Method and system for evaluating reliability of phase modifier auxiliary machine system of multi-target system

Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-target system phase modifier auxiliary machine system reliability evaluation method and system, and the method comprises the steps: 1, selecting a plurality of important target systems in a phase modifier auxiliary machine system, and the target systems comprise an oil-water system, an electrical control system, a mechanical transmission part and a cooling and lubricating part; step 2, obtaining related fault information of each target system from the operation record of the phase modifier auxiliary machine system, wherein the fault information comprises operation time, fault occurrence time and fault type data; 3, establishing a reliability model of each target system according to the related fault information, and calculating the reliability of each target system and the reliability of the auxiliary engine system according to the reliability model of the target system; and step 4, calculating reliability indexes according to the reliability value of the auxiliary engine system, wherein the reliability indexes comprise reliability and failure rate. The method provided by the invention can reduce the cost generated by expanded maintenance in the maintenance process, and ensures that the reliability index can be improved by operation control.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a reliability assessment method for a phase regulator auxiliary machine system, and belongs to the technical field of power system equipment operating status assessment. Background Art

[0002] There are two main methods for evaluating the reliability of the phase-shifting auxiliary system. One is based on experience judgment, which mainly relies on the long-term experience and professional knowledge accumulated by the operation and maintenance personnel to make subjective judgments on the reliability of the phase-shifting auxiliary system. For example, the operation and maintenance personnel roughly evaluate the reliability of the current phase-shifting auxiliary system based on the operation of similar equipment in the past, the frequency and manifestation of failures, etc. Through simple methods such as checking the appearance of the equipment, listening to the sound, and measuring the temperature, it is preliminarily judged whether the equipment is in normal operation. If the appearance of the equipment has no obvious damage, the operating sound is stable, and the temperature is within the normal range, the equipment reliability is considered to be high; otherwise, it is considered that the equipment may have potential reliability problems. Another method is the intuitive analysis method of equipment defects, which analyzes the obvious defects of each device, calculates the probability of defect occurrence based on family defects, and thus evaluates the reliability of the system. For example, if there is an equipment defect in the phase-shifting auxiliary system, similar equipment in the system is checked, such as power failure, control system failure, mechanical component failure, etc., and the logical relationship between these causes is analyzed.

[0003] The methods based on experience judgment and the intuitive analysis of equipment defects have the following disadvantages: lack of basis for the evaluation of equipment reliability, especially when there are many types and quantities of equipment, the evaluation workload is large, time-consuming and labor-intensive. The potential hidden dangers of the equipment cannot be accurately excavated, and only the problems of the equipment with defects are solved. Some equipment still needs to be disassembled during the maintenance, which is time-consuming. Summary of the invention

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is: how to automatically realize the reliability evaluation of the phase modulator auxiliary system, so as to further realize the optimized control of the phase modulator auxiliary equipment and reduce the risk of unplanned equipment shutdown.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0006] A multi-objective system reliability assessment method for a phase-shifting auxiliary machine system includes the following steps:

[0007] Step 1. Select multiple target systems in the phase condenser auxiliary system, wherein the target systems include an oil-water system, an electrical control system, a mechanical transmission component, and a cooling and lubrication component;

[0008] Step 2. Obtain relevant fault information of each target system from the operation record of the phase condenser auxiliary system, wherein the fault information includes operation time, fault occurrence time and fault type data;

[0009] Step 3. Establish a reliability model for each target system based on relevant fault information, and calculate the reliability of each target system and the reliability of the auxiliary system based on the reliability model of the target system;

[0010] Step 4. Calculate the reliability index according to the auxiliary machine system reliability value, wherein the reliability index includes reliability and failure rate.

[0011] The aforementioned multi-objective system reliability assessment method for phase-shifting auxiliary equipment includes the following steps in step 3:

[0012] 31) Decompose each target system into multiple components and establish a target system reliability model based on the connection method of each component;

[0013] 32) Analyze the collected fault information data to obtain the failure rate parameters of each component, and calculate the reliability of the corresponding target system according to the target system reliability model;

[0014] 33) Multiply the reliabilities of each target system to obtain the auxiliary system reliability.

[0015] In the above-mentioned multi-objective system reliability assessment method for phase-shifting auxiliary machine, in step 31), if the components are in series connection, the target system reliability is the product of the reliability of the components; if they are in parallel connection, the target system reliability is calculated using the following formula:

[0016]

[0017] Among them is No. The reliability of each component, is the number of components in parallel.

