Power supply guarantee methods, devices, equipment, and media based on load-coordinated regulation

Abstract

This invention belongs to the field of power supply security technology, specifically relating to a power supply security method based on load coordinated regulation. The method includes: obtaining the main power grid's power supply security level and load regulation capacity; generating a regional power grid load regulation capacity based on the main power grid's power supply security level and load regulation capacity; formulating a basic power supply security plan based on the regional power grid load regulation capacity; constructing an intraday time-series correlation scenario to predict the risks of the basic power supply security plan and obtain risk indicators; verifying the basic power supply security plan based on the risk indicators; if the verification fails, revising the basic power supply security plan based on the risk indicators to obtain a revised plan as the final basic power supply security plan; and obtaining the final basic power supply security plan when the verification passes. This improves the flexibility of power grid operation and enhances the power service level during power supply security periods.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of power supply security technology, specifically relating to a power supply security method, device, equipment and medium based on load coordinated regulation. Background Technology

[0002] Currently, the installed capacity of new energy power plants such as wind power and photovoltaic power continues to climb. However, the operation of these new energy units is characterized by significant intermittency and randomness, leading to increased uncertainty on the power supply side of the power system. On the demand side, electricity loads such as air conditioning, electric heating, and electric vehicles, which exhibit seasonality and spatiotemporal randomness, are growing rapidly. Affected by the combined influence of these factors, tight power balance scenarios occur frequently, especially during peak summer and winter periods. In some areas, the power grid experiences localized and time-limited power shortages due to extreme weather and meteorological conditions, even forcing the implementation of measures such as power outages and rationing, resulting in severe pressure on power supply. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The purpose of this invention is to provide a power supply guarantee method, device, equipment and medium based on load coordinated regulation, so as to solve the problem of high pressure on power supply guarantee caused by the uncertainty of the power supply side and the demand side in the power grid in the background art.

[0004] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solution:

[0005] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation, comprising:

[0006] Obtain the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity;

[0007] The regional power grid load regulation capacity is generated based on the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity.

[0008] A basic power supply guarantee plan shall be formulated based on the aforementioned regional power grid load regulation capacity.

[0009] Construct intraday time-series correlation scenarios to predict risks in basic power supply security plans and obtain risk indicators;

[0010] The basic power supply guarantee plan is checked based on risk indicators; if it fails the check, the basic power supply guarantee plan is revised based on risk indicators to obtain the revised power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan; if it passes the check, the final basic power supply guarantee plan is obtained.

[0011] The steps for formulating a basic power supply guarantee plan based on the regional power grid load regulation capacity include:

[0012] Obtain the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, calculate the price elasticity capacity based on the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, and use the price elasticity capacity as the peak shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy;

[0013] By comparing the regional load capacity and peak shaving capacity, the time periods when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity are determined.

[0014] An optimization model is constructed for periods when the load regulation capacity of the region is insufficient to cover the entire area, and an optimization strategy is determined. The optimization model includes an objective function that minimizes the sum of peak-shifting power, peak-avoidance power, and power-limiting power, as well as the corresponding constraints.

[0015] Based on the optimization strategy and constraints, the objective function is solved to obtain the basic scheme for power supply security.

[0016] The steps for constructing intraday time-series correlation scenarios to predict risks in basic power supply security plans and obtain risk indicators include:

[0017] A daily time-series correlation scenario is constructed to obtain short-time-series random samples, and short-term operational risk indicators are calculated. These risk indicators include the probability of daily load outage and the expected daily load loss. The calculation formulas are as follows:

[0018]

[0019] In the above formula, L OLP Indicates the probability of load outages during the day. M This represents the total number of samples in intraday time-series correlation scenarios. For the first m The number of power outage hours included in the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples; E ELO This indicates the expected power loss during the day. It is the first m The first of the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples h The probability of a 24-hour load outage.

[0020] The steps for verifying the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators include:

[0021] Plot the ICER curves for intraday load outage probability and intraday expected load loss, and determine the risk threshold using the curves. ε ILOLP , ε IEELO If the basic power supply guarantee scheme meets the following formula, then when the scheme passes the verification, the basic power supply guarantee scheme will be output:

[0022]

[0023] If the basic power supply guarantee plan fails to pass verification, the load regulation capacity of the main power grid shall be increased according to the ICER curve. P R ( h The above formula is satisfied until the power supply guarantee modified scheme is obtained as the final basic power supply guarantee scheme.

