Method and apparatus for tracking and future risk estimation of heat wave life processes in interland migration

Abstract

The present application relates to the field of carbon neutralization, and discloses a method and equipment for tracking and future risk estimation of interland-sea migration heat wave life process, the method comprising: data downloading; identifying marine source type landing heat wave and land source type entering sea heat wave event; quantifying the spatial and temporal attribute characteristics of marine source type landing heat wave and land source type entering sea heat wave; detecting the influence of different human activities on marine source type landing heat wave and land source type entering sea heat wave; weather scale and interdecadal scale physical mechanism of marine source type landing heat wave and land source type entering sea heat wave migration and landing or entering sea; estimating the risk of marine source type landing heat wave and land source type entering sea heat wave under future high emission scenario; the present application analyzes the response situation under human-induced climate change, clarifies the physical mechanism of landing and entering sea, helps to deepen the understanding of the life cycle process of the two types of interland-sea migration heat wave, and provides a scientific basis for coping with the natural challenges brought by the two types of interland-sea migration heat wave under climate change.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the field of carbon neutrality, and in particular to a method and device for tracking the life process of inter-ocean-land migrating heat waves and predicting future risks. BACKGROUND

[0002] Heat wave is one of the most serious meteorological disasters in the world, causing incalculable casualties and socio-economic losses every year. With human activities further exacerbating global warming, the threat posed by heat waves is increasing day by day. A large number of studies have shown that heat waves will become more frequent, persistent, widespread and severe under global warming from the static perspective of grid and station scales. In recent years, three-dimensional spatiotemporal tracking methods have also proven that human society will face increasing heat wave threats from a dynamic perspective. However, the academic community has only studied marine heat waves and land heat waves as isolated individuals, leading researchers to seriously overlook the overall nature of heat waves. As one of the factors driving heat wave migration, the heat advection between the ocean and the land plays a crucial role in heat wave migration. For example, the 2021 North American heat wave originated in the northwest Pacific and gradually developed into the North American continent under the action of heat advection. However, the impact of climate change caused by human activities on marine heat waves and land heat waves has not been paid attention to by the academic community, and the physical mechanisms of the two types of inter-ocean-land migrating heat waves remain to be analyzed. SUMMARY

[0003] The present application aims to provide a method and device for tracking the life process of inter-ocean-land migrating heat waves and predicting future risks, solving the technical problem that the physical mechanisms of marine heat waves and land heat waves have not been adequately studied in the prior art.

[0004] The present application provides a method for tracking the life process of inter-ocean-land migrating heat waves and predicting future risks, comprising the following steps:

[0005] Step S1: data download;

[0006] Step S2: identify marine heat waves and land heat waves; based on the data downloaded in step S1, use the dynamic climate threshold method to determine the threshold of daily average temperature in the warm season, select the grid points with daily average temperature exceeding the ninth percentile, and use the Lagrangian three-dimensional spatiotemporal tracking method to obtain the three-dimensional spatiotemporal cubic structure of heat waves, and divide it into marine heat waves, land heat waves, marine heat waves and land heat waves three-dimensional spatiotemporal cubic structure according to the heat wave generation area and migration process;

[0007] Step S3: quantifying the spatial and temporal properties of the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave; according to the spatial and temporal cubes of the marine heat wave, the land heat wave, the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave obtained in step S2, the spatial and temporal properties of the heat wave event are calculated, and the direction of the heat wave migration in the planning regional area is unified;

[0008] Step S4: detecting the influence of different human activities on the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave; according to the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of marine-land migration heat wave events obtained in step S3, the relative changes of the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of marine-land migration heat wave events under the three different external forcing scenarios of human forcing, greenhouse gas forcing and human aerosol forcing compared with the average value in the historical period are calculated, and the influence of different types of human activities on the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of marine-land migration heat wave events is analyzed.

[0009] Step S5: weather scale and interdecadal scale physical mechanism of marine-origin landing heat wave and land-origin entering sea heat wave migration and landing or entering sea; according to the two types of marine-land migration heat wave events obtained in step S3, the circulation field in the heat wave period is constructed according to the meteorological element factor, the moving and landing or entering sea weather scale evolution process and physical mechanism of the two types of marine-land migration heat wave are analyzed; the interdecadal scale changes of the meteorological element factor and the earth system physical factor driving the movement of the two types of marine-land migration heat wave are analyzed to clarify the interdecadal physical mechanism driving the movement of the heat wave.

[0010] Step S6: estimating the risk of marine-origin landing heat wave and land-origin entering sea heat wave under the high emission scenario in the future; combining the three-dimensional spatial and temporal properties of the two types of marine-land migration heat wave obtained in step S3, the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of marine-land migration heat wave events are estimated in the future, the signal-to-noise ratio of the two types of marine-land migration heat wave event characteristics in the future period under the high emission scenario is explored, and the risk of marine-origin landing heat wave and land-origin entering sea heat wave is estimated on a global scale.

[0011] A storage medium stores instructions and data for implementing a marine-land migration heat wave life process tracking and future risk estimation method.

[0012] A marine-land migration heat wave life process tracking and future risk estimation device comprises a processor and the storage medium; the processor loads and executes the instructions and data in the storage medium to implement a marine-land migration heat wave life process tracking and future risk estimation method.

