A method and system for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled

Abstract

The present application belongs to the technical field of geological research, and discloses a method and system for determining the exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap, wherein the method comprises determining an oil source coefficient, a reservoir coefficient, a cap rock coefficient and a trap coefficient; and the exploration success rate of the to-be-drilled trap is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient. The present application is based on the accumulation elements such as source rock, reservoir, cap rock and trap, and comprehensively evaluates and quickly calculates the exploration success rate of the to-be-drilled trap which approximates to the real situation underground, so as to improve the accuracy of the risk assessment of the to-be-drilled trap and the effectiveness of the exploration deployment scheme, and provide a scientific and effective method and system framework for the calculation process of the exploration success rate of the to-be-drilled trap.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The application belongs to the technical field of geological research, and particularly relates to a method and system for determining the exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap. BACKGROUND

[0002] The exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap is a direct parameter for predicting the exploration risk of a trap and determining whether the to-be-drilled trap is worth drilling. The exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap refers to the probability of obtaining an oil and gas discovery predicted by a comprehensive evaluation method or an expert scoring method before actual drilling. How to obtain the exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap has become the biggest bottleneck restricting the accuracy of trap queuing and exploration risk assessment.

[0003] At present, most researchers usually directly assign the exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap by personal experience or an expert scoring method when predicting the exploration risk of a trap, or ignore the influence of the parameter on trap queuing or risk assessment. Thus, the exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap predicted in this way cannot truly reflect the actual drilling risk of the to-be-drilled trap, and there is a significant error between the prediction result before drilling and the actual result after drilling, which directly affects the evaluation of the exploration potential of the to-be-drilled trap and the deployment scheme of exploration. SUMMARY

[0004] To solve at least one problem in the background art, the application provides a method and system for determining the exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the application adopts the following technical scheme.

[0006] A method for determining the exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap comprises the following steps.

[0007] Determine the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient.

[0008] Calculate the exploration success rate of the to-be-drilled trap based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient.

[0009] Preferably, the oil source coefficient is determined by:

[0010] O = O ex *O ef ;

[0011] In the formula, O is the oil source coefficient, representing the probability that the to-be-drilled trap has favorable oil source conditions; O ex is the oil source existence, representing the probability that the basin or zone where the to-be-drilled trap is located has hydrocarbon source rocks; O ef is the oil source effectiveness, representing the probability that the location where the to-be-drilled trap is located has effective hydrocarbon supply capacity.

[0012] Preferably:

[0013] Oex =H o / H omax ;

[0014] H o is the thickness of mudstone in the potential hydrocarbon source rock interval, H omax is the thickness of strata in the potential hydrocarbon source rock interval;

[0015] ;

[0016] L oc represents the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the to-be-drilled trap; L ot represents the distance between the to-be-drilled trap on the line connecting the hydrocarbon supply center and the to-be-drilled trap and the edge of the hydrocarbon supply.

[0017] Preferably, the reservoir coefficient is determined, comprising:

[0018] R=R ex *R ef ;

[0019] R is the reservoir coefficient, representing the probability that the to-be-drilled trap has favorable reservoir conditions; R ex is the reservoir existence, representing the probability that the location of the to-be-drilled trap exists a reservoir facies belt; R ef is the reservoir effectiveness, representing the probability that the reservoir at the location of the to-be-drilled trap has effective reservoir capacity.

[0020] Preferably:

[0021] ;

[0022] L r is the maximum reservoir facies belt length within the known reservoir facies belt range; L rt is the minimum distance between the location of the to-be-drilled trap and the edge of the reservoir facies belt; when L r ≥ L ex , R ef =0;

[0023] R r =min{H rmax / H r , P rmax / P r , K rmax / K r};

[0024] H rmax is the reservoir thickness at the location of the to-be-drilled trap; H r is the maximum reservoir thickness of the reservoir facies belt where the to-be-drilled trap is located; P rmaxK is the maximum porosity of the reservoir where the to-be-drilled trap is located. r K is the reservoir permeability of the to-be-drilled trap location. rmax K is the maximum permeability of the reservoir where the to-be-drilled trap is located.

[0025] Preferably, the caprock coefficient is determined, comprising:

[0026] C=C ex *C ef ;

[0027] In the formula, C is a caprock coefficient, representing the probability that the to-be-drilled trap has favorable caprock conditions; C ex K is the caprock existence, representing the probability that the caprock exists at the location where the to-be-drilled trap is located; C ef K is the caprock effectiveness, representing the probability that the caprock at the location where the to-be-drilled trap is located has effective sealing ability.