[0024] Preferably, obtaining the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity includes:

[0025] Calculate power deficit P D ( h The calculation formula is as follows:

[0026] (1)

[0027] In the above formula, h For hourly serial numbers, Forecast values ​​of power output from new energy units For the available capacity of thermal power units, For the available capacity of hydropower units, For load power prediction, Reserve capacity;

[0028] Based on annual peak load The benchmark value is calculated according to the following formula. P D ( h Per unit value in percentage form :

[0029]

[0030] according to The size is determined based on the preset level range to establish the main power grid supply guarantee level. s The load regulation capacity of the main power grid is determined according to the main power grid's supply guarantee level. P R ( h ).

[0031] Preferably, the step of generating the load regulation capacity of each regional power grid based on the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity includes:

[0032] Based on a flexible weight allocation mechanism, the load regulation capacity of the main power grid is distributed. P R ( h ), forming a regional power grid i Regulation capacity P R,i ( hThe calculation formula is as follows:

[0033]

[0034] In the above formula, For regional power grid i The flexible weighting factor is determined by h Time-based regional power grid i The weighted average of different load types and their proportions in the main power grid is calculated using the following formula:

[0035]

[0036] In the above formula, N The total number of load types defined by the main grid based on the load classification management needs during the supply guarantee period. n The sequence number of the load type; P n ( h )and P i,n ( h ) are respectively h Main power grid and regional power grid i The n Power of similar loads; h The level of supply at all times is s h , λ n ( s h ) is the first under this supply guarantee level n The weighting coefficients of the class load, and satisfying:

[0037]

[0038] Based on the optimization strategy and constraints, the objective function is solved to obtain the basic scheme for ensuring power supply.

[0039] Preferably, the optimization model specifically includes:

[0040]

[0041] In the above formula, F load_manage Let be the objective function. , , The variables are: peak-shifting power, peak-avoidance power, and power-curtailment power, respectively. , These are the allowable peak-shifting capacity and the allowable peak-avoidance capacity, respectively. For regional power grid i exist h Peak shaving capacity at any given moment; γ s , γ a , γ r These are the peak-shifting penalty coefficient, peak-avoidance penalty coefficient, and power rationing penalty coefficient, respectively.

[0042] Solving the optimization model, when the objective function value is minimized, yields a basic power supply guarantee scheme that includes peak shifting, peak avoidance, and power rationing.

[0043] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a power supply guarantee device based on load coordinated regulation, comprising:

[0044] The data collection module is used to obtain the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity;

[0045] The decomposition module is used to generate the regional power grid load regulation capacity based on the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity.

[0046] A module is used to formulate a basic power supply guarantee plan based on the regional power grid load regulation capacity.

[0047] The module is used to construct intraday time-series correlation scenarios, perform risk prediction on basic power supply guarantee plans, and obtain risk indicators.

[0048] The verification module is used to verify the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators;

[0049] The update module is used to revise the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators when the verification fails, and obtain the revised power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan.

[0050] The acquisition module is used to obtain the final basic plan for power supply security;

[0051] The steps for formulating a basic power supply guarantee plan based on the regional power grid load regulation capacity include:

[0052] Obtain the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, calculate the price elasticity capacity based on the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, and use the price elasticity capacity as the peak shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy;

[0053] By comparing the regional load capacity and peak shaving capacity, the time periods when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity are determined.

[0054] An optimization model is constructed for periods when the load regulation capacity of the region is insufficient to cover the entire area, and an optimization strategy is determined. The optimization model includes an objective function that minimizes the sum of peak-shifting power, peak-avoidance power, and power-limiting power, as well as the corresponding constraints.

[0055] Based on the optimization strategy and constraints, the objective function is solved to obtain the basic scheme for power supply security.

[0056] The steps for constructing intraday time-series correlation scenarios to predict risks in basic power supply security plans and obtain risk indicators include:

[0057] A daily time-series correlation scenario is constructed to obtain short-time-series random samples, and short-term operational risk indicators are calculated. These risk indicators include the probability of daily load outage and the expected daily load loss. The calculation formulas are as follows:

[0058]

[0059] In the above formula, L OLP Indicates the probability of load outages during the day. M This represents the total number of samples in intraday time-series correlation scenarios. For the first m The number of power outage hours included in the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples; E ELO This indicates the expected power loss during the day. It is the first m The first of the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples h The probability of a 24-hour load outage.

