Active prevention method and system before disaster in urban power grid with high proportion of new energy

Abstract

A method and system for active prevention before disasters in urban power grids with a high proportion of renewable energy sources, wherein active prevention measures before disasters in power grids are set within a decision-making window, including mobile emergency power supply dispatching, network topology adjustment and combined dispatching of power output; an active prevention decision model is established based on a three-layer model structure, including: an upper-layer prevention model with the cost of mobile emergency power supply dispatching as the objective function, a middle-layer attack model consisting of power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, and a lower-layer prevention model with the sum of load loss and power abandonment loss under the combined dispatching of network topology adjustment and power output as the objective function; wherein the constraints of the objective function of the lower-layer prevention model include: topology constraints of a multi-island power grid model, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints and inertia constraints; an active prevention decision model is used to determine an active prevention plan before a power grid disaster, and continuous and stable operation control of active islands formed in urban power grids is achieved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of new energy control technology, and in particular, relates to a method and system for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities where new energy accounts for a high proportion. Background Art

[0002] At present, the installed capacity of new energy in my country is increasing year by year. In the northwest region, new energy has become the main source of electricity. However, new energy has problems such as insufficient tolerance to low frequency and low voltage and low inertia. When encountering extreme external disasters with low probability and high risk such as typhoons, ice cover, heavy rain, and continuous high temperature, it is easy to cause inevitable large-scale power outages, causing large economic losses and social impacts. Through active prevention before the disaster, emergency resistance during the disaster process, and rapid recovery of the power outage system after the disaster, the impact of disaster events on the power system can be reduced at different stages, the system's disaster response capability can be enhanced, and the resilience of the power system can be improved. Among them, active prevention before the disaster has more sufficient response time, which can not only mobilize resources to control the scope of the disaster according to the consequences that may be caused by the disaster, but also enrich the control methods in the subsequent disaster and post-disaster processes, and relieve the pressure of subsequent control.

[0003] Pre-disaster active prevention is essentially to reserve or set aside deployable resources in advance, thereby improving the ability of urban power grids to respond to future disasters and enhancing the level of risk resistance of power systems. Existing pre-disaster active defense mainly takes planning or control measures in advance for the impact of extreme natural disasters such as typhoons and floods. In order of implementation time, they include: system planning for related disasters, such as configuring black start power supplies to improve the self-starting ability of the system or improving the grid to enhance the tolerance of the system; before the disaster occurs, deploy mobile emergency power supplies to ensure power supply for weak links in the system power supply, or deploy maintenance personnel and materials to reinforce equipment, improve equipment operation status, and reduce the probability of equipment failure; when the disaster is approaching, the direct and indirect impact of the disaster on the system is further reduced by adjusting the system operation mode such as changing the grid topology or power output. However, few studies have started from the time scale of pre-disaster prevention strategies and coordinated multiple types of short-term prevention strategies to optimize the unit cost-effectiveness of prevention. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for active pre-disaster prevention of urban power grids with a high proportion of renewable energy, which can realize continuous and stable operation control of active islands formed by urban power grids, coordinate multiple types of short-term prevention strategies, and achieve optimal unit cost-effectiveness of prevention.

[0005] The present invention adopts the following technical solution.

[0006] The present invention proposes a proactive disaster prevention method for urban power grids with a high proportion of renewable energy, comprising:

[0007] Set the length of the decision window for the proactive prevention plan before a power grid disaster; set proactive prevention measures before a power grid disaster within the decision window, including combined dispatching of mobile emergency power supply, network topology adjustment and power output;

[0008] Obtain the control mode of each power source in the power grid; based on the master-slave control method, use the power source in the voltage and frequency control mode as the master power source, and use the power source in the non-voltage and frequency control mode as the slave power source to form a multi-power network island; construct a multi-island power grid model using the multi-power network island; establish the topology constraints, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints and inertia constraints of the multi-island power grid model;

[0009] Based on the three-layer model structure, an active prevention decision model is established, including: an upper-layer prevention model with the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch as the objective function, a middle-layer attack model consisting of power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, and a lower-layer prevention model with the sum of load loss and power abandonment loss under the combined dispatch of network topology adjustment and power output as the objective function; among which, the constraints of the objective function of the lower-layer prevention model include: topology constraints of the multi-island power grid model, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints, and inertia constraints;

[0010] The network topology adjustment dispatching instructions and power output dispatching instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model are used as the first decision variable and fed back to the middle-level attack model; the middle-level attack model uses the shutdown line state corresponding to the maximum load loss as the second decision variable, and the first decision variable and the second decision variable are fed back to the upper-level prevention model together; the mobile emergency power dispatching instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the upper-level prevention model and the network topology adjustment dispatching instructions and power output dispatching instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model are used as active prevention plans before power grid disasters.

[0011] Preferably, the length of the proactive prevention decision-making window before a power grid disaster is 12 hours.

[0012] Preferably, the control mode of each power supply in the power grid is obtained; based on the master-slave control mode, the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode is used as the master power supply, and the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode is used as the slave power supply to form a multi-power supply network island, and the multi-power supply network island is used to construct a multi-island power grid model, including:

[0013] Obtain the control mode of each power source in the multi-island power grid, including voltage and frequency control modes;

[0014] Based on the master-slave control mode, the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode is used as the master power supply, and the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode is used as the slave power supply to form a multi-power network island, satisfying the following relationship:

[0015] ,

[0016] In the formula, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode , ,……, They are respectively power supply 1, ..., power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode , Networking multiple power sources to form an island The total number of power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes;

[0017] Construct the node set of the networking path corresponding to the multi-power network island, which satisfies the following relationship:

[0018] ,

[0019] In the formula, Networking multiple power sources to form an island The set of nodes that the corresponding networking path passes through, To access the power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Nodes, ,……, Connect to the power supply in non-voltage and frequency control modes respectively ,……, Nodes, ,……, The power supply in voltage and frequency control mode respectively Power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode ,……, Nodes without power access along the networking path;

[0020] The multi-island power grid model is constructed by using multiple power supply network islands to satisfy the following relationship:

[0021] ,

[0022] In the formula, To utilize the power grid model constructed by multi-power network island, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, , It is the total number of islands in multi-power network, and also the total number of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode.

