Crude oil inventory management method and device, storage medium and equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses a crude oil inventory management method and device, a storage medium and equipment, and the method comprises the steps: determining a reasonable inventory lower limit value of a crude oil library based on an immovable inventory, a fluctuating inventory and a turnover inventory of the crude oil library; determining a reasonable inventory upper limit value of the crude oil library based on the adjusted inventory and the reasonable inventory lower limit value of the crude oil library; and taking the reasonable inventory lower limit value as a first early warning threshold value, taking the reasonable inventory upper limit value as a second early warning threshold value, comparing the first early warning threshold value and the second early warning threshold value with the crude oil inventory of the crude oil library monitored in real time, and adjusting a production plan based on a comparison result. According to the method, the reasonable inventory range of the crude oil library is determined through the immovable inventory, the fluctuating inventory, the turnover inventory and the adjusting inventory, the crude oil inventory level is monitored in real time, and when the crude oil inventory level approaches or exceeds the reasonable inventory range, early warning feedback is conducted in advance, so that oil fields and refineries can adjust production and processing plans in time according to the early warning situation; therefore, the continuity and stability of daily production and operation of crude oil are improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas storage management, and particularly relates to a management method, device, storage medium and equipment for crude oil inventory. Background Art

[0002] During the operation of crude oil inventory, in order to ensure oilfield production and refinery processing, it is necessary to reserve a certain inventory safety margin to ensure that the oilfield does not shut down wells, the pipeline does not freeze, and the refinery does not shut down in case of emergencies (such as changes in market demand, accidents during transportation, equipment maintenance, etc.). Therefore, it is very necessary to design a reasonable range of crude oil inventory. Summary of the Invention

[0003] In order to improve the continuity and stability of daily crude oil production operation, regulate the crude oil inventory within a reasonable range, and enrich the technical routes and increase the selection space, the embodiments of the present invention provide a management method, device, storage medium and equipment for crude oil inventory.

[0004] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a management method for crude oil inventory, which may include:

[0005] Based on the unavailable inventory, fluctuating inventory and turnover inventory of the crude oil storage, determine the reasonable lower limit value of the inventory of the crude oil storage;

[0006] Based on the adjustment inventory of the crude oil storage and the reasonable lower limit value of the inventory, determine the reasonable upper limit value of the inventory of the crude oil storage;

[0007] Use the reasonable lower limit value of the inventory as the first warning threshold and the reasonable upper limit value of the inventory as the second warning threshold, and compare with the real-time monitored crude oil inventory of the crude oil storage to adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

[0008] Optionally, before determining the reasonable lower limit value and the reasonable upper limit value of the inventory, it may further include: determining the unavailable inventory based on the product of the cross-sectional area of the crude oil storage, the lowest safe liquid level of the crude oil storage and the density of the crude oil in the crude oil storage;

[0009] Determine the fluctuating inventory based on the confidence parameter of the daily crude oil sales volume in the historical month, the standard deviation of the daily crude oil sales volume in the historical month corresponding to the current month, and the number of days in the historical month;

[0010] Determine the turnover inventory based on the average daily crude oil processing volume of the refinery, the number of days of the time interval between crude oil arrivals, and the confidence parameter and standard deviation of the number of days of the time interval between crude oil arrivals; and / or,

[0011] Determine the adjustment inventory based on the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume.

[0012] Optionally, comparing the first warning threshold and the second warning threshold with the crude oil inventory respectively, and adjusting the production plan based on the comparison results may include:

[0013] If the difference between the first warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a first preset value, generate a first-level inventory warning message to adjust the production plan based on the first-level inventory warning message; wherein, the first preset value is greater than or equal to zero;

[0014] If the difference between the second warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a second preset value, generate a second-level inventory warning message to adjust the production plan based on the second-level inventory warning message; wherein, the second preset value is greater than or equal to zero.

[0015] Optionally, the method may further include: determining a third warning threshold based on the maximum inventory capacity of the crude oil tank, the fluctuating inventory, and the turnover inventory, comparing the third warning threshold with the crude oil inventory, and adjusting the production plan based on the comparison results.

[0016] Optionally, comparing the third warning threshold with the crude oil inventory and adjusting the production plan based on the comparison results may include:

[0017] If the difference between the third warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a third preset value, generate a third-level inventory warning message to adjust the production plan based on the third-level inventory warning message; wherein, the third preset value is greater than or equal to zero.