[0060] The steps for verifying the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators include:

[0061] Plot the ICER curves for intraday load outage probability and intraday expected load loss, and determine the risk threshold using the curves. ε ILOLP , ε IEELO If the basic power supply guarantee scheme meets the following formula, then when the scheme passes the verification, the basic power supply guarantee scheme will be output:

[0062]

[0063] If the basic power supply guarantee plan fails to pass verification, the load regulation capacity of the main power grid shall be increased according to the ICER curve. P R ( h The above formula is satisfied until the power supply guarantee modified scheme is obtained as the final basic power supply guarantee scheme.

[0064] In a third aspect, the present invention provides an electronic device including a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is configured to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the power supply guarantee method based on load coordination and control.

[0065] In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing at least one instruction that, when executed by a processor, implements the power supply guarantee method based on load coordination and control.

[0066] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0067] In scenarios of power shortage, a power supply guarantee strategy based on load coordination and regulation is generated. Under the premise of achieving power and energy rebalancing, the demand-side flexibility resources under the power market mechanism are fully mobilized to improve the flexibility of power grid operation and improve the power service level of the power grid during the power supply guarantee period.

[0068] We propose to construct intraday time-series correlation scenarios, predict short-term intraday operational risks, and conduct multi-dimensional evaluations of power supply security strategies, increasing consideration of uncertainties in the supply and demand links and improving the ability to withstand disturbances.

[0069] Based on the dynamic electricity price guidance and orderly regulation priority optimization model, the demand-side flexible resources are activated, the grid operation flexibility is significantly improved, and users' autonomy in electricity consumption is guaranteed.

[0070] A multi-dimensional evaluation system is constructed, which includes indicators such as load orderly regulation power, intraday load outage probability, and intraday expected load loss. Thresholds are set in conjunction with the ICER curve to achieve closed-loop verification and incremental correction of the supply guarantee strategy. Attached Figure Description

[0071] The accompanying drawings, which form part of this application, are used to provide a further understanding of the invention. The illustrative embodiments of the invention and their descriptions are used to explain the invention and do not constitute an undue limitation of the invention. In the drawings:

[0072] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0073] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the peak-shaving capability assessment of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0074] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the basic power supply guarantee scheme based on the synergy of dynamic electricity price guidance and orderly load control management in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0075] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of a photovoltaic intraday time series sample for risk simulation in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0076] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the intraday time series load sample for risk simulation in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0077] Figure 6 The ICER curve of the IEELO capacity in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0078] Figure 7 The ICER curve of the ILOLP capacity in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0079] Figure 8 This is a structural block diagram of a power supply guarantee device based on load coordinated regulation according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention;

[0080] Figure 9 This is a structural block diagram of an electronic device according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0081] The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in this application can be combined with each other.

[0082] The following detailed description is exemplary and intended to provide further detailed explanation of the invention. Unless otherwise specified, all technical terms used in this invention have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application pertains. The terminology used in this invention is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to limit the scope of exemplary embodiments according to the invention.

[0083] Example 1

[0084] like Figure 1 As shown, a power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation includes:

[0085] Step 1: Obtain the main power grid supply guarantee level and main power grid load regulation capacity:

[0086] Calculate the power deficit capacity by forecasting load and renewable energy power. P D ( h To assess the power supply and demand balance of the main power grid, the formula for calculating the power deficit capacity is shown in equation (1):

[0087] (1)

[0088] In equation (1), h For hourly serial numbers, Forecast values ​​of power output from new energy units Available capacity of thermal power units Available capacity of hydropower units Forecasted load power Backup capacity;

[0089] Based on annual peak load The benchmark value is calculated according to formula (2). P D ( h Per unit value in percentage form P * D( h ):

[0090] (2)

[0091] according to P * D( h The size of the load is determined according to the range in Table 1 to determine the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity. P R ( h ):

[0092] Table 1. Main Power Grid Supply Guarantee Level and Main Power Grid Load Regulation Capacity

[0093]

[0094] It should be noted that the number of value intervals and boundary values ​​in Table 1 can be adjusted according to the actual operation of the power grid.

