Prediction of congestion risk, emergency evacuation methods, systems and equipment for passenger and vehicle ferries

Abstract

The present application belongs to the field of shipping informationization, and specifically discloses a method, system and equipment for predicting the congestion risk of a passenger and vehicle ferry, and for emergency evacuation, including: predicting the volume of vehicles entering the port in combination with the volume of vehicles on the roads surrounding the port area and vehicle reservation information, and determining the capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area in a future preset time period in combination with the predicted volume of vehicles entering the port; when the predicted volume of vehicles that will enter the port area is greater than the port area's vehicle capacity in a future preset time period, judging the congestion risk of the port area in a future preset time period based on the difference in volume between the predicted volume of vehicles entering the port and the current volume of vehicles entering the port; when the predicted volume of vehicles that will enter the port area is not greater than the port area's vehicle capacity in a future preset time period, judging the congestion risk of the port area in a future preset time period based on the above-mentioned volume difference and the ratio of the capacity difference between the port area's vehicle capacity in a future preset time period and the predicted volume of vehicles that will enter the port area. Through the present application, the congestion risk of the port area where the passenger and vehicle ferry is located can be reasonably predicted.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application belongs to the field of shipping informationization, and more specifically, relates to a method, system and equipment for predicting the risk of congestion in a passenger and vehicle ferry and for emergency evacuation. Background Art

[0002] During the peak period of passenger and vehicle ferry transportation, the throughput of vehicles crossing the sea can reach more than three times the daily throughput, and the throughput on some holidays can reach more than twice the daily throughput. This peak demand for crossing the sea in a short period of time often leads to congestion inside and outside the port area. The core reason for congestion is that the number of vehicles arriving at the port area per unit time is higher than the maximum transportation capacity of the port area's ship passenger ferry per unit time. There are currently two main ways to avoid congestion. One is to increase the overall transportation capacity by increasing the number of ships and berths, and the other is to predict the flow and predict the risk of congestion in advance to provide early guidance.

[0003] However, the current traffic forecasting and risk prediction capabilities are far from sufficient to support the formulation of real-time vehicle guidance strategies. There are mainly the following deficiencies: The current traffic forecast is mainly for the daily car traffic in the next few days, and it is impossible to achieve real-time and accurate forecast of the arrival traffic. Once there is a suspension of flights due to special reasons (such as heavy fog), all advance prediction data will have no reference value. A large number of stranded passengers caused by the suspension of flights will "collide" with the current passengers who have purchased tickets, causing large-scale congestion in the port. At present, there is no more accurate congestion prediction risk model. It is impossible to evaluate and analyze data based on short-term traffic change information, port area waiting vehicle information, ship schedule transportation information, etc., and establish a heat map of the port area for the next few hours to accurately formulate transportation and guidance plans. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the defects of the prior art, the purpose of this application is to provide a method, system and equipment for predicting the congestion risk of passenger and vehicle ferries and emergency evacuation, aiming to solve the problem that the existing solutions are unable to accurately predict the port traffic in real time and unable to accurately predict the congestion risk of the port area where the vehicle ferries are located.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, in a first aspect, the present application provides a method for predicting the congestion risk of a passenger and vehicle ferry, wherein the passenger and vehicle ferry is used to load vehicles and provide water transportation services therefor, and the method comprises: Combine the traffic volume of roads around the port area and the vehicle reservation information to predict the traffic volume of vehicles entering the port in the next time period, and combine the predicted traffic volume of vehicles entering the port to determine the capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area in the future preset time period; the port area is used to provide a stop for the passenger and vehicle ferry; the vehicle reservation information includes the license plate information of the vehicle that has reserved the passenger and vehicle ferry in the port area; When the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area in the future preset time period, the congestion risk of the port area in the future preset time period is judged according to the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow of the port area, and the congestion risk level when the flow difference is a positive number is higher than the congestion risk when the flow difference is a negative number; When the predicted capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area is not greater than the capacity of vehicles in the port area within a preset time period in the future, the congestion risk of the port area within the preset time period in the future is judged according to the ratio of the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow, and the capacity difference between the port area vehicle capacity within the preset time period in the future and the predicted capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area; the congestion risk when the ratio is negative is lower than the congestion risk when the ratio is positive, and when the ratio is positive, the larger the ratio is, the higher the level of congestion risk is.

[0006] It should be noted that this application predicts the traffic volume entering the port area by combining the real-time traffic volume of the roads around the port area, and reasonably predicts the congestion risk of the port area by combining the vehicle capacity in the future preset time period of the port area. In this way, the congestion risk of the port area where the passenger and vehicle ferry is located and its surrounding roads can be accurately predicted in real time, so as to take reasonable evacuation strategies in time according to the predicted congestion risk level, avoid causing greater traffic congestion, and reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents.

