Marine HIPPS human factor reliability analysis method, device, equipment and product

Abstract

The invention discloses an offshore HIPPS human factor reliability analysis method, device, equipment and product. The method comprises the following steps: determining an allowable time for an operator to make a decision and a response time for the operator to make a decision in an emergency of a high integrity pressure protection system HIPPS; determining corresponding behavior characteristic parameters when an operator makes a decision; calculating to obtain a response time median; calculating to obtain a first human factor failure probability; and correcting the first human factor failure probability to obtain a second human factor failure probability for representing the marine HIPPS human factor reliability. According to the method, the influence of the external environment on the decision response time and the response accuracy of the operator can be considered besides the factors of the operator, the human factor reliability of the ocean platform HIPPS system can be analyzed more scientifically and reasonably, and the method has the advantages of being accurate in calculation, high in reliability and wide in application range.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of human factor reliability analysis of system operation, and in particular relates to a method, device, equipment and product for human factor reliability analysis of offshore HIPPS. Background Art

[0002] High integrity pressure protection system (HIPPS) is a safety device used to protect high-pressure gas or liquid pipeline systems. It is mainly used to prevent pipeline systems from rupture or leakage due to overpressure or overcurrent, thereby protecting the safety of related personnel and equipment. As the last layer of overpressure protection system on offshore platforms, the reliability of its hardware components has been gradually improved. At the same time, control room operators are an indispensable part of the offshore platform HIPPS system. In overpressure emergencies, the response time and response accuracy of operators have also become key issues. However, due to the particularity and complexity of the offshore environment, the possibility of human factors causing errors in overpressure operation tasks still exists. Any accidents or mistakes during the operation may lead to the loss of the safety function of the HIPPS system. Under existing technical conditions, there is a lack of effective methods for analyzing the human reliability of HIPPS in overpressure scenarios, which cannot provide strong support for further improving the reliability of the HIPPS system. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of this, the present invention aims to overcome the defects in the prior art and proposes a method, device, equipment and product for human reliability analysis of offshore HIPPS.

[0004] To achieve the above object, the technical solution of the present invention is achieved as follows:

[0005] In a first aspect, the present invention discloses a method for analyzing human reliability of offshore HIPPS, comprising:

[0006] Determine the allowable time for operators to make decisions and the response time for operators to make decisions in emergency situations of the High Integrity Pressure Protection System (HIPPS);

[0007] Determine the behavioral characteristic parameters corresponding to the operator's decision-making;

[0008] The human cognitive reliability model HCR is used to calculate the median response time based on the response time, the correction factor used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision-making, and the correction factor used to characterize the influence of the operator's environmental factors on the response time of the decision-making;

[0009] The three-parameter Weibull distribution formula is used to calculate the first human failure probability based on the allowable time, median response time, and behavioral characteristic parameters.

[0010] The correction coefficient used to characterize the impact of the environment on the operator's response accuracy is used to correct the first human failure probability, and the second human failure probability used to characterize the human reliability of offshore HIPPS is obtained.

[0011] In one embodiment of the present invention, the behavior characteristic parameters include: skill-based behavior characteristic parameters, rule-based behavior characteristic parameters and knowledge-based behavior characteristic parameters.

[0012] In one embodiment of the present invention, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision includes: an operator experience correction coefficient, a stress level correction coefficient and a human-machine system correction coefficient.

[0013] In one embodiment of the present invention, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the environmental factors of the operator on the response time of the decision-making includes: the correction parameter of the influence of the temperature and wind speed of the environment on the response time of the operator's decision, the correction parameter of the influence of the noise of the environment on the response time of the operator's decision, and the correction parameter of the influence of the movement of the offshore platform on the response time of the operator's decision.

[0014] In one embodiment of the present invention, a correction factor is used to characterize the effect of the environment on the operator's response accuracy, including: a correction parameter for the effect of the combined effect of the environment's temperature and humidity on the operator's response accuracy, a correction parameter for the effect of the environment's noise on the operator's response accuracy, and a correction parameter for the effect of the movement of the offshore platform on the operator's response accuracy.

[0015] In one embodiment of the present invention, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision is obtained through a simulator test.