[0018] Optionally, the method may further include: setting a management mode for the crude oil inventory including multiple levels of managers, so that each level of manager is responsible for adjusting the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory in the corresponding area;

[0019] Wherein, if the lower-level manager fails to adjust the crude oil inventory in its responsible area to the preset reasonable inventory range, the lower-level manager will report the inventory warning message to the upper-level manager.

[0020] Optionally, the method may further include: adjusting the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory based on the relationship between the current price of the crude oil and the historical price of the crude oil.

[0021] Optionally, adjusting the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory based on the relationship between the current price of the crude oil and the historical price of the crude oil may include:

[0022] Adjusting the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory based on the relationship between the current price of the crude oil and the moving average line of the crude oil price trend determined by the historical price of the crude oil; and / or,

[0023] Predict the current price trend of crude oil based on the historical price of crude oil, determine the hedging strategy for the crude oil inventory based on the interval where the current price of the crude oil is located and the predicted current price trend of the crude oil, and adjust the production plan based on the hedging strategy.

[0024] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a management device for crude oil inventory, which may include:

[0025] An inventory lower limit value determination module, configured to determine a reasonable inventory lower limit value of the crude oil depot based on the unavailable inventory, fluctuating inventory, and turnover inventory of the crude oil depot;

[0026] An inventory upper limit value determination module, configured to determine a reasonable inventory upper limit value of the crude oil depot based on the adjustment inventory of the crude oil depot and the reasonable inventory lower limit value;

[0027] An adjustment module, configured to use the reasonable inventory lower limit value as a first warning threshold and the reasonable inventory upper limit value as a second warning threshold, compare with the crude oil inventory of the crude oil depot monitored in real time, and adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

[0028] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, it implements the management method for crude oil inventory as described in the first aspect.

[0029] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, and when the processor executes the program, it implements the management method for crude oil inventory as described in the first aspect.

[0030] The beneficial effects of the above technical solutions provided by the embodiments of the present invention at least include:

[0031] The embodiments of the present invention provide a management method, device, storage medium, and equipment for crude oil inventory. This method determines the reasonable inventory range of the crude oil depot through unavailable inventory, fluctuating inventory, turnover inventory, and adjustment inventory, monitors the crude oil inventory level in real time, and gives an early warning feedback when approaching or exceeding the reasonable inventory range, enabling the oilfield and refinery to adjust the production and processing plan in a timely manner according to the warning situation, ensuring that the oil depot inventory is within a reasonable and safe range, and improving the continuity and stability of the daily production operation of crude oil.

[0032] Other features and advantages of the present invention will be described in the subsequent specification, and, in part, will be obvious from the specification, or will be understood by implementing the present invention. The objectives and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained by the structures specifically pointed out in the written specification and the drawings.

[0033] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Description of the Drawings

[0034] The accompanying drawings are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention, and constitute a part of the specification. Together with the embodiments of the present invention, they are used to explain the present invention, and do not constitute a limitation to the present invention. In the drawings:

[0035] Figure 1 is a flowchart of the method for managing crude oil inventory provided in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0036] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the crude oil depot provided in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0037] Figure 3 is a schematic structural diagram of the device for managing crude oil inventory provided in the embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Embodiments

[0038] Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure will be described in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Although the exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are shown in the drawings, it should be understood that the present disclosure can be implemented in various forms and should not be limited by the embodiments set forth herein. On the contrary, these embodiments are provided so that the present disclosure can be more thoroughly understood and the scope of the present disclosure can be fully conveyed to those skilled in the art.

