Independent industrial park wind and light absorption capability analysis method considering adjustable potential of flexible load

Abstract

The invention provides an independent industrial park wind and light absorption capability analysis method and system considering flexible load adjustable potential. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring wind and light meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of an independent industrial park; performing clustering analysis on the wind and light processing data of the independent industrial park by adopting a clustering analysis method based on the wind and light meteorological data to obtain a wind and light output division result; determining an electrical load based on the unit parameter information and the operation data, performing load theoretical response potential analysis on the electrical load through a load elastic coefficient, determining an adjustable potential quantification result of the electrical load of each industry, and dividing an adjustable potential level of a total flexible load in the park; obtaining a typical scene of isolated network operation based on the wind and light output division result and the adjustable potential grade combination of the total flexible load, and constructing a wind and light absorption capability evaluation model considering the adjustable potential of the flexible load in the independent industrial park; and calculating absorption capability evaluation results in different scenes according to the wind and light absorption capability evaluation model. The method solves the problems that the wind and light absorption capability evaluation capability in the existing independent industrial park is poor, and the actual power distribution demand is difficult to meet.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment, and in particular to a method for analyzing wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads. Background Art

[0002] In the construction of renewable energy replacement projects in existing industrial parks, new energy projects of a certain scale are configured based on the energy consumption level and load characteristics of the park, and the construction of wind power and photovoltaic projects is promoted according to local conditions to change the traditional energy supply mode and reduce coal consumption. This will encourage the park's own power plants to participate in peak regulation, and achieve full self-generation and self-use of new energy without occupying the absorption space of the public power grid and ensuring energy safety. The park's incremental load, green electricity substitution and the integrated development of "source, grid, load and storage" have become important scenarios and key trends in the development of new energy projects.

[0003] Independent industrial parks with large-scale wind power and photovoltaic access to isolated grids will greatly increase the backup and peak-shaving needs of the park power grid. Wind power output, which is directly affected by wind speed, and photovoltaic output, which is directly affected by irradiance, are volatile and intermittent, which means that the park power grid must consider leaving enough backup capacity and sufficient peak-shaving capacity during operation to ensure the normal power supply of various loads in the park when wind power and photovoltaic output are insufficient, and the optimal consumption of new energy power generation in the park when wind power and photovoltaic output are too large. However, in actual operation, wind power, photovoltaics and loads often have time mismatches. For example, wind power output is usually higher at night, while load demand at night is usually lower than during the day; for example, the load is relatively low when photovoltaic power is high in the afternoon. The problems of ensuring power supply and promoting consumption are intertwined, bringing severe challenges to the safe and stable operation of the park power grid.

[0004] When the park load reaches its peak, the wind and solar power are at low output, and the energy storage charge state is too low to continue discharging, it is necessary to further increase the thermal power output or reduce the adjustable flexible load to meet the supply and demand balance of the park power grid; when the park load is at a low point, the wind and solar power are at high output, and the energy storage charge state is too high to continue charging, it is necessary to reduce the thermal power output or increase the adjustable flexible load to achieve a higher level of wind power consumption. If the thermal power is already at the minimum technical output, the load side load can no longer be adjusted, and the energy storage charge state is too high to continue charging, the park will abandon the wind and solar power, resulting in a waste of wind and solar resources and economic losses to the park.

[0005] Therefore, it is necessary to study the evaluation method of wind and solar power consumption level in independent industrial parks under the influence of wind and solar power output uncertainty, accurately grasp the static consumption capacity and dynamic consumption level of wind and solar power in independent industrial parks containing wind-solar-thermal-storage-load, lay the theoretical foundation for the efficient consumption operation mechanism of source-load interaction in the park, and improve the operation economy and wind and solar power consumption level of the park. On the one hand, the characteristics of wind and solar power resources are the key factors affecting wind and solar power output. On the other hand, affected by factors such as production process and electricity consumption behavior, different types of loads in independent industrial parks usually have different degrees of regulation potential, including load reduction, load increase and load shift. By quantifying and regulating the regulation potential of these flexible loads, it is possible to provide strong support for the new energy consumption of independent industrial parks when the regulation capacity of thermal power and energy storage is insufficient. Therefore, it is urgent to carry out research on the analysis methods of wind and solar power resource distribution characteristics and wind and solar power output characteristics, propose a flexible load adjustable potential evaluation method considering electricity consumption characteristics, construct a wind-solar-thermal-storage-load coordinated consumption model, and establish a quantitative evaluation system for wind and solar power consumption in independent industrial parks. Summary of the invention

[0006] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the wind and solar power absorption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads, so as to solve the problem that the wind and solar power absorption capacity in existing independent industrial parks is poor in evaluation and difficult to meet the actual power allocation needs.