[0095] Step 2: Based on the main power grid's supply guarantee level and load regulation capacity, a flexible weighted allocation mechanism is used to generate the regional power grid's load regulation capacity.

[0096] In order to reasonably distribute the main grid load regulation capacity generated in step one among the regional power grids P R ( h This invention proposes a flexible weight allocation mechanism to distribute the main grid load regulation capacity and form regional power grid load. i Regulation capacity P R,i ( h The calculation formula is as follows:

[0097] (3)

[0098] In equation (3), For regional power grid i The flexible weighting factor is determined by h Time-based regional power grid i The weighted average of different load types and their proportions in the main power grid is calculated using the following formula:

[0099] (4)

[0100] In equation (4), N The total number of load types defined by the main grid based on the load classification management needs during the supply guarantee period.n The sequence number of the load type; P n ( h )and P i,n ( h ) are respectively h The first moment of the main grid and regional power grid n Power of load type; assuming h The level of supply at all times is s h , λ n ( s h ) is the first under this supply guarantee level n The weighting coefficients of the load class satisfy equation (5):

[0101] (5)

[0102] The method proposed in this invention supports main grid operators in flexibly designing and defining load classification management schemes during power supply guarantee periods. N =1, meaning no distinction is made between load types, and this satisfies the condition. λ n ( s h )≡1, Flexible weighting factor The load is determined by the proportion of the regional power grid load in the main grid; when differentiated load management is required, it is defined as needed. λ n ( s h ).

[0103] Specifically, taking the three load classifications as an example:

[0104] 1) Classify the main grid load and regional grid load into three categories: total load, high energy consumption load, and high emission load;

[0105] 2) For the three load categories, define three load weighting coefficients: total load weighting coefficient. λ 1( s h Energy consumption weighting coefficient λ 2( s h ), emission weighting coefficient λ 3( s h );

[0106] 3) Differentiate the weighting coefficients based on the supply guarantee level: In scenarios with a higher supply guarantee level, the total amount weight is the dominant factor to improve the efficiency of supply guarantee measures; in scenarios with a lower supply guarantee level, both energy consumption weight and emission weight are taken into account to optimize the effect of supply guarantee strategies in terms of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction.

[0107] 4) After determining the assignment scheme of each weight factor, generate the regional power grid load regulation capacity according to formulas (3)-(5).

[0108] Table 2 presents a weighting factor assignment scheme:

[0109] Table 2 Differentiated Weighting Scheme for Power Grid Supply Guarantee Level

[0110]

[0111] Step 3: Based on the aforementioned regional power grid load regulation capacity, formulate a basic power supply guarantee plan that coordinates dynamic electricity price guidance and orderly load regulation management.

[0112] First, obtain the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance. Then, calculate the price elasticity capacity based on the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, and use the price elasticity capacity as the peak-shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy.

[0113] The peak-shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy is assessed, and the daily load level after dynamic electricity price guidance is expressed as a superposition of baseline load capacity and price elasticity capacity:

[0114] (6)

[0115] In the above formula, This represents the load in the h-th hour following the implementation of dynamic electricity pricing. The baseline load capacity for hour h and Let be the price elasticity capacity for the h-th hour, where the baseline load capacity is obtained from the load forecasting process, and the price elasticity capacity is estimated using the following formula:

[0116] (7)

[0117] In the above formula, e h,h It is the first h The self-elasticity coefficient of the hour e i,j ( i , j =1, 2, … , 24, i ≠ j ) is the first i , j The mutual elasticity coefficient per hourd 0( h The change in the initial electricity price, Δ d ( h () represents the change in dynamic electricity price compared to the initial electricity price.

[0118] Taking the TOU electricity pricing mechanism as an example, this paper further explains the methods for determining the values ​​of the self-elasticity coefficient and the mutual elasticity coefficient.

[0119] For the self-elasticity coefficient:

[0120] (8)

[0121] For the mutual elasticity coefficient:

[0122] (9)

[0123] Among them, U peak U off-peak and U valley To implement TOU electricity pricing during peak, normal, and off-peak hours; e p-p , e o-o and e v-v These are the self-elasticity coefficients for peak hours, normal hours, and valley hours, respectively. e p-o , e p-v and e o-v The mutual elasticity coefficients for peak-hour period, peak-hour period, and peak-hour period, respectively.

