Park integrated energy system planning and evolution analysis method based on carbon transaction mechanism

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of integrated energy system planning, and particularly discloses a park integrated energy system planning and evolution analysis method based on a carbon transaction mechanism, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, building a park integrated energy system model; s2, establishing an energy conversion equipment model; s3, establishing an energy storage equipment model; s4, establishing a stepped carbon transaction mechanism model; and S5, based on PIES low-carbon planning and evolution analysis calculation of Monte Carlo random sampling, obtaining an optimal path with minimum cost and carbon emission. The method has the advantages that analysis is carried out on the basis of massive sampling and generation of massive evolution paths, the optimal path with the minimum cost and carbon emission is obtained, and scientific and reasonable technical reference is provided for energy system planning of the park.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of integrated energy system planning, and in particular to a park integrated energy system planning and evolution analysis method based on a carbon trading mechanism. Background Art

[0002] Park-level integrated energy system (PIES) has the characteristics of high energy consumption and high energy density, and has the potential to integrate and utilize various types of renewable energy. The low-carbon development of PIES can be achieved by participating in carbon trading and developing renewable clean energy. PIES' participation in carbon trading means that carbon emission rights are bought and sold as freely traded commodities in the carbon trading market, and the carbon emissions of PIES are controlled by market means, and profits are made from them. The large-scale development of renewable clean energy also gives PIES a good profit space when participating in carbon trading. The planning and development of the existing park integrated energy system faces the difficulties of the uncertainty of the investment costs of wind power, photovoltaic and other equipment, as well as how to reasonably allocate carbon trading resources in the market and reduce operating costs. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art and provide a method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism.

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solution: A park comprehensive energy system planning and evolution analysis method based on a carbon trading mechanism, comprising the following steps:

[0005] S1. Establish a comprehensive energy system model for the park;

[0006] S2. Establishing an energy conversion equipment model;

[0007] S3, establishing an energy storage device model;

[0008] S4. Establish a tiered carbon trading mechanism model;

[0009] S5. Based on the Monte Carlo random sampling PIES low-carbon planning and evolutionary analysis calculation, the optimal path with the lowest cost and carbon emissions is obtained.

[0010] Specifically, the energy conversion device model in step S2 includes the following models:

[0011] GB (Gas-fired Boiler) equipment model:

[0012]

[0013] Where P g,GB(t) is the gas power input to GB during period t; η GB is the energy conversion efficiency of GB; is the upper limit of the power input to GB;

[0014] CHP (Combine Heat and Power) cogeneration equipment model:

[0015]

[0016] Where P g,CHP (t) is the natural gas power input to CHP during period t; η e,CHP , η h,CHP are the energy conversion efficiencies of CHP into electrical energy and thermal energy, respectively; is the upper limit of the power input to CHP; and They are the upper and lower limits of the thermal-to-electricity ratio of CHP, respectively;

[0017] ER (Electrical Chiller) equipment model:

[0018]

[0019] Where P c,ER (t) is the cooling power output by ER at time t; η ER P is the conversion efficiency of the electric refrigerator; e,ER (t) is the electrical power input to ER at time t; is the upper limit of the electric power input to ER;

[0020] AC (Absorption Chiller) equipment model:

[0021]

[0022] Where P c,AC (t) is the cooling power output of AC at time t; η AC is the conversion efficiency of the absorption refrigeration machine; P h,AC (t) is the thermal power input to AC at time t; It is the upper limit of the thermal power of the input AC.

[0023] Specifically, the energy storage device model is:

[0024]

[0025] Where i∈Ω,Ω={ES,HS,GS} is the set of electricity storage, heat storage and gas storage; P i cha (t), Pi dis (t) are the charging and discharging powers of the i-th energy storage device in time period t; and are the maximum power of a single charge and discharge of the i-th energy storage device; are the state parameters of the charging and discharging of the i-th energy storage device in period t, which are binary variables. are the charging and discharging efficiencies of the energy storage device, respectively; and are the upper and lower limits of the capacity of the i-th energy storage device respectively.