[0007] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads, comprising: Obtain wind and solar meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of independent industrial parks; Based on the wind and solar meteorological data, cluster analysis is performed on the wind and solar processing data of independent industrial parks to obtain the wind and solar output division results; Determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, perform load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through the load elasticity coefficient, determine the quantitative results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and divide the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park; Based on the wind and solar output division results and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load, a typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained, and a wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads in an independent industrial park is constructed; The absorption capacity assessment results under different scenarios are calculated based on the wind and solar absorption capacity assessment model.

[0008] According to a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the present invention, the wind and solar power meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of the independent industrial park are obtained, specifically including: Take the installed capacity and maximum technical output of the thermal power units in the park , minimum technical output, maximum up / down climbing rate, maximum number of starts and maximum number of shutdowns per day; rated capacity, maximum charging power and maximum discharge power of the energy storage device; historical operating data of various loads in independent industrial parks at different power consumption levels; actual wind and solar meteorological data of independent industrial parks.

[0009] According to a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the present invention, cluster analysis is performed on the wind and solar power processing data of the independent industrial park based on the wind and solar power meteorological data using a cluster analysis method to obtain a wind and solar power output division result, which specifically includes: Based on the wind and solar meteorological data, a mapping model between wind and solar resources and power is constructed through a preset machine learning algorithm to obtain the wind power simulation results and photovoltaic power simulation results of independent industrial parks; Based on the wind power simulation results and the photovoltaic power simulation results, clustering processing is performed through a cluster analysis method to obtain the wind and solar power output division results of independent industrial parks.

[0010] According to a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible load provided by the present invention, the power load is determined based on the unit parameter information and operation data, the power load is subjected to load theoretical response potential analysis through the load elasticity coefficient, the adjustable potential quantitative results of the power load of each industry are determined, and the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park is divided, which specifically includes: Determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, calculate the daily load curve, and calculate the load elasticity coefficient based on the mean square error of the daily load curve; The power load is subjected to load theoretical response potential analysis through load elasticity coefficient, the adjustable potential quantitative results of the power load of each industry are determined, the adjustable potential of the flexible load of each industry is quantified, and the quantitative results are generated; According to the quantitative results, the adjustable potential levels of the total flexible load in independent industrial parks are divided.

[0011] According to a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the present invention, the load elasticity coefficient calculation process includes: in, is the load elasticity coefficient of the power load in the tth period; is the normalized power load in the tth period on the rth day; It is the normalized average value of the electricity load in the tth period within a month.

[0012] According to a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the present invention, a typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load, and a wind and solar power consumption capacity evaluation model of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads is constructed, which specifically includes: A typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load; Based on the typical scenario of isolated grid operation, a characteristic model of flexible load participation response in the park is constructed; Based on the characteristic model, taking the maximum absorption of wind and solar power as the optimization goal and considering various operating constraints, a wind and solar power absorption capacity assessment model for independent industrial parks considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads is constructed.

[0013] The present invention also provides a wind and solar power consumption capacity analysis system for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads, the system comprising: Data acquisition module, used to obtain wind and solar meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of independent industrial parks; A wind and solar output division module, used to perform cluster analysis on the wind and solar processing data of independent industrial parks based on the wind and solar meteorological data by using a cluster analysis method to obtain a wind and solar output division result; A load response potential classification module is used to determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, perform load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through the load elasticity coefficient, determine the quantified results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and classify the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park; An evaluation module is used to obtain a typical scenario of isolated grid operation based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load, and to construct a wind and solar power consumption capacity evaluation model for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of the flexible load; The result output module is used to calculate the absorption capacity assessment results under different scenarios based on the wind and solar absorption capacity assessment model.

[0014] The present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, it implements any of the above-mentioned methods for analyzing the wind and solar power absorption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads.

[0015] The present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for analyzing the wind and solar power absorption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads as described in any of the above methods.

[0016] The present invention also provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-mentioned methods for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads.

