Water source protection risk assessment method based on coupling assessment model

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of water source management, in particular to a water source protection risk assessment method based on a coupling assessment model. The evaluation method comprises the following steps: acquiring the attribution information of a water source, and acquiring a weight coefficient of the attribution information of the water source; the method comprises the following steps: acquiring index information of a water source region, establishing a coupling evaluation model, establishing a coupling relationship between a weight coefficient of the acquired water source region information and the index information of the water source region, and evaluating the water source region protection risk through the coupling evaluation model, wherein the index information comprises a pressure layer index, a state layer index and a response layer index. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupling assessment model provided by the invention takes the coupling assessment model as a core, and reflects internal association of three subsystems of external pressure-system state-response decision and action, so that a more targeted and more accurate direction reference is provided for water source protection and management measure formulation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water source area management, and particularly to a risk assessment method for water source area protection based on a coupling evaluation model. Background Art

[0002] In China, the protection of drinking water is mainly carried out by establishing drinking water source protection areas. A drinking water source protection area is a certain area of water area and land area delimited by the state to prevent pollution of drinking water sources and ensure the environmental quality of water source areas, and special protection is required. In fact, many water quality and ecosystem problems also occur at the watershed level, but relying solely on the water source area protection area cannot achieve complete protection of the water source area. The protection degree of the protection area for the water source area is limited. Therefore, for the environmental safety of the water source area, it is not only necessary to protect the water source area based on the protection area, but also to consider monitoring and management from the watershed level.

[0003] There are many existing methods for evaluating water source areas. The traditional monitoring method is carried out in a "bottom-up" manner, which is statistically collected by grass-roots units and summarized to higher-level units step by step. This monitoring method requires a long time cycle, a large amount of work, and high costs. To solve the above problems, the invention patent with the patent number ZL201110034556.9 discloses a water source area monitoring and evaluation method, which combines remote sensing data such as CCD data of HJ-1A / B with ground monitoring data to obtain the distribution of various indicators for evaluating the safety of the water source area. Then, combined with the evaluation criteria of each indicator, the safety level of each indicator can be obtained. Considering the weight effect of each indicator, the overall safety level of the water source can be obtained. This method uses the analytic hierarchy process and can perform qualitative and quantitative analysis on this basis. It is applicable to target systems with hierarchical and interleaved evaluation indicators. However, there are the following problems with this method: First, there is less quantitative data and more qualitative data, and there is a greater controversy about the reliability of the conclusion; second, when there are too many indicators, the data statistics volume is large, and it is difficult to determine the weights. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a water source area risk prevention and prediction method that starts from the actual needs of water source area management and protection, establishes a combination of overall coverage of the whole region and dissection of typical water source areas, and includes a model and a mathematical model, so as to provide a more targeted and accurate direction reference for the formulation of water source area protection and management measures. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the above technical problems and propose a risk assessment method and control method for water source areas based on an evaluation technology system.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows: A risk assessment method for water source area protection based on a coupling evaluation model, characterized in that the steps of the assessment method are as follows:

[0006] Obtain the territorial information of the water source area, where the territorial information includes water quantity safety information, water quality safety information, water quality ecological stability information, and management guarantee information, and use the analytic hierarchy process to obtain the weight coefficients of the territorial information of the water source area;

[0007] Obtain the index information of the territory of the water source area. The index information includes pressure layer indicators, state layer indicators, and response layer indicators. The pressure layer indicators include influence indicators that directly or indirectly exert pressure on the water source area. The state layer indicators include indicators that can reflect the water quantity safety, water quality safety, and ecological safety status of the water source area. The response layer indicators include indicators of measures taken to reduce various risks brought by the pressure layer to the water source area and improve the water supply safety of the water source area;

[0008] Establish a coupling evaluation model, establish a coupling relationship between the weight coefficients of the territorial information of the water source area and the index information of the territory of the water source area, construct a coupling evaluation model that reflects the pressure layer indicators, state layer indicators, and response layer indicators, and evaluate the protection risks of the water source area through the coupling evaluation model.