[0023] Preferably, the topological constraints of the multi-island power grid model include:

[0024] 1) The power constraints in voltage and frequency control mode satisfy the following relationship:

[0025] ,

[0026] In the formula, For power supplies that are not in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply Power supply in voltage and frequency control mode m , It is a collection of power supplies in voltage and frequency control modes;

[0027] 2) The power constraints in non-voltage and frequency control mode satisfy the following relationship:

[0028] ,

[0029] In the formula, It is a power supply in voltage and frequency control mode. Multi-power network island with main power supply Power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode , For multi-power network island The corresponding network path passes through the node set of the access power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode Nodes;

[0030] 3) The internal constraints of the multi-island power grid model satisfy the following relationship:

[0031] ,

[0032] ,

[0033] In the formula, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, , It is the total number of islands in the multi-power network, and also the total number of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode. is an empty set, is a collection of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode, A collection of power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes.

[0034] Preferably, the short-circuit capacity ratio constraint condition of the multi-island power grid model satisfies the following relationship:

[0035] ,

[0036] In the formula, is the lower limit of the short-circuit capacity ratio, Nodes in multi-island power grid The total installed capacity of the power sources connected in non-voltage and frequency control mode, Removing nodes from multi-island power grids All power supplies except those in non-voltage and frequency control mode are connected to the node The total short-circuit capacity provided, Nodes in multi-island power grid The power supply connected to the node in non-voltage and frequency control mode The total short-circuit capacity provided;

[0037] Among them, in multi-island power grid, except for nodes All power supplies except those in non-voltage and frequency control mode are connected to the node The total short-circuit capacity provided satisfies the following relationship:

[0038] ,

[0039] In the formula, , They are respectively the nodes in the multi-island power grid except The amplitude and impedance of all power sources other than those connected in non-voltage and frequency control modes;

[0040] In addition, in multi-island power grids, The impedance of all power supplies other than the power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes meets the following relationship:

[0041] ,

[0042] In the formula, is the set of all nodes connected to the power supply in the multi-island power grid, For nodes connected to power supply in multi-island power grid, For Node The power supply connected to the node The transfer impedance of

[0043] In addition to nodes in multi-island power grid The amplitudes of all power supplies other than the power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes satisfy the following relationship:

[0044] ,

[0045] In the formula, Nodes in multi-island power grid The amplitude of the power supply connected at

[0046] node The power supply connected to the node The transfer impedance satisfies the following relationship:

[0047] ,

[0048] In the formula, For Node The self-impedance For Node To Node The mutual impedance of For Node The impedance of the power supply connected at ;

[0049] Nodes in multi-island power grid The power supply connected to the node in non-voltage and frequency control mode The total short-circuit capacity provided satisfies the following relationship:

[0050] ,

[0051] In the formula, , They are nodes in multi-island power grids. The magnitude and impedance of the power supply connected in non-voltage and frequency control mode.

[0052] Preferably, the inertia constraint condition of the multi-island power grid model satisfies the following relationship:

[0053] ,

[0054] ,

[0055] In the formula, is the load recovery amount of a single time step in a multi-island power grid; is the equivalent inertia time constant of multi-island power grid; , are the upper and lower limits of the frequency change rate, respectively. is the total number of power sources in the multi-island grid; , Power supply for power supply island Rated capacity and inertia time constant.

[0056] Preferably, the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch is the total transportation cost of implementing the mobile emergency power dispatch plan before the disaster, satisfying the following relationship:

[0057] ;

[0058] In the formula, is the objective function of the upper prevention model, For mobile emergency power supply collection, A collection of candidate connection points for mobile emergency power supply for the power system; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The unit distance transportation cost is affected by the mobile emergency power supply. Transport to candidate connection point The impact of traffic sections and their congestion; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points Occupancy costs; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The transport path distance, is the initial time of dispatching the mobile emergency power supply, It is the arrival time of the mobile emergency power supply at the candidate connection point.

[0059] Preferably, the constraints of the objective function of the upper prevention model include:

[0060] 1) The number of mobile emergency power supplies that the candidate connection point is allowed to connect to must satisfy the following relationship:

[0061] ,

[0062] In the formula, For the period Candidate connection points The number of mobile emergency power supplies connected, Represents a candidate connection point The upper limit of the number of mobile emergency power supplies allowed to be connected;

[0063] 2) A mobile emergency power supply can only select one candidate connection point to access the constraint, satisfying the following relationship:

[0064] ,

[0065] In the formula, For mobile emergency power supply Access candidate connection points The state variables, Indicates mobile emergency power supply Access candidate connection points , Indicates mobile emergency power supply No candidate connection point is connected .

[0066] Preferably, the power outage scenario under natural disasters satisfies the following relationship:

[0067] ;

[0068] ;

[0069] In the formula, For power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, To characterize the period Whether natural disasters have a negative impact on the line The 0-1 discrete uncertainty variable that causes the impact, Indicates line The company was shut down due to natural disasters. Indicates line The company continued to operate normally without being affected by natural disasters. is the maximum impact of natural disasters on the power system, Indicates line Belongs to the collection of lines affected by natural disasters , Indicates line Belongs to the collection of lines not affected by natural disasters .

[0070] Preferably, the objective function of the lower prevention model satisfies the following relationship:

[0071] ,

[0072] In the formula, is the objective function of the lower prevention model, is the set of power system nodes, For Node Load in period The unit load loss, For Node Power on during the period The unit power loss is For the period node The amount of load loss, For the period node of wasted electricity, is the initial time of dispatching the mobile emergency power supply, It is the end time of the combined scheduling of network topology adjustment and power output.

