Earth-rock dam breach peak flow prediction method and storage medium
By constructing a method for predicting peak outburst flow of earth-rock dams, and utilizing database and parameter analysis, the problem of existing models failing to consider dam type differences is solved, and high-precision outburst flow prediction for different earth-rock dam types is achieved.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411682625.0
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Patents(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-11-22
- Publication Date
- 2025-11-11
- Estimated Expiration
- 2044-11-22
AI Technical Summary
Existing peak discharge prediction models for earth-rock dams fail to adequately consider the differences in dam types, resulting in insufficient accuracy of prediction results. In particular, there are few application cases of models for core wall dams and face panel dams, and existing models have significant errors in prediction results for different dam types.
A method for predicting peak discharge of earth-rock dams based on erosion characteristics was established. By constructing a database containing 295 cases and conducting statistical analysis, parameters such as reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach, final breach depth, dam height, and water depth above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure were selected to construct a peak discharge prediction formula applicable to homogeneous dams, core wall dams, and panel dams.
The model improves the accuracy and stability of peak flow prediction for earth-rock dam break. The prediction error of the model is within 20% for different dam types, which is better than existing models. In particular, the prediction effect for core wall dams and panel dams is significantly improved.
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Figure CN119669677B_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] This invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy engineering technology, and more specifically, to a method and storage medium for predicting peak flow of earth-rock dam failure. Background Technology
[0002] According to research by ICOLD and ChinCOLD, 3,356 earth-rock dams (including concrete-faced dams) have failed to date, accounting for 94.32% of all dam failures, exceeding their proportion of 91.80% in the total number of dams. This failure is primarily due to the fact that earth-rock dams cannot withstand overtopping floods like rigid dams. Therefore, rapidly and accurately predicting the peak discharge of earth-rock dams during failure is of significant scientific importance for accurately calculating the failure flood and scientifically assessing the disaster consequences of earth-rock dam failure.
[0003] The existing calculation models for peak flow failure of earth-rock dams are summarized in Table 1.
[0004] Table 1 Existing models for calculating peak flow rates during earth-rock dam failure.
[0005]
[0006]
[0007] In Table 1, Q p V represents the peak flow rate at the breach. w H represents the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach during dam failure. w H represents the water depth above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure. b H represents the depth of the ulcer. d Let H0 be the dam height, g be the acceleration due to gravity, and H0 = 1m; for a dam that breaches over the crest, k M =1.85; for seepage failure dam breaks, k M =1; when H b When <6.1m, k H =1; when H b When k > 6.1m, H =(h b / 6.1) 1 / 8 .
[0008] Although there are many parameter prediction models for peak flow of earth and rockfill dams, most of them have not yet considered the impact of dam type on the peak flow of the breach. Homogeneous dams, core dams, and face-panel dams have different breach mechanisms and processes due to differences in dam structure and anti-seepage materials. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out classification prediction of the peak flow of breach for different dam types. Although the model of Xu and Zhang (Reference 1: Xu Y, Zhang M L. Breaching Parameters for Earth and Rockfill Dams[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2009,135(12):1957-1970) considers dam type and breach mode, the model currently has few database cases, which leads to the need to improve the accuracy of the prediction results. The model of Zhong Qiming (Reference 2: Chen Lingchun, Zhong Qiming, Mei Shengyao, et al. Numerical simulation of the continuous failure process of two-stage landslide dams and study on the evolution characteristics of breach flow[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2024, 55(04):493-504) only predicted the core wall dam and homogeneous dam, and has not yet constructed a flood peak flow prediction model for panel dams, nor has it considered the impact of the breach mode on the breach flood peak flow. Summary of the Invention
[0009] The purpose of this application is to address the shortcomings of the prior art by providing a method and storage medium for predicting peak flow rate of dam breakup based on erosion characteristics.
[0010] The technical solution of this application is as follows:
[0011] A method for predicting the peak discharge of earth-rock dams under overtopping failure conditions is proposed, and is determined using the following formula:
[0012]
[0013] Among them, Q P This represents the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure, expressed in cubic meters per second (m³). 3 / s; S represents the dam's reservoir capacity, in units of 10. 6 m 3 H d V represents the height of the dam, in meters (m). w This indicates the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure, in units of 10. 6 m 3 H b H represents the final depth of the breach, in meters (m). w This indicates the water depth above the bottom of the breach when the dam breaks, expressed in meters (m).
