Estimation method and system for planning annual coal and electricity income

By collecting and analyzing annual planning data, the decomposition and calculation of coal-fired power income is solved, and the problem of difficult calculating coal-fired power income and cost is achieved is effectively evaluated.

CN119904145APending Publication Date: 2025-04-29NORTHWEST BRANCH OF STATE GRID POWER GRID CO +1
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202510004239.4
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-01-02
Publication Date
2025-04-29

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The existing technology is difficult to effectively calculate the benefits and costs of coal-fired power, which affects the survival problems of coal-fired power in power system planning.

Method used

A method for estimating annual coal-fired power income is proposed. By collecting annual planning data, performing production simulation and supply guarantee analysis, counting the electricity volume during the period, calculating the electricity volume, capacity compensation income and auxiliary service income, and comprehensively calculating the coal-fired power income.

Benefits of technology

It has achieved a comprehensive and accurate estimation of coal-fired power returns, providing a reliable reference for power planning and coal-fired power investment decisions.

✦ Generated by Eureka AI based on patent content.

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Patent Text Reader

Abstract

The invention discloses a planned annual coal power income estimation method and system, and belongs to the technical field of power systems. The method comprises the following steps: collecting planning annual data of a researched system; according to the planning year data of the researched system, performing planning year production simulation and insurance supply analysis calculation to obtain a production simulation and insurance supply analysis calculation result; according to the production simulation and guarantee supply analysis calculation result, the time period electric quantity of the coal electricity is counted; determining a time period electricity price, and calculating an electric quantity income by using the coal electricity time period electric quantity and the time period electricity price to obtain the electric quantity income; calculating the capacity compensation income according to the coal-electricity installation and the unit kilowatt compensation price; according to the auxiliary service kilowatt-hour electricity revenue mean value, the reduction coefficient and the coal electricity generating capacity in the production simulation calculation result in the historical years, auxiliary service revenue is calculated; and calculating the electricity consumption income, the capacity compensation income and the auxiliary service income to obtain the coal electricity income.
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Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of electric power systems, and in particular relates to a method and system for estimating planned annual coal-fired power revenue. Background Art

[0002] Estimating the revenue of coal-fired power is an important part of evaluating power planning schemes. The vigorous development of new energy has squeezed out coal-fired power generation, and the survival of coal-fired power is facing challenges. The proportion of new energy continues to increase. In order to promote the consumption of new energy, the survival space of coal-fired power is squeezed.

[0003] On the other hand, coal-fired power is still the largest supporting power source for power system flexibility and power generation during the transformation of the power system, and will continue to play the role of "ballast stone" and "pillar" of energy and power security.

[0004] Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the benefits and costs of coal-fired power in the planning, consider the survival of coal-fired power in the planning scheme, and propose corresponding policies and measures. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the problem of how to calculate the income and cost of coal-fired power generation, and propose a method and system for estimating the income of coal-fired power generation in a planned year.

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme: In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power generation revenue, comprising the following steps: 1) Collect the annual planning data of the system under study; 2) Based on the planned year data of the system under study, perform production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculations for the planned year to obtain the production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculation results; 3) According to the calculation results of production simulation and supply guarantee analysis, the electricity consumption of coal-fired power during each period is counted; 4) Determine the electricity price during the time period, calculate the electricity revenue using the coal-fired power consumption during the time period and the electricity price during the time period, and obtain the electricity revenue; 5) Calculate capacity compensation benefits based on coal-fired power installed capacity and compensation price per kilowatt; 6) Calculate the ancillary service revenue based on the average of the ancillary service revenue per kilowatt-hour in historical years, the reduction factor and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results; 7) The coal-fired power revenue is calculated using electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.

[0007] Furthermore, in step 1), the planned annual data of the system under study includes the planned annual load of the system under study, the planned annual power supply scale of the system under study and the planned annual output characteristics of the system under study.

[0008] Furthermore, in step 3), the method for calculating the period electricity consumption of coal-fired power is as follows: The 24 hours of a day are divided into three periods: peak, valley and flat, and the coal-fired power consumption in each period is obtained by statistics.

