Land-sea ecological environment planning method based on environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of simulation-optimization methods, and relates to an environment simulation and economic optimization calculation method based on industrial structure optimization. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, selecting comprehensive indexes capable of reflecting regional environment and economic development degree from a multi-dimensional perspective; 2, screening indexes representing the added values of the three industrial departments from a multi-dimensional macroscopic perspective; and step 3, the application can evaluate indexes which are not included in traditional economic values and are provided by non-markets for natural environment conditions and functional values. And 4, constructing a closely connected environment-economic response relationship, and ensuring ecological environment quality protection constraint conditions. And step 5, constructing a social economic development-ecological environment protection multi-subject coupling model for optimizing and constructing an optimal planning scheme for multi-dimensional coordination of environment and economy. The land-sea ecological environment planning method can construct a land-sea ecological environment planning scheme which not only meets the high-quality development of human social economy, but also can reasonably utilize ecological resources to maintain the stability of an ecological system on the premise of ensuring that an ecological environment protection target is achieved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of simulation-optimization methods, and relates to a method for optimizing and formulating land and sea ecological environment protection and development plans based on land and sea ecological environment and multi-dimensional macroeconomic sustainable development. Background Art

[0002] Since China's reform and opening up in 1978, the economy has made remarkable achievements while paying a huge price for ecological resources and environment. In order to alleviate the current predicament and guide the economy from high speed to high quality, it is necessary to accelerate the formation of a green development mode that coordinates social economy and natural environment, focusing on the unified balance between efficient social and economic growth and fair environmental comprehensive governance, which is also in line with the theme of sustainable development. The simulation-optimization method combines environmental quality response simulation and control scheme optimization model. By seeking balanced development of environment and economy, it optimizes the construction of land and sea ecological environment protection and development plan, in order to balance the contradiction between basic ecological environment maintenance and regional resource utilization. Although there has been a call for protecting the ecosystem while maximizing economic and social welfare, the current existing methods are still far from truly realizing the coordinated development of ecosystem protection and multi-dimensional macroeconomics.

[0003] The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) clearly states that economic analysis is needed to support water resource management and policy decisions. At present, simulation-optimization methods have been widely used in the field of land and sea ecological environment planning in order to achieve goals such as maximizing economic benefits and minimizing costs. However, traditional methods usually adopt the method of minimizing costs under a certain pollution load or maximizing water quality under cost constraints. There are defects in the evaluation system for the environment, especially the economic situation. For example, only agricultural economic benefits are considered, or a relatively single economic benefit indicator is adopted, lacking a multidimensional macro perspective. Therefore, it is urgent to further evaluate the land and sea ecological environment planning from a multi-dimensional perspective such as land use type, population and economic layout, promote the economy to move towards a high-quality development stage, and promote the sustainable development of economic prosperity and ecological environment. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the limitations of the above-mentioned existing technologies, this method deconstructs the environmental-economic development needs from a multi-dimensional macro perspective, builds a bridge between economic development and ecological environmental protection through the optimization of industrial structure and land use types, and constructs a multi-subject coupling model of social and economic development-ecological environmental protection, aiming to construct a land and sea ecological environment planning scheme that supports the multi-dimensional development of ecological and environmental benefits and economic benefits.

[0005] The land and sea ecological environment planning method based on the environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology has the following steps:

[0006] Step 1: Deconstruct the complex relationship between social and environmental interactions and human well-being, and select comprehensive indicators that can reflect the level of regional environmental and economic development from a multi-dimensional perspective.

[0007] Step 2: In terms of economic and social aspects, select indicators that can characterize the added value of the three industrial sectors from a multidimensional macro perspective.

[0008] Step 3: In terms of ecological environment, apply indicators that can evaluate the value of natural environmental conditions and functions that are not included in traditional economic values ​​and are provided by non-market sources.

[0009] Step 4: Build a closely connected environment-economy response relationship to ensure the constraints of ecological environment quality protection.