[0039] During the operation of crude oil inventory, due to objective factors such as the physical height of the oil loading facilities in the oil depot, the oil depot requires a certain amount of bottom oil in the tank. And to ensure the production of the oilfield and the processing of the refinery, a certain inventory safety margin needs to be reserved to ensure that in case of emergencies (such as changes in market demand, accidents during transportation, equipment maintenance, etc.), the oilfield can keep wells open, pipelines from coagulating, and refineries from shutting down. Therefore, reasonable crude oil inventory is the basis for maintaining production and business activities. If the reasonable inventory range cannot be quantified, it will lead to chaotic inventory management in the oil depot, with the proportion of a certain or multiple demand inventories being too high or too low, resulting in potential safety hazards and economic losses. Further, both too high and too low crude oil inventory will bring risks to the safe production operation of the crude oil industrial chain, thereby affecting the enterprise's benefits. Too low inventory will cause the oilfield to miss sales benefits and customers, the pipeline to fail to reach the minimum throughput requirement, and the refinery to fail to reach the minimum operating load. Too high inventory will cause the oilfield to have a blocked downstream, affecting normal production, the pipeline to have a blocked downstream, affecting continuous transportation, and the refinery to have a weakened ability to cope with market fluctuations. The inventor found in actual work that in the prior art, high liquid level, low liquid level, etc. are set during the design of the oil depot. However, the high and low liquid levels are only used to meet the safe operation of the oil depot itself and cannot meet the early warning needs during daily production operation. In view of the above problems, the present invention is proposed to provide a management method, device, storage medium, and equipment for crude oil inventory that can overcome or at least partially solve the above problems.

[0040] The above-mentioned crude oil depot in the embodiments of the present invention can be understood as a storage tank for storing crude oil, and the crude oil inventory can be understood as the actual quantity of crude oil stored in the tank. According to the different management entities and business natures of crude oil inventory, it can be divided into oilfield inventory, pipeline inventory, and refinery inventory. In the embodiments of the present invention, the crude oil depot in the tank is monitored in real time to obtain the crude oil inventory.

[0041] The embodiments of the present invention provide a management method for crude oil inventory. Referring to Figure 1 as shown, the method may include the following steps:

[0042] Step S11: Determine the lower limit value of the reasonable inventory of the crude oil depot based on the non-movable inventory, fluctuating inventory, and turnover inventory of the crude oil depot.

[0043] Step S12: Determine the upper limit value of the reasonable inventory of the crude oil depot based on the adjustment inventory of the crude oil depot and the lower limit value of the reasonable inventory.

[0044] Step S13: Use the lower limit value of the reasonable inventory as the first warning threshold and the upper limit value of the reasonable inventory as the second warning threshold, and compare them with the real-time monitored crude oil inventory of the crude oil depot to adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

[0045] Step S14: Adjust the production plan.

[0046] In the embodiment of the present invention, the above-mentioned management method for the crude oil depot is provided, where the non-movable inventory refers to the inventory set due to the objective conditions of the crude oil depot, the fluctuating inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the uncertainty of the daily sales volume of crude oil, the turnover inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the uncertainty of the arrival of crude oil, and the adjustment inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the seasonal imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil. In the embodiment of the present invention, the reasonable inventory range of the crude oil depot is determined through the non-movable inventory, the fluctuating inventory, the turnover inventory, and the adjustment inventory, and the crude oil inventory level is monitored in real time. When it approaches or exceeds the reasonable inventory range, an early warning feedback is given, so that the oilfield and the refinery can adjust the production and processing plan in time according to the warning situation, ensure that the oil depot inventory is within a reasonable and safe range, and improve the continuity and stability of the daily production operation of crude oil.

[0047] In an alternative embodiment, referring to Figure 1 as shown, the above method may further include the following steps: that is, before determining the lower limit value and the upper limit value of the reasonable inventory, it may further include:

[0048] Step S10: Determine the non-movable inventory, the fluctuating inventory, the turnover inventory, and / or the adjustment inventory of the crude oil depot.

[0049] In this step, the non-movable inventory refers to the inventory set due to the objective conditions of the crude oil depot, that is, in the production operation, the bottom oil in the tank that cannot be pumped out in time due to objective conditions such as the type of storage tank and the height of the oil outlet is determined by the investigation and statistics method; the fluctuating inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the uncertainty of the daily sales volume of crude oil, that is, the inventory stored to cope with the uncertainty of the daily demand for crude oil and the instability of crude oil production and processing, and is usually calculated by the fluctuating inventory model; the turnover inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the uncertainty of the arrival of crude oil, that is, the emergency inventory stored in advance to meet the normal production consumption within a month and for the delay of arrival, or the inventory reserved by the oilfield to ensure the smoothness of the backhaul, and is calculated by the order cycle method; the adjustment inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the seasonal imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil, that is, the inventory stored in advance to adjust the imbalance between production, refining, transportation, and sales caused by factors such as refinery maintenance and seasonal changes in market demand, and is calculated by the production and sales balance method for each enterprise. Specifically, the determination process of each of the above inventories is as follows:

[0050] (1). Determine the non-movable inventory based on the product of the cross-sectional area of the crude oil depot, the lowest safe liquid level of the crude oil depot, and the density of the crude oil in the crude oil depot; among them, the calculation formula for the non-movable inventory is as shown in formula (1) as follows:

[0051] I u = S×h×ρ Formula (1)

[0052] Among them, I uIndicates the non - available inventory, S represents the cross - sectional area of the crude oil storage tank, h represents the minimum safe liquid level of the crude oil storage tank, and ρ represents the density of the crude oil in the crude oil storage tank.

