A method for dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation of water and mud inrush

Abstract

The application relates to the technical field of tunnels and underground engineering, and discloses a water and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation method. The method comprises the following steps: determining the water and mud inrush disaster type and corresponding risk disaster factors of each paragraph in a tunnel; establishing a risk assessment index system of each water and mud inrush disaster type; respectively establishing a preliminary risk assessment model, a secondary risk assessment model and a dynamic risk assessment model according to a variable weight strategy, a constant weight vector and the risk assessment index system; sequentially assessing the tunnel by using the preliminary risk assessment model and the secondary risk assessment model, taking active risk regulation measures, dynamically assessing each paragraph after regulation by using the dynamic risk assessment model, and obtaining a dynamic risk assessment grade. The application improves the risk assessment accuracy and risk regulation effectiveness of water and mud inrush disasters in tunnel construction through dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation measures, and provides strong support for safe and efficient construction of tunnel engineering.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of tunnel and underground engineering, and particularly relates to a water and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation method. BACKGROUND

[0002] The southwest plateau region is one of the regions with the most intense crustal deformation and tectonic activity in the world, with significant topographic relief, active plate movement, and dense distribution of deep faults. In addition, the region is prone to mountain disasters, and the geological environment is extremely complex, posing a serious challenge to engineering construction. During construction, high water pressure, high temperature hot water, high ground stress and other high-energy environments are often encountered, and the risk of water and mud inrush disasters is extremely high, posing a major safety threat to tunnel excavation construction. These problems are not only rare in China, but also a difficult problem in the field of international engineering construction. High-temperature gushing water and mud inrush disasters have occurred many times during construction, becoming a "neck" problem in engineering construction.

[0003] The disaster mechanism of water and mud inrush under high-energy environment is extremely complex, and the selection of control measures and construction decisions relying on experience guidance has uncertainty, and its disaster prevention and control will face more severe challenges. SUMMARY

[0004] In a first aspect, the present application provides a water and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation method, the method comprising:

[0005] determining the type of water and mud inrush disaster in each paragraph of the tunnel, identifying the risk sources of each water and mud inrush disaster type based on the Delphi method and the preliminary hazard analysis method, and determining the risk disaster factors of each water and mud inrush disaster type;

[0006] According to the risk disaster factors of each water and mud inrush disaster type, a risk assessment index system for each water and mud inrush disaster type is established;

[0007] designing a variable weight strategy, obtaining a constant weight vector, constructing a state variable weight vector function according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector, and establishing a preliminary risk assessment model, a secondary risk assessment model and a dynamic risk assessment model according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system;

[0008] using the preliminary risk assessment model to preliminarily assess the water and mud inrush risk of each paragraph in the tunnel, obtaining a preliminary risk assessment level, and if the preliminary risk assessment level is higher than a first preset level, using the secondary risk assessment model to secondarily assess the water and mud inrush risk of the corresponding paragraph in the tunnel, and obtaining a secondary risk assessment level;

[0009] If the secondary risk assessment level is higher than a second preset level, an active risk control measure is taken, and a dynamic risk assessment model is used to dynamically assess the water and mud inrush risk of the corresponding section in the tunnel after the control, to obtain a dynamic risk assessment level.

[0010] In optional embodiments, the water and mud inrush disaster types include at least one of a fault structure composite type, a joint fissure type, a weathering alteration type, and a dissolution fissure type, the risk disaster factors include at least one of a disaster environment, a risk factor, and risk control and dynamic feedback information, the disaster environment of the fault structure composite type includes at least one of a fault width, a fault property, a stratum lithology, underground water, a fault cementation degree, a joint fissure, and a topography and geomorphology, the disaster environment of the joint fissure type includes at least one of an adverse geological structure, underground water, a stratum lithology, a joint fissure development degree, a topography and geomorphology, and a predicted water gushing amount, the disaster environment of the weathering alteration type includes at least one of an adverse geological structure, underground water, a weathering alteration degree, a joint fissure, a topography and geomorphology, a predicted water gushing amount, and a surrounding rock grade, the disaster environment of the dissolution fissure type includes at least one of a fault disaster causing degree, underground water, a rock stratum occurrence, a stratum lithology, a topography and geomorphology, a soluble rock and non-soluble rock contact zone, a layer and interlayer fissure, and a surrounding rock grade, the risk factor of the fault structure composite type, the joint fissure type, the weathering alteration type, and the dissolution fissure type all include at least one of an excavation method, a water pumping and drainage scheme, a support scheme, an advanced geological prediction, and a monitoring measurement, and the risk control and dynamic feedback information of the fault structure composite type, the joint fissure type, the weathering alteration type, and the dissolution fissure type all include at least one of macroscopic geological precursor information and microscopic monitoring measurement precursor information.

[0011] In optional embodiments, the constructing of the state variable weight vector function according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector includes:

[0012] dividing the variable interval into a weak punishment interval, a non-punishment and non-encouragement interval, a weak encouragement interval, and a strong encouragement interval;

[0013] obtaining a first preset parameter and a second preset parameter, wherein the first preset parameter is an adjustment amplitude of strong encouragement relative to weak encouragement, and the second preset parameter is an adjustment amplitude of weak encouragement relative to weak punishment;

[0014] calculating a weight adjustment parameter according to the first preset parameter and the second preset parameter, constructing a state variable weight vector according to the weight adjustment parameter, and constructing the state variable weight vector function according to the state variable weight vector and the constant weight vector.

[0015] In optional embodiments, the establishing of the preliminary risk assessment model according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system includes:

[0016] According to the risk assessment index system, a first risk disaster factor corresponding to a water and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel and a corresponding quantitative score result are determined, wherein the first risk disaster factor includes the disaster environment;

[0017] A first preset constant weight vector of the first risk disaster factor corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel is obtained, and a first preset state variable weight vector corresponding to the quantitative score result of the first risk disaster factor is determined according to the quantitative score result of the first risk disaster factor. A preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel is constructed according to the first preset state variable weight vector and the first preset constant weight vector.

