Power dispatching method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power dispatching, and relates to a power dispatching method and device, electronic equipment and a storage medium, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining historical power grid load data and the remaining capacity of a current power supply end; predicting a peak load in the next period based on the historical power grid load data; calculating a supply-demand difference value based on the peak load and the residual capacity of the power supply end; adjusting the output power based on the supply-demand difference value; the method has the effect of improving the power dispatching efficiency.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of electric power dispatching, and in particular to an electric power dispatching method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium. Background Art

[0002] With the rapid development of social economy, the demand for electricity is growing day by day. At the same time, the demand for electricity is also diversified, including different user groups such as industry, commerce, and residents. Due to the different layouts of power equipment and people's gathering places, the actual amount of electricity used also varies greatly. Some places have abundant power resources, while some places have scarce power resources. Production and life in places with scarce power resources will be affected. With the continuous growth of electricity demand, the dispatching and management of the power system has become an important challenge. Traditional power dispatching methods may not be able to meet the increasingly complex needs of the power system. Therefore, a more efficient and intelligent power dispatching method is needed.

[0003] A related power dispatching method is to conduct a survey on power usage in a specific area, compare the power usage in the specific area with the standard power usage over a long period of time, and take power dispatching measures to achieve it.

[0004] However, in the actual process of store dispatching, since the power usage survey consumes a lot of time, delays will occur in power dispatching, reducing the efficiency of power dispatching. Summary of the invention

[0005] In order to improve the efficiency of power dispatching, the present application provides a power dispatching method, device, electronic device and storage medium.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present application provides a power dispatching method, which adopts the following technical solution: A power dispatching method, comprising: Obtain historical grid load data and remaining capacity at the power source end; Predicting the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data; Calculating a supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power source; Based on the supply-demand difference, the output power is adjusted.

[0007] By adopting the above technical solution, by acquiring historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply in real time, and predicting the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply, electronic equipment can make power scheduling responses in advance, and calculate the supply and demand difference according to the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply, so that the electronic equipment can accurately obtain the power that needs to be scheduled, thereby accurately adjusting the power output power according to the supply and demand difference, thereby improving the power scheduling efficiency.

[0008] In another possible implementation, the predicting the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data includes: Establishing a load model based on the historical power grid load data to analyze power grid load changes; Based on the power grid load changes, analyzing the load growth rate curves in different time periods; The peak load and peak time in the next cycle are determined by a time series analysis method based on the load growth rate curve.

[0009] In another possible implementation, the calculating the supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power source includes: Obtain the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle; Based on the peak load, calculate the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) within a preset time period; If the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle is less than the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1), the power shortage Edef(t+1) is determined according to the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) and the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle; the additional available power Pe(t+1) is determined according to the remaining capacity of the power supply end; The supply-demand difference is calculated based on the power shortage and the additional investable power, where the supply-demand difference Eadd=Edef(t+1)-Pe(t+1).

[0010] In another possible implementation manner, adjusting the output power based on the supply-demand difference includes: Determining whether the supply-demand difference is a positive value; If the supply-demand difference is a positive value, it is determined that the power grid is in a shortage state; Get the unit regulation rate Rmax; If the unit adjustment rate Rmax×Δt<|Eadd|, at least one unit needs to be mobilized for a time span of Δt as one adjustment period; Adjust the power increment ΔP of N generators according to the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N; The output power is adjusted based on the power increments ΔP of the N generators.

[0011] In another possible implementation, the adjusting the power increment ΔP of the N generators based on the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N comprises: Determine the power increment ΔP and the response time TR of the generator; If (ΔP×TR / tsettle)>θ, it is judged that there may be an unstable tendency, and tsettle is the time required for the generator to enter a balanced working state; Calculate the steady-state power deviation of the generator after tsettle: ΔPss = ΔP × α × (1-exp (-(ΔP × TR / tsettle))); It is determined whether the output power meets the steady-state power deviation, and if the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation, dynamic regulation is performed.

[0012] In another possible implementation, if the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation, the dynamic regulation includes: Determine the target power value; Calculate a power error |δ(t)| according to the output power and the target power value; If the power error |δ(t)|>=δ_thr, the actual available capacity P_availability of the generator and the thermal stress limit of the generator are obtained, where δ_thr represents a preset power control threshold; Whether the power generation can continue to increase or decrease is evaluated by ΔT_stable>T_heat×K, where K is the thermal efficiency coefficient, ΔT_stable represents the steady-state temperature increase, and T_heat is the maximum safe temperature increase.

[0013] In another possible implementation, the method further includes: Obtain the current actual power operation data of each area and the total output data of the power supply end; Recording the historical grid load data and the total output data of the power supply end to form a grid supply-demand ratio table; The demand difference for the next cycle is extracted based on the power grid supply-demand ratio table.

[0014] In a second aspect, the present application provides a power dispatching method and device, which adopts the following technical solution: A power dispatching method and device, comprising: Information acquisition module, used to obtain historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end; A peak prediction module, used to predict the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data; A difference prediction module, used for calculating the supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end; The power output module is used to adjust the output power based on the supply-demand difference.