[0016] In a second aspect, the present invention discloses a device for analyzing human factor reliability of offshore HIPPS, the device comprising:

[0017] The first determination module is used to determine the allowable time for operators of the high integrity pressure protection system HIPPS to make decisions and the response time for operators to make decisions in an emergency situation;

[0018] The second determination module is used to determine the behavior characteristic parameters corresponding to the operator's decision-making;

[0019] The first calculation module is used to calculate the median response time using the human cognitive reliability model HCR according to the response time, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision-making, and the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's environmental factors on the response time of the decision-making;

[0020] The second calculation module is used to calculate the first human failure probability according to the allowable time, the median response time and the behavior characteristic parameters using the three-parameter Weibull distribution formula;

[0021] The third calculation module is used to correct the first human failure probability by using the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the environment on the accuracy of the operator's response, so as to obtain the second human failure probability used to characterize the human reliability of the offshore HIPPS.

[0022] In a third aspect, the present invention discloses an electronic device, comprising: one or more processors; a storage device for storing one or more programs, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors execute the above method.

[0023] In a fourth aspect, the present invention discloses a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which implements the above method when executed by a processor.

[0024] In a fifth aspect, the present invention discloses a computer program product, including a computer program, which implements the above method when executed by a processor.

[0025] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0026] The present invention discloses a method, device, equipment and product for analyzing the human reliability of an offshore HIPPS, including determining the allowable time for an operator to make a decision and the response time for the operator to make a decision in an emergency of a high integrity pressure protection system HIPPS; determining the corresponding behavior characteristic parameters when the operator makes a decision; calculating the median of the response time; calculating the first human failure probability; correcting the first human failure probability to obtain a second human failure probability for characterizing the human reliability of the offshore HIPPS. The present invention discloses a method, device, equipment and product for analyzing the human reliability of an offshore HIPPS, which realizes that in addition to considering the operator's own factors, the influence of the external environment on the operator's decision response time and response accuracy can be considered, and the human reliability of the offshore platform HIPPS system can be analyzed more scientifically and rationally, and has the characteristics of accurate calculation, high reliability and wide application range. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0027] The accompanying drawings, which constitute a part of the present invention, are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention. The exemplary embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute improper limitations on the present invention.

[0028] In the attached picture:

[0029] Figure 1This is a schematic diagram of an application scenario of a method for human factor reliability analysis of offshore HIPPS according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a method for human factor reliability analysis of offshore HIPPS according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0031] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of a device for human factor reliability analysis of offshore HIPPS according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0032] Figure 4 The present invention is a schematic diagram of an electronic device for human reliability analysis of a marine HIPPS according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0033] It should be noted that, in the absence of conflict, the embodiments of the present invention and the features in the embodiments may be combined with each other.

[0034] In the description of the present invention, it should be further explained that the terms "first", "second", etc. are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be understood as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of the indicated technical features. Thus, a feature defined as "first", "second", etc. may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of the features. In the description of the present invention, unless otherwise specified, "plurality" means two or more.

[0035] The present invention discloses a method, device, equipment and product for analyzing human factor reliability of offshore HIPPS, and its application scenarios include: Figure 1 As shown, the present invention discloses a method, device, equipment and product for analyzing the human reliability of offshore HIPPS, including determining the allowable time for operators to make decisions and the response time of operators to make decisions in an emergency of a high integrity pressure protection system HIPPS; determining the corresponding behavioral characteristic parameters when the operators make decisions; calculating the median of the response time; calculating the first human failure probability; correcting the first human failure probability to obtain the second human failure probability for characterizing the human reliability of offshore HIPPS. The present invention discloses a method, device, equipment and product for analyzing the human reliability of offshore HIPPS, which realizes that in addition to considering the operator's own factors, the influence of the external environment on the operator's decision response time and response accuracy can be considered, and the human reliability of the offshore platform HIPPS system can be analyzed more scientifically and reasonably, and has the characteristics of accurate calculation, high reliability and wide application range.

[0036] The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and in conjunction with embodiments.

[0037] In one embodiment of the present invention, Figure 2As shown, a method for human factor reliability analysis of offshore HIPPS includes:

[0038] Step S201, determining the allowable time for operators of the high integrity pressure protection system HIPPS to make decisions in an emergency and the response time for operators to make decisions;

[0039] Step S202, determining the behavior characteristic parameters corresponding to the operator's decision-making;

[0040] Step S203, using the human cognitive reliability model HCR, the median response time is calculated according to the response time, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision-making, and the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's environmental factors on the response time of the decision-making;

[0041] The correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of operator's own factors on the response time of decision-making is obtained through simulator test.

[0042] Step S204, using the three-parameter Weibull distribution formula, according to the allowable time, the median of the response time and the behavior characteristic parameters, the first human failure probability is calculated;

[0043] Step S205: using the correction coefficient used to characterize the impact of the environment on the operator's response accuracy, correct the first human failure probability to obtain a second human failure probability used to characterize the human reliability of the offshore HIPPS.