[0018] The preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantitative score result and summed up to obtain the preliminary risk assessment model.

[0019] In an optional implementation, the secondary risk assessment model is established according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system, including:

[0020] According to the risk assessment index system, a second risk disaster factor corresponding to a water and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel and a corresponding quantitative score result are determined, wherein the second risk disaster factor includes the disaster environment and the risk factor;

[0021] A second preset constant weight vector of the second risk disaster factor corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel is obtained, and a second preset state variable weight vector corresponding to the quantitative score result of the second risk disaster factor is determined according to the quantitative score result of the second risk disaster factor. A secondary state variable weight vector function of the second risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel is constructed according to the second preset state variable weight vector and the second preset constant weight vector.

[0022] The secondary state variable weight vector function of the second risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantitative score result and summed up to obtain the secondary risk assessment model.

[0023] In an optional implementation, the dynamic risk assessment model is established according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system, including:

[0024] According to the risk assessment index system, a third risk disaster factor corresponding to a water and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel and a corresponding quantitative score result are determined, wherein the third risk disaster factor includes the disaster environment, the risk factor and the risk control and dynamic feedback information;

[0025] obtaining a third preset constant weight vector of a third risk disaster factor corresponding to the type of water inrush and mud inrush disaster of each section in the tunnel, and determining a third preset state variable weight vector corresponding to a quantitative score result of the third risk disaster factor according to the third risk disaster factor, and constructing a dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel according to the third preset state variable weight vector and the third preset constant weight vector;

[0026] multiplying the dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster factor of each section in the tunnel by the corresponding quantitative score result respectively and summing up to obtain the dynamic risk assessment model.

[0027] In an optional implementation, the taking of the active risk control measure comprises:

[0028] obtaining the advanced geological forecast, the advanced geological forecast information comprising at least one of a position, a scale, a material composition, a water quantity and a water pressure of each section in the tunnel where the type of water inrush and mud inrush disaster exists;

[0029] when the advanced geological forecast shows that there is an abnormal body behind the tunnel face, a first control notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel, the first control notification comprising taking a construction method adjustment, wherein the abnormal body comprises at least one of a plateau karst, a water-rich fracture, a granite alteration zone and a joint fissure dense zone;

[0030] when the advanced geological forecast shows that the water-rich quantity of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is lower than a first preset water-rich quantity threshold, a second control notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel, the second control notification comprising taking a construction method adjustment and an advanced long pipe roof pre-supporting method;

[0031] when the advanced geological forecast shows that the water-rich quantity of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the first preset water-rich quantity threshold and lower than a second preset water-rich quantity threshold, a third control notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel, the third control notification comprising taking a construction method adjustment, an advanced long pipe roof pre-supporting method and an underground water energy release and pressure reduction method;

[0032] when the advanced geological forecast shows that the water-rich quantity of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the second preset water-rich quantity threshold, a fourth control notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel, the fourth control notification comprising taking a construction method adjustment, an advanced long pipe roof pre-supporting method, an underground water energy release and pressure reduction method and a grouting reinforcement method.

[0033] In an optional embodiment, after the dynamic risk assessment model is used to dynamically assess the water inrush and mud inrush risk after regulation, and a dynamic risk assessment level is obtained, the method further comprises:

[0034] determining whether the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than a third preset level;

[0035] If the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than the third preset level, a regulation scheme change notification is generated, the regulation scheme change notification is sent to the relevant personnel, and the dynamic risk assessment model is used to dynamically assess the water inrush and mud inrush risk again after re-regulation until the dynamic risk assessment is lower than or equal to the third preset level.

[0036] Embodiments of the present application have the following advantages:

[0037] The water inrush and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation method provided by the embodiments of the present application significantly improves the risk assessment accuracy and risk regulation effectiveness of water inrush and mud inrush disasters in tunnel construction, and provides a strong guarantee for the safe and efficient construction of tunnel projects.

[0038] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present application more obvious and easy to understand, the following preferred embodiments are described in detail below, and the accompanying drawings are described as follows. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0039] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the following will briefly introduce the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments. It should be understood that the following drawings only show some embodiments of the present application, and therefore should not be regarded as a limitation on the scope. For those skilled in the art, other related drawings can also be obtained without creative labor. In each drawing, similar components are denoted by similar reference numerals.

[0040] Figure 1 A flowchart of a water inrush and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation method provided by an embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0041] Figure 2 A technical system flowchart of an active risk regulation measure provided by an embodiment of the present application is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0042] The embodiments of the present application will be described in detail below, and examples of the embodiments are shown in the drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals represent the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below by referring to the drawings are exemplary and are only used to explain the present application, and cannot be understood as a limitation on the present application.

[0043] The terms "first", "second", "third", etc. are used only for descriptive purposes and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or an ordered ranking of the indicated technical features. Thus, features defined with "first", "second" or "third" can include one or more of such features explicitly or implicitly. In the description of the application, the meaning of "a plurality" is two or more, unless explicitly specified otherwise.

[0044] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs. The terminology used in the description of the template herein is used only for the purpose of describing particular embodiments and is not intended to be limiting of the present application. As used herein, the term "and / or" includes any and all combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

[0045] Embodiment 1

[0046] As Figure 1 shown, a flow chart of a water and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control method in the embodiments of the present application, the water and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active control method provided by the embodiments of the present application includes the following steps:

[0047] Step S110, determine the water and mud inrush disaster type of each paragraph in the tunnel, identify the risk sources of each water and mud inrush disaster type based on the Delphi method and the pre-hazard analysis method, and determine the risk disaster factors of each water and mud inrush disaster type.