[0017] The present invention provides a method and system for analyzing the wind and solar power absorption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads. By dividing the wind and solar power output of the independent industrial park and determining the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load, a wind and solar power absorption capacity evaluation model for the independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads is constructed, and the absorption capacity evaluation results under different scenarios can be calculated. By quantifying and regulating the adjustment potential of these flexible loads, strong support can be provided for the new energy absorption of the independent industrial park when the adjustment capacity of thermal power and energy storage is insufficient, and accurate evaluation of the wind and solar power absorption capacity can be achieved, which can meet the actual power allocation needs. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0018] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0019] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the present invention.

[0020] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of load matching results when the load adjustment wind level is weak and the load level is low, provided by the present invention.

[0021] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of load matching results when the load level is low without considering the load adjustment wind level provided by the present invention.

[0022] Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of load matching results when the wind level is strong and the load level is low without considering load regulation provided by the present invention.

[0023] Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of load matching results when the load regulation wind level is weak and the load level is low, provided by the present invention.

[0024] Figure 6 It is a schematic diagram of load matching results when the load level is low and the load adjustment wind level is considered provided by the present invention.

[0025] Figure 7 It is a schematic diagram of load matching results when the load regulation wind level is strong and the load level is low, provided by the present invention.

[0026] Figure 8 It is a schematic diagram of load matching results provided by the present invention when the load adjustment wind level is medium-high.

[0027] Fig. 9 It is a schematic diagram of load matching results provided by the present invention when the load adjustment wind level is medium-high.

[0028] Fig.10 It is a schematic diagram of module connection of an independent industrial park wind and solar power consumption capacity analysis system taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the present invention.

[0029] Fig.11 It is a structural schematic diagram of the electronic device provided by the present invention.

[0030] Reference numerals: 110: data acquisition module; 120: wind and solar power output division module; 130: load response potential division module; 140: evaluation module; 150: result output module; 1110: processor; 1120: communication interface; 1130: memory; 1140: communication bus. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0031] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0032] Combine the following Figure 1 The present invention describes a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads, including: step 100, obtaining wind and solar power meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of the independent industrial park.

[0033] In the present invention, the installed capacity and maximum technical output of the thermal power units in the park are obtained. , minimum technical output , maximum up / down ramp rate, maximum number of starts and maximum number of shutdowns per day; obtain the rated capacity and maximum charging power of the energy storage device With maximum discharge power ; Obtain historical operating data of various loads in the park at different power consumption levels; Obtain measured meteorological data of wind and solar resources in independent industrial parks.

[0034] Obtaining data from multiple independent industrial parks can help to accurately match the relationship between production capacity and consumption in the future.

[0035] Step 200: Based on the wind, solar and meteorological data, a cluster analysis method is used to perform cluster analysis on the wind and solar processing data of the independent industrial park to obtain a wind and solar output division result.

[0036] Specifically, based on wind and solar meteorological data, a mapping model of wind and solar resources and power is constructed through a preset machine learning algorithm to obtain wind power simulation results and photovoltaic power simulation results for independent industrial parks; Based on the wind power simulation results and the photovoltaic power simulation results, clustering processing is performed through a cluster analysis method to obtain the wind and solar power output division results of independent industrial parks.

[0037] In the present invention, after obtaining the measured meteorological data of wind and solar resources in an independent industrial park, a mapping model of wind and solar resources and power is constructed based on a machine learning algorithm to obtain the simulation results of wind power in the park. Simulation results of photovoltaic power ; Input simulation results and ,The cluster analysis method is used to cluster the results, and the typical wind and solar power output mode in the park is output.

[0038] Step 300: determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, perform load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through the load elasticity coefficient, determine the quantitative results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and divide the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park.

[0039] Specifically, the power load is determined based on the unit parameter information and operation data, the daily load curve is calculated, and the load elasticity coefficient is calculated according to the mean square error of the daily load curve; The power load is subjected to load theoretical response potential analysis through load elasticity coefficient, the adjustable potential quantitative results of the power load of each industry are determined, the adjustable potential of the flexible load of each industry is quantified, and the quantitative results are generated; According to the quantitative results, the adjustable potential levels of the total flexible load in independent industrial parks are divided.

[0040] In the present invention, based on the theoretical response potential evaluation framework of the load elasticity coefficient method, the elasticity coefficient can identify the flexibility and controllability of the change of power load over time. By evaluating the load theoretical response potential of each industry in the park, the quantification of the adjustable potential of flexible loads in each industry is achieved, and the level of load adjustable potential is divided according to the quantification results.

