Dynamic analysis method for economic benefits of regional electricity market

Abstract

The invention provides a regional electricity market economic benefit dynamic analysis method, and belongs to the technical field of electricity market economic benefit evaluation. And calculating the comprehensive market economic benefit of each region by calculating the dynamic and static weights and the dynamic and static positive and negative difference degrees of the regional power market. The method has the capability of realizing regional power market economic benefit dynamic analysis at different times, and solves the problem that the regional power market economic benefit index value is difficult to calculate when being equal to the positive and negative difference degree values by considering the trend change problem of the data sequence.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power market economic benefit evaluation, and specifically relates to a method for dynamic analysis of regional power market economic benefits. Background Art

[0002] The country's call to accelerate the construction of a unified national electricity market system aims to optimize the allocation of electricity resources through market-based means, improve the stability and flexible adjustment capabilities of the power system, and promote the construction of a new power system that is suitable for China's national conditions and has stronger new energy absorption capabilities. Economic benefit analysis helps to evaluate the effect of power market system reform on the transformation of energy structure, ensure the effective implementation of policies, and provide data support for policy adjustments. It can clarify the positive impact of power market reform on improving resource allocation efficiency, reducing energy costs, and promoting the development of new energy, and provide a decision-making basis for achieving clean and low-carbon energy transformation.

[0003] Patent document CN114372658A discloses a method for fusion of massive data of electricity consumption habits based on the entropy weight method improved by correlation function, which effectively combines the economic benefits of the power market with the characteristic data of electricity consumption. Patent document CN112183855A constructs the SCUC model of safety-constrained unit combination and the SCED model of safety-constrained economic dispatch based on unit data, system data and operation boundary data, solves the SCUC model and the SCED model, obtains the unit start-stop combination, unit output curve and Lagrange multiplier, breaks down the barriers between regions, realizes the optimal configuration of power resources and creates economic benefits of the power market. Patent document CN118798933A constructs a multi-market multi-level evaluation model, aggregates and processes the evaluation scheme results, and proposes a panoramic evaluation and analysis method and system for the operation of a multi-power market. Patent document CN118586690A obtains the power supply stability influencing factors and the power consumption stability influencing factors of the power market by collecting the power supply evaluation index and the power consumption evaluation index and other power market supply and demand evaluation feature vectors. Patent document CN118735257A established a comprehensive evaluation and analysis model for market risk and market operation compliance, and built a compliance and risk management information sharing platform, proposing a management method that combines power market operation risk with compliance analysis. The existing results of power market economic benefit analysis have done a lot of work in terms of indicator construction, evaluation model construction, platform construction, etc., but the dynamic analysis of power market economic benefits over time needs further research. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the shortcomings of the existing methods, the present invention proposes a dynamic analysis method for the economic benefits of a regional electricity market, which conducts a dynamic and comprehensive analysis of the economic benefits of a regional electricity market from multiple time perspectives.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0006] A method for dynamic analysis of economic benefits of regional power market includes the following steps:

[0007] Step 1: Obtain indicator data of economic benefits of power markets in each region;

[0008] Step 2: Calculate the static weight and dynamic weight of the economic benefit indicators of the power market at each time;

[0009] Step 3: Based on the static weight and dynamic weight calculated in step 2, the static positive and negative differences of the regional power market and the dynamic positive and negative differences of the regional power market are calculated respectively;

[0010] Step 4: Calculate the comprehensive score of economic benefits of each regional power market based on the static positive and negative differences of the regional power market and the dynamic positive and negative differences of the regional power market in step 3.

[0011] Furthermore, the indicators of economic benefits of the power market in each region include: the proportion of market-oriented electricity, the perfection of the market system, the efficiency of the power system, the degree of participation of new entities in the market and the activity of the power market. The calculation method of each indicator is as follows:

[0012] Market electricity consumption ratio = market-based electricity consumption in the region / total electricity consumption in the society;

[0013] Market system perfection = comprehensive score of each market / 10;

[0014] Power system efficiency = 1-factory power consumption rate-line loss rate;

[0015] The degree of participation of new entities in the market = the amount of electricity consumed by various new entities in various markets / the total electricity consumption of various new entities in various market periods;

[0016] Electricity market activity = number of electricity members registered with the trading organization / number of all industrial and commercial users in the region.

[0017] Furthermore, the static weight calculation method of the power market economic benefit index is:

[0018]

[0019] Among them, w j (t) is the static weight of the jth power market economic benefit index at time t, j = 1, 2, ..., n, b ik (t) and b il (t) are the normalized scores of the kth and lth indicators of the ith regional power market at the tth time in the matrix B, respectively; and are the means of the kth and lth indicators at the tth time in the matrix B, respectively. The matrix B(t) = [b ij (t)] m×n middle x ij (t) represents the economic benefit index data of the jth regional power market at the ith time, and m and n represent the total number of regional power markets and the total number of indicators, respectively.