[0013] The beneficial effects provided by the present application are:

[0014] (1) The application initiatively proposes a method for identifying marine source type landing heat waves and land source type entering sea heat waves, and reveals the migration process of the heat waves between the sea and the land. The application identifies two types of heat wave events migrating between the sea and the land, and clearly shows the changes and influences of the two types of heat waves in the spatial and temporal dimensions, thereby providing a scientific basis for coping with the natural challenges brought by the two types of heat waves.

[0015] (2) The application quantifies the spatial and temporal attribute characteristics of marine source type landing heat waves and land source type entering sea heat waves under different human forcings, and evaluates the influences of different human forcings on the two types of heat wave events, thereby providing a brand-new theoretical support for the government and international cooperation organizations to make decisions and suggestions for adapting to and mitigating climate change on the two types of heat waves.

[0016] (3) The application analyzes the atmospheric circulation conditions for the landing or entering sea of the marine source type landing heat waves and the land source type entering sea heat waves, and clarifies the migration paths of the two types of heat wave events in the historical period, thereby providing an initiatory theoretical support for predicting the two types of heat waves. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0017] Figure 1 is a method flowchart of the application;

[0018] Figure 2 is a threshold sensitivity experiment of the overlapping area of the heat waves between the sea and the land and the time variation trend of the temperature threshold;

[0019] Figure 3 is a typical case of marine source type landing heat waves;

[0020] Figure 4 is a typical case of land source type entering sea heat waves;

[0021] Figure 5 is the historical spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the four types of heat waves;

[0022] Figure 6 is a process diagram of the generation, migration, landing or entering sea of the two types of heat waves between the sea and the land;

[0023] Figure 7 is a relative change of the frequency of the two types of heat waves between the sea and the land under different historical forcings;

[0024] Figure 8 is a physical mechanism diagram of the two types of heat waves between the sea and the land;

[0025] Figure 9 is a relative change of the frequency of the two types of heat waves between the sea and the land under a high emission scenario in the future compared with the historical period;

[0026] Figure 10 is an influence of different human forcings on the risk ratio of the frequency of the two types of heat waves between the sea and the land under a high emission scenario in the future;

[0027] Figure 11 is a schematic diagram of the working of the hardware device of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0028] In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application clearer, the embodiments of the present application will be further described below with reference to the drawings.

[0029] Before formally describing the present application, a general description of the scheme of the present application is first given for the convenience of understanding.

[0030] Reference is made to Figure 1 , Figure 1 is a schematic diagram of the method of the present application.

[0031] The present application provides a method for tracking the life process of heat wave migration between sea and land and predicting future risks, comprising the following steps:

[0032] Step S1: data downloading;

[0033] As a preferred embodiment, in the present application, the 2m air temperature, 10m, 850hpa and 500hpa meridional and zonal wind speed, 850hpa air pressure and 500hpa geopotential height data of the sixth international coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6), the general earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LENS) and the fifth generation reanalysis dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) are collected; the 2m air temperature data under natural forcing, greenhouse gas forcing and anthropogenic aerosol forcing of the detection of attribution model intercomparison project (DAMIP) in CMIP6 and the 2m air temperature data under greenhouse gas forcing and anthropogenic aerosol forcing of the general earth system model single forcing large ensemble (CESM1-Single Forcing) are collected; and the mask files of global land regions and boundaries are collected.

[0034] Step S2: identifying marine-derived landing heat wave and land-derived entering sea heat wave events; according to the data downloaded in step S1, the daily average air temperature is subjected to threshold discrimination based on the dynamic climate threshold method, the grid points with daily average air temperature exceeding the ninetieth percentile are selected as high temperature grid points, the three-dimensional spatiotemporal cubic structure of heat wave is obtained using the Lagrangian three-dimensional spatiotemporal tracking method, and the three-dimensional spatiotemporal cubic structure is divided into marine heat wave, land heat wave, marine-derived landing heat wave and land-derived entering sea heat wave three-dimensional spatiotemporal cubic structures according to the heat wave generation region and migration process;

[0035] It should be noted that the warm season specifically refers to the warm season in the northern hemisphere: May-September, and the warm season in the southern hemisphere: November-March of the next year.

[0036] Step S2 is specifically as follows:

[0037] S21: Based on the 2m air temperature data of the multi-mode data of the historical period mode test, the natural forcing test, the greenhouse gas forcing experiment, the artificial aerosol forcing experiment and the shared socio-economic path high emission scenario simulation test, the dynamic climate threshold method with a 30-year window period is used to quantify the warm season heat wave temperature threshold of each year;

[0038] S22: The Lagrangian three-dimensional spatiotemporal tracking method is used to identify global heat wave events in the spatiotemporal scale, and the specific steps are as follows: if the grid temperature is greater than the temperature threshold obtained in step S21, the grid is defined as a high temperature grid; adjacent high temperature grids in the same time dimension are merged into spatially continuous high temperature patches in the two-dimensional space layer; if the high temperature patch has an overlapping area greater than a preset area in a continuous time step, and the continuous time step is at least greater than a preset number of days, then the high temperature patch is merged into a three-dimensional heat wave event; the life cycle of the three-dimensional heat wave event is at least greater than the preset number of days, and the minimum area of each day is greater than the preset area;

[0039] As an embodiment, in step S2, the 2m air temperature data of each mode of the historical period mode test, the natural forcing test, the greenhouse gas forcing experiment, the artificial aerosol forcing experiment and the shared socio-economic path simulation test high emission scenario are used, the dynamic climate threshold method is used to determine the threshold of the daily average temperature in the warm season, the grid points with daily average temperature exceeding the ninetieth percentile are defined as high temperature grid points, and the Lagrangian three-dimensional spatiotemporal tracking method is used to obtain a heat wave three-dimensional spatiotemporal cube; if the grid temperature is greater than the temperature threshold obtained in step S21, the grid is defined as a high temperature grid; adjacent high temperature grids in the same time dimension are merged into continuous high temperature patches in the two-dimensional space layer; if the high temperature patch has an overlapping area greater than 100000km 2 in a continuous time step, and the continuous time step is at least greater than 3 days, then the high temperature patch is merged into a three-dimensional heat wave event; the three-dimensional heat wave event lasts at least 3 days, and the minimum area of each day is greater than 100000km 2 .