[0124] The self-elasticity coefficient and mutual elasticity coefficient are related to the load type, and their values ​​are shown in Table 3:

[0125] Table 3 Self-elasticity coefficient and mutual elasticity coefficient under the TOU mechanism

[0126]

[0127] According to formulas (6)-(9), the price elasticity capacity of daily load over 24 hours is calculated; where the price elasticity capacity during peak hours is the peak-shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy, thereby completing the peak-shaving capacity assessment of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy. The peak-shaving effect of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy is as follows: Figure 2 As shown;

[0128] By comparing the regional load capacity and peak shaving capacity, the time periods when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity are determined.

[0129] An optimization model is constructed for periods when the load control capacity of the region is insufficient to cover the entire area, and optimization strategies are determined. This invention uses peak shifting, peak avoidance, and power curtailment as the basic optimization strategies, with peak shifting having the highest priority, followed by peak avoidance, and power curtailment having the lowest priority. The optimization model includes an objective function that minimizes the sum of peak shifting power, peak avoidance power, and power curtailment power, along with corresponding constraints, calculated using the optimization model expressed by the following formula:

[0130] (10)

[0131] In the above formula, F load_manage Let be the objective function. , , The variables are: peak-shifting power, peak-avoidance power, and power-curtailment power, respectively. , These are the allowable peak-shifting capacity and the allowable peak-avoidance capacity, respectively. For regional power grid i exist h Peak shaving capacity at any given moment; γ s , γ a , γ r These are the peak-shifting penalty coefficient, peak-avoidance penalty coefficient, and power-limiting penalty coefficient, respectively, used to reflect the priority of orderly load control. In this embodiment, they are assigned values ​​of 0.1, 1.0, and 10.0, respectively.

[0132] Solving the optimization model, when the objective function is minimized, yields a basic power supply guarantee scheme that includes peak shifting, peak avoidance, and power rationing, such as... Figure 3 As shown.

[0133] Step 4: Construct intraday time-series correlation scenarios to predict risks in the basic power supply guarantee plan and obtain risk indicators:

[0134] By overlaying short-term forecast data of distributed power sources and loads with disturbance data, a daily time-series correlation scenario for photovoltaic power sources is constructed for risk extrapolation: the first... m The intraday time series sample h hourly power generation capacity P PV,m ( h As shown below:

[0135] (11)

[0136] In the above formula, The basic generating capacity of photovoltaic power (at 25) o C. Reference Irradiance G(Power generation capacity at 0), is a constant; C is the influence coefficient of irradiance intensity on temperature; G ( h ), T ( h These are the predicted values ​​for daily radiation intensity and temperature, respectively. v m,h The meteorological disturbance factor follows a normal distribution with a mean of 0, i.e.

[0137] (12)

[0138] The variance of meteorological data prediction reflects the accuracy of meteorological forecasts.

[0139] A time-series sample of a photovoltaic power source constructed in this invention is as follows: Figure 4 As shown.

[0140] Constructing a scenario for intraday time-series correlation of wind power generation:

[0141] Based on a large amount of weather data, the Weibull probability distribution function is used for modeling. The Weibull expression (13) and the probability density function expression (16) for wind speed are as follows:

[0142] (13)

[0143] (14)

[0144] In the formula, v Represents the actual wind speed. a For scale parameters, b The shape parameter is b = 1.8–2.8. This paper selects... a =6, b Simulation was performed using a value of 1.8.

[0145] The functional relationship between the active power output of wind power generation and wind speed is shown below:

[0146] (15)

[0147] In the formula, P WT This refers to the active power output of the wind turbine. P e This is the maximum output power of the fan. v r , v c and v e These are the cut-in wind speed, cut-out wind speed, and rated wind speed of the fan, respectively.

[0148] It should be noted that the construction of intraday time-series correlation scenarios for other types of new energy sources can be achieved by referring to the photovoltaic unit modeling method and wind turbine generator modeling method of this invention. For the sake of simplicity, this embodiment takes photovoltaic and wind power as examples and will not elaborate on other new energy types one by one.

[0149] Secondly, the present invention also constructs a time-series correlation scenario that reflects load uncertainty factors, as shown in the following formula.

