Power grid elastic balance planning regulation and control method based on supply and demand balance

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power grid regulation and control, in particular to a power grid elastic balance planning regulation and control method based on supply and demand balance. Obtaining an electric energy fitting curve according to the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical period; obtaining a change coefficient according to the electric energy difference characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve in adjacent time periods before and after the current adjustment moment; obtaining an electric energy estimated value according to the electric energy characteristic sequence and the change coefficient of the current period; obtaining a fitting change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve before the current adjustment moment; obtaining an actual change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current period before the current adjustment moment; and obtaining a correction coefficient according to the fitting change factor and the actual change factor. The electric energy predicted value is obtained according to the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimated value; power supply matching is carried out according to the electric energy predicted values of the power generation area and the power utilization area, and the power grid supply-demand balance regulation accuracy is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power grid control, and in particular to a power grid elastic balance planning and control method based on supply and demand balance. Background Art

[0002] Modern power loads fluctuate greatly with time, seasons, and user behavior patterns, especially during peak hours or when there are special factors such as abnormal weather. A surge in load may cause an imbalance in power supply and demand. Timely adjustments need to be made based on the power demand and power supply conditions of the power grid to balance the power supply and demand in the power grid and avoid power waste or power shortages caused by supply and demand imbalances. When regulating the supply and demand of power systems, power regulation is often based on the quantitative relationship between historical power consumption characteristics and power generation characteristics; however, historical power generation and power consumption conditions may fluctuate greatly in certain cycles, affecting the accuracy of current supply and demand regulation decisions; and the power generation and power consumption conditions in the current period may differ from historical conditions due to characteristic factors such as abnormal weather, making the accuracy of power supply and demand balance regulation based on historical conditions low. Summary of the invention

[0003] In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem of low accuracy in regulating the power supply and demand balance in the current period based on the historical power consumption and power generation conditions, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a power grid elastic balance planning and regulation method based on supply and demand balance, and the technical scheme adopted is as follows:

[0004] Obtaining power consumption sequences of different power consumption areas and power generation sequences of different power generation areas in different cycles within the same preset time period in the power grid; using the power consumption sequence and the power generation sequence as electric energy feature sequences, and using the power consumption areas and the power generation areas as target areas;

[0005] Obtaining the electric energy confidence of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical period according to the difference characteristics between the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical period of any target area and other historical periods; obtaining the electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area according to the electric energy confidence; obtaining the variation coefficient according to the electric energy difference characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area in the adjacent time periods before and after the current adjustment moment; obtaining the electric energy estimation value of the future adjacent time period of the current adjustment moment according to the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current period of the arbitrary target area and the variation coefficient;

[0006] Obtain a fitting change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve before the current adjustment time; obtain an actual change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current period of the arbitrary target area before the current adjustment time; obtain a correction coefficient according to the difference characteristics between the fitting change factor and the actual change factor; obtain an electric energy prediction value according to the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimation value;

[0007] Power supply matching at the current adjustment moment is performed according to the power prediction values ​​of the power generation area and the power consumption area.

[0008] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the electric energy confidence of the electric energy feature sequence of the historical period according to the difference characteristics between the historical period of any target area and the electric energy feature sequences of other historical periods includes:

[0009] The average value of the dynamic time warping distance between the historical period of the arbitrary target area and the electric energy feature sequence of other historical periods is calculated and negatively correlated to obtain the electric energy confidence of the electric energy feature sequence of the historical period.

[0010] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area according to the electric energy confidence level includes:

[0011] The electric energy characteristic sequence of the arbitrary target area whose electric energy confidence exceeds a preset threshold is subjected to curve fitting to obtain an electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area.

[0012] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the variation coefficient according to the electric energy difference characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area in the adjacent time periods before and after the current adjustment moment includes:

[0013] The ratio of the electric energy of the electric energy fitting curve within a preset adjacent time period before and after the current adjustment moment is calculated to obtain the variation coefficient.