[0007] In a possible implementation, the method further includes: when a suspension event occurs in the port area, if the suspension time on the preset date exceeds a preset duration, the congestion risk is at the highest level; the suspension event is that at least one passenger and vehicle ferry stops operating.

[0008] It is understandable that the above suspension events may occur when, for example, the passenger and vehicle ferry cannot operate due to extreme weather, a passenger and vehicle ferry suddenly breaks down and needs to be repaired, or some passenger and vehicle ferries temporarily need to perform other tasks and cannot operate normally, etc. During peak traffic periods, such as statutory holidays and weekends, when a suspension event occurs during peak traffic periods and the suspension time is too long, the risk of congestion may increase. Therefore, the suspension time on a preset date can be set to exceed the preset time, such as 3 hours, 5 hours, etc. At this time, the congestion risk is directly predicted to be the highest level for early warning.

[0009] In a possible implementation, the traffic volume of the roads around the port area and the vehicle reservation information are combined to predict the traffic volume of the incoming vehicles in the next time period, including: Obtaining the traffic flow information of the roads around the port area in the next time period; the traffic flow information includes the total number of vehicles in a unit time and the license plate information of each vehicle; Compare the license plate information included in the vehicle reservation information with the license plate information in the traffic flow to determine the ratio of the number of vehicles that will enter the port area in the next time period to the number of vehicles on the roads surrounding the port area; The total number of vehicles in the unit time is multiplied by the vehicle ratio to predict the inbound vehicle flow in the next time period.

[0010] In a possible implementation, the vehicle capacity of the port area in the future preset time period includes: the sum of the remaining vehicle space in the port area waiting for ferry parking lot and the maximum carrying capacity of all passenger and vehicle ferries operating in the future preset time period.

[0011] In a possible implementation, the congestion risk of the port area within a preset time period in the future is determined based on the difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow of the port area, including: When the flow difference is a positive number, the congestion risk is level M; When the flow difference is a negative number, the congestion risk is level N; M is greater than N, and both M and N are integers greater than 1.

[0012] In a possible implementation, the congestion risk of the port area in a future preset time period is judged according to the ratio, including: When the ratio is negative, the congestion risk is level 1; the level 1 congestion risk reflects that the port area is unobstructed and has no congestion; When the ratio is a positive number, a plurality of continuous threshold ranges of different levels are set. When the ratio is within different level ranges, the congestion risk corresponds to different levels. Here, the maximum level of congestion risk is M, where M is an integer greater than 1.

[0013] In the second aspect, the present application provides an emergency evacuation method, which is applied to roads around the port area, including: Determine the congestion risk of the port area where the passenger and vehicle ferry is located by using the method described in the first aspect or any possible implementation of the first aspect; When the congestion risk is level 1, no measures are taken; When the congestion risk is greater than level 1, as the congestion risk level increases, the following measures are taken: early warning state, increasing the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area, increasing the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area and performing the first type of diversion at key road entrances to the port area, or increasing the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area and performing the second type of diversion at key road entrances to the port area and a wider range of related road entrances; Among them, the early warning status is: frequently monitoring the changes in the congestion risk level; the first type of diversion is to restrict the vehicles whose first preset time difference from the departure time of the reserved passenger and vehicle ferry is less than the first preset time difference from entering the port area; the second type of diversion is to restrict the vehicles whose first preset time difference from the departure time of the reserved passenger and vehicle ferry is less than the second preset time difference from entering the port area; the duration of the second preset time difference is greater than the duration of the first preset time difference; the key road intersections include the main road intersections entering the port area from the periphery of the port area, and the relevant road intersections include the key road intersections leading to the port area within the city where the port is located.

[0014] It is understandable that as the congestion risk level increases, the emergency evacuation measures taken will become more powerful so as to effectively alleviate the corresponding congestion risks and ensure normal traffic around the port area and even in the city where the port area is located.

[0015] In one possible implementation, for the highest level of congestion risk caused by the suspension event, vehicles passing through the port during the suspension period and vehicles currently waiting to pass through the port are evacuated according to a preset ratio: The vehicles in the suspension period will be placed in the stranded vehicle queue according to the vehicle reservation information; Put the vehicles on the current schedule into the port transportation queue according to the vehicle reservation information; A preset proportion of vehicles are selected from the stranded vehicle queue in a loop and placed at the front of the current port evacuation queue. Vehicles in the port evacuation queue are selected according to the evacuation capacity of the current passenger and vehicle ferry schedule, and the branch office is controlled to release the selected vehicles until all vehicles in the port evacuation queue are evacuated.