[0044] In one embodiment of the present invention, the behavior characteristic parameters include: skill-based behavior characteristic parameters, rule-based behavior characteristic parameters and knowledge-based behavior characteristic parameters.

[0045] In this embodiment, the values ​​of β, γ and η of the skill-based behavior characteristic parameters, rule-based behavior characteristic parameters and knowledge-based behavior characteristic parameters are as follows:

[0046]

[0047] In one embodiment of the present invention, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision includes: an operator experience correction coefficient, a stress level correction coefficient and a human-machine system correction coefficient.

[0048] The operator experience correction factor is expressed as K1, the pressure level correction factor is expressed as K2, and the human-machine system correction factor is expressed as K3. The values ​​are as follows:

[0049]

[0050] In one embodiment of the present invention, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the environmental factors of the operator on the response time of the decision-making includes: the correction parameter of the influence of the temperature and wind speed of the environment on the response time of the operator's decision, the correction parameter of the influence of the noise of the environment on the response time of the operator's decision, and the correction parameter of the influence of the movement of the offshore platform on the response time of the operator's decision.

[0051] The correction parameter of the influence of the ambient temperature and wind speed on the operator's decision-making response time is expressed as K4, and the values ​​are as follows:

[0052] The correction parameter K4 of the influence of the ambient temperature and wind speed on the operator's decision-making response time

[0053]

[0054] In one embodiment of the present invention, a correction factor is used to characterize the effect of the environment on the operator's response accuracy, including: a correction parameter for the effect of the combined effect of the environment's temperature and humidity on the operator's response accuracy, a correction parameter for the effect of the environment's noise on the operator's response accuracy, and a correction parameter for the effect of the movement of the offshore platform on the operator's response accuracy.

[0055] The correction parameter of the temperature and humidity of the environment combined with the influence on the accuracy of the operator's response is expressed as P1, and the values ​​are as follows:

[0056] The correction parameter P1 of the influence of the temperature and humidity of the environment on the accuracy of the operator's response

[0057]

[0058]

[0059] The correction parameter for the effect of environmental noise on the operator's response accuracy is expressed as P2, and the correction parameter for the effect of environmental noise on the operator's decision-making response time is expressed as K5. The values ​​of the two are as follows:

[0060] Environmental noise

[0061]

[0062] The correction parameter for the influence of the motion of the offshore platform on the operator's response accuracy is expressed as P3, and the correction parameter for the influence of the motion of the offshore platform on the response time of the operator's decision is expressed as K6. The values ​​of the two are as follows:

[0063] Platform Movement

[0064]

[0065] Furthermore, the allowed time is denoted as t, the operator's response time for making decisions is denoted as T0, and the median response time is denoted as T 1 / 2 , the calculation process is as follows:

[0066] T 1 / 2 =T0·(1+K1)·(1+K2)·(1+K3)·K4·(1-K5)·(1-K6)

[0067] The probability of failure due to second-hand factors is expressed as P(t), and the calculation process is as follows:

[0068]

[0069] In a practical application of the present invention, the application process of the method disclosed in the present invention is as follows:

[0070] The allowed time t is 50s, and the response time T0 is 10s;

[0071] The behavior characteristic parameters are regular behavior characteristic parameters, and the corresponding values ​​of β, γ and η are 0.9, 0.6 and 0.601;

[0072] The operator experience correction parameter K1 is set to 0, the pressure level correction parameter K2 is set to 0.44, and the human-machine system correction parameter K3 is set to -0.22;

[0073] The correction parameter K4, which combines the ambient temperature and wind speed and affects the operator's decision-making response time, takes a value of 1;

[0074] The correction parameter for the effect of environmental noise on the operator's decision-making response time is K5, which takes a value of -0.34;

[0075] The correction parameter K6 for the effect of the motion of the offshore platform on the response time of the operator's decision-making is -0.34;

[0076] The correction parameter P1, which combines the temperature and humidity of the environment and affects the accuracy of the operator's response, takes a value of 1;

[0077] The correction parameter P2 for the effect of environmental noise on the operator's response accuracy is -0.1;

[0078] The correction parameter P3 for the effect of the motion of the offshore platform on the operator's response accuracy is -0.2;

[0079] T 1 / 2 = T in T0·(1+K1)·(1+K2)·(1+K3)·K4·(1-K5)·(1-K6) 1 / 2 The calculated result is 18.51s;

[0080] The calculated result of P(t) is 6.04×10 -2 .

