Power supply system multistage reliability prediction method based on fault precursor parameters

By adopting dynamic fault tree and multi-stress field simulation model in the power supply system, combined with system fault precursor parameters and weight coefficient analysis, the problem of difficulty in evaluating the reliability of multi-level and multi-task power systems in the existing technology is solved, and a higher accuracy reliability prediction is achieved.

CN119670432AActive Publication Date: 2025-03-21HARBIN INST OF TECH
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202411808819.0
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2024-12-10
Publication Date
2025-03-21
Estimated Expiration
2044-12-10

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The existing reliability modeling methods are difficult to effectively evaluate the reliability of multi-level and multi-task power systems, and rely too much on underlying component information, and fail to fully consider the dynamic timing changes and multi-stress coupling of the system under working tasks.

Method used

The multi-level reliability prediction method of power system based on fault precursor parameters is adopted, and the system-level functional structure is characterized by dynamic fault trees, a multi-stress field simulation model and a system-level dynamic simulation model are established, the system failure precursor parameters are extracted, and the system-wide task reliability comprehensive characterization is achieved through weight coefficient analysis.

Benefits of technology

It improves the predictive capability under limited information on the functional reliability of complex electronic systems, improves the reliability prediction accuracy in multi-level, multi-task power systems, and can more accurately evaluate the reliability of the system under different task processes.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power supply system multistage reliability prediction method based on fault precursor parameters, belongs to the technical field of reliability prediction of a power supply system, and aims to solve the problem that the reliability of a multi-level and multi-task power supply system is difficult to effectively assess by an existing reliability modeling method. According to the method, a system dynamic fault tree is constructed according to a signal hierarchical relationship to represent a system function structure, external excitation is converted into component stress through a sub-circuit multi-stress field simulation model, and output parameters including performance degradation and function failure characteristics are determined in combination with a failure physical model of key parameters. Transmission from the component layer to the sub-circuit layer is completed; a system-level dynamic simulation model is established based on the system dynamic fault tree, functional unit output parameters under equal stress are obtained, and transmission from the sub-circuit layer to the functional unit layer is completed; and based on the function unit output parameter reliability, completing parameter transmission from the function unit to the system task section layer and the system general task layer through the weight coefficient, and predicting the final reliability.
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