[0053] Furthermore, each enterprise / company usually includes multiple types of storage tanks, and there are multiple storage tanks of each type. The non - available inventory of each enterprise / company is calculated as a whole, that is, formula (1) is changed to formula (2) as follows:

[0054] Enterprise non - available inventory = ∑m k ×S k ×h k ×ρ Formula (2)

[0055] Among them, k represents different types of storage tanks of the enterprise, such as 100,000 cubic meters, 50,000 cubic meters, 10,000 cubic meters, etc.; m k represents the number of storage tanks of the k - th type, S k represents the cross - sectional area of the k - th type of storage tank, with the unit of square meters; h k represents the height of the minimum safe liquid level of the k - th type of storage tank, which is comprehensively considered based on the tank structure and the required minimum liquid level for operation, with the unit of meters; ρ represents the density of the crude oil stored in the storage tank, usually taking the average crude oil density, for example, 0.84 tons per cubic meter.

[0056] (2) Determine the fluctuating inventory based on the confidence parameter of the daily crude oil sales volume in the historical month, the standard deviation of the daily crude oil sales volume in the corresponding historical month of the current month, and the number of days in the historical month; among them, the calculation formula of the fluctuating inventory is as shown in formula (3) as follows:

[0057]

[0058] Among them, I f represents the fluctuating inventory, σ f represents the standard deviation of the daily crude oil sales volume in the corresponding historical month of the current month, z f represents the confidence parameter of the standard deviation of the daily crude oil sales volume, and T represents the number of days in the historical month. For example, if the current month is January, the daily sales volume (processing volume or pipeline transportation volume) of crude oil in January of previous years can be obtained, the average value is calculated, and the standard deviation is calculated based on the daily sales volume and the average value, and the confidence parameter z f of the monthly data fluctuation range of the crude oil sales volume (processing volume, pipeline transportation volume) under a certain service level is determined, and T takes the value of 30.

[0059] (3) Determine the turnover inventory based on the average daily crude oil processing volume of the refinery, the number of days of the time interval between crude oil arrivals, and the confidence parameter and standard deviation of the number of days of the time interval between crude oil arrivals; among them, the calculation formula of the turnover inventory is as shown in formula (4) as follows:

[0060]

[0061] Among them, I r represents the cycle inventory, represents the average daily crude oil processing volume of the refinery corresponding to the i-th transportation mode, represents the number of days of the time interval between the arrivals of crude oil corresponding to the i-th transportation mode, z ti represents the confidence parameter of the number of days of the time interval between the arrivals of crude oil corresponding to the i-th transportation mode, σ ti represents the standard deviation of the number of days of the time interval between the arrivals of crude oil corresponding to the i-th transportation mode. Specifically, the oilfield transports crude oil to the refinery through various transportation modes, such as pipeline transportation, waterway transportation, railway transportation, and road transportation, etc., so that the refinery processes the crude oil into refined oil. By calculating the sum of the products of the daily crude oil processing volume of the refinery corresponding to each transportation mode and the time interval between the arrivals of crude oil, the cycle inventory is determined.

[0062] (4) Determine the adjustment inventory based on the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume. Among them, the calculation formula for the adjustment inventory is as shown in formula (5) below:

[0063]

[0064] Among them, I a represents the adjustment inventory, X m represents the monthly crude oil production volume in the m-th month, Y m represents the monthly crude oil sales volume in the m-th month, where m is an integer from 1 to 12; j takes the value of 1 when the difference between the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume is greater than zero, and n represents the number of consecutive months when the difference between the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume is greater than zero.

[0065] For example, from January to March of a certain year, the difference between the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume is greater than zero, j = 1; from April to May, the difference between the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume is less than zero, j = 0; from June to July, the difference between the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume is greater than zero, j = 1; from August to October, the difference between the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume is less than zero, j = 0; from November to December, the difference between the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume is greater than zero, j = 1, as shown in Table 1, then the adjustment inventory I a takes the maximum value among Z1, Z2, and Z3.

