A method for evaluating the construction carbon emissions of a construction project

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method for evaluating the construction carbon emissions of a construction project, belonging to the technical field of carbon emissions evaluation, and comprising the following steps: S1, constructing a BIM model for the construction project and obtaining the carbon emissions of each component in the BIM model at the historical construction moments during the constructed period; S2, determining the construction emission correlation coefficient; S3, predicting the overall carbon emissions of the construction project at the next moment; S4, when the overall carbon emissions at the next moment exceed the set threshold, setting the evaluation result of the construction project as abnormal. The invention can generate a construction emission correlation coefficient for components according to the carbon emissions of different component construction processes, thereby realizing the dynamic evaluation of the carbon emissions in different construction stages and different component types, so that the method of the present invention can be applied to various complex and changeable construction environments. The construction unit can adjust the construction plan and optimize the construction method in a timely manner according to the prediction results to achieve the emission reduction target.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of carbon emission assessment, and particularly relates to a method for assessing the construction carbon emissions of a construction project. Background Art

[0002] With the increasingly severe global climate change, reducing carbon emissions has become a global consensus. In the construction field, the carbon emissions generated during the construction process account for a considerable part. Therefore, accurately assessing the construction carbon emissions of a construction project and taking corresponding emission reduction measures are of great significance for realizing green and low-carbon construction.

[0003] Most traditional methods for assessing construction carbon emissions rely on empirical estimation or simple mathematical models. These methods often have problems such as insufficient assessment accuracy and difficulty in adapting to complex and changeable construction environments. At the same time, since the carbon emissions during the construction process of a construction project are affected by various factors, such as the construction period of components, traditional assessment methods often have difficulty in comprehensively and accurately reflecting the carbon emission situation during the construction process. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention proposes a method for assessing the construction carbon emissions of a construction project.

[0005] The technical solution of the present invention is: a method for assessing the construction carbon emissions of a construction project includes the following steps:

[0006] S1. Construct a BIM model for the construction project and obtain the carbon emissions of each component in the BIM model at the historical construction moments during the constructed period.

[0007] S2. Generate a main emission index and a carbon emission dynamic arc for the component according to the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment during the constructed period, and determine the construction emission correlation coefficient.

[0008] S3. Calculate the full-life cycle weight according to the construction period of each component and the construction emission correlation coefficient, and use the full-life cycle weights of each component and the LOF method to predict the overall carbon emissions of the construction project at the next moment.

[0009] S4. When the overall carbon emissions at the next moment exceed the set threshold, set the assessment result of the construction project as abnormal.

[0010] Further, S2 includes the following sub-steps:

[0011] S21. Calculate the main emission index of the component during the constructed period according to the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment during the constructed period.

[0012] S22. Take each historical construction moment during the constructed period as the horizontal axis, and take the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment as the vertical axis to generate the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component;

[0013] S23. Determine the construction emission correlation coefficient according to the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component and the main emission index during the constructed period.

[0014] The beneficial effects of the above further solution are as follows: In the present invention, by calculating the main emission index of the component during the constructed period and generating the carbon emission dynamic arc, the carbon emission changes of the component during the construction process are systematically considered, which can comprehensively reflect the carbon emissions of the component in different construction stages and provide strong support for subsequent carbon emission prediction. The carbon emission dynamic arc can intuitively show the change trend of the carbon emissions of the component during the construction process.

[0015] Further, in S21, the main emission index of the component during the constructed period The calculation formula is:

[0016] ;

[0017] In the formula, represents the carbon emission at the 25th percentile after sorting the carbon emissions of the component at the historical construction moments from small to large, represents the carbon emission at the 75th percentile after sorting the carbon emissions of the component at the historical construction moments from small to large, represents the index.

[0018] If there are no corresponding carbon emissions at the 25th percentile and the 75th percentile after sorting the carbon emissions at each historical construction moment, then take the average value of the two carbon emissions closest to 25%, and the same applies to 75%.

[0019] Further, S23 includes the following sub-steps:

[0020] S231. Take the product of the maximum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period and the main emission index as the preset hyperparameter;

[0021] S232. Use a sliding window to traverse the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component;

[0022] S233. Determine the traversal result of the sliding window according to the preset hyperparameter to generate the construction emission correlation coefficient for the component.