[0020] Furthermore, the dynamic weight calculation method of the power market economic benefit index is:

[0021]

[0022] Among them, w′ j (t) represents the dynamic weight of the jth power market economic benefit index at time t, R′(t)={r′ ij (t)} represents the full-time dynamic indicator matrix, represents the jth indicator data of the power market in the ith region at time t, x′ ij (t) = x ij (t) - x ij (t―1) The offset matrix element of the indicator data matrix, defined as x′ ij (t=1)=x′ ij (t=0).

[0023] Furthermore, based on the static weight w of the power market economic benefit index j (t), the static positive difference measure of the regional power market at time t and static negative difference The calculation method is:

[0024]

[0025]

[0026] in, Indicates d ij The maximum value of the jth indicator at time t in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), Indicates d ij The minimum value of the jth indicator at time t in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), d ij (t) = b ij (t)w j (t);

[0027] Based on the dynamic weight w′ of economic benefit index in power market j (t), dynamic positive difference measure of regional power market at time t (t) and dynamic negative difference The calculation is as follows:

[0028]

[0029] in, Represents d′ ij The maximum value of the jth indicator offset at the tth time in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), Represents d′ ij The minimum offset value of the jth indicator at time t in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), d′ ij (t) = r′ ij (t)w′ j (t).

[0030] Furthermore, the method for calculating the comprehensive market economic benefits of each region is as follows:

[0031]

[0032] f i (t) = αc i (t)+βc′ i (t)

[0033] Among them, α, β∈[0,1], α+β=1, respectively represent the static and dynamic factor coefficients, α=0.6, β=0.4, f i (t) is the economic benefit of the electricity market in the ith region at time t, z i (t), z′ i (t), c i (t) and c′ i (t) are the calculated process variables, represents the tth time z i The maximum value of (t).

[0034] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0035] 1) From multiple time scales, based on national policies and the actual conditions of each region, a regional power market economic benefit index system is proposed, and the calculation method of each index is given;

[0036] 2) According to the different characteristics of dynamic and static indicators of power market economic benefits, a corresponding indicator weight calculation method is proposed;

[0037] 3) A method for calculating the positive and negative differences in each regional power market is proposed to calculate the comprehensive market economic benefits. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0038] Figure 1It is a line chart of the comprehensive ranking of each region at each time according to the embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0039] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0040] Example

[0041] See also Figure 1 , the dynamic analysis method of economic benefits of the regional power market specifically includes the following steps:

[0042] 1) Obtain indicator data of power markets in various regions.

[0043] Specifically, the indicators of economic benefits of the power market in each region include: the proportion of market-oriented electricity, the perfection of the market system, the efficiency of the power system, the degree of participation of new entities in the market and the activity of the power market. The calculation method of each indicator is as follows:

[0044] Market electricity share = market-based electricity consumption in the region / total electricity consumption in the society, used to calculate the maturity of the electricity market;

[0045] Market system perfection = comprehensive score of each market / 10, where the comprehensive score includes the medium- and long-term market, spot market, ancillary service market, green electricity trading market and retail package market, with 2 points for each market, which is used to calculate the degree of market construction;

[0046] Power system efficiency = 1-factory power consumption rate-line loss rate, reflecting the power system's power generation and transmission and distribution efficiency;

[0047] The degree of market participation of new entities = the amount of electricity consumed by various new entities in various markets / the total electricity consumption of various new entities in various market periods, which is used to calculate the market participation of new entities;

[0048] Electricity market activity = number of electricity members registered with the trading institution / number of all industrial and commercial users in the region, used to reflect the market activity.

[0049] By calculating the above indicators in different regions, the following indicator data sets are obtained:

[0050] X(t) = [x ij (t)] m×n (1)

[0051] In this embodiment, t = 1, 2, ..., v; i = 1, 2, ..., m; j = 1, 2, ..., n; the matrix element x ij (t) represents the data value of the jth indicator in the ith regional power market at the tth time, and v, m, and n represent the time, regional power market, and the total number of indicators, respectively.

[0052] The data of each indicator at each time are shown in Table 1 below.

[0053] Table 1 Initial values ​​of indicator data

[0054]

[0055] Table 1 Initial values ​​of indicator data

[0056]

[0057] 2) Calculate the static weights of economic benefit indicators of the power market in each region.