[0016] In a third aspect, the present application provides a system for predicting congestion risk of a passenger and vehicle ferry, wherein the passenger and vehicle ferry is used to load vehicles and provide water transportation services therefor, and the system includes: The vehicle capacity prediction unit for entering the port is used to predict the vehicle flow rate of entering the port in the next time period in combination with the vehicle flow rate of the roads around the port area and the vehicle reservation information, and determine the vehicle capacity that will enter the port area in the future preset time period in combination with the predicted vehicle flow rate of entering the port; the port area is used to provide a stop for the passenger and vehicle ferry; the vehicle reservation information includes the license plate information of the vehicle that has reserved the passenger and vehicle ferry in the port area; a congestion risk judgment unit, for judging the congestion risk of the port area within a preset time period in the future according to the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow of the port area when the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area within a preset time period in the future, wherein the congestion risk level when the flow difference is a positive number is higher than the congestion risk level when the flow difference is a negative number; The congestion risk judgment unit is also used to judge the congestion risk of the port area within a future preset time period according to the ratio of the flow difference between the predicted port-entry vehicle flow and the current port-entry vehicle flow, and the capacity difference between the port area vehicle capacity within the future preset time period and the predicted capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area, when the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is not greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area within a future preset time period; the congestion risk when the ratio is negative is lower than the congestion risk when the ratio is positive, and when the ratio is positive, the larger the ratio is, the higher the level of congestion risk is.

[0017] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides an electronic device, comprising: at least one memory for storing programs; and at least one processor for executing the programs stored in the memory. When the program stored in the memory is executed, the processor is used to execute the method described in the first aspect, any possible implementation of the first aspect, the second aspect, or any possible implementation of the second aspect.

[0018] In a fifth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program. When the computer program runs on a processor, the processor executes the method described in the first aspect, any possible implementation of the first aspect, the second aspect, or any possible implementation of the second aspect.

[0019] In a sixth aspect, the present application provides a computer program product. When the computer program product runs on a processor, the processor executes the method described in the first aspect, any possible implementation of the first aspect, the second aspect, or any possible implementation of the second aspect.

[0020] It can be understood that the beneficial effects of the third to sixth aspects mentioned above can be found in the relevant descriptions of the first and second aspects mentioned above, and will not be repeated here.

[0021] In general, the above technical solutions conceived by this application have the following beneficial effects compared with the prior art: The present application provides a method, system and equipment for predicting the congestion risk and emergency evacuation of passenger and vehicle ferries. The method predicts the traffic volume entering the port area by combining the real-time traffic volume of the roads surrounding the port area, and reasonably predicts the congestion risk of the port area by combining the vehicle capacity of the port area in a preset time period in the future. The congestion risk of the port area and its surrounding roads can be accurately predicted in real time, so that reasonable evacuation strategies can be taken in time according to the predicted congestion risk level to avoid causing greater traffic congestion and reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents. The present application comprehensively considers road traffic information, port area traffic information, port area capacity information and ship transport capacity information, performs quantitative calculations based on mathematical models, and gives congestion risk levels under different circumstances.

[0022] The present application provides a method, system and equipment for predicting the risk of congestion in a passenger and vehicle ferry, and designs a set of reasonable and feasible emergency transportation plans according to the congestion risk level, which can automatically generate the level of congestion risk prediction according to different scenarios, and generate corresponding emergency transportation plans accordingly. Furthermore, the present application fully considers the potential congestion problems that may exist due to the suspension of port operations due to special circumstances, and forms a set of automated emergency transportation strategies based on different times and different circumstances, which can provide advance emergency plans and on-the-spot solutions for congestion in special circumstances. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0023] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for predicting the congestion risk of a passenger and vehicle ferry provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 2 It is a flowchart of the emergency evacuation method provided in the embodiment of the present application; Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive method flow of a congestion risk prediction and emergency evacuation method provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 4 It is an architecture diagram of a passenger and vehicle ferry congestion risk prediction system provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 5 is an architecture diagram of the emergency evacuation system provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 6 It is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0024] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present application more clearly understood, the present application is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0025] The term "and / or" in this application is a description of the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. The symbol " / " in this application indicates that the associated objects are in an or relationship, for example, A / B means A or B.

[0026] The terms "first" and "second" in the specification and claims of this application are used to distinguish different objects rather than to describe a specific order of objects. For example, a first type and a second type are used to distinguish different types rather than to describe a specific order of types.

[0027] In the embodiments of the present application, words such as "exemplary" or "for example" are used to indicate examples, illustrations or descriptions. Any embodiment or design described as "exemplary" or "for example" in the embodiments of the present application should not be interpreted as being more preferred or more advantageous than other embodiments or designs. Specifically, the use of words such as "exemplary" or "for example" is intended to present related concepts in a specific way.

[0028] First, the technical terms involved in the embodiments of the present application are introduced.

[0029] (1) Port area Port area usually refers to a part of the port, which includes two adjacent parts: water area and land area. The water area is mainly used for ships to berth, load and unload cargo, turn and sail, etc., including the channel in and out of the port, the harbor and the anchor pool in the port.

[0030] (2) Ro-passenger ferry Ro-Ro passenger ferry, commonly known as Ro-Ro passenger ship; Ro-Ro passenger ship uses vehicles filled with containers or cargo as the transport unit. When loading, the car and the trailer towed by the tractor vehicle enter the cabin through the gangway. After arriving at the destination port, the vehicle can be driven directly to the receiving unit.

[0031] The embodiments of the present application are described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application.

[0032] This application can solve the shortcomings of the existing methods by designing a passenger and vehicle ferry emergency transportation method and device based on congestion risk prediction. Through this method, a vehicle evacuation strategy can be formulated in real time according to the traffic flow information inside and outside the port area. When the traffic is too large and an early warning is generated, emergency plans of different levels are activated to ensure the balance of traffic flow inside and outside the port area, avoid congestion caused by excessive concentration of sea crossing demand, and realize orderly evacuation of vehicles.

[0033] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the congestion risk of a passenger and vehicle ferry provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included: Step S101, combining the traffic volume of roads around the port area and the vehicle reservation information to predict the traffic volume of vehicles entering the port in the next time period, and combining the predicted traffic volume of vehicles entering the port area to determine the capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area in the future preset time period; the port area is used to provide a stop for the passenger and vehicle ferry; the vehicle reservation information includes the license plate information of the vehicle that has reserved the passenger and vehicle ferry in the port area; Step S102, when the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area in the future preset time period, the congestion risk of the port area in the future preset time period is determined according to the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow of the port area, and the congestion risk level when the flow difference is a positive number is higher than the congestion risk when the flow difference is a negative number; Step S103, when the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is not greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area within a preset time period in the future, the congestion risk of the port area within the preset time period in the future is judged according to the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow, and the ratio of the capacity difference between the port area vehicle capacity within the preset time period in the future and the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area; the congestion risk when the ratio is negative is lower than the congestion risk when the ratio is positive, and when the ratio is positive, the larger the ratio is, the higher the level of congestion risk is.

[0034] Further preferably, judging the congestion risk of the port area within a preset time period in the future according to the difference between the predicted port traffic flow and the current port traffic flow includes: When the flow difference is a positive number, the congestion risk is level M; When the flow difference is a negative number, the congestion risk is level N; M is greater than N, and both M and N are integers greater than 1.

[0035] Further preferably, judging the congestion risk of the port area within a preset time period in the future according to the ratio includes: When the ratio is negative, the congestion risk is level 1; the level 1 congestion risk reflects that the port area is unobstructed and has no congestion; When the ratio is a positive number, a plurality of continuous threshold ranges of different levels are set. When the ratio is within different level ranges, the congestion risk corresponds to different levels. Here, the maximum level of congestion risk is M, where M is an integer greater than 1.

[0036] In a specific embodiment, M may be 5 levels, and N may be 4 levels.

[0037] Figure 2 It is a flowchart of the emergency evacuation method provided in the embodiment of the present application; Step S201, using the congestion risk prediction method provided in the above embodiment to determine the congestion risk of the port area where the passenger and vehicle ferry is located; Step S202: when the congestion risk is level 1, no measures are taken; Step S203, when the congestion risk is greater than level 1, as the congestion risk level increases, adopt a warning state, increase the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area, increase the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area and perform the first type of diversion at key road entrances to the port area, or increase the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area and perform the second type of diversion at key road entrances to the port area and a wider range of related road entrances; Among them, the early warning status is: frequently monitoring the changes in the congestion risk level; the first type of diversion is to restrict the vehicles whose first preset time difference from the departure time of the reserved passenger and vehicle ferry is less than the first preset time difference from entering the port area; the second type of diversion is to restrict the vehicles whose first preset time difference from the departure time of the reserved passenger and vehicle ferry is less than the second preset time difference from entering the port area; the duration of the second preset time difference is greater than the duration of the first preset time difference; the key road intersections include the main road intersections entering the port area from the periphery of the port area, and the relevant road intersections include the key road intersections leading to the port area within the city where the port is located.

[0038] Among them, optionally, the first type of diversion strategy can be: mandatory requirement that vehicles with less than 3 hours of sailing time are not allowed to go to the port to ensure the smooth flow of roads outside the port area; the second type of strategy can be: restricting vehicles with less than 3 hours of sailing time from entering the urban area to avoid larger-scale congestion in the urban area.

[0039] In a more specific embodiment, see Figure 3 As shown, this embodiment provides a comprehensive method for congestion risk prediction and emergency evacuation method. The above method can automatically predict port congestion and provide a set of corresponding emergency evacuation strategies inside and outside the port area to achieve emergency evacuation capabilities based on automatic prediction of congestion levels.

[0040] The algorithm input parameters corresponding to the method of this embodiment include: traffic flow information of roads around the port area, traffic flow information of entering the port area, ship schedule, reservation and ticket purchase information. The output of the algorithm is the congestion risk level and emergency evacuation strategy.

[0041] In the algorithm input parameters corresponding to the method of this embodiment, the traffic flow information of the roads around the port area is mainly the number of vehicles passing by every minute and the license plate information of all vehicles captured by the cameras around the port area. The number of vehicles can be represented by CN, with the unit of vehicle / minute, and the license plate information is represented by CLP. The license plate information of all vehicles passing by every minute can be represented by a queue, that is, CLP{CLP1, CLP2, ...CLP n}, subscript n indicates the total number of vehicles passing through per minute; the port traffic flow information mainly refers to the number of vehicles entering the port per minute CHN; the ship schedule is the ship schedule and the maximum number of vehicles that can be transported in the port within 1 hour, which can be expressed as BP{BPN1, BPN2, ...BPN3}, where BPN is the maximum number of vehicles that can be transported by the sailing ship; the reservation and ticket purchase information refers to the reservation and ticket purchase information of the crossing vehicle, mainly including the license plate number and schedule time, which can be expressed as CT{(CTP1,CTB1), (CTP2,CTB2), ...(CTP n ,CTB n )}express.

[0042] In the algorithm output, the congestion risk level is a comprehensive judgment based on the current road traffic volume, port area evacuation capacity, etc., which can be expressed as ConL. The emergency evacuation strategy is a different emergency evacuation strategy designed according to different congestion risk levels.

[0043] Further optionally, the congestion risk level is calculated as follows: 1) Based on the cameras on the roads around the port area, the traffic flow information of the current main roads entering the port is calculated (if you want to get more comprehensive traffic flow information, you need to obtain the traffic flow information of key highway intersections), and the traffic information CN is obtained through the front-end camera equipment; 2) The vehicle information obtained by the front-end structured camera is used to capture the license plate numbers of all vehicles, and the vehicle license plate number information CLP is compared with the reservation and ticket purchase information CT of the crossing-sea vehicles to determine the proportion of the vehicle license plate numbers in the CT queue in the CLP queue. The ratio of the number of crossing-sea vehicles to the total road traffic volume can be obtained through cumulative statistics of 10 to 20 minutes (the time period here can be preset to other values, and technicians in this field can adjust it as needed). This ratio is represented by Ce. The estimated crossing-sea traffic volume data CNT on the roads around the port area is calculated as:

[0044] 3) According to the port area ship schedule, calculate the total carrying capacity of all ships operating in the port area within one hour (the time period here can also be designed as other values). According to the ship scheduling, calculate the maximum carrying capacity of each ship and obtain the BP{BPN1,BPN2...BPN3} queue. The maximum evacuation capacity of ships in one hour BPN is:

[0045] 4) The waiting yard in the port area generally has a relatively fixed vehicle capacity. If the waiting yard in the port area is not full, the port area capacity PNC is equal to the sum of the remaining vehicle spaces in the yard and the number of ships evacuated within one hour BPN; if the waiting yard in the port area is full, the port area capacity is equal to the number of ships evacuated within one hour BPN.

[0046] 5) According to the port capacity PNC, the traffic flow data of crossing the sea CNT and the traffic flow information of entering the port CHN, the quantified congestion risk level ConL can be calculated. The calculation method is as follows: a. If CNT×60>PNC, and CNT>CHN, the congestion risk ConL reaches the maximum level 5, which is the super risk level; Here, 60 means that one hour has 60 minutes.

[0047] b. If CNT × 60 > PNC and CNT ≤ CHN, the congestion risk ConL is at level 4, i.e., the strong risk level; c. If CNT × 60 < PNC, the calculation method of the congestion risk is as follows:

[0048] d. If L is negative, the congestion risk ConL is at level 1, i.e., the unobstructed level; e. If 0 ≤ L < 1, the congestion risk ConL is at level 2, i.e., the weak risk level; f. If 1 ≤ L < 10, the congestion risk ConL is at level 3, i.e., the general risk level; g. If 10 ≤ L < 100, the congestion risk ConL is at level 4, i.e., the strong risk level; h. If L ≥ 100, the congestion risk ConL is at level 5, i.e., the super strong risk level; i. According to the actual operation situation, the above range parameters can be adjusted as appropriate.

[0049] 6) When a ship suspension event occurs in the port area, it is necessary to make a judgment in combination with the current traffic flow estimation. If the ship suspension time during important holidays exceeds 4 hours (which can be adjusted according to different holidays, for example, it can be set to 10 hours during the Golden Week and 4 hours during the Spring Festival), the congestion risk is directly defaulted to level 5. In other cases, calculate according to step 5 to obtain the current risk level.

[0050] It should be noted that the above ship suspension events can be caused by extreme weather, such as heavy fog, storm, etc.; in addition, the ship suspension time thresholds designed for different holidays are different because the traffic flow may be different during different holidays. For example, the traffic flow during the Golden Week is 3 times that of the normal time and 2 times that of the Spring Festival. Therefore, the ship suspension time thresholds can be designed as different thresholds according to the actual situation.

[0051] The emergency evacuation strategy method is as follows: Mainly, corresponding emergency evacuation strategies are formulated according to the congestion risk level ConL; 1) If ConL is at level 1, no measures need to be taken; 2) If ConL is at level 2, enter the warning state, and it is necessary to monitor the change of ConL every half hour. When ConL increases, adopt the corresponding evacuation strategy; 3) If ConL is at level 3, increase the ship schedule in the port area until ConL decreases or the ship schedule cannot be increased; 4) If ConL is level 4, it is necessary to increase the number of ship schedules in the port area and set up diversion equipment or diversion strategies at key road intersections for traffic police to implement, requiring that vehicles with less than 3 hours of sailing time are not allowed to go to the port to ensure the smooth flow of roads outside the port area.

[0052] 5) If ConL is level 5, it is necessary to increase the number of ship schedules in the port area and set up port lanes for diversion at key road intersections, highway entrances and other wider places to restrict vehicles that are less than 3 to 5 hours before the departure time from entering the city to avoid larger-scale congestion in the city.

[0053] In another more specific embodiment, for the level 5 congestion risk caused by the suspension of navigation, it is necessary to evacuate the vehicles crossing the sea during the suspension period and the vehicles currently waiting to cross the sea according to a certain ratio. The specific steps are as follows: a. Calculate the total number of vehicles waiting to cross the sea during the suspension period and put them into the stranded vehicle queue CPQ in the order of the sailing time of the ticket; b. Put the vehicles waiting to cross the sea in the current shift into the cross-sea transportation queue CTQ; c. Each time, 20% of the vehicles are selected from the CPQ and placed at the front of the current cross-sea transportation queue CTQ. A certain range of vehicles are selected for transportation according to the transportation capacity of the shift, and a text message notification is sent. When the key road diversion checkpoints see the text message notification, they will release the vehicles; d. Select the first 20% of the remaining vehicles in the CPQ queue and put them in the front row of the CTQ queue that has completed the first wave of transportation, and carry out transportation according to the method of step c; e. When the number of remaining vehicles in the CPQ is 10% of all the stranded vehicles in the original CPQ, they will be put into the CTQ queue at one time; f. Repeat steps c to d until all vehicles to be evacuated have been evacuated.

[0054] In summary, this application has designed a reasonable and feasible emergency transportation plan based on the congestion risk level, which can automatically generate the level of congestion risk prediction according to different scenarios, and generate corresponding emergency transportation plans accordingly. It fully considers the potential congestion problems caused by the suspension of port operations due to special circumstances, and forms a set of automated emergency transportation strategies based on different times and situations, which can provide advance emergency plans and on-the-spot solutions for congestion in special circumstances.

[0055] Figure 4 is an architecture diagram of a passenger and vehicle ferry congestion risk prediction system provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 4 As shown, including: The vehicle capacity prediction unit 410 is used to predict the vehicle flow rate of the next time period based on the vehicle flow rate of the roads around the port area and the vehicle reservation information, and determine the vehicle capacity that will enter the port area in the future preset time period based on the predicted vehicle flow rate of the port area; the port area is used to provide a stop for the passenger and vehicle ferry; the vehicle reservation information includes the license plate information of the vehicle that has reserved the passenger and vehicle ferry in the port area; The congestion risk judgment unit 420 is used to judge the congestion risk of the port area in the future preset time period according to the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow of the port area when the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area in the future preset time period, wherein the congestion risk level when the flow difference is a positive number is higher than the congestion risk when the flow difference is a negative number; The congestion risk judgment unit 430 is also used to judge the congestion risk of the port area within a future preset time period according to the ratio of the flow difference between the predicted port vehicle flow and the current port vehicle flow, and the capacity difference between the port area vehicle capacity within the future preset time period and the predicted capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area, when the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is not greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area within a future preset time period; the congestion risk when the ratio is negative is lower than the congestion risk when the ratio is positive, and when the ratio is positive, the larger the ratio is, the higher the level of congestion risk is.

[0056] Figure 5 is an architecture diagram of the emergency evacuation system provided in the embodiment of the present application; Figure 5 As shown, including: A congestion risk prediction unit 510, configured to determine the congestion risk of the port area where the passenger and vehicle ferry is located by using the congestion risk prediction method provided in the above embodiment; The emergency evacuation unit 520 is configured to take no measures when the congestion risk is level 1; The emergency evacuation unit 520 is further configured to, when the congestion risk is greater than level 1, take a warning state, increase the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area, increase the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area and perform the first type of diversion at key road entrances to the port area, or increase the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area and perform the second type of diversion at key road entrances to the port area and a wider range of related road entrances, respectively as the congestion risk level increases; Among them, the early warning status is: frequently monitoring the changes in the congestion risk level; the first type of diversion is to restrict the vehicles whose first preset time difference from the departure time of the reserved passenger and vehicle ferry is less than the first preset time difference from entering the port area; the second type of diversion is to restrict the vehicles whose first preset time difference from the departure time of the reserved passenger and vehicle ferry is less than the second preset time difference from entering the port area; the duration of the second preset time difference is greater than the duration of the first preset time difference; the key road intersections include the main road intersections entering the port area from the periphery of the port area, and the relevant road intersections include the key road intersections leading to the port area within the city where the port is located.

[0057] It should be understood that the above Figure 4 and Figure 5 The provided system is used to execute the methods in the above embodiments. The implementation principles and technical effects of the corresponding program modules in the system are similar to those described in the above methods. The working process of the system can refer to the corresponding process in the above methods and will not be repeated here.

[0058] Based on the method in the above embodiment, the embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, such as Figure 6 As shown, the electronic device may include: a processor 610, a communication interface 620, a memory 630 and a communication bus 640, wherein the processor 610, the communication interface 620 and the memory 630 communicate with each other via the communication bus 640. The processor 610 may call the logic instructions in the memory 630 to execute the method in the above embodiment.

[0059] In addition, the logic instructions in the above-mentioned memory 630 can be implemented in the form of software functional units and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when sold or used as an independent product. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present application.

[0060] Based on the method in the above embodiment, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program. When the computer program runs on a processor, the processor executes the method in the above embodiment.

[0061] Based on the method in the above embodiment, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer program product. When the computer program product runs on a processor, the processor executes the method in the above embodiment.

[0062] It is understandable that the processor in the embodiment of the present application may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, transistor logic devices, hardware components or any combination thereof. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor.

[0063] The method steps in the embodiments of the present application can be implemented by hardware or by a processor executing software instructions. The software instructions can be composed of corresponding software modules, and the software modules can be stored in random access memory (RAM), flash memory, read-only memory (ROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), registers, hard disks, mobile hard disks, CD-ROMs, or any other form of storage medium known in the art. An exemplary storage medium is coupled to the processor so that the processor can read information from the storage medium and write information to the storage medium. Of course, the storage medium can also be a component of the processor. The processor and the storage medium can be located in an ASIC.

[0064] In the above embodiments, it can be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, firmware or any combination thereof. When implemented by software, it can be implemented in whole or in part in the form of a computer program product. The computer program product includes one or more computer instructions. When the computer program instructions are loaded and executed on a computer, the process or function described in the embodiment of the present application is generated in whole or in part. The computer may be a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, a computer network, or other programmable device. The computer instructions may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium or transmitted through the computer-readable storage medium. The computer instructions may be transmitted from a website site, computer, server or data center to another website site, computer, server or data center by wired (e.g., coaxial cable, optical fiber, digital subscriber line (DSL)) or wireless (e.g., infrared, wireless, microwave, etc.) means. The computer-readable storage medium may be any available medium that a computer can access or a data storage device such as a server or data center that includes one or more available media integrated. The available medium may be a magnetic medium (e.g., a floppy disk, a hard disk, a tape), an optical medium (e.g., a DVD), or a semiconductor medium (e.g., a solid-state drive (SSD)), etc.

[0065] It should be understood that the various numerical numbers involved in the embodiments of the present application are only used for the convenience of description and are not used to limit the scope of the embodiments of the present application.

[0066] It will be easily understood by those skilled in the art that the above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present application and is not intended to limit the present application. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present application shall be included in the scope of protection of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the congestion risk of a passenger and vehicle ferry, wherein the passenger and vehicle ferry is used to load vehicles and provide water transportation services for the ferry, characterized in that the method include: Combine the traffic volume of roads around the port area and the vehicle reservation information to predict the traffic volume of vehicles entering the port in the next time period, and combine the predicted traffic volume of vehicles entering the port to determine the capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area in the future preset time period; the port area is used to provide a stop for the passenger and vehicle ferry; the vehicle reservation information includes the license plate information of the vehicle that has reserved the passenger and vehicle ferry in the port area; When the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area in the future preset time period, the congestion risk of the port area in the future preset time period is judged according to the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow of the port area, and the congestion risk level when the flow difference is a positive number is higher than the congestion risk when the flow difference is a negative number; When the predicted capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area is not greater than the capacity of vehicles in the port area within a preset time period in the future, the congestion risk of the port area within the preset time period in the future is judged according to the ratio of the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow, and the capacity difference between the port area vehicle capacity within the preset time period in the future and the predicted capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area; the congestion risk when the ratio is negative is lower than the congestion risk when the ratio is positive, and when the ratio is positive, the larger the ratio is, the higher the level of congestion risk is.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Also includes: When a suspension of navigation occurs in the port area, if the suspension time on the preset date exceeds the preset duration, the congestion risk will be the highest level; The suspension event refers to at least one passenger and vehicle ferry ceasing operation.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Combine the traffic volume of roads around the port area and vehicle reservation information to predict the traffic volume entering the port in the next time period, including: Obtaining the traffic flow information of the roads around the port area in the next time period; the traffic flow information includes the total number of vehicles in a unit time and the license plate information of each vehicle; Compare the license plate information included in the vehicle reservation information with the license plate information in the traffic flow to determine the ratio of the number of vehicles that will enter the port area in the next time period to the number of vehicles on the roads surrounding the port area; The total number of vehicles in the unit time is multiplied by the vehicle ratio to predict the inbound vehicle flow in the next time period.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The vehicle capacity of the port area in the future preset time period includes: the sum of the remaining vehicle space in the port area waiting for ferry parking lot and the maximum carrying capacity of all passenger and vehicle ferries operating in the future preset time period.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The congestion risk of the port area in the future preset time period is judged based on the difference between the predicted inbound traffic flow and the current inbound traffic flow of the port area, including: When the flow difference is a positive number, the congestion risk is level M; When the flow difference is a negative number, the congestion risk is level N; M is greater than N, and both M and N are integers greater than 1.

6. The method according to claim 1 or 5, characterized in that: The congestion risk of the port area in the future preset time period is judged based on the ratio, including: When the ratio is negative, the congestion risk is level 1; the level 1 congestion risk reflects that the port area is unobstructed and has no congestion; When the ratio is a positive number, a plurality of continuous threshold ranges of different levels are set. When the ratio is within different level ranges, the congestion risk corresponds to different levels. Here, the maximum level of congestion risk is M, where M is an integer greater than 1.

7. An emergency evacuation method, which is applied to roads around the port area, characterized in that: include: Determine the congestion risk of the port area where the passenger and vehicle ferry is located by using the method described in any one of claims 1 to 6; When the congestion risk is level 1, no measures are taken; When the congestion risk is greater than level 1, as the congestion risk level increases, the following measures are taken: early warning state, increasing the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area, increasing the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area and performing the first type of diversion at key road entrances to the port area, or increasing the schedule of vehicle-roller ferry flights within the port area and performing the second type of diversion at key road entrances to the port area and a wider range of related road entrances; Among them, the early warning status is: frequently monitoring the changes in the congestion risk level; the first type of diversion is to restrict the vehicles whose first preset time difference from the departure time of the reserved passenger and vehicle ferry is less than the first preset time difference from entering the port area; the second type of diversion is to restrict the vehicles whose first preset time difference from the departure time of the reserved passenger and vehicle ferry is less than the second preset time difference from entering the port area; the duration of the second preset time difference is greater than the duration of the first preset time difference; the key road intersections include the main road intersections entering the port area from the periphery of the port area, and the relevant road intersections include the key road intersections leading to the port area within the city where the port is located.

8. The method according to claim 7, characterized in that For the highest level of congestion risk caused by the suspension event, vehicles passing through the port during the suspension period and vehicles currently waiting to pass through the port will be evacuated according to the preset ratio: The vehicles in the suspension period will be placed in the stranded vehicle queue according to the vehicle reservation information; Put the vehicles on the current schedule into the port transportation queue according to the vehicle reservation information; A preset proportion of vehicles are selected from the stranded vehicle queue in a loop and placed at the front of the current port evacuation queue. Vehicles in the port evacuation queue are selected according to the evacuation capacity of the current passenger and vehicle ferry schedule, and the branch office is controlled to release the selected vehicles until all vehicles in the port evacuation queue are evacuated.

9. A system for predicting congestion risk of a passenger and vehicle ferry, wherein the passenger and vehicle ferry is used to load vehicles and provide water transportation services for the ferry, characterized in that the system include: The vehicle capacity prediction unit for entering the port is used to predict the vehicle flow rate of entering the port in the next time period in combination with the vehicle flow rate of the roads around the port area and the vehicle reservation information, and determine the vehicle capacity that will enter the port area in the future preset time period in combination with the predicted vehicle flow rate of entering the port; the port area is used to provide a stop for the passenger and vehicle ferry; the vehicle reservation information includes the license plate information of the vehicle that has reserved the passenger and vehicle ferry in the port area; a congestion risk judgment unit, for judging the congestion risk of the port area within a preset time period in the future according to the flow difference between the predicted inbound vehicle flow and the current inbound vehicle flow of the port area when the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area within a preset time period in the future, wherein the congestion risk level when the flow difference is a positive number is higher than the congestion risk level when the flow difference is a negative number; The congestion risk judgment unit is also used to judge the congestion risk of the port area within a future preset time period according to the ratio of the flow difference between the predicted port-entry vehicle flow and the current port-entry vehicle flow, and the capacity difference between the port area vehicle capacity within the future preset time period and the predicted capacity of vehicles that will enter the port area, when the predicted vehicle capacity that will enter the port area is not greater than the vehicle capacity of the port area within a future preset time period; the congestion risk when the ratio is negative is lower than the congestion risk when the ratio is positive, and when the ratio is positive, the larger the ratio is, the higher the level of congestion risk is.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: at least one memory for storing a computer program; At least one processor is used to execute the program stored in the memory. When the program stored in the memory is executed, the processor is used to execute the method as described in any one of claims 1-6 or 7-8.

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