[0010] Step 5: Construct a multi-agent coupling model of social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection to optimize the optimal planning scheme for multi-dimensional coordination between environment and economy.

[0011] The step 1 specifically includes:

[0012] The conflict and contradiction between ecological environment and economic development are expressed by the growth rate of ecological service value (ESV) and gross domestic product (GDP), which can be expressed as follows:

[0013]

[0014] CEE stands for the coordination between environment and economy, ESV stands for ecosystem service value, and GDP stands for gross domestic product.

[0015] Table 1 Standard division of the degree of coordination between ecological environment and economic development in the process of land use

[0016]

[0017] The step 2 specifically includes:

[0018] The neoclassical production function can fully deconstruct the determinants of GDP, so the Cobb-Douglas production function is chosen because it has the best statistical fit to the empirical data. This production function is based on a correct understanding of the driving force of economic growth and represents a technical relationship. It expresses the output level as a function of the input level (such as labor, capital, and land). It can be used to predict the added value of the three industrial sectors. The specific expression is as follows:

[0019] Y=L 1-α ×T×K α

[0020]

[0021]

[0022] K(t+1)=I(t+1)+(1-δ(t+1))×K(t)

[0023] GT=GY-αGK-(1-α)GL

[0024] α=p×K / Y

[0025] Y is the GDP of the industrial sector; L is the labor input, where q divides the working-age population into two groups: 15-64 years old and over 65 years old; H is the education level; WAP is the working-age population; LFPR is the labor force participation rate; M is the average years of education; K is the capital stock; I is the depreciation rate, T is the total factor productivity; α is the capital-output elasticity; and p is the capital price.

[0026] Historical experience shows that with the development of the economy and society, the labor force gradually shifted from the primary industry to the secondary industry, and eventually flowed into the tertiary industry in large numbers. This shift has led to a continuous decline in the proportion of national income in the primary industry, a fluctuating decline in the proportion of the secondary industry, and a significant increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry, with the overall industrial structure tending towards service-oriented. Against the backdrop of the accelerated evolution of the world's unprecedented changes in a century, the industrial structure is increasingly transforming towards a service-oriented economy on a global scale, as reflected in the pattern of a decreasing proportion of the output value of the service industry, industry, and agriculture:

[0027] GDP(A)≤GDP(N)≤GDP(S)

[0028] S stands for service industry, N stands for industry, and A stands for agriculture.

[0029] The step three specifically includes:

[0030] Ecosystem services and the stock of natural capital that produces these services are essential to the operation of the Earth's life-support system. They contribute directly and indirectly to human welfare and constitute part of the Earth's total economic value. Relevant scholars have collected a lot of information, divided ecosystem services into 17 main categories, and comprehensively estimated the economic value of ecosystem services, providing a scientific basis for understanding and quantifying the importance of ecosystems in economic and social development. The expression is as follows:

[0031]

[0032] E1=λ×E 0i

[0033] ESV k Represents the ecological service value of different ecosystems; ESV f represents the value of different ecological services; ESV represents the total ecological service value of land; LUCC represents the land use area value of different ecosystems on land; VCkf represents the value coefficients of different ecological services of different ecosystems; h r 、p r ,q r are the sown area, average price and yield of major grain crops respectively; M is the sown area of ​​grain; λ represents the regional correction coefficient of the equivalent coefficient table; Q0 represents the national yield per unit area; Q represents the yield per unit area of ​​the study area; E1 represents the equivalent coefficient table of the study area after regional correction; E 0i Represents China's ecological service equivalence coefficient.

[0034] During the optimization process, it should be ensured that the total area covered by the six land use types does not exceed the area of ​​the study area:

[0035] A≤S

[0036] S represents the area of ​​the study area.

[0037] The step 4 specifically includes:

[0038] During the optimization process, it should be ensured that after the land and sea pollution is discharged into the sea, the pollution concentration at the sea water quality control point is less than the water quality standard of the corresponding functional area, so the constraints are set as follows:

[0039] C * ≤C S

[0040] The superscript * represents the actual pollution concentration, C S It is the preset water quality standard for the water quality control point.