[0150] (16)

[0151] In the above formula, P load,m ( h ) is the first m The intraday time series sample h Hourly load power; P load,0 ( h This represents the load forecast value taking meteorological factors into account. r m,h Let be the load forecasting error coefficient, and be a continuous random variable that follows a normal distribution.

[0152] (17)

[0153] The load forecast variance reflects the accuracy of the load forecast.

[0154] This invention constructs an intraday time-series correlation scenario as follows: Figure 5 As shown.

[0155] By obtaining short-time-series random samples through intraday time-series correlation scenarios, short-term operational risk indicators are calculated. These risk indicators include the intraday load outage probability and the intraday expected load loss, calculated using the following formulas:

[0156] (18)

[0157] In the above formula, L OLP Indicates the probability of load outages during the day. M This represents the total number of samples in intraday time-series correlation scenarios. For the first m The number of power outage hours included in the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples; E ELO This indicates the expected power loss during the day. It is the first m The first of the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples h The probability of a 24-hour load outage.

[0158] Step 5: Verify the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators; if the verification fails, revise the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk indicators to obtain the revised plan, which serves as the final basic power supply guarantee plan; if the verification passes, the final basic power supply guarantee plan is obtained.

[0159] Plot the ICER curve of intraday load outage probability. γ E ICER curve of expected daily load loss γ L The risk threshold during the power grid supply guarantee period is determined by curves. ε ILOLP , ε IEELO If the basic power supply guarantee scheme meets the formula (19), then the scheme passes the verification.

[0160] (19)

[0161] Specifically, the main grid load regulation capacity will be increased in increments of a certain amount. P R ( h This allows for the updating of the basic power supply guarantee plan, scanning of risk indicators corresponding to each plan, and plotting ICER curves. In this embodiment, 100 data points are calculated using 0.01 pu as the initial increment and growth step, forming the ICER curve as shown below. Figure 6 , Figure 7 As shown.

[0162] This invention sets the ICER threshold to 0.5. Figure 6 , Figure 7 By determining the range of risk thresholds, we can obtain: ε IEELO =8.017MWh, ε ILOLP =0.005.

[0163] If the basic power supply guarantee plan fails to pass the verification, then it is necessary to... Figure 6 , Figure 7 Make corrections:

[0164] choose ε IEELO and ε ILOLP Corresponding P R ( h Incremental value, update P R ( h The revised power supply plan was obtained and became the final basic power supply plan.

[0165] Example 2

[0166] like Figure 8 As shown, based on the same inventive concept as the above embodiments, the present invention also provides a power supply guarantee device based on load coordinated regulation, comprising:

[0167] The data collection module is used to obtain the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity;

[0168] The decomposition module is used to generate the regional power grid load regulation capacity based on the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity.

[0169] A module is used to formulate a basic power supply guarantee plan based on the regional power grid load regulation capacity.

[0170] The module is used to construct intraday time-series correlation scenarios, perform risk prediction on basic power supply guarantee plans, and obtain risk indicators.

[0171] The verification module is used to verify the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators. If the verification fails, the basic power supply guarantee plan is revised based on the risk indicators to obtain the revised power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan. If the verification passes, the final basic power supply guarantee plan is obtained.

[0172] Example 3

[0173] like Figure 9 As shown, the present invention also provides an electronic device 100 for implementing a power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation;

[0174] The electronic device 100 includes a memory 101, at least one processor 102, a computer program 103 stored in the memory 101 and executable on at least one processor 102, and at least one communication bus 104.

[0175] The memory 101 can be used to store the computer program 103. The processor 102 implements the steps of the power supply guarantee method based on load coordination and control in Embodiment 1 by running or executing the computer program stored in the memory 101 and calling the data stored in the memory 101.

[0176] The memory 101 may primarily include a program storage area and a data storage area. The program storage area may store the operating system, application programs required for at least one function (such as sound playback function, image playback function, etc.), etc.; the data storage area may store data created based on the use of the electronic device 100 (such as audio data), etc. In addition, the memory 101 may include non-volatile memory, such as hard disk, RAM, plug-in hard disk, smart media card (SMC), secure digital (SD) card, flash card, at least one disk storage device, flash memory device, or other non-volatile solid-state storage device.

[0177] At least one processor 102 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. Processor 102 may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor. Processor 102 is the control center of electronic device 100, connecting various parts of electronic device 100 via various interfaces and lines.