[0040] S23: The mask file data of the global land area and boundary in step S1 is used to set the minimum landing area of the marine source landing heat wave and the minimum sea area threshold of the land source landing heat wave, and the three-dimensional heat wave events originating from the ocean or land and then moving to the land or ocean are identified as marine source landing heat waves or land source landing heat waves.

[0041] As an embodiment, according to the mask file of the global land area and boundary in step S1, the minimum landing and sea area are set, and the three-dimensional heat wave events originating from the ocean or land and having a landing or sea area exceeding the area threshold are identified as marine source landing heat waves or land source landing heat waves. In the present application, the minimum landing area and the minimum overlapping area are both set to 100000km 2 .

[0042] Step S3: Quantify the spatial and temporal properties of the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave; according to the spatial and temporal cubes of the marine heat wave, the land heat wave, the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave obtained in step S2, the spatial and temporal properties of the heat wave event are calculated, and the direction of the heat wave migration in the planning regional area is unified;

[0043] Step S3 is specifically:

[0044] The time, space and property characteristics of the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave are frequency and life cycle, area, intensity; the frequency is the number of occurrences of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave events per year; the life cycle is the duration of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave events; the area is the influence area of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave; the intensity is the sum of the product of the part of the grid temperature exceeding the threshold value and the grid area in the heat wave occurrence period.

[0045] Step S4: Detect the influence of different human activities on the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave; according to the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave events obtained in step S3, the relative changes of the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave events under the three different external forcing scenarios of anthropogenic forcing, greenhouse gas forcing and anthropogenic aerosol forcing compared with the average value in the historical period are calculated, and the influence of different types of human activities on the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave is analyzed;

[0046] Step S4 is specifically as follows:

[0047] Detecting the influence of different human activities on the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave, according to the three types of characteristics of the time, space and properties of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave events under the three different external forcing scenarios of anthropogenic forcing, greenhouse gas forcing and anthropogenic aerosol forcing calculated in the specific steps of step S3, compared with the average value in the historical period, the relative changes are obtained, and the influence of human activities on the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave is analyzed and evaluated.

[0048] As an embodiment, the influence of different human activities on the marine-origin landing heat wave and the land-origin entering sea heat wave is detected; according to the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave events obtained in step S3, the changes compared with the average value in the historical period under different external forcing scenarios, i.e. the relative changes of the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave (I) compared with the historical period under the influence of anthropogenic forcing, greenhouse gas forcing and anthropogenic aerosol forcing, are calculated, so as to evaluate the influence of these human activities on the spatial and temporal properties of the two types of inter-sea and land migration heat wave, which is specifically as follows:

[0049] Step S5: Physical mechanism of the migration and landing or entering of the marine-source landing heat wave and the land-source entering heat wave, and the weather scale and interdecadal scale; according to the two types of heat wave migration events between the sea and land obtained in step S3, the circulation field during the heat wave period is constructed according to the meteorological element factors, and the moving and landing or entering of the two types of heat wave migration events are analyzed, and the weather scale evolution process and physical mechanism are analyzed; the interdecadal scale change of the meteorological element factors and the earth system physical factors driving the migration of the two types of heat wave migration events are analyzed to clarify the interdecadal physical mechanism driving the migration of the heat wave;

[0050] Step S5 is as follows:

[0051] S51: According to the initial data set, the atmospheric circulation field during the heat wave period is established to analyze the weather scale physical mechanism during the migration, landing or entering of the two types of heat wave migration events between the sea and land, wherein the atmospheric circulation field focuses on the distribution of the high pressure system at 850hpa and 500hpa pressure layer during the migration of the heat wave and the wind field matched with the high pressure system; according to the initial data set, the interdecadal scale change of the meteorological element factors and the earth system physical factors driving the migration of the two types of heat wave migration events are analyzed to clarify the interdecadal physical mechanism driving the migration of the heat wave, wherein the marine-source landing heat wave focuses on the driving of the zonal wind field to make the heat wave land, and the land-source entering heat wave focuses on the driving of the difference between the sea and land thermal properties to make the heat wave enter the sea.

