Chemical industrial park lightning stroke storage tank accident risk assessment method based on mixed causal logic and related device

By constructing a mixed causal logic method of event sequence diagram, fault tree and fuzzy Bayesian model, the problem that traditional methods are difficult to accurately evaluate the risk of lightning-striking storage tank accidents in chemical parks is solved, and detailed risk assessment and prevention and control measures are achieved.

CN120013231APending Publication Date: 2025-05-16XI'AN UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE AND TECHNOLOGY
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202510069836.5
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-01-16
Publication Date
2025-05-16

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Traditional natural technology accident research models are difficult to fully consider the complexity and uncertainty under the coupling effect of multiple disasters, and it is difficult to accurately simulate the specific impact process of disaster events on park equipment, resulting in the inaccurate assessment of the risk of lightning-striking storage tank accidents in chemical parks.

Method used

Using a method based on mixed causal logic, an event sequence diagram model, a fault tree model and a fuzzy Bayesian model are constructed by obtaining lightning-striking storage tank accident data in chemical parks. These models are combined to construct a mixed causal logic risk evaluation model for storage tanks for quantitative analysis and qualitative evaluation of accident risks.

Benefits of technology

A detailed risk assessment of lightning-striking storage tank accidents in chemical parks has been achieved, and it can accurately identify certain and non-deterministic risk factors, quantify the probability and consequences of the accident, optimize prevention and control technical measures, and improve the comprehensive prevention and control capabilities of lightning-striking and fire in the storage tank area.

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of chemical industry park storage tank safety risk evaluation, and discloses a chemical industry park lightning stroke storage tank accident risk evaluation method based on mixed causal logic and a related device, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining chemical industry park lightning stroke storage tank accident data, and constructing an event sequence diagram model; performing scenario analysis on the event sequence diagram model, and identifying deterministic risk factors and non-deterministic risk factors; constructing a fault tree model according to the deterministic risk factors; constructing a fuzzy Bayesian model according to the non-deterministic risk factors; using the event sequence diagram model, the fault tree model and the fuzzy Bayesian model to construct a storage tank hybrid causal logic risk evaluation model of the chemical industrial park induced by lightning stroke; and utilizing the storage tank mixed causal logic risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of the lightning stroke storage tank accident in the chemical industry park. The method can effectively realize scene deduction of natural technical accidents, and is used for evaluating and improving existing risk management strategies, so that the occurrence probability and influence of the accidents are reduced.
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