[0009] Furthermore, in step 3), according to the hourly distribution of renewable energy curtailment in the production simulation results, the 6 to 10 hours with the most curtailment are selected as the valley period; the 6 to 10 hours with the tightest power supply are selected as the peak period; if there is no tight power supply period, the 6 to 10 hours with the maximum load minus the average output of renewable energy are used as the peak period; the remaining time is used as the normal period.

[0010] Furthermore, in step 4), the method for calculating the electricity revenue is: The period electricity revenue is obtained by multiplying the period electricity quantity of coal-fired power by the period electricity price. The period electricity revenue of each period is added together to obtain the electricity revenue. The electricity price during normal hours is the benchmark electricity price; The peak-time electricity price is the normal-time electricity price × (1 + peak-time floating ratio); The off-peak electricity price is the normal-time electricity price × (1-off-peak price reduction ratio).

[0011] Furthermore, the electricity price during normal periods is the product of the average annual coal consumption of coal-fired power and the coal price; The off-peak electricity price is the marginal cost of the new energy unit; The peak electricity price is the marginal cost of the power supply.

[0012] Furthermore, in step 5), the method for calculating the capacity compensation benefit is: Multiply the coal-fired power installed capacity and the compensation price per kilowatt to obtain the capacity compensation income.

[0013] Furthermore, in step 6), the calculation method of ancillary service revenue is: The ancillary service revenue is obtained by multiplying the average of the ancillary service revenue per kilowatt-hour in historical years, the discount coefficient and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results.

[0014] Furthermore, in step 7), the calculation method of coal-fired power revenue is: The coal-fired power revenue is obtained by adding up the electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.

[0015] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a planned annual coal-fired power generation revenue estimation system, comprising: Data collection module, used to collect the annual planning data of the system under study; The production simulation and supply guarantee analysis module is used to perform production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculations for the planned year based on the planned year data of the system under study, and obtain the production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculation results; The module for counting the electricity consumption during a certain period is used to count the electricity consumption during a certain period of coal-fired power generation based on the calculation results of production simulation and supply guarantee analysis; The module for calculating the electricity revenue is used to determine the electricity price during the period, and calculate the electricity revenue using the coal-fired electricity during the period and the electricity price during the period to obtain the electricity revenue; The module for calculating capacity compensation income is used to calculate capacity compensation income based on coal-fired power installed capacity and compensation price per kilowatt; The auxiliary service revenue calculation module is used to calculate the auxiliary service revenue based on the average auxiliary service kilowatt-hour revenue in historical years, the reduction factor and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results; The module for calculating the coal-fired power revenue is used to calculate the coal-fired power revenue using electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.

[0016] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial technical effects: The invention proposes a method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power revenue, which divides the coal-fired power revenue into three categories: capacity compensation revenue, electricity revenue, and ancillary service revenue. The planned annual coal-fired power revenue is calculated by comprehensively considering policy requirements, historical conditions, and simulation of the planned year. The method of the invention can be used to calculate the planned annual revenue of coal-fired power, providing a reference for power supply planning and coal-fired power investment decisions. The method of the invention can be used to calculate the planned annual revenue of coal-fired power, providing a reference for power supply planning and coal-fired power investment decisions. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0017] The drawings described herein are for explanation purposes only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention in any way. In addition, the shapes and proportional dimensions of the components in the drawings are only for illustration purposes to help understand the present invention, and are not intended to specifically limit the shapes and proportional dimensions of the components of the present invention. In the drawings: Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of a method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power revenue.

[0018] Figure 2 This is a structural diagram of a planned annual coal-fired power revenue estimation system of the present invention.

[0019] Figure 3 This is an electronic device diagram of a method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power revenue of the present invention.

[0020] Figure 4 2 is the wind power output characteristic of a certain province in 2030 in the embodiment.

[0021] Figure 5 2 is the photovoltaic output characteristic of a province in 2030 in the embodiment.

[0022] Figure 6 Calculation result of daily power balance of a provincial power grid in 2030 in the embodiment.

[0023] Figure 7 Result of daily power shortage of a provincial power grid in 2030 in the embodiment.