[0052] As an embodiment, the initial data set downloaded according to step S1 is used to establish an atmospheric circulation field during a heat wave to analyze the weather scale physical mechanism during the migration, landing or entering of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves, wherein the atmospheric circulation field mainly focuses on the distribution of the high pressure system at the 850hpa and 500hpa pressure layers during the migration of the heat wave and the wind field matched with the high pressure system. Taking China as an example, the heat wave events landing in China during 1981-2020 are selected, and the atmospheric circulation situation two days before and after landing and on the landing day are taken as references to analyze the position of the westward extension of the northwest Pacific subtropical high ridge line at the 500hpa layer and the changes and movements of the high pressure system above China at the 850hpa layer of the China sea source type landing heat wave; taking Australia as an example, the atmospheric circulation situation two days before and after entering and on the entering day are taken as references to analyze the distribution and movement of the potential height anomaly center at the 500hpa layer and the changes and movements of the high pressure system above the land source type entering heat wave; according to the initial data set, the meteorological element factors and the interdecadal scale changes of the earth system physical factors driving the migration of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves are analyzed to determine the interdecadal physical mechanism driving the migration of the heat waves, and the historical period is divided into two periods before (1981-2000) and after (2001-2020), and the zonal wind of the sea source type landing heat wave in the two periods is subtracted to explore the driving effect of the zonal wind on the sea source type landing heat wave; the changes of the temperature threshold of the land source type entering heat wave in the two periods are subtracted at the same latitude to focus on the effect of the difference in the thermal properties of the sea and land within the same latitude on the heat transfer from the high temperature on land to the sea to cause the heat wave to enter the sea.

[0053] Step S6: predicting the risk of the sea source type landing heat wave and the land source type entering heat wave under a future high emission scenario; combining the three-dimensional spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves obtained in step S3, the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat wave events are predicted in the future, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the characteristics of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat wave events in the future high emission scenario is explored, and the risk of the sea source type landing heat wave and the land source type entering heat wave is predicted on a global scale.

[0054] Step S6 is specifically as follows:

[0055] According to the three-dimensional spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves, the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat wave events are predicted in the future, and the relative changes, risk ratios and signal-to-noise ratios of the characteristics of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat wave events in the future high emission scenario are explored to evaluate the risk of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves on a global scale.

[0056] As one example, the risks of marine-sourced landfalling heat waves and land-sourced ocean-entering heat waves under future high-emission scenarios are estimated. Combining the three-dimensional spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves obtained in step S3, the event attribute characteristics of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves are predicted for the future. Based on the signal-to-noise ratio, the response of land-sea migration heat waves to human activities under global warming is assessed. The risk ratio of the event characteristics of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves under future high-emission scenarios is explored to conduct risk assessment of marine-sourced landfalling heat waves and land-sourced ocean-entering heat waves on a global scale.

[0057] The signal-to-noise ratio is calculated to assess the response of human activities to land-sea migrating heat waves under global warming, as shown in the following formula:

[0058]

[0059] Among them, the signal represents the spatiotemporal characteristics of two types of land-sea migrating heat waves in the future period (2061-2100) compared to the historical period (1981-2020). The relative change is represented by the average of 8 models from CMIP6 and 40 ensembles from CESM-LENS. Noise is defined as the standard deviation σ(ΔI) among model or ensemble members of the relative changes in the spatiotemporal properties of the two types of land-sea migrating heat waves. If the absolute value of SNR is greater than 1, it indicates that anthropogenic climate change signals have been detected in CMIP6 or CESM-LENS; conversely, if the absolute value of SNR is less than 1, no anthropogenic climate change signals have been detected.

[0060] In step S6 above, based on the spatiotemporal attributes of two types of land-sea migratory heat wave events in CMIP6 and CESM-LENS—frequency, lifespan, area, and intensity—the future risk ratio of the characteristics of these two types of land-sea migratory heat wave events under future high-emission scenarios is quantified. The risk ratio is the change in the spatiotemporal attributes of the two types of land-sea migratory heat waves under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios in future high-emission scenarios compared to historical periods. This ratio is used to predict the severity of the two types of land-sea migratory heat waves under future high-emission scenarios, as shown in the following formula:

[0061] To better explain the method of the present invention, as an implementation example, the present invention takes the global heat wave from 1981 to 2020 as an example for more detailed description. The implementation example is applicable to cases that analyze the present invention, but does not limit the scope of application of the present invention. It is still applicable to specific regions and other periods.

[0062] The implementation flowchart of the method for tracking the life processes of land-sea migrating heat waves and predicting future risks in this invention is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, the specific steps are as follows:

[0063] (1) Collect experimental data;

[0064] In this implementation, the 2m air temperature, 10m, 850hpa and 500hpa meridional and zonal wind speed, 850hpa air pressure and 500hpa geopotential height data of the sixth international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS) and the fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) are collected; the 2m air temperature data of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) under natural forcing, greenhouse gas forcing and anthropogenic aerosol forcing in CMIP6 and the 2m air temperature data of the Community Earth System Model Single Forcing Large Ensemble (CESM1-Single Forcing) under greenhouse gas forcing and anthropogenic aerosol forcing are collected; the mask file of global land area and boundary is collected; the time range of the above data is 1951-2100. Based on the Climate Data Operators (CDO), the meteorological data is bilinearly interpolated to unify the spatial resolution among multiple models and large ensembles, and the new data spatial resolution is 1.5°x1.5°, and the ERA5 reanalysis data is daily averaged in the time dimension to unify the time resolution.

