Regional economic connection degree quantification method based on improved gravity model

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional economy connection degree quantification method based on an improved gravitational model, and relates to the technical field of regional economy quantification, and the method comprehensively considers multi-dimensional indexes, systematically evaluates the comprehensive development quality among cities, and calculates a more comprehensive and accurate economic connection degree in combination with a traffic mode and a weighted distance. According to the method, the urban economy is dynamically reflected, and the situation that resource mismatching possibly occurs and healthy and sustainable development of regional economy integration is hindered due to an inaccurate or incomplete regional economy connection degree evaluation result is further avoided.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of regional economic quantification, and in particular to a method for quantifying regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model. Background Art

[0002] In today's era of globalization and accelerated regional economic integration, in-depth research and accurate evaluation of regional economic connections are of great significance. As an important indicator to measure the intensity and closeness of economic interactions between different regions, regional economic connections have irreplaceable theoretical and practical value for formulating scientific and reasonable regional development strategies, efficiently optimizing resource allocation, and effectively promoting regional economic integration.

[0003] Regional economic connection is a complex multi-dimensional system, covering the interaction of many aspects such as economy, society, culture, geography, etc. However, the existing calculation methods of regional economic connection have obvious limitations. At present, gross regional product (GDP) and permanent population are mostly selected as the main indicators to construct quantitative models. Although GDP reflects the economic scale and total volume of the region to a certain extent, it is impossible to deeply understand the differences in regional economic structure, the competitiveness of industries, and scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which are key factors that play an important role in shaping the attractiveness and radiation of regional economy.

[0004] The resident population indicator also has the defect of being singular; it only reflects the basic situation of the population size in the region, and fails to accurately depict the population quality structure, professional skill distribution of the labor force, dynamic trends of population mobility and other population characteristics that have an important impact on regional economic relations;

[0005] The current situation of this relatively single indicator dimension leads to the inability of existing regional economic connectivity calculation methods to fully, accurately and dynamically reflect the attractiveness and radiation of urban economies. In the process of formulating regional development strategies, if the regional economic connectivity assessment results are based on inaccurate or incomplete results, it may lead to resource mismatch, such as unreasonable infrastructure construction planning, unbalanced industrial layout and other problems, which will hinder the healthy and sustainable development of regional economic integration. At the same time, in the process of promoting regional economic cooperation and coordinated development projects, it is also difficult to accurately locate the complementary advantages and cooperation entry points between regions, which reduces the efficiency and benefits of cooperation.

[0006] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention proposes a solution. Summary of the invention

[0007] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for quantifying regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model, in order to solve the problems raised in the above background technology;

[0008] The purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0009] A method for quantifying regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model includes the following steps:

[0010] Step 1: Real-time monitoring and collection of the monitoring values ​​of the metrics of several transportation modes in several target areas and generating economic measurement data of several target areas based on the metrics;

[0011] Step 2: Calculate the economic connection between the two target areas according to the economic measurement data of the two target areas according to the preset measurement rules.

[0012] Furthermore, the measurement indicators include route mileage, average travel speed, passenger and freight volume, and several regional factors, each of which contains several comprehensive development quality evaluation indicators.

[0013] Furthermore, in step 2, the measurement rules for the regional economic relationship analysis table between two target regions are as follows:

[0014] S11: mark all target areas as A1, A2, ..., Aa, where a≥1;

[0015] S12: Select target area A1 as the standard area, and select target area A2 as the comparison area;

[0016] S13: Calculate the time distance T between the standard area and the comparison area according to the economic measurement data of the standard area and the comparison area during the collection period k :

[0017] S14: Calculate the weights ω of different transportation modes between the standard area and the comparison area k， The details are as follows: Using the formula Calculate the weights ω of different transportation modes between the standard area and the comparison area k , where q k is the passenger and freight volume of the kth mode of transportation between the standard area and the comparison area; Q k is the total volume of passenger and freight traffic between the standard area and the comparison area;

[0018] S15: Calculate and obtain the weighted distance D between the standard area and the comparison area, as follows: Use the formula D = ω1T1+ω2T2+...+ω k T k Calculate and obtain the weighted distance D between the standard area and the comparison area;

[0019] S16: Calculate and obtain the different factor scores S between the standard area and the comparison area n , as follows: Using the formula Calculate the different factor scores S between the standard area and the comparison area n , where n and m are the number of factors and the number of indicators respectively; S n and X m are factor scores and comprehensive development quality evaluation indicators, δ m is the factor score coefficient;

[0020] S17: Calculate and obtain the regional comprehensive development quality M of the standard area i , as follows: Using the formula The regional comprehensive development quality M of the standard area is calculated i , where λ n is the factor explanation rate of factor n. Similarly, the regional comprehensive development quality Mj of the comparison area can be obtained;

[0021] S18: Calculate and obtain the economic connection degree F1 between the standard area and the comparison area, as follows:

[0022] Using the formula Calculate and obtain the economic connection degree F1 between the standard area and the comparison area, where G is the gravitational constant and b is the distance attenuation coefficient;

[0023] S19: Select target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa as comparison areas in the order of target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa, and calculate the economic connection degrees F2, F3, ..., Fa-1 between target area A1 and target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa in sequence according to S13 to S18;

[0024] Generate a regional economic connection analysis table for the target area A1 according to the economic connection degrees F1, F2, ..., Fa-1;

[0025] S110: Select target areas A2, A3, ..., Aa as standard areas in sequence, and obtain a regional economic connection analysis table of the target areas A2, A3, ..., Aa according to S13 to S19.

[0026] Furthermore, regional factors include economic scale, per capita economic activity, transportation and industrial activities. Economic scale includes GDP, value added of secondary industry, total retail sales of consumer goods, permanent population and urban population; per capita economic activity includes per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of all residents and per capita consumption expenditure of all residents; transportation and industrial activities include railway passenger volume, highway passenger volume, railway freight volume, highway freight volume and power generation.

[0027] Beneficial effects of the present invention:

[0028] The present invention systematically evaluates the comprehensive development quality between cities by comprehensively considering multi-dimensional indicators, and combines transportation modes and weighted distances to calculate a more comprehensive and accurate economic connection degree, and regularly updates indicator data to dynamically update the economic connection degree. In this way, the urban economy is dynamically reflected, and the possible resource mismatch and obstacles to the healthy and sustainable development of regional economic integration caused by inaccurate or incomplete regional economic connection evaluation results are further avoided. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0029] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0030] Figure 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;

[0031] Figure 2 It is a flow chart of the method execution of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0032] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0033] like Figure 1 , Figure 2 As shown, a method for measuring regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model is implemented by executing a system for measuring regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model, the system comprising a regional monitoring terminal and a special regional assessment center;

[0034] The regional monitoring terminal is used to monitor in real time the measurement indicators of several modes of transportation in several target areas, where the modes of transportation include but are not limited to railways, light rails, buses, coaches, etc.; the measurement indicators include but are not limited to line mileage, average travel speed, passenger and freight volume, and several regional factors, each of which contains several comprehensive development quality evaluation indicators;

[0035] In this application, regional factors include but are not limited to economic scale, per capita economic activity, transportation and industrial activities. Economic scale includes GDP, added value of secondary industry, total retail sales of consumer goods, permanent population and urban population; per capita economic activity includes per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of all residents and per capita consumption expenditure of all residents; transportation and industrial activities include railway passenger volume, highway passenger volume, railway freight volume, highway freight volume and power generation;

[0036] The regional monitoring terminal includes a plurality of regional monitoring modules, one of which corresponds to monitoring a target area; the regional monitoring module is used to monitor the metrics of a plurality of traffic modes in the corresponding target area in real time and collect the monitoring values ​​thereof;

[0037] The regional monitoring module is also used to periodically generate economic measurement data of the corresponding target area based on the collected monitoring values ​​of the measurement indicators of several transportation modes in the corresponding target area, and periodically transmit the economic measurement data to the special regional evaluation center;