[0024] Figure 8 This is the simulation result of power grid production in a certain province in 2030 in the embodiment.

[0025] Fig. 9 This is a distribution diagram of the hourly abandoned electricity amount of renewable energy in a provincial power grid in 2030 in the embodiment.

[0026] Fig.10 The hourly difference distribution diagram of the power grid load and the new energy output of a certain province in 2030 in the embodiment is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the scheme of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0028] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as those commonly understood by those skilled in the art to which the present invention belongs. The terms used herein in the specification of the present invention are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. The term "and / or" used herein includes any and all combinations of one or more of the related listed items.

[0029] It should be noted that the terms "first", "second", etc. in the specification and claims of the present invention and the above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects, and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that the data used in this way can be interchanged where appropriate, so that the embodiments of the present invention described herein can be implemented in an order other than those illustrated or described herein. In addition, the terms "including" and "having" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions, for example, a process, method, system, product or device that includes a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units that are clearly listed, but may include other steps or units that are not clearly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products or devices.

[0030] Embodiment 1 See also Figure 1 , a method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power generation revenue, comprising the following steps: 1) Collect the annual planning data of the system under study; In step 1), the planned annual data of the system under study include the planned annual load of the system under study, the planned annual power supply scale of the system under study and the planned annual output characteristics of the system under study.

[0031] 2) Based on the planned year data of the system under study, perform production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculations for the planned year to obtain the production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculation results; 3) According to the calculation results of production simulation and supply guarantee analysis, the electricity consumption of coal-fired power during each period is counted; In step 3), the method for calculating the period electricity consumption of coal-fired power is: The 24 hours of a day are divided into three periods: peak, valley and flat, and the coal-fired power consumption in each period is obtained by statistics.

[0032] In step 3), according to the hourly distribution of renewable energy curtailment in the production simulation results, select the 6-10 hours with the most curtailment as the valley period; select the 6-10 hours with the tightest power supply as the peak period; if there is no tight power supply period, use the maximum 6-10 hours of load minus the average output of renewable energy as the peak period; and the remaining time as the normal period.

[0033] 4) Determine the electricity price during the time period, calculate the electricity revenue using the coal-fired power consumption during the time period and the electricity price during the time period, and obtain the electricity revenue; In step 4), the method for calculating the electricity benefit is: The period electricity revenue is obtained by multiplying the period electricity quantity of coal-fired power by the period electricity price. The period electricity revenue of each period is added together to obtain the electricity revenue. The electricity price during normal hours is the benchmark electricity price; The peak-time electricity price is the normal-time electricity price × (1 + peak-time floating ratio); The off-peak electricity price is the normal-time electricity price × (1-off-peak price reduction ratio).

[0034] The electricity price during normal periods is the product of the annual average coal consumption of coal-fired power and the coal price; The off-peak electricity price is the marginal cost of the new energy unit; The peak electricity price is the marginal cost of the power supply.

[0035] 5) Calculate capacity compensation benefits based on coal-fired power installed capacity and compensation price per kilowatt; In step 5), the method for calculating capacity compensation benefits is: Multiply the coal-fired power installed capacity and the compensation price per kilowatt to obtain the capacity compensation income.

[0036] 6) Calculate the ancillary service revenue based on the average of the ancillary service revenue per kilowatt-hour in historical years, the reduction factor and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results; In step 6), the calculation method of ancillary service revenue is: The ancillary service revenue is obtained by multiplying the average of the ancillary service revenue per kilowatt-hour in historical years, the discount coefficient and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results.

[0037] 7) The coal-fired power revenue is calculated using electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.

[0038] In step 7), the calculation method of coal power revenue is: The coal-fired power revenue is obtained by adding up the electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.