[0066] Table 1 Adjustment inventory I a Value table

[0067]

[0068] The above steps S11 and S12 are to determine the reasonable inventory range of the crude oil storage, where reference is made to Figure 2As shown, the preset reasonable inventory range includes a reasonable inventory lower limit value and a reasonable inventory upper limit value. The reasonable inventory lower limit value is determined based on the non - available inventory, fluctuating inventory, and turnover inventory. The reasonable inventory upper limit value is determined based on the reasonable inventory lower limit value and the adjustment inventory. The non - available inventory refers to the inventory set due to the objective conditions of the crude oil storage tank. The fluctuating inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the uncertainty of the daily sales volume of crude oil. The turnover inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the uncertainty of the arrival of crude oil. The adjustment inventory refers to the inventory set to cope with the seasonal imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil. In this embodiment, the reasonable inventory lower limit value = non - available inventory + fluctuating inventory + turnover inventory, and the reasonable inventory upper limit value = reasonable inventory lower limit value + adjustment inventory.

[0069] In the above step S13, when the crude oil inventory is not within the preset reasonable inventory range, an inventory warning message is output, that is: after obtaining the crude oil inventory, it is judged whether the crude oil inventory is within the preset reasonable inventory range. When the crude oil inventory is not within the preset reasonable inventory range, that is, when it exceeds the reasonable inventory upper limit value or is lower than the reasonable inventory lower limit value, an inventory warning message will be output. When the inventory is close to or exceeds the reasonable inventory upper limit value, it indicates that there is room for optimizing inventory, reducing costs and increasing efficiency. When the inventory is close to or lower than the reasonable inventory lower limit value, it indicates that there is a certain risk in ensuring the continuity of production operation.

[0070] In a specific embodiment, when making the judgment in the above step S13, the first warning threshold and the second warning threshold are respectively compared with the crude oil inventory to adjust the production plan based on the comparison results, specifically including:

[0071] If the difference between the first warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than the first preset value, a first - level inventory warning message is generated to adjust the production plan based on the first - level inventory warning message; wherein, the first preset value is greater than or equal to zero;

[0072] If the difference between the second warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than the second preset value, a second - level inventory warning message is generated to adjust the production plan based on the second - level inventory warning message; wherein, the second preset value is greater than or equal to zero.

[0073] In this embodiment, the reasonable inventory range of the crude oil storage tank is determined through non - available inventory, fluctuating inventory, turnover inventory, and adjustment inventory, and the crude oil inventory is monitored in real - time. When the crude oil inventory is close to or exceeds the reasonable inventory range, an early warning feedback is carried out, enabling the oilfield and refinery to adjust the production and processing plan in a timely manner according to the warning situation, ensuring that the oil storage tank inventory is in a reasonable and safe range, and improving the continuity and stability of the daily production operation of crude oil.

[0074] In another alternative embodiment, it also refers to Figure 1As shown, the above method may also include: step S15, determining a third warning threshold based on the maximum inventory capacity of the crude oil depot, the fluctuating inventory and the turnover inventory, and comparing the third warning threshold with the crude oil inventory to adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

[0075] In this step, the maximum inventory capacity refers to the maximum oil tank storage capacity determined based on the type of storage tank and the maximum safe liquid level height. The "oil tank filling coefficient" can be used to measure the maximum inventory capacity of the oil tank. The filling coefficient is generally 0.9, or the "high liquid level alarm" and "high-high liquid level alarm" can be used to measure the maximum inventory capacity of the oil tank.

[0076] Specifically, a comparison is made based on the third warning threshold and the crude oil inventory to adjust the production plan based on the comparison result, and the specific implementation is as follows: if the difference between the third warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than the third preset value, a third-level inventory warning information is generated to adjust the production plan based on the third-level inventory warning information; wherein the third preset value is greater than or equal to zero.

[0077] In the embodiment of the present invention, according to the actual needs of crude oil inventory management and in order to avoid overly complex and frequent warnings, this embodiment proposes a three-level warning level, and each level of warning can be represented by flashing lights of different colors, such as the first level inventory warning information is an orange warning, the second level inventory warning information is a yellow warning, and the third level inventory warning information is a red warning.