[0065] (2) Identify marine source type landing heat wave and land source type into sea heat wave events;

[0066] In this case, the global region is taken as an example, the 2m air temperature data of the historical period model test, the natural forcing test, the greenhouse gas forcing test, the anthropogenic aerosol forcing test and the shared socio-economic path simulation test high emission scenario of each model are used, the daily average air temperature is threshold discriminated based on the dynamic climate threshold method, the grid points with daily average air temperature exceeding the ninetieth percentile are marked as high temperature grid points, and the Lagrangian three-dimensional spatiotemporal tracking method is used to obtain a three-dimensional spatiotemporal cube of heat wave; adjacent high temperature grid points in the same time dimension are merged into continuous high temperature patches in the two-dimensional space layer; if the overlapping area of the high temperature patch in the continuous time step is greater than 100000km 2 , and the continuous time step is at least greater than 3 days, then it is merged into a three-dimensional heat wave event; the heat wave event lasts at least 3 days, and the minimum area of each day is greater than 100000km 2 .

[0067] According to the mask file of global land area and boundary, the minimum landing and into sea area is set, and the heat wave events originating from the ocean or land, landing or into sea area exceeding the area threshold are identified as marine source type landing heat wave or land source type into sea heat wave events. In this implementation, the minimum landing area and the minimum overlapping area are both set to 100000km 2 . The minimum overlapping area is obtained through sensitivity analysis, as shown in Figure 2 .

[0068] For specific typical cases, please refer toFigure 3 、 Figure 4 where Figure 3 is the case of heatwave originating from the Northwest Pacific in July 2003 gradually migrating and finally landing in China, while Figure 4 is the case of heatwave originating from the desert region of Western Australia in 2018 migrating and finally entering the sea in the South Pacific.

[0069] (3) Quantify the spatiotemporal properties of marine-derived landing heatwaves and land-derived sea-entering heatwaves;

[0070] This case quantifies the spatiotemporal properties of the three-dimensional events of the two types of transoceanic heatwaves from the historical climate simulation experiments, greenhouse gas experiments, natural forcing experiments, anthropogenic aerosol experiments, and high-emission scenario simulations of the two types of transoceanic heatwaves from the 8 CMIP6 models, 40 CESM-LENS, and 20 CESM1-Single Forcing experiments. The time, space, and properties of the two types of transoceanic heatwave events are frequency, life cycle, area, and intensity. Frequency refers to the number of occurrences of the two types of transoceanic heatwaves per year. Life cycle refers to the duration of the two types of transoceanic heatwave events. Area refers to the area affected by the two types of transoceanic heatwaves. Intensity refers to the sum of the product of the part of the grid temperature exceeding the threshold and the grid area during the heatwave occurrence period. As shown in Figure 5 , between 1981 and 2020, marine-derived landing heatwaves and land-derived sea-entering heatwaves occurred globally 2133 and 1354 times, respectively, with longer life cycles (12.38 days, +237.9%; 11.84 days, +245.8%), larger areas (12.51×10 6 km 2 , +1015.2%; 8.16×10 6 km 2 , +359.3%), and more severe intensity (35.64×10 6 K·km 2 ·days, +1275.7%; 36.54×10 6 K·km 2 ·days, +2005.9%) compared to land heatwaves and ocean heatwaves. For example, in terms of frequency, refer to Figure 5 、 Figure 6, the zonal average of the marine-origin landing heatwave is bimodal, with high-value areas mainly distributed in the tropical and southern oceans. Most of them originate from the eastern Pacific and migrate eastward, while those originating from the western Pacific mostly migrate westward. Compared with the land heatwaves, which mostly occur in central Europe, marine-origin landing heatwaves are more frequent in the tropical regions of South America and South Africa. Most of the land-origin sea heatwaves originate from central Europe, North Africa, South Africa, central South America, and Western Australia. In the subtropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, land-origin sea heatwaves mostly migrate eastward, while in other regions, there is no obvious migration direction. Compared with the frequent marine heatwaves in the tropical and southern oceans, land-origin sea heatwaves mostly enter the sea in the tropical and mid-high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

[0071] (4) Detect the impact of different human activities on marine-origin landing heatwaves and land-origin sea heatwaves;

[0072] This case is based on the spatial grid index of the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of intercontinental heatwaves. Under the action of three different external forces, the relative change of the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of intercontinental heatwaves relative to the average value of the historical period in the specified period, that is, the change of the two types of intercontinental heatwaves relative to the history under the action of human forcing, greenhouse gas forcing, and human aerosol forcing. The formula has been stated above, and will not be repeated here.

[0073] Further, the relative change of the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of intercontinental heatwaves under the future high-emission scenario and the historical period is calculated, and the signal-to-noise ratio is calculated based on the relative change to detect the impact of human activities on the two types of intercontinental heatwaves. The formula has been stated above, and will not be repeated here.

[0074] For example, as shown in Figure 7 Compared with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble average of the historical period (1981-2020), the frequency of marine-origin landing heatwaves under human forcing showed an increasing trend in about 82.2% of the global area, with an average increase of +30.9% in the global land area, while the frequency of land-origin sea heatwaves showed an increasing trend in 81.1% of the global area, with an average change of about +24.0% in the global ocean area. Such a large area of increasing frequency is caused by the continuous greenhouse gas forcing in recent decades. Under the influence of greenhouse gas forcing, both types of intercontinental heatwaves show a more intense increasing trend, with the frequency of land-origin landing heatwaves in the land area increasing by about +39.3%, and the frequency of land-origin sea heatwaves increasing by +33.7%. In other words, human aerosol forcing offsets part of the effect of greenhouse gas forcing, which is also evident in the spatial frequency distribution of the two types of intercontinental heatwaves.