[0014] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the estimated value of the electric energy in the future adjacent time period at the current adjustment moment according to the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle of the arbitrary target area and the variation coefficient includes:

[0015] The ratio of the electric energy of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle within a preset adjacent time period before the current adjustment moment to the variation coefficient is calculated to obtain an estimated value of the electric energy in a future adjacent time period of the current adjustment moment.

[0016] Furthermore, the step of obtaining a fitting change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve before the current adjustment time includes:

[0017] The ratio of the electric energy of any time period within the preset associated time before the current adjustment moment to the electric energy fitting curve is calculated to obtain the electric energy fitting change; the preset associated time exceeds the preset adjacent time; the average value of the electric energy fitting change of all any time periods within the preset associated time is calculated to obtain the fitting change factor.

[0018] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the actual change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current period of the arbitrary target area before the current adjustment time includes:

[0019] Calculate the ratio of the electric energy of any time period within the preset associated time length before the current adjustment moment to the electric energy of the next time period of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle to obtain the actual change in electric energy; calculate the average value of the actual change in electric energy of all arbitrary time periods within the preset associated time length to obtain the actual change factor.

[0020] Furthermore, the step of obtaining a correction coefficient according to the difference characteristics between the fitting change factor and the actual change factor includes:

[0021] The correction coefficient is obtained by calculating the difference between the fitting change factor and the actual change factor and performing positive correlation mapping through an exponential function.

[0022] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the electric energy prediction value according to the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimation value comprises:

[0023] The product of the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimation value is calculated to obtain the electric energy prediction value.

[0024] Furthermore, the step of performing power supply matching at the current adjustment moment according to the power prediction values ​​of the power generation area and the power consumption area includes:

[0025] Calculate the difference between the predicted electric energy values ​​of the power generation area and the corresponding power consumption area to obtain the difference between electric energy supply and demand; when any power generation area exceeds the preset multiple of the predicted electric energy value of the corresponding power consumption area, the any power generation area is used as a redundant power generation source; when any power generation area does not exceed the preset multiple of the predicted electric energy value of the corresponding power consumption area, the any power generation area is used as a shortage power generation source; sort the redundant power generation sources in descending order according to the difference between electric energy supply and demand to obtain a power supply order, sort the shortage power generation sources in descending order according to the difference between electric energy supply and demand to obtain a power consumption order; match and transmit power to the power generation areas in the power supply order and the power consumption order according to their ranking.

[0026] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0027] In the present invention, obtaining the electric energy confidence can determine whether the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical cycle is abnormal, so that the electric energy fitting curve obtained according to the electric energy confidence can characterize the electric energy characteristics of the target area in the historical cycle, reduce the error of the electric energy prediction of the target area in the future period, and preliminarily improve the accuracy of the power supply and demand balance of the future period. Obtaining the variation coefficient can determine the electric energy variation characteristics of the historical cycle before and after the current adjustment moment, and then based on the variation coefficient and the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle, the electric energy estimation value of the future adjacent period can be obtained according to the periodic law of the electric energy of the power grid, so that the electric energy estimation value is closer to the actual value, and the accuracy of the power supply and demand balance regulation of the power grid is further improved. Calculating the fitting variation factor and the actual variation factor can obtain the correction coefficient according to the difference in the electric energy variation law of the current cycle and the historical cycle, so as to correct the electric energy estimation value according to the actual electric energy situation of the current cycle, and improve the reliability of the electric energy prediction value; finally, the supply and demand balance is regulated according to the electric energy prediction value, which can improve the accuracy of the regulation planning of the power supply and demand balance of the power grid and avoid electric energy waste and shortage. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions and advantages in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions are briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0029] Figure 1 A flow chart of a grid elastic balance planning and control method based on supply and demand balance provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0030] In order to further explain the technical means and effects adopted by the present invention to achieve the predetermined purpose of the invention, the specific implementation method, structure, characteristics and effects of a power grid elastic balance planning and control method based on supply and demand balance proposed by the present invention are described in detail below in combination with the accompanying drawings and preferred embodiments. In the following description, different "one embodiment" or "another embodiment" does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment. In addition, specific features, structures or characteristics in one or more embodiments may be combined in any suitable form.