[0009] Furthermore, the index layer information of the water quantity safety information includes annual water supply guarantee rate, water intake guarantee rate, operation status of water intake facilities, construction situation of emergency backup water source areas, water quantity online monitoring status, and water quantity dispatching management status.

[0010] Furthermore, the water source areas include lake-reservoir type and river type.

[0011] Furthermore, the index layer information of the water quality safety information of the lake-reservoir type water source area includes social and economic impact index, water quality potential risk index, water quality compliance index of the water intake, comprehensive trophic state index of the water source area, microcystin risk index, water quality change trend, standardized management status of the protection area, and water quality monitoring and early warning status.

[0012] Furthermore, the index layer information of the water quality safety information of the river type includes social and economic impact index, water quality potential risk index, water quality compliance index of the water intake, water quality change trend, standardized management status of the protection area, and water quality monitoring and early warning status.

[0013] Furthermore, the index layer information of the water quality ecological stability information of the lake-reservoir type water source area includes phytoplankton density, biological integrity index of macrozoobenthos, satisfaction degree of ecological base flow discharged from the reservoir, vegetation coverage, and soil and water conservation rate.

[0014] Furthermore, the index layer information of the water quality ecological stability information of the river type water source area includes biological integrity index of macrozoobenthos, river ecological flow guarantee rate, vegetation coverage, and soil and water conservation rate.

[0015] Furthermore, the index layer information for managing safeguard information includes the perfection degree of management systems, risk prevention and control and emergency response capabilities, the perfection degree of policy and regulation systems, and the perfection degree of management teams and financial safeguards.

[0016] Furthermore, the steps for obtaining the weight coefficients of the territorial information of the water source area by using the analytic hierarchy process include: making pairwise comparisons of the index layer information in the territorial information, establishing a hierarchical structure by judging the importance between two indexes to determine the evaluation object, constructing a comparative judgment matrix, substituting it into the characteristic equation for calculation, performing consistency verification, and obtaining the index weight coefficients.

[0017] Furthermore, the characteristic equation is UW = λmaxW to calculate the maximum eigenvalue of U and the corresponding eigenvector W.

[0018] As can be seen from the above description of the present invention, compared with the prior art, the water source area protection risk assessment method provided by the present invention takes the "QQEM-PSR" coupling assessment model as the core. The QQEM architecture can quantitatively reflect the status and relative advantages and disadvantages of each functional layer of water volume, water quality, ecology, and management in the water source area, and at the same time, there is no need to change the specific assessment indexes; the PSR architecture can also reveal the interaction relationship and feedback mechanism between the human society and the natural system by evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of pressure indexes, state indexes, and response indexes, and reflect the internal connection of the three subsystems of "external pressure - system state - response decision-making and action", so as to provide a more targeted and accurate direction reference for formulating water source area protection and management measures. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0019] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the system architecture of the coupling assessment model;

[0020] Figure 2 It is a flow chart for obtaining the weight coefficients of each territorial information of the water source area territorial information by using the analytic hierarchy process. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0021] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0022] As Figures 1 to 2 shown, the water source area protection risk assessment method based on the coupling assessment model is characterized in that the steps of the assessment method are as follows:

[0023] S1. Obtain the territorial information of the water source area, where the territorial information includes water volume safety information (Q), water quality safety information (Q), water quality ecological stability information (E), and management safeguard information (M), and use the analytic hierarchy process to obtain the weight coefficients of each territorial information of the water source area territorial information;

[0024] Among them, the index layer information of water volume safety information includes annual water supply guarantee rate, water intake guarantee rate, operation status of water intake facilities, construction status of emergency backup water source areas, online water volume monitoring status, and water volume dispatching management status;