[0039] Embodiment 2 See also Figure 2 , a planned annual coal-fired power generation revenue estimation system, comprising: Data collection module, used to collect the annual planning data of the system under study; The production simulation and supply guarantee analysis module is used to perform production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculations for the planned year based on the planned year data of the system under study, and obtain the production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculation results; The module for counting the electricity consumption during a certain period is used to count the electricity consumption during a certain period of coal-fired power generation based on the calculation results of production simulation and supply guarantee analysis; The module for calculating the electricity revenue is used to determine the electricity price during the period, and calculate the electricity revenue using the coal-fired electricity during the period and the electricity price during the period to obtain the electricity revenue; The module for calculating capacity compensation income is used to calculate capacity compensation income based on coal-fired power installed capacity and compensation price per kilowatt; The auxiliary service revenue calculation module is used to calculate the auxiliary service revenue based on the average auxiliary service kilowatt-hour revenue in historical years, the reduction factor and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results; The module for calculating the coal-fired power revenue is used to calculate the coal-fired power revenue using electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.

[0040] Embodiment 3 See also Figure 1 , a method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power generation revenue, comprising the following steps: 1) Collect data on the planned annual load, power supply scale, output characteristics, etc. of the system under study; 2) The coal-fired power revenue is divided into three categories: capacity compensation revenue, electricity revenue, and ancillary service revenue. The first step is to calculate the electricity revenue, firstly to conduct the planning level year production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculation; 3) Based on the results of production simulation and supply guarantee analysis, the 24 hours of a day are divided into three periods: peak, valley and flat, and the electricity consumption of coal-fired power in each period is counted; 4) Determine the electricity price for each period, multiply the electricity consumption in each period by the electricity price, and add them together to get the electricity revenue; 5) Capacity compensation income is calculated according to policy requirements, which is the compensation price per kilowatt of coal-fired power installed capacity; 6) Ancillary service revenue is the average of the ancillary service revenue per kWh in historical years * reduction factor * coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results; 7) By adding the above three types of collection, you can get the coal-fired power revenue.

[0041] This embodiment takes the coal-fired power of a provincial power grid in 2030 as an example, and uses a method for estimating the coal-fired power revenue in a planned year to calculate the revenue of the coal-fired power of a provincial power grid in 2030. The specific operation steps are as follows: (1) Collect data such as the planned annual load, power supply scale, and output characteristics of the system under study.

[0042] It is predicted that in 2030, the total social load of a province's power grid will be 37.3 million kilowatts, and the total social electricity consumption will reach 255 billion kilowatt-hours. The summary of the planned power supply boundary of a province in 2030 (internal planning boundary) is shown in Table 1, the peak-shaving characteristics of thermal power in a province in 2030 are shown in Table 2, the statistics of the peak-shaving capacity of thermal power in a province in 2030 are shown in Table 2, and the output characteristics of wind power, photovoltaic power and hydropower in a province in 2030 are shown in Table 3. Figure 4 and Figure 5 .

[0043] Table 1 Summary of planned power supply boundaries for a province in 2030 (internal planning boundaries) Unit: 10,000 kilowatts

[0044] Table 2 Thermal power peak regulation characteristics of a province in 2030

[0045] (2) The coal-fired power revenue is divided into three categories: capacity compensation revenue, electricity revenue, and ancillary service revenue. The first step is to calculate the electricity revenue, and first conduct a production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculation in the planning level year.

[0046] The annual 8760-hour production simulation calculation and typical daily power supply calculation of a provincial power grid in 2030 are carried out. The results are shown in Table 3 and Figure 6 , Figure 7 , Figure 8 . From the results of 8760 hours throughout the year, it can be seen that the thermal power generation of a certain province's power grid in 2030 is 60.1 billion kWh, and the rate of abandoned power from new energy is 6.2%. From the results of the power supply guarantee analysis, it can be seen that in 2030, there will be a power shortage of 70,000 kilowatts in a typical day of a certain province's power grid throughout the entire period.

[0047] Table 3 Calculation results of a province's annual 8760-hour production simulation in 2030 Unit: billion kWh, hour

[0048] (3) Based on the results of production simulation and supply guarantee analysis, the 24-hour day is divided into three periods: peak, valley and flat, and the amount of coal-fired power generated in each period is counted.

[0049] Through the production simulation results, we can get the hourly distribution of renewable energy curtailment in a certain province’s power grid in 2030, see Fig. 9 The 6-10 hours with the most power abandonment are selected as the off-peak period. Therefore, the off-peak period in this example is from 11:00 to 16:00.

