Typhoon event set generation method, device and equipment based on climate change

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of typhoon disaster risk assessment, and discloses a climatic change-based typhoon event set generation method, device and equipment and a medium, the method comprises the steps of obtaining a historical tropical cyclone path data set corresponding to a current climatic scene, and generating a first random event set and an alternative random event set based on the historical tropical cyclone path data set; generating a first landing typhoon proportion table according to the sea area level and the landing level corresponding to each landing typhoon event in the first random event set; obtaining a sea area typhoon annual average quantity change table in a future time period under a preset climate scene; based on the first landing typhoon proportion table and the sea area typhoon annual average number change table, the typhoon event increase and decrease number in the first random event set is determined, so that the typhoon events in the first random event set are processed, and a target random event set is obtained. Therefore, the finally determined typhoon event can reflect the typhoon risk in the future scene.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of typhoon disaster prediction, and in particular to a method, device, equipment and medium for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change. Background Art

[0002] Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing humanity in the future, and its impact on the economy is growing. The international community has begun to study the inclusion of climate risk in the financial risk management framework. Extreme climate events under climate change are frequent, posing substantial physical and transition risks to the investment portfolios of financial institutions. In order to effectively deal with the risks of climate risk to financial institutions, climate risk management is necessary, and climate risk stress testing is an important handle and tool for climate risk management.

[0003] Physical risk is essentially extreme weather risk, and typhoon is one of the important causes of disasters. In order to achieve better test results when stress testing climate risks such as typhoons, it is often necessary to quantify risks through catastrophe models. When using catastrophe models, it is necessary to prepare a certain set of typhoon events as input to the catastrophe models. In the prior art, when generating a typhoon event set, a certain disturbance is often made to the typhoon events that have occurred in history to generate a typhoon event set. The event set generated in this way is often limited by historical data and cannot fully reflect the changes in typhoon risks in future scenarios. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of this, the present invention provides a method, device, equipment and medium for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change to solve the problem that the existing typhoon event set cannot reflect the physical risks of typhoons in future scenarios.

[0005] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change, the method comprising:

[0006] Obtain historical tropical cyclone track datasets corresponding to current climate scenarios;

[0007] Based on the historical tropical cyclone path data set, generating a first random event set and an alternative random event set through a preset typhoon event generation model;

[0008] Determine the landfalling typhoon events in the first random event set and the sea area level and landing level corresponding to each landfalling typhoon event, and generate the first landfalling typhoon proportion table based on the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels;

[0009] Obtain a table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area in the future under the preset climate scenario;

[0010] Based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the annual average number of sea area typhoon changes table, determining the increase or decrease number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set;

[0011] Based on the increase and decrease in the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set, the typhoon events in the first random event set are processed to obtain a target random event set.

[0012] The method generates a first random event set and an alternative random event set through a historical tropical cyclone path data set, and generates a landing typhoon proportion table according to the sea level and landing level corresponding to the landfalling typhoon in the first random event set, so as to determine the increase and decrease number of typhoon events at different levels in the first random event set in combination with the annual average number change table of sea typhoons in future periods under a preset climate scenario, so as to process the typhoon events in the first random event set to obtain a target random event set, so that the typhoon event set finally obtained can take into account the change in the number of typhoons in future scenarios, and when a typhoon risk stress test is performed according to the typhoon event set, a better test effect can be achieved.

[0013] In an optional implementation, the random event set includes: typhoon events corresponding to multiple random years;

[0014] The determining of the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the sea area typhoon annual average number change table includes:

[0015] Based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the annual average number change table of sea area typhoons, determine the annual average change number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels;

[0016] The increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels is determined based on the average annual change in the number of typhoon events under the different sea area levels and landing levels and the number of random years corresponding to the first random event set.

[0017] In this implementation mode, the average annual change number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set is determined through the first landfalling typhoon ratio table and the average annual number change table of sea area typhoons, and the increase or decrease number of typhoon events at each level is obtained in combination with the total number of random years in the first random event set. The increase or decrease number of typhoon events in the first random event set can be determined more accurately in combination with the change in the number of typhoons in the future period, so as to facilitate the subsequent adjustment of the typhoon events in the first random event set.

[0018] In an optional implementation, the processing of the typhoon events in the first random event set based on the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set includes:

[0019] Determine the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at each sea level and landfall level;

[0020] If the increase or decrease number of typhoon events is negative, in the typhoon events corresponding to the sea level and the landing level in the first random event set, multiple random samplings are performed according to the increase or decrease number, and the typhoon events collected each time are deleted;

[0021] If the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events is positive, multiple random samplings are performed among the typhoon events corresponding to the sea area level and the landing level in the alternative random event set according to the increase or decrease in the number, and the collected typhoon events are added to the first random event set.

[0022] In this implementation mode, by randomly sampling and deleting typhoon events in the first random event set and randomly sampling and adding typhoon events in the alternative random event set to the first random event set according to the positive and negative changes in the number of typhoon events corresponding to each sea area level and landing level, it can ensure that the typhoon events in the first random event set are consistent with the changes in the number of typhoons in a specific period of time under future scenarios, and provide a scientific, objective and relatively stable risk quantification basis for subsequent typhoon risk stress testing.

[0023] In an optional implementation, the random event set further includes: weights corresponding to each typhoon event;

[0024] The performing of multiple random samplings according to the increase and decrease quantity includes:

[0025] For each random sampling, a normalized calculation is performed based on the weight of the current typhoon event under the corresponding sea area level and landing level to obtain a normalized weight interval;

[0026] The sampling random number is determined by setting a random number seed and a random number generator, and the typhoon event corresponding to this random sampling is determined based on the sampling random number and the normalized weight interval.

[0027] In this implementation, the random number for sampling is determined by setting a random number seed and a random number generator, thereby ensuring the reproducibility and randomness of random sampling.

[0028] In an optional implementation, the first random event set includes: typhoon events corresponding to multiple random years;

[0029] The step of adding the collected typhoon events to the first random event set includes:

[0030] Determine the increase in the number of random years in the first random event set under the corresponding sea level and landing level according to the Poisson distribution;

[0031] According to the increase number corresponding to each random year, the typhoon events collected in the candidate random event set are added to the corresponding random years in the first random event set.