[0026] Specifically, the actual carbon emissions calculation formula of the park's comprehensive energy system is as follows:

[0027] E PIES,n =E e,buy,n +E GB,n +E CHP,n (6)

[0028]

[0029]

[0030]

[0031] In the formula, E PIES,n 、E e,buy,n 、E GB,n 、E CHP,n are the actual carbon emissions of the park's comprehensive energy system, purchased electricity, gas boilers, and cogeneration units in the nth year; P e,buy,n P is the power purchased by the park comprehensive energy system from the upper power grid during period t in year n; h,GB,n (t) is the heating power of the gas boiler in the t period of the nth year; P h,CHP,n (t), P e,CHP,n (t) are the heating and power supply power of the CHP unit in the t period of year n; μ e and μ h are the carbon emission intensity per unit of electricity and per unit of heat respectively; is the conversion factor of the CHP unit's power generation to heat generation; the carbon trading cost is calculated on a yearly basis, and T is 8760;

[0032] The carbon quota calculation formula for the park's comprehensive energy system is as follows:

[0033] E' PIES,n =E e ' ,buy,n +E' GB,n +E' CHP,n (10)

[0034] Where, E' PIES,n 、E e ' ,buy,n , E' GB,n , E' CHP,n They are the carbon emission quotas for the park’s integrated energy system, purchased electricity, gas boilers, and cogeneration units;

[0035] The carbon emissions of the integrated energy system of the park after considering the carbon quota are E 0,n The calculation method is as follows:

[0036] E 0,n =E PIES,n -E' PIES ,n (11)

[0037] In the formula, E PIES,n is the actual carbon emissions of the park's comprehensive energy system in year n, E' PIES,n Carbon emission quota for the park’s integrated energy system.

[0038] Specifically, the ladder-type carbon trading mechanism model is:

[0039]

[0040] In the formula, is the carbon trading cost; E 0,n is the traded carbon emissions of the park’s comprehensive energy system after considering carbon quotas, λ is the benchmark price, l is the length of the carbon emission interval, and α is the increase in the carbon trading price.

[0041] Specifically, the objective function of the PIES low-carbon planning and evolution analysis calculation based on Monte Carlo random sampling is:

[0042]

[0043] In the formula, C represents the present value of the park's life cycle cost; τ is the discount rate; n represents the nth year of the planning period; N is the planning period; C inv,n is the construction investment cost in the nth year; C ope,n , C main,n are the operation and maintenance costs of the park's comprehensive energy system in the nth year, is the carbon trading cost of the park’s comprehensive energy system in the nth year.

[0044] Specifically, the calculation formula for the investment and construction cost of the park's comprehensive energy system is:

[0045] C inv,n =∑ j∈φ f j e j Wj,n (14)

[0046] Among them, e j is the unit price of equipment j, RMB / kW; W j,n is the configured capacity of device j in the nth year, kW; φ is the device set including wind power, photovoltaic equipment, CHP, AC, ER, GB, ER and various energy storage equipment; f j It is a Boolean variable with a value of 1 or 0;

[0047] The calculation formula for the operation cost of the park's comprehensive energy system is:

[0048]

[0049]

[0050]

[0051] Among them, C buy,n (t) is the energy purchase cost of the park in the nth year; a t , b t Represent the electricity price and gas price at time t in year n respectively; C w,cut,n (t) is the wind curtailment cost of the park's integrated energy system in the nth year; c t is the penalty cost for unit wind curtailment; C ope,n It is the operating cost of the park’s comprehensive energy system in the nth year, including the park’s energy purchase cost and wind abandonment cost in the nth year. The energy purchase cost includes the cost of purchasing electricity and gas.

[0052] Specifically, the maintenance cost of the park's comprehensive energy system is:

[0053]

[0054] in, is the maintenance cost vector per unit power of each type of equipment to be planned; is a vector composed of the output power of various types of equipment in the nth year and tth period, is the output power of the j-type device in the nth year and the tth period; if the j-type device represents an energy storage device, It represents the sum of the charging and discharging power of the energy storage device.