[0038] Specialized regional assessment centers are used to periodically analyze and calculate the regional economic connections between different target areas;

[0039] After receiving the economic measurement data of all target areas in a collection cycle, the Special Area Assessment Center obtains the economic connection between the two target areas according to the preset measurement rules. The measurement rules are as follows:

[0040] S11: mark all target areas as A1, A2, ..., Aa, where a≥1;

[0041] S12: Select target area A1 as the standard area, and select target area A2 as the comparison area;

[0042] S13: Calculate the time distance between the standard area and the comparison area according to the economic measurement data of the standard area and the comparison area during the collection period, as follows:

[0043] Using the formula Calculate the time distance T between the standard area and the comparison area k , where L k is the route mileage of the kth mode of transportation between the standard area and the comparison area, Vk is the average travel speed of the kth mode of transportation between the standard area and the comparison area;

[0044] S14: Calculate the weights ω of different transportation modes between the standard area and the comparison area k， The details are as follows: Using the formula Where q k is the passenger and freight volume of the kth mode of transportation between the standard area and the comparison area; Q k is the total volume of passenger and freight traffic between the standard area and the comparison area;

[0045] S15: Calculate and obtain the weighted distance D between the standard area and the comparison area, as follows: Use the formula D = ω1T1+ω2T2+...+ω k T k Calculate and obtain the weighted distance D1 between the standard area and the comparison area;

[0046] S16: Calculate and obtain the different factor scores Sn between the standard area and the comparison area, as follows: Using the formula Calculate and obtain the different factor scores Sn between the standard area and the comparison area, where n and m are the number of factors and the number of indicators respectively; S n and X m are factor scores and indicators respectively; δ m is the factor score coefficient;

[0047] S17: Calculate and obtain the regional comprehensive development quality M of the standard area i , as follows: Using the formula The regional comprehensive development quality M of the standard area is calculated i , where M i is the comprehensive development quality score of the standard area, λ n is the factor explanation rate of factor n. Similarly, the regional comprehensive development quality Mj of the comparison area can be obtained;

[0048] In this application, with the help of SPSS software, KMO measurement and Bartlett sphericity test were performed on the selected comprehensive development quality evaluation indicators to obtain the factor explanation rate of the corresponding factors;

[0049] S18: Calculate and obtain the economic connection degree F1 between the standard area and the comparison area, as follows:

[0050] Using the formula The economic connection degree F1 between the standard area and the comparison area is calculated and obtained, where G is the gravitational constant, which is 1 / 10000 in this embodiment; b is the distance attenuation coefficient, which is usually 2;

[0051] S19: Select target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa as comparison areas in the order of target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa, and calculate the economic connection degrees F2, F3, ..., Fa-1 between target area A1 and target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa in sequence according to S13 to S18;

[0052] Generate a regional economic connection analysis table of the target area A1 according to the economic connection degrees F1, F2, ..., Fa-1, wherein the regional economic connection analysis table includes two fields: target area and economic connection degree, wherein the target area field stores the target areas A2, A3, ..., Aa, and the economic connection degree field stores the economic connection degrees F1, F2, F3, ..., Fa-1 correspondingly;

[0053] S110: Select target areas A2, A3, ..., Aa as standard areas in sequence, and calculate according to S13 to S19 to obtain a regional economic connection analysis table for the target areas A2, A3, ..., Aa;

[0054] The special regional assessment center updates and stores the generated regional economic connection analysis table for the target regions A1, A2, ..., Aa;

[0055] For example: Lanzhou and Xi'an are selected to calculate their economic ties, and the specific data are used to illustrate as follows:

[0056] Step 1: Based on the route mileage and average travel time of different modes of transportation between Lanzhou and Xi'an, the time distance between Lanzhou and Xi'an can be calculated:

[0057] The road travel distance between Lanzhou and Xi'an is 630 kilometers, with an average travel speed of 90 kilometers per hour; the railway travel distance is 570 kilometers, with an average travel speed of 190 kilometers per hour. The calculated road travel time between Lanzhou and Xi'an is 7 hours, and the railway travel time is 3 hours;

[0058] Step 2: According to the proportion of passenger and freight volume of different modes of transportation between Lanzhou and Xi'an in the total passenger and freight volume, the weights of different modes of transportation between Lanzhou and Xi'an can be calculated:

[0059] The total passenger volume between Lanzhou and Xi'an is 20 million passengers per year, of which 4 million passengers are on highways and 16 million passengers are on railways. Substituting the above formula, the weight of highways between Lanzhou and Xi'an is 0.2, and the weight of railways is 0.8.