[0032] In this embodiment, after typhoon events are collected in the alternative random event set, the number of typhoons that need to be added in each random year is determined through Poisson distribution, thereby adding the typhoon events collected from the alternative random event set to the corresponding random year, so that the typhoon events added in the first random event set conform to the actual typhoon distribution.

[0033] In an optional implementation, after obtaining the target random event set, the method further includes:

[0034] Comparing the target random event set with the first random event set, and counting the change rate of typhoon events corresponding to each landing level;

[0035] Whether the target random event set is qualified is determined based on the preset change parameters and the change rate of the typhoon events corresponding to each landing level.

[0036] In this embodiment, the final target random event set is compared with the first random event set to determine the change rate of typhoon events at each level and compare it with the preset change parameters to ensure that the final target random event set is consistent with the actual situation.

[0037] In an optional implementation, the table of annual average number changes of typhoons in sea areas includes: annual average number of changes of typhoon events under each sea area level;

[0038] The determining the annual average change number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the annual average number change table of sea area typhoons comprises:

[0039] Determine the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level in the first landfall typhoon proportion table;

[0040] Based on the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level and the average annual change number corresponding to each sea area level, the average annual change number of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level is determined.

[0041] In this implementation mode, the proportional relationship between typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level in the first landfall typhoon ratio table is combined with the annual average change number corresponding to each sea area level in the annual average number change table of sea area typhoons, so as to accurately obtain the annual average change number of typhoon events corresponding to each sea area level and landing level.

[0042] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a device for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change, the device comprising:

[0043] The historical data acquisition module is used to obtain the historical tropical cyclone path data set corresponding to the current climate scenario;

[0044] A random event generation module, used to generate a first random event set and an alternative random event set based on the historical tropical cyclone path data set through a preset typhoon event generation model;

[0045] A landing typhoon determination module is used to determine the landing typhoon events in the first random event set and the sea level and landing level corresponding to each landing typhoon event, and generate a first landing typhoon proportion table based on the number of typhoon events under different sea level and landing level;

[0046] The quantity change acquisition module is used to obtain the annual average quantity change table of sea typhoons in the future period under the preset climate scenario;

[0047] An increase / decrease quantity determination module, used to determine the increase / decrease quantity of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set based on the first landfall typhoon proportion table and the sea area typhoon annual average quantity change table;

[0048] The random event set processing module is used to process the typhoon events in the first random event set based on the increase and decrease number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set to obtain a target random event set.

[0049] In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computer device, comprising: a memory and a processor, the memory and the processor being communicatively connected to each other, the memory storing computer instructions, and the processor executing the method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change according to the first aspect or any corresponding embodiment thereof by executing the computer instructions.

[0050] In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having computer instructions stored thereon, the computer instructions being used to enable a computer to execute the method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change according to the first aspect or any corresponding embodiment thereof. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0051] In order to more clearly illustrate the specific implementation methods of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the specific implementation methods or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some implementation methods of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0052] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0053] Figure 2 is a flow chart of another method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 3 This is an example diagram of the comparison of the number of event sets under different levels of typhoon intensities across the country according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 4 This is an example diagram of the comparison of the average annual number of typhoon events above the preset typhoon level in different provinces in an event set according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0056] Figure 5 It is a structural block diagram of a method and device for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 6 It is a schematic diagram of the hardware structure of a computer device according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0059] Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing humanity in the future, and its impact on the economy is growing. The international community has begun to study the inclusion of climate risk in the financial risk management framework. Extreme climate events under climate change are frequent, posing substantial physical and transition risks to the investment portfolios of financial institutions. In order to effectively deal with the risks of climate risk to financial institutions, climate risk management is necessary, and climate risk stress testing is an important handle and tool for climate risk management.

[0060] Physical risk is essentially extreme weather risk, and typhoon is one of the important causes of disasters. When stress testing climate risks such as typhoons, it is necessary to prepare a certain set of typhoon events for risk stress testing. In the existing technology, when generating a typhoon event set, a certain disturbance is often made to historical typhoon events to generate a typhoon event set. The event set generated in this way is often limited by historical data and cannot fully reflect the changes in typhoon risks in future scenarios.

[0061] To this end, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change, which generates a first random event set and an alternative random event set through a historical tropical cyclone path data set, and generates a landing typhoon proportion table according to the sea area level and landing level corresponding to the landfalling typhoon in the first random event set, so as to determine the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at different levels in the first random event set in combination with the annual average number change table of sea area typhoons in future periods under a preset climate scenario, so as to process the typhoon events in the first random event set to obtain a target random event set, so that the typhoon event set finally obtained can take into account the change in the number of typhoons in future scenarios, and when a typhoon risk stress test is performed according to the typhoon event set, a better test effect can be achieved.

[0062] According to an embodiment of the present invention, an embodiment of a method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change is provided. It should be noted that the steps shown in the flowchart of the accompanying drawings can be executed in a computer system such as a set of computer executable instructions, and although a logical order is shown in the flowchart, in some cases, the steps shown or described can be executed in an order different from that shown here.

[0063] In this embodiment, a method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change is provided, which can be used for the above-mentioned typhoon event set generation. Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the process includes the following steps:

[0064] Step S101, obtaining a historical tropical cyclone path dataset corresponding to the current climate scenario.

[0065] Typhoons usually refer to tropical cyclones, but in the professional field, they are divided into different categories according to the wind force level of tropical cyclones, namely tropical depressions, tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons, and super typhoons. In addition, different countries and institutions have different classifications and names for tropical cyclones. In the method provided in this application, in order to facilitate understanding and unified naming, tropical cyclones of various wind force levels are uniformly referred to as typhoon events, that is, typhoon events in the embodiment of this method refer to tropical cyclones of various wind force levels, and are subsequently uniformly referred to as typhoons. For the path data of tropical cyclones in history, it can be obtained through relevant meteorological agencies. For example, the historical tropical cyclone path data set corresponding to the current climate scenario can be the CMA best path data set of the China Meteorological Administration, which can be obtained through relevant climate websites. The best path data set can provide the position and intensity of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific Ocean every 6 hours since 1949. In order to make the generated typhoon events more in line with the current climate scenario, while considering the accuracy of historical records in earlier periods, the best path data set from 1980 to the current year can be used for subsequent modeling.

[0066] Step S102, based on the historical tropical cyclone path data set, a first random event set and an alternative random event set are generated by a preset typhoon event generation model.

[0067] After obtaining the historical tropical cyclone path data set, a random event set can be generated based on the existing typhoon event generation model. Specifically, a typhoon random event set simulation method based on statistical dynamics can be used to generate a random event set. Specifically, when a random event set is generated by a typhoon random event set simulation method based on statistical dynamics, for each typhoon event generated, it specifically includes a typhoon generation point model, a moving path model, an intensity model, and an extinction model. These four models can generate typhoon information for the entire cycle from typhoon generation to end. The generation method of the above-mentioned typhoon events can be understood through relevant research, which will not be elaborated here.

[0068] According to this method, a first random event set and an alternative random event set can be generated, wherein the first random event set can include: a typhoon event corresponding to each of ten thousand random years, i.e., a ten thousand year event set, and the alternative event set can include a typhoon event corresponding to each of forty thousand random years, i.e., a forty thousand year event set.

[0069] For each random year, it can be understood that the typhoon event generation model generates typhoon events that may occur in a year based on the tropical cyclone path data set corresponding to the current climate scenario. At the same time, considering that the probability of typhoons is small, 10,000 random years are usually generated at a time. The typhoon events in each random year are typhoon events that may occur in a year corresponding to the current climate scenario. For the 40,000-year event set, it can be understood that the 10,000-year event set generation process is repeated four times in the above manner to obtain the 40,000-year event set.

[0070] Step S103, determining the landfalling typhoon events in the first random event set and the sea area level and landing level corresponding to each landfalling typhoon event, and generating a first landfalling typhoon proportion table based on the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels.

[0071] The generated first random event set may include the specific wind force level of each typhoon event, specifically including the sea level and the landing level, wherein the sea level refers to the maximum wind force level of the typhoon in its entire life cycle, and the landing level refers to the wind force level when the typhoon lands. For typhoons, since they originate from the ocean and since different typhoons have different moving paths, all landfalling typhoons will have a sea level, but not all sea typhoons will land.

[0072] For the typhoon events in the generated first random event set and the alternative random event set, not all typhoon events make landfall. Therefore, the coastline information data and the moving paths of each typhoon event in the first random event set can be combined to determine the landfalling typhoons in the first random event set, and the event IDs, landing locations, i.e., the provinces and longitudes and latitudes of the landing typhoons, typhoon speed at the time of landing, landing time and other information corresponding to these landfalling typhoons are counted to generate the landing typhoon information tables corresponding to the first random event set and the alternative random event set, respectively. The landing time can be understood as the specific landing time in the random year corresponding to the typhoon time. Specifically, in the landing typhoon information table, in addition to the above-mentioned information, it can also include: the maximum wind speed and wind force level in the life cycle, the landing wind force level and other information.

[0073] Specifically, for the time ID of a typhoon event, it can be composed by coding according to the year, month, day and typhoon number of the year when the typhoon was generated, so the ID is unique. At the same time, the year, month, day and number of each event ID can be reversely parsed.

[0074] After obtaining the landing typhoon information table, the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels in the typhoon events under each sea level can be determined to obtain the first landing typhoon proportion table. An exemplary first landing typhoon proportion table can be shown in Table 1:

[0075] Table 1

[0076]

[0077]

[0078] As shown in Table 1 above, it reflects the proportion of typhoon events of each landing level in typhoon events of different sea level. Taking sea level 2 as an example, the information in the table shows that in the first random event set, among typhoon events of sea level 2, a total of 27.58% of typhoon events landed, of which typhoon events of landing level 1 accounted for 20.37% of all typhoon events of sea level 2, and so on, and typhoon events of other landing levels will not be repeated here.

[0079] Step S104, obtaining a table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area in the future period under a preset climate scenario.

[0080] The preset climate scenario can be understood as the climate situation under a certain gas emission scenario, which can be represented by a scientific combination of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), namely SSP-RCP, where RCPs is a series of comprehensive concentration and emission scenarios, which are used as input parameters of the climate change prediction model under the influence of human activities in the 21st century to describe the emissions of greenhouse gases, reactive gases, aerosols, and the concentrations of atmospheric components when future population, socio-economics, science and technology, energy consumption and land use change. The preset climate scenario mentioned in step S104 can be understood as corresponding to different climate scenarios under different emission scenarios. When actually generating an event set, the information under the required climate scenario can be selected according to the actual situation, that is, the changes in the average annual number of sea typhoons in the future period under the preset climate scenario.

[0081] Specifically, the RCPs include a high emission scenario (8.5 W × m -2 ,RCP8.5), a medium emission scenario (6.0 WW×m -2 ,RCP6.0) and a low emission scenario (2.6WW×m -2 , RCP2.6). Among them, RCP8.5 causes the largest temperature rise, followed by RCP6.0, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 have the smallest impact on global warming. An important difference among the four different scenario models is the difference in future land use planning.

[0082] Through relevant scientific research data and expert experience, we can determine the changes in the average annual number of typhoons in a certain period of time in the future under the climate conditions corresponding to a certain emission scenario corresponding to an SSP-RCP compared to the average annual number of typhoons corresponding to the current climate scenario, thereby obtaining a table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area in the future period under the preset climate scenario.

[0083] For example, taking a certain RCP emission scenario as an example, assuming that the current year is 2024, and the future period refers to 2024 to 2030, the number of typhoon events of different sea levels in the future period under a certain RCP emission scenario is given through expert experience, thereby obtaining the average annual number of typhoons in the future period. It should be noted that the specific path of the typhoon is difficult to determine through expert experience, so it is impossible to predict the specific number of typhoons that land, but the number of typhoons of different sea levels can be inferred based on specific climate conditions and related research, so the number of typhoons of different sea levels in the future period can be obtained.

[0084] At the same time, combined with the year corresponding to the historical tropical cyclone path data set corresponding to the current climate scenario mentioned in the above step S101, taking 1980-2024 as an example, the number of typhoon events of different sea area levels in this period of events is counted, so as to obtain the annual average number of typhoons corresponding to this historical period.

[0085] Compare the average annual number of typhoons in the future period with the average annual number of typhoons in the historical period corresponding to the current climate scenario to obtain a table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area. For example, the table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area can be shown in Table 2:

[0086] Table 2

[0087] Sea level The average annual change 2 -0.848 3 -0.537 4 -0.452 5 -0.283 6 -0.176 7 -0.112 8 -0.018 9 -0.034 10 -0.002 … … 16 0.109 17 0.054 18 0.042

[0088] As shown above, we can obtain the changes in the average annual number of typhoons corresponding to different sea area levels in the future period under the preset climate scenario compared with the average annual number of typhoons corresponding to the current climate scenario.

[0089] Step S105, based on the first landfalling typhoon ratio table and the sea area typhoon annual average number change table, determine the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set.

[0090] The first landing typhoon proportion table includes the proportion of typhoon events at various sea level and the proportion of typhoon events at various landing levels. After determining the sea area typhoon annual average number change table, combined with the annual average change number of typhoon events at different sea level in the sea area typhoon annual average number change table, the annual average change number corresponding to different sea level and landing level can be obtained. At the same time, according to how many random years the first random event set specifically consists of, the increase and decrease number of typhoon events at various sea level and landing level in the first random event set is determined.

[0091] Step S106, based on the increase and decrease number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set, the typhoon events in the first random event set are processed to obtain a target random event set.

[0092] After determining the increase or decrease in the number of typhoons corresponding to different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set, some typhoon events at sea area levels and landing levels that need to be reduced can be directly randomly deleted from the first random event set; for some typhoon events at sea area levels and landing levels that need to be increased, they need to be randomly selected from the alternative random event set and added to the first random event set. Finally, after adding and deleting the first random event set, the target random event set can be obtained.

[0093] The method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change provided in the present embodiment generates a first random event set and an alternative random event set through a historical tropical cyclone path data set, and generates a landfall typhoon proportion table according to the sea area level and the landing level corresponding to the landfall typhoon in the first random event set, so as to determine the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at different levels in the first random event set in combination with the table of changes in the average annual number of sea area typhoons in future periods under a preset climate scenario, so as to process the typhoon events in the first random event set to obtain a target random event set, so that the typhoon event set finally obtained can take into account the changes in the number of typhoons in future scenarios, and when a typhoon risk stress test is performed according to the typhoon event set, a better test effect can be achieved.

[0094] According to an embodiment of the present invention, another embodiment of a method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change is provided, which can be used for the above-mentioned typhoon event set generation. Figure 2 is a flow chart of another method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 As shown, the process includes the following steps:

[0095] Step S201, obtain a historical tropical cyclone path dataset corresponding to the current climate scenario. Figure 1 Step S101 of the illustrated embodiment will not be described in detail here.

[0096] Step S202, based on the historical tropical cyclone path data set, a first random event set and an alternative random event set are generated by a preset typhoon event generation model.

[0097] Specifically, in step S202, the random event set includes: typhoon events corresponding to multiple random years.

[0098] It can be understood that when a random event set is generated by a preset typhoon event generation model, typhoon events of multiple random years corresponding to the current climate scenario will be generated, and the typhoon events corresponding to these multiple random years will constitute the first random event set. Similarly, the generation method of the alternative random event set is the same, which will not be repeated here. For details, please refer to Figure 1 Step S202 of the illustrated embodiment will not be described in detail here.

[0099] Step S203, determining the landfall typhoon events in the first random event set and the sea level and landing level corresponding to each landfall typhoon event, and generating a first landfall typhoon proportion table based on the number of typhoon events at different sea level and landing level. Figure 1 Step S103 of the illustrated embodiment will not be described in detail here.

[0100] Step S204, obtaining a table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area in the future period under a preset climate scenario.

[0101] Specifically, in step S204, the table of annual average number changes of typhoons in sea areas includes: the annual average number of changes in typhoon events at each sea area level.

[0102] It can be understood that the table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area is the change in the average annual number of typhoon events in each sea area level in the future period under a climate scenario based on a certain gas emission intensity compared with the historical period under the current climate scenario. For details, please refer to Figure 1 Table 2 of the illustrated examples.

[0103] Step S205, based on the first landfalling typhoon ratio table and the annual average number of sea typhoons change table, determine the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at different sea levels and landing levels in the first random event set.

[0104] Specifically, in step S205, it includes:

[0105] Step S205-1, based on the first landfalling typhoon ratio table and the annual average number of sea typhoon changes table, determine the annual average change number of typhoon events under different sea level and landing level.

[0106] After determining the table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area, it can be combined with the first landfalling typhoon proportion table obtained above to determine the average annual change in the number of typhoon events corresponding to different sea area levels and landing levels. For example, determine the average annual change in the number of typhoon events corresponding to sea area level 2 and landing level 1, the average annual change in the number of typhoon events corresponding to sea area level 2 and landing level 2, etc.

[0107] Specifically, in step S205-1, based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the sea area typhoon annual average number change table, the annual average change number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels is determined, including:

[0108] Determine the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level in the first landfall typhoon proportion table;

[0109] Based on the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level and the average annual change number corresponding to each sea area level, the average annual change number of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level is determined.

[0110] With the above Figure 1 Taking Table 1 and Table 2 in the illustrated embodiment as examples, taking sea level 2 as an example, in Table 2, the corresponding average annual change number is -0.848. In Table 1, the proportion of typhoon events of sea level 2 and landing level 1 relative to all typhoon events of sea level 2 is 20.37%, and the proportion of typhoon events of sea level 2 and landing level 2 is 7.31%. The average annual change number corresponding to sea level 2 and landing level 1 is 20.37%×(-0.848)=-0.1726. By analogy, the average annual change number of typhoon events corresponding to different sea level and landing level can be determined, which can be shown in Table 3 as an example:

[0111] Table 3

[0112]

[0113]

[0114] Step S205-2, determining the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels based on the average annual change in the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels and the number of random years corresponding to the first random event set.

[0115] After determining the average annual change in the number of typhoon events under different sea level and landing level, the number of random years in the first random event set is combined to obtain the increase and decrease in the number of typhoon events under different sea level and landing level. For example, as mentioned above Figure 1As shown in step S102 of the illustrated embodiment, the generated first random event set may be a set of events for 10,000 years, then in the first random event set, the number of typhoon increases and decreases at each sea level and landing level is the number of corresponding annual average changes multiplied by 10,000. Exemplarily, in the first random event set, the number of typhoon events corresponding to sea level 1 and landing level 1 is -0.1726×10000=-1726, that is, 1726 typhoon events of sea level 1 and landing level 1 need to be reduced in the first random event set.

[0116] Step S206, based on the increase and decrease number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set, the typhoon events in the first random event set are processed to obtain a target random event set.

[0117] Specifically, in step S206, based on the increase and decrease of the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the candidate random event set, the typhoon events in the first random event set are processed, including:

[0118] Step S206-1, determine the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at each sea level and landing level.

[0119] In the above step S205, the increase or decrease number of typhoon events corresponding to different sea area levels and landing levels is determined. Before processing the first random data set, it is necessary to first determine the increase or decrease number of typhoon events corresponding to each sea area level and landing level. Taking the above Table 3 as an example, the increase or decrease number of typhoon events corresponding to sea area level 2 and landing level 1 is -0.1726×10000, that is, -1726.

[0120] Step S206-2, if the increase or decrease number of typhoon events is negative, in the typhoon events corresponding to the sea level and the landing level in the first random event set, multiple random samplings are performed according to the increase or decrease number, and each collected typhoon event is deleted.

[0121] It can be understood that when the increase or decrease number of typhoon events corresponding to a certain sea level and landing level is negative, it means that compared with the future climate scenario, the number of typhoon events at this level has decreased, so it is necessary to reduce the typhoon events corresponding to this level in the first random event set. Therefore, it is necessary to perform multiple random samplings in the typhoon events of the sea level and landing level corresponding to the first random event set according to the increase or decrease number, and delete the sampled typhoon events. Taking sea level 2 and landing level 1 as an example, the corresponding increase or decrease number is -1726, so it is necessary to perform 1726 samplings in all typhoon events of sea level 2 and landing level 1 in the first random event set, and delete these typhoon events.

[0122] Step S206-3, if the increase or decrease number of typhoon events is positive, multiple random samplings are performed among the typhoon events corresponding to the sea area level and the landing level in the alternative random event set according to the increase or decrease number, and the collected typhoon events are added to the first random event set.

[0123] Similarly, referring to the corresponding explanation in the above step S206-2, for the sea area level and landing level with positive typhoon increase or decrease, multiple random sampling is required in the alternative random event set, and the sampled typhoon events are added to the first random event set.

[0124] Specifically, the random event set generated in the above step S202 also includes: weights corresponding to each typhoon event.

[0125] It can be understood that in the generated random time set, the initial weight corresponding to each typhoon event is 1. However, considering that in actual climate research, some scholars have proposed the conclusion that the typhoon path has a trend of moving northward, different weights can be set for typhoon events at different longitudes and latitudes based on expert experience. For example, a higher weight is set for typhoon events in the northern part of the landing province, so that when sampling typhoon events in the future, the typhoon path deviation under actual conditions can be considered and corresponding additions or deletions can be made. It should be noted that whether the typhoon path moves northward needs to be determined in combination with relevant research and specific expert experience. In some studies, it is believed that there is a northward deviation, and in some studies, it is believed that there is no northward deviation. However, in the context of future climate change, with the influence of multiple factors such as atmospheric structure and sea temperature conditions, the typhoon path will inevitably be offset compared to history. Therefore, the weights corresponding to typhoon events at different landing locations can be set in combination with actual expert experience, so that the subsequent extraction of typhoon events can be adapted to the path deviation.

[0126] The setting of weights needs to be based on expert experience or relevant scientific basis. The weight of each typhoon can be adjusted. By adjusting the weight according to the landing location (latitude and longitude / province), the probability of typhoon events in the area of ​​interest obtained in subsequent sampling can be increased, thereby achieving the purpose of typhoon path deviation.

[0127] For example, taking typhoon (TY) level tropical cyclones as an example, under the current climate conditions, the average annual number of typhoon (TY) level and above tropical cyclones landing in Hainan is 0.47, the average annual number of landing in Guangdong is 0.90, and the average annual number of landing in Shandong is 0.02. If the weights are all set to 1, then after the addition or deletion of the 10,000-year event set, the average annual landing number ratio of each province should not change in theory, and it should still be 0.47:0.9:0.02.

[0128] If relevant research shows that the number of typhoons landing in Shandong increases by 100%, the weight of typhoon events landing in Shandong can be set to 2. Then, after adding or deleting the 10,000-year event set, the average annual number of typhoons landing in each province can be 0.47:0.9:0.04.

[0129] Specifically, in step S206-2 and step S206-3, multiple random samplings are performed according to the increase and decrease quantity, including:

[0130] For each random sampling, a normalized calculation is performed based on the weight of the current typhoon event under the corresponding sea area level and landing level to obtain a normalized weight interval;

[0131] The sampling random number is determined by setting the random number seed and the random number generator. Based on the sampling random number and the normalized weight interval, the typhoon event corresponding to this random sampling is determined.

[0132] It can be understood that, during each random sampling, the typhoon events corresponding to the sea area level and landing level in the current first random event set or the alternative random event set can be counted, and normalized according to the weights corresponding to these typhoon events to generate a weight interval, with each typhoon event corresponding to a part of the interval.

[0133] At the same time, a random number seed and a random number generator are set to generate a sampling random number. According to the interval corresponding to the typhoon event in which the sampling random number is located, the typhoon event corresponding to this random sampling is determined. After each random sampling, normalization is performed again to obtain a new weight interval, and a new random sampling is performed until the sampling is completed for the number of times corresponding to the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events. By setting the random number seed and generator, each set of random numbers can be reproduced.

[0134] Specifically, in step S206-3, the collected typhoon events are added to the first random event set, including:

[0135] Determine the increase in the number of random years in the first random event set under the corresponding sea level and landing level according to the Poisson distribution;

[0136] According to the increase number corresponding to each random year, the typhoon events collected in the candidate random event set are added to the corresponding random years in the first random event set.

[0137] It can be understood that since the first random event set is composed of typhoon events corresponding to multiple random years, after the typhoon events that need to be added to the first random event set are determined in the alternative random event set, it is necessary to determine which random years these typhoon events will be added to. Since in actual application scenarios, the distribution of typhoons in historical periods obeys the Poisson distribution, the Poisson distribution can be used to determine the specific year to which the typhoon events that need to be added are added. Specifically, the distribution of typhoon events that need to be added can be determined based on the specific average annual number of typhoon increases as a Poisson distribution parameter.

[0138] For example, the distribution of newly added typhoon events can be shown in Table 4:

[0139] Table 4

[0140]

[0141] In the table, the simulation year refers to the random year in the first random event set. These random years are sorted from 1 to 10000, where N TD 、N TS 、N H1 、N H2 、N H3 、N H4 and N H2 Refers to the typhoon events of different landing levels in the first random event set, with POISSON(λ H1 ) as an example, the corresponding column is N H1 The specific distribution of typhoon events in each random year that needs to be added to the first random event set at the level, where λ H1 It is the Poisson distribution parameter, specifically the average annual increase in the number of typhoons under the corresponding typhoon level. Taking the typhoon events corresponding to sea level 18 and landfall level 18 in Table 3 above, when determining the corresponding Poisson distribution, the Poisson distribution parameter is 0.0004.

[0142] N TD 、N TS 、N H1 、N H2 、N H3 、N H4 and N H5They respectively refer to tropical depression, tropical storm, Category 1 hurricane, Category 2 hurricane, Category 3 hurricane, Category 4 hurricane and Category 5 hurricane. The classification standard is based on literature research (Saffir-Simpson-scale). These typhoon grade classifications can be understood as typhoon grade classifications under major categories. The typhoon grade classification standard in the above-mentioned related illustrative examples in the embodiments of the present invention is based on the above-mentioned intensity grade classification, and a more detailed grade division is performed on the wind speed level, corresponding to grades 1-18 respectively.

[0143] This step determines the year in which each typhoon needs to be added. For example, if 10 typhoons are added every 10,000 years at a certain level, it is unreasonable for these 10 typhoons to be added in the same year. It is necessary to determine the actual distribution of their annual probability of occurrence. The parameter of the distribution function is the average annual increase. For example, after the sampling process is completed, the list of typhoons that can be reduced and added after sampling can be output with the following attributes: event ID, year, day, hour.

[0144] Step S207, comparing the target random event set with the first random event set, and counting the change rate of typhoon events corresponding to each landing level;

[0145] Whether the target random event set is qualified is determined based on the preset change parameters and the change rate of typhoon events corresponding to each landing level.

[0146] It can be understood that the number of typhoon events under various landing levels in the target random event set and the first random event set are compared, and the change rate between the two event sets is compared, and the change rate is compared with the preset parameter range corresponding to each landing level. If the change rate is within the preset range, it means it is qualified.

[0147] Exemplary, reference Figure 3 As shown, it is an example diagram of the comparison of the number of event sets under different levels of typhoon intensities across the country according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 The number of typhoon events of different landing levels in the first random event set and the target random event set, as well as the rate of change between the two, are displayed. For different landing levels, the corresponding rate of change range can be set according to expert experience. By judging the relationship between the rate of change corresponding to each landing level and the preset rate of change range, it is determined whether the processed target random event set is qualified.

[0148] Specifically, the average annual change number of landfalling typhoons greater than a certain landing level corresponding to each province in the first random event set and the target random event set can also be counted to obtain the change rate between the average annual change number of landfalling typhoons in each province in the target random event set and the first random event set, as shown in the example. Figure 4As shown, it is an example diagram comparing the average annual number of typhoon events above the preset typhoon level in different provinces in an event set according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 4 The average annual change in the number of typhoons above TY level in each province in the first random event set and the second random event set is shown in the figure. The change rate between the two is compared with the corresponding change rate range of each province to determine whether the target random event set is qualified.

[0149] The typhoon event set generation method based on climate change provided by the embodiment of the present invention generates a first random event set and an alternative random event set through a historical tropical cyclone path data set, and generates a landing typhoon proportion table according to the sea area level and landing level corresponding to the landfalling typhoon in the first random event set, so as to determine the increase or decrease number of typhoon events at different levels in the first random event set in combination with the annual average number change table of sea area typhoons in future periods under a preset climate scenario, so as to process the typhoon events in the first random event set to obtain a target random event set, so that the typhoon event set finally obtained can take into account the change in the number of typhoons in future scenarios, and when a typhoon risk stress test is performed according to the typhoon event set, a better test effect can be achieved.

[0150] The typhoon event set in the existing data reflects the characteristics of typhoon activity under the climate scenario of that year. According to the research on the intensity / frequency of typhoon disasters in different regions under future climate change scenarios, the typhoon event set generation method based on climate change corresponding to the embodiment of the present invention is adopted for secondary sampling, which can effectively increase the tail risk. By adjusting the statistical characteristics of the event set, a scientific and relatively economical way can be achieved to quantify the climate change risk using a catastrophe model.

[0151] By combining the typhoon event set provided by the embodiment of the present invention with the catastrophe model to quantify climate change risks, it is possible to strengthen internal climate change risk management capabilities and incorporate climate change into the comprehensive risk management system. Establish climate change risk preferences and assessments in accordance with regulatory requirements. Improve the internal climate change governance mechanism and make relevant disclosure reports. The core is to quantify climate change risks and support decision-making behavior. It is also possible to systematically design climate change insurance products, consider separating climate change products from general catastrophe products, and meet regulatory and investment requirements. Develop climate change + credit insurance products to support banking institutions in preventing risks. Develop climate change index products and green building insurance to prevent agricultural climate change risks. When the time is right, consider expanding the protection of disasters to sea level rise, extreme cold and drought.

[0152] At the same time, climate change factors can also be introduced into the investment decision-making system, that is, considering the climate change risks of the invested products (regulatory requirements), establishing a climate change and even ESG scoring system, considering transition risks, and incorporating them into strategic asset allocation decisions. For bond assets, the degree of climate risk exposure will affect bond ratings. For equity assets, climate change has an impact on the company's future earnings, the value of existing assets, and investment-related risks, and the above factors can affect corporate valuations. Climate risks will have an impact on the valuation of equity assets and the cost of equity capital, which will lead to significant fluctuations in stock prices and higher equity capital costs. Other real estate projects need to consider location, building features, and historical climate conditions to avoid extreme risks.

[0153] In this embodiment, a device for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change is also provided, and the device is used to implement the above-mentioned embodiments and preferred implementation modes, and the descriptions that have been made will not be repeated. As used below, the term "module" can implement a combination of software and / or hardware of a predetermined function. Although the devices described in the following embodiments are preferably implemented in software, the implementation of hardware, or a combination of software and hardware, is also possible and conceivable.

[0154] This embodiment provides a typhoon event set generation device based on climate change, such as Figure 5 As shown, including:

[0155] The historical data acquisition module 401 is used to acquire a historical tropical cyclone path dataset corresponding to the current climate scenario.

[0156] The random event generation module 402 is used to generate a first random event set and an alternative random event set based on a historical tropical cyclone path data set and through a preset typhoon event generation model.

[0157] The landing typhoon determination module 403 is used to determine the landing typhoon events in the first random event set and the sea area level and landing level corresponding to each landing typhoon event, and generate a first landing typhoon proportion table based on the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels.

[0158] The quantity change acquisition module 404 is used to obtain the table of annual average quantity changes of typhoons in the sea area in the future period under the preset climate scenario.

[0159] The increase / decrease quantity determination module 405 is used to determine the increase / decrease quantity of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set based on the first landfalling typhoon ratio table and the sea area typhoon annual average quantity change table.

[0160] The random event set processing module 406 is used to process the typhoon events in the first random event set based on the increase and decrease number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set to obtain a target random event set.

[0161] In some optional implementations, the random event set includes: typhoon events corresponding to multiple random years, and the increase and decrease quantity determination module 405, when determining the increase and decrease quantity of typhoon events at different sea level and landing level in the first random event set based on the first landing typhoon ratio table and the sea area typhoon annual average quantity change table, includes:

[0162] Based on the first landfalling typhoon ratio table and the annual average number of typhoons in the sea area, the annual average number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels is determined;

[0163] According to the average annual change in the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels and the number of random years corresponding to the first random event set, the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels is determined.

[0164] In some optional implementations, the random event set processing module 406, when processing the typhoon events in the first random event set based on the increase and decrease number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set, includes:

[0165] Determine the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at each sea level and landfall level;

[0166] If the increase or decrease number of typhoon events is negative, in the typhoon events corresponding to the sea level and the landing level in the first random event set, multiple random samplings are performed according to the increase or decrease number, and the typhoon events collected each time are deleted;

[0167] If the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events is positive, multiple random sampling will be performed among the typhoon events corresponding to the sea area level and landing level in the alternative random event set according to the increase or decrease in the number, and the collected typhoon events will be added to the first random event set.

[0168] In some optional implementations, the random event set further includes: weights corresponding to each typhoon event;

[0169] The random event set processing module 406, when performing multiple random sampling according to the increase or decrease quantity, includes:

[0170] For each random sampling, a normalized calculation is performed based on the weight of the current typhoon event under the corresponding sea area level and landing level to obtain a normalized weight interval;

[0171] The sampling random number is determined by setting the random number seed and the random number generator. Based on the sampling random number and the normalized weight interval, the typhoon event corresponding to this random sampling is determined.

[0172] In some optional implementations, the random event set processing module 406, when adding the collected typhoon event to the first random event set, includes:

[0173] Determine the increase in the number of random years in the first random event set under the corresponding sea level and landing level according to the Poisson distribution;

[0174] According to the increase number corresponding to each random year, the typhoon events collected in the candidate random event set are added to the corresponding random years in the first random event set.

[0175] In some optional implementations, the random event set processing module 406, after obtaining the target random event set, is further used to compare the target random event set with the first random event set, and to count the change rate of typhoon events corresponding to each landing level;

[0176] Whether the target random event set is qualified is determined based on the preset change parameters and the change rate of typhoon events corresponding to each landing level.

[0177] In some optional implementations, the table of annual average number changes of typhoons in sea areas includes: annual average number of changes of typhoon events under each sea area level;

[0178] The increase / decrease quantity determination module 405, when determining the annual average change number of typhoon events under different sea level and landing level based on the first landfalling typhoon ratio table and the sea area typhoon annual average quantity change table, includes:

[0179] Determine the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level in the first landfall typhoon proportion table;

[0180] Based on the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level and the average annual change number corresponding to each sea area level, the average annual change number of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level is determined.

[0181] The further functional description of each of the above modules and units is the same as that of the above corresponding embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0182] The typhoon event set generation device based on climate change in this embodiment is presented in the form of a functional unit, where the unit refers to an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) circuit, a processor and memory that executes one or more software or fixed programs, and / or other devices that can provide the above functions.

[0183] The embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer device having the above Figure 5 The device for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change is shown.

[0184] See also Figure 6 , Figure 6 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer device provided by an optional embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 6 As shown, the computer device includes: one or more processors 10, a memory 20, and interfaces for connecting various components, including high-speed interfaces and low-speed interfaces. Various components are connected to each other using different buses for communication, and can be installed on a common mainboard or installed in other ways as needed. The processor can process the instructions executed in the computer device, including instructions stored in or on the memory to display the graphical information of the GUI on an external input / output device (such as, a display device coupled to the interface). In some optional embodiments, if necessary, multiple processors and / or multiple buses can be used together with multiple memories and multiple memories. Similarly, multiple computer devices can be connected, and each device provides some necessary operations (for example, as a server array, a group of blade servers, or a multi-processor system). Figure 6 A processor 10 is taken as an example.

[0185] The processor 10 may be a central processing unit, a network processor or a combination thereof. The processor 10 may further include a hardware chip. The hardware chip may be a dedicated integrated circuit, a programmable logic device or a combination thereof. The programmable logic device may be a complex programmable logic device, a field programmable gate array, a general purpose array logic or any combination thereof.

[0186] The memory 20 stores instructions executable by at least one processor 10, so that at least one processor 10 executes the method shown in the above embodiment.

[0187] The memory 20 may include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area may store an operating system, an application required for at least one function; the data storage area may store data created according to the use of the computer device, etc. In addition, the memory 20 may include a high-speed random access memory, and may also include a non-transient memory, such as at least one disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other non-transient solid-state storage device. In some optional embodiments, the memory 20 may optionally include a memory remotely arranged relative to the processor 10, and these remote memories may be connected to the computer device via a network. Examples of the above-mentioned network include, but are not limited to, the Internet, an intranet, a local area network, a mobile communication network, and combinations thereof.

[0188] The memory 20 may include a volatile memory, such as a random access memory; the memory may also include a non-volatile memory, such as a flash memory, a hard disk or a solid state drive; the memory 20 may also include a combination of the above types of memory.

[0189] The computer device also includes an input device 30 and an output device 40. The processor 10, the memory 20, the input device 30 and the output device 40 may be connected via a bus or other means. Figure 6 The example of connecting through bus is taken in the following.

[0190] The input device 30 can receive input digital or character information, and generate key signal input related to the user settings and function control of the computer device, such as a touch screen, a keypad, a mouse, a track pad, a touch pad, an indicator bar, one or more mouse buttons, a trackball, a joystick, etc. The output device 40 may include a display device, an auxiliary lighting device (e.g., an LED) and a tactile feedback device (e.g., a vibration motor), etc. The above-mentioned display device includes but is not limited to a liquid crystal display, a light emitting diode, a display and a plasma display. In some optional embodiments, the display device can be a touch screen.

[0191] The embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium. The method according to the embodiment of the present invention can be implemented in hardware, firmware, or can be implemented as a computer code that can be recorded in a storage medium, or can be implemented as a computer code that is originally stored in a remote storage medium or a non-temporary machine-readable storage medium and will be stored in a local storage medium through a network download, so that the method described herein can be stored in such software processing on a storage medium using a general-purpose computer, a dedicated processor, or programmable or dedicated hardware. Among them, the storage medium can be a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a read-only storage memory, a random access memory, a flash memory, a hard disk or a solid-state hard disk, etc.; further, the storage medium can also include a combination of the above types of memories. It can be understood that a computer, a processor, a microprocessor controller, or programmable hardware includes a storage component that can store or receive software or computer code. When the software or computer code is accessed and executed by a computer, a processor, or hardware, the method shown in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0192] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, those skilled in the art may make various modifications and variations without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, and such modifications and variations are all within the scope defined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain historical tropical cyclone track datasets corresponding to current climate scenarios; Based on the historical tropical cyclone path data set, generating a first random event set and an alternative random event set through a preset typhoon event generation model; Determine the landfalling typhoon events in the first random event set and the sea area level and landing level corresponding to each landfalling typhoon event, and generate the first landfalling typhoon proportion table based on the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels; Obtain a table of changes in the average annual number of typhoons in the sea area in the future under the preset climate scenario; Based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the annual average number of sea area typhoon changes table, determining the increase or decrease number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set; Based on the increase and decrease in the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set, the typhoon events in the first random event set are processed to obtain a target random event set.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The random event set includes: typhoon events corresponding to multiple random years; The determining of the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the sea area typhoon annual average number change table includes: Based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the annual average number change table of sea area typhoons, determine the annual average change number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels; The increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels is determined based on the average annual change in the number of typhoon events under the different sea area levels and landing levels and the number of random years corresponding to the first random event set.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The processing of the typhoon events in the first random event set based on the increase and decrease in the number of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set includes: Determine the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events at each sea level and landfall level; If the increase or decrease number of typhoon events is negative, in the typhoon events corresponding to the sea level and the landing level in the first random event set, multiple random samplings are performed according to the increase or decrease number, and the typhoon events collected each time are deleted; If the increase or decrease in the number of typhoon events is positive, multiple random samplings are performed among the typhoon events corresponding to the sea area level and the landing level in the alternative random event set according to the increase or decrease in the number, and the collected typhoon events are added to the first random event set.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The random event set also includes: weights corresponding to each typhoon event; The performing of multiple random samplings according to the increase and decrease quantity includes: For each random sampling, a normalized calculation is performed based on the weight of the current typhoon event under the corresponding sea area level and landing level to obtain a normalized weight interval; The sampling random number is determined by setting a random number seed and a random number generator, and the typhoon event corresponding to this random sampling is determined based on the sampling random number and the normalized weight interval.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The first random event set includes: typhoon events corresponding to multiple random years; The step of adding the collected typhoon events to the first random event set includes: Determine the increase in the number of random years in the first random event set under the corresponding sea level and landing level according to the Poisson distribution; According to the increase number corresponding to each random year, the typhoon events collected in the candidate random event set are added to the corresponding random years in the first random event set.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that After obtaining the target random event set, the method further includes: Comparing the target random event set with the first random event set, and counting the change rate of typhoon events corresponding to each landing level; Whether the target random event set is qualified is determined based on the preset change parameters and the change rate of the typhoon events corresponding to each landing level.

7. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The table of annual average number of typhoons in the sea area includes: annual average number of typhoon events under each sea area level; The determining the annual average change number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels based on the first landfalling typhoon proportion table and the annual average number change table of sea area typhoons comprises: Determine the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level in the first landfall typhoon proportion table; Based on the proportion of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level and the average annual change number corresponding to each sea area level, the average annual change number of typhoon events of different landing levels under each sea area level is determined.

8. A device for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change, characterized in that: The device comprises: The historical data acquisition module is used to obtain the historical tropical cyclone path data set corresponding to the current climate scenario; A random event generation module, used to generate a first random event set and an alternative random event set based on the historical tropical cyclone path data set through a preset typhoon event generation model; A landing typhoon determination module is used to determine the landing typhoon events in the first random event set and the sea level and landing level corresponding to each landing typhoon event, and generate a first landing typhoon proportion table based on the number of typhoon events under different sea level and landing level; The quantity change acquisition module is used to obtain the annual average quantity change table of sea typhoons in the future period under the preset climate scenario; An increase / decrease quantity determination module, used to determine the increase / decrease quantity of typhoon events at different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set based on the first landfall typhoon proportion table and the sea area typhoon annual average quantity change table; The random event set processing module is used to process the typhoon events in the first random event set based on the increase and decrease number of typhoon events under different sea area levels and landing levels in the first random event set and the alternative random event set to obtain a target random event set.

9. A computer device, characterized in that: include: A memory and a processor, wherein the memory and the processor are communicatively connected to each other, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 by executing the computer instructions.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, and the computer instructions are used to enable a computer to execute the method for generating a typhoon event set based on climate change according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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