[0041] In addition, in order to further deconstruct the impact of pollution reduction on the economic situation, the "Handbook of Pollution Accounting Methods and Coefficients for Emission Source Statistical Surveys" (2021) is used to convert the amount of pollution into population through the pollution coefficient. The formula is as follows:

[0042]

[0043] U is the annual average of pollutant generation (t); WAP is the number of working people (10,000 people); r is the intensity of pollutant generation (g / person / day). It is then used in the Cobb-Douglas production function in step 2, which can achieve a deep link between environmental change and economic response.

[0044] The step five specifically includes:

[0045] Based on the industrial structure and land use types, the core relationship between environment and economy is constructed. The objective function is to pursue the maximization of high-quality economic development without sacrificing the elasticity of the ecological environment. The development laws of the industrial structure and the total planned area of ​​relevant land use types are used as constraints. A multi-subject coupling model of social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection is established. Mathematical methods such as optimization are applied to optimize the construction of the land and sea ecological and environmental planning of the study area.

[0046] Compared with the related existing technologies, the advantages of this method are:

[0047] A simulation-optimization method has been constructed based on multi-angle deconstruction of the relationship between society and environment, which covers the economic value of social and economic systems and natural ecosystems. This method can construct a land and sea ecological environment planning scheme that can not only meet the high-quality development of human social economy but also rationally utilize ecological resources to maintain the stability of the ecosystem, while ensuring the achievement of ecological and environmental protection goals. This method provides important support for promoting economic prosperity and sustainable development of the ecological environment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] Figure 1 To build a multi-agent coupling model for social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection;

[0049] Figure 2 To optimize the calculation flow chart;

[0050] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the ecological environment planning scheme;

[0051] Figure 4 This is an environmental-economic benefit diagram. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0052] The method is described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific application cases. This case is an application example of the method, and provides a detailed application and a specific operation process, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited to the following case.

[0053] The following case study area is the Bohai Rim Economic Zone. The environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology is applied to construct a multi-agent coupling model of Bohai's social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection to ensure that the industrial structure of the Bohai Rim Economic Zone is upgraded and the economic benefits are maximized while environmental goals are achieved.

[0054] In this case, a simulation-optimization calculation method based on the environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology was constructed. The steps are as follows:

[0055] Step 1: Deconstruct the complex relationship between social and environmental interactions and human well-being, and select comprehensive indicators that can reflect the level of regional environmental and economic development from a multi-dimensional perspective.

[0056] Step 2: In terms of economic and social aspects, select indicators that can characterize the added value of the three industrial sectors from a multidimensional macro perspective.

[0057] Step 3: In terms of ecological environment, apply indicators that can evaluate the value of natural environmental conditions and functions that are not included in traditional economic values ​​and are provided by non-market sources.

[0058] Step 4: Build a closely connected environment-economy response relationship to ensure the constraints of ecological environment quality protection.

[0059] Step 5: Construct a multi-agent coupling model of social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection to optimize the optimal planning scheme for multi-dimensional coordination between environment and economy.

[0060] Furthermore, the above step 1 specifically includes:

[0061] The Bohai Rim Economic Zone covers three provinces (Liaoning, Shandong and Hebei) and two municipalities (Beijing and Tianjin). Land pollution is mainly discharged into the Bohai Sea through 43 rivers and 79 sewage treatment plant outlets. Taking into account the land use types, rivers, sewage catchment distribution characteristics and administrative boundaries in the Bohai Rim region, the Bohai Rim region is divided into 4249 pollution source areas (hereinafter referred to as "source areas"), as shown in Figure (3). Taking 2020 as the base year, the multi-agent coupling model of social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection is used for optimization calculation. During the optimization process, we strive to increase CEE, GDP and ESV to avoid situations where local economic development is at the expense of the ecological environment or where excessive protection of the ecological environment leads to economic development stagnation. The specific formula is as follows:

[0062]

[0063] CEE represents the coordination between environment and economy, ESV represents ecosystem service value, GDP represents gross domestic product; i represents 4249 source areas in the Bohai Rim Economic Zone; # represents the optimized value.