[0015] By adopting the above technical solution, the information acquisition module obtains the historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end in real time. The peak prediction module predicts the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end, so that the electronic equipment can respond to power scheduling in advance. The difference prediction module calculates the supply and demand difference according to the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end, so that the electronic equipment can accurately obtain the power that needs to be scheduled. The power output module accurately adjusts the power output power according to the supply and demand difference, thereby improving the power scheduling efficiency.

[0016] In another possible implementation, when the peak load prediction module predicts the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data, it is specifically used to: Establishing a load model based on the historical power grid load data to analyze power grid load changes; Based on the power grid load changes, analyzing the load growth rate curves in different time periods; The peak load and peak time in the next cycle are determined by a time series analysis method based on the load growth rate curve.

[0017] In another possible implementation, when the difference prediction module calculates the supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end, it is specifically used to: Obtain the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle; Based on the peak load, calculate the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) within a preset time period; If the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle is less than the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1), the power shortage Edef(t+1) is determined according to the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) and the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle; Determine the additional available power Pe(t+1) according to the remaining capacity of the power supply end; The supply-demand difference is calculated based on the power shortage and the additional investable power, where the supply-demand difference Eadd=Edef(t+1)-Pe(t+1).

[0018] In another possible implementation, when the power output module adjusts the output power based on the supply-demand difference, it is specifically used to: Determining whether the supply-demand difference is a positive value; If the supply-demand difference is a positive value, it is determined that the power grid is in a shortage state; Get the unit regulation rate Rmax; If the unit adjustment rate Rmax×Δt<|Eadd|, at least one unit needs to be mobilized for a time span of Δt as one adjustment period; Adjust the power increment ΔP of N generators according to the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N; The output power is adjusted based on the power increments ΔP of the N generators.

[0019] In another possible implementation, the device includes: A data determination module, used to determine a power increment ΔP and a response time TR of the generator; The first judgment module is used to judge that there may be an unstable tendency if (ΔP×TR / tsettle)>θ, where tsettle is the time required for the generator to enter a balanced working state; Deviation calculation module, used to calculate the steady-state power deviation of the generator after tsettle ΔPss=ΔP×α×(1-exp(-(ΔP×TR / tsettle))); The second judgment module is used to judge whether the output power meets the steady-state power deviation, and if the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation, perform dynamic regulation.

[0020] In another possible implementation, when the second judgment module determines that the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation and then performs dynamic control, it is specifically used to: Determine the target power value; Calculate a power error |δ(t)| according to the output power and the target power value; If the power error |δ(t)|>=δ_thr, the actual available capacity P_availability of the generator and the thermal stress limit of the generator are obtained, where δ_thr represents a preset power control threshold; Whether the power generation can continue to increase or decrease is evaluated by ΔT_stable>T_heat×K, where K is the thermal efficiency coefficient, ΔT_stable represents the steady-state temperature increase, and T_heat is the maximum safe temperature increase.

[0021] In another possible implementation, the device further includes: The regional data acquisition module is used to obtain the current actual power operation data of each region and the total output data of the power supply end; A ratio table formulation module, used for recording the historical grid load data and the total output data of the power supply end to form a grid supply-demand ratio table; The demand difference extraction module is used to extract the demand difference of the next cycle based on the power grid supply and demand ratio table.

[0022] In a third aspect, the present application provides an electronic device, which adopts the following technical solution: An electronic device, comprising: at least one processor; Memory; At least one application, wherein at least one application is stored in a memory and configured to be executed by at least one processor, and at least one is configured to: execute a power scheduling method shown in any possible implementation of the first aspect.

[0023] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, which adopts the following technical solution: A computer-readable storage medium, when the computer program is executed in a computer, enables the computer to execute a power dispatching method as described in any one of the first aspects.

[0024] In summary, the present application includes at least one of the following beneficial technical effects: 1. By acquiring historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply in real time, and predicting the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply, electronic equipment can respond to power dispatch in advance, and calculate the supply and demand difference according to the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply, so that electronic equipment can accurately obtain the power that needs to be dispatched, and thus accurately adjust the power output power according to the supply and demand difference, thereby improving power dispatch efficiency. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0025] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a power dispatching method according to an embodiment of the present application.

[0026] Figure 2 It is a flow chart of a power dispatching device according to an embodiment of the present application.

[0027] Figure 3 It is a structural schematic diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0028] The following is combined with Figure 1-3 This application is described in further detail.

[0029] After reading this specification, those skilled in the art may make non-creative modifications to this embodiment as needed, but such modifications are protected by patent law as long as they are within the scope of the claims of this application.

[0030] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0031] In addition, the term "and / or" in this article is only a description of the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in this article, unless otherwise specified, generally means that the associated objects before and after are in an "or" relationship.

[0032] The embodiments of the present application are further described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings in the specification.