[0055] Specifically, the park comprehensive energy system model also includes the following constraints:

[0056] Renewable energy output constraints:

[0057] Where P w,t , P pv,t They represent the power output of wind power and photovoltaic power in period t respectively; Respectively represent the upper limits of wind power and photovoltaic output power, Indicates the upper limit of wind power and photovoltaic capacity;

[0058] Electric power balance constraints:

[0059]

[0060] Where P e,load,n (t) represents the electric load power in period t of year n; and They represent the discharge and charge power of the storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P w,n (t) represents the wind power in period t of year n; P pv,n (t) represents the solar power generation power in the t period of year n; P e,buy,n (t) represents the externally purchased electric power in period t of year n; P e,CHP,n (t) is the power generated by natural gas; P e,ER,n (t) represents the electric power consumed by electric refrigeration during period t in year n; It represents the maximum electric power limit that can be purchased in the t period of year n;

[0061] Thermal power balance constraints:

[0062]

[0063] Where P h,load,n (t) represents the heat load power in period t of year n; and They represent the heat release and charging power of the heat storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P h,CHP,n (t) represents the thermal power of natural gas heat generation in period t of year n, P h,GB,n (t) represents the heat output of the boiler in the period t in the nth year, P h,AC,n (t) represents the thermal power consumed by absorption refrigeration during period t in year n;

[0064] The gas power balance constraint is:

[0065]

[0066] Where P g,load,n (t) represents the gas load power in period t of year n; and They represent the deflation and inflation power of the gas storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P g,buy,n (t) represents the natural gas purchased in period t in year n; P g,GB,n (t) represents the natural gas consumed by the boiler equipment during period t in year n;

[0067] The cooling power balance constraint can be expressed as:

[0068] P c,ER,n (t)+P c,AC,n (t) = P c,load,n (t) (23)

[0069] Where P c,load,n (t) represents the cooling load power in period t of year n, P c,ER,n (t) represents the cooling power output of the ER equipment in period t in year n; P c,AC,n (t) represents the cooling power output of the AC equipment in period t in year n;

[0070] Energy storage equipment constraints:

[0071] S i (t0) = S i (t T ) (twenty four)

[0072] In the formula, S i (t) is the capacity of the i-th energy storage device in time period t;

[0073] Carbon emission limit constraints:

[0074] E 0,x ≥E 0,n (25)

[0075] In the formula, x means that the carbon emission limit is achieved in the xth year of the plan.

[0076] Specifically, after carbon emissions reach their peak, in order to ensure that carbon emissions fall back in an orderly and steady manner, it is set that every year after the carbon emission limit, the traded carbon emissions must decrease year by year at a fixed rate of v%:

[0077] E 0,y+1 ≤(1-v%)·E 0,y ,y≥x (26)

[0078] In the formula, y represents the year after the carbon emission limit;

[0079] Taking into account the system's full life cycle cost, actual carbon emissions and carbon trading costs, a weighted solution is obtained. The calculation model is shown in the following formula:

[0080]

[0081] Where, δ represents the low-carbon cost optimization benefit; ω represents the weight coefficient.

[0082] The present invention has the following advantages:

[0083] The present invention provides a low-carbon planning method for the integrated energy system of a park based on the P2G two-stage technology and taking into account the carbon trading costs. The Monte Carlo method is used for random sampling in the high-level uncertainty space composed of numerous uncertain factors. Analysis is performed on the basis of a large number of samplings and the generation of massive evolutionary paths to obtain the optimal path with the lowest cost and carbon emissions, providing a scientific and reasonable technical reference for the energy system planning of the park. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0084] Figure 1 A flow chart of the park integrated energy system planning and evolution analysis method of the carbon trading mechanism of the present invention;

[0085] Figure 2 The park comprehensive energy system diagram of the present invention;

[0086] Figure 3 It is a working principle diagram of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0087] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention, that is, the embodiments described are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all of the embodiments. The components of the embodiments of the present invention described and shown in the drawings herein can be arranged and designed in various different configurations.