[0073] Preferably, the constraint conditions of the objective function of the lower prevention model also include: power flow constraint conditions, node voltage constraint conditions, branch transmission capacity constraint conditions, and power balance constraint conditions.

[0074] The present invention also proposes a proactive disaster prevention system for urban power grids with a high proportion of new energy, comprising:

[0075] The decision preparation module is used to set the length of the decision window for the proactive prevention plan before a power grid disaster; proactive prevention measures before a power grid disaster are set within the decision window, including combined dispatching of mobile emergency power supply, network topology adjustment and power output;

[0076] The constraint condition construction module is used to obtain the control mode of each power supply in the power grid; based on the master-slave control mode, the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode is used as the master power supply, and the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode is used as the slave power supply to form a multi-power supply network island; the multi-power supply network island is used to construct a multi-island power grid model; the topology constraint conditions, short-circuit capacity ratio constraint conditions and inertia constraint conditions of the multi-island power grid model are established;

[0077] The decision model module is used to establish an active prevention decision model based on a three-layer model structure, including: an upper-layer prevention model with the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch as the objective function, a middle-layer attack model consisting of power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, and a lower-layer prevention model with the sum of load loss and power abandonment loss under the combined dispatch of network topology adjustment and power output as the objective function; wherein, the constraint conditions of the objective function of the lower-layer prevention model include: topology constraint conditions of the multi-island power grid model, short-circuit capacity ratio constraint conditions and inertia constraint conditions;

[0078] The active prevention decision-making module is used to take the network topology adjustment scheduling instructions and power output scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model as the first decision variable, and feed them back to the middle-level attack model; the middle-level attack model takes the shutdown line state corresponding to the maximum load loss as the second decision variable, and the first decision variable and the second decision variable are fed back to the upper-level prevention model together; the mobile emergency power supply scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the upper-level prevention model, and the network topology adjustment scheduling instructions and power output scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model, are used as active prevention plans before power grid disasters.

[0079] The present invention is also a terminal, comprising a processor and a storage medium; the storage medium is used to store instructions; the processor is used to operate according to the instructions to execute the steps of the method.

[0080] The present invention is also a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which implements the steps of the method when executed by a processor.

[0081] The beneficial effects of the present invention are that, compared with the prior art, at least the present invention includes: based on a multi-power source networking island operation structure, the present invention uses a power source (v / f power source) in a voltage and frequency control mode as a master power source to stabilize the voltage and frequency, and a power source (non-v / f power source) in a non-voltage and frequency control mode as a slave power source to control the output, and considers topology constraints, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints, and inertia constraints to establish an urban power grid multi-power source networking island operation constraint, thereby ensuring the continuous and stable operation of the active island formed by the urban power grid.

[0082] The present invention also establishes a three-layer active prevention decision model of prevention-attack-prevention. The upper model considers the power networking conditions to decide the mobile emergency power access location and access time. The middle model determines the extreme disaster attack scenario with the maximum load loss based on the natural disaster scenario set. The lower model optimizes the network topology and power output with the minimum system load loss based on the mobile emergency power access plan and extreme disaster attack scenario. The three-layer model iteratively coordinates multiple types of short-term prevention strategies to achieve the optimal unit cost-effectiveness of prevention. In response to the problem of active prevention before disasters in power systems with a high proportion of new energy, the present invention proposes a three-layer active prevention decision method of prevention-attack-prevention for urban power grids. The invention controls the scope and degree of disaster impact by coordinating pre-disaster prevention strategies at different time scales, thereby improving the resilience of urban power grids. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0083] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy proposed by the present invention;

[0084] Figure 2 It is a schematic block diagram of the solution process of the active prevention decision model in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0085] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical scheme of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. The embodiments described in this application are only embodiments of a part of the present invention, rather than all embodiments. Based on the spirit of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0086] The present invention proposes a proactive disaster prevention method for urban power grids with a high proportion of renewable energy. Figure 1 As shown, including:

[0087] Step 1, setting the length of the decision window of the active prevention plan before the power grid disaster; setting the active prevention measures before the power grid disaster within the decision window, including the combined scheduling of mobile emergency power supply scheduling, network topology adjustment and power output.

[0088] Specifically, proactive preventive measures before power grid disasters correspond to different time scales, including short-term time scales, medium-term time scales, and long-term time scales; in the embodiment, 24 hours is the short-term time scale, several months is the medium-term time scale, and several years is the long-term time scale. In the embodiment, preventive measures that can be implemented in a relatively short period of time and quickly solve problems are called short-term preventive measures, corresponding to the short-term time scale; preventive strategies taken to achieve long-term goals and continuous improvement are called medium- and long-term preventive measures, corresponding to the medium-term time scale and the long-term time scale.

[0089] Specifically, proactive preventive measures before power grid disasters include, but are not limited to, mobile emergency power supply dispatching, network topology adjustment, and combined dispatching of power output; technical personnel in this field may select different proactive preventive measures before power grid disasters according to actual conditions.

[0090] In the embodiment, the length of the active prevention decision window before power grid disaster is set to 12 hours.

[0091] Step 2, obtain the control mode of each power supply in the power grid; based on the master-slave control method, take the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode as the master power supply, and take the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode as the slave power supply to form a multi-power network island; use the multi-power network island to construct a multi-island power grid model; establish the topology constraints, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints and inertia constraints of the multi-island power grid model.