[0078] Furthermore, in combination with what is shown in Table 2, the lower limit of reasonable inventory is taken as the first-level warning threshold. When the crude oil inventory is close to or lower than the first-level warning threshold, an orange warning is issued, indicating that the inventory is low; the upper limit of reasonable inventory is taken as the second-level warning threshold. When the crude oil inventory is close to or higher than the second-level warning threshold, a yellow warning is issued, indicating that the inventory is high; the third-level warning threshold is taken as the maximum inventory capacity minus the turnover inventory and the fluctuating inventory. When the crude oil inventory is close to or higher than the third-level warning threshold, a red warning is issued, indicating that the inventory is extremely high.

[0079] Table 2 Warning classification table

[0080]

[0081]

[0082] Based on the above-mentioned embodiments, the embodiment of the present invention provides graded early warning for crude oil inventory, which can help managers better understand and grasp the crude oil inventory situation, formulate corresponding processing strategies and emergency plans in a targeted manner, and improve the management efficiency of crude oil inventory.

[0083] In another alternative embodiment, referring to Figure 1As shown in the figure, the method may further include the following steps: Step S16: Set a management mode for the crude oil inventory that includes multiple levels of managers, so that each level of manager is responsible for adjusting the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory within the corresponding area.

[0084] This step is to set a management mode for the crude oil inventory. In this embodiment, it is preferably that the crude oil inventory management mode includes multiple levels of managers, and each level of manager is responsible for adjusting the crude oil inventory within the corresponding area. Specifically, the crude oil inventory management mode includes multiple levels of managers, and each level of manager is responsible for adjusting the crude oil inventory within the corresponding area. The adjustment area responsible for by the upper-level manager is wider than that of the lower-level manager.

[0085] Step S17: If the lower-level manager fails to adjust the crude oil inventory within its responsible area to the preset reasonable inventory range, the lower-level manager will report the inventory warning information to the upper-level manager.

[0086] Specifically, when the lower-level manager receives the warning information, the lower-level manager first makes a local adjustment to the crude oil inventory within its management area. If it cannot be adjusted to the preset reasonable inventory range, it will report the warning information to the upper-level manager. The upper-level manager will adjust the crude oil inventory within a larger management area, and so on, until it is reported to the highest-level manager to achieve global adjustment.

[0087] For example, the crude oil inventory is managed at three levels: headquarters, professional company, and enterprise. Among them, the headquarters production and operation management department is responsible for the overall management of the crude oil inventory plan and regularly formulating the monthly control targets for the crude oil inventory of professional companies. Professional Company 1 is responsible for compiling and reporting the annual, quarterly, and monthly crude oil inventory proposed plans, and issuing the formal inventory plan to the enterprises under this professional company; second, according to the headquarters inventory control requirements and production operation conditions, optimizing and regulating the production operation inventory of each enterprise; third, regularly reporting the completion of crude oil inventory production and operation to the headquarters. Each enterprise is the main body responsible for the production operation inventory management, realizes the operation management of the crude oil inventory according to the crude oil inventory plan issued by the headquarters and professional companies, realizes the monthly control target of the inventory, and regularly reports the completion of crude oil inventory production and operation to the professional company according to the requirements. A hierarchical warning reporting mechanism of enterprise - professional company - headquarters can be established, as shown in Table 3.

[0088] Table 3 Hierarchical warning reporting mechanism of enterprise - professional company - headquarters

[0089]

[0090] It should be noted that, in addition to implementing hierarchical early warnings according to the aforementioned inventory management mode, regional inventory early warnings can also be carried out according to the regional distribution characteristics of the areas where the crude oil depots are located; inventory early warnings for different oil types can also be carried out according to the resource allocation characteristics, etc. The embodiments of the present invention do not make specific limitations thereto. On the basis of the foregoing embodiments, by determining the crude oil inventory management mode, the crude oil inventory management mode includes multiple levels of managers, and each level of manager is responsible for adjusting the crude oil inventory in the corresponding area; in the case where the lower-level manager cannot adjust the crude oil inventory in the corresponding area to the preset reasonable inventory range, the inventory early warning information is reported to the upper-level manager, realizing the hierarchical reporting of the crude oil inventory early warning information, improving the solution efficiency of the early warning, and improving the management efficiency of the crude oil inventory.