[0028] Preferably:

[0029]

[0030] In the formula, L c K is the maximum caprock facies belt length within the known caprock facies belt range; L cc K is the minimum distance between the location where the to-be-drilled trap is located and the edge of the caprock facies belt;

[0031] C ef =min{H c / H cmax ,P cmin / P c ,K cmin / K c};

[0032] In the formula, H c K is the caprock thickness of the to-be-drilled trap location; H cmax K is the maximum caprock thickness of the caprock facies belt where the to-be-drilled trap is located; P c K is the caprock porosity of the to-be-drilled trap location; P cmin K is the minimum caprock porosity of the caprock facies belt where the to-be-drilled trap is located; K c K is the caprock permeability of the to-be-drilled trap location; K cmin K is the minimum caprock permeability of the caprock facies belt where the to-be-drilled trap is located.

[0033] Preferably, the trap coefficient is determined, comprising:

[0034] T= T ex * T ef ;

[0035] In the formula, T is a trap coefficient, representing the probability that the to-be-drilled trap has favorable trap conditions; Tex is the existence of the trap, indicating the probability of the existence of the trap at the location to be drilled; T ef is the effectiveness of the trap, indicating the probability of the effectiveness of the trap at the location to be drilled.

[0036] Preferably:

[0037] ;

[0038] In the formula, X1 is the minimum spacing of the two-dimensional seismic line in the main line direction, and X2 is the minimum spacing of the two-dimensional seismic line in the connecting line direction;

[0039] T ef = min{H t / H tmax , 1 / (N t +1)};

[0040] In the formula, H t is the lateral butt-joint sealing layer thickness of the location to be drilled, H tmax is the closure height of the trap to be drilled, N t is the number of faulted layers controlling the trap to be drilled, N t ≥ 0, and N t = 0 for the anticline trap.

[0041] Preferably, the drilling trap exploration success rate is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient, and includes:

[0042] S = 25*(O + R + C + T);

[0043] In the formula, S is the drilling trap exploration success rate, O is the oil source coefficient, R is the reservoir coefficient, C is the cap rock coefficient, and T is the trap coefficient.

[0044] A drilling trap exploration success rate determination system includes:

[0045] A first calculation unit is configured to determine the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient;

[0046] A second calculation unit is configured to calculate the drilling trap exploration success rate based on the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient.

[0047] The present application has the following advantages:

[0048] The present application is based on the hydrocarbon source rock, the reservoir, the cap rock, the trap and other factors, and comprehensively evaluates and quickly calculates the drilling trap exploration success rate close to the real situation underground, improves the accuracy of the drilling trap risk assessment, improves the effectiveness of the exploration deployment scheme, and provides a scientific and effective method and system framework for the calculation process of the drilling trap exploration success rate.

[0049] Other features and advantages of the present application will be set forth in the description that follows, and in part will be apparent from the description, or can be learned by practice of the application. The purposes and other advantages of the present application will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof as well as the appended drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0050] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application or the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments or the prior art description will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present application, and those skilled in the art can also obtain other drawings according to these drawings without any creative effort.

[0051] Figure 1 is the implementation flowchart of the method for determining the exploration success rate (S) of the to-be-drilled trap of the present application;

[0052] Figure 2 is the schematic diagram of the method for determining the oil source coefficient (O) of the present application;

[0053] Figure 3 is the schematic diagram of the method for determining the reservoir coefficient (R) of the present application;

[0054] Figure 4 is the schematic diagram of the method for determining the caprock coefficient (C) of the present application;

[0055] Figure 5 is the schematic diagram of the method for determining the trap coefficient (T) of the present application.

[0056] Figure 6 is the schematic diagram of the quantitative chart (ORCT chart) of the exploration success rate (S) of the to-be-drilled trap of the present application;

[0057] Figure 7 is the system structure diagram for determining the exploration success rate (S) of the to-be-drilled trap provided by the embodiments of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be described clearly and completely below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present application, but not all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without any creative effort are within the protection scope of the present application.

[0059] A method for determining the exploration success rate of a to-be-drilled trap, as shown in Figure 1 , includes the following steps:

[0060] S1: Determine the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient, and trap coefficient;

[0061] S2: Calculate the success rate of exploration of the trap to be drilled based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient and trap coefficient.