[0031] Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs.

[0032] The following is a detailed description of a specific scheme of a power grid elastic balance planning and control method based on supply and demand balance provided by the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0033] See also Figure 1 , which shows a flow chart of a power grid elastic balance planning and control method based on supply and demand balance provided by an embodiment of the present invention, the method comprising the following steps:

[0034] Step S1, obtaining power consumption sequences of different power consumption areas and power generation sequences of different power generation areas in different cycles within the same preset time period in the power grid; using the power consumption sequence and the power generation sequence as electric energy feature sequences, and using the power consumption area and the power generation area as target areas.

[0035] In an embodiment of the present invention, the implementation scenario is to plan and regulate the power consumption and power generation of the power grid so that the supply and demand of electric energy are balanced. Under normal circumstances, there is periodicity in power consumption and power generation. The power consumption or power generation in the same period in different cycles is relatively similar. Therefore, the power supply and demand of the current period is usually regulated according to the historical power consumption and power generation situation; first, the power consumption sequence of different power consumption areas in different cycles in the same preset period in the power grid and the power generation sequence of different power generation areas are obtained. In an embodiment of the present invention, 24 hours a day is taken as a power consumption cycle, and the same preset period is 24 hours a day; the power consumption sequence and power generation sequence of different cycles within the historical 30 days ending at the current period are obtained. The power consumption area is an area using the same power source, and the power generation area is an area with the same power generation source. The power consumption sequence and the power generation sequence represent the power consumption and power generation per minute respectively; the implementer can determine it by himself according to the implementation scenario. Since the power generation process and the power consumption process may cause abnormal power data due to weather or other special factors, the data of different power consumption areas and power generation areas can be processed and analyzed in the same way, so the power consumption sequence and the power generation sequence are used as power feature sequences, and the power consumption area and the power generation area are used as target areas.

[0036] Step S2, obtaining the electric energy confidence of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical period according to the difference characteristics between the historical period of any target area and the electric energy characteristic sequences of other historical periods; obtaining the electric energy fitting curve of any target area according to the electric energy confidence; obtaining the variation coefficient according to the electric energy difference characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve of any target area in the adjacent time periods before and after the current adjustment moment; obtaining the electric energy estimation value of the future adjacent time period at the current adjustment moment according to the electric energy characteristic sequence and variation coefficient of the current period of any target area.

[0037] Since there are periodic laws in power generation and power consumption, the power characteristics of the corresponding current period can be predicted based on the power characteristic sequence of the historical period of the target area; however, there may be power anomalies caused by special factors in different historical periods, and such power anomalies are likely to affect the accuracy of prediction, so it is necessary to eliminate the data of such power anomalies to improve the accuracy of predicting the power characteristics of the current period. Therefore, the power confidence of the power characteristic sequence of the historical period is obtained based on the difference characteristics between the power characteristic sequence of the historical period of any target area and other historical periods; preferably, in an embodiment of the present invention, the step of obtaining the power confidence includes: calculating the average value of the dynamic time warping distance between the power characteristic sequence of the historical period of any target area and other historical periods and negatively correlating and mapping them, to obtain the power confidence of the power characteristic sequence of the historical period. The historical cycle is the cycle before the current period; the dynamic time warping distance is obtained through the existing dynamic time warping algorithm, and the specific steps are no longer repeated. The greater the difference between the two sequences, the greater the dynamic time warping distance; therefore, the greater the dynamic time warping distance between the historical cycle of any target area and the electric energy characteristic sequence of other historical cycles, the smaller the electric energy confidence, and the more likely that the historical cycle is an abnormal electric energy characteristic sequence caused by special factors, and the less likely it is to estimate the electric energy characteristics of the current period.

[0038] Furthermore, the electric energy fitting curve of any target area can be obtained according to the electric energy confidence; preferably, in the embodiment of the present invention, the step of obtaining the electric energy fitting curve includes: curve fitting the electric energy characteristic sequence of any target area whose electric energy confidence exceeds the preset threshold, and obtaining the electric energy fitting curve of any target area. The greater the electric energy confidence, the more normal the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical period is, and the higher the accuracy of the prediction; in the embodiment of the present invention, the preset threshold is 0.6, which can be determined by the implementer according to the implementation scenario; the electric energy fitting curve eliminates the relatively abnormal electric energy characteristic sequence in the historical period of the arbitrary target area, and preliminarily improves the prediction accuracy of the electric energy characteristics of the current period.

[0039] After obtaining the electric energy fitting curve of the target area, the electric energy characteristics of the current period can be predicted according to the electric energy characteristics of the historical period; due to factors such as seasonal weather, although the change rules of electric energy in different historical periods are similar, the specific values ​​of electric energy may be different over time. Therefore, the variation coefficient can be obtained according to the electric energy difference characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve of any target area in the adjacent time periods before and after the current adjustment time; preferably, in an embodiment of the present invention, the step of obtaining the variation coefficient includes: calculating the ratio of the electric energy of the electric energy fitting curve in the preset adjacent time length before and after the current adjustment time, and obtaining the variation coefficient. In an embodiment of the present invention, the preset adjacent time length is 1 hour, and the implementer can determine it according to the implementation scenario. If the supply and demand of the power grid is adjusted once every hour of the day, for example, at 12 o'clock, the electric energy between 12 o'clock and 1 o'clock needs to be regulated, then the current adjustment time is 12 o'clock, and the preset adjacent time lengths before and after are 11 o'clock to 12 o'clock and 12 o'clock to 1 o'clock respectively. Because the specific values ​​of the electric energy on the day and the historical electric energy are different, but the change patterns in the same period of time every day are similar, the variation coefficient reflects the ratio of the electric energy of the target area in the preset adjacent time period before and after the current adjustment time in history. The electric energy represents the total power generation or total electricity consumption of the target area within this time range.

[0040] After obtaining the coefficient of variation of the historical cycle of the target area at the current adjustment moment, the estimated value of the electric energy in the future adjacent time period at the current adjustment moment can be obtained based on the electric energy characteristic sequence and the coefficient of variation of the current cycle of any target area; preferably, in an embodiment of the present invention, the step of obtaining the estimated value of the electric energy includes: calculating the ratio of the electric energy of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle within a preset adjacent time length before the current adjustment moment to the coefficient of variation, and obtaining the estimated value of the electric energy in the future adjacent time period at the current adjustment moment. Since the changing rules of the electric energy characteristics of the same time period in different cycles are similar, the unknown electric energy in the future adjacent time period can be predicted based on the ratio of the electric energy determined before the current adjustment moment of the current cycle to the coefficient of variation. The formula for obtaining the estimated value of electric energy includes:

[0041]

[0042] In the formula, E t+n represents the estimated value of the electric energy in the current cycle within the preset adjacent time length n after the current adjustment time t, R t-n Y represents the amount of electric energy in the current cycle within the preset adjacent time length n before the current adjustment time t; t-n K represents the electric energy of the electric energy fitting curve within the preset adjacent time n before the current adjustment time t. t-n It represents the electric energy of the electric energy fitting curve within the preset adjacent time length n after the current adjustment time t. Represents the coefficient of variation.

[0043] Step S3, obtaining a fitting change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve before the current adjustment moment; obtaining an actual change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the current period of the electric energy feature sequence of any target area before the current adjustment moment; obtaining a correction coefficient according to the difference characteristics between the fitting change factor and the actual change factor; obtaining an electric energy prediction value according to the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimation value.

[0044] The estimated power value of the target area is obtained under normal conditions of the power change law in the current cycle. However, the current cycle may be affected by abnormal weather or other special factors, which may cause the power change law to be abnormal, resulting in a large difference between the estimated power value and the actual power, affecting the accuracy of the supply and demand control plan. Therefore, the estimated power value needs to be further corrected. If special factors in the current cycle cause abnormal power characteristics, the power change trend of the current cycle will be significantly different from that of the historical cycle; therefore, the fitting change factor can be obtained based on the power change characteristics of the power fitting curve before the current adjustment time.

[0045] Preferably, in an embodiment of the present invention, the step of obtaining a fitting change factor includes: calculating the ratio of the electric energy of any time period within the preset associated time before the current adjustment moment to the next time period of the electric energy fitting curve, and obtaining the electric energy fitting change; in an embodiment of the present invention, the electric energy characteristic sequence is to count the electric energy once a minute, so any time period and the next time period are the ratio of the electric energy of the two minutes before and after; the electric energy fitting change characterizes the trend of electric energy rise and fall. The preset associated time period exceeds the preset adjacent time period; in an embodiment of the present invention, the preset associated time period is 5 hours, that is, 5 hours before the current adjustment moment, and the implementer can determine it according to the implementation scenario. Calculate the average value of the electric energy fitting change of all arbitrary time periods within the preset associated time period to obtain the fitting change factor; the fitting change factor characterizes the electric energy change characteristics of the target area in the historical period. Furthermore, the actual change factor can be obtained according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle of any target area before the current adjustment moment, specifically including: calculating the ratio of the electric energy of any period within the preset associated time length before the current adjustment moment to the next period to obtain the actual change of electric energy; calculating the average value of the actual change of electric energy in all any periods within the preset associated time length to obtain the actual change factor. The actual change factor characterizes the change characteristics of the target area in the current cycle.

[0046] When the fitting change factor and the actual change factor are smaller, it means that the electric energy in the preset associated time period in each cycle has a more obvious growth trend over time; if the fitting change factor is larger than the actual change factor, it means that the electric energy growth area in the current cycle is stronger. If the target area is a power generation area, the power generation in the current cycle will increase, and if it is a power consumption area, the power consumption in the current cycle will increase; therefore, it is necessary to correct the electric energy estimate according to the difference characteristics of the electric energy change trend, and then the correction coefficient can be obtained according to the difference characteristics of the fitting change factor and the actual change factor.

[0047] Preferably, in an embodiment of the present invention, the step of obtaining the correction coefficient includes: calculating the difference between the fitting change factor and the actual change factor and performing positive correlation mapping through an exponential function to obtain the correction coefficient; when the fitting change factor is greater than the actual change factor, the correction coefficient is greater than 1, which means that the electric energy growth trend of the current cycle is greater than that of the historical cycle, and the electric energy estimation value needs to be increased; when the fitting change factor is less than the actual change factor, the correction coefficient is less than 1, which means that the electric energy growth trend of the current cycle is less than that of the historical cycle, and the electric energy estimation value needs to be reduced. The formula for obtaining the correction coefficient includes:

[0048] W = exp(DF)

[0049] Where W represents the correction coefficient, exp() represents the exponential function, D represents the fitting change factor, and F represents the actual change factor.

[0050] Furthermore, after obtaining the correction coefficient of the estimated electric energy value, the predicted electric energy value can be obtained according to the correction coefficient and the estimated electric energy value; preferably, in the embodiment of the present invention, the step of obtaining the predicted electric energy value includes: calculating the product of the correction coefficient and the estimated electric energy value to obtain the predicted electric energy value. The predicted electric energy value not only refers to the normal electric energy change characteristics of the historical cycle, but also considers whether the electric energy change trend of the current cycle is similar to the historical cycle. Therefore, the accuracy of the supply and demand control planning can be greatly improved according to the predicted electric energy value.