[0050] In the analysis and calculation of power supply security of a certain province's power grid in 2030, there is a power shortage at all times, and it is impossible to select the time when power supply is most tense. Therefore, the maximum 6 to 10 hours of load minus the average output of renewable energy are taken as the peak period. The result of load minus the average output of renewable energy is shown in Fig.10 Therefore, in this example, the peak hours are 20:00~1:00 and 7:00~8:00, and the normal hours are other times except the peak and valley hours. The distribution of electricity in the peak, valley and normal hours is shown in Table 4.

[0051] Table 4: Electricity consumption during peak, valley and normal periods of a province's power grid in 2030 Unit: 100 million kWh

[0052] (4) Determine the electricity price for each time period, multiply the electricity consumption in each time period by the electricity price, and add the sum to get the electricity revenue.

[0053] The electricity price during normal periods is the benchmark electricity price, the electricity price during peak periods is the electricity price during normal periods × (1 + the increase ratio during peak periods), and the electricity price during valley periods is the electricity price during normal periods × (1 - the decrease ratio during valley periods).

[0054] If there are no relevant policy requirements, the electricity price during normal hours is the average annual coal consumption of coal-fired power * coal price. During off-peak hours, due to the abandonment of new energy power, the electricity price is the marginal cost of new energy units. The peak electricity price is the marginal cost of coal-fired power or power sources such as energy storage and pumped storage.

[0055] In 2030, the peak, valley and normal-time electricity prices of a certain province's power grid will be 0.76 yuan / kWh, 0.26 yuan / kWh and 0.51 yuan / kWh respectively. The electricity revenue is shown in Table 5, and the overall revenue is 33.468 billion yuan.

[0056] Table 5 Annual peak, valley and normal period electricity revenue of a certain province's power grid in 2030 Unit: 100 million yuan

[0057] (5) Capacity compensation income is calculated according to policy requirements and is coal-fired power installed capacity × compensation price per kilowatt.

[0058] In this embodiment, the capacity compensation fee in 2030 is 330 yuan / kilowatt, the coal-fired power installed capacity of a provincial power grid is 29.4 million kilowatts, and the calculated capacity compensation income is 9.702 billion yuan.

[0059] (6) Ancillary service revenue is the average of the ancillary service revenue per kilowatt-hour in historical years × the discount factor × the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results.

[0060] In this embodiment, the average revenue per kilowatt-hour of ancillary services of a provincial power grid in 2030 is 0.03 yuan / kWh (the average revenue per kilowatt-hour of ancillary services in historical years), the discount coefficient is 0.8, and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results is 60.1 billion kWh, so the calculated ancillary service revenue is 1.424 billion yuan.

[0061] (7) By adding the above three types of benefits, we can get the coal-fired power benefits.

[0062] From the above calculation results, it can be seen that in this embodiment, the electricity revenue of a certain province's power grid in 2030 is 33.468 billion yuan, the capacity compensation revenue is 9.702 billion yuan, and the ancillary service revenue is 1.424 billion yuan, so the total coal-fired power revenue is 44.594 billion yuan.

[0063] Many embodiments and many applications beyond the examples provided will be apparent to those skilled in the art upon reading the above description. Therefore, the scope of the present teachings should not be determined with reference to the above description, but rather with reference to the preceding claims and the full scope of equivalents to which such claims are entitled. For the purpose of comprehensiveness, all articles and references, including disclosures of patent applications and publications, are incorporated herein by reference. The omission of any aspect of the subject matter disclosed herein in the preceding claims is not intended to be a disclaimer of such subject matter, nor should it be considered that the applicants did not consider such subject matter to be part of the disclosed inventive subject matter.