[0092] Specifically, step 2 includes:

[0093] Step 2.1, obtaining the control mode of each power source in the multi-island power grid, including but not limited to: voltage and frequency control mode;

[0094] Step 2.2, based on the master-slave control mode, the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode is used as the master power supply, and the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode is used as the slave power supply to form a multi-power network island, satisfying the following relationship:

[0095] ,

[0096] In the formula, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode , ,……, They are respectively power supply 1, ..., power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode , Networking multiple power sources The total number of power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes;

[0097] Step 2.3, construct the node set that the networking path corresponding to the multi-power network island passes through, satisfying the following relationship:

[0098] ,

[0099] In the formula, Networking multiple power sources to form an island The set of nodes that the corresponding networking path passes through, To access the power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Nodes, ,……, Connect to the power supply in non-voltage and frequency control modes respectively ,……, Nodes, ,……, The power supply in voltage and frequency control mode respectively Power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode ,……, The nodes without power access along the networking path.

[0100] Step 2.4, construct a multi-island power grid model using multi-power network islands to satisfy the following relationship:

[0101] ,

[0102] In the formula, To utilize the power grid model constructed by multi-power network island, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, , It is the total number of islands in multi-power network, and also the total number of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode;

[0103] Step 2.5, establish the topological constraints of the multi-island power grid model, including:

[0104] 1) The power constraints in voltage and frequency control mode satisfy the following relationship:

[0105] ,

[0106] In the formula, For power supplies that are not in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply Power supply in voltage and frequency control mode m , It is a collection of power supplies in voltage and frequency control modes;

[0107] Under the power constraints in voltage and frequency control mode, each multi-power network island has a unique power source in voltage and frequency control mode;

[0108] 2) The power constraints in non-voltage and frequency control mode satisfy the following relationship:

[0109] ,

[0110] In the formula, It is a power supply in voltage and frequency control mode. Multi-power network island with main power supply Power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode , For multi-power network island The corresponding network path passes through the node set of the access power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode Nodes;

[0111] Under the power supply constraint condition in the non-voltage and frequency control mode, the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode connected to the node passed by the networking path corresponding to the multi-power network island belongs to the multi-power network island;

[0112] 3) The internal constraints of the multi-island power grid model satisfy the following relationship:

[0113] ,

[0114] ,

[0115] In the formula, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, , It is the total number of islands in the multi-power network, and also the total number of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode. is an empty set, is a collection of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode, A collection of power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes;

[0116] There is no shared power supply between the multi-power networked islands within the multi-island power grid model. The power supply within all multi-power networked islands is the sum of the power supply under the voltage and frequency control mode and the power supply under the non-voltage and frequency control mode within the multi-island power grid model.

[0117] Step 2.6, establishing the short-circuit capacity ratio constraint condition of the multi-island power grid model;

[0118] Actively prevent the formation of multi-island power grid models that may have insufficient voltage support capacity. Ensure the voltage control capability of the power supply islands through the short-circuit capacity ratio constraint condition;

[0119] The short-circuit capacity ratio constraint of the multi-island power grid model satisfies the following relationship:

[0120] ,

[0121] In the formula, is the lower limit of the short-circuit capacity ratio, Nodes in multi-island power grid The total installed capacity of the power sources connected in non-voltage and frequency control mode, Removing nodes from multi-island power grids All power supplies except those in non-voltage and frequency control mode are connected to the node The total short-circuit capacity provided, Nodes in multi-island power grid The power supply to the node in non-voltage and frequency control mode The total short-circuit capacity provided;

[0122] Among them, in multi-island power grid, except for nodes All power supplies except those in non-voltage and frequency control mode are connected to the node The total short-circuit capacity provided satisfies the following relationship:

[0123] ,

[0124] In the formula, , They are respectively the nodes in the multi-island power grid except The amplitude and impedance of all power sources other than those connected in non-voltage and frequency control modes;

[0125] In addition, in multi-island power grids, The impedance of all power supplies other than the power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes satisfies the following relationship:

[0126] ,

[0127] In the formula, is the set of all nodes connected to the power supply in the multi-island power grid, For nodes connected to power supply in multi-island power grid, For Node The power supply connected to the node The transfer impedance of

[0128] In addition to nodes in multi-island power grid The amplitudes of all power supplies other than the power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes satisfy the following relationship:

[0129] ,

[0130] In the formula, Nodes in multi-island power grid The amplitude of the power supply connected at

[0131] node The power supply connected to the node The transfer impedance satisfies the following relationship:

[0132] ,

[0133] In the formula, For Node The self-impedance For Node To Node The mutual impedance of For Node The impedance of the power supply connected at ;

[0134] Nodes in multi-island power grid The power supply connected to the node in non-voltage and frequency control mode The total short-circuit capacity provided satisfies the following relationship:

[0135] ,

[0136] In the formula, , They are nodes in multi-island power grids. The magnitude and impedance of the power supply connected in non-voltage and frequency control mode.

[0137] Step 2.7, establish the inertia constraint conditions of the multi-island power grid model, including:

[0138] To ensure inertia safety and avoid the protection device in the power supply island from operating due to frequency change rate exceeding the limit, the multi-power network power supply island should also meet the inertia constraint;

[0139] The inertia constraint condition of the multi-island power grid model satisfies the following relationship:

[0140] ,

[0141] ,

[0142] In the formula, is the load recovery amount of a single time step in a multi-island power grid; is the equivalent inertia time constant of multi-island power grid; , are the upper and lower limits of the frequency change rate, respectively, in the embodiment, they are +0.5 Hz / s and -0.5 Hz / s, is the total number of power sources in the multi-island grid; , Power supply for power supply island Rated capacity and inertia time constant.

[0143] Step 3, based on the three-layer model structure, establish an active prevention decision-making model, including: an upper-layer prevention model with the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch as the objective function, a middle-layer attack model composed of power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, and a lower-layer prevention model with the sum of load loss and power abandonment loss under the combined dispatch of network topology adjustment and power output as the objective function; among which, the constraints of the objective function of the lower-layer prevention model include: topology constraints of the multi-island power grid model, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints and inertia constraints.

[0144] Specifically, step 3 includes:

[0145] Step 3.1, taking the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch as the objective function of the upper prevention model, and establishing the constraints of the upper prevention model;

[0146] Specifically, the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch is the total transportation cost of implementing the mobile emergency power dispatch plan before the disaster, which satisfies the following relationship:

[0147] ;

[0148] In the formula, is the objective function of the upper prevention model, For mobile emergency power supply collection, A collection of candidate connection points for mobile emergency power supply for the power system; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The unit distance transportation cost is RMB / (km·h). The unit distance transportation cost is affected by the mobile emergency power supply. Transport to candidate connection point The impact of traffic sections and their congestion; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The occupancy cost, in yuan / h; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The transport path distance, is the initial time of dispatching the mobile emergency power supply, It is the arrival time of the mobile emergency power supply at the candidate connection point.

[0149] The constraints of the objective function of the upper prevention model include:

[0150] 1) The number of mobile emergency power supplies that the candidate connection point is allowed to connect to must satisfy the following relationship:

[0151] ,

[0152] In the formula, For the period Candidate connection points The number of mobile emergency power supplies connected, Represents a candidate connection point The upper limit of the number of mobile emergency power supplies allowed to be connected;

[0153] 2) A mobile emergency power supply can only select one candidate connection point to access the constraint, satisfying the following relationship:

[0154] ,

[0155] In the formula, For mobile emergency power supply Access candidate connection points The state variables, Indicates mobile emergency power supply Access candidate connection points , Indicates mobile emergency power supply No candidate connection point is connected ;

[0156] Step 3.2, using the power outage scenario under natural disasters to construct a mid-level attack model;

[0157] In the middle-level attack model, natural disasters are used as the attacking party, and the discrete uncertainty set of the outage lines under natural disasters is used to describe the power outage scenario under natural disasters, satisfying the following relationship:

[0158] ;

[0159] ;

[0160] In the formula, For power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, To characterize the period Whether natural disasters have a negative impact on the line The 0-1 discrete uncertainty variable that causes the impact, Indicates line The company was shut down due to natural disasters. Indicates line The company continued to operate normally without being affected by natural disasters. is the maximum impact of natural disasters on the power system, Indicates line Belongs to the collection of lines affected by natural disasters , Indicates line Belongs to the collection of lines not affected by natural disasters .

[0161] In the embodiment, the maximum number of outage lines due to natural disasters is predicted based on historical data, and the ratio of the maximum number of outage lines to the total number of all lines is used as the maximum impact of the natural disaster on the power system.

[0162] Step 3.3, in the power outage scenario caused by natural disasters in the middle-level attack model, the sum of load loss and power abandonment loss is used as the objective function of the lower-level prevention model, and the constraint conditions of the lower-level prevention model are established;

[0163] In the power outage scenario of the power grid system under natural disasters in the middle-level attack model, the sum of the load loss and power abandonment loss caused by the combined scheduling of network topology adjustment and power output is used as the objective function of the lower-level prevention model, which satisfies the following relationship:

[0164] ,

[0165] In the formula, is the objective function of the lower prevention model, is the set of power system nodes, For Node Load in period The unit load loss, For Node Power on during the period The unit power loss is For the period node The amount of load loss, For the period node of wasted electricity, is the initial time of dispatching the mobile emergency power supply, It is the end time of the combined scheduling of network topology adjustment and power output.

[0166] Under the combined scheduling of network topology adjustment and power output, insufficient available power will be unable to meet the demand of the load to be restored, resulting in load loss, thereby causing load loss losses; under the combined scheduling of network topology adjustment and power output, excess available power cannot be effectively utilized, resulting in abandoned power, thereby causing abandoned power losses.

[0167] The constraints of the objective function of the lower prevention model include not only the topological constraints, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints and inertia constraints of the multi-island power grid model, but also:

[0168] 1) Flow constraints, node voltage constraints and branch transmission capacity constraints:

[0169] ,

[0170] ,

[0171] ,

[0172] In the formula, , Branch The active and reactive power transmitted, , Node ,node The voltage amplitude, , Branch The real and imaginary parts of the reciprocal impedance, For Node ,node The phase angle difference between For branch of The earth branch susceptance of the equivalent circuit of type , , Node The lower and upper limits of the voltage amplitude; For branch Maximum active power transmitted.

[0173] 2) Power balance constraints:

[0174] ,

[0175] In the formula, , Node The active power and reactive power of the power supply connected to the , Move emergency power supplies separately The active power and reactive power of , Node The active load and reactive load at the location.

[0176] Step 4: When the objective function of the lower prevention model is minimized, the corresponding network topology adjustment dispatching instruction and power output dispatching instruction are used as the first decision variable and fed back to the middle attack model; the middle attack model uses the shutdown line state corresponding to the maximum load loss as the second decision variable, and the first decision variable and the second decision variable are fed back to the upper prevention model together; the corresponding mobile emergency power dispatching instruction when the objective function of the upper prevention model is minimized, and the corresponding network topology adjustment dispatching instruction and power output dispatching instruction when the objective function of the lower prevention model is minimized, are used as active prevention plans before power grid disasters.

[0177] In the embodiment, Figure 2 In the solution process of the active prevention decision model shown in FIG, the middle-level attack model provides the fault scenario to the lower-level prevention model; in the lower-level prevention model, under the constraints of static safety constraints and networking constraints, the goal of minimizing the cost of adjusting the operating mode under the fault scenario is achieved, so as to obtain the power output adjustment and line disconnection status as decision variables, which are fed back to the middle-level attack model; in the middle-level attack model, under the constraints of the line operation status, the goal of maximizing the amount of load loss is achieved, so as to obtain the line fault status, take the line fault status as the most serious fault scenario, take the power output adjustment and line disconnection status as corresponding defense measures, and feed them back to the upper-level prevention model together; the upper-level prevention model achieves the goal of minimizing the scheduling cost of the mobile emergency power supply under the constraints of mobile emergency power supply access and transportation path, so as to obtain the mobile emergency power supply access location and timing; in order to obtain a better active prevention plan before the power grid disaster, the mobile emergency power supply access location and timing are fed back to the middle-level attack model to update the fault scenario, and the updated fault scenario is fed back to the lower-level prevention model, and the lower-level prevention model is used to obtain the optimal power output adjustment and line disconnection status.