[0051] Step S4, matching power supply at the current adjustment time according to the power forecast values ​​of the power generation area and the power consumption area.

[0052] After obtaining the predicted electric energy values ​​of different power generation areas and power consumption areas within the preset adjacent time lengths in the future of the current adjustment moment, the power supply matching at the current adjustment moment can be performed according to the predicted electric energy values ​​of the power generation areas and the power consumption areas; preferably, in the embodiment of the present invention, the power supply matching step includes: calculating the difference between the predicted electric energy values ​​of the power generation area and the corresponding power consumption area to obtain the difference value of power supply and demand; since the electric energy of the power generation area is fixedly transmitted to certain power consumption areas, there is a corresponding relationship between the power generation area and the power consumption area; when the difference value of power supply and demand is larger, it means that the power generation in the future period of the current cycle at the current adjustment moment is larger than the corresponding power consumption, and the excess power generation can be supplied to other power consumption areas. When any power generation area exceeds the preset multiple of the predicted electric energy value of the corresponding power consumption area, the arbitrary power generation area is used as a redundant power generation source; in the embodiment of the present invention, the preset multiple is 1.1 times, and the implementer can determine it by himself according to the implementation scenario. The redundant power generation source means that there is surplus electric energy. When any power generation area does not exceed the preset multiple value of the predicted electric energy value of the corresponding power consumption area, the arbitrary power generation area is used as a shortage power generation source; there may be a shortage of power consumption, and other power generation areas are required to supply power. The surplus power generation sources are sorted in descending order according to the difference between power supply and demand to obtain the power supply order. The power generation areas with higher power supply order have more remaining power and can be preferentially transmitted to the power consumption areas with larger power gaps. The power generation sources with lower power supply order are sorted in descending order according to the difference between power supply and demand to obtain the power consumption order. The power consumption areas with higher power consumption order have larger power gaps and need more power. The power generation areas with higher power supply order and power consumption order are matched and transmitted according to their rankings. The power generation areas with more remaining power are preferentially transmitted to the power consumption areas with more power needs. This improves the balance between supply and demand of the power grid and avoids power waste and power shortage.

[0053] In summary, the embodiments of the present invention provide a method for planning and controlling elastic balance of power grids based on supply and demand balance; obtain an electric energy fitting curve according to the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical period; obtain a variation coefficient according to the electric energy difference characteristics of the adjacent time periods before and after the current adjustment moment of the electric energy fitting curve; obtain an electric energy estimation value according to the electric energy characteristic sequence and variation coefficient of the current period; obtain a fitting variation factor according to the electric energy variation characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve before the current adjustment moment; obtain an actual variation factor according to the electric energy variation characteristics of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current period before the current adjustment moment; obtain a correction coefficient according to the fitting variation factor and the actual variation factor. The present invention obtains an electric energy prediction value according to the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimation value; performs power supply matching according to the electric energy prediction values ​​of the power generation area and the power consumption area, thereby improving the control accuracy of the balance of supply and demand of the power grid.

[0054] It should be noted that the sequence of the above embodiments of the present invention is for description only and does not represent the advantages and disadvantages of the embodiments. The processes depicted in the accompanying drawings do not necessarily require the specific order or continuous order shown to achieve the desired results. In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing are also possible or may be advantageous.

[0055] The various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, and the same or similar parts between the various embodiments can be referenced to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments.

Claims

1. A power grid elastic balance planning and control method based on supply and demand balance, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: Obtaining power consumption sequences of different power consumption areas and power generation sequences of different power generation areas in different cycles within the same preset time period in the power grid; using the power consumption sequence and the power generation sequence as electric energy feature sequences, and using the power consumption areas and the power generation areas as target areas; Obtaining the electric energy confidence of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical period according to the difference characteristics between the electric energy characteristic sequence of the historical period of any target area and other historical periods; obtaining the electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area according to the electric energy confidence; obtaining the variation coefficient according to the electric energy difference characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area in the adjacent time periods before and after the current adjustment moment; obtaining the electric energy estimation value of the future adjacent time period of the current adjustment moment according to the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current period of the arbitrary target area and the variation coefficient; Obtain a fitting change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve before the current adjustment time; obtain an actual change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current period of the arbitrary target area before the current adjustment time; obtain a correction coefficient according to the difference characteristics between the fitting change factor and the actual change factor; obtain an electric energy prediction value according to the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimation value; Power supply matching at the current adjustment moment is performed according to the power prediction values ​​of the power generation area and the power consumption area.