[0075] (5) Analyze the landing and sea- entering physical mechanisms of marine-origin landing heatwaves and land-origin sea heatwaves;

[0076] Based on the aforementioned atmospheric environmental variable data, atmospheric circulation fields were constructed during ocean-sourced landfall heat waves and land-sourced ocean-entering heat waves. The atmospheric circulation conditions for the landfall and entry into the sea of ​​these two types of land-sea migrating heat waves at the synoptic scale were analyzed. The meteorological factors and geosystem physical factors driving the landfall and entry into the sea of ​​these two types of land-sea migrating heat waves at the decadal scale were explored. At the synoptic scale, since heat waves are closely related to high-pressure systems, the atmospheric circulation physical model uses 850 hPa pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height as the main indicators for quantifying high-pressure systems, and wind fields at the same pressure layer are used as auxiliary references.

[0077] Taking China as an example, this study primarily identifies the 5880 geopotential meter contour line to analyze the impact of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high-pressure ridge on ocean-sourced landfall heat waves. For example... Figure 8 As shown, two days before the heatwave from the Northwest Pacific migrated to East Asia, the 500 hPa geopotential height field indicated that the ridge of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high-pressure system extended westward to the coastal areas of China. This ridge guided warm, moist air currents from the high-temperature region of the Pacific towards East Asia, driving the heatwave to the coastal areas of East Asia. A high-pressure center at 850 hPa stretched across China. The descending airflow in the high-pressure system's controlled area directly caused adiabatic warming, indirectly reducing cloud cover and thus radiative warming, creating favorable conditions for the heatwave to make landfall. On the day the heatwave made landfall, the upper levels remained under the control of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high-pressure system. A high-pressure center at 5900 hPa had formed over the Kuroshio region, and the 850 hPa high-pressure system further intensified. Over the next two days, the high-pressure center continued to move westward, and the circulation pattern of the high-pressure system intensified, resulting in most parts of China being hit by the high-temperature heatwave.

[0078] Taking Australia as an example, this study primarily identifies the impact of the movement of a high-pressure system in the 850 hPa pressure layer on land-borne heat waves. Figure 8 As shown, the Rossby Wave, originating in the Indian Ocean, propagated eastward and triggered a high-pressure system over Australia. Two days before the Australian heatwave reached the sea, the continental region was primarily influenced by the 850 hPa high-pressure system and the subtropical high, while a 500 hPa pressure dipole evolved in the southern region. In the following days, the lower-level high-pressure system and the anomalous high-pressure center strengthened and gradually moved eastward over the ocean, causing the Australian heatwave to move eastward along with the high-pressure system and guiding land-based heat advection towards the ocean, thus propagating the heatwave into the maritime region. Australian land-based heatwaves often move eastward with the high-pressure system. The upstream region is the Australian desert; under the influence of land-atmosphere feedback, low humidity amplifies the intensity of the downstream heatwave, further promoting its transport to the relatively cooler ocean region, ultimately leading to the heatwave reaching the sea.

[0079] From an interdecadal perspective, wind, as a medium for heat transfer, primarily influences the transport of heat advection in mid- and low-latitude regions, thus contributing to the formation or migration of heat waves. Compared to the previous 20 years (1981-2000), in the last 20 years (2001-2020), the zonal winds in tropical regions have shown a more consistent migration direction with ocean-sourced landfalling heat waves, such as... Figure 8 As shown, easterly anomalies in the South China Sea and eastern Australia will be more conducive to the westward transmission of heat waves to the mainland. Conversely, westerly anomalies in West Africa, western South America, western Australia, and India are more likely to transmit heat waves eastward to adjacent continental waters. Unlike ocean-sourced heat waves, the difference in thermal properties between land and sea (such as the temperature difference between land and sea) makes it easier for hot air masses to be transported from land to sea, thus promoting the entry of heat waves into the ocean. Under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, a stronger difference in thermal properties between land and sea will amplify the temperature difference between land and sea, meaning that land will warm up faster than the ocean. This will further facilitate the transfer of heat from land to the ocean, such as... Figure 8 As shown, the differences in land and sea temperature rise are extremely significant in South Australia, Central South America, Central Africa, and Western Europe, which means that land-based heat waves entering the sea will be more frequent in this region.

[0080] In summary, the ocean-source heat wave that makes landfall in China is caused by the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, the westward extension of the subtropical high-pressure ridge, and the rapid warming of the ocean in the Northwest Pacific. Under the influence of abnormal zonal easterly winds, heat is transported to the continent through advection. As the subtropical high-pressure ridge continues to extend westward and the low-level high-pressure system in China further strengthens, the descending airflow reduces cloud cover in the high-pressure system's controlled area, leading to adiabatic and radiative warming in the region. As a result, the heat wave makes landfall in China due to the combined effects of thermal advection, adiabatic warming, and radiative warming.

[0081] Originating in the Indian Ocean, the Rossby Wave gradually moved eastward over Australia, forming a high-pressure center. Under the control of this high-pressure system, adiabatic and radiative warming in the region led to heat waves. As the high-pressure system continued its eastward movement, the low humidity in the upstream deserts enhanced thermal advection, further amplifying the heat wave intensity downstream. The temperature difference between land and sea resulted in land warming far exceeding that of the ocean, facilitating thermal advection towards the ocean. When the high-pressure system gradually moved eastward over the ocean, the combined effects of thermal advection, radiative warming, and adiabatic warming caused land-based heat waves to migrate into the sea.