[0033] The embodiment of the present application provides a power dispatching method, which is executed by an electronic device, which can be a server or a terminal device, wherein the server can be an independent physical server, or a server cluster or distributed system composed of multiple physical servers, or a cloud server that provides cloud computing services. The terminal device can be a smart phone, a tablet computer, a laptop computer, a desktop computer, etc., but is not limited thereto. The terminal device and the server can be directly or indirectly connected via wired or wireless communication, which is not limited in the embodiment of the present application. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes: step S101, step S102, step S103, step S104, wherein: Step S101, obtaining historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power source.

[0034] In an embodiment of the present application, historical grid data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply are obtained through a real-time load monitoring system, wherein the real-time load monitoring system continuously monitors changes in power demand and feeds back the information to the electronic device in real time.

[0035] Step S102: predicting the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data.

[0036] In the embodiment of the present application, based on the historical grid load data, time series analysis, machine learning algorithms (such as neural networks, support vector machines, etc.) or statistical models are used to perform load forecasting, and the grid load changes within the next period (such as one day, one week), especially the occurrence time and size of the peak load, are predicted.

[0037] Step S103, calculating the supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power source.

[0038] In the embodiment of the present application, the predicted peak load is compared with the remaining capacity of the current power supply end to calculate the supply-demand difference. This difference reflects the power supply pressure or surplus situation that the power grid may face during the peak load period.

[0039] Step S104: adjusting the output power based on the supply-demand difference.

[0040] In the embodiment of the present application, a corresponding output power adjustment strategy is formulated according to the size and positive and negative of the supply-demand difference. A corresponding output power adjustment strategy is formulated according to the size and positive and negative of the supply-demand difference. If the supply-demand difference is negative (i.e., supply is greater than demand), the power generation output power needs to be reduced. If the supply-demand difference is positive (i.e., demand is greater than supply), the power generation output power needs to be increased.

[0041] Assume that the historical load data of a certain area's power grid shows that load peaks often occur during the high temperature period in summer, and the peak load increases year by year. It is now summer, and the remaining capacity of the power plant is 5 million kilowatts. Through the load forecasting model, it is predicted that the peak load in the next week will reach 6 million kilowatts. Supply-demand difference = 6 million kilowatts (forecasted peak load) - 5 million kilowatts (remaining capacity) = 1 million kilowatts. Since the supply-demand difference is positive and large (1 million kilowatts), it means that the power grid will face greater power supply pressure during the peak load period. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate a strategy to increase the power output of power generation, including starting standby generator sets and increasing power generation capacity. Adjust the output of the operating units to improve power generation efficiency.

[0042] The embodiment of the present application obtains historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply in real time, and predicts future load demand based on these data, so that the power dispatching system can respond in advance and adjust the output power to meet actual demand. This helps to reduce energy waste caused by mismatch between supply and demand and improve the dispatching efficiency of electricity.

[0043] In a possible implementation of the embodiment of the present application, predicting the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data includes the following steps (not shown in the figure): A load model is established based on the historical power grid load data to analyze power grid load changes.

[0044] In an embodiment of the present application, historical grid load data is read, and the grid load data can be for the past year, half a year, or the past two years, and is specifically set according to the usage, wherein the historical grid load data includes the electricity demand every hour of every day in the past, thereby forming a time series data set. The read data is then preprocessed to remove obvious outliers and noise to obtain a clear trend of power load changes. According to the seasonality, daily nature, weekend and weekday differences of power load changes, a suitable model is selected to establish a grid load model. For example, an ARIMA (AutoRegressiveIntegratedMovingAverage) model is used.

[0045] Based on the power grid load changes, load growth rate curves in different time periods are analyzed.

[0046] In the embodiment of the present application, by conducting an in-depth analysis of the established load model, the changing characteristics of the power grid load in different time periods (such as daytime, nighttime, weekdays and weekends) can be identified. The system extracts the load growth rate curve based on the load changes in different time periods. Assume that, by analyzing the data of the past month, it is found that the power load grows fastest in the two time periods of 7:00 to 9:00 and 18:00 to 20:00 every day, and the slope of the load growth rate curve is steeper, indicating that the increase in power demand during these periods is larger. Among them, the load growth rate curve can be obtained by methods such as linear regression or polynomial fitting.

[0047] The peak load and peak time in the next cycle are determined by a time series analysis method based on the load growth rate curve.

[0048] In the embodiment of the present application, after having the load growth rate curve, the electronic device uses the time series prediction method to determine the peak load and its corresponding time of the next cycle (such as the next 24 hours). Assume that the dispatching system predicts the load change in the next 24 hours through the model and determines that the peak value occurs at 18:30 the next day, and the peak load is expected to be 950MW.

[0049] By analyzing the load model, grid load change characteristics and load growth rate curve, electronic equipment can accurately predict the peak power demand in the next cycle, thereby effectively improving the accuracy of power dispatching and ensuring a dynamic balance between power supply and demand.

[0050] In a possible implementation of the embodiment of the present application, the calculation of the supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end includes the following steps (not shown in the figure): Obtain the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle.

[0051] In the embodiment of the present application, the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) is determined by the dispatch center or energy management system of the power system according to the predicted output of various power generation equipment and the transmission capacity of the power grid. Among them, the next cycle can be an hour, a day, a week or any predetermined time unit, which is set according to the actual situation and is not described in detail in the embodiment of the present application.

[0052] Based on the peak load, a maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) within a preset time period is calculated.

[0053] In the embodiment of the present application, the peak load within a preset time period is clearly defined. This peak load may be a predicted value, which depends on auxiliary information such as past data and weather forecasts, and is estimated with the help of a prediction model.

[0054] Assume that the maximum predicted power demand in a specific area in the next hour is 4500MW (ie, Qmax(t+1)), which means that this is the most likely maximum power demand of the user during this time period.

[0055] If the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle is less than the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1), the power shortage Edef(t+1) is determined according to the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) and the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle.

[0056] In the embodiment of the present application, it is assumed that the total capacity is estimated to be 3900MW. Because Psupply(t+1)=3900MW is less than the maximum predicted power demand Qmax(t+1)=4500MW, it indicates that there is a power shortage problem in the system.

[0057] Determine the additional available power Pe(t+1) according to the remaining capacity of the power supply end; The supply-demand difference is calculated based on the power shortage and the additional investable power, where the supply-demand difference Eadd=Edef(t+1)-Pe(t+1).

[0058] In this embodiment of the present application, assuming that the current additional remaining power generation capacity that can be put into operation is Pe(t+1)=150MW, the required adjusted power Eadd is Edef(t+1)-Pe(t+1)=600-150=450MW; that is, in order to balance the power supply and demand, another 450MW of electric power needs to be dispatched to the power grid.

[0059] In summary, by predicting the total dispatched power and maximum power demand of the next cycle in advance, the power system can foresee potential supply and demand imbalances in advance. By calculating the power shortage Edef(t+1), the power company can adjust the power generation plan, increase or decrease the output of a specific power plant, evaluate the remaining capacity at the power supply end and determine the additional power that can be invested Pe(t+1), which helps the power company to make full use of existing resources and reduce waste. By calculating the supply and demand difference Eadd, the power company can evaluate whether there is still a risk of power shortage after considering the additional power that can be invested, and formulate countermeasures accordingly. This can improve the efficiency of power dispatch.

[0060] In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, adjusting the output power based on the supply-demand difference includes the following steps (not shown in the figure): Determining whether the supply-demand difference is a positive value; If the supply-demand difference is a positive value, it is determined that the power grid is in a shortage state; Get the unit regulation rate Rmax; If the unit adjustment rate Rmax×Δt<|Eadd|, at least one unit needs to be mobilized for a time span of Δt as one adjustment period; Adjust the power increment ΔP of N generators according to the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N; The output power is adjusted based on the power increments ΔP of the N generators.

[0061] In an embodiment of the present application, if Eadd is positive, it means that the power supply of the power grid is insufficient to meet the demand and the power grid is in a shortage state. Then the electronic device obtains the maximum adjustment rate of each unit, which represents the amount of power that the unit can increase or decrease in unit time. Calculate whether the maximum adjustment capacity of all available units (ie, Rmax×Δt) is less than the supply and demand difference |Eadd| within an adjustment period Δt. If so, it means that the adjustment capacity of the existing units alone cannot make up for the supply and demand gap, and at least one new unit needs to be mobilized. After determining the number of generators N that need to be adjusted, the system calculates the amount of power ΔP that each generator needs to increase according to the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N. The supply and demand difference is then evenly distributed to each generator that needs to be adjusted. Thereby responding to the supply and demand difference in a timely manner and adjusting the generator power, quickly balancing the supply and demand of electricity, reducing grid fluctuations, and thus improving the stability of the grid. Further improve the efficiency of power dispatch.

[0062] Assume that the difference between supply and demand is 100MWh, the adjustment period is 1 hour, the system has 5 available units, and the maximum adjustment rate of each unit is 20MW / h. Determine the difference between supply and demand: The difference between supply and demand is positive, and the power grid is in a shortage state. Obtain the unit adjustment rate: The maximum adjustment rate of each unit is 20MW / h. Determine whether a new unit needs to be mobilized: 5×20=100, which is equal to the difference between supply and demand. In theory, there is no need to mobilize a new unit, but considering the possible losses and uncertainties in actual operation, it may still be necessary to maintain a certain margin or prepare a spare unit. Adjust the generator power increment: ΔP=100 / 5=20MW, and each generator increases its power output by 20MW. Implement power adjustment: Send control signals to the 5 generators to increase their output power.

[0063] A possible implementation of the embodiment of the present application includes the following steps (not shown in the figure) after adjusting the power increment ΔP of N generators based on the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N: Determine the power increment ΔP and the response time TR of the generator; If (ΔP×TR / tsettle)>θ, it is judged that there may be an unstable tendency, and tsettle is the time required for the generator to enter a balanced working state; Calculate the steady-state power deviation of the generator after tsettle: ΔPss = ΔP × α × (1-exp (-(ΔP × TR / tsettle))); It is determined whether the output power meets the steady-state power deviation, and if the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation, dynamic regulation is performed.

[0064] In an embodiment of the present application, the response time characterizes the time required for the generator to actually adjust the power from receiving the adjustment instruction. It is determined specifically according to the type of generator. The formula (ΔP×TR / tsettle) is used to evaluate the instability that may occur in the generator during the adjustment process. Here, tsettle is the time required for the generator to enter a balanced working state (i.e., the output power is stable). If the value of (ΔP×TR / tsettle) is greater than a preset threshold value θ, it is considered that the generator may have an unstable tendency during the adjustment process. If the stability assessment indicates that there is an unstable tendency, or in order to more accurately predict and adjust the output power of the generator, the steady-state power deviation ΔPss of the generator after the tsettle time can be calculated. After the generator adjusts the power and passes the tsettle time, its actual output power is measured and compared with the calculated steady-state power deviation ΔPss. If the actual output power is consistent with ΔPss, it means that the generator has stabilized at the new power output level and no further regulation is required. If there is a significant difference between the actual output power and ΔPss, it means that the generator has failed to achieve the expected steady-state power and dynamic regulation is required. Assume that a generator needs to increase its power output by 20MW (ΔP=20MW), its response time is 1 minute (TR=60 seconds), and the time required to enter the balanced working state is 5 minutes (tsettle=300 seconds). The preset threshold value θ is a certain empirical value (such as 0.5). The calculation results are: (20×60) / 300=4>θ (assuming θ<4). Since the stability evaluation index is greater than the threshold, it will indicate that there is a stability risk. Once the condition (ΔP×TR / tsettle)>θ is met, the system will switch to the emergency frequency holding mode. At this time, the automatic or semi-automatic mechanism will cut off some less important or less efficient load points from the power grid to reduce the overall load and ensure the overall stability of the power grid.

[0065] The long-term behavior exhibited in the process of re-establishing dynamic balance is used as a reference standard. This standard is obtained by the formula ΔPss=ΔP×α×(1-exp(-(ΔP×TR / tsettle))) where the steady-state power difference ΔPss is determined based on the power difference after the change, as well as a series of exponential functions and constant α. α is used to characterize the coupling effect between the actual recovery ability of the generator and the dynamic characteristics of the system. For example, the constant α is set to 0.7, and the value (-1MW×2s / tsettle=-0.4) is calculated during the dynamic adjustment process after the generator changes. Then the final calculated ΔPss will be equal to 1MW×0.7×(1-e^-0.4). Thus, the steady-state error range of power is obtained. It is assumed that the maximum acceptable deviation does not exceed ±20% of the steady-state power difference ΔPss. If the output power falls within this range, it can be temporarily regarded as not requiring regulation. If not, the next level of dynamic dispatching program will be started to make corresponding adjustments to the power grid.

[0066] In a possible implementation of the embodiment of the present application, if the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation, the dynamic control includes the following steps (not shown in the figure): Determine the target power value.

[0067] In the embodiment of the present application, the load demand of the current power grid, the operating status of other generators and other information are obtained from the power grid dispatching center or the monitoring system. Combined with the rated capacity, operating efficiency and dispatching instructions of the generator, the target power value to be achieved is calculated. Assuming that the power grid dispatching center requires a generator to output 100MW of power in the current period, and the rated capacity of the generator is 150MW, the target power value is set to 100MW.

[0068] A power error |δ(t)| is calculated according to the output power and the target power value.

[0069] In the embodiment of the present application, the current output power value is obtained in real time through the monitoring system of the generator. The real-time monitored output power is compared with the target power value, and the difference is calculated and its absolute value is taken as the power error |δ(t)|. Assuming that the real-time monitored output power is 95MW and the target power value is 100MW, the power error |δ(t)|=|100-95|=5MW.

[0070] If the power error |δ(t)|>=δ_thr, the actual available capacity P_availability of the generator and the thermal stress limit of the generator are obtained.

[0071] It is evaluated whether the power generation can be continuously increased or decreased by ΔT_stable>T_heat×K, where K is the thermal efficiency coefficient, ΔT_stable represents the steady-state temperature rise, and T_heat is the maximum safe temperature increase.

[0072] In the embodiment of the present application, δ_thr represents a preset power control threshold. According to the performance parameters of the generator and the dispatching requirements of the power grid, a power control threshold δ_thr is preset. The calculated power error |δ(t)| is compared with the set threshold δ_thr. This step is to ensure timely response and corresponding power adjustment even in case of small fluctuations. If the above conditions are met, it indicates that the next step needs to be taken to correct the deviation hypothesis. Suppose the set power control threshold δ_thr is 3MW. Since |δ(t)| = 5MW>3MW, further correction is required, and then a restrictive decision of setting a new power target value P_actual≤P_availability is made based on the actual available capacity P_availability of the generator. According to the running time and historical data of the generator, its current thermal stress state is evaluated, and the maximum safe temperature increase T_heat is determined. A formula is used to estimate whether the temperature rise will exceed the allowable limit: that is, the steady-state temperature rise amount (△T_stable) should be greater than a certain safety factor K than the maximum allowable temperature increase (T_heat) (for example, the steady-state temperature rise amount is greater than or equal to the maximum allowable temperature rise multiplied by the safety margin). These conditions comprehensively consider both mechanical stress and temperature stress factors, enabling the adjustment to be safely carried out within the limited boundary range. Suppose the thermal efficiency coefficient K is 0.5. If the predicted steady-state temperature rise ΔT_stable is 4°C after increasing the power generation, then ΔT_stable = 4°C<T_heat×K = 10°C×0.5 = 5°C, indicating that the power generation can be continuously increased. On the contrary, if the predicted decrease in the steady-state temperature after reducing the power generation is not sufficient to meet the safety requirements, the operation of reducing the power generation should not be carried out.

[0073] In the embodiment of the present application, through real-time monitoring and dynamic regulation, abnormal states of the generator can be detected and corrected in a timely manner, reducing the probability of faults. Further, by real-time monitoring and adjusting the output power of the generator, the changes in the power grid load can be quickly responded to, reducing the imbalance between supply and demand, thereby stabilizing the power grid frequency and voltage.

[0074] A possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the method further includes the following steps (not shown in the figure): Obtain the current actual power operation data of each region and the total output data of the power supply end; In an embodiment of the present application, sensors and monitoring equipment installed at each key node of the power grid are used to collect power operation data of each area in real time, including load demand, voltage, current, power factor, etc. At the same time, the total power output data is obtained from the power supply end (such as a power plant, substation, etc.). The collected data is transmitted to a data center or a dispatching center through a communication network (such as optical fiber communication, wireless communication, etc.) for centralized processing and analysis. Assume that there are three areas A, B, and C, and power monitoring equipment is installed in each area. At a certain moment, the load demand in area A is 50MW, in area B is 70MW, and in area C is 30MW. At the same time, the total output data obtained from the power supply end is 160MW.

[0075] The historical grid load data and the total output data of the power supply end are recorded to form a grid supply-demand ratio table.

[0076] In the embodiment of the present application, the grid load data and the total output data of the power supply end in the historical period are sorted, and for each historical period, the ratio of the grid load to the total output of the power supply end, that is, the supply-demand ratio, is calculated. This ratio reflects the supply and demand balance of the grid. The calculated supply-demand ratios are arranged in chronological order to form a grid supply-demand ratio table. This table can be used for subsequent analysis and prediction.

[0077] Assume the following historical data: Period 1: Load demand 150MW, total output 160MW, supply-demand ratio = 150 / 160 = 0.94 Period 2: Load demand 170MW, total output 180MW, supply-demand ratio = 170 / 180≈0.94 ...(and so on) By organizing these data into a table, we can obtain the grid supply-demand ratio table.

[0078] The demand difference for the next cycle is extracted based on the power grid supply-demand ratio table.

[0079] In an embodiment of the present application, a trend analysis is performed on the grid supply-demand ratio table using methods such as statistical analysis or machine learning to predict the supply-demand ratio for the next cycle. The demand difference for the next cycle is calculated based on the predicted supply-demand ratio and the expected load demand (or power supply output). The demand difference can be the difference between the load demand and the predicted output, or the difference between the actual output and the predicted demand, depending on the regulation target. Assume that the supply-demand ratio for the next cycle is predicted to be 0.95 through trend analysis, and the expected load demand is 180MW. The predicted power supply output should be 180 / 0.95≈189.5MW. If the actual available power supply output is 185MW, the required difference is 189.5-185=4.5MW, indicating that the power supply output needs to be increased by 4.5MW or the load demand needs to be reduced by a corresponding amount.

[0080] The above scheme can more accurately predict and regulate the balance of electricity supply and demand, ensuring the stable operation of the power grid.

[0081] The above-mentioned embodiment introduces a power dispatching method from the perspective of method flow, and the following embodiment introduces a power dispatching method device from the perspective of a virtual module or a virtual unit. For details, please refer to the following embodiment.

[0082] The present application embodiment provides a power dispatching method and device, such as Figure 2 As shown, the power dispatching method device 20 may specifically include: a power dispatching method device 20, including: Information acquisition module 201, used to obtain historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end; A peak prediction module 202, configured to predict the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data; A difference prediction module 203, configured to calculate a supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power source; The power output module 204 is configured to adjust the output power based on the supply-demand difference.

[0083] In an embodiment of the present application, the information acquisition module 201 acquires historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end in real time, and the peak prediction module 202 predicts the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end, so that the electronic device can make a power scheduling response in advance. The difference prediction module 203 calculates the supply and demand difference according to the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end, so that the electronic device can accurately obtain the power that needs to be scheduled, and the power output module 204 accurately adjusts the power output power according to the supply and demand difference, thereby improving the power scheduling efficiency.

[0084] In a possible implementation of the embodiment of the present application, when the peak load prediction module 202 predicts the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data, it is specifically used to: Establishing a load model based on the historical power grid load data to analyze power grid load changes; Based on the power grid load changes, analyzing the load growth rate curves in different time periods; The peak load and peak time in the next cycle are determined by a time series analysis method based on the load growth rate curve.