[0178] The memory 101 in the electronic device 100 stores multiple instructions to implement a power supply guarantee method based on load coordination and control, and the processor 102 can execute multiple instructions to achieve the following:

[0179] Obtain the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity;

[0180] The regional power grid load regulation capacity is generated based on the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity.

[0181] A basic power supply guarantee plan shall be formulated based on the aforementioned regional power grid load regulation capacity.

[0182] Construct intraday time-series correlation scenarios to predict risks in basic power supply security plans and obtain risk indicators;

[0183] The basic power supply guarantee plan is checked based on risk indicators; if the check fails, the basic power supply guarantee plan is revised based on risk indicators to obtain the revised power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan; if the check passes, the final basic power supply guarantee plan is obtained.

[0184] Example 4

[0185] If the modules / units integrated in the electronic device 100 are implemented as software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments of the present invention can also be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when executed by a processor, it can implement the steps of the various method embodiments described above. The computer program includes computer program code, which can be in the form of source code, object code, executable files, or certain intermediate forms. The computer-readable medium can include: any entity or device capable of carrying computer program code, recording media, USB flash drives, portable hard drives, magnetic disks, optical disks, computer memory, and read-only memory (ROM).

[0186] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0187] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0188] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0189] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0190] In the description of this specification, references to terms such as "an embodiment," "example," "specific example," etc., indicate that a specific feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with that embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, the illustrative expressions of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments or examples.

[0191] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific implementation of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation, characterized in that, include: Obtain the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity; The regional power grid load regulation capacity is generated based on the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity. A basic power supply guarantee plan shall be formulated based on the aforementioned regional power grid load regulation capacity. Construct intraday time-series correlation scenarios to predict risks in basic power supply security plans and obtain risk indicators; The basic power supply guarantee plan was verified based on risk indicators; If the verification fails, the basic power supply guarantee plan is revised based on the risk indicators to obtain the revised power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan. The final basic plan for ensuring power supply is obtained through verification. The steps for formulating a basic power supply guarantee plan based on the regional power grid load regulation capacity include: Obtain the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, calculate the price elasticity capacity based on the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, and use the price elasticity capacity as the peak shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy; By comparing the regional load capacity and peak shaving capacity, the time periods when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity are determined. An optimization model is constructed for periods when the load regulation capacity of the region is insufficient to cover the entire area, and an optimization strategy is determined. The optimization model includes an objective function that minimizes the sum of peak-shifting power, peak-avoidance power, and power-limiting power, as well as the corresponding constraints. Based on the optimization strategy and constraints, the objective function is solved to obtain the basic scheme for power supply security. The steps for constructing intraday time-series correlation scenarios to predict risks in basic power supply security plans and obtain risk indicators include: A daily time-series correlation scenario is constructed to obtain short-time-series random samples, and short-term operational risk indicators are calculated. These risk indicators include the probability of daily load outage and the expected daily load loss. The calculation formulas are as follows: In the above formula, L OLP Indicates the probability of load outages during the day. M This represents the total number of samples in intraday time-series correlation scenarios. For the first m The number of power outage hours included in the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples; E ELO This indicates the expected power loss during the day. It is the first m The first of the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples h The probability of a 24-hour load outage; The steps for verifying the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators include: Plot the ICER curves for intraday load outage probability and intraday expected load loss, and determine the risk threshold using the curves. ε ILOLP , ε IEELO If the basic power supply guarantee scheme meets the following formula, then when the scheme passes the verification, the basic power supply guarantee scheme will be output: If the basic power supply guarantee plan fails to pass verification, the load regulation capacity of the main power grid shall be increased according to the ICER curve. P R ( h The above formula is satisfied until the power supply guarantee modified scheme is obtained as the final basic power supply guarantee scheme.

2. The power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The acquisition of the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity includes: Calculate power deficit P D ( h The calculation formula is as follows: In the above formula, h For hourly serial numbers, Forecast values ​​of power output from new energy units For the available capacity of thermal power units, For the available capacity of hydropower units, For load power prediction, Reserve capacity; Based on annual peak load The benchmark value is calculated according to the following formula. P D ( h Per unit value in percentage form : according to The size is determined based on the preset level range to establish the main power grid supply guarantee level. s The load regulation capacity of the main power grid is determined according to the main power grid's supply guarantee level. .