[0082] (6) Estimating the risks of marine-source landfalling heat waves and land-source ocean-entering heat waves under future high-emission scenarios;

[0083] To prevent the extreme evolution of marine-sourced landfall heat waves and land-sourced ocean-bound heat waves under climate change, this invention estimates the risks of these two types of land-sea migration heat waves under future high-emission scenarios. This inspires people to take targeted protective measures in the face of global warming and calls on global meteorological organizations to develop appropriate policies to address the severe challenges we will face.

[0084] For example, as shown in Figure 9 , the frequency of the two types of heatwaves migrating between land and sea under the future high-emission scenario is estimated based on the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble data and the CESM-LENS large sample ensemble data. The results show that the sea-source landing heatwaves are increasing in about 95.3% of the global land area (+157.8%), that is, more ocean heatwaves will migrate to the land area in the future, and the increase trend in the tropical region is the most significant. Correspondingly, the land-source entering sea heatwaves are also significantly increasing in about 96.3% of the global ocean area (+193.5%), and the trend in the tropical region is the most significant, which indicates that the two types of heatwaves migrating between land and sea will become more frequent. The signal-to-noise ratio results show that the two types of heatwaves migrating between land and sea detect human activity signals in 87.2% of the global land area and 69.1% of the ocean area, respectively. Referring to Figure 10 , although the heatwave temperature threshold continues to rise, the frequency of the two types of heatwaves migrating between land and sea is always increasing, and under the future single climate forcing simulation of CESM-XLENS, greenhouse gases promote the occurrence of sea-source landing heatwaves (+183.4%) and land-source entering sea heatwaves (+250.1%) more frequently. Spatial results show that under the action of greenhouse gas forcing, the risk of sea-source landing heatwaves is greater in the tropical and mid-high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, while the risk of land-source entering sea heatwaves is the greatest in the tropical and Southern Hemisphere oceans. Overall, under the future high-emission climate scenario, sea-source landing heatwaves and land-source entering sea heatwaves will become more frequent (+157.8%, +193.5%), more persistent (+188.3%, +226.2%), more extensive (+487.4%, +479.6%), and more severe (+487.2%, +544.6%).

[0085] See Figure 11 , Figure 11 is a hardware device working schematic diagram of an embodiment of the present application, and specifically comprises: a heatwave life process tracking and future risk estimation device 401, a processor 402, and a storage medium 403.

[0086] The heatwave life process tracking and future risk estimation device 401: the heatwave life process tracking and future risk estimation device 401 realizes the heatwave life process tracking and future risk estimation method.

[0087] The processor 402: the processor 402 loads and executes the instructions and data in the storage medium 403 to realize the heatwave life process tracking and future risk estimation method.

[0088] The storage medium 403 stores instructions and data; the storage medium 403 is used to realize the inter-ocean-land migration heat wave life process tracking and future risk prediction method.

[0089] The beneficial effects of the present application are:

[0090] (1) The present application initiatively proposes a method for identifying marine source type landing heat waves and land source type entering sea heat waves, and reveals the migration process of inter-ocean-land heat waves. The present application identifies two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat wave events, and clearly shows the spatial and temporal changes and influences of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves, which provides a scientific basis for coping with the natural challenges brought by the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves.

[0091] (2) The present application quantifies the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of marine source type landing heat waves and land source type entering sea heat waves under different human forcings, and evaluates the influence of different human forcings on the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat wave events, which provides a new theoretical support for the government and international cooperation organizations to make decisions and suggestions for adapting and mitigating climate change on the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves.

[0092] (3) The present application analyzes the atmospheric circulation conditions of marine source type landing heat waves and land source type entering sea heat waves, and clarifies the migration paths of the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat wave events in the historical period, which provides a pioneering theoretical support for predicting the two types of inter-ocean-land migration heat waves.

[0093] The above only describes the preferred embodiments of the present application, and is not intended to limit the present application. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present application shall be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for tracking and future risk estimation of marine heat wave life processes in inter-coastal migration, characterized in that: The method includes the following steps: Step S1: Data download; Step S2: Identify marine-sourced landfalling heat waves and terrestrial-sourced sea-entering heat wave events; Based on the data downloaded in Step S1, threshold discrimination is performed on the daily average temperature during the warm season using the dynamic climate threshold method. Grid points with daily average temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile are defined as high-temperature grid points. The three-dimensional spatiotemporal cube structure of the heat wave is obtained using the Lagrange three-dimensional spatiotemporal tracking method, and it is divided into three-dimensional spatiotemporal cubes of marine heat waves, terrestrial heat waves, marine-sourced landfalling heat waves, and terrestrial-sourced sea-entering heat waves according to the heat wave generation region and migration process. Step S3: Quantify the spatiotemporal characteristics of marine-sourced landfalling heat waves and terrestrial-sourced ocean-entering heat waves; Based on the spatiotemporal cubes of marine heat waves, land heat waves, ocean-sourced landfall heat waves, and land-sourced ocean-entering heat waves obtained in step S2, calculate the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of heat wave events and statistically analyze the direction of heat wave migration within the divided regions. Step S4: Detect the impact of different human activities on marine-sourced landfall heat waves and land-sourced ocean-bound heat waves; based on the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of land-sea migration heat wave events obtained in Step S3, calculate the relative changes of the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves under three different external forcing scenarios: anthropogenic forcing, greenhouse gas forcing, and anthropogenic aerosol forcing, compared with the historical average, and analyze the impact of different types of human activities on the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves; Step S5: Physical mechanisms of the migration and landfall / ocean entry of marine-sourced land-based heat waves and land-based heat waves entering the sea at synoptic and decadal scales; Based on the two types of land-sea migrating heat wave events obtained in Step S3, construct the circulation field during the heat wave period based on meteorological factors, and analyze the synoptic-scale evolution process and physical mechanisms of the movement and landfall / ocean entry of the two types of land-sea migrating heat waves; analyze the decadal scale changes of meteorological factors and Earth system physical factors driving the movement of the two types of land-sea migrating heat waves to clarify the decadal physical mechanisms driving the movement of heat waves. Step S6: Estimate the risks of marine-source landfalling heat waves and land-source entering-the-sea heat waves under future high-emission scenarios; combine the three-dimensional spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of inter-oceanic migration heat waves obtained in Step S3, make future predictions on the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of inter-oceanic migration heat wave events, explore the signal-to-noise ratio of the characteristics of the two types of inter-oceanic migration heat wave events under future high-emission scenarios, and make risk predictions on marine-source landfalling heat waves and land-source entering-the-sea heat waves on a global scale.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by: Step S2 is as follows: S21: Based on 2m temperature data from multiple models including historical model experiments, natural forcing experiments, greenhouse gas forcing experiments, anthropogenic aerosol forcing experiments, and high emission scenario simulation experiments with shared socio-economic pathways, the dynamic climate threshold method with a 30-year window period is used to quantify the annual warm season heat wave temperature threshold. S22: The Lagrange three-dimensional spatiotemporal tracking method identifies global heat wave events on a spatiotemporal scale, as follows: If the grid point temperature is greater than the temperature threshold obtained in step S21, then this grid point is defined as a high-temperature grid point; adjacent high-temperature grid points in the same time dimension are merged into a spatially continuous high-temperature patch in two-dimensional space; if the overlapping area of ​​the high-temperature patches is greater than a preset area in a continuous time step, and this continuous time step is at least greater than a preset number of days, then they are merged into a three-dimensional heat wave event; the life cycle of the three-dimensional heat wave event is at least greater than a preset number of days, and the minimum area per day must be greater than a preset area; S23: Using the mask file data of global land areas and boundaries from step S1, set the minimum landfall area threshold for marine-originating landfall heat waves and the minimum sea-entry area threshold for land-originating sea-entry heat waves, respectively identifying three-dimensional heat wave events originating from the ocean or land and subsequently moving to the land or ocean as marine-originating landfall heat waves or land-originating sea-entry heat wave events.

3. A method of tracking and future risk assessment of heat wave life processes in intercoastal migration as claimed in claim 2, wherein: Step S3 is as follows: The temporal, spatial, and attribute characteristics of marine-sourced landfalling heat waves and land-sourced ocean-bound heat waves are frequency, lifespan, area, and intensity, respectively; frequency is the number of times each type of land-sea migration heat wave occurs annually; lifespan is the duration of each type of land-sea migration heat wave. The area represents the area affected by the two types of land-sea migrating heat waves; the intensity is the sum of the product of the portion of the grid point temperature exceeding the threshold and the grid point area during the heat wave occurrence period.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the method is characterized by: Step S4 is as follows: The study examines the impact of different human activities on marine-sourced land-based heat waves and land-sourced ocean-bound heat waves. Based on the temporal, spatial, and attribute characteristics of the two types of land-sea migrating heat wave events under three different external forcing scenarios (anthropogenic forcing, greenhouse gas forcing, and anthropogenic aerosol forcing) calculated under the specific steps of step S3, the relative changes are obtained by comparing them with historical averages. This allows for the analysis and evaluation of the impact of human activities on the spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of land-sea migrating heat waves.

5. The method for tracking the life processes of land-sea migrating heat waves and predicting future risks as described in claim 4, characterized in that: Step S5 is as follows: S51: Based on the initial dataset, an atmospheric circulation field was established during the heat wave to analyze the synoptic-scale physical mechanisms of two types of land-sea migrating heat wave events during migration, landfall, or sea entry. The atmospheric circulation field focuses on the distribution of the 850 hPa and 500 hPa high-pressure systems and the wind field matching the high-pressure systems during the heat wave migration. Based on the initial dataset, the interdecadal scale variations of meteorological factors and Earth system physical factors driving the movement of the two types of land-sea migrating heat waves were analyzed to clarify the interdecadal physical mechanisms driving the movement of heat waves. Among them, the landfall heat wave driven by the zonal wind field is the driving force that enables the heat wave to land, while the land-sea heat wave driven by the difference in thermal properties between land and sea drives the high temperature on land to transfer heat to the ocean, resulting in the heat wave entering the sea.

6. The method for tracking the life processes of land-sea migrating heat waves and predicting future risks as described in claim 5, characterized in that: Step S6 is as follows: Based on the three-dimensional spatiotemporal attribute characteristics of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves, future predictions of the event attributes of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves are made. The relative changes, risk ratios and signal-to-noise ratios of the event characteristics of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves under high emission scenarios in the future are explored so as to conduct risk assessment of the two types of land-sea migration heat waves on a global scale.

7. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium stores instructions and data to implement the method for tracking the life process of land-sea migrating heat waves and predicting future risks as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

8. A device for tracking the life cycle of land-sea migrating heat waves and predicting future risks, characterized in that: include: A processor and a storage medium; the processor loads and executes instructions and data in the storage medium to implement the method for tracking the life processes of land-sea migrating heat waves and predicting future risks as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

Images