[0062] It should be noted that the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient, and trap coefficient in this invention all need to be calculated, and the calculation process is not sequential. The specific calculation process is explained below:

[0063] In S1, the magnitude of the oil source coefficient depends on the presence of an oil source (O). ex ) and oil source effectiveness (O ef Therefore, when determining the oil source coefficient, the relationship between the existence and effectiveness of the oil source is as shown in equation (1):

[0064] O=O ex *O ef (1)

[0065] In the formula, O is the oil source coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable oil source conditions; O ex O represents the probability that source rocks exist in the basin or zone where the trap to be drilled is located; ef Oil source effectiveness represents the probability that the location of the trap to be drilled has effective hydrocarbon supply capacity.

[0066] Furthermore:

[0067] O ex =H o / H omax (2)

[0068] In the formula, H o H represents the mudstone thickness of the potential source rock strata. omax The stratigraphic thickness of the potential source rock section;

[0069] (3)

[0070] In the formula, L oc Indicates the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the drilling trap; L ot This indicates the distance between the edge of the hydrocarbon supply loop and the edge of the hydrocarbon supply loop on the line connecting the hydrocarbon supply center and the loop to be drilled.

[0071] like Figure 2 As shown in the figure, in this embodiment, the ellipse represents the known hydrocarbon supply range of the source rock, with the supply center at the center of the ellipse, and A represents the trap to be drilled. Additionally, from... Figure 2 From this, we can see that H omax Including the entire thickness of mudstone and sandstone, H oThe mudstone thickness is H. Based on the well logging and drilling data of the area where the trap A is located, the mudstone thickness H of the potential source rock section is... o The potential source rock strata thickness H is 65m. omax Then O ex = H o / H omax =65m / 85m=0.76. After consulting the known source rock hydrocarbon supply range map, the target trap A in this example is located outside the known source rock hydrocarbon supply range. The distance L between the hydrocarbon supply center and the target trap A is... oc The minimum distance L between the location of the drilling trap A and the edge of the hydrocarbon supply zone is 10 km. ot It is 5 km, therefore O ef =(L oc -L ot ) / L oc =1- L ot / L oc =0.5. Oil source coefficient O =O ex * O ef =0.76*0.5 =0.38.

[0072] Furthermore, the magnitude of the reservoir coefficient depends on two parameters: reservoir existence (Rex) and reservoir effectiveness (Ref). The formula (4) for calculating the reservoir coefficient is as follows:

[0073] R=R ex *R ef (4)

[0074] In the formula, R is the reservoir coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable reservoir conditions; R ex R represents the probability that a reservoir exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; ef Reservoir effectiveness represents the probability that the reservoir at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective storage capacity.

[0075] Furthermore:

[0076] (5)

[0077] In the formula, L r Lrt is the maximum length of the reservoir facies zone within the known reservoir facies zone range; Lrt is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the reservoir facies zone.

[0078] R ef =min{H r / H rmax , P r / P rmax , K r / K rmax};(6)

[0079] In the formula, H r H represents the reservoir thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax Maximum reservoir thickness in the reservoir facies zone where the drilled trap is located; P r P represents the reservoir porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax K represents the maximum porosity of the reservoir in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located. r K represents the reservoir permeability at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax This represents the maximum permeability of the reservoir in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located.

[0080] like Figure 3 As shown in the example, after consulting the reservoir facies zone map of the area where the research example is located, the trap A to be drilled is located outside the known reservoir facies zone range, and the maximum reservoir facies zone length L within the known reservoir facies zone range is... r The minimum distance L between the location of the drilled trap A and the edge of the reservoir facies zone is 10 km. rt The distance is 2 km, and the condition that the trap to be drilled is located outside the known reservoir facies zone and L meets the following requirements: rt <L r Therefore R ex =(L r -L rt ) / L r =1-L rt / L r =1-2 / 10=0.8. By reviewing the reservoir thickness distribution curve, porosity distribution curve, and permeability distribution curve of the area where the research example is located, it can be determined that the reservoir thickness H at location A of the trap to be drilled is... r The maximum reservoir thickness H in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located is 22m. rmax The reservoir porosity P at location A, where the drilling loop is to be closed, is 45m. r The maximum porosity P of the reservoir in the reservoir facies zone where the drilling trap is located is 0.29. rmax The reservoir permeability K at location A of the drilling loop is 0.44. r The maximum permeability K of the reservoir in the reservoir facies zone where the drilling trap is located is 0.31 md. rmax The value is 0.41md, therefore R ef = min{22 / 45, 0.29 / 0.44, 0.31 / 0.44} = min{0.49, 0.66, 0.76}, therefore R ef =0.49. Reservoir coefficient R=R ex * R ef =0.8 * 0.49 = 0.4.