[0014] A method for predicting the peak discharge of earth-rock dams under seepage failure conditions is proposed, and is determined using the following formula:
[0015]
[0016] Among them, Q P This represents the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure, expressed in cubic meters per second (m³). 3 / s; S represents the dam's reservoir capacity, in units of 10. 6 m 3 H d V represents the height of the dam, in meters (m). w This indicates the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure, in units of 10. 6 m 3 H b H represents the final depth of the breach, in meters (m). w This indicates the water depth above the bottom of the breach when the dam breaks, expressed in meters (m).
[0017] A method for predicting the peak discharge of an earth-rock dam, specifically for core wall dams, is proposed, and is determined using the following formula:
[0018]
[0019] Among them, Q P This represents the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure, expressed in cubic meters per second (m³). 3 / s; S represents the dam's reservoir capacity, in units of 10. 6 m 3 H d V represents the height of the dam, in meters (m). w This indicates the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure, in units of 10. 6 m 3 H b H represents the final depth of the breach, in meters (m). w This indicates the water depth above the bottom of the breach when the dam breaks, expressed in meters (m).
[0020] A method for predicting the peak discharge of earth-rock dams, specifically for face-faced dams, is proposed, and is determined using the following formula:
[0021]
[0022] Among them, Q P This represents the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure, expressed in cubic meters per second (m³). 3 / s; S represents the dam's reservoir capacity, in units of 10. 6 m 3 H d V represents the height of the dam, in meters (m). wThis indicates the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure, in units of 10. 6 m 3 H b H represents the final depth of the breach, in meters (m). w This indicates the water depth above the bottom of the breach when the dam breaks, expressed in meters (m).
[0023] A storage medium characterized in that it stores a computer program capable of running the aforementioned method for predicting peak flow rates during earth-rock dam failure.
[0024] The beneficial effects of this application are as follows:
[0025] First, this study further collected the latest cases of earth-rock dam failures and established a large database that summarizes 295 cases from both domestic and international sources.
[0026] Second, based on this database, statistical analysis was conducted on the dam type, dam height, reservoir capacity, and failure modes of earth-rock dams. Correlation analysis of failure parameters was performed on earth-rock dam case studies with detailed information. The correlation between failure parameters and peak failure flow, from strongest to weakest, is as follows: dam reservoir capacity (S), reservoir capacity above the breach bottom at the time of dam failure (V). w ), final depth of the ulcer (H) b ), Dam height (H) d ), the water depth above the bottom of the breach during dam failure (H) w ), average width of the dam (W) ave ).
[0027] Third, based on 132 complete dam failure case studies and combined with existing prediction models for 20 typical earth-rock dam failure flows, a comparative analysis was conducted with the prediction model proposed in this paper. The comparison revealed that models with fewer actual cases and single-parameter prediction models showed significantly lower prediction accuracy compared to other models. The model presented in this paper exhibits a smaller root mean square error (0.38) and a larger coefficient of determination (0.82), validating its superiority.
[0028] Fourth, sensitivity analysis of the dam failure parameters revealed that the model is sensitive to all failure parameters, with the sensitivity of each parameter from strongest to weakest being: water depth above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure (H). w ), final depth of the ulcer (H) b ), the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach during dam failure (V) w ), reservoir capacity (S), dam height (H) d ).
[0029] Fifth, four typical dam failure cases from home and abroad were selected to validate the model. The model maintained a prediction error within an acceptable range of 20% for different dam types (homogeneous dam, core wall dam, and panel dam). The model has high accuracy and stability. Its prediction for core wall dam and panel dam is much smaller than that of other models, which shows obvious superiority and further verifies the necessity of considering dam type in the model. Attached Figure Description
[0030] The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings, but this does not constitute any limitation on the present invention.
[0031] Figure 1 It is LgQ P ~LgH b A diagram showing the relationships between them.
[0032] Figure 2 It is LgQ P ~LgH d A diagram showing the relationships between them.
[0033] Figure 3 It is LgQ P ~LgH w A diagram showing the relationships between them.
[0034] Figure 4 It is LgQ P ~LgV w A diagram showing the relationships between them.
[0035] Figure 5 It is LgQ P A diagram showing the relationship between ~LgS.
[0036] Figure 6 It is LgQ P ~LgW ave A diagram showing the relationships between them.
[0037] Figure 7 This is a comparison chart of the calculated and measured values of the flood peak flow in this application.
[0038] Figure 8 This is a comparison chart of the calculation results of the calculation method in this application and 20 existing methods.
[0039] Figure 9 This is a graph showing the prediction errors of peak flow rates for floods caused by different models. Detailed Implementation
[0040] The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to specific embodiments.
[0041] <Example 1: A Method for Predicting Peak Flow Rate of Earth-Rock Rock Dam Break>
[0042] <1. Construction of an Information Database on Earth-Rock Dam Failures>
[0043] As shown in Table 2, a database containing 295 earth-rock dam failure information entries was established. This database collected basic information such as the country where the earth-rock dam is located, dam name, dam type, failure type, and dam height (H). d ), dam reservoir capacity (S), final breach depth (H) b ), the water depth above the bottom of the breach during the breach (H) w ) and storage capacity (V w Peak flow rate of the collapse (Q) p The database contains failure data, including several key failure parameters for each failure case. Because failures are sudden events, data collection is challenging, and the database contains incomplete data. Therefore, data with relatively complete data was selected from the 295 failure cases used for model construction.
[0044] Table 2 Database of Earth-Rock Dam Failure Information
[0045]
[0046]
[0047]
[0048]
[0049]
[0050]
[0051]
[0052] Note: O represents overtopping failure, P represents seepage failure, HD represents homogeneous dam, CD represents core wall dam, and FD represents panel dam.
[0053] <2. Selection of failure flow parameters for earth-rock dams of different types>
[0054] Numerous factors influence the failure process of earth-rock dams. Whether predicting the peak flow of a homogeneous dam, a core-wall dam, or a face-panel dam, factors such as dam reservoir capacity (S) and dam height (H) are crucial. d ), average width of the dam (W) ave ), the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach during dam failure (V) w ), the water depth above the bottom of the breach during dam failure (H) w ) and final depth of the ulcer (H) b These six parameters all play a crucial role.
[0055] Therefore, by selecting cases with complete data from the database, correlation analysis was performed on the breach parameters and breach peak flow rates, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 6 .
[0056] If the peak discharge of an earth-rock dam can be represented by the power exponent of a certain failure parameter of the dam, then the logarithm of the peak discharge has a strong linear correlation with its logarithm. Parameters with strong correlation are selected as input parameters for the model.
[0057] Depend on Figure 1 It can be observed that the slope of the best-fit line is the largest, indicating that the final depth of the breach (H) is the largest. b The peak flow rate (Q) that determines the failure of an earth-rock dam is... p A crucial parameter affecting the magnitude of the breach is the peak discharge of the earth-rock dam. As the final depth of the breach increases, the peak discharge of the breach also increases. When the final breach depth exceeds 30m, the peak discharge reaches 10... 4 m 3 / s or more.
[0058] Depend on Figure 2 It can be observed that the height (H) of the earth-rock dam that experienced a collapse is... d The height of earth-rock dams is generally between 10 and 40 meters. When the height of earth-rock dams increases to 40 meters, the number of cases of earth-rock dam failure decreases significantly. Dam height represents its geometric characteristics; the higher the earth-rock dam, the larger its reservoir capacity, the greater the potential energy of the flood, and the larger the peak flow of the silt-retaining dam failure. Although the probability of failure for earth-rock dams above 40 meters is relatively small, once a failure occurs, the peak flow will increase exponentially.
[0059] Figure 3 This shows the water depth (H) above the bottom of the breach during the dam collapse. w ) and the peak flow of the flood (Q) p The relationship between ).
[0060] Figure 4 It can be observed that as the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach continues to increase, the peak flow of the breach flood also increases significantly, and the correlation coefficient between the two is the largest.
[0061] Figure 5 This demonstrates the dam's reservoir capacity (S) and peak outburst flow (Q). p The relationship between ).
[0062] Figure 6 This shows the average width of the dam (W) ave ) and the peak flow of the flood (Q) p The relationship between them has a wide 95% prediction interval and high data dispersion, with a correlation coefficient R. 2 The minimum is 0.14.
[0063] In summary, correlation analysis of the factors contributing to dam failure reveals that the correlation between dam failure parameters and peak dam flow, from strongest to weakest, is as follows: [correlation details omitted for brevity]. w ), dam reservoir capacity (S), final breach depth (H) b ), Dam height (H) d ), the water depth above the bottom of the breach during dam failure (H) w ), average width of the dam (W) ave ).
[0064] The ranking is based on the correlation between breach parameters and breach flood peak discharge: Reservoir capacity above the breach bottom at the time of dam breach (V w ), dam reservoir capacity (S), final breach depth (H) b ), Dam height (H) d ), the water depth above the bottom of the breach during dam failure (H) w ), average width of the dam (W) ave The regression prediction model is constructed by sequentially increasing the number of parameters, and the final number and type of model parameters are determined by judging the accuracy of each model's prediction.
[0065] Table 3 Prediction Results of Models with Different Parameters
[0066]
[0067]
[0068] Table 3 shows the predictive performance of models with different numbers of parameters. Analysis of Table 3 shows that the more parameters, the better the predictive performance. However, since the predictive model considering 6 parameters has only 35 cases, the limited number of cases means the model may not be able to fully capture the complex real relationships between variables, making it difficult to widely apply the model in prediction. Therefore, the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure (V) is selected. w ), dam reservoir capacity (S), final breach depth (H) b ), Dam height (H) d ), the water depth above the bottom of the breach during dam failure (H) w These 5 failure parameters are used to build the model.
[0069] <3. Calculation Models for Break-Through Flow of Earth-Rock Dams of Different Types>
[0070] Using the reservoir capacity above the breach bottom (V) during dam breakage w ), dam reservoir capacity (S), final breach depth (H) b ), Dam height (H) d ), the water depth above the bottom of the breach during dam failure (H) w To construct the model, the following relation is proposed:
[0071]
[0072] Taking the logarithm of both sides of the equation, we finally get:
[0073]
[0074] Next, regression analysis was performed on cases with complete relevant parameters selected from the database of failed earth-rock dams to build a model. A total of 132 cases with detailed failure information were identified. Since the probability of seepage failure in core-wall dams and face-panel dams is relatively low, and historical dam failure events are extremely rare, only different failure modes of homogeneous dams were classified and predicted. Among these, 85 cases of homogeneous dams experiencing overtopping failure were calculated, 20 cases of homogeneous dams experiencing seepage failure were calculated, 21 cases of core-wall dam failure were calculated, and 5 cases of face-panel dam failure were calculated. The final prediction formula is as follows.
[0075] Homogeneous dam—overtopping failure:
[0076]
[0077] Homogeneous dams—seepage failure:
[0078]
[0079] Heart Wall Dam:
[0080]
[0081] Panel dam:
[0082]
[0083] <4. Comparison of Calculation Results from Different Calculation Models>
[0084] Table 4 Comparison of the prediction performance of different models for peak flow of breach floods
[0085]
[0086]
[0087] Four well-known dam failure cases from both domestic and international sources were selected for model verification: Puddingstone Dam (homogeneous dam with seepage), Apishapa Dam (homogeneous dam with overtopping), Banqiao Dam (core wall dam), and Gouhou Dam (face panel dam). The specific calculation results obtained by applying this model are shown in Table 5.
[0088] analyze Figure 9 We can obtain:
[0089] (1) When predicting the Puddingstone homogeneous dam that has experienced overtopping failure, the Zhong Qiming (2020) model has the smallest prediction error of 5.84%, the de Lorenzo (2014) model has the largest prediction error of 98.28%, and the prediction error of this model is 10.94%, ranking second.
[0090] (2) When predicting the Apishapa homogeneous dam that has experienced seepage failure, the Azimi (2015) model has the smallest prediction error of 0.14%, the Froehlich (2016) model has the largest prediction error of 59.13%, and the prediction error of this model is 15.41%, ranking third.
[0091] (3) When predicting the slab bridge core wall dam that has experienced overtopping failure, the prediction error of this model is the smallest at 9.69%, while the prediction errors of other models all exceed 20%.
[0092] (4) When predicting the flow rate of a dam behind a ditch that has experienced seepage failure, the prediction error of this model is 0.03%, which is significantly better than other models. It can be seen that this model has stronger stability than other models, and can maintain a small error when predicting the flow rate of earth-rock dams of different types.
[0093] Table 5. Prediction Results of the Dam Failure Case Model
[0094]
[0095] The above-described embodiments are preferred embodiments of the present invention and are only used to facilitate the illustration of the present invention. They are not intended to limit the present invention in any way. Any person skilled in the art who makes local modifications or alterations to the technical content disclosed in the present invention without departing from the scope of the technical features of the present invention shall still fall within the scope of the technical features of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for predicting the peak discharge of an earth-rock dam failure, specifically for homogeneous dams under overtopping failure mode, characterized in that... A database of earth-rock dam failure information was constructed, and cases with complete data were selected from the database to conduct correlation analysis between failure parameters and failure peak flow. Based on the ranking of the correlation between the breach parameters and the breach peak flow, the model is constructed by selecting the dam reservoir capacity, dam height, reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of breach, final breach depth, and water depth above the bottom of the breach at the time of breach. The model is as follows: ， in, Q P This represents the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure, expressed in cubic meters per second (m³). 3 / s; S This indicates the dam's reservoir capacity, expressed in units of 10. 6 m 3 ; H d This indicates the height of the dam, expressed in meters (m). V w This indicates the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure, in units of 10. 6 m 3 ; H b This indicates the final depth of the breach, in meters (m). H w This indicates the water depth above the bottom of the breach when the dam breaks, expressed in meters (m).
2. A method for predicting the peak discharge of an earth-rock dam failure, specifically for homogeneous dams under seepage failure conditions, characterized in that... A database of earth-rock dam failure information was constructed, and cases with complete data were selected from the database to conduct correlation analysis between failure parameters and failure peak flow. Based on the ranking of the correlation between the breach parameters and the breach peak flow, the model is constructed by selecting the dam reservoir capacity, dam height, reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of breach, final breach depth, and water depth above the bottom of the breach at the time of breach. The model is as follows: ， in, Q P This represents the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure, expressed in cubic meters per second (m³). 3 / s; S This indicates the dam's reservoir capacity, expressed in units of 10. 6 m 3 ; H d This indicates the height of the dam, expressed in meters (m). V w This indicates the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure, in units of 10. 6 m 3 ; H b This indicates the final depth of the breach, in meters (m). H w This indicates the water depth above the bottom of the breach when the dam breaks, expressed in meters (m).
3. A method for predicting the peak discharge of an earth-rock dam, specifically for core-wall dams, characterized in that... A database of earth-rock dam failure information was constructed, and cases with complete data were selected from the database to conduct correlation analysis between failure parameters and failure peak flow. Based on the ranking of the correlation between the breach parameters and the breach peak flow, the model is constructed by selecting the dam reservoir capacity, dam height, reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of breach, final breach depth, and water depth above the bottom of the breach at the time of breach. The model is as follows: ， in, Q P This represents the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure, expressed in cubic meters per second (m³). 3 / s; S This indicates the dam's reservoir capacity, expressed in units of 10. 6 m 3 ; H d This indicates the height of the dam, expressed in meters (m). V w This indicates the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure, in units of 10. 6 m 3 ; H b This indicates the final depth of the breach, in meters (m). H w This indicates the water depth above the bottom of the breach when the dam breaks, expressed in meters (m).
4. A method for predicting the peak discharge of an earth-rock dam, specifically for predicting the peak discharge of a face-faced dam, characterized in that... A database of earth-rock dam failure information was constructed, and cases with complete data were selected from the database to conduct correlation analysis between failure parameters and failure peak flow. Based on the ranking of the correlation between the breach parameters and the breach peak flow, the model is constructed by selecting the dam reservoir capacity, dam height, reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of breach, final breach depth, and water depth above the bottom of the breach at the time of breach. The model is as follows: ， in, Q P This represents the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure, expressed in cubic meters per second (m³). 3 / s; S This indicates the dam's reservoir capacity, expressed in units of 10. 6 m 3 ; H d This indicates the height of the dam, expressed in meters (m). V w This indicates the reservoir capacity above the bottom of the breach at the time of dam failure, in units of 10. 6 m 3 ; H b This indicates the final depth of the breach, in meters (m). H w This indicates the water depth above the bottom of the breach when the dam breaks, expressed in meters (m).
5. A storage medium, characterized in that, Its storage is capable of running a computer program for predicting the peak flow rate of an earth-rock dam failure as described in any one of claims 1 to 4.