[0064] The above content is a further detailed description of the present invention. It cannot be determined that the specific implementation methods of the present invention are limited to these. For ordinary technicians in the technical field to which the present invention belongs, they can make several simple deductions or substitutions without departing from the concept of the present invention, which should be regarded as belonging to the scope of protection submitted for the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power revenue, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: 1) Collect the annual planning data of the system under study; 2) Based on the planned year data of the system under study, perform production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculations for the planned year to obtain the production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculation results; 3) According to the calculation results of production simulation and supply guarantee analysis, the electricity consumption of coal-fired power during each period is counted; 4) Determine the electricity price during the time period, calculate the electricity revenue using the coal-fired power consumption during the time period and the electricity price during the time period, and obtain the electricity revenue; 5) Calculate capacity compensation benefits based on coal-fired power installed capacity and compensation price per kilowatt; 6) Calculate the ancillary service revenue based on the average of the ancillary service revenue per kilowatt-hour in historical years, the reduction factor and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results; 7) The coal-fired power revenue is calculated using electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.

2. A method for estimating planned annual coal-fired power revenue according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 1), the planned annual data of the system under study include the planned annual load of the system under study, the planned annual power supply scale of the system under study and the planned annual output characteristics of the system under study.

3. A method for estimating planned annual coal-fired power revenue according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 3), the method for calculating the period electricity consumption of coal-fired power is: The 24 hours of a day are divided into three periods: peak, valley and flat, and the coal-fired power consumption in each period is obtained by statistics.

4. A method for estimating planned annual coal-fired power revenue according to claim 3, characterized in that: In step 3), according to the hourly distribution of renewable energy curtailment in the production simulation results, select the 6-10 hours with the most curtailment as the valley period; select the 6-10 hours with the most tense power supply as the peak period; If there is no period of tight power supply, the peak period is the maximum 6 to 10 hours when the load is deducted from the average output of renewable energy; The remaining time period is regarded as the normal time period.

5. A method for estimating planned annual coal-fired power revenue according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step 4), the method for calculating the electricity benefit is: The period electricity revenue is obtained by multiplying the period electricity quantity of coal-fired power by the period electricity price. The period electricity revenue of each period is added together to obtain the electricity revenue. The electricity price during normal hours is the benchmark electricity price; The peak-time electricity price is the normal-time electricity price × (1 + peak-time floating ratio); The off-peak electricity price is the normal-time electricity price × (1-off-peak price reduction ratio).

6. A method for estimating planned annual coal-fired power revenue according to claim 5, characterized in that: The electricity price during normal periods is the product of the annual average coal consumption of coal-fired power and the coal price; The off-peak electricity price is the marginal cost of the new energy unit; The peak electricity price is the marginal cost of the power supply.

7. A method for estimating planned annual coal-fired power revenue according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 5), the method for calculating capacity compensation benefits is: Multiply the coal-fired power installed capacity and the compensation price per kilowatt to obtain the capacity compensation income.

8. The method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power generation revenue according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 6), the calculation method of ancillary service revenue is: The ancillary service revenue is obtained by multiplying the average of the ancillary service revenue per kilowatt-hour in historical years, the discount coefficient and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results.

9. The method for estimating the planned annual coal-fired power revenue according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 7), the calculation method of coal power revenue is: The coal-fired power revenue is obtained by adding up the electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.

10. A planned annual coal-fired power generation revenue estimation system, characterized in that: include: Data collection module, used to collect the annual planning data of the system under study; The production simulation and supply guarantee analysis module is used to perform production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculations for the planned year based on the planned year data of the system under study, and obtain the production simulation and supply guarantee analysis calculation results; The module for counting the electricity consumption during a certain period is used to count the electricity consumption during a certain period of coal-fired power generation based on the calculation results of production simulation and supply guarantee analysis; The module for calculating the electricity revenue is used to determine the electricity price during the period, and calculate the electricity revenue using the coal-fired electricity during the period and the electricity price during the period to obtain the electricity revenue; The module for calculating capacity compensation income is used to calculate capacity compensation income based on coal-fired power installed capacity and compensation price per kilowatt; The auxiliary service revenue calculation module is used to calculate the auxiliary service revenue based on the average auxiliary service kilowatt-hour revenue in historical years, the reduction factor and the coal-fired power generation in the production simulation calculation results; The module for calculating the coal-fired power revenue is used to calculate the coal-fired power revenue using electricity revenue, capacity compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue.