Method and system for determining minimum coal-electricity installation scale based on monthly electricity balance

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for determining the minimum coal-electricity installation scale based on monthly electricity balance, and belongs to the technical field of power systems. Comprising the following steps: collecting annual planning prediction data of a researched area; extracting a monthly electric quantity distribution coefficient by combining the planned annual prediction data of the researched area with historical actual operation data, and distributing the planned annual prediction data of the researched area according to the monthly electric quantity distribution coefficient to obtain the planned annual power grid monthly load electric quantity of the researched area and the planned annual power grid monthly renewable energy electric quantity of the researched area; monthly electric quantity balance analysis is carried out on the planned annual power grid renewable energy electric quantity of the researched area and the planned annual power grid monthly load electric quantity of the researched area, and an electric quantity balance result is obtained; and according to the electric quantity balance result, considering the power scale, and determining the minimum installation scale of the planned annual coal power in the researched area.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and in particular relates to a method and system for determining a minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance. Background Art

[0002] As a source of carbon emissions and an important support for the electrification of the terminal sector, the power sector needs to shift from coal-based power to a new power system with a high proportion of renewable energy and multiple energy forms complementing each other. At the same time, coal-fired power is still the largest supporting power source for the flexibility and power generation of the power system in the near and medium term. Before new energy safely and reliably becomes the main power source of the new power system, coal-fired power will continue to play the role of "ballast stone" and "pillar" of energy and power security. Therefore, it is necessary to make a reasonable analysis and prediction of the minimum installed capacity of thermal power in the context of "carbon neutrality" in the long term. The scale of new energy has ushered in rapid growth, but the development space of coal-fired power has been limited for a time. It is necessary to make a reasonable prediction of the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the prospect year. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the problem that it is impossible to reasonably predict the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in a prospective year, and propose a method and system for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance.

[0004] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme: In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance, comprising the following steps: 1) Collect annual planning forecast data for the studied area; 2) The planned annual forecast data of the studied area is combined with the historical actual operation data to extract the monthly electricity distribution coefficient. The planned annual forecast data of the studied area is distributed according to the monthly electricity distribution coefficient to obtain the monthly load electricity of the planned annual power grid and the monthly renewable energy electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area; 3) Conduct monthly power balance analysis on the planned annual renewable energy power of the power grid in the studied area and the planned annual monthly load power of the power grid in the studied area to obtain the power balance results; 4) Based on the electricity balance results and taking into account the power supply scale, determine the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area.

[0005] Furthermore, in step 1), the annual forecast data for the planned study area includes: electricity demand forecast value, wind power installed capacity forecast value, photovoltaic installed capacity forecast value, wind power annual utilization hours forecast value, photovoltaic annual utilization hours forecast value and power abandonment rate forecast value.

[0006] Furthermore, in step 2), the monthly load distribution of the planned annual power grid in the studied area is:

[0007] in, For load Monthly electricity consumption, The annual power consumption of the load, is the monthly load distribution coefficient.

[0008] Furthermore, in step 2), the monthly renewable energy power generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area includes the monthly hydropower generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area and the monthly new energy power generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area.

[0009] Furthermore, the planned monthly hydropower generation of the grid in the studied area is:

[0010] in, For hydropower Monthly power generation, The annual hydroelectric power generation, is the monthly hydropower electricity distribution coefficient.

[0011] Furthermore, the planned monthly renewable energy power generation of the power grid in the studied area is:

[0012] in, For new energy Monthly power generation, The theoretical annual power generation of new energy. is the monthly electricity distribution coefficient of new energy, For new energy Monthly power abandonment rate.

[0013] Furthermore, the planned annual power grid renewable energy power generation in the study area on a monthly basis includes the planned annual power grid wind power generation in the study area on a monthly basis and the planned annual power grid photovoltaic power generation in the study area on a monthly basis.

[0014] Furthermore, in step 3), the monthly power balance analysis is as follows:

[0015] In the formula, is the electricity profit and loss in the i-th month, is the load power in the ith month, is the wind power generation in month i, is the photovoltaic power generation in the i-th month, is the hydropower generation in month i.