[0041] In a specific implementation step, the average load curve is calculated, and all daily loads are averaged to obtain the monthly average load curve; the mean square error of the daily load curve is used to measure the time elasticity of the load curve, and the load elasticity coefficient is calculated; the load theoretical response potential during the peak / valley period of the power load in the park is calculated; and the load theoretical response potential during the peak / valley period of each industry in the park is calculated.

[0042] The load elastic coefficient is calculated as follows: In the formula, is the load elasticity coefficient of the power load in the tth period; is the normalized power load in the tth period on the rth day; It is the normalized average value of the electricity load in the tth period within a month.

[0043] The response potential calculation of the power load in the park during peak and valley periods is as follows: In the formula, and are the response potential of the i-th power load in the peak period and the response potential of the load in the valley period respectively; The peak period is gathered; Gather for off-peak hours; is the maximum load value on a typical day; It is the difference between the peak load of a typical day and the load during the off-peak period, which is defined as the residual response potential.

[0044] The response potential calculation of each industry in the park during peak / valley periods is as follows: In the formula, is the load response potential of the industry during peak hours, is the load response potential of the industry during the valley period, I is the total electricity load of the industry.

[0045] Step 400: Based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load, a typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained, and a wind and solar power absorption capacity assessment model considering the adjustable potential of the flexible load in an independent industrial park is constructed.

[0046] Specifically, a typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load; Based on the typical scenario of isolated grid operation, a characteristic model of flexible load participation response in the park is constructed; Based on the characteristic model, taking the maximum absorption of wind and solar power as the optimization goal and considering various operating constraints, a wind and solar power absorption capacity assessment model for independent industrial parks considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads is constructed.

[0047] In the present invention, firstly, a typical scenario of isolated grid operation in an independent industrial park is combined; a characteristic model of flexible load participation response in the park is constructed; it is clarified that the park takes the maximum absorption of wind and solar power as the optimization goal, and various operating constraints are considered to construct a wind and solar power absorption capacity assessment model for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads; and the wind and solar power absorption capacity of an independent industrial park under different scenarios is evaluated.

[0048] The combination obtains typical scenarios of isolated grid operation in independent industrial parks, divides the output modes of the park's photovoltaic power stations into three weather types: sunny, cloudy, and rainy days, divides the output modes of the park's wind farms into three wind intensities: strong, medium, and weak; divides the park's flexible load into three adjustable potential level modes: high, medium, and low; and combines the above modes to obtain different analysis scenarios for the evaluation of wind power consumption in independent industrial parks.

[0049] The characteristic model of flexible load participation response in an independent industrial park is as follows: Flexible loads are classified into transferable loads and adjustable loads and modeled and analyzed separately.

[0050] Under the premise of ensuring that the total load remains unchanged throughout the entire cycle, the power consumption of the transferable load in each period can be expressed as: In the formula, is the actual value of the load transferred into period t; is the actual value of the load transferred out during period t; and are the load power consumption before and after the transfer respectively; t s and t e are the initial time and the end time of the transfer cycle respectively; the transferable time interval within the scheduling cycle is .

[0051] The power consumption characteristics of adjustable loads in the process of providing demand response services can be expressed as: In the formula, and They are load increase and load decrease at time t respectively; and They are zero-one variables used to determine whether the load is adjusted up or down. If load adjustment occurs, the variable is set to 1.

[0052] The wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model for independent industrial parks considering the potential for flexible load adjustment is as follows: Establish the objective function of maximizing the wind and solar power absorption capacity: In the formula, is the proportionality coefficient, reflecting the priority rate of wind power and photovoltaic power consumption in independent industrial parks; N It is the total number of time periods of power load in the scenario.

[0053] Consider the output constraints existing during the operation of thermal power units: In the formula, the output of the thermal power unit is , , They are the upper and lower limits of the thermal power unit output. When running, its output must be greater than the lower limit, but it can be shut down to make its output 0.

[0054] Consider the ramp rate constraints of thermal power units: In the formula, and are the up-climbing rate and the down-climbing rate respectively; is the time interval between two adjacent moments.