[0085] In a possible implementation of the embodiment of the present application, when the difference prediction module 203 calculates the supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end, it is specifically used to: Obtain the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle; Based on the peak load, calculate the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) within a preset time period; If the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle is less than the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1), the power shortage Edef(t+1) is determined according to the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) and the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle; the additional available power Pe(t+1) is determined according to the remaining capacity of the power supply end; The supply-demand difference is calculated based on the power shortage and the additional investable power, where the supply-demand difference Eadd=Edef(t+1)-Pe(t+1).

[0086] In a possible implementation of the embodiment of the present application, when the power output module 204 adjusts the output power based on the supply-demand difference, it is specifically used to: Determining whether the supply-demand difference is a positive value; If the supply-demand difference is a positive value, it is determined that the power grid is in a shortage state; Get the unit regulation rate Rmax; If the unit adjustment rate Rmax×Δt<|Eadd|, at least one unit needs to be mobilized for a time span of Δt as one adjustment period; Adjust the power increment ΔP of N generators according to the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N; The output power is adjusted based on the power increments ΔP of the N generators.

[0087] In a possible implementation of the embodiment of the present application, the device 20 includes: A data determination module, used to determine a power increment ΔP and a response time TR of the generator; The first judgment module is used to judge that there may be an unstable tendency if (ΔP×TR / tsettle)>θ, where tsettle is the time required for the generator to enter a balanced working state; Deviation calculation module, used to calculate the steady-state power deviation of the generator after tsettle ΔPss=ΔP×α×(1-exp(-(ΔP×TR / tsettle))); The second judgment module is used to judge whether the output power meets the steady-state power deviation, and if the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation, perform dynamic regulation.

[0088] In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, when the second judgment module determines that the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation and then performs dynamic control, it is specifically used to: Determine the target power value; Calculate a power error |δ(t)| according to the output power and the target power value; If the power error |δ(t)|>=δ_thr, the actual available capacity P_availability of the generator and the thermal stress limit of the generator are obtained, where δ_thr represents a preset power control threshold; Whether the power generation can continue to increase or decrease is evaluated by ΔT_stable>T_heat×K, where K is the thermal efficiency coefficient and ΔT_stable represents the steady-state temperature increase, and T_heat is the maximum safe temperature increase.

[0089] In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the device 20 further includes: The regional data acquisition module is used to obtain the current actual power operation data of each region and the total output data of the power supply end; A ratio table formulation module, used for recording the historical grid load data and the total output data of the power supply end to form a grid supply-demand ratio table; The demand difference extraction module is used to extract the demand difference of the next cycle based on the power grid supply and demand ratio table.

[0090] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices and units described above can refer to the corresponding processes in the aforementioned method embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0091] An electronic device is provided in an embodiment of the present application, such as Figure 3 As shown, Figure 3 The electronic device 30 shown includes: a processor 301 and a memory 303. The processor 301 and the memory 303 are connected, such as through a bus 302. Optionally, the electronic device 30 may also include a transceiver 304. It should be noted that in actual applications, the transceiver 304 is not limited to one, and the structure of the electronic device 30 does not constitute a limitation on the embodiments of the present application.

[0092] Processor 301 may be a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a general-purpose processor, a DSP (Digital Signal Processor), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), or other programmable logic devices, transistor logic devices, hardware components, or any combination thereof. It may implement or execute various exemplary logic blocks, modules, and circuits described in conjunction with the disclosure of this application. Processor 301 may also be a combination that implements computing functions, such as a combination of one or more microprocessors, a combination of a DSP and a microprocessor, and the like.

[0093] The bus 302 may include a path to transmit information between the above components. The bus 302 may be a PCI (Peripheral Component Interconnect) bus or an EISA (Extended Industry Standard Architecture) bus. The bus 302 may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For ease of representation, Figure 3 Only one thick line is used in the diagram, but it does not mean that there is only one bus or only one type of bus.

[0094] The memory 303 may be a ROM (Read Only Memory) or other types of static storage devices that can store static information and instructions, a RAM (Random Access Memory) or other types of dynamic storage devices that can store information and instructions, or an EEPROM (Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory), a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read Only Memory) or other optical disk storage, optical disk storage (including compressed optical disk, laser disk, optical disk, digital versatile disk, Blu-ray disk, etc.), a magnetic disk storage medium or other magnetic storage device, or any other medium that can be used to carry or store the desired program code in the form of instructions or data structures and can be accessed by a computer, but is not limited thereto.

[0095] The memory 303 is used to store the application code for executing the scheme of the present application, and the execution is controlled by the processor 301. The processor 301 is used to execute the application code stored in the memory 303 to implement the content shown in the aforementioned method embodiment. Compared with the related art, in the embodiment of the present application, by obtaining the historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end in real time, and predicting the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end, the electronic device can make a power dispatch response in advance, calculate the supply and demand difference according to the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end, so that the electronic device can accurately obtain the power that needs to be dispatched, thereby accurately adjusting the power output power according to the supply and demand difference, thereby improving the power dispatch efficiency.