[0091] In another alternative embodiment, still referring to Figure 1 as shown, the method may further include the following steps: Step S18, based on the relationship between the current price of crude oil and the historical price of crude oil, adjust the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory.

[0092] When specifically implementing this step, it may include two methods:

[0093] <Method 1> Based on the relationship between the current price of crude oil and the moving average of the crude oil price trend determined by the historical price of crude oil, adjust the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory.

[0094] When specifically implementing this method, first, obtain the current price of crude oil and the average price of crude oil in the first historical period. Specifically, the first historical period is a relatively long period, such as 6 months or 12 months. In this method, obtaining the average price of crude oil in a relatively long period, that is, the medium- and long-term moving average of the crude oil price trend. Then, determine the crude oil inventory adjustment strategy according to the comparison relationship between the current price of crude oil and the average price of crude oil.

[0095] Since the crude oil inventory has both physical attributes and value attributes, while it shows a physical form, its value form is also presented according to the corresponding price, that is, the value of the crude oil inventory fluctuates with the fluctuation of the oil price. Therefore, when considering the needs of production organization, the impact of its capital occupation and value fluctuation should also be considered. For example, selling the crude oil stored during the high oil price period in the low oil price period will lead to the depreciation of the inventory value and cause benefit losses; also, when the oil price fluctuates frequently, the risk of potential losses caused by high crude oil inventory to the enterprise will increase sharply. In this step, when the current price of crude oil drops below the medium- and long-term trend moving average, it is a better opportunity to establish long positions and increase the purchase volume of crude oil; when the current price of crude oil rises above the medium- and long-term moving average trend, it is a better opportunity to start establishing short positions and increase the sales efforts of crude oil.

[0096] On the basis of the foregoing embodiments, by obtaining the current price of crude oil; obtaining the average historical price of crude oil in the first historical period; and determining the crude oil inventory adjustment strategy according to the comparison relationship between the current price of crude oil and the average historical price of crude oil, the corresponding crude oil inventory adjustment strategy is adopted according to the oil price trend, and the economic loss caused by the change in crude oil price is reduced.

[0097] <Method 2> Predict the current price trend of crude oil based on the historical price of crude oil, determine the hedging strategy for the crude oil inventory based on the range where the current price of crude oil is located and the predicted current price trend of crude oil, and adjust the production plan based on the hedging strategy.

[0098] When this method is specifically implemented, first, obtain the current price of crude oil and determine the range where the current price of crude oil is located. Specifically, the crude oil price is divided into three ranges: upper, middle, and lower, and the range where the current price of crude oil is located can be determined. Then, predict the current price trend of crude oil based on the historical price of crude oil in the second historical period. Specifically, the second historical period can be understood as the historical month corresponding to the current month, and the current price trend of crude oil, including two trends: rising and falling, can be predicted based on the change trend of the historical price of crude oil in the historical month. Finally, determine the hedging strategy for the crude oil inventory according to the range where the current price of crude oil is located and the current price trend of crude oil. Specifically, adopt the corresponding hedging strategy according to the range where the crude oil price is located and the current trend of the crude oil price. As shown in Table 4, the hedging strategies adopted under different crude oil price ranges and different trends are listed.

[0099] Table 4 Hedging strategies adopted under different crude oil price ranges and different trends

[0100]

[0101] On the basis of the foregoing embodiments, by obtaining the current price of crude oil and determining the range where the current price of crude oil is located; predicting the current price trend of crude oil based on the historical price of crude oil in the second historical period; determining the hedging strategy for the crude oil inventory according to the range where the current price of crude oil is located and the current price trend of crude oil; the corresponding hedging strategy is adopted according to the oil price trend, the economic loss is reduced, and the economic benefit is increased.

[0102] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiments of the present invention provide a management device for crude oil inventory. Referring to Figure 3 as shown, the device may include: an inventory lower limit value determination module 11, an inventory upper limit value determination module 12, a comparison module 13, and an adjustment module 14, and its working principle is as follows:

[0103] The inventory lower limit value determination module 11 is used to determine the reasonable inventory lower limit value of the crude oil depot based on the non-movable inventory, fluctuating inventory, and turnover inventory of the crude oil depot;

[0104] The upper inventory limit determination module 12 is configured to determine a reasonable upper inventory limit of the crude oil storage based on the adjusted inventory and the reasonable lower inventory limit of the crude oil storage;

[0105] The comparison module 13 is configured to use the reasonable lower inventory limit as the first warning threshold and the reasonable upper inventory limit as the second warning threshold, and compare them with the real-time monitored crude oil inventory in the crude oil storage, so as to adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

[0106] The adjustment module 14 is configured to adjust the production plan.