[0048] Understandably, the southwest region is one of the most intense regions of global crustal deformation and tectonic activity, with a huge terrain fluctuation, significant plate movement, and dense distribution of deep faults, while mountain disasters occur frequently, and the geological environment is extremely harsh. In this embodiment, for the high-temperature water and mud inrush disasters that have occurred in the southwest region, the disaster characteristics are analyzed:

[0049] (1) At uneven parts of the crustal movement, a plurality of regional active fault zones are developed, these fault zones have complex tectonic evolution and significant activity. Each regional fault zone is composed of a plurality of small faults of different sizes, and these active faults have different degrees of influence on the safety of the southwest region. In addition, fault activity can also trigger water and mud inrush disasters, thereby seriously threatening construction safety and affecting project progress;

[0050] (2) The currently excavated tunnels in the southwest region have high-temperature and high-pressure water, and some tunnels are prone to high-temperature and high-pressure water and mud inrush disasters during construction;

[0051] (3) The overall plateau karst environment in the southwest region is not conducive to the development of karst. The high-energy environment of plateau karst is not strongly disaster-prone, and the development is generally medium or weak. Because the plateau geological environment is complex, the terrain and climate are variable, the climate is dry and cold, which is not conducive to the formation of karst landforms. The low-temperature environment at high altitude and the large temperature difference are also important reasons for the special development of plateau karst;

[0052] (4) The highly undulating topography and extremely sensitive climate and weather in the southwest region have large relief, deep river cutting, forming large and strongly developed soft alteration zone, differential weathering zone and joint fissure development intensive zone, as well as development of concealed joint intensive zone, alternating alteration zone, weathering zone, etc., leading to the "collapse-induced sudden" mode of large sudden mud gushing.

[0053] Through the above-mentioned research on the identification of major water and mud inrush disasters, it is determined that deep faults, high temperature and high pressure water, plateau karst, joint fissure zone and differential weathering and alteration rock zone are the main high-energy environmental factors affecting water and mud inrush disasters. Therefore, four types of water and mud inrush disasters are summarized: fault structure composite type, joint fissure type, weathering alteration type and dissolution fissure type.

[0054] Further, based on the Delphi method and the pre-risk analysis method, the risk disaster factors of the four types of water and mud inrush disasters, fault structure composite type, joint fissure type, weathering alteration type and dissolution fissure type, are determined, mainly including:

[0055] (1) Disaster-pregnant environment: the favorable conditions formed by water inrush disasters in time and space, including favorable strata for water development, and rich in easily eroded, easily dissolved and mobile groundwater;

[0056] 2) External interference factors: construction, blasting, vibration or other human activities that cause the original balance to be destroyed. Such factors can be summarized as risk factors, risk control and dynamic feedback information.

[0057] Understandably, the disaster-pregnant environmental factors are the material basis and risk-pregnant conditions of water and mud inrush disaster risk, and also the main control factors of water and mud inrush disasters. Construction technology factors are the inducing factors of risk. For advanced geological prediction, monitoring and measurement, excavation support, reasonable organization of scheme, personnel, equipment and management will significantly reduce the risk level. At the same time, according to the tunnel excavation exposure, advanced geological prediction and monitoring and measurement dynamic feedback information, the karst hydrogeological and engineering geological conditions are corrected, and the dynamic assessment of tunnel water and mud inrush risk in the construction process is realized. Therefore, the risk disaster factors of the above four types of water and mud inrush disasters are shown in Table 1.

[0058] Table 1 Risk disaster factors of different water and mud inrush disaster types

[0059]

[0060] It should be noted that the above several water inrush and mud inrush disaster types and their corresponding risk factors can be flexibly adjusted in actual application process according to specific situation and actual demand, including but not limited to appropriate increase or decrease or modification, and should not be limited to the scope of the several disaster types and factors mentioned in the embodiment, and the embodiment does not limit this.

[0061] The above method identifies the water inrush and mud inrush disaster types in the complex geological environment in the southwest region by the Delphi method and the preliminary hazard analysis method, classifies the risk factors according to the three stages of investigation, construction and dynamic feedback, clearly defines the evaluation focus of different stages, ensures the comprehensiveness of the risk factor coverage, lays a foundation for the multi-stage dynamic evaluation model construction, and ensures that the design optimization before construction and the real-time regulation and control during construction have basis.

[0062] Step S120, according to the risk disaster factors of each water inrush and mud inrush disaster type, a risk assessment index system of each water inrush and mud inrush disaster type is established.

[0063] In the multi-stage evaluation of water inrush and mud inrush risk, combined with the characteristics of water inrush and mud inrush disasters in tunnel construction, the risk index system is divided into three categories: hydrogeological and engineering geological conditions, construction factors and dynamic real-time feedback information. The risk evaluation index system and the corresponding quantitative scoring assignment are shown in Tables 2, 3 and 4. Subsequently, the whole project of tunnel investigation, design and construction can be dynamically evaluated in multiple stages based on this.

[0064] Table 2 Risk evaluation index system of joint fissure type and dissolution fissure type tunnel

[0065]

[0066] Table 3 Risk evaluation index system of weathering alteration type tunnel

[0067]

[0068] Table 4 Risk evaluation index system of fault structure composite type tunnel

[0069]

[0070] The above method refines the risk disaster factors of each water inrush and mud inrush disaster type into quantifiable indexes, and realizes standardized assignment through multi-level scoring standards (0~1), solves the problem of traditional qualitative evaluation ambiguity, improves the comparability and operability of the evaluation results, and provides a scientific basis for subsequent risk evaluation.

[0071] Step S130, a variable weight strategy is designed, a constant weight vector is obtained, a state variable weight vector function is constructed according to the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector, and a preliminary risk assessment model, a secondary risk assessment model and a dynamic risk assessment model are respectively established according to the state variable weight vector function and in combination with the risk assessment index system.

[0072] It should be noted that, according to the variable weight theory and in combination with the characteristics of water and mud inrush risk assessment, when a few risk index values are very large and their weights are very small, the calculated risk level tends to be safe. Therefore, in this embodiment, according to the strong incentive and weak punishment variable weight idea, the variable weight strategy is designed as follows:

[0073] (1) Strong incentive strategy: for the indexes in dangerous state (with larger score value), the weight is increased for incentive type variable weight, and the risk level is increased, and the risk consequence level is more serious;

[0074] (2) Weak punishment strategy: for the indexes in safe state (with smaller score value), the weight is reduced to avoid the restriction and influence on the risk assessment consequence caused by the increase of the weight;

[0075] (3) No punishment and no incentive strategy: for the indexes in the intermediate state (with score value at the average level), no punishment and no incentive are performed, and the influence on the risk level is not increased or reduced.