[0081] Furthermore, the magnitude of the cap layer coefficient depends on the presence of the cap layer (C). ex) and cap layer effectiveness (C ef Two parameters determine the cap layer coefficient, including:

[0082] C=C ex *C ef ;

[0083] In the formula, C is the caprock coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable caprock conditions; C ex C represents the probability that a caprock exists at the location of the drilled trap; ef Cap layer effectiveness represents the probability that the cap layer at the location of the tunnel to be drilled has the ability to effectively seal the area.

[0084] Furthermore:

[0085]

[0086] In the formula, L c L represents the maximum length of the caprock facies zone within the known caprock facies zone range. cc This is the minimum distance between the location of the tunnel to be drilled and the edge of the caprock phase zone.

[0087] C ef =min{H c / H cmax ,P cmin / P c ,K cmin / K c};

[0088] In the formula, H c H represents the thickness of the caprock at the location to be drilled; cmax P represents the maximum thickness of the caprock in the caprock facies zone where the drilled trap is located. c P represents the porosity of the caprock at the location to be drilled. cmin K represents the minimum porosity of the caprock in the facies zone where the drilled trap is located. c K represents the permeability of the caprock at the location of the drilling trap. cmin The minimum permeability of the caprock in the caprock facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located.

[0089] like Figure 4 As shown, in this example, after consulting the caprock facies map of the area where the research example is located, the trap A to be drilled is located outside the known caprock facies zone. The maximum caprock facies zone length L within the known caprock facies zone is... c The minimum distance L between the location of the drilling trap A and the edge of the caprock facies zone is 11 km. cc The depth is 2.5 km, and the condition that the trap to be drilled is located outside the known reservoir facies zone and L cc <L c Therefore, C ex =(Lc -L cc ) / L c =1-L cc / L c =1-2.5 / 11=0.77. After reviewing the caprock thickness curve, porosity curve, and permeability curve of the area where the research example is located, the caprock thickness H at the location of the drilling trap A is... c The maximum thickness H of the caprock in the facies zone where the drilling trap is located is 45 m. cmax The porosity P of the caprock at position A of the drilling ring is 45 m. c The minimum porosity P of the caprock facies zone where the drilling loop is located is 0.09. cmin The permeability K of the caprock at location A of the drilling loop is 0.05. c The minimum permeability K of the caprock facies zone where the drilling trap is located is 0.1 md. cmin It is 0.07md. Therefore, C ef =min{H c / H cmax , P cmin / P c , K cmin / K c}=min{45 / 45, 0.05 / 0.09, 0.07 / 0.1}=min{1, 0.56, 0.7}, therefore C ef =0.56. Cap layer coefficient C = C ex * C ef =0.77*0.56=0.43.

[0090] Further, determining the closure coefficient includes:

[0091] T = T ex * T ef ;

[0092] In the formula, T is the trap coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable trap conditions; T ex T represents the probability that a trap exists at the location of the target trap; ef Trap validity represents the probability that the trap at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective trapping capability.

[0093] Furthermore:

[0094] ;

[0095] In the formula, X1 is the minimum spacing of two-dimensional seismic survey lines in the main survey line direction, and X2 is the minimum spacing of two-dimensional seismic survey lines in the connecting survey line direction.

[0096] T ef=min{H t / H tmax ,1 / (N t +1)};

[0097] In the formula, H t H represents the thickness of the lateral butt sealing layer at the location to be drilled. tmax The closing height of the drill loop, N t The number of faults in the control trap to be drilled is Nt≥0, and for anticline traps Nt=0.

[0098] like Figure 5 As shown, in this example, after reviewing the seismic data of the area where the study is located, the drilled trap A is within the 2D seismic coverage area. The minimum spacing X1 of the 2D seismic survey lines in the main survey line direction is 1 km, and the minimum spacing X2 of the 2D seismic survey lines in the connecting survey line direction is 1.2 km. Therefore, T ex =min{1 / X1, 1 / X2}= min{1 / 1, 1 / 1.2}= min{1, 0.83}, therefore T ex =0.83. After reviewing the trap map and the lateral connection details on the reservoir inversion profile, the thickness H of the lateral connection sealing layer at location A of the trap to be drilled is determined. t The closure height H of the drill loop A is 23 m. tmax The length is 49m, and the number of faults N in the control trap to be drilled is... t If there is 1, then T ef =min{H t / H tmax , 1 / (N t +1)}=min{23 / 49, 1 / (1+1)}= min{0.47, 0.5}, so T ef =0.47. Trap coefficient T = T ex * T ef =0.24.

[0099] Furthermore, the success rate of exploration of the target trap is calculated based on the source oil coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient, and trap coefficient, including:

[0100] S = 25 * (O + R + C + T);

[0101] In the formula, S is the success rate of exploration of the trap to be drilled; O is the oil source coefficient; R is the reservoir coefficient; C is the caprock coefficient; and T is the trap coefficient.

[0102] like Figure 6As shown, in the present embodiment, an exploration success rate quantification chart (ORCT chart) of a to-be-drilled trap is established. The X axis of the quantification chart is an existence axis, and the Y axis is an effectiveness axis. The X axis and the Y axis are each divided into 10 equal parts. The 5th equal part of the X axis and the 5th equal part of the Y axis are the intersection 0 point. The values of the X axis to the left and to the right are 0-5, respectively. The values of the Y axis upward and downward are 0-5, respectively. This is equivalent to dividing the exploration success rate quantification chart of the to-be-drilled trap into four regions, with the area of each region being 25, and the total area being 100. The upper right corner region is an oil source coefficient (O) region, in which the value of the X axis is O ex * 5, and the value of the Y axis is O ef * 5. Therefore, the area of the O region is O ex * O ef *25. The upper left corner region is a reservoir coefficient (R) region, in which the value of the X axis is R ex * 5, and the value of the Y axis is R ef * 5. Therefore, the area of the R region is R ex * R ef *25. The lower left corner region is a cap rock coefficient (C) region, in which the value of the X axis is C ex * 5, and the value of the Y axis is C ef * 5. Therefore, the area of the C region is C ex * C ef *25. The lower right corner region is a trap coefficient (T) region, in which the value of the X axis is T ex * 5, and the value of the Y axis is T ef * 5. Therefore, the area of the T region is T ex * T ef *25. The exploration success rate S of the to-be-drilled trap is represented by the sum of the areas of the oil source coefficient region, the reservoir coefficient region, the cap rock coefficient region, and the trap coefficient region, i.e., S= (O ex * O ef *25+ R ex * R ef *25+ C ex * C ef *25+ T ex * T ef *25) / 100=25* (O ex * O ef +R ex * R ef + C ex * C ef + T ex * T ef )=25*(O+R+C+T). In the present embodiment, the exploration success rate S of the to-be-drilled trap A is represented by the sum of the areas of the oil source coefficient region, the reservoir coefficient region, the cap rock coefficient region, and the trap coefficient region, i.e., S= (O ex * O ef *25+ Rex *R ef *25+ C ex * C ef *25+ T ex * T ef *25) / 100=25* (O ex * O ef + R ex * R ef + C ex * C ef + T ex * T ef )=25*(O+R+C+T)= 25*(0.38+0.4+0.43+0.24)=36.25( Figure 6 (The area of ​​the dark gray portion). Therefore, the success rate S of the exploration of the A-zone to be drilled is 36.25%.

[0103] A system for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration, such as Figure 7 As shown, it includes a first calculation unit and a second calculation unit, wherein the first calculation unit is used to determine the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient and trap coefficient; the second calculation unit is used to calculate the success rate of exploration of the trap to be drilled based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient and trap coefficient.

[0104] It should be noted that, for the system implementation, since it basically corresponds to the method implementation, the relevant parts can be referred to in the description of the method implementation. The various units and modules of the system for determining the success rate of drilling loop exploration are divided according to functional logic, but are not limited to the above division, as long as the corresponding functions can be achieved; in addition, the specific names of each unit are only for easy distinction and are not used to limit the scope of protection of this invention.

[0105] Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some of the technical features; and these modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining the success rate of exploration of a drilling trap, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Determine the source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient, and trap coefficient; the reservoir coefficient satisfies: R=R ex *R ef ; In the formula, R is the reservoir coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable reservoir conditions; R ex R represents the probability that a reservoir exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; ef Reservoir effectiveness represents the probability that the reservoir at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective storage capacity; ； In the formula, L r L is the maximum length of the reservoir facies zone within the known reservoir facies zone range. rt L is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the reservoir zone; when L rt ≥L r At that time, R ex =0; R ef =min{H r / H rmax , P r / P rmax , K r / K rmax }; In the formula, H r H represents the reservoir thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax P represents the maximum reservoir thickness in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located. r P represents the reservoir porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax K represents the maximum porosity of the reservoir in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located. r K represents the reservoir permeability at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax The maximum permeability of the reservoir in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located; The success rate of exploration of the target trap is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient, and trap coefficient.