[0088] Therefore, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention provided in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of the invention claimed for protection, but merely represents selected embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without making creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0089] It should be noted that relational terms such as "first" and "second" are used only to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "including a..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0090] The present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited to the following description. Figures 1 to 3 As shown in the figure, the park comprehensive energy system planning and evolution analysis method based on the carbon trading mechanism includes the following steps:

[0091] S1. Establish a park integrated energy system model (PIES); the park integrated energy system model in this embodiment is as follows Figure 1 , including cogeneration, electric refrigeration machines, gas boilers, photovoltaic and fan equipment, and purchasing natural gas and electricity from outside the system, using energy conversion equipment in conjunction with electricity storage, heat storage and gas storage to meet users' electricity, heat, cold and gas load needs.

[0092] S2. Establish an energy conversion equipment model. In the process of energy conversion, equipment such as combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP), electric refrigerators (ER) and gas boilers (GB) improve the overall energy utilization efficiency through efficient energy conversion and utilization. In particular, the CCHP system further optimizes the energy utilization effect through the coordinated work of gas turbines, waste heat boilers and absorption refrigerators (AC). At the load end, it can respond to various energy demands, demonstrating its strong energy supply flexibility and reliability.

[0093] Energy conversion models are of two types: electricity to heat and gas to heat. Energy conversion equipment models include the following models: GB equipment model:

[0094]

[0095] Where P g,GB (t) is the gas power input to GB during period t; η GB is the energy conversion efficiency of GB; is the upper limit of the power input to GB;

[0096] Combined Heat and Power Plant Model:

[0097]

[0098] Where P g,CHP (t) is the natural gas power input to CHP during period t; η e,CHP , η h,CHP are the energy conversion efficiencies of CHP into electrical energy and thermal energy, respectively; is the upper limit of the power input to CHP; They are the upper and lower limits of the thermal-to-electricity ratio of CHP, respectively;

[0099] ER Equipment Model:

[0100]

[0101] Where Pc,ER (t) is the cooling power output by ER at time t; η ER P is the conversion efficiency of the electric refrigerator; e,ER (t) is the electrical power input to ER at time t; is the upper limit of the electric power input to ER;

[0102] AC Equipment Model:

[0103]

[0104] Where P c,AC (t) is the cooling power output of AC at time t; η AC is the conversion efficiency of the absorption refrigeration machine; P h,AC (t) is the thermal power input to AC at time t; The upper limit of the thermal power input to AC

[0105] S3, establishing an energy storage device model; in view of the similarity of the models of various energy storages, a unified model is established for them, and the energy storage device model is:

[0106]

[0107] Where i∈Ω,Ω={ES,HS,GS} is the set of electricity storage, heat storage and gas storage; P i cha (t), P i dis (t) are the charging and discharging powers of the i-th energy storage device in time period t; and are the maximum power of a single charge and discharge of the i-th energy storage device; are the state parameters of the charging and discharging of the i-th energy storage device in period t, which are binary variables. are the charging and discharging efficiencies of the energy storage device, respectively; and are the upper and lower limits of the capacity of the i-th energy storage device respectively.

[0108] S4. Establish a tiered carbon trading mechanism model;

[0109] In the calculation model of carbon emissions and carbon quotas of the park's integrated energy system, the carbon emissions in the park's integrated energy system mainly come from three carbon emission sources: purchased electricity, gas turbines, and gas boilers. It is also considered that all the purchased electricity from the upper power grid comes from thermal power units. The actual carbon emissions of the park's integrated energy system are as follows:

[0110] E PIES,n =E e,buy,n +E GB,n +E CHP,n(6)

[0111]

[0112]

[0113]

[0114] In the formula, E PIES,n 、E e,buy,n 、E GB,n 、E CHP,n are the actual carbon emissions of the park's comprehensive energy system, purchased electricity, gas boilers, and cogeneration units in the nth year; P e,buy,n P is the power purchased by the park comprehensive energy system from the upper power grid during period t in year n; h,GB,n (t) is the heating power of the gas boiler in the t period of the nth year; P h,CHP,n (t), P e,CHP,n (t) are the heating and power supply power of the CHP unit in the t period of year n; μ e and μ h are the carbon emission intensity per unit of electricity and per unit of heat respectively; is the conversion factor of the CHP unit's power generation to heat generation; the carbon trading cost is calculated on a yearly basis, so T is 8760;