[0076] Specifically, first, the variable interval of the state variable weight vector is divided into a weak punishment interval, a no punishment and no incentive interval, a weak incentive interval and a strong incentive interval, which correspond to the division of four risk levels, i.e.:

[0077] According to the strong punishment, weak punishment, no punishment-no incentive, strong incentive and weak incentive modes of the punishment-incentive state, when constructing the state variable weight vector, according to the specific punishment-incentive state requirements, the corresponding piecewise function is established. For the weak punishment-strong incentive variable weight selection of this embodiment, the following state variable weight vector is established:

[0078] In order to determine the state variable weight vector as above , the specific parameter values of the function are first determined according to . By default, when , the first preset parameter is 0, and the second preset parameter is 1. At the same time, if the state variable weight vector function is in the form of a piecewise local variable weight function, the actual application is often based on the degree of weight change, so the first preset parameter representing the adjustment amplitude of weak incentive relative to strong incentive, and the second preset parameter representing the adjustment amplitude of weak punishment relative to weak incentive are proposed.

[0079] the derivative of the state variable weight vector reflects the degree of weight change, therefore the slope between the endpoints is used to simplify the determination of the first preset parameter and the second preset parameter , so as to obtain the following relationship:

[0080] wherein, , , , is the weight adjustment parameter, represents the minimum value of the equilibrium function when there is no punishment and no incentive, , , is the variable weight interval threshold.

[0081] It should be noted that in actual applications, the values of the weight adjustment parameter , the first preset parameter , the second preset parameter , and the variable weight interval threshold , , can be set, the value of the weight adjustment parameter , , is determined according to the above relationship, and then the specific state variable weight vector is determined. For example, the weight adjustment parameter is 0.3, the first preset parameter is 0.5, which represents that the weak incentive adjustment amplitude is 0.5 times the strong incentive adjustment amplitude, i.e., the strong incentive adjustment amplitude is 2 times the weak incentive adjustment amplitude, the second preset parameter is 0.667, which represents that the weak punishment amplitude is 0.667 times the weak incentive amplitude, i.e., the weak incentive amplitude is 1.5 times the weak punishment amplitude, and the variable weight interval threshold , , are respectively 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8, the weight adjustment parameter , , is determined according to the above relationship, and the weight adjustment parameter , ,

[0082] is respectively 2.22, 3.33, and 1.682, so the state variable weight vector at this time is: In the risk assessment of water and mud inrush, different risk factors have different influences on the occurrence of disasters. The design of the variable weight strategy in the above method is based on the idea of strong incentive and weak punishment variable weight. By dynamically adjusting the weight through piecewise function, for example, using exponential strong incentive for high-risk indicators to significantly amplify their weights, avoiding misjudgment of low-weight high-risk indicators, and adjusting the weights of indicators for different risk states, the actual influence of each risk indicator on water and mud inrush disasters can be more accurately reflected, the risk can be finely graded, and the risk misjudgment caused by traditional fixed weight method can be effectively avoided.

[0083] Further, for any constant weight vector , there is a state variable weight vector function :

[0084] According to the quantitative scoring results of each corresponding indicator, the multi-stage variable weight-indicator system method model is established as:

[0085] Firstly, through detailed analysis of geological conditions, groundwater conditions and historical data, potential water and mud inrush risks are identified and assessed. The preliminary risk assessment of water and mud inrush only needs to consider the disaster environment. The first preset constant weight vector of the first risk disaster factor (i.e. disaster environment) corresponding to the type of water and mud inrush disaster in each section of the tunnel is obtained, and the corresponding variable interval is determined according to the quantitative scoring results of each first risk disaster factor, and then the corresponding first preset state variable weight vector is determined. The first preset state variable weight vector and the first preset constant weight vector are substituted into the expression of the state variable weight vector function, thereby constructing the preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk disaster factor in each section of the tunnel. Then, the preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk disaster factor in each section of the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantitative scoring results and summed up to obtain the preliminary risk assessment model.

[0086] For example, if the type of water and mud inrush disaster in a section is weathering alteration, the corresponding disaster environment includes: unfavorable geological structure, groundwater, predicted water inflow, weathering alteration degree, topography, joint fissure and surrounding rock grade, and the corresponding quantitative scoring results are [0.9, 0.75, 0.85, 0.75, 0.8, 0.75, 0.85]. The first preset constant weight vector is [0.3204, 0.1754, 0.1835, 0.1665, 0.0414, 0.0528, 0.0601], and the corresponding first preset state variable weight vector is substituted into the expression of the state variable weight vector function to obtain the preliminary state variable weight vector function [0.3904, 0.1380, 0.1963, 0.1310, 0.0385, 0.0415, 0.0643]. The preliminary risk assessment model of water and mud inrush of the complex geological tunnel of weathering alteration type is simplified as follows because there are seven independent variables:

[0087] In the formula, represents the quantified score result of each first risk disaster-causing factor corresponding to the risk assessment index system, and the specific value can be calculated as .

[0088] Secondly, the secondary assessment of water and mud inrush is before construction, and the purpose is to evaluate the rationality of construction organization design. In this stage, in addition to considering the risk environment in the early stage of investigation, the risk factors of construction factors are additionally considered to more accurately predict the potential risks that may occur during construction. The second preset constant weight vector of the second risk disaster-causing factor (i.e. the disaster environment and the risk factor) corresponding to the type of water and mud inrush in each paragraph of the tunnel is obtained, and the variable interval corresponding to each second risk disaster-causing factor is determined according to the quantified score result, and then the corresponding second preset state variable weight vector is determined. The second preset state variable weight vector and the second preset constant weight vector are substituted into the expression of the state variable weight vector function, thereby constructing the secondary state variable weight vector function of the second risk disaster-causing factor in each paragraph of the tunnel. Then the secondary state variable weight vector function of the second risk disaster-causing factor in each paragraph of the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantified score result and summed to obtain the secondary risk assessment model.