[0018] The aforementioned reliability assessment method for the auxiliary system of a phase-shifting machine of a multi-objective system decomposes the oil-water system into components such as oil-water quality, pipelines, pumps, motors, and valves;

[0019] The reliability function of the oil-water system is selected as the exponential distribution function, and the failure rate of the component is , then the reliability function of the components in the oil-water system is for:

[0020]

[0021] in is the running time, is the number of parts.

[0022] The above-mentioned reliability assessment method for the auxiliary system of the phase-shifting machine of a multi-objective system assumes that the reliability of the oil and water quality is The reliability of the pump body and the motor are , , valve reliability is , then the reliability of the entire oil-water system is calculated as: = × (1-(1- )×(1- )×(1- )).

[0023] The above-mentioned multi-objective system reliability assessment method for phase-shifting auxiliary machine system considers the PLC controller, sensor, motor and driver as a series relationship in the electrical control system, and evaluates the reliability of each failure rate. , , Establishing a Series Model to Calculate the Reliability of Electrical Control Systems :

[0024]

[0025] In mechanical transmission parts, according to the mechanical seal failure rate , Mechanical lubrication failure rate , Mechanical cooling failure rate Establishing a series model to calculate the reliability of mechanical transmission components :

[0026] ;

[0027] In the cooling and lubrication components, according to the cooler failure rate , Lubrication device failure rate Establishing a series model to calculate the reliability of cooling and lubrication components :

[0028] .

[0029] In the above-mentioned multi-objective system reliability assessment method for phase-shifting auxiliary machine system, in step 32), the reliability functions of each objective system are multiplied to obtain the auxiliary machine system reliability model:

[0030] ;

[0031] Represents the reliability function of the auxiliary system.

[0032] In the aforementioned multi-objective system reliability assessment method for phase-shifting auxiliary machine, in step 4, the reliability index calculation includes reliability calculation and failure rate calculation;

[0033] Reliability calculation: Run time Substitute into the auxiliary system reliability function Calculate the reliability of the auxiliary system within this time;

[0034] Failure rate calculation: numerical method is used to calculate the reliability function of auxiliary system Derivative calculation of instantaneous failure rate , which is used to analyze the probability trend of failures in auxiliary systems at different operating stages.

[0035] A computer device / equipment / system comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the above method.

[0036] A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program / instruction stored thereon, characterized in that the computer program / instruction implements the steps of the above method when executed by a processor.

[0037] Beneficial effects achieved by the present invention: The method of the present invention achieves the purpose of reliability assessment of the phase-shifting auxiliary system through multi-objective system selection, operation data collection, reliability model establishment, reliability index calculation, and reliability analysis. The research results can provide a reliable data basis for the operation and maintenance of the phase-shifting auxiliary system, realize accurate operation and maintenance of equipment, reduce the cost of extended maintenance during the maintenance process, and provide a reference for equipment operation optimization control to ensure that operation control can improve reliability indicators. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0038] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for evaluating the reliability of a phase-modulating auxiliary machine system of a multi-objective system in Example 1 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0039] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The following embodiments are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0040] Example 1

[0041] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a multi-objective system phase modulator auxiliary machine system reliability assessment method, comprising the following steps:

[0042] Step 1. Select multiple important target systems in the phase condenser auxiliary system, wherein the target systems include oil-water system, electrical control system, mechanical transmission components, and cooling and lubrication components;

[0043] Step 2. Obtain relevant fault information of each target system from the operation record of the phase condenser auxiliary system, wherein the fault information includes operation time, fault occurrence time and fault type data;

[0044] Step 3. Establish a reliability model for each target system based on relevant fault information, and calculate the reliability of each target system and the reliability of the auxiliary system based on the reliability model of the target system;

[0045] 31) Decompose each target system into multiple components and establish a target system reliability model based on the connection method of each component;

[0046] 32) Analyze the collected fault information data to obtain the failure rate parameters of each component, and calculate the reliability of the corresponding target system according to the target system reliability model;

[0047] 33) Since the target systems in the phase regulator auxiliary system are connected in series, the reliability of the auxiliary system can be obtained by multiplying the reliability of each target system.

[0048] In step 31), in the phase modulator auxiliary system reliability model, each target system is decomposed into multiple components, and the target system reliability model is established according to the connection mode of each component. If the components are in series, the target system reliability is the product of the reliability of each component; if they are in parallel, the target system reliability is calculated using the following formula:

[0049]

[0050] Among them is No. The reliability of each component, is the number of components in parallel.

