unit respectively; b cur is the wind and light abandonment cost; bloss Penalty cost for cutting load; Output of thermal power unit; Output of hydroelectric unit; Upper backup capacity reserved for thermal and hydroelectric units respectively; Lower backup capacity reserved for thermal and hydroelectric units respectively; Wind and light abandoned amount of new energy; loss,d,t Amount of cutting load.

[0117] Based on the spirit of the present application, those skilled in the art can easily think of a computer program product based on the aforementioned quantification method of the investment cost recovery shortage of the new energy unit supporting reliability power supply. The computer program product can include a computer readable storage medium, which loads computer readable program instructions for enabling a processor to implement various aspects of the present disclosure. That is, the present application also includes a terminal including a processor and a storage medium; the storage medium is used to store instructions; the processor is used to operate according to the instructions to perform the steps of the aforementioned quantification method of the investment cost recovery shortage of the new energy unit supporting reliability power supply.

[0118] The computer readable storage medium can be a tangible device that can retain and store instructions for use by an instruction execution device. The computer readable storage medium can be, for example but not limited to, an electronic storage device, a magnetic storage device, an optical storage device, an electromagnetic storage device, a semiconductor storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of the computer readable storage medium include a portable computer diskette, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), a static random access memory (SRAM), a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), a digital versatile disk (DVD), a memory stick, a floppy disk, a mechanical encoding device, such as a punch card or a hole-in-pole structure having instructions stored thereon, and any suitable combination of the foregoing. The computer readable storage medium used herein is not to be interpreted as a transitory signal per se, such as radio waves or other freely propagating electromagnetic waves, electromagnetic waves propagating through a waveguide or other transmission medium (for example, optical pulses through an optical fiber cable), or electrical signals transmitted through a wire.

[0119] The computer readable program instructions described herein can be downloaded to respective computing / processing devices from a computer readable storage medium or to an external computer or external storage device via a network, for example, the Internet, a local area network, a wide area network and / or a wireless network. The network can comprise copper transmission cables, optical transmission fibers, wireless transmission, routers, firewalls, switches, gateway computers and / or edge servers. A network adapter card or network interface in each computing / processing device receives computer readable program instructions from the network and forwards the computer readable program instructions for storage in a computer readable storage medium within the respective computing / processing device.

[0120] Computer readable program instructions for carrying out operations of the present disclosure can be assembly instructions, instruction-set-architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions, machine dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions, state-setting data, or either source code or object code written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including an object oriented programming language such as Smalltalk, C++ or the like, and conventional procedural programming languages, such as the "C" programming language or similar programming languages. The computer readable program instructions can execute entirely on the user's computing device, partly on the user's computing device, as a stand-alone software package, partly on the user's computing device and partly on a remote computing device or entirely on the remote computing device or server. In the latter scenario, the remote computing device can be connected to the user's computing device through any kind of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or the connection can be made to an external computing device, for example, through the Internet using an Internet Service Provider. In some embodiments, electronic circuitry including, for example, programmable logic circuitry, field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA), or programmable logic arrays (PLA) can execute the computer readable program instructions by utilizing state information of the computer readable program instructions to personalize the electronic circuitry, in order to perform aspects of the present disclosure.