[0089] For example, if the type of water and mud inrush in a paragraph is weathering alteration type, the corresponding disaster environment and risk factor are: adverse geological structure, groundwater, predicted water inflow, weathering alteration degree, topography, joint fissure, surrounding rock grade, excavation method, water pumping and drainage scheme, support scheme, advanced geological prediction and monitoring measurement, and the corresponding quantified score result is [0.9, 0.75, 0.85, 0.75, 0.8, 0.75, 0.85, 0.2, 0.4, 0.65, 0.4, 0.5]. The second preset constant weight vector [0.2136, 0.1169, 0.1223, 0.1110, 0.0276, 0.0352, 0.0401, 0.1614, 0.0822, 0.0431, 0.0183, 0.0284], and the corresponding second preset state variable weight vector is substituted into the expression of the state variable weight vector function to obtain the secondary state variable weight vector function [0.3125, 0.1104, 0.1571, 0.1048, 0.0308, 0.0332, 0.0511, 0.0973, 0.0461, 0.0300, 0.0103, 0.0159]. The secondary risk assessment model of water and mud inrush of the weathering alteration type of complex geological tunnel has twelve independent variables, and is simplified as follows:

[0090] In the formula, represents the quantified score result of each second risk disaster-causing factor determined according to the risk assessment index system, and the specific value can be calculated as .

[0091] Finally, the dynamic risk assessment of water and mud inrush is based on the secondary risk assessment model evaluation method, increases the importance analysis of data characteristics in the water and mud inrush disaster case library, and is a comprehensive assessment considering the risk environment, risk factors and risk control and dynamic feedback information. The third preset constant weight vector of the third risk disaster-causing factor (i.e. the disaster environment, risk factors and risk control and dynamic feedback information) corresponding to the water and mud inrush disaster type of each paragraph in the tunnel is obtained, and the variable interval of each third risk disaster-causing factor is determined according to the quantified score result, and then the third preset state variable weight vector is determined. The third preset state variable weight vector and the third preset constant weight vector are substituted into the expression of the state variable weight vector function, so as to construct the dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster-causing factor of each paragraph in the tunnel. Then the dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk disaster-causing factor of each paragraph in the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantified score result and summed to obtain the dynamic risk assessment model.

[0092] For example, if the water and mud inrush disaster type of a paragraph is the weathering alteration type, the corresponding disaster environment, risk factors and risk control and dynamic feedback information are: adverse geological structure, groundwater, predicted water inflow, weathering alteration degree, topography, joint fissure, surrounding rock grade, excavation method, water pumping and drainage scheme, support scheme, advanced geological prediction, monitoring and measurement, macroscopic geological precursor information and microscopic monitoring and measurement precursor information, and the corresponding quantified score result is [0.9, 0.75, 0.85, 0.75, 0.8, 0.75, 0.85, 0.2, 0.4, 0.65, 0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 0.6], and the third preset constant weight vector is [0.1865, 0.1021, 0.1068, 0.0969, 0.0241, 0.0307, 0.0350, 0.1496, 0.0762, 0.0400, 0.0263, 0.0170, 0.0730, 0.0365], and the corresponding third preset state variable weight vector is substituted into the expression of the state variable weight vector function to obtain a dynamic state variable weight vector function [0.2762, 0.0976, 0.1389, 0.0926, 0.0272, 0.0294, 0.0455, 0.0913, 0.0432, 0.0282, 0.0149, 0.0096, 0.0824, 0.0228]. The dynamic risk assessment model of water and mud inrush of the complex geological tunnel of weathering alteration type is simplified as follows because there are fourteen independent variables:

[0093] In the formula, indicates the quantified score result corresponding to each third risk disaster-causing factor according to the risk assessment index system, and the specific value can be calculated as .

[0094] In the above method, the state variable weight vector function divides the quantified scores of the indexes into different intervals, and each interval corresponds to a different variable weight strategy. This segmented function makes the weight adjustment more flexible and can respond differently to different risk levels. By combining multi-stage assessment (primary assessment, secondary assessment and dynamic assessment) and applying the state variable weight vector function in each stage to dynamically adjust the weight according to the actual state of the risk index, the model can adapt to changes in the risk situation and avoid evaluation bias caused by fixed weights, thereby improving the reliability of the evaluation. The construction of the preliminary risk assessment model only considers the disaster-pregnant environment, which can quickly identify high-risk sections and provide pre-warning for construction planning. The construction of the secondary risk assessment model not only considers the disaster-pregnant environment, but also includes risk factors, which can effectively evaluate the rationality of the construction plan and optimize the support measures. The dynamic risk assessment model integrates risk control and dynamic feedback information in addition to the disaster-pregnant environment and risk factors, which realizes real-time correction of risks during construction and ensures the accuracy of the control measures. By establishing three levels of risk assessment models, the water and mud inrush risks of each section in the tunnel can be accurately located, and the risk assessment process from preliminary to in-depth and from static to dynamic is realized, which improves the comprehensiveness and accuracy of risk assessment.

[0095] Step S140, the water inrush and mud inrush risk of each paragraph in the tunnel is preliminarily evaluated by using the preliminary risk assessment model, and a preliminary risk assessment level is obtained, if the preliminary risk assessment level is higher than a first preset level, the water inrush and mud inrush risk of the corresponding paragraph in the tunnel is secondarily evaluated by using the secondary risk assessment model, and a secondary risk assessment level is obtained.

[0096] It should be noted that the water inrush and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment method of the present application is a risk assessment method combining multiple factors and adapting to dynamic environmental changes. The core includes multi-stage evaluation (preliminary evaluation and secondary evaluation before construction, and dynamic evaluation in the construction stage). And in each stage, the state variable weight vector function is applied to dynamically adjust the weight to adapt to the change of risk situation and improve the reliability of the evaluation.