[0058] Specifically, the static weight calculation formula for the jth power market economic benefit index at time t is:

[0059]

[0060] In this embodiment, w j (t) represents the dynamic weight of the jth power market economic benefit index at time t, j = 1, 2, ..., n, b ik (t) and b il (t) are the normalized scores of the kth and lth indicators of the ith regional power market at the tth time in the matrix B, respectively; and are the means of the kth and lth indicators at the tth time in matrix B. Matrix B(t) = [b ij (t)] m×n middle x ij (t) represents the economic benefit index data of the jth regional power market at the ith time, and m and n represent the total number of regional power markets and the total number of indicators, respectively.

[0061] The weight is determined by calculating the connection between each indicator. If the connection between an indicator and other indicators is greater, the possibility of its substitution is greater, and it should be given a smaller weight. It can reflect the relative importance of any two indicators separately while controlling other indicators, and can more truly reflect the substitution relationship between indicators.

[0062] The results are shown in Table 2.

[0063] Table 2 Static weights of indicators at different times

[0064]

[0065] 3) Calculate the dynamic weights of economic benefit indicators of each regional electricity market.

[0066] Specifically, the dynamic weight calculation formula for the jth power market economic benefit index at time t is:

[0067]

[0068] Among them, w′(t) represents the dynamic weight of the jth power market economic benefit index at time t, R′(t)={r′ ij (t)} represents the full-time dynamic indicator matrix, represents the jth indicator data of the power market in the ith region at time t, x′ ij (t) = x ij (t) - x ij (t―1) represents the offset matrix element of the indicator data matrix, and defines x′ ij (t=1)=x′ ij (t=0).

[0069] The degree of change of dynamic deviation reflects the increase or decrease of the same indicator at different times. If the increase or decrease is large, it means that the changes in the power markets of various regions within the indicator are relatively different. The more information it contains, the greater the weight should be given. The entropy weight method determines the weight according to the entropy value of the indicator. The larger the entropy value, the smaller the difference within the indicator, and the smaller the weight should be given. The smaller the entropy value, the greater the difference within the indicator, and the greater the weight should be given. The entropy weight method is applicable to the calculation of the weight of dynamic deviation memory indicators.

[0070] The results are shown in Table 3.

[0071] Table 3 Dynamic weights of indicators at different times

[0072]

[0073] 4) Calculate the positive and negative difference of the indicator difference.

[0074] Indicator differences include static differences and dynamic differences.

[0075] Based on the static weight w of economic benefit index of power market j (t), calculate the static positive difference degree of the regional power market at time t and static negative difference

[0076]

[0077]

[0078] in, Indicates d ij The maximum value of the jth indicator at time t in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), Indicates d ij The minimum value of the jth indicator at time t in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), d ij (t) = b ij (t)w j (t).

[0079] Based on the dynamic weight w′ of economic benefit index in power market j (t), calculate the dynamic positive difference degree of the regional power market at time t and dynamic negative difference The formula is as follows:

[0080]

[0081] in, Represents d′ ij The maximum value of the jth indicator offset at the tth time in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), Represents d′ ij The minimum offset value of the kth indicator at the tth time in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), d′ ij (t) = r′ ij (t)w′ j (t).

[0082] The present invention solves the problem of difficulty in calculation when the regional power market economic benefit index value is equal to the positive and negative difference values ​​by considering the trend change problem of the data sequence. The calculation results are shown in the following table.

[0083] Table 4 The gap between static and dynamic indicators and positive and negative ideal solutions

[0084]

[0085] Table 4 The gap between static and dynamic indicators and positive and negative ideal solutions

[0086]

[0087] 5) Calculate the market economic benefits of each region.

[0088] Based on the four indicators of static positive and negative difference and dynamic positive and negative difference, the comprehensive score of market economic benefits of each region is calculated:

[0089]

[0090] f i(t) = αc i (t)+βc′ i (t) (11)

[0091] Among them, α, β∈[0,1], α+β=1, respectively represent the static and dynamic factor coefficients, α=0.6, β=0.4, f i (t) is the economic benefit of the electricity market in the ith region at time t. i (t), z′ i (t), c i (t) and c′ i (t) are the calculated process variables, represents the tth time z i The maximum value of (t).

[0092] The results are shown in Table 5.

[0093] Table 5 Comprehensive scores of market economic benefits in different regions at different times

[0094] Object 2023.07.01 2024.01.01 2024.07.01 Region 1 0.698 0.4 0.414 Area 2 0.1 0.278 0.154 Area 3 0.959 0.964 0.947 Region 4 0.059 0.578 0.057 Area 5 0.839 0.997 0.712 Area 6 0.57 0.115 0.614 Area 7 0.329 0.787 0.793 Area 8 0.974 0.1 0.673 Discrimination 0.188 0.175 0.179 Stability 0.318 0.32 0.317

[0095] According to the comprehensive evaluation results, the ranking of each regional power market is obtained by sorting from large to small. The comprehensive ranking of each region at each time is as follows: Figure 1 The ranking order of Region 1 is relatively stable, ranking 4th, 5th, and 3rd in three periods of time, while the ranking of Region 8 varies greatly, ranking 1st, 4th, and 8th in three periods of time.