[0115] The actual carbon emissions calculation formula of the park's comprehensive energy system is as follows:

[0116] The calculation formula for the carbon quota of the park's comprehensive energy system is as follows:

[0117] E' PIES,n =E e ' ,buy,n +E' GB,n +E' CHP,n (10)

[0118] Where, E' PIES,n 、E e ' ,buy,n , E' GB,n , E' CHP,n They are the carbon emission quotas for the park’s integrated energy system, purchased electricity, gas boilers, and cogeneration units;

[0119] The carbon emissions of the integrated energy system of the park after considering the carbon quota E 0,n The calculation method is as follows:

[0120] E 0,n =E PIES,n -E' PIES ,n (11)

[0121] In the formula, E PIES,n is the actual carbon emissions of the park's comprehensive energy system in year n, E' PIES,n Carbon emission quota for the park's integrated energy system;

[0122] The tiered carbon trading mechanism model sets different carbon emission intervals and determines the difference between the actual carbon emissions of the system and the quota value. The value is positive or negative. When the system carbon emissions are lower than the quota, is negative; otherwise, is positive, the step-by-step carbon trading mechanism model is:

[0123]

[0124] In the formula, is the carbon trading cost; E 0,n is the traded carbon emissions of the park’s comprehensive energy system after considering carbon quotas, λ is the benchmark price, l is the length of the carbon emission interval, and α is the increase in the carbon trading price.

[0125] S5. Based on the Monte Carlo random sampling PIES low-carbon planning and evolutionary analysis calculation, the optimal path with the lowest cost and carbon emissions is obtained.

[0126] The objective function of PIES low-carbon planning and evolution analysis calculation based on Monte Carlo random sampling is:

[0127]

[0128] In the formula, C represents the present value of the park's life cycle cost; τ is the discount rate; n represents the nth year of the planning period; N is the planning period; C inv,n is the construction investment cost in the nth year; C ope,n , C main,n are the operation and maintenance costs of the park's comprehensive energy system in the nth year, is the carbon trading cost of the park’s comprehensive energy system in the nth year.

[0129] The calculation formula for the investment and construction cost of the park's comprehensive energy system is:

[0130] C inv,n =∑ j∈φ f j e j W j,n (14)

[0131] Among them, e j is the unit price of equipment j, RMB / kW; W j,n is the configured capacity of device j in the nth year, kW; φ is the device set including wind power, photovoltaic equipment, CHP, AC, ER, GB, ER and various energy storage equipment; fj A Boolean variable with a value of 1 or 0.

[0132] The calculation formula for the operation cost of the park's comprehensive energy system is:

[0133]

[0134]

[0135]

[0136] Among them, C buy,n (t) is the energy purchase cost of the park in the nth year; a t , b t Represent the electricity price and gas price at time t in year n respectively; C w,cut,n (t) is the wind curtailment cost of the park's integrated energy system in the nth year; c t is the penalty cost for unit wind curtailment; C ope,n It is the operating cost of the park’s comprehensive energy system in the nth year, including the park’s energy purchase cost and wind abandonment cost in the nth year. The energy purchase cost includes the cost of purchasing electricity and gas.

[0137] Considering that the maintenance cost of the park's integrated energy system consists of the maintenance costs of wind power, photovoltaics, energy conversion, and various energy storage devices, it is determined by the actual output power of various devices during operation. The vector composed of the output power of various devices in the nth year and tth period is The maintenance cost of the park's integrated energy system is:

[0138]

[0139] in, is the maintenance cost vector per unit power of each type of equipment to be planned; is a vector composed of the output power of various types of equipment in the nth year and tth period, is the output power of the j-type device in the nth year and the tth period; if the j-type device represents an energy storage device, It represents the sum of the charging and discharging power of the energy storage device.

[0140] The renewable energy output constraint can be expressed as:

[0141] Where P w,t , P pv,t They represent the power output of wind power and photovoltaic power in period t respectively; Respectively represent the upper limits of wind power and photovoltaic output power, Indicates the upper limit of wind power and photovoltaic capacity.