[0097] Understandably, first, the water inrush and mud inrush risk of each paragraph in the tunnel is preliminarily evaluated by using the preliminary risk assessment model, and a preliminary risk assessment score is obtained, and the preliminary risk assessment level is determined according to the preset level division rule. Exemplarily, in the present embodiment, the preset level division rule is shown in Table 5 as follows:

[0098] Table 5 Water inrush and mud inrush preset level division rule table

[0099]

[0100] In the above table, the specific meaning of each level is shown in Table 6 as follows:

[0101] Table 6 Risk level division meaning table

[0102]

[0103] Exemplarily, the preliminary risk assessment score calculated in step S130 according to the preliminary risk assessment model According to the above Table 5 and Table 6, the preliminary risk assessment level belongs to level IV, there is a probability of occurrence of large-scale inrush / larger water inrush and mud inrush disaster, the water inrush amount is about 1000m 3 / h~10000m 3 / h, the instantaneous water inrush amount is about 1~2.5m 3 / s, and the mud inrush amount is ≥500m 3 .

[0104] At this stage, although the risk identification and assessment is only a preliminary assessment of water inrush and mud inrush risk, it has important guiding significance for the implementation and construction of the next step. If the preliminary risk assessment level is higher than the first preset level (for example, level III), further secondary risk assessment model is used to carry out secondary assessment of water inrush and mud inrush risk of each paragraph in the tunnel, and the secondary risk assessment score is obtained, and the secondary risk assessment level is determined according to the preset level division rule.

[0105] The preliminary assessment in the above method quickly locks the high-risk area through the disaster-pregnant environment index, reduces the calculation amount of comprehensive assessment, and shortens the decision response time. Compared with the preliminary assessment, the secondary assessment is more comprehensive and in-depth, which verifies the rationality of the design combined with the construction factors and finds the potential risks. Through the secondary assessment, the supporting measures can be further refined and optimized to reduce the possibility of water inrush and mud inrush accidents. At the same time, the secondary assessment result also provides an important basis for subsequent dynamic assessment.

[0106] Step S150, if the secondary risk assessment level is higher than the second preset level, active risk control measures are taken, and the dynamic risk assessment model is used to dynamically assess the water inrush and mud inrush risk of the corresponding paragraph in the tunnel after the adjustment, and the dynamic risk assessment level is obtained.

[0107] Further, if the secondary risk assessment level is higher than the second preset level (for example, level III), active risk control measures should be taken in time to reduce the risk, thereby reducing the difficulty of mud inrush and water inrush disaster treatment and reducing the construction cost.

[0108] Understandably, first, the advanced geological prediction result needs to be obtained, which is used to analyze the damage degree of water inrush and mud inrush disaster to the tunnel, including the position, size, material composition, water quantity, water pressure and other information of each paragraph where the water inrush and mud inrush disaster exists in the tunnel. The specific active risk control measures are as follows:

[0109] (1) In the case of sudden water inrush and mud inrush, the stability of the working face is threatened. The larger the cross section, the worse the stability. Therefore, according to the severity of the advanced geological prediction, the construction method needs to be converted: the full-face construction is adjusted to bench method to improve the stability of the working face. As follows Figure 2As shown, when the advanced geological prediction shows that there is an abnormal body behind the tunnel face, in order to ensure stability and controllability of construction, a first control notice is generated and sent to relevant personnel, and the first control notice includes taking construction method adjustment. Generally, the safety distance is set to 3 to 5 meters. The method adjustment must be completed in advance, and the adverse geological body should not be exposed arbitrarily before the drainage, pre-supporting and grouting are carried out. In order to ensure the normal operation of large machinery, the length of the upper step should be set to 3 to 5 meters, and the length of the middle step is about 10 meters. The mechanical equipment should be placed in the middle step, and the working room should be set in the middle step close to the upper step. Therefore, when the distance from the abnormal body is at least 14 meters, the working room must be reserved and the construction method is converted. During the conversion process, safety monitoring is required to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment;

[0110] (2) As shown in Figure 2 , according to the analysis of the advanced geological prediction result, when the water enrichment of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is lower than the first preset water enrichment threshold, the energy contained in the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is low, the construction scale is small, and the prevention and control difficulty is low. A second control notice should be generated and sent to relevant personnel, and the second control notice includes taking construction method adjustment and advanced long pipe shed pre-supporting method;

[0111] (3) As shown in Figure 2 , according to the analysis of the advanced geological prediction result, when the water enrichment of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is higher than the first preset water enrichment threshold and lower than the second preset water enrichment threshold, the energy contained in the abnormal body behind the tunnel face is high, the construction scale is large, and the prevention and control difficulty is high. In order to effectively deal with this situation, a fifth control notice should be generated and sent to relevant personnel, and the fifth control notice includes taking construction method adjustment, advanced long pipe shed pre-supporting method and underground water energy release and pressure reduction method (such as setting drainage holes in the abnormal body area in front of the tunnel face, or adding global drainage measures in the abnormal body area behind the tunnel face and the working room), and timely draining the underground water of the abnormal body in front of the tunnel face. Through this comprehensive method, the water of the abnormal body behind the tunnel face can be drained in time, the energy conversion in the water-rich stratum is reduced, the treatment difficulty is reduced, which is conducive to ensuring the stability of the tunnel face during excavation, and thus ensuring the safety of construction. The second preset water enrichment threshold is greater than or equal to the first preset water enrichment threshold;

[0112] (4) As shown in Figure 2As shown, according to the analysis of the advanced geological prediction results, when the water enrichment of the abnormal body behind the working face is higher than the second preset water enrichment threshold, the energy contained in the abnormal body behind the working face is high, the construction scale is large, and the prevention and control difficulty is extremely high. If not handled properly, it is easy to cause complex problems such as debris flow and mud flow. In order to effectively prevent and control the sudden mud and water gushing, a fourth control notice needs to be generated and sent to relevant personnel, and the fourth control notice includes four-in-one measures such as construction method adjustment, advanced long pipe shed pre-supporting method, underground water energy release and pressure reduction method, and grouting reinforcement method (for example, surrounding rock mechanical property repair through advanced high-pressure grouting). This method not only can effectively prevent and control the occurrence of sudden mud and water gushing, but also has a significant effect on the safety and stability of the tunnel.

