Method and system for predicting hazard range of rock slope disasters

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and reduction, in particular to a rock slope disaster hazard range prediction method and system, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining the geological environment information of a rock slope disaster, and selecting a key influence index of the rock slope disaster hazard range according to the geological environment information of the rock slope disaster; establishing a quantitative determination method of the key influence indexes, and obtaining quantitative results of different key influence indexes according to the quantitative determination method; based on the test data and the quantitative result, constructing a quantitative change relational expression between the rock slope disaster hazard range and the key influence index; and according to the quantitative change relational expression, determining a rock slope disaster hazard range prediction model, and utilizing the rock slope disaster hazard range prediction model to analyze and predict the hazard range of the rock slope disaster. The key influence indexes and the mathematical model are set, so that the engineering cost can be reduced, and the working efficiency and the result accuracy are improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and mitigation, and in particular to a method and system for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster. Background Art

[0002] Slippery slopes are mainly formed in the periglacial zone of arid, semi-arid and high-altitude cold regions. They are a typical type of geological disaster. Their surface is covered with relatively uniform rock particles, which can reach tens or even hundreds of meters in height and are distributed linearly along traffic routes in the form of cones or columns.

[0003] At present, rock slides are common in high mountainous and cold areas, earthquake-prone areas, and semi-arid and arid areas, especially along the highway from the Karakoram to the Himalayas, such as the Sust (K716) to Bitakshi Village (K792) section of the China-Pakistan Highway. Rock slides have become the main engineering geological problem on this section. Rock particles often roll down from the cliffs at the top of the slope, destroying the road surface and squeezing and occupying the roadbed. In extreme cases, rock slides may even block the highway, causing traffic interruptions and traffic accidents. However, research on the scope of rock slide hazards is relatively scarce, and the understanding of the scope of rock slide hazards is very limited. Existing technologies cannot meet the actual needs of regional engineering construction and disaster prevention. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the defects of existing methods and the shortcomings of practical applications, due to the limitations of existing technologies in the assessment of the hazard range of rock slide disasters and the shortcomings in practical applications, in order to fill the gap in this technical field, a method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disasters is proposed, aiming to quickly and accurately define the regional scope that may be affected by rock slide disasters. In the first aspect, the present invention provides a method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disasters, the method comprising the following steps: obtaining geological environmental information of rock slide disasters, selecting key influencing indicators of the hazard range of rock slide disasters according to the geological environmental information of rock slide disasters; establishing a quantitative determination method of key influencing indicators, and obtaining quantitative results of different key influencing indicators according to the quantitative determination method; constructing a quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of rock slide disasters and key influencing indicators based on test data and the quantitative results; determining a prediction model for the hazard range of rock slide disasters according to the quantitative change relationship, and using the prediction model for the hazard range of rock slide disasters to analyze and predict the hazard range of rock slide disasters. The present invention comprehensively considers a variety of prediction reference indicators and analysis functions, can more accurately predict the hazard range of rock slide disasters, help reduce prediction errors, and improve the reliability of disaster warnings.

[0005] Optionally, the key influencing index of the hazard range of the calamity slope disaster selected according to the geological environment information of the calamity slope disaster includes: selecting the first key influencing index, the second key influencing index, the third key influencing index and the fourth key influencing index of the calamity slope disaster hazard range according to the geological environment information of the calamity slope disaster; the first key influencing index includes: the content of particle size of 10~40mm in the calamity slope particle grading, the content ratio of particle size of 10~20mm and 20~40mm in the calamity slope particle grading, and the content ratio of particle size less than 10mm and greater than 40mm in the calamity slope particle grading; the second key influencing index includes: the terrain slope of the calamity slope slippery area; the third key influencing index includes: the terrain slope of the calamity slope accumulation area; the fourth key influencing index includes: the potential source quality of the calamity slope source area that causes the calamity slope disaster. The present invention comprehensively considers multiple key influencing indicators to more comprehensively capture various influencing factors that affect the hazard range of the calamity slope disaster, significantly improves the accuracy of the prediction method, and makes the prediction result closer to the actual situation.

[0006] Optionally, the method for establishing a quantitative determination method of key impact indicators includes: establishing a first key impact indicator calculation method, a second key impact indicator calculation method, a third key impact indicator calculation method, and a fourth key impact indicator calculation method based on the key impact indicators. The key impact indicator calculation method of the present invention can ensure that each indicator is accurately and comprehensively evaluated, thereby more accurately capturing the changes and trends of different indicators.

[0007] Optionally, the first key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship:

[0008] in, represents the i-th particle size distribution content of the slitting slope, represents the quality of the i-th particle size distribution of the rubble slope, It represents the total mass of the gravel slope sample for the particle analysis test; The second key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship:

[0009] in, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the vertical height of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide. Indicates the horizontal distance of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide; The third key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship:

[0010] in, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, Indicates the vertical height of the rock slide accumulation area. Indicates the horizontal distance of the rock slide accumulation area; The fourth key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship:

[0011] in, represents the potential source quality of the slitting slope source area that causes the slitting slope disaster, 2900 represents the average density of the source in the slitting slope source area, It represents the area of ​​strong and moderate weathering in the source area of ​​the sloping slope. Indicates the thickness of the strata in the strong to moderate weathering area of ​​the Liushipo source area.

[0012] The key influencing indicator calculation method of the present invention allows the prediction results to be verified and calibrated through actual observation data, which helps to continuously optimize the key influencing indicator calculation method and improve its analysis ability and accuracy.