[0121] Finally, it should be noted that the above-mentioned embodiments are merely intended for describing and illustrating, not limiting the technical solutions of the present application. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the specific embodiments of the present application can be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application, and any modification or equivalent replacement without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application should be covered within the protection scope of the claims of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for quantifying the investment cost recovery gap of a reliability power supply matched with a new energy unit, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: According to the scheduling result of the time sequence production simulation model, the power gap generated in the case of insufficient new energy power generation capacity is determined, and the reliability power supply capacity required by each new energy unit is calculated based on the power gap; The time sequence production simulation model makes scheduling decisions for the power system under the condition of considering the changes of load demand and new energy time sequence output, thereby simulating the daily and hourly power balance process of the power system, and obtaining the operation of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios; The recoverable benefits of the reliability power supply capacity and the investment cost of the reliability power supply are used to quantify the investment cost recovery shortage of the new energy supporting reliability power supply; The time sequence production simulation model adopts the following objective function: Wherein, T is a set of scheduling periods; t is the number of scheduling period; I g , I h , I r are the sets of thermal power units, hydro power units and new energy units, respectively; i g , i h , i r are the numbers of thermal power units, hydro power units and new energy units, respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of loads; b coal is the generation cost of thermal power units; are the up / down reserve costs of thermal power units, respectively; and are the start / stop costs of thermal power units; b hy is the operation cost of hydro power; are the up / down reserve costs of hydro power units, respectively; b cur is the wind and light curtailment cost; b loss is the load shedding penalty cost; is the output of thermal power units; is the output of hydro power units; are the up reserve capacities reserved by thermal and hydro power units, respectively; are the down reserve capacities reserved by thermal and hydro power units, respectively; is the wind and light curtailment amount; P loss,d,t is the load shedding amount.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by, The calculation of the reliability power supply capacity required by each new energy unit further comprises: The simulation scheduling result of the system within one year is obtained through the time sequence production simulation model, and the reliability power supply capacity required by each new energy unit is determined according to the new energy output and system load shedding in each period.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the method is characterized by, The calculation of the reliability power supply capacity required by each new energy unit further comprises: When load shedding occurs, if each new energy unit can meet the load demand when outputting at the same proportion k, then the maximum value of the difference between the actual output of the single new energy unit and the output according to the proportion is the reliability power supply capacity required by the unit.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the method is characterized by, The quantification of the investment cost recovery shortage of the new energy supporting reliability power supply further comprises: The power gap P at time t is caused by the random fluctuation of new energy x,t The capacity of each new energy unit is The actual output at time t is If each unit meets the power gap by outputting a proportion k of its capacity, then k is represented as follows: New energy unit i rx The actual output at time t is The output of the thermal power unit supporting the construction of new energy unit i rx The output at time t when the random fluctuation causes insufficient output: Calculating the capacity of thermal power units needed to be built for each new energy unit The investment cost recovery shortage of the new energy supporting reliability power supply is calculated: wherein T represents a set of scheduling periods; represents the new energy unit i r The investment cost of the supporting reliability power supply, represents the new energy unit i r The unit investment cost of the supporting thermal power generation, including construction cost and operation cost, represents the new energy unit i r The profit obtained by the supporting thermal power in the electricity market for generating one unit of electricity.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein the method is characterized by, The time sequence production simulation model meets the load balance constraint: where P d,t is the load demand at time t; is the power generation of new energy unit i r at time t.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the method is characterized by, The time sequence production simulation model meets the load shedding constraint: where P d,t,p is the predicted load demand, P d,t,r is the actual load demand satisfied.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the method is characterized by, The time sequence production simulation model meets the unit climbing related constraint: wherein, and is the up / down ramping ability of the thermal power unit; and is the up / down ramping ability of the hydroelectric power unit; is a 0-1 variable, indicating the start-stop state of the thermal power unit.

8. A new energy unit matching reliability power investment cost recovery shortage quantification system, characterized in that, It comprises: A reliability power supply capacity determination module is configured to determine the power gap generated in the case of insufficient new energy power generation capacity according to the scheduling result of the time sequence production simulation model, and calculate the reliability power supply capacity required by each new energy unit based on the power gap; The time sequence production simulation model makes scheduling decisions for the power system under the condition of considering the changes of load demand and new energy time sequence output, thereby simulating the daily and hourly power balance process of the power system, and obtaining the operation of each power generation resource and the system operation cost under different unit access scenarios; An investment cost recovery shortage quantification module is configured to quantify the investment cost recovery shortage of the new energy supporting reliability power supply based on the recoverable benefits of the reliability power supply capacity and the investment cost of the reliability power supply; The time sequence production simulation model adopts the following objective function: Wherein, T is a set of scheduling periods; t is the number of scheduling period; I g h r are the sets of thermal power units, hydro power units and new energy units, respectively; i g h r represent the numbers of thermal power units, hydro power units and new energy units, respectively; D is the set of loads; d represents the number of loads; b coal is the generation cost of thermal power units; are the up / down reserve costs of thermal power units, respectively; and are the start / stop costs of thermal power units; b hy is the operation cost of hydro power; are the up / down reserve costs of hydro power units, respectively; b cur is the wind and light curtailment cost; b loss is the load shedding penalty cost; is the output of thermal power units; is the output of hydro power units; are the up reserve capacities reserved by thermal and hydro power units, respectively; are the down reserve capacities reserved by thermal and hydro power units, respectively; is the wind and light curtailment amount; P loss,d,t is the load shedding amount.​​​​ 9. A terminal comprising a processor and a storage medium; characterized in that: The storage medium is used to store instructions; The processor is configured to operate according to the instructions to perform the steps of the quantification method of the investment cost recovery shortage of the new energy unit supporting reliability power supply according to any one of claims 1-7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, characterized in that, The program is executed by the processor to realize the steps of the quantitative method for the new energy unit matching reliability power supply investment cost recovery shortage according to any one of claims 1-7.

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