Regional debris flow risk dynamic assessment method based on space-time probability

Through a method based on space-time probability, the risk of mudslides is dynamically evaluated, which solves the problems of model limitations and insufficient data utilization in traditional methods, and realizes accurate dynamic assessment of mudslideslides hazards and effective assessment and decision-making support for complex natural disasters.

CN119692781AActive Publication Date: 2025-03-25INST OF MOUNTAIN HAZARDS & ENVIRONMENT CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202510192467.9
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-02-21
Publication Date
2025-03-25
Estimated Expiration
2045-02-21

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Traditional mudslide risk assessment methods have model limitations, insufficient data utilization and lack of dynamic analysis capabilities, and it is difficult to fully reflect the complex trigger mechanism of mudslides and the nonlinear interaction of environmental variables, and fail to make full use of multidimensional information and reflect the impact of climate change on mudslide risks.

Method used

The dynamic assessment method of regional mudslide hazards based on spatiotemporal probability is adopted. By collecting basin unit data and grid data, the relationship between historical mudslide data and meteorological data is analyzed, the meteorological condition threshold is determined, the meteorological condition frequency and future time probability are calculated, the spatial probability is calculated based on the substance source distribution and basin connectivity index, and the mudslide susceptibility value is constructed through the random forest model, and the comprehensive hazard index is finally calculated through information entropy.

Benefits of technology

Accurate dynamic assessment of the risk of mudslides is achieved, and the result deviation caused by ignoring the dynamic characteristics of time and insufficient integration of multi-source data in traditional methods is solved, the accuracy and applicability of the model is improved, and the evaluation and decision-making support capabilities for complex natural disasters are enhanced.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a spatial-temporal probability-based regional debris flow risk dynamic assessment method, and belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prediction.The spatial-temporal probability-based regional debris flow risk dynamic assessment method comprises the steps of establishing a dynamic probability model of a time dimension and a distributed probability model of a spatial dimension by integrating data such as meteorological data and historical disaster records; in particular, the method can solve the problem of result deviation caused by neglecting time dynamic characteristics in a traditional method, achieves the accurate prediction of the debris flow risk, breaks through the limitation of the traditional method in the aspect of data utilization, and improves the accuracy of debris flow risk prediction. Through fusion of multi-source information, the precision and applicability of the model are improved, and the assessment and decision support capability for complex natural disasters is significantly enhanced.
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