[0178] The present invention establishes a three-layer decision-making model of active prevention-attack-prevention, with minimizing the prevention cost and overall load loss as the overall optimization goal, considering the most dangerous disaster scenarios, coordinating the short-term and medium-term mobile emergency power supply deployment before the disaster, and the network topology and power output adjustment in the near term and other preventive measures. The prevention cost takes into account the resource occupation cost, and the topology adjustment takes into account the networking constraints of multiple types of power supplies, so that various types of prevention resources can be effectively utilized.

[0179] The objective function of the active prevention decision model satisfies the following relationship:

[0180] ;

[0181] In the formula, is the decision variable of the upper prevention model, and in the embodiment is the mobile emergency power dispatch instruction, A set of dispatch instructions for mobile emergency power supply; is the decision variable of the middle-level attack model, and in the embodiment, it is a power outage scenario. For power outages caused by natural disasters, and are decision variables of the lower prevention model, and in the embodiment, they are combined scheduling of network topology adjustment and power output, is the objective function of the upper prevention model, is the objective function of the lower prevention model.

[0182] The present invention first analyzes the decision window of proactive preventive measures before disasters, and determines the time length of the preventive measures decision window according to the accuracy of disaster prediction and the effectiveness of preventive measures; then analyzes the operating conditions of power network islands, including master-slave topology constraints, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints and inertia constraints; further establishes a three-layer proactive prevention decision model of prevention-attack-prevention, in which the upper model considers the power network conditions to decide the access location and access time of the mobile emergency power supply, the middle model determines the extreme disaster attack scenario with the maximum load loss based on the natural disaster scenario set, and the lower model optimizes the network topology and power output with the minimum system load loss based on the mobile emergency power access plan and the extreme disaster attack scenario, and the constraints include partition networking constraints, power balance constraints, branch flow constraints, node voltage constraints and branch transmission capacity constraints.

[0183] The present invention also proposes a proactive disaster prevention system for urban power grids with a high proportion of new energy, comprising:

[0184] The decision preparation module is used to set the length of the decision window of the proactive prevention plan before the power grid disaster; proactive prevention measures before the power grid disaster are set within the decision window, including the combined dispatch of mobile emergency power supply, network topology adjustment and power output;

[0185] The constraint condition construction module is used to obtain the control mode of each power supply in the power grid; based on the master-slave control mode, the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode is used as the master power supply, and the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode is used as the slave power supply to form a multi-power supply network island; the multi-power supply network island is used to construct a multi-island power grid model; the topology constraint conditions, short-circuit capacity ratio constraint conditions and inertia constraint conditions of the multi-island power grid model are established;

[0186] The decision model module is used to establish an active prevention decision model based on a three-layer model structure, including: an upper-layer prevention model with the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch as the objective function, a middle-layer attack model consisting of power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, and a lower-layer prevention model with the sum of load loss and power abandonment loss under the combined dispatch of network topology adjustment and power output as the objective function; wherein, the constraint conditions of the objective function of the lower-layer prevention model include: topology constraint conditions of the multi-island power grid model, short-circuit capacity ratio constraint conditions and inertia constraint conditions;

[0187] The active prevention decision-making module is used to take the network topology adjustment scheduling instructions and power output scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model as the first decision variable, and feed them back to the middle-level attack model; the middle-level attack model takes the shutdown line state corresponding to the maximum load loss as the second decision variable, and the first decision variable and the second decision variable are fed back to the upper-level prevention model together; the mobile emergency power supply scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the upper-level prevention model, and the network topology adjustment scheduling instructions and power output scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model, are used as active prevention plans before power grid disasters.

[0188] The present disclosure may be a system, a method and / or a computer program product. The computer program product may include a computer-readable storage medium carrying computer-readable program instructions for causing a processor to implement various aspects of the present disclosure.

[0189] A computer-readable storage medium may be a tangible device that can hold and store instructions used by an instruction execution device. A computer-readable storage medium may be, for example, but not limited to, an electrical storage device, a magnetic storage device, an optical storage device, an electromagnetic storage device, a semiconductor storage device, or any suitable combination of the above. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of computer-readable storage media include: a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), a static random access memory (SRAM), a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), a digital versatile disk (DVD), a memory stick, a floppy disk, a mechanical encoding device, such as a punch card or a raised structure in a groove on which instructions are stored, and any suitable combination of the above. The computer-readable storage medium used herein is not to be interpreted as a transient signal itself, such as a radio wave or other freely propagating electromagnetic wave, an electromagnetic wave propagating through a waveguide or other transmission medium (e.g., a light pulse through a fiber optic cable), or an electrical signal transmitted through a wire.

[0190] The computer-readable program instructions described herein can be downloaded from a computer-readable storage medium to each computing / processing device, or downloaded to an external computer or external storage device via a network, such as the Internet, a local area network, a wide area network, and / or a wireless network. The network can include copper transmission cables, optical fiber transmissions, wireless transmissions, routers, firewalls, switches, gateway computers, and / or edge servers. The network adapter card or network interface in each computing / processing device receives the computer-readable program instructions from the network and forwards the computer-readable program instructions for storage in the computer-readable storage medium in each computing / processing device.