[0025] The index layer information of water quality safety information of the lake - reservoir type water source areas includes social - economic impact index, water quality potential risk index, water quality compliance index of water intake points, comprehensive trophic state index of water source areas, microcystin risk index, water quality change trend, standardized management status of protection areas, and water quality monitoring and early warning status. The index layer information of water quality safety information of the river type includes social - economic impact index, water quality potential risk index, water quality compliance index of water intake points, water quality change trend, standardized management status of protection areas, and water quality monitoring and early warning status;

[0026] The index layer information of water quality ecological stability information of the lake - reservoir type water source areas includes phytoplankton density, biological integrity index of macro - benthic invertebrates, satisfaction degree of ecological base flow discharged from reservoirs, vegetation coverage status, and soil and water conservation rate. The index layer information of water quality ecological stability information of the river type water source areas includes biological integrity index of macro - benthic invertebrates, river ecological flow guarantee rate, vegetation coverage status, and soil and water conservation rate;

[0027] The index layer information of management guarantee information includes perfection degree of management systems, risk prevention, control and emergency response capabilities, perfection degree of policy and regulation systems, and perfection degree of management team and capital guarantee. The specific indicators are shown in Table S1 - 1:

[0028] Table S1 - 1 Comprehensive Evaluation Indexes for the Protection and Management of Lake - reservoir Type and River Type Drinking Water Source Areas

[0029]

[0030]

[0031]

[0032]

[0033] S2. Pair - wise comparison is made on the index layer information in the territorial information to judge the importance between two indicators, construct a pairwise comparison judgment matrix, and conduct consistency verification to obtain the index weight coefficients;

[0034] Pair - wise comparison is made on the index layer information in the territorial information. By judging the importance between two indicators, a hierarchical structure is established to determine the evaluation object, a comparison judgment matrix U is constructed, and it is substituted into the characteristic equation for calculation. The characteristic equation is UW = λmaxW. Calculate the maximum eigenvalue of U and the corresponding eigenvector W, and conduct consistency verification to obtain the index weight coefficients.

[0035] Considering the service functions of water source areas comprehensively, water quantity safety and water quality safety are equally important. Compared with ecological stability, they are "slightly more important", and compared with management guarantee, they are "extremely important". According to this principle, a discrimination matrix for the service function layer is constructed, and the weight vector values are obtained. See Table S2-1 for details.

[0036] Table S2-1 Discrimination Matrix for the Service Function Layer of Water Source Areas

[0037] Service function layer Water quantity safety Water quality safety Ecological stability Management guarantee Water quantity safety 1 1 3 7 Water quality safety 1 1 3 7 Ecological stability 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 7 / 3 Management guarantee 1 / 7 1 / 7 3 / 7 1

[0038] Among the water quantity safety indicators, the annual water supply guarantee rate, the water intake guarantee rate, and the operation status of water intake facilities are equally important. Compared with the construction of emergency backup water source areas, they are slightly more important, and compared with the online water quantity monitoring status and the water quantity dispatching management status, they are "significantly more important". According to this principle, a discrimination matrix for the water quantity safety indicator layer is constructed, and the weight vector values are obtained. See Table S2-2 for details.

[0039] Table S2-2 Discrimination Matrix for the Water Quantity Safety Indicator Layer of Water Source Areas

[0040]

[0041] Among the water quality safety indicators, for river-type drinking water source areas, the social and economic impact index and the standardized management status of the protection area are relatively the least important among all indicators and are equally important. The water quality potential risk index is the most important among all indicators and is "strongly more important" compared with the above two. The water quality compliance index at the water intake and the water quality change trend are equally important and are "extremely important" compared with the above two. The water quality monitoring and early warning status is "significantly more important" compared with the above two. According to this principle, a discrimination matrix for the water quality safety indicator layer of river-type drinking water source areas is constructed, and the weight vector values are obtained. For reservoir-type drinking water source areas, the social and economic impact index and the standardized management status of the protection area are relatively the least important among all indicators and are equally important. The water quality potential risk index is the most important among all indicators and is "strongly more important" compared with the above two. The water quality compliance index at the water intake, the microcystin risk index, and the water quality change trend are equally important and are "extremely important" compared with the above two. The comprehensive trophic state index of the water source area and the water quality monitoring and early warning status are "significantly more important" compared with the above two. According to this principle, a discrimination matrix for the water quality safety indicator layer of reservoir-type drinking water source areas is constructed, and the weight vector values are obtained. See Table S2-3 for details.