[0051] In the oil-water system, the oil-water system is decomposed into components such as oil-water quality, pipelines, pumps, motors and valves, and a series-parallel combination model is established according to the connection method of each component;

[0052] For the reliability evaluation of each component, assume that the failure rate of oil and water quality is The failure rates of pump body and motor are , The failure rates of the three valves are , , , calculate the reliability of the oil-water system according to the set series-parallel model formula;

[0053] By analyzing the collected fault information data, the failure rate parameters of each component are obtained and the reliability of the oil-water system is calculated. Specifically, the reliability function of the oil-water system is selected as the exponential distribution function, and the failure rate of the component is , is a constant, then the reliability function of the components in the oil-water system is for:

[0054]

[0055] in Determine the failure rate by collecting component failure data for operating time The value of is the number of parts.

[0056] If the oil-water system works properly, the pump and at least one pipeline must work properly. Assume that the reliability of the oil-water quality is The reliability of the pump body and the motor are , , valve reliability is , then the reliability of the entire oil-water system is calculated as: = × (1-(1- )×(1- )×(1- )).

[0057] In the electrical control system, the PLC controller, sensor, motor and driver are considered as a series relationship. , , Establishing a Series Model to Calculate the Reliability of Electrical Control Systems :

[0058]

[0059] In mechanical transmission parts, according to the mechanical seal failure rate , Mechanical lubrication failure rate , Mechanical cooling failure rate Establishing a series model to calculate the reliability of mechanical transmission components :

[0060] ;

[0061] In the cooling and lubrication components, according to the cooler failure rate , Lubrication device failure rate Establishing a series model to calculate the reliability of cooling and lubrication components :

[0062] ;

[0063] In step 32), since the target systems of the phase-converter auxiliary system are in series relationship, the reliability functions of the target systems are multiplied to obtain the auxiliary system reliability model:

[0064] ;

[0065] Represents the reliability function of the auxiliary system.

[0066] Step 4. Calculate the reliability index according to the auxiliary system reliability value. The reliability index includes reliability and failure rate. Perform reliability analysis according to the calculation results, including importance analysis of different components and reliability analysis of the system as a whole.

[0067] In step 4, the reliability index calculation includes reliability calculation and failure rate calculation;

[0068] Reliability calculation: Run time Substitute into the auxiliary system reliability function The reliability of the auxiliary system within the time is calculated. At the same time, the reliability of each component or target system at a specific time can also be calculated to analyze the contribution of each part to the overall reliability of the auxiliary system.

[0069] Failure rate calculation: numerical method is used to calculate the reliability function of auxiliary system Derivative calculation of instantaneous failure rate , which is used to analyze the probability trend of failures in auxiliary systems at different operating stages.

[0070] Reliability analysis is performed based on the calculation results, including importance analysis of different components and reliability analysis of the system as a whole.

[0071] In this example, a set of specific operating data is given. Based on the data collected from the auxiliary system of a converter station phase condenser for 3 years (about 26,280 hours), it is assumed that the oil-water quality failure rate =0.0001 failure / hour, the failure rates of pump body and motor are = =0.00008 failures / hour, the failure rates of the three main valves are = = =0.00005 failures / hour.

[0072] First calculate the reliability of the pump body and motor:

[0073]

[0074] Valve reliability:

[0075]

[0076] The reliability of the oil-water system is:

[0077]

[0078] For electrical control systems, assuming that the PLC failure rate =0.00006, sensor failure rate =0.00004, motor and driver failure rate =0.00007, then the reliability of the electrical control system:

[0079]

[0080] For mechanical transmission parts, based on the mechanical seal failure rate =0.00005, Mechanical lubrication failure rate =0.00004, mechanical cooling failure rate =0.00003, then the reliability of mechanical transmission components:

[0081]

[0082] For cooling and lubrication components, based on the cooler failure rate =0.00003, Lubrication device failure rate =0.00002, then the reliability of cooling and lubrication components:

[0083]

[0084] Finally, the reliability of the entire system can be obtained:

[0085]

[0086]

[0087] For reliability, calculate the system reliability after 1000 hours of operation: Calculate the reliability of each target system after 10000 hours:

[0088] Oil-water system reliability:

[0089]

[0090]

[0091] Similarly, the reliability of the electrical control system is 0.9072, the reliability of the mechanical transmission components is 0.9324, and the reliability of the cooling and lubrication components is 0.9704.

[0092] System reliability after auxiliary system runs for 10,000 hours :

[0093]

[0094] Failure rate: Approximate calculation using numerical methods, such as =100 hours, then:

[0095]

[0096] Recalculate The solution can be found by later generations.

[0097] The present invention achieves the purpose of reliability assessment of the phase modulator auxiliary system through multi-objective system selection, operation data collection, reliability model establishment, reliability index calculation and reliability analysis of the phase modulator auxiliary system. The research results can provide a scientific basis for the maintenance of the phase modulator auxiliary system, and provide a reference for equipment upgrading and transformation, ensuring that the upgraded auxiliary system can meet higher reliability requirements.

[0098] Example 2

[0099] A computer device / equipment / system comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the above method.

[0100] Example 3

[0101] A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program / instruction stored thereon, characterized in that the computer program / instruction implements the steps of the above method when executed by a processor.

[0102] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0103] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0104] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0105] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the technical principles of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be regarded as the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A multi-objective system reliability assessment method for phase-shifting auxiliary equipment, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1. Select multiple target systems in the phase condenser auxiliary system, wherein the target systems include an oil-water system, an electrical control system, a mechanical transmission component, and a cooling and lubrication component; Step 2. Obtain relevant fault information of each target system from the operation record of the phase condenser auxiliary system, wherein the fault information includes operation time, fault occurrence time and fault type data; Step 3. Establish a reliability model for each target system based on relevant fault information, and calculate the reliability of each target system and the reliability of the auxiliary system based on the reliability model of the target system; Step 4. Calculate the reliability index according to the auxiliary machine system reliability value, wherein the reliability index includes reliability and failure rate.

2. According to the multi-objective system reliability assessment method of phase-shifting auxiliary machine system of claim 1, it is characterized by: In step 3, the following steps are included: 31) Decompose each target system into multiple components and establish the target system reliability model based on the connection method of each component; 32) Analyze the collected fault information data to obtain the failure rate parameters of each component, and calculate the reliability of the corresponding target system according to the target system reliability model; 33) Multiply the reliabilities of each target system to obtain the auxiliary system reliability.

3. The reliability assessment method of a phase-modulating auxiliary machine system of a multi-objective system according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In step 31), if the components are in a series relationship, the target system reliability is the product of the reliabilities of the components; if they are in a parallel relationship, the target system reliability is calculated using the following formula: ； Among them is No. The reliability of each component, is the number of components in parallel.

4. The reliability assessment method of a phase modulator auxiliary machine system of a multi-objective system according to claim 3 is characterized in that: In the oil-water system, the oil-water system is decomposed into oil-water quality, pipelines, pumps, motors and valve components; The reliability function of the oil-water system is selected as the exponential distribution function, and the failure rate of the component is , then the reliability function of the components in the oil-water system is for: ； in is the running time, is the number of parts.

5. The reliability assessment method of a phase modulator auxiliary machine system of a multi-objective system according to claim 4 is characterized in that: Assume that the reliability of oil and water quality is The reliability of the pump body and the motor are , , valve reliability is , then the reliability of the entire oil-water system is calculated as: = × (1-(1- )×(1- )×(1- )).

6. The reliability assessment method of a phase modulator auxiliary machine system of a multi-objective system according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In the electrical control system, the PLC controller, sensor, motor and driver are considered as a series relationship. , , Establishing a Series Model to Calculate the Reliability of Electrical Control Systems : ; In mechanical transmission parts, according to the mechanical seal failure rate , Mechanical lubrication failure rate , Mechanical cooling failure rate Establishing a series model to calculate the reliability of mechanical transmission components : ； In the cooling and lubrication components, according to the cooler failure rate , Lubrication device failure rate Establishing a series model to calculate the reliability of cooling and lubrication components : 。 7. The reliability assessment method of a phase modulator auxiliary machine system of a multi-objective system according to claim 6 is characterized in that: In step 32), the reliability functions of the target systems are multiplied to obtain the auxiliary system reliability model: ； Represents the reliability function of the auxiliary system.

8. The reliability assessment method of a phase modulator auxiliary machine system of a multi-objective system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step 4, the reliability index calculation includes reliability calculation and failure rate calculation; Reliability calculation: Run time Substitute into the auxiliary system reliability function Calculate the reliability of the auxiliary system within this time; Failure rate calculation: numerical method is used to calculate the reliability function of auxiliary system Derivative calculation of instantaneous failure rate , which is used to analyze the probability trend of failures in auxiliary systems at different operating stages.

9. A computer device / equipment / system, characterized in that: The invention comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program / instruction stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program / instructions are executed by a processor, the steps of the method described in any one of claims 1-8 are implemented.

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