[0023] The beneficial effects of the above further solution are as follows: In the present invention, by using the product of the maximum carbon emission of a component during the constructed period and the main emission index as the preset hyperparameter, the consideration of extreme values helps to ensure that the generated construction emission correlation coefficient can reflect the characteristics of the component in a high-emission state, thereby enhancing the robustness of the evaluation result. The traversal process of the sliding window can capture the change trend and fluctuation characteristics of carbon emissions, taking into account both the local characteristics of the carbon emissions of the component (such as the emissions during a certain time period) and the overall trend (such as the change in emissions during the entire construction period). The combination of local and overall aspects helps to more comprehensively evaluate the carbon emissions of the component.

[0024] Further, in S233, the construction emission correlation coefficient of the component is calculated by the formula:

[0025] ;

[0026] In the formula, represents the th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window, represents the carbon emission at the next extreme value point of the th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter in the carbon emission dynamic arc, represents the historical construction moment corresponding to the th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window, represents the historical construction moment corresponding to the next extreme value point of the th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter in the carbon emission dynamic arc, represents the maximum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, represents the minimum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, represents the historical construction moment corresponding to the maximum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, represents the historical construction moment corresponding to the minimum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, represents the size of the sliding window, represents the number of carbon emissions greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window.

[0027] Further, S3 includes the following sub-steps:

[0028] S31. Calculate the full-life cycle weight for the component according to the construction period of the component and the construction emission correlation coefficient;

[0029] S32. Calculate the mean value of the carbon emissions of all components at each historical construction moment during the constructed period, and generate a time-based average carbon emission sequence for the construction project;

[0030] S33. Extract the LOF factors at each historical construction moment in the time-based average carbon emission sequence;

[0031] S34. Predict the overall carbon emissions at the next moment for the construction project based on the LOF factors at all historical construction moments.

[0032] The beneficial effects of the above further solution are as follows: In the present invention, by calculating the full-life cycle weight for components, considering the construction duration of the components and the construction emission correlation coefficient, it can more accurately reflect the carbon emission contribution degree of components in different construction stages, which helps to determine the key points of emission reduction. Extract the LOF (Local Outlier Factor) factors at each historical construction moment in the time-based average carbon emission sequence. These outliers or mutation points may reflect certain special situations or problems in the construction process and have a greater impact on future carbon emissions compared to normal points. The predicted carbon emissions obtained are based on historical data and trend analysis, with high accuracy and reliability.

[0033] Further, in S31, the full-life cycle weight of the component The calculation formula is:

[0034] ;

[0035] In the formula, represents the total number of historical construction moments in the constructed period, represents the estimated construction period of the component, represents the remaining construction period for the component to complete construction, represents the construction emission correlation coefficient of the component.

[0036] Further, in S34, the overall carbon emissions at the next moment for the construction project The calculation formula is:

[0037] ;

[0038] In the formula, represents the full-life cycle weight of the th component, represents the total number of all components in the construction project, represents the average value of all carbon emissions in the constructed period of the construction project, represents the LOF factor at the th historical construction moment in the constructed period, represents the total number of historical construction moments in the constructed period.

[0039] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: The present invention discloses a method for evaluating construction carbon emissions based on building information modeling technology, which can realize the informatization management of the whole life cycle of construction projects, including all construction stages, can comprehensively analyze each component of construction projects, and is more scientific and accurate than traditional empirical estimation or simple mathematical models for accurately evaluating construction carbon emissions; The present invention can generate construction emission correlation coefficients for components according to the carbon emissions of different components during the construction process, so as to realize the dynamic evaluation of carbon emissions in different construction stages and different component types, making the method of the present invention applicable to various complex and changeable construction environments; Construction units can adjust the construction plan in a timely manner according to the prediction results and optimize the construction method to achieve the emission reduction goal. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the method for evaluating construction carbon emissions of a construction project. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0041] The embodiments of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the drawings.

[0042] As Figure 1 shown, the present invention provides a method for evaluating construction carbon emissions of a construction project, including the following steps:

[0043] S1. Construct a BIM model for the construction project and obtain the carbon emissions of each component in the BIM model at the historical construction moments during the constructed period;

[0044] S2. Generate a main emission index and a carbon emission dynamic arc for the component according to the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment during the constructed period, and determine the construction emission correlation coefficient;

[0045] S3. Calculate the full life cycle weight according to the construction period of each component and the construction emission correlation coefficient, and use the full life cycle weight of each component and the LOF method to predict the overall carbon emissions of the construction project at the next moment;

[0046] S4. When the overall carbon emissions at the next moment exceed the set threshold, set the evaluation result of the construction project as abnormal.