[0081] like Figure 3 As shown, the present invention also discloses a device for analyzing human factor reliability of offshore HIPPS, comprising:

[0082] The first determination module 301 is used to determine the allowable time for operators of the high integrity pressure protection system HIPPS to make decisions and the response time for operators to make decisions in an emergency situation;

[0083] The second determination module 302 is used to determine the behavior characteristic parameters corresponding to the operator's decision-making;

[0084] The first calculation module 303 is used to calculate the median response time using the human cognitive reliability model HCR according to the response time, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision, and the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's environmental factors on the response time of the decision;

[0085] The second calculation module 304 is used to calculate the first human failure probability according to the allowable time, the median response time and the behavior characteristic parameter using the three-parameter Weibull distribution formula;

[0086] The third calculation module 305 is used to correct the first human failure probability using the correction coefficient used to characterize the impact of the environment on the operator's response accuracy, and obtain a second human failure probability used to characterize the human reliability of the offshore HIPPS.

[0087] The present invention also discloses an electronic device, such as Figure 4 As shown, an embodiment is disclosed, which is a block diagram of an electronic device suitable for the above-mentioned marine HIPPS human reliability analysis.

[0088] The electronic device 40 of this embodiment includes a processor 401, which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to the program stored in the ROM 402 or the program loaded from the storage part 408 into the RAM 403. The processor 401 may include, for example, a general-purpose microprocessor, an instruction set processor and / or a related chipset and / or a dedicated microprocessor, etc. The processor 401 may also include an onboard memory for caching purposes. The processor 401 may include a single processing unit or multiple processing units for performing different actions of the method flow according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0089] In RAM403, various programs and data required for the operation of electronic device 40 are stored. Processor 401, ROM402 and RAM403 are connected to each other through bus 404, and processor 401 performs various operations of the method flow according to the embodiment of the present invention by executing the program in ROM402 and / or RAM403. It should be noted that the program can also be stored in one or more memories other than ROM402 and RAM403, and processor 401 can also perform various operations of the method flow according to the embodiment of the present invention by executing the program stored in one or more memories.

[0090] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the electronic device 40 may further include an I / O interface 405, which is also connected to the bus 404. The electronic device 40 may further include one or more of the following components connected to the I / O interface 405: an input portion 406 including a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output portion 407 including a cathode ray tube, a liquid crystal display, and a speaker; a storage portion 408 including a hard disk, etc.; and a communication portion 409 including a network interface card such as a LAN card, a modem, etc. The communication portion 409 performs communication processing via a network such as the Internet. A drive 4010 is also connected to the I / O interface 405 as needed. A removable medium 4011, such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a semiconductor memory, etc., is installed on the drive 4010 as needed, so that a computer program read therefrom is installed into the storage portion 408 as needed.

[0091] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium.

[0092] The computer-readable storage medium may be included in the electronic device / device system described in the above embodiment; or it may exist independently without being assembled into the electronic device / device. The above computer-readable storage medium carries one or more programs, and when the above one or more programs are executed, the method according to the embodiment of the present invention is implemented.

[0093] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the computer-readable storage medium may be a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. For example, it may include but is not limited to: a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory RAM, a read-only memory ROM, an erasable programmable read-only memory EPROM or a flash memory, a portable compact disk read-only memory CD-ROM, an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination thereof. In the present invention, the computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium containing or storing a program, which may be used by or in combination with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.

[0094] Embodiments of the present invention also include a computer program product.

[0095] The computer program product includes a computer program, which contains program codes for executing the method provided by the embodiment of the present invention. When the computer program product runs on an electronic device, the program codes are used to enable the electronic device to implement the method provided by the embodiment of the present invention.

[0096] In one embodiment, the computer program may rely on a tangible storage medium such as an optical storage device or a magnetic storage device. In another embodiment, the computer program may also be transmitted and distributed in the form of a signal on a network medium. The program code included in the computer program may be transmitted using any appropriate network medium, including but not limited to: wireless, wired, etc., or any suitable combination of the above.

[0097] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the program code for executing the computer program provided by the embodiment of the present invention can be written by any combination of one or more programming languages, and specifically, these computing programs can be implemented using high-level process and / or object-oriented programming languages. Programming languages ​​include but are not limited to programming languages ​​such as Java, C++, python, C language or similar. The program code can be executed completely on the user computing device, partially on the user device, partially on the remote computing device, or completely on the remote computing device or server. In the case of a remote computing device, the remote computing device can be connected to the user computing device through any type of network, including a local area network or a wide area network, or can be connected to an external computing device.