3. The power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The process of generating the load regulation capacity of each regional power grid based on the main power grid's supply guarantee level and load regulation capacity includes: Based on a flexible weight allocation mechanism, the load regulation capacity of the main power grid is distributed. P R ( h ), forming a regional power grid i Regulation capacity P R,i ( h The calculation formula is as follows: In the above formula, For regional power grid i The flexible weighting factor is determined by h Time-based regional power grid i The weighted average of different load types and their proportions in the main power grid is calculated using the following formula: In the above formula, N The total number of load types defined by the main grid based on the load classification management needs during the supply guarantee period. n The sequence number of the load type; P n ( h )and P i,n ( h ) are respectively h Main power grid and regional power grid i The n Power of similar loads; h The level of supply at all times is s h , λ n ( s h ) is the first under this supply guarantee level n The weighting coefficients of the class load, and satisfying: 。 4. The power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The optimization model specifically includes: In the above formula, Let be the objective function. , , The variables are: peak-shifting power, peak-avoidance power, and power-curtailment power, respectively. , These are the allowable peak-shifting capacity and the allowable peak-avoidance capacity, respectively. For regional power grid i exist h Peak shaving capacity at any given moment; γ s , γ a , γ r These are the peak-shifting penalty coefficient, peak-avoidance penalty coefficient, and power rationing penalty coefficient, respectively. Solving the optimization model, when the objective function value is minimized, yields a basic power supply guarantee scheme that includes peak shifting, peak avoidance, and power rationing.

5. A power supply guarantee device based on load coordinated regulation, characterized in that, include: The data collection module is used to obtain the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity; The decomposition module is used to generate the regional power grid load regulation capacity based on the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity. A module is used to formulate a basic power supply guarantee plan based on the regional power grid load regulation capacity. The module is used to construct intraday time-series correlation scenarios, perform risk prediction on basic power supply guarantee plans, and obtain risk indicators. The verification module is used to verify the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators; If the verification fails, the basic power supply guarantee plan is revised based on the risk indicators to obtain the revised power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan. The final basic plan for ensuring power supply is obtained through verification. The steps for formulating a basic power supply guarantee plan based on the regional power grid load regulation capacity include: Obtain the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, calculate the price elasticity capacity based on the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, and use the price elasticity capacity as the peak shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy; By comparing the regional load capacity and peak shaving capacity, the time periods when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity are determined. An optimization model is constructed for periods when the load regulation capacity of the region is insufficient to cover the entire area, and an optimization strategy is determined. The optimization model includes an objective function that minimizes the sum of peak-shifting power, peak-avoidance power, and power-limiting power, as well as the corresponding constraints. Based on the optimization strategy and constraints, the objective function is solved to obtain the basic scheme for power supply security. The steps for constructing intraday time-series correlation scenarios to predict risks in basic power supply security plans and obtain risk indicators include: A daily time-series correlation scenario is constructed to obtain short-time-series random samples, and short-term operational risk indicators are calculated. These risk indicators include the probability of daily load outage and the expected daily load loss. The calculation formulas are as follows: In the above formula, L OLP Indicates the probability of load outages during the day. M This represents the total number of samples in intraday time-series correlation scenarios. For the first m The number of power outage hours included in the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples; E ELO This indicates the expected power loss during the day. It is the first m The first of the intraday time-series correlation scenario samples h The probability of a 24-hour load outage; The steps for verifying the basic power supply guarantee plan based on risk indicators include: Plot the ICER curves for intraday load outage probability and intraday expected load loss, and determine the risk threshold using the curves. ε ILOLP , ε IEELO If the basic power supply guarantee scheme meets the following formula, then when the scheme passes the verification, the basic power supply guarantee scheme will be output: If the basic power supply guarantee plan fails to pass verification, the load regulation capacity of the main power grid shall be increased according to the ICER curve. P R ( h The above formula is satisfied until the power supply guarantee modified scheme is obtained as the final basic power supply guarantee scheme.

6. An electronic device, characterized in that, It includes a processor and a memory, the processor being used to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated control as described in any one of claims 1 to 4.

7. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores at least one instruction, which, when executed by a processor, implements the power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated control as described in any one of claims 1 to 4.

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