[0191] The computer program instructions for performing the operations of the present disclosure may be assembly instructions, instruction set architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions, machine-dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions, state setting data, or source code or object code written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including object-oriented programming languages, such as Smalltalk, C++, etc., and conventional procedural programming languages, such as "C" language or similar programming languages. The computer-readable program instructions may be executed entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as a separate software package, partially on the user's computer, partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In the case of a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or may be connected to an external computer (e.g., using an Internet service provider to connect through the Internet). In some embodiments, by using the state information of the computer-readable program instructions to personalize an electronic circuit, such as a programmable logic circuit, a field programmable gate array (FPGA), or a programmable logic array (PLA), the electronic circuit may execute the computer-readable program instructions, thereby implementing various aspects of the present disclosure.

[0192] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents, and any modifications or equivalent replacements that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy, characterized in that: include: Set the length of the decision window for the proactive prevention plan before a power grid disaster; set proactive prevention measures before a power grid disaster within the decision window, including combined dispatching of mobile emergency power supply, network topology adjustment and power output; Obtain the control mode of each power source in the power grid; based on the master-slave control method, use the power source in the voltage and frequency control mode as the master power source, and use the power source in the non-voltage and frequency control mode as the slave power source to form a multi-power network island; construct a multi-island power grid model using the multi-power network island; establish the topology constraints, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints and inertia constraints of the multi-island power grid model; Based on the three-layer model structure, an active prevention decision model is established, including: an upper-layer prevention model with the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch as the objective function, a middle-layer attack model consisting of power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, and a lower-layer prevention model with the sum of load loss and power abandonment loss under the combined dispatch of network topology adjustment and power output as the objective function; among which, the constraints of the objective function of the lower-layer prevention model include: topology constraints of the multi-island power grid model, short-circuit capacity ratio constraints, and inertia constraints; Among them, the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch is the total transportation cost of implementing the mobile emergency power dispatch plan before the disaster, which satisfies the following relationship: ； In the formula, is the objective function of the upper prevention model, For mobile emergency power supply collection, A collection of candidate connection points for mobile emergency power supply for the power system; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The unit distance transportation cost is affected by the mobile emergency power supply. Transport to candidate connection point The impact of traffic sections and their congestion; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points Occupancy costs; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The transport path distance, is the initial time of dispatching the mobile emergency power supply, The arrival time of the mobile emergency power supply at the candidate connection point; The network topology adjustment dispatching instructions and power output dispatching instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model are used as the first decision variable and fed back to the middle-level attack model; the middle-level attack model uses the shutdown line state corresponding to the maximum load loss as the second decision variable, and the first decision variable and the second decision variable are fed back to the upper-level prevention model together; the mobile emergency power dispatching instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the upper-level prevention model and the network topology adjustment dispatching instructions and power output dispatching instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model are used as active prevention plans before power grid disasters.

2. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 1, characterized in that: The length of the proactive prevention decision-making window before a power grid disaster is 12 hours.

3. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 1, characterized in that: Obtain the control mode of each power supply in the power grid; based on the master-slave control mode, take the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode as the master power supply, and take the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode as the slave power supply to form a multi-power network island, and use the multi-power network island to construct a multi-island power grid model, including: Obtain the control mode of each power source in the multi-island power grid, including voltage and frequency control modes; Based on the master-slave control mode, the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode is used as the master power supply, and the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode is used as the slave power supply to form a multi-power network island, satisfying the following relationship: In the formula, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode , ,……, They are respectively power supply 1, ..., power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode , Networking multiple power sources to form an island The total number of power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes; Construct the node set of the networking path corresponding to the multi-power network island, which satisfies the following relationship: In the formula, Networking multiple power sources to form an island The set of nodes that the corresponding networking path passes through, To access the power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Nodes, ,……, Connect to the power supply in non-voltage and frequency control modes respectively ,……, Nodes, ,……, The power supply in voltage and frequency control mode respectively Power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode ,……, Nodes without power access along the networking path; The multi-island power grid model is constructed by using multiple power supply network islands to satisfy the following relationship: In the formula, To utilize the power grid model constructed by multi-power network island, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, , It is the total number of islands in multi-power network, and also the total number of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode.

4. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 3 is characterized in that: Topological constraints of the multi-island power grid model include: 1) The power constraints in voltage and frequency control mode satisfy the following relationship: In the formula, For power supplies that are not in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply Power supply in voltage and frequency control mode m , It is a collection of power supplies in voltage and frequency control modes; 2) The power constraints in non-voltage and frequency control mode satisfy the following relationship: In the formula, It is a power supply in voltage and frequency control mode. Multi-power network island with main power supply Power supply in non-voltage and frequency control mode , For multi-power network island The corresponding network path passes through the node set of the access power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode Nodes, Networking multiple power sources The set of nodes that the corresponding networking path passes through; 3) The internal constraints of the multi-island power grid model satisfy the following relationship: In the formula, For power supply in voltage and frequency control mode Multi-power network island with main power supply, , It is the total number of islands in the multi-power network, and also the total number of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode. is an empty set, is a collection of power supplies in voltage and frequency control mode, A collection of power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes.

5. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 4, characterized in that: The short-circuit capacity ratio constraint of the multi-island power grid model satisfies the following relationship: In the formula, is the lower limit of the short-circuit capacity ratio, Nodes in multi-island power grid The total installed capacity of the power sources connected in non-voltage and frequency control mode, Removing nodes from multi-island power grids All power supplies except those in non-voltage and frequency control mode are connected to the node The total short-circuit capacity provided, Nodes in multi-island power grid The power supply connected to the node in non-voltage and frequency control mode The total short-circuit capacity provided; Among them, in multi-island power grid, except for nodes All power supplies except those in non-voltage and frequency control mode are connected to the node The total short-circuit capacity provided satisfies the following relationship: In the formula, , They are respectively the nodes in the multi-island power grid except The amplitude and impedance of all power sources other than those connected in non-voltage and frequency control modes; In addition, in multi-island power grids, The impedance of all power supplies other than the power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes meets the following relationship: In the formula, is the set of all nodes connected to the power supply in the multi-island power grid, For nodes connected to power supply in multi-island power grid, For Node The power supply connected to the node The transfer impedance of In addition to nodes in multi-island power grid The amplitudes of all power supplies other than the power supplies in non-voltage and frequency control modes satisfy the following relationship: In the formula, Nodes in multi-island power grid The amplitude of the power supply connected at node The power supply connected to the node The transfer impedance satisfies the following relationship: In the formula, For Node The self-impedance For Node To Node The mutual impedance of For Node The impedance of the power supply connected at ; Nodes in multi-island power grid The power supply connected to the node in non-voltage and frequency control mode The total short-circuit capacity provided satisfies the following relationship: In the formula, , They are nodes in multi-island power grids. The magnitude and impedance of the power supply connected in non-voltage and frequency control mode.

6. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 5, characterized in that: The inertia constraint condition of the multi-island power grid model satisfies the following relationship: In the formula, is the load recovery amount of a single time step in a multi-island power grid; is the equivalent inertia time constant of the multi-island power grid; , are the upper and lower limits of the frequency change rate, respectively. is the total number of power sources in the multi-island grid; , Power supply for power supply island Rated capacity and inertia time constant.

7. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 1, characterized in that: The constraints of the objective function of the upper prevention model include: 1) The number of mobile emergency power supplies that the candidate connection point is allowed to connect to must satisfy the following relationship: In the formula, For the period Candidate connection points The number of mobile emergency power supplies connected, Represents a candidate connection point The upper limit of the number of mobile emergency power supplies allowed to be connected; 2) A mobile emergency power supply can only select one candidate connection point to access the constraint, satisfying the following relationship: In the formula, For mobile emergency power supply Access candidate connection points The state variables, Indicates mobile emergency power supply Access candidate connection points , Indicates mobile emergency power supply No candidate connection point is connected .

8. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 1, characterized in that: The power outage scenario under natural disasters satisfies the following relationship: ； ； In the formula, For power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, To characterize the period Whether natural disasters have a negative impact on the line The 0-1 discrete uncertainty variable that causes the impact, Indicates line The company was shut down due to natural disasters. Indicates line The company continued to operate normally without being affected by natural disasters. is the maximum impact of natural disasters on the power system, Indicates line Belongs to the collection of lines affected by natural disasters , Indicates line Belongs to the collection of lines not affected by natural disasters .

9. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 1, characterized in that: The objective function of the lower-level prevention model satisfies the following relationship: In the formula, is the objective function of the lower prevention model, is the set of power system nodes, For Node Load in period The unit load loss, For Node Power on during the period The unit power loss is For the period node The amount of load loss, For the period node of wasted electricity, is the initial time of dispatching the mobile emergency power supply, It is the end time of the combined scheduling of network topology adjustment and power output.

10. The method for proactively preventing power grid disasters in cities with a high proportion of renewable energy according to claim 1, characterized in that: The constraints of the objective function of the lower prevention model also include: power flow constraints, node voltage constraints, branch transmission capacity constraints, and power balance constraints.

11. A proactive disaster prevention system for urban power grids with a high proportion of new energy, characterized in that: include: A decision preparation module is used to set the length of the decision window for proactive prevention plans before power grid disasters; Set up proactive preventive measures before power grid disasters within the decision-making window, including mobile emergency power dispatch, network topology adjustment and combined dispatch of power output; The constraint condition construction module is used to obtain the control mode of each power supply in the power grid; based on the master-slave control mode, the power supply in the voltage and frequency control mode is used as the master power supply, and the power supply in the non-voltage and frequency control mode is used as the slave power supply to form a multi-power supply network island; the multi-power supply network island is used to construct a multi-island power grid model; the topology constraint conditions, short-circuit capacity ratio constraint conditions and inertia constraint conditions of the multi-island power grid model are established; The decision model module is used to establish an active prevention decision model based on a three-layer model structure, including: an upper-layer prevention model with the cost of mobile emergency power dispatch as the objective function, a middle-layer attack model consisting of power outage scenarios caused by natural disasters, and a lower-layer prevention model with the sum of load loss and power abandonment loss under the combined dispatch of network topology adjustment and power output as the objective function; wherein, the constraint conditions of the objective function of the lower-layer prevention model include: topology constraint conditions of the multi-island power grid model, short-circuit capacity ratio constraint conditions and inertia constraint conditions; The cost of mobile emergency power dispatch is the total transportation cost of implementing the mobile emergency power dispatch plan before the disaster, which satisfies the following relationship: ； In the formula, is the objective function of the upper prevention model, For mobile emergency power supply collection, A collection of candidate connection points for mobile emergency power supply for the power system; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The unit distance transportation cost is affected by the mobile emergency power supply. Transport to candidate connection point The impact of traffic sections and their congestion; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points Occupancy costs; For mobile emergency power supply In the period Access candidate connection points The transport path distance, is the initial time of dispatching the mobile emergency power supply, The arrival time of the mobile emergency power supply at the candidate connection point; The active prevention decision-making module is used to take the network topology adjustment scheduling instructions and power output scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model as the first decision variable, and feed them back to the middle-level attack model; the middle-level attack model takes the shutdown line state corresponding to the maximum load loss as the second decision variable, and the first decision variable and the second decision variable are fed back to the upper-level prevention model together; the mobile emergency power supply scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the upper-level prevention model, and the network topology adjustment scheduling instructions and power output scheduling instructions corresponding to the minimum objective function of the lower-level prevention model, are used as active prevention plans before power grid disasters.

12. A terminal comprising a processor and a storage medium; characterized in that: The storage medium is used to store instructions; The processor is configured to operate according to the instructions to execute the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 10.

13. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 10 are implemented.

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