[0064] The ratio of ESV and GDP growth rate is used to determine the local environment-economy coordination, which is divided into four scenarios, as shown in Table 1.

[0065] Furthermore, the above step 2 specifically includes:

[0066] The Cobb-Douglas production function is used to study the technological progress, capital and labor input of 4249 source areas. The specific formula is as follows:

[0067] Y(t,p,i)=L(t,p,i) 1-α(t,p,i) ×T (t,p,i) ×K(t,p,i) α(t,p,i)

[0068]

[0069] K(t+1)=I(t+1)+(1-δ(t+1))×K(t)

[0070] GT=GY-αGK-(1-α)GL

[0071] α=p×K / Y

[0072] i represents agriculture, industry, and services, p represents a source area, and t represents the year 2020; Y is the GDP in 2020, L is the labor input, where q divides the working-age population into two groups: 15-64 years old and over 65 years old, H represents the education level, R represents the working-age population, W represents the labor participation rate, M represents the average years of education, K is the capital stock, T represents the total factor productivity, α represents the capital-output elasticity, and p represents the capital price, which is set to 0.12.

[0073] Among them, in order to quantify the capital stock K in 2020, the depreciation rates of fixed investment and capital stock from 2000 to 2020 were collected. The depreciation rates from 2000 to 2020 were derived from the declining balance depreciation method; the total factor productivity in 2020 was calculated by the 2020 GDP, capital stock and labor input.

[0074] Since the reform and opening up, China has gradually transitioned from an early agricultural country to an industrial country, and is currently transforming into a service-oriented country. Therefore, the proportion of agricultural, industrial and service output values ​​decreases in the order of service industry, industry and agriculture:

[0075]

[0076] S stands for service industry, N stands for industry, A stands for agriculture, and c stands for city.

[0077] Furthermore, the above step three specifically includes:

[0078] Based on the table of ecosystem service equivalent coefficients in China, the average grain output value of farmland in China was adjusted to the average grain output value of farmland in the Bohai Rim Economic Zone, and the regional correction coefficient λ was 1.09, and the equivalent coefficient E1 of the Bohai Rim region was obtained (as shown in Table 2). Then, based on the average net profit per unit area of ​​the three major grains (rice, wheat and corn) from 2015 to 2020, the standard equivalent factor VC was determined, and its value was 2110.580 yuan / hectare. Based on the above parameters, the ESV of 4249 source areas in 2020 can be calculated and optimized as the initial value of the model.

[0079]

[0080]

[0081] E1=λ×E 0i

[0082] ESV k Represents the ecological service value of different ecosystems; ESV f represents the value of different ecological services; ESV represents the total ecological service value of land. LUCC represents the land use area value of different ecosystems on land; VC kf represents the value coefficients of different ecological services of different ecosystems; h r 、p r ,q r They are the sown area, average price and yield of the three major grain crops, wheat, corn and rice; M is the sown area of ​​grain; λ represents the regional correction coefficient of the equivalent coefficient table; Q0 represents the national yield per unit area; Q represents the yield per unit area of ​​the study area; E1 represents the equivalent coefficient table of the study area after regional correction; E 0i Represents China's ecological service equivalence coefficient.

[0083] Table 2 Ecosystem service equivalent coefficients of the Bohai Economic Zone

[0084]

[0085] During the optimization process, it should be ensured that the total area covered by the six land use types does not exceed the area occupied by the source area:

[0086]

[0087] S represents the area occupied by each source region.

[0088] Furthermore, the above step 4 specifically includes:

[0089] During the optimization process, it should be ensured that after the land and sea pollution is discharged into the sea, the actual pollution concentration at the sea water quality control point is less than the water quality control standard of the corresponding functional area, so the constraints are set as follows:

[0090]

[0091] The superscript * represents the actual pollution concentration, C S is the preset water quality standard of the water quality control point, and k is the number of the water quality control point.