[0060] Step 3: Based on the weights and time distance of roads and railways between Lanzhou and Xi'an, it can be calculated that the weighted distance between Lanzhou and Xi'an is 3.8 hours:

[0061] Step 4: The economic connection between Lanzhou and Xi'an is calculated to be 109;

[0062] This embodiment selects 3 factors and 13 indicators, as shown in the following table:

[0063] Comprehensive development quality evaluation index system table

[0064]

[0065] The statistical data of various indicators of Lanzhou and Xi'an in 2023 are shown in the following table:

[0066] Inter-regional evaluation index table

[0067] index Indicator name unit Lanzhou Xi'an X1 GDP 100 million yuan 3487 12011 X2 Value Added by Secondary Industry 100 million yuan 1121 4147 X3 Total retail sales of consumer goods 100 million yuan 1796 4812 X4 Resident population 10,000 people 443 1308 X5 Urban population 10,000 people 375 1045 X6 GDP per capita Yuan 78894 92128 X7 Per capita disposable income of all residents Yuan 43512 42818 X8 Per capita consumption expenditure of all residents Yuan 28407 27414 X9 Railway passenger traffic 10,000 people 2847 7025 X10 Highway passenger traffic 10,000 people 671 644 X11 Railway freight volume 10,000 tons 2513 4023 X12 Road freight volume 10,000 tons 15831 29075 X13 Power generation 100 million kWh 181 177

[0068] Using SPSS software, KMO measurement and Bartlett sphericity test were performed on the selected indicators, and the factor score coefficients of each indicator were obtained as shown in the following table:

[0069] Table of score coefficients of each indicator factor

[0070] index Indicator name δ X1 GDP 0.12 X2 Value Added by Secondary Industry -0.08 X3 Total retail sales of consumer goods 0.14 X4 Resident population 0.13 X5 Urban population 0.19 X6 GDP per capita 0.174 X7 Per capita disposable income of all residents -0.02 X8 Per capita consumption expenditure of all residents -0.08 X9 Railway passenger traffic 0.15 X10 Highway passenger traffic -0.02 X11 Railway freight volume 0.11 X12 Road freight volume 0.18 X13 Power generation -0.04

[0071] According to the indicators and factor score coefficients of Lanzhou and Xi'an, the factor scores of Lanzhou and Xi'an are calculated as shown in the following table:

[0072] Factor score table

[0073] factor Factor Name Lanzhou Xi'an S1 Economic scale 709 2152 S2 Economic activity per capita 10585 12981 S3 Transportation and industrial activities 3532 6710

[0074] Using SPSS software, KMO measurement and Bartlett sphericity test were performed on the selected indicators, and the factor explanation rates of the three factors were 51.69%, 21.08%, and 19.25%, respectively. Substituting into the above formula, the comprehensive development quality scores of Lanzhou and Xi'an were 3278 and 5140, respectively;

[0075] In the description of the specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "example", "specific example", etc. means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representation of the above terms does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described can be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.

[0076] The above contents are merely examples and explanations of the present invention. Those skilled in the art may make various modifications or additions to the specific embodiments described or replace them in a similar manner. As long as they do not deviate from the invention or exceed the scope defined by the claims, they shall all fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0077] The above is a detailed description of an embodiment of the present invention, but the content is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and cannot be considered to limit the scope of implementation of the present invention. All equivalent changes and improvements made within the scope of the present invention should still fall within the scope of the patent coverage of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for quantifying regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Real-time monitoring and collection of the monitoring values ​​of the metrics of several transportation modes in several target areas and generating economic measurement data of several target areas based on the metrics; Step 2: Calculate the economic connection between the two target areas according to the economic measurement data of the two target areas according to the preset measurement rules.

2. The method for quantifying regional economic connections based on the improved gravity model according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Metrics include route length, average travel speed, passenger and freight volume, and several regional factors.

3. The method for quantifying regional economic connections based on the improved gravity model according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Each regional factor contains several comprehensive development quality evaluation indicators.

4. The method for quantifying regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step 2, the measurement rules for the regional economic relationship analysis table between two target regions are as follows: S11: mark all target areas as A1, A2, ..., Aa, where a≥1; S12: Select target area A1 as the standard area, and select target area A2 as the comparison area; S13: Calculate the time distance T between the standard area and the comparison area according to the economic measurement data of the standard area and the comparison area during the collection period k : S14: Calculate the weights ω of different transportation modes between the standard area and the comparison area k , as follows: The calculation formula is Where q k is the passenger and freight volume of the kth mode of transportation between the standard area and the comparison area; Q k is the total volume of passenger and freight traffic between the standard area and the comparison area; S15: Calculate and obtain the weighted distance D between the standard area and the comparison area, as follows: Use the formula D = ω1T1+ω2T2+...+ω k T k Calculate and obtain the weighted distance D between the standard area and the comparison area; S16: Calculate and obtain the different factor scores S between the standard area and the comparison area n , as follows: Using the formula Calculate the different factor scores S between the standard area and the comparison area n , where n and m are the number of factors and the number of indicators respectively, S n and X m are factor scores and comprehensive development quality evaluation indicators, δ m is the factor score coefficient; S17: Calculate and obtain the regional comprehensive development quality M of the standard area i , as follows: Using the formula The regional comprehensive development quality M of the standard area is calculated i , where λ n is the factor explanation rate of factor n. Similarly, the regional comprehensive development quality Mj of the comparison area can be obtained; S18: Calculate and obtain the economic connection degree F1 between the standard area and the comparison area, as follows: Using the formula Calculate and obtain the economic connection degree F1 between the standard area and the comparison area, where G is the gravitational constant and b is the distance attenuation coefficient; S19: Select target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa as comparison areas in the order of target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa, and calculate the economic connection degrees F2, F3, ..., Fa-1 between target area A1 and target areas A3, A4, ..., Aa in sequence according to S13 to S18; Generate a regional economic connection analysis table for the target area A1 according to the economic connection degrees F1, F2, ..., Fa-1; S110: Select target areas A2, A3, ..., Aa as standard areas in sequence, and obtain a regional economic connection analysis table of the target areas A2, A3, ..., Aa according to S13 to S19.

5. The method for quantifying regional economic connections based on the improved gravity model according to claim 4 is characterized in that: S13, using the formula Calculate the time distance T between the standard area and the comparison area k , where L k is the route mileage of the kth mode of transportation between the standard area and the comparison area, and Vk is the average travel speed of the kth mode of transportation between the standard area and the comparison area.

6. The method for quantifying regional economic connections based on the improved gravity model according to claim 4 is characterized in that: S19, the regional economic connection analysis table includes two fields: target area and economic connection degree. The target area field stores target areas A2, A3, ..., Aa, and the economic connection degree field stores economic connection degrees F1, F2, F3, ..., Fa-1 accordingly.

7. The method for quantifying regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model according to claim 4 is characterized in that: In S17, with the help of SPSS software, KMO measurement and Bartlett sphericity test were performed on the selected comprehensive development quality evaluation indicators to obtain the factor explanation rate of the corresponding factors.

8. A method for quantifying regional economic connections based on an improved gravity model according to claim 3, characterized in that: Regional factors include economic scale, per capita economic activity, transportation and industrial activities. Economic scale includes GDP, value added of the secondary industry, total retail sales of consumer goods, permanent population and urban population; per capita economic activity includes per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of all residents and per capita consumption expenditure of all residents; transportation and industrial activities include railway passenger volume, highway passenger volume, railway freight volume, highway freight volume and power generation.

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