[0042] Table S2-3 Discrimination Matrix for the Water Quality Safety Indicator Layer of Water Source Areas (River-Type)

[0043]

[0044] Table S2-4 Discrimination Matrix for the Water Quality Safety Indicator Layer of Water Source Areas (Reservoir-Type)

[0045]

[0046]

[0047] Among the ecological stability indicators, for river - type drinking water source areas, the vegetation coverage and soil and water conservation rate have the relatively lowest importance among all indicators and are equally important. The river ecological flow guarantee rate is the most important among all indicators and is "extremely important" compared with the above two. The biological integrity index of macro - benthic invertebrates is "significantly important" compared with the above two. According to this principle, a discriminant matrix for the ecological stability indicator layer of river - type drinking water source areas is constructed, and the weight vector values are obtained. For lake - reservoir - type drinking water source areas, the vegetation coverage and soil and water conservation rate have the relatively lowest importance among all indicators and are equally important. The density of phytoplankton and the biological integrity index of macro - benthic invertebrates are the most important among all indicators, "extremely important" compared with the above two, and "significantly important" compared with the satisfaction degree of the ecological base flow discharged from the reservoir. According to this principle, a discriminant matrix for the ecological stability indicator layer of lake - reservoir - type drinking water source areas is constructed, and the weight vector values are obtained. See Table S2 - 5 for details.

[0048] Table S2 - 5 Discriminant Matrix of the Ecological Stability Indicator Layer of the Water Source Area (River - type)

[0049]

[0050] Table S2 - 5 Discriminant Matrix of the Ecological Stability Indicator Layer of the Water Source Area (Lake - reservoir - type)

[0051]

[0052] Among the management guarantee indicators, the risk prevention and control and emergency response ability indicators are the most important among all indicators, "slightly important" compared with the perfection of the management system, and "extremely important" compared with the perfection of the policy and regulation system and the perfection of the management team and capital guarantee. According to this principle, a discriminant matrix for the management guarantee indicator layer of the drinking water source area is constructed, and the weight vector values are obtained. See Table S2 - 6 for details.

[0053] Table S2 - 6 Discriminant Matrix of the Management Guarantee Indicator Layer of the Water Source Area

[0054]

[0055] The weights of the water source area indicators obtained by calculating the characteristic equation and normalizing the eigenvector are shown in Table S2 - 7 as follows:

[0056] Table S2 - 7 Water Source Area Indicator Weight Table

[0057]

[0058]

[0059] S3. The index information of the water source area where the root obtains water, and the index information includes pressure layer indexes, state layer indexes, and response layer indexes. The pressure layer indexes include influence indexes that directly or indirectly exert pressure on the water source area. The state layer indexes include indexes that can reflect the water quantity safety, water quality safety, and ecological safety status of the water source area. The response layer indexes include indexes of measures taken to reduce various risks brought by the pressure layer to the water source area and improve the water supply safety of the water source area;

[0060] S4. Establish a coupling evaluation model, establish a coupling relationship between the weight coefficients of each territorial information of the obtained territorial information of the water source area and the index information of the territorial area of the water source area, construct a coupling evaluation model that reflects the pressure layer index (P), state layer index (S), and response layer index (R), and evaluate the protection risk of the water source area through the coupling evaluation model.

[0061] In summary, the water source area protection risk assessment method provided by the present invention takes the "QQEM-PSR" coupling evaluation model as the core. The QQEM architecture can quantitatively reflect the status and relative advantages and disadvantages of each functional layer of the water quantity, water quality, ecology, and management of the water source area, and at the same time, there is no need to change the specific evaluation indexes; the PSR architecture can also reveal the interaction relationship and feedback mechanism between the human society and the natural system by evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of the pressure index, state index, and response index, and reflect the internal connection of the three subsystems of "external pressure - system state - response decision and action", so as to provide a more targeted and accurate direction reference for the formulation of water source area protection and management measures.

[0062] The above are only several specific implementation manners of the present invention, but the design concept of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any non-substantive modification made to the present invention using this concept shall fall within the scope of infringement of the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model is characterized by: The steps of this assessment method are as follows: Obtaining the territorial information of the water source, the territorial information includes water quantity safety information, water quality safety information, water quality ecological stability information, and management guarantee information, and using the hierarchical analysis method to obtain the weight coefficient of the territorial information of the water source; Obtaining indicator information of the water source, the indicator information includes pressure layer indicators, status layer indicators, and response layer indicators. The pressure layer indicators include indicators that exert direct or indirect pressure on the water source, the status layer indicators include indicators that can reflect the water quantity safety, water quality safety, and ecological safety status of the water source, and the response layer indicators include indicators of measures taken to reduce various risks brought by the pressure layer to the water source and improve the water supply safety of the water source; A coupling assessment model is established to establish a coupling relationship between the weight coefficient of the water source location information and the indicator information of the water source location, and a coupling assessment model of reaction pressure layer indicators, state layer indicators, and response layer indicators is constructed. The water source protection risk is evaluated through the coupling assessment model.

2. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model according to claim 1 is characterized by: The indicator layer information of the water volume security information includes the annual water supply guarantee rate, the water intake guarantee rate, the operation status of the water intake facilities, the construction status of the emergency backup water source, the online water volume monitoring status, and the water volume scheduling and management status.

3. The water source risk assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The water sources include lake and reservoir types and river types.

4. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model according to claim 3 is characterized by: The indicator layer information of the water quality safety information of the lake-reservoir type water source includes the socio-economic impact index, the water quality potential risk index, the water intake water quality compliance index, the water source comprehensive nutrient status index, the microcystin risk index, the water quality change trend, the standardized management status of the protected area, and the water quality monitoring and early warning status.

5. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model according to claim 3 is characterized by: The indicator layer information of the water quality safety information of the river type includes the socio-economic impact index, the water quality potential risk index, the water quality compliance index of the water intake, the water quality change trend, the standardized management status of the protected area, and the water quality monitoring and early warning status.

6. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model according to claim 3 is characterized by: The indicator layer information of the water quality ecological stability information of the lake-reservoir type water source area includes phytoplankton density, large benthic invertebrate biological integrity index, reservoir downstream ecological base flow satisfaction degree, vegetation coverage status, and soil and water conservation rate.

7. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model according to claim 3 is characterized by: The indicator layer information of the water quality ecological stability information of the river-type water source area includes the biological integrity index of large benthic invertebrates, river ecological flow guarantee rate, vegetation coverage status, and soil and water conservation rate.

8. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model according to claim 1 is characterized by: The indicator-level information of the management guarantee information includes the perfection of the management system, risk prevention and control and emergency response capabilities, the perfection of the policy and regulatory system, and the perfection of the management team and financial guarantee.

9. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model according to claim 1 is characterized by: The step of using the hierarchical analysis method to obtain the weight coefficient of the water source location information includes: comparing the indicator layer information in the location information in pairs, establishing a hierarchical structure to determine the evaluation object by judging the importance between two indicators, constructing a comparison judgment matrix, bringing it into the characteristic equation calculation, performing consistency verification, and obtaining the indicator weight coefficient.

10. The water source protection risk assessment method based on the coupled assessment model according to claim 1 is characterized by: The characteristic equation is UW=λmaxW, which calculates the maximum eigenvalue of U and the corresponding eigenvector W.

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