[0047] In the embodiment of the present invention, S2 includes the following sub-steps:

[0048] S21. Calculate the main emission index of the component during the constructed period according to the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment during the constructed period;

[0049] S22. Take each historical construction moment in the constructed period as the horizontal axis, and take the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment as the vertical axis to generate the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component.

[0050] S23. Determine the construction emission correlation coefficient according to the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component and the main emission index in the constructed period.

[0051] In the present invention, by calculating the main emission index of the component in the constructed period and generating the carbon emission dynamic arc, the carbon emission changes of the component during the construction process are systematically considered, which can comprehensively reflect the carbon emission situation of the component in different construction stages and provide strong support for subsequent carbon emission prediction. The carbon emission dynamic arc can intuitively show the change trend of the carbon emissions of the component during the construction process.

[0052] In the embodiment of the present invention, in S21, the main emission index of the component in the constructed period The calculation formula is:

[0053] ;

[0054] In the formula, represents the carbon emissions at the 25% position after sorting the carbon emissions of the component at the historical construction moments from small to large, represents the carbon emissions at the 75% position after sorting the carbon emissions of the component at the historical construction moments from small to large, represents the index.

[0055] If there are no corresponding carbon emissions at the 25% and 75% positions after sorting the carbon emissions at each historical construction moment, the average value of the two carbon emissions closest to 25% is taken, and the same applies to 75%.

[0056] In the embodiment of the present invention, S23 includes the following sub-steps:

[0057] S231. Take the product of the maximum carbon emissions of the component in the constructed period and the main emission index as the preset hyperparameter;

[0058] S232. Traverse the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component using a sliding window;

[0059] S233. Determine the traversal result of the sliding window according to the preset hyperparameter to generate the construction emission correlation coefficient for the component.

[0060] In the present invention, by taking the product of the maximum carbon emission of a component during the constructed period and the main emission index as a preset hyperparameter, the consideration of extreme values helps to ensure that the generated construction emission correlation coefficient can reflect the characteristics of the component in a high-emission state, thereby enhancing the robustness of the evaluation result. The traversal process of the sliding window can capture the change trend and fluctuation characteristics of carbon emissions, taking into account both the local characteristics of the carbon emissions of the component (such as the emissions in a certain time period) and the overall trend (such as the change in emissions during the entire construction period). The combination of local and overall aspects helps to more comprehensively evaluate the carbon emissions of the component.

[0061] In the embodiment of the present invention, in S233, the construction emission correlation coefficient of the component is calculated by the following formula:

[0062] ;

[0063] In the formula, represents the th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window, represents the carbon emission at the next extreme value point of the th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter in the carbon emission dynamic arc, represents the historical construction moment corresponding to the th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window, represents the historical construction moment corresponding to the next extreme value point of the th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter in the carbon emission dynamic arc, represents the maximum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, represents the minimum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, represents the historical construction moment corresponding to the maximum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, represents the historical construction moment corresponding to the minimum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, represents the size of the sliding window, represents the number of carbon emissions greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window.

[0064] In the embodiment of the present invention, S3 includes the following sub-steps:

[0065] S31. Calculate the full-life cycle weight for the component according to the construction period of the component and the construction emission correlation coefficient;

[0066] S32. Calculate the mean value of the carbon emissions of all components at each historical construction moment during the constructed period to generate a time-based average carbon emission sequence for the construction project;

[0067] S33. Extract the LOF factors at each historical construction moment in the time-based average carbon emission sequence;

[0068] S34. Predict the overall carbon emissions at the next moment for the construction project based on the LOF factors at all historical construction moments.

[0069] In the present invention, by calculating the full life cycle weight for components, considering the construction duration of the components and the construction emission correlation coefficient, it can more accurately reflect the carbon emission contribution degree of components in different construction stages, and helps to determine the key points of emission reduction. Extract the LOF (Local Outlier Factor) factors at each historical construction moment in the time-based average carbon emission sequence. These outliers or mutation points may reflect certain special situations or problems during the construction process, and have a greater impact on future carbon emissions compared to normal points. The predicted carbon emissions obtained therefrom are based on historical data and trend analysis, and have high accuracy and reliability.

[0070] In the embodiment of the present invention, in S31, the full life cycle weight of the component has the following calculation formula:

[0071] ;

[0072] In the formula, represents the total number of historical construction moments in the constructed period, represents the estimated construction period of the component, represents the remaining construction period for the component to complete construction, represents the construction emission correlation coefficient of the component.