[0092] In addition, in order to further deconstruct the impact of pollution reduction on the economic situation, the "Handbook of Pollution Accounting Methods and Coefficients for Emission Source Statistical Surveys" (2021) is used to convert the amount of pollution into population through the pollution coefficient. The formula is as follows:

[0093]

[0094] U is the annual average of pollutant generation (t); WAP is the number of working people (10,000 people); r is the intensity of pollutant generation (g / person / day). It is then used in the Cobb-Douglas production function in step 2, which can achieve a deep link between environmental change and economic response.

[0095] Furthermore, the above step 5 specifically includes:

[0096] The framework of the multi-agent coupling model of social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection is shown in Figure (1). The model describes the transport process of pollution in land and sea respectively through river basin and sea area models. The river basin model calculates the final discharge of river basin pollution into the sea by simulating the emission and transport process of different pollution sources (areas); the sea area model simulates the response of water quality in the polluted sea area under different land and sea pollution emissions. The multidimensional macroeconomic model is coupled with the river basin and sea area environmental water quality model. Through the optimization allocation model, the pollution emission scenario, emission reduction measure scenario, industrial structure scenario and land type pattern scenario are continuously and automatically searched and constructed in a certain constraint space. The scenario is input into the water quality model to simulate the environmental response of the receiving water body and the economic model to simulate the economic response of the source area until the environmental and economic goals are achieved, and the optimization process is ended. The optimization calculation process diagram is shown in Figure (2).

[0097] Based on the multi-agent coupling model of multi-dimensional deconstruction of environment, economy and technology, the land and sea ecological environment planning schemes optimized for 4249 source areas in the Bohai Rim are shown in Table 3 and Figure (3):

[0098] Table 3 Pollution prevention and control planning schemes in the Bohai Economic Zone

[0099]

[0100] (Note: The overpressure rate is defined as the ratio of the difference between the regional status and the optimized value to the optimized value to identify the status of each source area. When the overpressure rate is less than -30%, the source area is identified as a low-pressure source area, indicating that the governance effect is good and can be further developed appropriately; when the overpressure rate is between -30% and 30%, the source area is identified as a flat-pressure source area, which means that the source area can remain as it is; when the overpressure rate is greater than 30%, the source area is identified as an overpressure source area, which means that the source area needs further governance.)

[0101] Table 4 Changes in the growth rate of environmental-economic benefits in cities around the Bohai Sea

[0102]

[0103]

[0104] Under the implementation of the optimized Bohai Sea Land and Sea Ecological Environment Planning Scheme, the economic benefits of the Bohai Sea Rim region are shown in Figure (4) and Table 4. From the perspective of GDP, after environmental improvement, the economic development of 722 source areas has improved, and the economy of 580 source areas has declined, and there is still a lot of room for improvement; from the perspective of ESV, after environmental improvement, the value of natural resources in 1085 source areas has increased, and only the value of natural resources in 267 source areas has decreased. These source areas need to consider strengthening the intensity of environmental governance; from the perspective of coordinated development of the human social system and the natural ecosystem, 23 cities are in a coordinated state, and the ecological environment and economic development are developing in a positive trend. 9 cities are in an improved state. Although the market economy has declined, the ecological resources have increased. 3 cities are in an unbalanced state, and economic development has sacrificed the environment. Only 1 city is in a bad state, and the environment and economic development are unbalanced.

[0105] To sum up, with the implementation of the optimized Bohai Rim ecological and environmental planning scheme, it is expected that both environmental governance and economic development in the Bohai Rim region will be improved, and the overall ecological environment will continue to improve and the economy will move towards high-quality development.

[0106] The above cases only express the implementation methods of the present invention, but they cannot be understood as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, several modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the concept of the present invention, which all belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. The land and sea ecological environment planning method based on the environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology is characterized by: Here are the steps: Step 1: Deconstruct the relationship between social and environmental interactions and human well-being, and select comprehensive indicators that can reflect the degree of regional environmental and economic development from a multi-dimensional perspective; The step 1 specifically includes: The conflict and contradiction between ecological environment and economic development are expressed by the growth rate of ecological service value (ESV) and gross domestic product (GDP), which can be expressed as follows: CEE stands for the coordination between environment and economy, ESV stands for ecosystem service value, and GDP stands for gross domestic product; Step 2: In terms of economic and social aspects, select indicators that characterize the added value of the three industrial sectors from a multidimensional macro perspective; Step 3: In terms of ecological environment, apply indicators that can assess the value of natural environmental conditions and functions that are not included in traditional economic values ​​and are provided by non-market sources; Step 4: Build a closely connected environmental-economic response relationship to ensure the constraints of ecological environmental quality protection; Step 5: Construct a multi-agent coupling model of social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection to optimize the optimal planning scheme for multi-dimensional coordination between environment and economy.

2. The land and sea ecological environment planning method based on the environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that: The specific expression of step 2 is as follows: Y=L 1-α ×T×K α K(t+1)=I(t+1)+(1-δ(t+1))×K(t) GT=GY-αGK-(1-α)GL α=p×K / Y Y is the GDP of the industrial sector; L is the labor input, where q divides the working-age population into two groups: 15-64 years old and over 65 years old; H is the education level; WAP is the working-age population; LFPR is the labor force participation rate; M is the average years of education; K is the capital stock; I is the depreciation rate, T is the total factor productivity; α is the capital output elasticity; p is the capital price; Globally, the industrial structure is increasingly transforming towards a service-oriented economy, with the output value of services, industry and agriculture decreasing in descending order: GDP(A)≤GDP(N)≤GDP(S) S stands for service industry, N stands for industry, and A stands for agriculture.

3. The land and sea ecological environment planning method based on the environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that: The step three specifically includes: The economic value of ecosystem services can be estimated based on 17 categories of ecosystem services, as follows: E1=λ×E 0i ESV k Represents the ecological service value of different ecosystems; ESV f represents the value of different ecological services; ESV represents the total ecological service value of land; LUCC represents the land use area value of different ecosystems on land; VC kf represents the value coefficients of different ecological services of different ecosystems; h r 、p r ,q r are the sown area, average price and yield of major grain crops respectively; M is the sown area of ​​grain; λ represents the regional correction coefficient of the equivalent coefficient table; Q0 represents the national yield per unit area; Q represents the yield per unit area of ​​the study area; E1 represents the equivalent coefficient table of the study area after regional correction; E 0i represents the ecological service equivalence coefficient of China; During the optimization process, it should be ensured that the total area covered by the six land use types does not exceed the area of ​​the study area: A≤S S represents the area of ​​the study area.

4. The land and sea ecological environment planning method based on the environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology as claimed in claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: The step 4 specifically includes: During the optimization process, it should be ensured that after the land and sea pollution is discharged into the sea, the pollution concentration at the sea water quality control point is less than the water quality standard of the corresponding functional area, so the constraints are set as follows: C * ≤C S The superscript * represents the actual pollution concentration, C S It is the preset water quality standard of the water quality control point; The pollution amount is converted into population through the pollution coefficient, the formula is as follows: U is the annual average of pollutant generation (t); WAP is the number of working population (10,000 people); r is the intensity of pollutant generation (g / person / day).

5. The land and sea ecological environment planning method based on the environment-economy multi-dimensional deconstruction technology as claimed in claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: The step five specifically includes: Based on the industrial structure and land use types, the core relationship between environment and economy is constructed. The objective function is to pursue the maximization of high-quality economic development without sacrificing the elasticity of the ecological environment. Taking the development laws of the industrial structure and the total planned area of ​​relevant land use types as constraints, a multi-subject coupling model of social and economic development and ecological and environmental protection is established. The optimization method is applied to optimize the construction of the land and sea ecological and environmental planning of the study area.

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