[0016] Furthermore, in step 4), the calculation formula for the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area is:

[0017] in, is the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power. is the total electricity deficit for the whole year. is the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the power shortage month, The power shortage in the month with the largest power shortage in the whole year. is the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the month with the greatest power shortage in the whole year, For gas-fired power and biomass installation.

[0018] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a system for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance, comprising: Data collection module, used to collect annual forecast data for the planned area under study; The monthly electricity distribution module is used to combine the planned annual forecast data of the studied area with the historical actual operation data, extract the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, distribute the planned annual forecast data of the studied area according to the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, and obtain the monthly load electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area and the monthly renewable energy electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area; The power balance module is used to perform monthly power balance analysis on the planned annual power grid renewable energy power and the planned annual power grid load power in the studied area to obtain the power balance result; The installed capacity planning module is used to determine the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area based on the power balance results and taking into account the power supply scale.

[0019] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial technical effects: The present invention proposes a method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance. First, the planned annual load, new energy installed capacity and characteristic prediction results of the studied area are collected. Subsequently, the monthly electricity distribution coefficient is extracted in combination with the historical actual operation data, and the monthly load electricity and renewable energy electricity of the planned year are allocated. In addition, a monthly electricity balance analysis is carried out on the renewable energy and electricity demand of the power grid in the studied area in the planned year. Finally, based on the electricity balance results, the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the studied area in the planned year is determined after comprehensively considering the progress of energy storage technology and the scale of other thermal power sources. The method of the present invention can be used to calculate the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the prospective year, which can provide methodological guidance for the transformation of a high-proportion new energy power system and provide a reference for energy transformation. The method of the present invention determines the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on the monthly electricity balance analysis, which can be flexibly applied to the power planning research of the power grid. Compared with the traditional production simulation method, the calculation efficiency is improved. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0020] The drawings described herein are for explanation purposes only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention in any way. In addition, the shapes and proportional dimensions of the components in the drawings are only for illustration purposes to help understand the present invention, and are not intended to specifically limit the shapes and proportional dimensions of the components of the present invention. In the drawings: Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of a method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance.

[0021] Figure 2 The present invention is a structural diagram of a system for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance.

[0022] Figure 3 This is an electronic device diagram of a method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to the present invention.

[0023] Figure 4 This is the monthly electricity profit and loss situation of a regional power grid in 2060 in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0024] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the scheme of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0025] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as those commonly understood by those skilled in the art to which the present invention belongs. The terms used herein in the specification of the present invention are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. The term "and / or" used herein includes any and all combinations of one or more of the related listed items.

[0026] It should be noted that the terms "first", "second", etc. in the specification and claims of the present invention and the above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects, and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that the data used in this way can be interchanged where appropriate, so that the embodiments of the present invention described herein can be implemented in an order other than those illustrated or described herein. In addition, the terms "including" and "having" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions, for example, a process, method, system, product or device that includes a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units that are clearly listed, but may include other steps or units that are not clearly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products or devices.

[0027] Embodiment 1 See also Figure 1 A method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance comprises the following steps: 1) Collect annual planning forecast data for the studied area; In step 1), the annual forecast data for the planned area under study include: electricity demand forecast value, wind power installed capacity forecast value, photovoltaic installed capacity forecast value, wind power annual utilization hours forecast value, photovoltaic annual utilization hours forecast value and power abandonment rate forecast value.

[0028] 2) The planned annual forecast data of the studied area is combined with the historical actual operation data to extract the monthly electricity distribution coefficient. The planned annual forecast data of the studied area is distributed according to the monthly electricity distribution coefficient to obtain the monthly load electricity of the planned annual power grid and the monthly renewable energy electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area; In step 2), the monthly load distribution of the planned annual power grid in the studied area is:

[0029] in, For load Monthly electricity consumption, The annual power consumption of the load, is the monthly load distribution coefficient.

[0030] In step 2), the monthly renewable energy power generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area includes the monthly hydropower generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area and the monthly new energy power generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area.

[0031] The planned monthly hydropower generation of the power grid in the studied area is:

[0032] in, For hydropower Monthly power generation, The annual hydroelectric power generation, is the monthly hydropower electricity distribution coefficient.