[0073] In the embodiment of the present invention, in S34, the overall carbon emissions at the next moment for the construction project has the following calculation formula:

[0074] ;

[0075] In the formula, represents the full life cycle weight of the th component, represents the total number of all components of the construction project, represents the average value of all carbon emissions in the constructed period of the construction project, represents the LOF factor at the th historical construction moment in the constructed period, represents the total number of historical construction moments in the constructed period.

[0076] Those of ordinary skill in the art will realize that the embodiments described herein are provided to assist the reader in understanding the principles of the present invention, and it should be understood that the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited to such specific statements and embodiments. Those of ordinary skill in the art can make various other specific deformations and combinations that do not depart from the essence of the present invention based on these technical revelations disclosed in the present invention, and these deformations and combinations are still within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the construction carbon emissions of a construction project, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: S1. Construct a BIM model for the construction project and obtain the carbon emissions of each component in the BIM model at the historical construction moments during the constructed period; S2. Generate a main emission index and a carbon emission dynamic arc for the component according to the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment during the constructed period, and determine the construction emission correlation coefficient; S3. Calculate the full-life cycle weight according to the construction period of each component and the construction emission correlation coefficient, and use the full-life cycle weights of each component and the LOF method to predict the overall carbon emissions of the construction project at the next moment; S4. When the overall carbon emissions at the next moment exceed the set threshold, set the evaluation result of the construction project as abnormal; The S2 includes the following sub-steps: S21. Calculate the main emission index of the component during the constructed period according to the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment during the constructed period; S22. Use each historical construction moment during the constructed period as the horizontal axis and the carbon emissions of the component at each historical construction moment as the vertical axis to generate the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component; S23. Determine the construction emission correlation coefficient based on the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component and the main emission index during the constructed period; in S21, the main emission index C main of the component during the constructed period is calculated by the following formula: In the formula, c1 represents the carbon emissions at the 25% percentile after sorting the carbon emissions of the component at the historical construction moments from small to large, c3 represents the carbon emissions at the 75% percentile after sorting the carbon emissions of the component at the historical construction moments from small to large, and e represents the exponent; The S23 includes the following sub-steps: S231. Use the product of the maximum carbon emissions of the component during the constructed period and the main emission index as the preset hyperparameter; S232. Traverse the carbon emission dynamic arc of the component using a sliding window; S233. Determine the traversal result of the sliding window according to the preset hyperparameter and generate the construction emission correlation coefficient for the component; In the above S233, the construction emission correlation coefficient O of the component * is calculated by the following formula: Where e k represents the k-th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window, and e' k represents the carbon emission at the next extreme point of the k-th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter in the carbon emission dynamic arc, t k represents the historical construction time corresponding to the k-th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window, and t' k represents the historical construction time corresponding to the next extreme point of the k-th carbon emission greater than the preset hyperparameter in the carbon emission dynamic arc, e max represents the maximum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, and e min represents the minimum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, and t max represents the historical construction time corresponding to the maximum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, and t min represents the historical construction time corresponding to the minimum carbon emission of the component during the constructed period, and t win represents the size of the sliding window, and K represents the number of carbon emissions greater than the preset hyperparameter extracted by the sliding window.

2. The construction carbon emission assessment method for construction projects according to claim 1, characterized in that The S3 includes the following sub-steps: S31. Calculate the full-life cycle weight for the component according to the construction period of the component and the construction emission correlation coefficient; S32. Calculate the mean value of the carbon emissions of all components at each historical construction moment during the constructed period to generate a time-based average carbon emission sequence for the construction project; S33. Extract the LOF factors at each historical construction moment in the time-based average carbon emission sequence; S34. Predict the overall carbon emissions of the construction project at the next moment according to the LOF factors at all historical construction moments.

3. The construction carbon emission assessment method for construction projects according to claim 2, characterized in that In the S31, the calculation formula for the full-life cycle weight β of the component is: where T represents the total number of historical construction times in the constructed period, T pre represents the estimated construction period of the component, T else represents the remaining construction period for the component to complete construction, O * represents the construction emission correlation coefficient of the component.

4. The method for evaluating the construction carbon emissions of a construction project according to claim 3, characterized in that, In S34, the overall carbon emission O of the construction project at the next moment future is calculated by the following formula: Where, β j represents the full - life - cycle weight of the j - th component, J represents the number of all components of the construction project, represents the average value of all carbon emissions during the period when the construction project has been under construction, LOF t represents the LOF factor at the t - th historical construction moment during the period when the construction project has been under construction, T represents the total number of historical construction moments during the period when the construction project has been under construction.

Images