[0113] After the above dynamic risk control measures are taken, dynamic risk assessment model is used for dynamic assessment to obtain a dynamic risk assessment level.

[0114] The above method can timely identify and reduce the risk of water and mud inrush in tunnel construction through dynamic risk assessment and active risk control measures, and realizes the grading management and precise control of risks. Especially in areas with complex geological conditions and high risks, by taking preventive measures such as construction method conversion, advanced support and underground water treatment in advance, the stability of the working face can be significantly improved, and the occurrence of disasters such as sudden mud and water gushing can be reduced, thereby protecting the life safety of construction personnel and the structural safety of the tunnel, reducing the overall construction cost, and improving the construction efficiency.

[0115] In an optional implementation, after obtaining the dynamic risk assessment level, it is judged whether the result of the dynamic risk assessment is higher than a third preset level (for example, level II): (1) if the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than the third preset level, a control scheme change notice is generated and sent to relevant personnel to make the relevant personnel immediately change the construction scheme, re-take active control measures, and use the dynamic risk assessment model to dynamically assess the water and mud inrush risk again after re-control until the dynamic risk assessment level is lower than or equal to the third preset level; (2) otherwise, if the dynamic risk assessment level is lower than or equal to the third preset level, subsequent dynamic assessment is not needed again.

[0116] The above method can more scientifically guide the adjustment of the construction scheme by judging whether the dynamic risk assessment level is lower than or equal to the third preset level (for example, level II), and the relevant personnel can be immediately notified to change the construction scheme when the dynamic risk assessment level does not meet the preset construction requirements. This flexible response mechanism helps to quickly respond to changes in risks and ensure the smooth progress of the construction process. Through repeated dynamic assessment and adjustment of control measures, the optimal construction scheme can be continuously approached to ensure the stability of the construction quality, which helps to improve the overall structural safety and service life of the tunnel.

[0117] The water inrush and mud inrush dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation method provided by the embodiment of the application, by introducing the dynamic variable weight risk assessment and active regulation method, significantly improves the risk assessment accuracy and risk control effectiveness of the water inrush and mud inrush disaster in the tunnel construction, and provides a strong guarantee for the safe and efficient construction of the tunnel engineering.

[0118] In several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method can also be implemented in other ways. The apparatus embodiments described above are only illustrative, for example, the flowcharts and structural diagrams in the drawings show the possible implementation architecture, function and operation of the apparatus, method and computer program product according to the embodiments of the present application. In this regard, each block in the flowchart or block diagram can represent a module, a program segment or a part of code, which contains one or more executable instructions for implementing the specified logic function. It should also be noted that in alternative implementation ways, the functions marked in the blocks can also occur in different order from that marked in the drawings. For example, two consecutive blocks can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and sometimes they can be executed in reverse order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each block in the structural diagram and / or flowchart, and the combination of blocks in the structural diagram and / or flowchart, can be implemented by a dedicated hardware-based system that performs the specified function or action, or can be implemented by a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0119] In addition, the functional modules or units in each embodiment of the present application can be integrated together to form an independent part, or each module can exist independently, or two or more modules can be integrated to form an independent part.

[0120] If the functions are implemented in the form of software function modules and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solutions of the present application or the part of the present application that essentially contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solutions can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes a plurality of instructions for causing a computer device (which can be a smart phone, a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present application. The aforementioned storage medium includes: a U disk, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and various media that can store program codes.

[0121] The above merely illustrates the specific embodiments of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto, any person skilled in the art can easily think of the changes or replacements within the technical range disclosed by the present application, which should be covered in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic risk assessment and active control of sudden water and sediment inrush, characterized in that, The method includes: The types of water inrush and mud inrush disasters in each section of the tunnel are determined. Based on the Delphi method and the pre-hazard analysis method, the risk sources of each of the water inrush and mud inrush disaster types are identified, and the risk factors of each of the water inrush and mud inrush disaster types are determined. Based on the risk factors of each type of water inrush and mud inrush disaster, establish a risk assessment index system for each type of water inrush and mud inrush disaster; Design a variable weight strategy, obtain a constant weight vector, construct a state variable weight vector function based on the variable weight strategy and the constant weight vector, and establish a preliminary risk assessment model, a secondary risk assessment model and a dynamic risk assessment model based on the state variable weight vector function and the risk assessment index system. The preliminary risk assessment model is used to conduct a preliminary assessment of the risk of water inrush and mud inrush in each section of the tunnel to obtain a preliminary risk assessment level. If the preliminary risk assessment level is higher than the first preset level, the secondary risk assessment model is used to conduct a secondary assessment of the risk of water inrush and mud inrush in the corresponding section of the tunnel to obtain a secondary risk assessment level. If the secondary risk assessment level is higher than the second preset level, then proactive risk control measures are taken, and the dynamic risk assessment model is used to dynamically assess the risk of water inrush and mud inrush in the corresponding section of the tunnel after control, so as to obtain the dynamic risk assessment level. The types of water and mud inrush disasters include at least one of the following: fault-structure composite type, joint and fissure type, weathering and alteration type, and dissolution and fissure type. The risk-causing factors include at least one of the following: disaster-inducing environment, risk factors, and risk control and dynamic feedback information. The disaster-inducing environment for the fault-structure composite type includes at least one of the following: fault width, fault properties, stratum lithology, groundwater, fault cementation degree, joints and fissures, and topography. The disaster-inducing environment for the joint and fissure type includes at least one of the following: adverse geological structure, groundwater, stratum lithology, degree of joint and fissure development, topography, and predicted water inflow. The disaster-inducing environment for the weathering and alteration type includes at least one of the following: adverse geological structure, groundwater, degree of weathering and alteration, joints and fissures, and topography. The disaster-prone environment of the dissolution fissure type includes at least one of the following: fault disaster degree, groundwater, rock stratum occurrence, stratigraphic lithology, topography, contact zone between soluble and insoluble rocks, bedding planes and interlayer fissures, and surrounding rock level. The risk factors of the fault structure complex type, the joint fissure type, the weathering and alteration type, and the dissolution fissure type all include at least one of the following: excavation method, drainage scheme, support scheme, advanced geological forecasting, and monitoring and measurement. The risk control and dynamic feedback information of the fault structure complex type, the joint fissure type, the weathering and alteration type, and the dissolution fissure type all include at least one of the following: macroscopic geological precursor information and microscopic monitoring and measurement precursor information. The aforementioned proactive risk control measures include: Obtain advanced geological forecast information, which includes at least one of the following in the tunnel: location, scale, material composition, water volume, and water pressure of each section where the water inrush and mudslide disaster type exists; When the advanced geological forecast indicates that there is an anomaly behind the tunnel face, a first control notification is generated and sent to relevant personnel. The first control notification includes taking construction method adjustments. The anomaly includes at least one of the following: plateau karst, water-rich fault, granite alteration zone, and dense joint and fissure zone. When the advanced geological forecast shows that the water abundance of the anomaly behind the working face is lower than the first preset water abundance threshold, a second control notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel. The second control notification includes taking measures to adjust the construction method and adopt the advanced long pipe shed pre-support method. When the advanced geological forecast shows that the water abundance of the anomaly behind the working face is higher than the first preset water abundance threshold and lower than the second preset water abundance threshold, a third control notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel. The third control notification includes taking measures such as adjusting the construction method, advanced long pipe shed pre-support method and groundwater energy release and pressure reduction method. When the advanced geological forecast shows that the water abundance of the anomaly behind the working face is higher than the second preset water abundance threshold, a fourth control notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel. The fourth control notification includes taking measures such as adjusting the construction method, advanced long pipe shed pre-support method, groundwater energy release and pressure reduction method, and grouting reinforcement method.

2. The method for dynamic risk assessment and active control of sudden water and sediment inrush as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The step of constructing the state-change vector function based on the change strategy and the constant weight vector includes: The variable interval is divided into a weak penalty interval, a no-penalty and no-incentive interval, a weak incentive interval, and a strong incentive interval; Obtain a first preset parameter and a second preset parameter, wherein the first preset parameter is the adjustment range of strong incentive relative to weak incentive, and the second preset parameter is the adjustment range of weak incentive relative to weak penalty; The adjustment parameters are calculated based on the first preset parameters and the second preset parameters. A state-change vector is constructed based on the adjustment parameters. The state-change vector function is constructed based on the state-change vector and the constant weight vector.

3. The method for dynamic risk assessment and active control of sudden water and sediment inrush as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The step of establishing a preliminary risk assessment model based on the state-variable weighting vector function and the risk assessment index system includes: Based on the risk assessment index system, the first risk causative factor and the corresponding quantitative score result corresponding to the water inrush and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel are determined, wherein the first risk causative factor includes the disaster-prone environment; Obtain the first preset constant weight vector of the first risk hazard factor corresponding to the water inrush and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel, and determine the corresponding first preset state variable weight vector according to the quantitative scoring result of the first risk hazard factor. Based on the first preset state variable weight vector and the first preset constant weight vector, construct the preliminary state variable weight vector function of the first risk hazard factor of each section in the tunnel. The preliminary state-weighted vector function of the first risk hazard factor in each section of the tunnel is multiplied by the corresponding quantitative scoring result and summed to obtain the preliminary risk assessment model.

4. The method for dynamic risk assessment and active control of sudden water and sediment inrush as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The step of establishing a secondary risk assessment model based on the state-variable vector function and the risk assessment index system includes: Based on the risk assessment index system, the second risk causative factor and the corresponding quantitative score result for the water inrush and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel are determined. The second risk causative factor includes the disaster-prone environment and the risk factor. Obtain the second preset constant weight vector of the second risk hazard factor corresponding to the water inrush and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel, and determine the corresponding second preset state variable weight vector according to the quantitative scoring result of the second risk hazard factor. Based on the second preset state variable weight vector and the second preset constant weight vector, construct the quadratic state variable weight vector function of the second risk hazard factor of each section in the tunnel. The secondary risk assessment model is obtained by multiplying the second risk hazard factor of each section of the tunnel by the corresponding quantitative scoring result and summing the results.

5. The method for dynamic risk assessment and active control of sudden water and sediment inrush as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The step of establishing a dynamic risk assessment model based on the state-variable weighting vector function and in conjunction with the risk assessment index system includes: Based on the risk assessment index system, the third risk causative factor and the corresponding quantitative score result for the water inrush and mud inrush disaster types of each section in the tunnel are determined. The third risk causative factor includes the disaster-prone environment, the risk-causing factor, and the risk control and dynamic feedback information. Obtain the third preset constant weight vector of the third risk hazard factor corresponding to the water inrush and mud inrush disaster type of each section in the tunnel, and determine the corresponding third preset state variable weight vector according to the quantitative scoring result of the third risk hazard factor. Based on the third preset state variable weight vector and the third preset constant weight vector, construct the dynamic state variable weight vector function of the third risk hazard factor of each section in the tunnel. The dynamic risk assessment model is obtained by multiplying the dynamic state-weighted vector function of the third risk hazard factor in each section of the tunnel with the corresponding quantitative scoring results and summing them.

6. The method for dynamic risk assessment and active control of sudden water and sediment inrush as described in claim 1, characterized in that, After using the dynamic risk assessment model to dynamically assess the risk of water and mud inrush after regulation, and obtaining the dynamic risk assessment level, the process further includes: Determine whether the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than the third preset level; If the dynamic risk assessment level is higher than the third preset level, a control plan change notification is generated and sent to the relevant personnel. The dynamic risk assessment model is then used to re-evaluate the risk of water inrush and mud inrush after the control is readjusted, until the dynamic risk assessment is lower than or equal to the third preset level.

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