2. A method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the electric energy confidence of the electric energy feature sequence of the historical period according to the difference characteristics between the historical period of any target area and the electric energy feature sequence of other historical periods comprises: The average value of the dynamic time warping distance between the historical period of the arbitrary target area and the electric energy feature sequence of other historical periods is calculated and negatively correlated to obtain the electric energy confidence of the electric energy feature sequence of the historical period.

3. A method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area according to the electric energy confidence level comprises: The electric energy characteristic sequence of the arbitrary target area whose electric energy confidence exceeds a preset threshold is subjected to curve fitting to obtain an electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area.

4. The method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the variation coefficient according to the electric energy difference characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve of the arbitrary target area in the adjacent time periods before and after the current adjustment time comprises: The ratio of the electric energy of the electric energy fitting curve within a preset adjacent time period before and after the current adjustment moment is calculated to obtain the variation coefficient.

5. A method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 4, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the estimated value of the electric energy in the future adjacent time period of the current adjustment moment according to the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle of the arbitrary target area and the variation coefficient comprises: The ratio of the electric energy of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle within a preset adjacent time period before the current adjustment moment to the variation coefficient is calculated to obtain an estimated value of the electric energy in a future adjacent time period of the current adjustment moment.

6. A method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 4, characterized in that: The step of obtaining a fitting change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy fitting curve before the current adjustment time comprises: The ratio of the electric energy of any time period within the preset associated time before the current adjustment moment to the electric energy fitting curve is calculated to obtain the electric energy fitting change; the preset associated time exceeds the preset adjacent time; the average value of the electric energy fitting change of all any time periods within the preset associated time is calculated to obtain the fitting change factor.

7. A method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 6, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the actual change factor according to the electric energy change characteristics of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current period of the arbitrary target area before the current adjustment time comprises: Calculate the ratio of the electric energy of any time period within the preset associated time length before the current adjustment moment to the electric energy of the next time period of the electric energy characteristic sequence of the current cycle to obtain the actual change in electric energy; calculate the average value of the actual change in electric energy of all arbitrary time periods within the preset associated time length to obtain the actual change factor.

8. The method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the correction coefficient according to the difference characteristics between the fitting change factor and the actual change factor comprises: The correction coefficient is obtained by calculating the difference between the fitting change factor and the actual change factor and performing positive correlation mapping through an exponential function.

9. The method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the electric energy prediction value according to the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimation value comprises: The product of the correction coefficient and the electric energy estimation value is calculated to obtain the electric energy prediction value.

10. The method for planning and controlling power grid elastic balance based on supply and demand balance according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of matching power supply at the current adjustment time according to the power prediction values ​​of the power generation area and the power consumption area comprises: Calculate the difference between the predicted electric energy values ​​of the power generation area and the corresponding power consumption area to obtain the difference between electric energy supply and demand; when any power generation area exceeds the preset multiple of the predicted electric energy value of the corresponding power consumption area, the any power generation area is used as a redundant power generation source; when any power generation area does not exceed the preset multiple of the predicted electric energy value of the corresponding power consumption area, the any power generation area is used as a shortage power generation source; sort the redundant power generation sources in descending order according to the difference between electric energy supply and demand to obtain a power supply order, sort the shortage power generation sources in descending order according to the difference between electric energy supply and demand to obtain a power consumption order; match and transmit power to the power generation areas in the power supply order and the power consumption order according to their ranking.

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