[0033] The planned monthly renewable energy power generation of the power grid in the studied area is:

[0034] in, For new energy Monthly power generation, The theoretical annual power generation of new energy. is the monthly electricity distribution coefficient of new energy, For new energy Monthly power abandonment rate.

[0035] The monthly renewable energy power generation in the planned power grid of the study area includes the monthly wind power generation in the planned power grid of the study area and the monthly photovoltaic power generation in the planned power grid of the study area.

[0036] 3) Conduct monthly power balance analysis on the planned annual renewable energy power of the power grid in the studied area and the planned annual monthly load power of the power grid in the studied area to obtain the power balance results; In step 3), the monthly power balance analysis is:

[0037] In the formula, is the electricity profit and loss in the i-th month, is the load power in the ith month, is the wind power generation in month i, is the photovoltaic power generation in the i-th month, is the hydropower generation in month i.

[0038] 4) Based on the electricity balance results and taking into account the power supply scale, determine the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area.

[0039] In step 4), the calculation formula for the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area is:

[0040] in, is the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power. is the total electricity deficit for the whole year. is the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the power shortage month, The power shortage in the month with the largest power shortage in the whole year. is the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the month with the greatest power shortage in the whole year, For gas-fired power and biomass installation.

[0041] Embodiment 2 See also Figure 2 , a system for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance, comprising: Data collection module, used to collect annual forecast data for the planned area under study; The monthly electricity distribution module is used to combine the planned annual forecast data of the studied area with the historical actual operation data, extract the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, distribute the planned annual forecast data of the studied area according to the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, and obtain the monthly load electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area and the monthly renewable energy electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area; The power balance module is used to perform monthly power balance analysis on the planned annual power grid renewable energy power and the planned annual power grid load power in the studied area to obtain the power balance result; The installed capacity planning module is used to determine the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area based on the power balance results and taking into account the power supply scale.

[0042] Embodiment 3 A method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance comprises the following steps: 1) Collect data such as the predicted value of the total social electricity demand in the planned year, the predicted value of wind power installed capacity, the predicted value of photovoltaic installed capacity, the predicted value of annual wind power utilization hours, the predicted value of annual photovoltaic utilization hours and the predicted value of power abandonment rate in the studied area; 2) Combined with historical actual operation data, the monthly electricity distribution coefficient is extracted, and the monthly load electricity and renewable energy electricity of the planned year are obtained according to this distribution; 3) Conduct monthly power balance analysis on renewable energy and power demand in the regional power grid under study in the planning year; 4) Based on the electricity balance results, taking into account the progress of energy storage technology and the scale of other thermal power sources, determine the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the studied area in the planning year.

[0043] This embodiment takes the coal-fired power of a certain regional power grid in 2060 as an example, and uses a method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance to calculate the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in a certain regional power grid in 2060. The specific operation steps are as follows: (1) Collect data such as the predicted value of the total social electricity demand in the planned year, the predicted value of wind power installed capacity, the predicted value of photovoltaic installed capacity, the predicted value of annual wind power utilization hours, the predicted value of annual photovoltaic utilization hours and the predicted value of power abandonment rate in the studied area.

[0044] In 2060, the electricity demand of a certain country is predicted to be 17 trillion kWh, with 2.1 billion kW of wind power installed and 3.9 billion kW of solar power installed. In the past five years, the total electricity consumption of a certain region's power grid accounted for about 11% of the country's total, as shown in Table 1.

[0045] Table 1 The proportion of total electricity consumption in a certain region to that of a certain country Unit: billion kWh

[0046] Taking into account the country's industrial transfer to the region and its economic development stage, it is predicted that in 2060 the region's total electricity consumption will account for about 15% of the country's total electricity consumption, reaching 2.55 trillion kWh.

[0047] At present, the installed capacity of wind power and solar power for domestic use in a certain region accounts for less than 20% (about 19%) of the country. It is predicted that by 2060, the installed capacity of wind power and solar power for domestic use in a certain region will account for 25% of the country, that is, 525 million kilowatts of wind power and 975 million kilowatts of solar power. The annual utilization hours of wind power are considered to be 2,300 hours and 1,600 hours of solar power. The power abandonment rate is considered to be 10%, and the annual electricity is basically balanced with a slight surplus.