[0013] Optionally, the quantitative results of different key influencing indicators obtained according to the quantitative determination method include: using the first key influencing indicator calculation method to obtain different particle grading contents of the gliding stone slope, the different particle grading contents of the gliding stone slope include the content of particle sizes of 10-40 mm in the gliding stone slope particle grading, the content ratio of particle sizes of 10-20 mm to 20-40 mm in the gliding stone slope particle grading, and the content ratio of particle sizes less than 10 mm to greater than 40 mm in the gliding stone slope particle grading; obtaining the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the gliding stone slope according to the second key influencing indicator calculation method; obtaining the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the gliding stone slope according to the third key influencing indicator calculation method. The terrain slope to the caltrop accumulation area; the potential source quality of the caltrop source area that causes the caltrop disaster is obtained according to the fourth key influencing indicator calculation method; combined with the content of particle size 10-40mm in the caltrop particle grading, the content ratio of particle size 10-20mm to 20-40mm in the caltrop particle grading, the content ratio of particle size less than 10mm to greater than 40mm in the caltrop particle grading, the terrain slope of the caltrop sliding area, the terrain slope of the caltrop accumulation area and the potential source quality of the caltrop source area that causes the caltrop disaster, the quantitative results of different key influencing indicators are obtained.

[0014] Optionally, the quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the calamity slope disaster and the key influencing indicators constructed based on the test data and the quantitative results includes: combining the content of particle sizes of 10-40 mm in the calamity slope particle grading, the content ratio of particle sizes of 10-20 mm to 20-40 mm in the calamity slope particle grading, the content ratio of particle sizes less than 10 mm to greater than 40 mm in the calamity slope particle grading, the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the calamity slope, the terrain slope of the accumulation area of ​​the calamity slope, the potential source quality of the calamity slope source area that causes the calamity slope disaster and the test data of the hazard range of the calamity slope disaster to establish the quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the calamity slope disaster and the key influencing indicators.

[0015] The present invention combines the test data with the key influencing indicators to establish a more accurate quantitative change relationship, which can more accurately reflect the inherent relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and various influencing factors, thereby improving the accuracy of disaster prediction.

[0016] Optionally, the quantitative change relationship satisfies the following relationship: , in, Indicates the scope of hazards caused by rock slide disasters. It indicates the content of particle size of 10~40mm in the grading of Liushipo particles. It indicates the content ratio of 10~20mm to 20~40mm in the particle size distribution of the slippery slope. It indicates the content ratio of particles with a diameter less than 10 mm to those with a diameter greater than 40 mm in the grading of the slitting slope particles. Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, The present invention can more accurately analyze the relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and key influencing indicators through quantitative change relationship, more accurately predict the hazard degree and impact range of the rock slide disaster, and provide strong support for disaster warning and emergency response.

[0017] Optionally, the method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster further includes: introducing a linear model, a logarithmic model, an exponential model, and a power function model based on a theoretical analysis model; and determining a model for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster by combining the quantitative change relationship, the linear model, the logarithmic model, the exponential model, and the power function model. The present invention introduces a variety of mathematical models to enrich the types of prediction models, making the prediction method more flexible and diverse, so that the present invention can be applied to different scenarios and data features, thereby improving the adaptability of the prediction model.

[0018] Optionally, determining a prediction model for the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to the quantitative change relationship includes: The rock slide disaster hazard range prediction model satisfies the following relationship: , in, Indicates the scope of hazards caused by rock slide disasters. It indicates the content of particle size of 10~40mm in the grading of Liushipo particles. It indicates the content ratio of 10~20mm to 20~40mm in the particle size distribution of the slippery slope. It indicates the content ratio of particles with a diameter less than 10 mm to those with a diameter greater than 40 mm in the grading of the slitting slope particles. Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, The potential source quality of the tumble slope source area that causes the tumble slope disaster is indicated; the prediction result of the tumble slope disaster hazard range is obtained based on the tumble slope disaster hazard range prediction model; the tumble slope disaster hazard range is comprehensively analyzed in combination with the prediction result, the key influencing indicators and the tumble slope geological environment information. The prediction model of the present invention integrates a variety of mathematical models and quantitative change relationship formulas, can more comprehensively consider various key factors affecting the tumble slope disaster hazard range, and can accurately reflect the physical mechanism and influencing factors of the disaster.

[0019] In the second aspect, the present invention further provides a system for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster, which can efficiently execute a method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster provided by the present invention, wherein the system includes an input device, a processor, an output device, and a memory, wherein the input device, the processor, the output device, and the memory are interconnected, the memory includes a computer-readable storage medium as described in the first aspect of the present invention, the memory is used to store a computer program, the computer program includes program instructions, and the processor is configured to call program instructions. The system for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster provided by the present invention has a compact structure, strong applicability, and greatly improves the operating efficiency. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0020] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disaster of the present invention; Figure 2 It is a structural schematic diagram of the system for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disasters of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0021] The specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below. It should be noted that the embodiments described herein are only for illustration and are not intended to limit the present invention. In the following description, a large number of specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. However, it is obvious to those of ordinary skill in the art that these specific details do not need to be adopted to implement the present invention. In other examples, in order to avoid confusing the present invention, known circuits, software or methods are not specifically described.

[0022] Throughout the specification, references to "one embodiment," "an embodiment," "an example," or "an example" mean that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in conjunction with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment of the present invention. Therefore, the phrases "in one embodiment," "in an embodiment," "an example," or "an example" appearing in various places throughout the specification do not necessarily all refer to the same embodiment or example. In addition, particular features, structures, or characteristics may be combined in one or more embodiments or examples in any suitable combination and / or subcombination. In addition, it should be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that the figures provided herein are for illustrative purposes and that the figures are not necessarily drawn to scale.