[0055] For any unit u∈U , the initial time step t=0 , the unit status is: For any unit u∈U , the initial time step t＞0 , considering the unit startup and shutdown constraints: Unit startup status changes: Changes in unit shutdown status: Consider the maximum number of unit starts: When the number of startup times reaches the upper limit, the following conditions are met: Consider the maximum shutdown times constraint of the unit: When the number of downtimes reaches the upper limit, the following conditions are met: In the formula, the thermal power unit set is U , the total number of time steps is T , Represents the time step t Timing Group u The startup state; and Represents the time step t Whether startup and shutdown operations occur at the time, when startup or shutdown occurs, the variable status is 1.

[0056] Consider the operating constraints of the energy storage device: The charging and discharging of the energy storage device can be uniformly expressed as: Where: is the state of charge; and are the energy storage charging and discharging power respectively; and They are respectively the charging and discharging energy efficiency; and It is a 0-1 variable. A value of 1 indicates that there is charge (discharge) energy, and a value of 0 indicates that there is no charge (discharge) energy.

[0057] In the formula, and are the upper and lower limits of the state of charge of the energy storage device respectively; and are the upper limits of the charging and discharging power of the energy storage device respectively.

[0058] Consider the power constraint of wind power generation: Consider the power constraints of photovoltaic power generation: In the formula, It is the theoretical maximum output of wind power; It is the theoretical maximum output of photovoltaics.

[0059] Consider the power balance constraints of the campus: In the formula, is the total load of the independent industrial park during period t.

[0060] In this example, all days under three wind mode intensities (weak, medium, and strong) are matched with the data of the three load levels in turn, and finally combined to form 9 scenarios. In different scenarios, the cases with and without load regulation are compared, see the attached data. Figure 2 -Attached Fig. 9 .

[0061] Step 500: Calculate the absorption capacity assessment results under different scenarios according to the wind and solar absorption capacity assessment model.

[0062] In the present invention, energy consumption is evaluated in different scenarios based on the wind and solar power absorption capacity evaluation model, and overall coordination of wind-solar-fire-storage-load is carried out according to the evaluation results to avoid energy waste or failure to meet energy demand.

[0063] Based on the analysis method of wind and solar power absorption capacity of independent industrial parks considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the present invention, by dividing the wind and solar power output of independent industrial parks and determining the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load, a wind and solar power absorption capacity assessment model for independent industrial parks considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads is constructed, which can calculate the absorption capacity assessment results under different scenarios; by quantifying and regulating the regulation potential of these flexible loads, it can provide strong support for the new energy absorption of independent industrial parks when the regulation capacity of thermal power and energy storage is insufficient, realize accurate assessment of wind and solar power absorption capacity, and meet the actual power allocation needs.

[0064] refer to Fig.10 The present invention also discloses a wind and solar power consumption capacity analysis system for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads, the system comprising: The data acquisition module 110 is used to acquire the wind and solar meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of the independent industrial park; A wind-solar output division module 120 is used to perform cluster analysis on the wind-solar processing data of the independent industrial park by using a cluster analysis method based on the wind-solar meteorological data to obtain a wind-solar output division result; The load response potential classification module 130 is used to determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, perform load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through the load elasticity coefficient, determine the quantified results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and classify the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park; An evaluation module 140 is used to obtain a typical scenario of isolated grid operation based on the wind and solar output division result and the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load, and to construct a wind and solar power consumption capacity evaluation model for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of the flexible load; The result output module 150 is used to calculate the absorption capacity evaluation results under different scenarios according to the wind and solar absorption capacity evaluation model.

[0065] Among them, the wind and solar meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of independent industrial parks are obtained, including: Take the installed capacity and maximum technical output of thermal power units in independent industrial parks , minimum technical output, maximum up / down climbing rate, maximum number of starts and maximum number of shutdowns per day; rated capacity, maximum charging power and maximum discharge power of the energy storage device; historical operating data of various loads in independent industrial parks at different power consumption levels; actual wind and solar meteorological data of independent industrial parks.

[0066] Based on the wind and solar meteorological data, cluster analysis is performed on the wind and solar processing data of independent industrial parks to obtain the wind and solar output division results, which specifically include: Based on the wind and solar meteorological data, a mapping model between wind and solar resources and power is constructed through a preset machine learning algorithm to obtain the wind power simulation results and photovoltaic power simulation results of independent industrial parks; Based on the wind power simulation results and the photovoltaic power simulation results, clustering processing is performed through a cluster analysis method to obtain the wind and solar power output division results of independent industrial parks.