[0142] Since wind power and photovoltaic power have great randomness and volatility, in order to reduce the pressure on the main grid, the present invention does not consider the sale of electricity from the park's integrated energy system to the superior power grid.

[0143] The electric power balance constraint can be expressed as:

[0144]

[0145] Where P e,load,n (t) represents the electric load power in period t of year n; and They represent the discharge and charge power of the storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P w,n (t) represents the wind power in period t of year n; P pv,n (t) represents the solar power generation power in the t period of year n; P e,buy,n (t) represents the externally purchased electric power in period t of year n; P e,CHP,n (t) is the power generated by natural gas; P e,ER,n (t) represents the electric power consumed by electric refrigeration during period t in year n; It represents the maximum electric power limit that can be purchased in the t period of year n;

[0146] The thermal power balance constraint can be expressed as:

[0147]

[0148] Where P h,load,n (t) represents the heat load power in period t of year n; and They represent the heat release and charging power of the heat storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P h,CHP,n (t) represents the thermal power of natural gas heat generation in period t of year n, P h,GB,n (t) represents the heat output of the boiler in the period t in the nth year, P h,AC,n (t) represents the thermal power consumed by absorption refrigeration during period t in year n.

[0149] The present invention does not consider the sale of natural gas from the park integrated energy system to the upper gas grid, and the gas power balance constraint can be expressed as:

[0150]

[0151] Where P g,load,n (t) represents the gas load power in period t of year n; and They represent the deflation and inflation power of the gas storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P g,buy,n (t) represents the natural gas purchased in period t in year n; P g,GB,n(t) represents the natural gas consumed by the boiler equipment during period t in year n.

[0152] The cooling power balance constraint can be expressed as:

[0153] P c,ER,n (t)+P c,AC,n (t) = P c,load,n (t) (23)

[0154] Where P c,load,n (t) represents the cooling load power in period t of year n.

[0155] Considering that the energy storage equipment needs to return to the initial state of the dispatch after running one dispatch cycle, the following constraint conditions are further established on the basis of the original constraints:

[0156] S i (t0) = S i (t T ) (twenty four)

[0157] In the formula, S i (t) is the capacity of the i-th energy storage device in period t.

[0158] The carbon emission limit constraint can be expressed as:

[0159] E 0,x ≥E 0,n (25)

[0160] In the formula, x means that the carbon emission limit is achieved in the xth year of the plan.

[0161] After carbon emissions reach the limit, in order to ensure that carbon emissions fall back in an orderly and steady manner, it is set that every year after the carbon emissions limit, the traded carbon emissions must decrease year by year at a fixed rate of v%:

[0162] E 0,y+1 ≤(1-v%)·E 0,y ,y≥x (26)

[0163] Where y represents the year after the carbon emission limit.

[0164] Considering the economic and environmental weighted benefits under different transformation paths, a low-carbon cost optimization index is proposed. That is, the system life cycle cost, actual carbon emissions and carbon trading costs are comprehensively considered for weighted solution. The calculation model is shown in the following formula:

[0165]

[0166] Where, δ represents the low-carbon cost optimization benefit; ω represents the weight coefficient.

[0167] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and does not limit the present invention in any form. Any technician familiar with the art can make many possible changes and modifications to the technical solution of the present invention by using the above-mentioned technical content without departing from the scope of the technical solution of the present invention, or modify it into an equivalent embodiment of equivalent changes. Therefore, any changes, modifications, equivalent changes and modifications made to the above embodiments based on the technology of the present invention without departing from the content of the technical solution of the present invention belong to the protection scope of the present technical solution.

Claims

1. A park integrated energy system planning and evolution analysis method based on the carbon trading mechanism, characterized by: The following steps are involved: S1. Establish a comprehensive energy system model for the park; S2. Establishing an energy conversion equipment model; S3, establishing an energy storage device model; S4. Establish a tiered carbon trading mechanism model; S5. Based on the Monte Carlo random sampling PIES low-carbon planning and evolutionary analysis calculation, the optimal path with the lowest cost and carbon emissions is obtained.

2. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 1 is characterized by: The energy conversion equipment model in step S2 includes the following models: GB (Gas-fired Boiler) equipment model: Where P g,GB (t) is the gas power input to GB during period t; η GB is the energy conversion efficiency of GB; is the upper limit of the power input to GB; CHP (Combine Heat and Power) cogeneration equipment model: Where P g,CHP (t) is the natural gas power input to CHP during period t; η e,CHP , η h,CHP are the energy conversion efficiencies of CHP into electrical energy and thermal energy, respectively; is the upper limit of the power input to CHP; and They are the upper and lower limits of the thermal-to-electricity ratio of CHP, respectively; ER (Electrical Chiller) equipment model: Where P c,ER (t) is the cooling power output by ER at time t; η ER P is the conversion efficiency of the electric refrigerator; e,ER (t) is the electrical power input to ER at time t; is the upper limit of the electric power input to ER; AC (Absorption Chiller) equipment model: Where P c,AC (t) is the cooling power output by AC at time t; η AC P is the conversion efficiency of absorption refrigeration; h,AC (t) is the thermal power input to AC at time t; It is the upper limit of the thermal power of the input AC.

3. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 2 is characterized by: The energy storage device model is: Where i∈Ω,Ω={ES,HS,GS} is the set of electricity storage, heat storage and gas storage; P i cha (t), P i dis (t) are the charging and discharging powers of the i-th energy storage device in time period t; and are the maximum power of a single charge and discharge of the i-th energy storage device; are the state parameters of the charging and discharging of the i-th energy storage device in period t, which are binary variables. are the charging and discharging efficiencies of the energy storage device, respectively; and are the upper and lower limits of the capacity of the i-th energy storage device respectively.

4. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 1 is characterized by: The actual carbon emissions calculation formula of the park's comprehensive energy system is as follows: AND PIES,n =And e,buy,n +E GB,n +E CHP,n (6) In the formula, E PIES,n 、E e,buy,n 、E GB,n 、E CHP,n are the actual carbon emissions of the park's integrated energy system, purchased electricity, gas boilers, and cogeneration units in the nth year; P e,buy,n P is the power purchased by the park's integrated energy system from the upper power grid during period t in year n; h,GB,n (t) is the heating power of the gas boiler in the t period of the nth year; P h,CHP,n (t), P e,CHP,n (t) are the heating and power supply power of the CHP unit in the t period of year n; μ e and μ h are the carbon emission intensity per unit of electricity and per unit of heat respectively; is the conversion coefficient of the CHP unit's power generation to heat generation; the carbon trading cost is calculated on a yearly basis, and T is 8760; The carbon quota calculation formula for the park's comprehensive energy system is as follows: AND' PIES,n =And e ' ,buy,n +It's GB,n +It's CHP,n (10) Where, E' PIES,n 、E e ' ,buy,n , E' GB,n , E' CHP,n They are the carbon emission quotas for the park’s integrated energy system, purchased electricity, gas boilers, and cogeneration units; The carbon emissions of the integrated energy system of the park after considering the carbon quota are E 0,n The calculation method is as follows: AND 0,n =And PIES,n -AND' PIES ,n (11) In the formula, E PIES,n is the actual carbon emissions of the park's comprehensive energy system in year n, E' PIES,n Carbon emission quota for the park’s integrated energy system.

5. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 4 is characterized by: The tiered carbon trading mechanism model is: In the formula, is the carbon trading cost; E 0,n is the traded carbon emissions of the park’s comprehensive energy system after considering carbon quotas, λ is the benchmark price, l is the length of the carbon emission interval, and α is the increase in the carbon trading price.

6. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 5 is characterized by: The objective function of PIES low-carbon planning and evolution analysis calculation based on Monte Carlo random sampling is: In the formula, C represents the present value of the park's life cycle cost; τ is the discount rate; n represents the nth year of the planning period; N is the planning period; C inv,n is the construction investment cost in the nth year; C ope,n , C main,n are the operation and maintenance costs of the park's integrated energy system in the nth year, is the carbon trading cost of the park’s comprehensive energy system in the nth year.

7. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 6 is characterized by: The calculation formula for the investment and construction cost of the park's comprehensive energy system is: C inv,n =∑ j∈φ f j e j W j,n (14) Among them, e j is the unit price of equipment j, RMB / kW; W j,n is the configured capacity of device j in the nth year, kW; φ is the device set including wind power, photovoltaic equipment, CHP, AC, ER, GB, ER and various energy storage equipment; f j It is a Boolean variable, with a value of 1 or 0; The calculation formula for the operation cost of the park's comprehensive energy system is: Where Cbuy,n(t) is the energy purchase cost of the park in the nth year; t 、b t Represent the electricity price and gas price at time t in year n respectively; C w,cut,n (t) is the wind curtailment cost of the park's integrated energy system in the nth year; c t is the penalty cost for unit wind curtailment; C ope,n It is the operating cost of the park’s comprehensive energy system in the nth year, including the park’s energy purchase cost and wind abandonment cost in the nth year. The energy purchase cost includes the cost of purchasing electricity and gas.

8. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 6 is characterized by: The maintenance cost of the park's comprehensive energy system is: in, is the maintenance cost vector per unit power of each type of equipment to be planned; is a vector composed of the output power of various types of equipment in the nth year and tth period, is the output power of the j-type device in the nth year and the tth period; if the j-type device represents an energy storage device, It represents the sum of the charging and discharging power of the energy storage device.

9. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 6 is characterized by: The park integrated energy system model also includes the following constraints: Renewable energy output constraints: Where P w,t , P pv,t They represent the power output of wind power and photovoltaic power in period t respectively; Respectively represent the upper limits of wind power and photovoltaic output power, Indicates the upper limit of wind power and photovoltaic capacity; Electric power balance constraints: Where P e,load,n (t) represents the electric load power in period t of year n; and They represent the discharge and charge power of the storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P w,n (t) represents the wind power in period t of year n; P pv,n (t) represents the solar power generation power in the t period of year n; P e,buy,n (t) represents the externally purchased electric power in period t of year n; P e,CHP,n (t) is the power generated by natural gas; P e,ER,n (t) represents the electric power consumed by electric refrigeration during period t in year n; It represents the maximum electric power limit that can be purchased in the t period of year n; Thermal power balance constraints: Where P h,load,n (t) represents the heat load power in period t of year n; and They represent the heat release and charging power of the heat storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P h,CHP,n (t) represents the thermal power of natural gas heat generation in period t of year n, P h,GB,n (t) represents the heat output of the boiler in the period t in the nth year, P h,AC,n (t) represents the thermal power consumed by absorption refrigeration during period t in year n; The gas power balance constraint is: Where P g,load,n (t) represents the gas load power in period t of year n; and They represent the deflation and inflation power of the gas storage at time t in the nth year respectively; P g,buy,n (t) represents the natural gas purchased in period t in year n; P g,GB,n (t) represents the natural gas consumed by the boiler equipment during period t in year n; The cooling power balance constraint can be expressed as: P c,ER,n (t)+P c,AC,n (t)=P c,load,n (t) (23) Where P c,load,n (t) represents the cooling load power in period t of year n, P c,ER,n (t) represents the cooling power output of the ER equipment in period t in year n; P c,AC,n (t) represents the cooling power output of the AC equipment in period t in year n; Energy storage equipment constraints: S i (t0)=S i (t T ) (24) In the formula, S i (t) is the capacity of the i-th energy storage device in time period t; Carbon emission limit constraints: AND 0,x ≥E 0,n (25) In the formula, x means that the carbon emission limit is achieved in the xth year of the plan.

10. The method for planning and evolving an integrated energy system for a park based on a carbon trading mechanism according to claim 9 is characterized by: After carbon emissions reach the limit, in order to ensure that carbon emissions fall back in an orderly and steady manner, it is set that every year after the carbon emissions limit, the traded carbon emissions must decrease year by year at a fixed rate of v%: E 0,y+1 ≤(1-v%)·E 0,y ,y≥x (26) In the formula, y represents the year after the carbon emission limit; Taking into account the system's full life cycle cost, actual carbon emissions and carbon trading costs, a weighted solution is obtained. The calculation model is shown in the following formula: Where, δ represents the low-carbon cost optimization benefit; ω represents the weight coefficient.

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