[0098] The flowcharts and block diagrams in the accompanying drawings illustrate the possible architecture, functions and operations of the systems, methods and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present invention. In this regard, each box in the flowchart or block diagram may represent a module, a program segment, or a part of a code, and the above-mentioned module, program segment, or a part of the code contains one or more executable instructions for implementing the specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some alternative implementations, the functions marked in the box may also occur in a different order from the order marked in the accompanying drawings. For example, two boxes represented in succession can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they can sometimes be executed in the opposite order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each box in the block diagram or flowchart, and the combination of boxes in the block diagram or flowchart, can be implemented with a dedicated hardware-based system that performs the specified function or operation, or can be implemented with a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions. It can be understood by those skilled in the art that the features recorded in the various embodiments and / or claims of the present invention can be combined and / or combined in various ways, even if such a combination or combination is not explicitly recorded in the present invention. In particular, without departing from the spirit and teaching of the present invention, the features described in the various embodiments and / or claims of the present invention may be combined and / or combined in a variety of ways. All of these combinations and / or combinations fall within the scope of the present invention.

[0099] The embodiments of the present invention are described above. However, these embodiments are only for the purpose of illustration, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Although the embodiments are described above, this does not mean that the measures in the various embodiments cannot be used in combination. The scope of the present invention is limited by the attached claims and their equivalents. Without departing from the scope of the present invention, those skilled in the art may make various substitutions and modifications, which should all fall within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing human reliability of offshore HIPPS, characterized in that: include: Determine the allowable time for operators to make decisions and the response time for operators to make decisions in emergency situations of the High Integrity Pressure Protection System (HIPPS); Determine the behavioral characteristic parameters corresponding to the operator's decision-making; The human cognitive reliability model HCR is used to calculate the median response time according to the response time, the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision-making, and the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's environmental factors on the response time of the decision-making; Using a three-parameter Weibull distribution formula, the probability of first human failure is calculated according to the allowable time, the median of the response time, and the behavior characteristic parameter; The correction coefficient used to characterize the impact of the environment on the operator's response accuracy is used to correct the first human failure probability, and the second human failure probability used to characterize the human reliability of offshore HIPPS is obtained.

2. A method for analyzing human reliability of offshore HIPPS according to claim 1, characterized in that: The behavior characteristic parameters include: skill-based behavior characteristic parameters, rule-based behavior characteristic parameters and knowledge-based behavior characteristic parameters.

3. The method for analyzing human reliability of offshore HIPPS according to claim 1, characterized in that: The correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision-making includes: an operator experience correction coefficient, a stress level correction coefficient and a man-machine system correction coefficient.

4. The method for analyzing human reliability of offshore HIPPS according to claim 1, characterized in that: The correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the environmental factors of the operator on the response time of the decision-making includes: correction parameters for the influence of the temperature and wind speed of the environment on the response time of the operator's decision-making, correction parameters for the influence of the noise of the environment on the response time of the operator's decision-making, and correction parameters for the influence of the movement of the marine platform on the response time of the operator's decision-making.

5. The method for analyzing human reliability of offshore HIPPS according to claim 1, characterized in that: The correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the environment on the operator's response accuracy includes: correction parameters for the influence of the temperature and humidity of the environment on the operator's response accuracy, correction parameters for the influence of the noise of the environment on the operator's response accuracy, and correction parameters for the influence of the movement of the offshore platform on the operator's response accuracy.

6. The method for analyzing human reliability of offshore HIPPS according to claim 3, characterized in that: The correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision is obtained through a simulator test.

7. A device for analyzing human reliability of offshore HIPPS, characterized by: The device comprises: The first determination module is used to determine the allowable time for operators of the high integrity pressure protection system HIPPS to make decisions and the response time for operators to make decisions in an emergency situation; The second determination module is used to determine the behavior characteristic parameters corresponding to the operator's decision-making; A first calculation module is used to calculate the median response time using a human cognitive reliability model HCR according to the response time, a correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's own factors on the response time of the decision, and a correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the operator's environmental factors on the response time of the decision; A second calculation module is used to calculate the first human failure probability according to the allowed time, the median response time and the behavior characteristic parameter by using a three-parameter Weibull distribution formula; The third calculation module is used to correct the first human failure probability by using the correction coefficient used to characterize the influence of the environment on the accuracy of the operator's response, so as to obtain the second human failure probability used to characterize the human reliability of the offshore HIPPS.

8. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: one or more processors; A storage device for storing one or more programs, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors are caused to perform the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the method described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

Images