[0067] The power load is determined based on the unit parameter information and operation data, and the load theoretical response potential analysis is performed on the power load through the load elasticity coefficient to determine the quantitative results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park is divided, specifically including: Determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, calculate the daily load curve, and calculate the load elasticity coefficient based on the mean square error of the daily load curve; The power load is subjected to load theoretical response potential analysis through load elasticity coefficient, the adjustable potential quantitative results of the power load of each industry are determined, the adjustable potential of the flexible load of each industry is quantified, and the quantitative results are generated; According to the quantitative results, the adjustable potential levels of the total flexible load in independent industrial parks are divided.

[0068] The load elastic coefficient calculation process includes: in, is the load elasticity coefficient of the power load in the tth period; is the normalized power load in the tth period on the rth day; It is the normalized average value of the electricity load in the tth period within a month.

[0069] Based on the wind and solar output division results and the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load, a typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained, and a wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads in an independent industrial park is constructed, which specifically includes: A typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load; Based on the typical scenario of isolated grid operation, a characteristic model of flexible load participation response in the park is constructed; Based on the characteristic model, taking the maximum absorption of wind and solar power as the optimization goal and considering various operating constraints, a wind and solar power absorption capacity assessment model for independent industrial parks considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads is constructed.

[0070] Based on the wind and solar power absorption capacity analysis system for independent industrial parks taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the present invention, by dividing the wind and solar power output of independent industrial parks and determining the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load, a wind and solar power absorption capacity assessment model for independent industrial parks taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads is constructed, which can calculate the absorption capacity assessment results under different scenarios; by quantifying and regulating the regulation potential of these flexible loads, it can provide strong support for the new energy absorption of independent industrial parks when the regulation capacity of thermal power and energy storage is insufficient, realize accurate assessment of wind and solar power absorption capacity, and meet the actual power allocation needs.

[0071] Fig.11 An example of a physical structure diagram of an electronic device is shown in FIG. Fig.11As shown, the electronic device may include: a processor (processor) 1110 , a communication interface (Communications Interface) 1120 , a memory (memory) 1130 and a communication bus 1140 , wherein the processor 1110 , the communication interface 1120 , and the memory 1130 communicate with each other via the communication bus 1140 . Processor 1110 can call logic instructions in memory 1130 to execute a method for analyzing wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads, the method comprising: obtaining wind and solar power meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of the independent industrial park; performing cluster analysis on wind and solar power processing data of the independent industrial park based on the wind and solar power meteorological data to obtain wind and solar power output division results; determining power load based on unit parameter information and operation data, performing load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through load elasticity coefficient, determining the quantitative results of adjustable potential of power loads in various industries, and dividing the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park; obtaining a typical scenario of isolated grid operation based on the combination of the wind and solar power output division results and the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load, and constructing a wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads; and calculating the consumption capacity assessment results under different scenarios according to the wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model.

[0072] In addition, the logic instructions in the above-mentioned memory 1130 can be implemented in the form of a software functional unit and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when it is sold or used as an independent product. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), disk or optical disk, etc. Various media that can store program codes.

[0073] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program, and the computer program can be stored on a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer can execute a method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the above-mentioned methods. The method includes: obtaining wind and solar power meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of the independent industrial park; based on the wind and solar power meteorological data, using a cluster analysis method to perform cluster analysis on the wind and solar power processing data of the independent industrial park to obtain a wind and solar power output division result; determining the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, performing a load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through a load elasticity coefficient, determining the quantitative results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and dividing the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park; based on the combination of the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load, obtaining a typical scenario of isolated grid operation, and constructing a wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads; calculating the consumption capacity assessment results under different scenarios according to the wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model.

[0074] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, is implemented to execute a method for analyzing wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads provided by the above-mentioned methods, the method comprising: obtaining wind and solar power meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of the independent industrial park; performing cluster analysis on the wind and solar power processing data of the independent industrial park based on the wind and solar power meteorological data to obtain a wind and solar power output division result; determining the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, performing load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through the load elasticity coefficient, determining the quantitative results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and dividing the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park; obtaining a typical scenario of isolated grid operation based on the combination of the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load, and constructing a wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads; and calculating the consumption capacity assessment results under different scenarios according to the wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model.

[0075] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Ordinary technicians in this field can understand and implement it without paying creative labor.

[0076] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that each implementation method can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course, can also be implemented by hardware. Based on this understanding, the above technical solution is essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a disk, an optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment or some parts of the embodiments.

[0077] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads, characterized in that: include: Obtain wind and solar meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of independent industrial parks; Based on the wind and solar meteorological data, cluster analysis is performed on the wind and solar processing data of independent industrial parks to obtain the wind and solar output division results; Determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, perform load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through the load elasticity coefficient, determine the quantitative results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and divide the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park; Based on the wind and solar output division results and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load, a typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained, and a wind and solar power consumption capacity assessment model considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads in an independent industrial park is constructed; The absorption capacity assessment results under different scenarios are calculated based on the wind and solar absorption capacity assessment model.

2. The method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The acquisition of wind and solar meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of the independent industrial park specifically includes: Take the installed capacity and maximum technical output of thermal power units in independent industrial parks , minimum technical output, maximum up / down climbing rate, maximum number of starts and maximum number of shutdowns per day; rated capacity, maximum charging power and maximum discharge power of the energy storage device; historical operating data of various loads in independent industrial parks at different power consumption levels; actual wind and solar meteorological data of independent industrial parks.

3. The method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The cluster analysis method is used to perform cluster analysis on the wind and solar processing data of the independent industrial park based on the wind and solar meteorological data to obtain the wind and solar output division results, which specifically include: Based on the wind and solar meteorological data, a mapping model between wind and solar resources and power is constructed through a preset machine learning algorithm to obtain the wind power simulation results and photovoltaic power simulation results of independent industrial parks; Based on the wind power simulation results and the photovoltaic power simulation results, clustering processing is performed through a cluster analysis method to obtain the wind and solar power output division results of independent industrial parks.

4. The method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The power load is determined based on the unit parameter information and operation data, and the power load is subjected to load theoretical response potential analysis through the load elasticity coefficient, the adjustable potential quantitative results of the power load of each industry are determined, and the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park is divided, specifically including: Determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, calculate the daily load curve, and calculate the load elasticity coefficient based on the mean square error of the daily load curve; The power load is subjected to load theoretical response potential analysis through load elasticity coefficient, the adjustable potential quantitative results of the power load of each industry are determined, the adjustable potential of the flexible load of each industry is quantified, and the quantitative results are generated; According to the quantitative results, the adjustable potential levels of the total flexible load in independent industrial parks are divided.

5. The method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The load elastic coefficient calculation process includes: in, is the load elasticity coefficient of the power load in the tth period; is the normalized power load in the tth period on the rth day; It is the normalized average value of the electricity load in the tth period within a month.

6. The method for analyzing the wind and solar power consumption capacity of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load, and a wind and solar power consumption capacity evaluation model considering the adjustable potential of flexible load in an independent industrial park is constructed, which specifically includes: A typical scenario of isolated grid operation is obtained based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load; Based on the typical scenario of isolated grid operation, a characteristic model of flexible load participation response in the park is constructed; Based on the characteristic model, taking the maximum absorption of wind and solar power as the optimization goal and considering various operating constraints, a wind and solar power absorption capacity assessment model for independent industrial parks considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads is constructed.

7. An independent industrial park wind and solar power consumption capacity analysis system considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads, characterized in that: The system comprises: Data acquisition module, used to obtain wind and solar meteorological data, unit parameter information and operation data of independent industrial parks; A wind and solar output division module, used to perform cluster analysis on the wind and solar processing data of independent industrial parks based on the wind and solar meteorological data by using a cluster analysis method to obtain a wind and solar output division result; A load response potential classification module is used to determine the power load based on the unit parameter information and operation data, perform load theoretical response potential analysis on the power load through the load elasticity coefficient, determine the quantified results of the adjustable potential of the power load of each industry, and classify the adjustable potential level of the total flexible load in the park; An evaluation module is used to obtain a typical scenario of isolated grid operation based on the wind and solar power output division result and the adjustable potential level combination of the total flexible load, and to construct a wind and solar power consumption capacity evaluation model for an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of the flexible load; The result output module is used to calculate the absorption capacity assessment results under different scenarios based on the wind and solar absorption capacity assessment model.

8. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the wind and solar power absorption capacity analysis method of an independent industrial park considering the adjustable potential of flexible loads as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the method for analyzing the wind and solar power absorption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the method for analyzing the wind and solar power absorption capacity of an independent industrial park taking into account the adjustable potential of flexible loads as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

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