[0096] The dynamic analysis capability of the analysis method at different times was verified through examples, and useful conclusions were drawn, which provided an effective method for analyzing the economic benefits of the power market.

[0097] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, which are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention rather than to limit it. Any modification, improvement, other modification or equivalent replacement made to the technical solution of the present invention by ordinary technicians in this field, as long as they do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solution of the present invention, should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic analysis of economic benefits of regional power market, characterized by: The steps include: Step 1: Obtain indicator data of economic benefits of power markets in each region; Step 2: Calculate the static weight and dynamic weight of the economic benefit indicators of the power market at each time; Step 3: Based on the static weight and dynamic weight calculated in step 2, the static positive and negative differences of the regional power market and the dynamic positive and negative differences of the regional power market are calculated respectively; Step 4: Calculate the comprehensive score of economic benefits of each regional power market based on the static positive and negative differences of the regional power market and the dynamic positive and negative differences of the regional power market in step 3.

2. The method for dynamic analysis of regional power market economic benefits according to claim 1 is characterized by: The indicators of economic benefits of the power market in each region include: the proportion of market-based electricity, the perfection of the market system, the efficiency of the power system, the degree of participation of new entities in the market and the activity of the power market. The calculation methods of each indicator are as follows: Market electricity consumption ratio = market-based electricity consumption in the region / total electricity consumption in the society; Market system perfection = comprehensive score of each market / 10; Power system efficiency = 1-factory power consumption rate-line loss rate; The degree of participation of new entities in the market = the amount of electricity consumed by various new entities in various markets / the total electricity consumption of various new entities in various market periods; Electricity market activity = number of electricity members registered with the trading organization / number of all industrial and commercial users in the region.

3. The method for dynamic analysis of regional power market economic benefits according to claim 2 is characterized by: The static weight calculation method of the power market economic benefit index is: Among them, w j (t) is the static weight of the jth power market economic benefit index at time t, j = 1, 2, ..., n, b ik (t) and b il (t) are the normalized scores of the kth and lth indicators of the ith regional power market at the tth time in the matrix B, respectively; and are the means of the kth and lth indicators at the tth time in the matrix B, respectively. The matrix B(t) = [b ij (t)] m×n middle x ij (t) represents the economic benefit index data of the jth regional power market at the ith time, and m and n represent the total number of regional power markets and the total number of indicators, respectively.

4. The method for dynamic analysis of regional power market economic benefits according to claim 3 is characterized by: The dynamic weight calculation method of the power market economic benefit index is as follows: Among them, w′ j (t) represents the dynamic weight of the jth power market economic benefit index at time t, R′(t)={r′ ij (t)} represents the full-time dynamic indicator matrix, represents the jth indicator data of the power market in the ith region at time t, x′ ij (t) = x ij (t) - x ij (t―1) The offset matrix element of the indicator data matrix, defined as x′ ij (t=1)=x′ ij (t=0).

5. The method for dynamic analysis of regional power market economic benefits according to claim 4 is characterized by: Based on the static weight w of economic benefit index of power market j (t), the static positive difference measure of the regional power market at time t and static negative difference The calculation method is: in, Indicates d ij (t)(i=1,2,…,m) the maximum value of the jth indicator at the tth time, Indicates d ij The minimum value of the jth indicator at time t in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), d ij (t) = b ij (t)w j (t); Based on the dynamic weight w′ of economic benefit index in power market j (t), dynamic positive difference measure of regional power market at time t and dynamic negative difference The calculation is as follows: in, Denotes d′ ij The maximum value of the jth indicator offset at the tth time in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), Denotes d′ ij The minimum offset value of the jth indicator at time t in (t)(i=1,2,…,m), d′ ij (t) = r′ ij (t)w′ j (t).

6. The method for dynamic analysis of regional power market economic benefits according to claim 5 is characterized by: The comprehensive score of market economic benefits of each region is calculated as follows: f i (t)=αc i (t)+βc′ i (t) Among them, α, β∈[0,1], α+β=1, respectively represent the static and dynamic factor coefficients, α=0.6, β=0.4, f i (t) is the economic benefit of the electricity market in the ith region at time t, z i (t), z′ i (t), c i (t) and c′ i (t) are the calculated process variables, represents the tth time z i The maximum value of (t).

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