2. The method for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration according to claim 1, characterized in that, Determining the oil source coefficient includes: O=O ex *O ef ; In the formula, O is the oil source coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable oil source conditions; O ex O represents the probability that source rocks exist in the basin or zone where the trap to be drilled is located; ef Oil source effectiveness represents the probability that the location of the trap to be drilled has effective hydrocarbon supply capacity.

3. The method for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration according to claim 2, characterized in that: O ex =H o / H omax ; In the formula, H o H represents the mudstone thickness of the potential source rock strata. omax The stratigraphic thickness of the potential source rock section; ; In the formula, L oc Indicates the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the drilling trap; L ot This indicates the distance between the edge of the hydrocarbon supply loop and the edge of the hydrocarbon supply loop on the line connecting the hydrocarbon supply center and the loop to be drilled.

4. The method for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration according to claim 1, characterized in that, Determining the cap layer coefficient includes: C=C ex *C ef ; In the formula, C is the caprock coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable caprock conditions; C ex C represents the probability that a caprock exists at the location of the drilled trap; ef Cap layer effectiveness represents the probability that the cap layer at the location of the tunnel to be drilled has the ability to effectively seal the area.

5. The method for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration according to claim 4, characterized in that: In the formula, L c L represents the maximum length of the caprock facies zone within the known caprock facies zone range. cc This is the minimum distance between the location of the tunnel to be drilled and the edge of the caprock phase zone. C ef =min{H c / H cmax ,P cmin / P c ,K cmin / K c }; In the formula, H c H represents the thickness of the caprock at the location to be drilled; cmax P represents the maximum thickness of the caprock in the caprock facies zone where the drilled trap is located. c P represents the porosity of the caprock at the location to be drilled. cmin K represents the minimum porosity of the caprock in the facies zone where the drilled trap is located. c K represents the permeability of the caprock at the location of the drilling trap. cmin The minimum permeability of the caprock in the caprock facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located.

6. The method for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration according to claim 1, characterized in that, Determining the closure coefficient includes: T= T ex * T ef ; In the formula, T is the trap coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable trap conditions; T ex T represents the probability that a trap exists at the location of the target trap; ef Trap validity represents the probability that the trap at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective trapping capability.

7. The method for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration according to claim 6, characterized in that: ； In the formula, X1 is the minimum spacing of two-dimensional seismic survey lines in the main survey line direction, and X2 is the minimum spacing of two-dimensional seismic survey lines in the connecting survey line direction. T ef =min{H t / H tmax ,1 / (N t +1)}; In the formula, H t H represents the thickness of the lateral butt sealing layer at the location to be drilled. tmax N represents the closure height of the drill loop. t N represents the number of faults in the control trap to be drilled. t ≥0, N of the anticline trap t =0.

8. A method for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration according to any one of claims 1-7, characterized in that, The success rate of exploration of the target trap is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient, and trap coefficient, including: S = 25 * (O + R + C + T); In the formula, S is the success rate of exploration of the trap to be drilled; O is the oil source coefficient; R is the reservoir coefficient; C is the caprock coefficient; and T is the trap coefficient.

9. A system for determining the success rate of drilling trap exploration, characterized in that, include: The first calculation unit is used to determine the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient, and trap coefficient; the reservoir coefficient satisfies: R=R ex *R ef ; In the formula, R is the reservoir coefficient, representing the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable reservoir conditions; R ex R represents the probability that a reservoir exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; ef Reservoir effectiveness represents the probability that the reservoir at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective storage capacity; ； In the formula, L r L is the maximum length of the reservoir facies zone within the known reservoir facies zone range. rt L is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the reservoir zone; when L rt ≥L r At that time, R ex =0; R ef =min{H r / H rmax , P r / P rmax , K r / K rmax }; In the formula, H r H represents the reservoir thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax P represents the maximum reservoir thickness in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located. r P represents the reservoir porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax K represents the maximum porosity of the reservoir in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located. r K represents the reservoir permeability at the location of the trap to be drilled. rmax The maximum permeability of the reservoir in the reservoir facies zone where the trap to be drilled is located; The second calculation unit is used to calculate the success rate of exploration of the trap to be drilled based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, caprock coefficient, and trap coefficient.

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