[0096] The electronic devices include, but are not limited to, mobile terminals such as mobile phones, laptop computers, digital broadcast receivers, PDAs (personal digital assistants), PADs (tablet computers), PMPs (portable multimedia players), vehicle-mounted terminals (such as vehicle-mounted navigation terminals), and fixed terminals such as digital TVs, desktop computers, etc. It can also be a server, etc. Figure 3 The electronic device shown is merely an example and should not bring any limitation to the functions and scope of use of the embodiments of the present application.

[0097] The present application embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when it is run on a computer, the computer can execute the corresponding content in the aforementioned method embodiment. It should be understood that although the various steps in the flowchart of the accompanying drawings are displayed in sequence according to the instructions of the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in sequence in the order indicated by the arrows. Unless there is a clear description in this article, the execution of these steps is not strictly limited in order, and it can be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least a part of the steps in the flowchart of the accompanying drawings may include multiple sub-steps or multiple stages, and these sub-steps or stages are not necessarily executed at the same time, but can be executed at different times, and their execution order is not necessarily carried out in sequence, but can be executed in turn or alternately with other steps or at least a part of the sub-steps or stages of other steps.

[0098] The above description is only a partial implementation method of the present application. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the principles of the present application. These improvements and modifications should also be regarded as the scope of protection of the present application.

Claims

1. A power dispatching method, characterized in that: include: Obtain historical grid load data and remaining capacity at the power source end; Predicting the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data; Calculating a supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power source; Based on the supply-demand difference, the output power is adjusted.

2. A power dispatching method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The predicting of the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data comprises: Establishing a load model based on the historical power grid load data to analyze power grid load changes; Based on the power grid load changes, analyzing the load growth rate curves in different time periods; The peak load and peak time in the next cycle are determined by a time series analysis method based on the load growth rate curve.

3. A power dispatching method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculating the supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end includes: Obtain the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle; Based on the peak load, calculate the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) within a preset time period; If the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle is less than the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1), the power shortage Edef(t+1) is determined according to the maximum power demand Qmax(t+1) and the total dispatched power Psupply(t+1) in the next cycle; Determine the additional available power Pe(t+1) according to the remaining capacity of the power supply end; The supply-demand difference is calculated based on the power shortage and the additional investable power, where the supply-demand difference Eadd=Edef(t+1)-Pe(t+1).

4. A power dispatching method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The adjusting the output power based on the supply-demand difference includes: Determining whether the supply-demand difference is a positive value; If the supply-demand difference is a positive value, it is determined that the power grid is in a shortage state; Get the unit regulation rate Rmax; If the unit adjustment rate Rmax×Δt<|Eadd|, at least one unit needs to be mobilized for a time span of Δt as one adjustment period; Adjust the power increment ΔP of N generators according to the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N; The output power is adjusted based on the power increments ΔP of the N generators.

5. A power dispatching method according to claim 4, characterized in that: The method of adjusting the power increment ΔP of N generators based on the formula ΔP(n,t+1)=|Eadd| / N comprises: Determine the power increment ΔP and the response time TR of the generator; If (ΔP×TR / tsettle)>θ, it is judged that there may be an unstable tendency, and tsettle is the time required for the generator to enter a balanced working state; Calculate the steady-state power deviation of the generator after tsettle: ΔPss = ΔP × α × (1-exp (-(ΔP × TR / tsettle))); It is determined whether the output power meets the steady-state power deviation, and if the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation, dynamic regulation is performed.

6. A power dispatching method according to claim 5, characterized in that: If the output power does not meet the steady-state power deviation, the dynamic control includes: Determine the target power value; Calculate a power error |δ(t)| according to the output power and the target power value; If the power error |δ(t)|>=δ_thr, the actual available capacity P_availability of the generator and the thermal stress limit of the generator are obtained, where δ_thr represents a preset power control threshold; Whether the power generation can continue to increase or decrease is evaluated by ΔT_stable>T_heat×K, where K is the thermal efficiency coefficient, ΔT_stable represents the steady-state temperature increase, and T_heat is the maximum safe temperature increase.

7. A power dispatching method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method further comprises: Obtain the current actual power operation data of each area and the total output data of the power supply end; Recording the historical grid load data and the total output data of the power supply end to form a grid supply-demand ratio table; The demand difference for the next cycle is extracted based on the power grid supply-demand ratio table.

8. A device for power dispatching, characterized in that: include: Information acquisition module, used to obtain historical grid load data and the remaining capacity of the current power supply end; A peak prediction module, used to predict the peak load in the next cycle based on the historical power grid load data; A difference prediction module, used for calculating the supply-demand difference based on the peak load and the remaining capacity of the power supply end; The power output module is used to adjust the output power based on the supply-demand difference.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: It includes: at least one processor; Memory; At least one application, wherein the at least one application is stored in the memory and is configured to be executed by the at least one processor, and the at least one application is used to execute a power dispatching method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed in a computer, the computer is caused to execute a power dispatching method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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