[0023] See also Figure 1 Due to the limitations and shortcomings of the hazard range analysis technology of rock slide disaster, a method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disaster is proposed, which can quickly and accurately define the area that may be affected by the rock slide disaster, thereby effectively responding to the disaster risk. The present invention provides a method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disaster, and the above-mentioned method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disaster includes the following steps: S1. Obtain geological environment information of rock slide disaster, and select key influencing indicators of rock slide disaster hazard range according to the geological environment information of rock slide disaster. The implementation steps and specific contents are as follows: First, obtain the geological environment information of the rock slide disaster.

[0024] Systematically collect and organize geological environmental information on rock slide hazards. The above data mainly covers key influencing indicators of rock slide particle grading, particle size distribution, terrain slope, and potential material source quality on its hazard range. At the same time, it is also necessary to fully obtain environmental information on the area where the rock slide is located, including but not limited to geological structure, climate conditions, vegetation coverage, and the impact of human activities. Relevant information will help to deeply understand the hazard range of rock slide hazards and optimize prediction models. Therefore, comprehensive collection and analysis of geological environmental information on rock slide hazards can lay an information foundation for subsequent disaster hazard range prediction methods.

[0025] According to the above geological environment information of the rock slide disaster, the first key influencing indicator, the second key influencing indicator, the third key influencing indicator and the fourth key influencing indicator of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster are selected.

[0026] Based on the acquired geological environment information of rock slide disaster, four key influencing indicators were selected to predict the hazard scope of rock slide disaster.

[0027] The first key influencing index mainly comes from the particle grading characteristics of the gliding stone slope. The first key influencing index mainly includes: the content of particle sizes of 10-40mm in the gliding stone slope particle grading, the content ratio of particle sizes of 10-20mm and 20-40mm in the gliding stone slope particle grading, and the content ratio of particle sizes less than 10mm and greater than 40mm in the gliding stone slope particle grading. Through particle analysis experiments, the percentage of particles with a particle size range of 10 to 40 mm, the content ratio of particles with a particle size of 10 to 20 mm and 20 to 40 mm, and the content ratio of particles with a particle size of less than 10 mm and greater than 40 mm are selected. The above particle grading indicators provide an important physical basis for predicting the scope of the gliding stone slope disaster.

[0028] The second key impact indicator mainly includes the terrain slope of the slippery slope. The second key impact indicator combines field survey data and remote sensing imaging technology, taking the terrain slope of the slippery slope as the second key impact indicator, and accurately measuring it in degrees. The above indicators are directly related to the movement speed and energy release when the slippery slope disaster occurs, and are the key factors in assessing its impact range.

[0029] The third key impact indicator includes the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area. The third key impact indicator also mainly relies on remote sensing imaging technology and field investigation methods. Taking the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area as the third key impact indicator is helpful to predict the potential accumulation area of ​​the rock slide disaster and the degree of damage it may cause.

[0030] The fourth key impact indicator includes the potential source quality of the tumble slope source area that causes the tumble slope disaster. The fourth key impact indicator is mainly derived from remote sensing image data and theoretical analysis, which quantifies the potential source quality that may cause disasters in the tumble slope source area. The potential source quality of the tumble slope source area that causes the tumble slope disaster is taken as the fourth key impact indicator. The above indicators directly reflect the potential scale and destructive power of the tumble slope disaster, and are an indispensable key consideration when formulating disaster prevention and mitigation measures.

[0031] Through the selection and setting of the above-mentioned key influencing indicators, the hazard scope of rock slide disasters can be assessed more comprehensively and accurately, providing a scientific basis for its early warning and response.

[0032] Furthermore, the above key impact indicators are marked separately, as follows; Among the first key impact indicators, It indicates the content of particle size of 10~40mm in the grading of Liushipo particles. It indicates the content ratio of 10~20mm to 20~40mm in the particle size distribution of the slippery slope. It indicates the content ratio of particles smaller than 10mm to particles larger than 40mm in the grading of slick slope particles.

[0033] The second key impact indicator is: Indicates the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide.

[0034] Among the third key impact indicators, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area.

[0035] In the fourth key impact indicator, It indicates the potential source quality of the rock slide source area that causes rock slide disasters.

[0036] Labeling different key impact indicators makes them clearer, easier to understand and remember. In the subsequent data analysis, model building and result interpretation process, the use of different labels can quickly identify the specific meaning of each indicator and avoid confusion.

[0037] Furthermore, the method for selecting key influencing indicators of the scope of rock slide disaster in the embodiment is only an optional condition of the present invention. In one or some other embodiments, the method for selecting key influencing indicators can be optimized according to the hazard situation of the rock slide disaster and the prediction requirements of the hazard scope. Different rock slide disasters have different characteristics and influencing factors. The method for selecting key influencing indicators is adjusted according to the actual situation to ensure the accuracy and applicability of the method for predicting the hazard scope of rock slide disaster.

[0038] S2. Establish a quantitative determination method for key impact indicators. According to the above quantitative determination method, obtain the quantitative results of different key impact indicators. The specific steps and implementation contents are as follows: The quantitative determination method of key impact indicators for the hazard range of rock slide disaster in the embodiment mainly includes a first key impact indicator calculation method, a second key impact indicator calculation method, a third key impact indicator calculation method and a fourth key impact indicator calculation method.

[0039] The first key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship:

[0040] in, represents the i-th particle size distribution content of the slitting slope, represents the quality of the i-th particle size distribution of the rubble slope, It represents the total mass of the gravel slope sample for the particle analysis test; The content of different particle gradations in the rubble slope reflects the proportion of particles within a certain particle size range in the rubble slope sample.

[0041] Wherein i is an index variable used to represent different particle gradations. In this embodiment, i specifically refers to the content of particle sizes of 10-40 mm, 10-20 mm, 20-40 mm, less than 10 mm and greater than 40 mm in the slitting slope particle gradation.

[0042] In order to obtain the quality of different particle gradations in the rubble slope, particles within a specific particle size range can be separated from the rubble slope sample by screening or other particle analysis methods, thereby measuring the quality of different particle gradations. The above mass values ​​reflect the actual number of particles within different particle size ranges in the sample.

[0043] Before conducting particle analysis, a certain amount of rubble slope sample is weighed for particle analysis test. The total mass of the rubble slope sample is the sample mass used for particle analysis test, which is the basis for calculating various particle grading contents.

[0044] When calculating the first key influencing indicator, the quality of each particle size distribution needs to be measured or calculated separately. and the total mass of the sample Then the content of each particle size distribution is obtained by the first key influencing index calculation method. The relevant content values ​​are helpful to evaluate the particle grading characteristics of the rock slide samples, and then provide a reference for predicting the hazard range of the rock slide disaster.

[0045] The second key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship:

[0046] in, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the vertical height of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide. Indicates the horizontal distance of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide; The terrain slope of the rock slide area is usually expressed in degrees (°) or radians (rad). The terrain slope is an important parameter to describe the degree of terrain inclination, reflecting the degree of inclination of the ground in a certain direction. In the prediction of the hazard range of rock slide disasters, the terrain slope is one of the key factors affecting the movement speed and energy release of the rock slide.

[0047] The vertical height of the sliding area of ​​a rock slide is usually expressed in meters (m) or other length units. The vertical height refers to the vertical distance from the starting point to the end point of the sliding area, reflecting the magnitude of the gravitational potential energy overcome by the rock slide during its sliding process. The greater the vertical height, the greater the energy released when the rock slides, and the greater the degree of damage caused by the disaster.

[0048] The horizontal distance of the sliding area of ​​the rock slide is also expressed in meters (m) or other length units. The horizontal distance refers to the horizontal projection distance from the starting point to the end point of the sliding area, reflecting the distance the rock slide moves horizontally during the sliding process. The ratio of the above horizontal distance to the vertical height (i.e. the slope) determines the sliding path and speed of the rock slide, thus affecting the scope of the disaster.

[0049] When calculating the second key influencing indicator, it is necessary to measure or calculate the vertical height and horizontal distance of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide respectively, and then calculate the terrain slope through the second key influencing indicator calculation method. The above slope value can be used to evaluate the inclination degree of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide, and then provide a reference for predicting the hazard range of the rock slide disaster.

[0050] The third key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship:

[0051] in, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, Indicates the vertical height of the rock slide accumulation area. Indicates the horizontal distance of the rock slide accumulation area; The terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area is similar to the second key influencing indicator and is expressed in degrees (°) or radians (rad). The terrain slope is a key influencing indicator for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disasters. It affects the accumulation morphology, accumulation thickness and possible impact force of the rock slide in the accumulation area. The greater the terrain slope of the above-mentioned accumulation area, the higher the speed and energy of the rock slide during accumulation, thereby increasing the degree of disaster damage.

[0052] The vertical height of the gravel slope accumulation area, that is, the vertical distance from the starting point (or a certain point) of the accumulation area to its bottom (or reference plane). The above indicators reflect the magnitude of the gravitational potential energy overcome by the gravel slope during the accumulation process, and the maximum height that the accumulation body may reach. The greater the vertical height, the greater the gravitational potential energy of the accumulation body, and the more serious the damage to the accumulation area and its surrounding environment.

[0053] The horizontal distance of the gravel slope accumulation area, that is, the horizontal projection distance between the starting point and the end point (or two points) of the accumulation area. The above indicators reflect the horizontal movement distance of the gravel slope during the accumulation process. The ratio of horizontal distance to vertical height (i.e. slope) determines the shape, stability and possible impact force of the accumulation body. Therefore, changes in horizontal distance will have a significant impact on the scope of disaster damage.

[0054] When calculating the third key influencing indicator, it is necessary to measure or calculate the vertical height and horizontal distance of the rock slide accumulation area respectively, and then calculate the terrain slope through the third key influencing indicator calculation method. The above slope value can be used to evaluate the inclination degree of the rock slide accumulation area, and then provide information support for predicting the hazard range, accumulation form and possible impact force of the rock slide disaster.

[0055] The fourth key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship:

[0056] in, represents the potential source quality of the slitting slope source area that causes the slitting slope disaster, 2900 represents the average density of the source in the slitting slope source area, It represents the area of ​​strong and moderate weathering in the source area of ​​the sloping slope. Indicates the thickness of the strata in the strong to moderate weathering area of ​​the Liushipo source area.

[0057] The quality of potential sources of rock slide disasters in the source area of ​​rock slide is a key indicator affecting the scope of rock slide disasters, and can assess the total amount of materials that may be involved in the occurrence of rock slide disasters. The greater the quality of potential sources, the more sources will participate in the movement when the disaster occurs, thereby increasing the degree of damage and the scope of impact of the disaster.

[0058] Strong and moderate weathering areas refer to areas where rocks or soils become loose and brittle due to weathering. Rocks or soils in these areas are prone to sliding or collapse under the action of external forces such as gravity, water flow or earthquakes, becoming potential sources of rock slide disasters. Therefore, the size of strong and moderate weathering areas directly affects the quality of potential sources.

[0059] The thickness of the stratum refers to the vertical distance from the surface to a specific stratum interface. In areas of strong to moderate weathering, the greater the stratum thickness, the more loose material sources are contained in the area. The relevant loose material sources are easily carried and involved in movement when a disaster occurs, thereby increasing the quality of potential material sources.

[0060] When calculating the fourth key influencing indicator, it is necessary to measure or calculate the area and stratum thickness of the strong and moderate weathering areas in the Liushipo source area, and then calculate the potential source quality through the fourth key influencing indicator calculation method. On the other hand, the above 2900 is the average density of the source in the Liushipo source area.

[0061] Then, the quantitative results of different key impact indicators are obtained based on the key impact indicator quantitative determination method.

[0062] The first key influencing indicator calculation method was used to obtain the content of different particle gradations of liushipo. The content of different particle gradations of liushipo mainly included the content of particle size of 10-40mm in the liushipo particle grading, the content ratio of particle size of 10-20mm to 20-40mm in the liushipo particle grading, and the content ratio of particle size less than 10mm to greater than 40mm in the liushipo particle grading.

[0063] The particle gradation content was analyzed and quantified, and the particle gradation content of different particle size ranges in the rubble slope was obtained using the first key influencing indicator calculation method, which included the content of particles in the range of 10-40mm, the content ratio between particles with a particle size of 10-20mm and 20-40mm, and the content ratio between particles with a particle size of less than 10mm and greater than 40mm. The above data provide an intuitive understanding of the material composition of the rubble slope.

[0064] The terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide is obtained according to the calculation method of the second key influencing index. For the determination of the terrain slope of the slippery area, the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide is calculated by applying the calculation method of the second key influencing index. The above index is crucial for evaluating the potential energy of the rock slide and the scope of damage it may cause.

[0065] The topographic slope of the rubble slope accumulation area was obtained according to the calculation method of the third key impact indicator. For the measurement of the topographic slope of the accumulation area, the topographic slope of the rubble slope accumulation area was further determined using the calculation method of the third key impact indicator. The relevant data is helpful to predict the distribution characteristics of the rubble slope in the accumulation area and its potential impact on the surrounding environment.

[0066] Based on the calculation method of the fourth key impact indicator, the potential source quality of the slick slope source area that may cause the slick slope disaster is obtained. The estimation of the potential source quality is scientifically estimated by the calculation method of the fourth key impact indicator. The above indicators are directly related to the scale of the disaster and the degree of damage it may cause.

[0067] Combined with the content of particle sizes of 10-40mm in the above-mentioned gravel slope particle grading, the ratio of particle sizes of 10-20mm to 20-40mm in the gravel slope particle grading, the ratio of particle sizes less than 10mm to greater than 40mm in the gravel slope particle grading, the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the gravel slope, the terrain slope of the accumulation area of ​​the gravel slope and the quality of potential sources in the source area of ​​the gravel slope that lead to the gravel slope disaster, we can obtain quantitative results of different key influencing indicators.

[0068] In summary, through a series of quantitative determination methods for key influencing indicators, key data on the content of different particle gradations in the rock slide, the terrain slope of the sliding zone and the accumulation zone, and the quality of potential material sources were obtained. The above data provide a data basis for the subsequent prediction of the scope of rock slide disasters.

[0069] Furthermore, the quantitative determination method of key influencing indicators in the present embodiment is only an optional condition of the present invention. In one or some other embodiments, the quantitative determination method of key influencing indicators can be optimized and upgraded according to the actual situation of the rock slide and the characteristic attributes of the key influencing indicators. Different rock slides have different geological, geomorphological and climatic conditions, so their disaster characteristics may also be different. The optimized calculation method can better adapt to environmental differences, provide more personalized prediction methods for different types of rock slides, and enhance the accuracy of the calculation results.

[0070] S3. Based on the test data and the quantitative results, a quantitative relationship between the scope of the rock slide disaster and the key impact indicators is constructed. The specific steps and implementation contents are as follows: In order to construct a quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of rock slide disaster and key influencing indicators, in order to deeply understand the relationship between the hazard range of rock slide disaster and key influencing indicators.

[0071] Based on the quantitative results of key influencing indicators such as the content of particle sizes of 10-40mm in the stone slope particle grading, the ratio of particle sizes of 10-20mm to 20-40mm in the stone slope particle grading, the ratio of particle sizes less than 10mm to greater than 40mm in the stone slope particle grading, the terrain slope of the stone slope sliding area, the terrain slope of the stone slope accumulation area, and the quality of potential sources in the stone slope source area that lead to stone slope disasters, the mutual change relationship between the hazard range of the stone slope disaster and the key influencing indicators is established.

[0072] Based on the key influencing indicators, including the content of different particle size ranges in the particle grading of the rock slide (10-40 mm, the content ratio of 10-20 mm to 20-40 mm, the content ratio of less than 10 mm to greater than 40 mm), the terrain slope of the sliding area and the accumulation area, and the quality of potential material sources, in order to further analyze the mutual change relationship between the key influencing indicators and the hazard range of the rock slide disaster, the embodiment expresses the intrinsic connection between the key influencing indicators and the hazard range of the disaster in the form of a mathematical function, that is, a quantitative change relationship is established.

[0073] The above quantitative change relationship satisfies the following relationship: , in, Indicates the scope of hazards caused by rock slide disasters. It indicates the content of particle size of 10~40mm in the grading of Liushipo particles. It indicates the content ratio of 10~20mm to 20~40mm in the particle size distribution of the slippery slope. It indicates the content ratio of particles with a diameter less than 10 mm to those with a diameter greater than 40 mm in the grading of the slitting slope particles. Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, It indicates the potential source quality of the rock slide source area that causes rock slide disasters.

[0074] In this embodiment, a linear model, a logarithmic model, an exponential model and a power function model are introduced based on the theoretical analysis model; and a prediction model for the hazard range of a rock slide disaster is determined by combining the quantitative change relationship, the linear model, the logarithmic model, the exponential model and the power function model.

[0075] In order to deeply explore the quantitative change relationship between key influencing indicators and the scope of disaster hazards, so as to effectively guide the prediction and assessment of the scope of disaster hazards, a variety of theoretical analysis models are introduced in the embodiment. The relevant models cover multiple dimensions of linear and nonlinear relationships. In addition to using linear models to reflect the proportional changes between variables, nonlinear models such as logarithmic models, exponential models and power function models are also included. The above nonlinear models are based on different mathematical assumptions and perspectives, providing a more flexible and complex way to capture and explain the possible nonlinear change relationship between key influencing indicators and the scope of disaster hazards of rock slides. Based on this, the mechanism of disaster occurrence can be more comprehensively understood, thereby improving the accuracy of disaster prediction and assessment.

[0076] Linear model, logarithmic model, exponential model and power function model are introduced for theoretical analysis, and the relevant information of the above theoretical analysis models is summarized in Table 1.

[0077] Table 1 Theoretical analysis model information table of the hazard range of rock slide disaster

[0078] Based on the information in Table 1, the linear model assumes that there is a direct linear relationship between the key influencing indicators and the hazard range of the rock slide disaster; the logarithmic model takes into account the nonlinear impact that the indicators may have on the hazard range, especially when the indicator value is large; the exponential model assumes that the hazard range increases exponentially with the increase of the indicator value; and the power function model provides another mathematical form to describe complex relationships.

[0079] a, b, c, d, e, f, and g in Table 1 are constants that can be obtained by fitting the test data. In order to determine the constant parameters in the above model, the embodiment uses the test data of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and the quantitative results of the key influencing indicators, and obtains the constant parameter values ​​through the data fitting method, thereby more accurately predicting the hazard range of the rock slide disaster under different conditions.

[0080] The embodiment combines the above-mentioned theoretical analysis models such as linear model, logarithmic model, exponential model and power function model to provide a comprehensive prediction and assessment tool for the hazard range of rock slide disasters. It can dynamically adjust and correct the hazard range of rock slide disasters according to actual observation data and prediction results, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of the prediction results, and at the same time provides support for a deep understanding of the relationship between the hazard range of rock slide disasters and key influencing indicators.

[0081] In order to explore the quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and the key influencing indicators, a series of rock slide disaster hazard range test schemes were designed and implemented in this embodiment. The above test schemes comprehensively considered the key influencing indicators of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster, namely, the content of particle sizes of 10-40 mm, the content ratio of particle sizes of 10-20 mm to 20-40 mm, the content ratio of particle sizes less than 10 mm to greater than 40 mm, the terrain slope of the sliding area, the terrain slope of the accumulation area, and the potential source quality of the source area.

[0082] The test process recorded in detail the scope of disaster hazards under each set of test conditions, and summarized the relevant test results in Table 2, which clearly shows the specific values ​​of different key influencing indicators and the corresponding scope of rock slide disaster hazards under different test numbers.

[0083] Table 2 Test plan and test results of rock slide hazard range

[0084] Subsequently, the experimental data in Table 2 were fitted and analyzed based on the theoretical analysis model in Table 1. The above steps can reveal the quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and the key influencing indicators. The theoretical analysis models include linear model, logarithmic model, exponential model and power function model, which provide different perspectives to analyze and understand the quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the disaster and the key influencing indicators.

[0085] The experimental data were further fitted to obtain the quantitative change relationship corresponding to each theoretical analysis model, and the above relationship and the corresponding goodness of fit were calculated. The values ​​are summarized in Table 3.

[0086] Table 3 Quantitative relationship between the scope of hazard of rock slide and key impact indicators

[0087] It can be seen from Table 3 that the linear model and the exponential model show a relatively good fitting effect in describing the relationship between the hazard range of rock slide disaster and key impact indicators ( The values ​​are 77.90% and 79.87% respectively), while the fitting effects of the logarithmic model and the power function model are relatively poor.

[0088] The quantitative change relationship established based on the test data and the quantitative results of the key influencing indicators in the embodiment can more accurately predict the hazard range of the rock slide disaster, which helps to take preventive measures before the disaster occurs and reduce losses. On the other hand, the establishment and analysis of the above quantitative change relationship helps to deeply understand the occurrence mechanism of the rock slide disaster, and analyzes the intrinsic connection between the key influencing indicators and the hazard range of the disaster through the quantitative change relationship, which provides a basis for subsequent disaster prediction.

[0089] Furthermore, the quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and the key influencing indicators in the embodiment is only an optional condition of the present invention. In one or some other embodiments, the quantitative change relationship can be optimized and changed according to the actual prediction needs of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and the actual situation of the key influencing indicators. By adjusting and optimizing the quantitative change relationship, the mutual change relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and various key influencing indicators can be more accurately captured, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of the prediction results, which plays an important role in formulating effective disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

[0090] S4. Determine the prediction model of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster based on the above quantitative change relationship, and use the prediction model of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster to analyze and predict the hazard range of the rock slide disaster. The specific steps and related contents are as follows: In this embodiment, the prediction model of the hazard range of rock slide disaster is determined according to the above quantitative change relationship, and its specific implementation content is as follows: Based on the information in Table 3, it can be seen that among the four theoretical analysis models, the exponential model showed the highest goodness of fit in fitting the quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide and the key influencing indicators (the content of 10-40 mm particle size, the content ratio of 10-20 mm to 20-40 mm particle size, the content ratio of less than 10 mm to greater than 40 mm particle size, the terrain slope of the sliding area, the terrain slope of the accumulation area, and the potential source quality of the source area). , which means that the index model can more accurately describe the relationship between key impact indicators and the scope of disaster hazards.

[0091] Therefore, the quantitative change relationship obtained by the exponential model is used as the optimal model of the quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and the key influencing indicators, that is, the prediction model of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster is obtained. The above prediction model of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster satisfies the following relationship: , in, Indicates the scope of hazards caused by rock slide disasters. It indicates the content of particle size of 10~40mm in the grading of Liushipo particles. It indicates the content ratio of 10~20mm to 20~40mm in the particle size distribution of the slippery slope. It indicates the content ratio of particles with a diameter less than 10 mm to those with a diameter greater than 40 mm in the grading of the slitting slope particles. Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, It indicates the potential source quality of the rock slide source area that causes rock slide disasters.

[0092] In an optional embodiment, the hazard range prediction model for the rock slide disaster can accurately predict the hazard range of different rock slide disasters. The hazard ranges of the rock slide disaster calculated by the prediction model are 1.28m 2 、0.71m 2 and 0.61m 2 At the same time, the corresponding values ​​obtained from experimental measurements are 1.17m 2 、0.65m 2 and 0.57m 2 In contrast, the error rates between the calculated values ​​and the experimental measured values ​​were 8.59%, 8.45%, and 6.56%, respectively, and all errors were less than 10%. Based on the above comparison results, it is further demonstrated that the present invention can quickly and accurately predict the hazard range of rock slide disasters.

[0093] In the embodiment, the prediction result of the hazard range of the rock slide slope disaster is obtained based on the above-mentioned rock slide slope disaster hazard range prediction model; and the hazard range of the rock slide slope disaster is comprehensively analyzed in combination with the prediction result, key influencing indicators and the geological environment information of the rock slide slope.

[0094] After successfully constructing and verifying the prediction model for the hazard range of rock slide hazards, the model was used to predict the hazard range of rock slide hazards under different conditions. The relevant prediction results not only provided important information on the scope of the area that may be affected by rock slide hazards, but also provided a data basis for the comprehensive analysis and risk assessment of rock slide hazards.

[0095] In the comprehensive analysis process, not only the prediction results were taken into consideration, but also key influencing indicators such as the particle grading of the rock slide, terrain slope, and potential source quality in the source area were fully combined. Combining the above information for comprehensive analysis can enable a more comprehensive understanding of the background, causes, and future development trends of the rock slide disaster.

[0096] Through comprehensive analysis methods, a more accurate assessment of the degree of hazard of rock slide hazards can be made, potential high-risk areas can be identified, and corresponding disaster prevention and mitigation measures can be formulated accordingly. Relevant measures include but are not limited to strengthening monitoring and early warning, optimizing emergency plans, implementing engineering management, etc., aiming to minimize the negative impact of disasters on human society and the natural environment.

[0097] In addition, the above comprehensive analysis results can also provide a scientific basis for relevant departments and decision makers to better formulate plans and policies for the prevention and control of rock slide disasters and promote the scientific and standardized disaster prevention and control work.

[0098] To sum up, the prediction results obtained based on the prediction model of the hazard range of rock slide disaster, and the comprehensive analysis of the hazard range of rock slide disaster combined with the prediction results, key influencing indicators and geological environment information, are important technical means to understand and respond to rock slide disasters. The method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disasters in this embodiment not only improves the level of disaster awareness, but also provides strong technical support and decision-making basis for disaster prevention and mitigation work.

[0099] The method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disasters in this embodiment effectively fills the technical gap in the field of the hazard range of rock slide disasters, and innovatively proposes an effective prediction method for the hazard range of rock slide disasters. It can quickly and accurately define the potential impact range of rock slide disasters, providing a solid theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of rock slide disasters, and providing a scientific basis for its emergency response and the formulation of long-term prevention and control strategies.

[0100] At the method implementation level, the parameter setting process of the method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disasters in this embodiment is concise and easy to operate, which greatly reduces the engineering cost and improves the work efficiency, making the method show extremely high practical value in the field of geological disaster prevention and mitigation and environmental protection. In addition, the method is easy to promote and can provide effective prediction and prevention and control means for rock slide disasters in a wider area, further enhancing its application potential in practice.

[0101] In summary, the above-mentioned method for predicting the hazard range of rock slide disasters not only promotes the development of rock slide disaster hazard range prediction technology, but also provides strong technical support for the prevention and control of geological disasters, and has far-reaching social and environmental benefits.

[0102] See also Figure 2 In an optional embodiment, the present invention further provides a system for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster. The system comprises a processor, an input device, an output device and a memory. The processor, the input device, the output device and the memory are interconnected. The memory is used to store a computer program. The computer program comprises program instructions. The processor is configured to call the program instructions and execute the specific steps of the method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster and related embodiments provided by the present invention. The system for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster of the present invention has a complete structure and is objective and stable.

[0103] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or replace some or all of the technical features therein by equivalents. These modifications or replacements do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, and they should all be included in the scope of the claims and specification of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster, characterized in that: The steps include: Obtaining geological environment information of rock slide disaster, and selecting key influencing indicators of the rock slide disaster hazard range according to the geological environment information of rock slide disaster; Establishing a quantitative determination method for key impact indicators, and obtaining quantitative results of different key impact indicators according to the quantitative determination method; Based on the test data and the quantitative results, a quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the rock slide disaster and the key impact indicators is constructed; A prediction model for the hazard range of a rock slide disaster is determined based on the quantitative change relationship, and the prediction model for the hazard range of a rock slide disaster is used to analyze and predict the hazard range of the rock slide disaster.

2. The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to claim 1, characterized in that: The key influencing indicators for selecting the hazard range of the rock slide disaster according to the rock slide disaster geological environment information include: The first key influencing indicator, the second key influencing indicator, the third key influencing indicator and the fourth key influencing indicator of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster are selected according to the geological environment information of the rock slide disaster; the first key influencing indicator includes: the content of particle sizes of 10-40mm in the rock slide particle grading, the content ratio of particle sizes of 10-20mm to 20-40mm in the rock slide particle grading, and the content ratio of particle sizes less than 10mm to greater than 40mm in the rock slide particle grading; the second key influencing indicator includes: the terrain slope of the rock slide sliding area; the third key influencing indicator includes: the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area; the fourth key influencing indicator includes: the potential source quality of the rock slide source area that causes the rock slide disaster.

3. The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to claim 1, characterized in that: The quantitative determination method for establishing key impact indicators includes: A first key impact indicator calculation method, a second key impact indicator calculation method, a third key impact indicator calculation method and a fourth key impact indicator calculation method are established based on the key impact indicators.

4. The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to claim 3, characterized in that: The first key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship: ， in, represents the i-th particle size distribution content of the slickrock slope, represents the quality of the i-th particle size distribution of the rubble slope, It represents the total mass of the gravel slope sample for the particle analysis test; The second key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship: ， in, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the vertical height of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide. Indicates the horizontal distance of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide; The third key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship: ， in, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, Indicates the vertical height of the rock slide accumulation area. Indicates the horizontal distance of the rock slide accumulation area; The fourth key impact indicator calculation method satisfies the following relationship: ， in, represents the potential source quality of the slitting slope source area that causes the slitting slope disaster, 2900 represents the average density of the source in the slitting slope source area, It represents the area of ​​strong and moderate weathering in the source area of ​​the sloping slope. Indicates the thickness of the strata in the strong to moderate weathering area of ​​the Liushipo source area.

5. The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to claim 4, characterized in that: The quantitative results of different key impact indicators obtained according to the quantitative determination method include: The first key influencing index calculation method is used to obtain different particle gradation contents of Liushipo, wherein the different particle gradation contents of Liushipo include the content of particle size of 10-40 mm in Liushipo particle gradation, the content ratio of particle size of 10-20 mm to 20-40 mm in Liushipo particle gradation, and the content ratio of particle size less than 10 mm to greater than 40 mm in Liushipo particle gradation; Obtaining the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the rock slide according to the second key influencing indicator calculation method; Obtaining the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area according to the third key influencing indicator calculation method; According to the fourth key impact indicator calculation method, the potential source quality of the tumble slope source area that causes the tumble slope disaster is obtained; Quantitative results of different key influencing indicators were obtained by combining the content of particle sizes of 10-40 mm in the particle grading of the calcite slope, the ratio of particle sizes of 10-20 mm to 20-40 mm in the particle grading of the calcite slope, the ratio of particle sizes less than 10 mm to greater than 40 mm in the particle grading of the calcite slope, the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the calcite slope, the terrain slope of the accumulation area of ​​the calcite slope and the quality of potential material sources in the material source area of ​​the calcite slope that lead to the calcite slope disaster.

6. The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to claim 1, characterized in that: The quantitative change relationship between the scope of the rock slide disaster and the key impact indicators constructed based on the test data and the quantitative results includes: Based on the content of particle sizes of 10-40mm in the particle grading of the calcite slope, the ratio of particle sizes of 10-20mm to 20-40mm in the particle grading of the calcite slope, the ratio of particle sizes less than 10mm to greater than 40mm in the particle grading of the calcite slope, the terrain slope of the slippery area of ​​the calcite slope, the terrain slope of the accumulation area of ​​the calcite slope, the potential source quality of the calcite slope source area that causes the calcite slope disaster, and the experimental data on the hazard range of the calcite slope disaster, a quantitative change relationship between the hazard range of the calcite slope disaster and the key influencing indicators is established.

7. The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to claim 6, characterized in that: The quantitative change relationship satisfies the following relationship: ， in, Indicates the scope of hazards caused by rock slide disasters. It indicates the content of particle size of 10~40mm in the grading of Liushipo particles. It indicates the content ratio of 10~20mm to 20~40mm in the particle size distribution of the slippery slope. It indicates the content ratio of particles with a diameter less than 10 mm to those with a diameter greater than 40 mm in the grading of the slitting slope particles. Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, It indicates the potential source quality of the rock slide source area that causes rock slide disasters.

8. The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to claim 7, characterized in that: The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster also includes: Introducing linear models, logarithmic models, exponential models and power function models based on theoretical analysis models; The prediction model of the hazard range of rock slide disaster is determined by combining the quantitative change relationship, the linear model, the logarithmic model, the exponential model and the power function model.

9. The method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster according to claim 8, characterized in that: The prediction model for determining the hazard range of rock slide disaster according to the quantitative change relationship includes: The rock slide disaster hazard range prediction model satisfies the following relationship: ， in, Indicates the scope of hazards caused by rock slide disasters. It indicates the content of particle size of 10~40mm in the grading of Liushipo particles. It indicates the content ratio of 10~20mm to 20~40mm in the particle size distribution of the slippery slope. It indicates the content ratio of particles with a diameter less than 10 mm to those with a diameter greater than 40 mm in the grading of the slitting slope particles. Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide area, Indicates the terrain slope of the rock slide accumulation area, It indicates the potential source quality of the rock slide source area that may cause the rock slide disaster; Obtaining a prediction result of the hazard range of the rock slide disaster based on the rock slide disaster hazard range prediction model; A comprehensive analysis of the hazard scope of the rock slide slope disaster is conducted based on the prediction results, the key influencing indicators and the geological environment information of the rock slide slope.

10. A system for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster, characterized in that: The system includes a processor, an input device, an output device and a memory, wherein the processor, the input device, the output device and the memory are interconnected, wherein the memory is used to store a computer program, the computer program includes program instructions, and the processor is configured to call the program instructions to execute the method for predicting the hazard range of a rock slide disaster as described in any one of claims 1 to 9.

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