[0048] (2) Based on the historical actual operation data, the monthly electricity distribution coefficient is extracted, and the monthly load electricity and renewable energy electricity of the planned year are obtained based on this distribution.

[0049] Statistical analysis of monthly characteristics of load and renewable energy. Based on the characteristic data, the annual electricity consumption is decomposed into monthly, and the monthly electricity consumption of load and renewable energy is obtained. The details are as follows: a) The load power should be combined with the historical actual operation data to statistically extract the monthly power distribution coefficient, and the monthly load power can be obtained based on this distribution.

[0050] (1) In the formula, For load Monthly electricity consumption, The annual power consumption of the load, is the monthly load distribution coefficient.

[0051] b) Hydropower electricity consumption should adopt the multi-year average monthly electricity distribution.

[0052] (2) In the formula, For hydropower Monthly power generation, The annual hydroelectric power generation, is the monthly hydropower electricity distribution coefficient.

[0053] c) The amount of new energy electricity should be combined with historical actual operation data to statistically extract the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, and the monthly new energy power generation should be obtained based on this distribution.

[0054] (3) In the formula, For new energy (wind and solar) Monthly power generation, The theoretical annual power generation of new energy. is the monthly electricity distribution coefficient of new energy, For new energy Monthly power abandonment rate.

[0055] In this embodiment, the monthly electricity coefficient and electricity distribution of the power grid load and renewable energy in a certain region in 2060 are shown in Table 2.

[0056] Table 2 Monthly electricity coefficient and electricity distribution of power grid load and renewable energy in a certain region in 2060

[0057] (3) Conduct monthly electricity balance analysis on renewable energy and electricity demand in the regional power grid during the planning year.

[0058] The monthly balance between renewable energy and electricity consumption can be calculated using the following formula: (4) In the formula, is the electricity profit and loss in the i-th month, is the load power in the ith month, is the wind power generation in month i, is the photovoltaic power generation in the i-th month, is the hydropower generation in month i.

[0059] Due to the mismatch between the seasonal distribution of renewable energy and load, there are seasonal power shortages and seasonal power shortages. The monthly balance analysis of renewable energy and electricity demand in a certain area in 2060 is shown in Table 3 and Figure 4 The results show that there is a seasonal power shortage in a certain area's power grid in January and October to December, with a power shortage of 124.2 billion kWh.

[0060] Table 3 Monthly balance analysis results of renewable energy and electricity demand in a certain region in 2060

[0061] (4) Based on the electricity balance results, taking into account the progress of energy storage technology and the scale of other thermal power sources, the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the study area in the planning year is determined.

[0062] Considering the progress of energy storage technology, it can solve the problem of moving electricity between days and within days. It is conservatively estimated that there has been no breakthrough in cross-month energy storage, and seasonal power shortages need to be solved by clean thermal power. The minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the studied area in the planning year can be calculated using the following formula:

[0063] In the formula, is the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power. is the total electricity deficit for the whole year. is the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the power shortage month, The power shortage in the month with the largest power shortage in the whole year. is the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the month with the greatest power shortage in the whole year, For gas-fired power and biomass installation.

[0064] From Table 3 and Figure 4 It can be seen that there is a seasonal power shortage in a certain area's power grid in January and October to December, with a power shortage of 124.2 billion kWh. If the daily utilization hours of thermal power are 15 to 18 hours (about 2,000 hours a year) during the four months of power shortage, 60 to 70 million kilowatts of thermal power generation is required; if the power balance analysis is based on the control month (December), about 100 million kilowatts of thermal power generation is required. Taking the larger value of the above two, a certain area's power grid will still need 100 million kilowatts of thermal power generation in 2060. Taking into account some gas-fired and biomass power generation units (about 20 million kilowatts), a certain area's power grid needs to deploy CCS with a coal-fired power generation capacity of about 80 million kilowatts or more. It should be noted that this thermal power scale is only based on the perspective of power balance in the system. If other requirements such as system safety and stability and inertia support are considered, the scale of thermal power may increase.

[0065] Many embodiments and many applications beyond the examples provided will be apparent to those skilled in the art upon reading the above description. Therefore, the scope of the present teachings should not be determined with reference to the above description, but rather with reference to the preceding claims and the full scope of equivalents to which such claims are entitled. For the purpose of comprehensiveness, all articles and references, including disclosures of patent applications and publications, are incorporated herein by reference. The omission of any aspect of the subject matter disclosed herein in the preceding claims is not intended to be a disclaimer of such subject matter, nor should it be considered that the applicants did not consider such subject matter to be part of the disclosed inventive subject matter.

[0066] The above content is a further detailed description of the present invention. It cannot be determined that the specific implementation methods of the present invention are limited to these. For ordinary technicians in the technical field to which the present invention belongs, they can make several simple deductions or substitutions without departing from the concept of the present invention, which should be regarded as belonging to the protection scope of the present invention determined by the submission.

Claims

1. A method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: 1) Collect annual planning forecast data for the studied area; 2) Combine the planned annual forecast data of the studied area with the historical actual operation data, extract the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, distribute the planned annual forecast data of the studied area according to the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, and obtain the monthly load electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area and the monthly renewable energy electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area; 3) Conduct monthly power balance analysis on the planned annual renewable energy power of the power grid in the studied area and the planned annual monthly load power of the power grid in the studied area to obtain the power balance results; 4) Based on the electricity balance results and taking into account the power supply scale, determine the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area.

2. The method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 1), the annual forecast data for the planned area under study include: electricity demand forecast value, wind power installed capacity forecast value, photovoltaic installed capacity forecast value, wind power annual utilization hours forecast value, photovoltaic annual utilization hours forecast value and power abandonment rate forecast value.

3. The method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In step 2), the monthly load distribution of the planned annual power grid in the studied area is: in, For load Monthly electricity consumption, The annual power consumption of the load, is the monthly load distribution coefficient.

4. The method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to claim 3 is characterized in that: In step 2), the monthly renewable energy power generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area includes the monthly hydropower generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area and the monthly new energy power generation of the planned annual power grid in the studied area.

5. The method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to claim 4, characterized in that: The planned monthly hydropower generation of the power grid in the studied area is: in, For hydropower Monthly power generation, The annual hydroelectric power generation is the monthly hydropower electricity distribution coefficient.

6. The method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to claim 5, characterized in that: The planned monthly renewable energy power generation of the power grid in the studied area is: in, For new energy Monthly power generation, The theoretical annual power generation of new energy. is the monthly electricity distribution coefficient of new energy, For new energy Monthly power abandonment rate.

7. The method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to claim 6, characterized in that: The monthly renewable energy power generation in the planned power grid of the study area includes the monthly wind power generation in the planned power grid of the study area and the monthly photovoltaic power generation in the planned power grid of the study area.

8. The method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to claim 7, characterized in that: In step 3), the monthly power balance analysis is: In the formula, is the electricity profit and loss in the i-th month, is the load power in the ith month, is the wind power generation in month i, is the photovoltaic power generation in the i-th month, is the hydropower generation in month i.

9. The method for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 4), the calculation formula for the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area is: in, is the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power. is the total electricity deficit for the whole year. is the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the power shortage month, The power shortage in the month with the largest power shortage in the whole year. is the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the month with the greatest power shortage in the whole year, For gas-fired power and biomass installation.

10. A system for determining the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power based on monthly electricity balance, characterized in that: include: Data collection module, used to collect annual forecast data for the planned area under study; The monthly electricity distribution module is used to combine the planned annual forecast data of the studied area with the historical actual operation data, extract the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, distribute the planned annual forecast data of the studied area according to the monthly electricity distribution coefficient, and obtain the monthly load electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area and the monthly renewable energy electricity of the planned annual power grid of the studied area; The power balance module is used to perform monthly power balance analysis on the planned annual power grid renewable energy power and the planned annual power grid load power in the studied area to obtain the power balance result; The installed capacity planning module is used to determine the minimum installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year in the studied area based on the power balance results and taking into account the power supply scale.

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