[0107] In an alternative embodiment, with reference to Figure 3 As shown, the device may further include: an inventory determination module 10, configured to determine the unavailable inventory, the fluctuating inventory, the turnover inventory, and / or the adjusted inventory of the crude oil storage.

[0108] Specifically, the unavailable inventory is determined based on the product of the cross-sectional area of the crude oil storage, the lowest safe liquid level of the crude oil storage, and the density of the crude oil in the crude oil storage;

[0109] The fluctuating inventory is determined based on the confidence parameter of the daily crude oil sales volume in the historical month, the standard deviation of the daily crude oil sales volume in the historical month corresponding to the current month, and the number of days in the historical month;

[0110] The turnover inventory is determined based on the average daily crude oil processing volume of the refinery, the number of days of the time interval between crude oil arrivals, and the confidence parameter and standard deviation of the number of days of the time interval between crude oil arrivals; and / or,

[0111] The adjusted inventory is determined based on the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume.

[0112] In another alternative embodiment, the comparison module 13 is specifically configured to:

[0113] If the difference between the first warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a first preset value, a first-level inventory warning message is generated to adjust the production plan based on the first-level inventory warning message; wherein, the first preset value is greater than or equal to zero;

[0114] If the difference between the second warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a second preset value, a second-level inventory warning message is generated to adjust the production plan based on the second-level inventory warning message; wherein, the second preset value is greater than or equal to zero.

[0115] In another alternative embodiment, with reference to Figure 3As shown, the device may further include: a third warning threshold determination module 15, which is configured to determine a third warning threshold based on the maximum inventory capacity of the crude oil depot, the fluctuating inventory, and the turnover inventory, so as to compare the third warning threshold with the crude oil inventory and adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

[0116] Specifically, the third warning threshold determination module 15 is configured to: if the difference between the third warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a third preset value, generate a third-level inventory warning message to adjust the production plan based on the third-level inventory warning message; where the third preset value is greater than or equal to zero.

[0117] In another alternative embodiment, referring to Figure 3 As shown, the device may further include: a setting module 16 and a reporting module 17; where the setting module 16 is configured to set a management mode for the crude oil inventory including multiple levels of managers, so that each level of manager is responsible for adjusting the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory within the corresponding area; where the reporting module 17 is configured to, if the lower-level manager fails to adjust the crude oil inventory within its responsible area to the preset reasonable inventory range, the lower-level manager reports the inventory warning message to the upper-level manager.

[0118] In another alternative embodiment, referring to Figure 3 As shown, the device may further include: a price comparison module 18, which is configured to adjust the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory based on the relationship between the current price of the crude oil and the historical price of the crude oil.

[0119] Specifically, the price comparison module 18 is configured to: based on the relationship between the current price of the crude oil and the moving average of the crude oil price trend determined by the historical price of the crude oil, to adjust the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory; and / or,

[0120] Predict the current price trend of the crude oil based on the historical price of the crude oil, to determine the hedging strategy for the crude oil inventory based on the interval where the current price of the crude oil is located and the predicted current price trend of the crude oil, and to adjust the production plan based on the hedging strategy.

[0121] Based on the same inventive concept, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, the above-mentioned management method for crude oil inventory is implemented.

[0122] Based on the same inventive concept, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, and when the processor executes the program, the above-mentioned management method for crude oil inventory is implemented.

[0123] The principle of the problems solved by the above-mentioned device, storage medium, and related equipment in the embodiments of the present invention is similar to that of the foregoing method. Therefore, the implementation thereof can refer to the implementation of the foregoing method, and the repeated parts will not be elaborated.

[0124] Those skilled in the art should understand that the embodiments of the present invention can be provided as a method, a system, or a computer program product. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Moreover, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage and optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0125] The present invention is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatuses (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each flow and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of flows and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to the processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing devices to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing devices generate for implementing in the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or blocks Figure 1 a device for the functions specified in one block or multiple blocks.

[0126] These computer program instructions can also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to work in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory generate a manufactured article including an instruction device, and the instruction device implements in the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or blocks Figure 1 a device for the functions specified in one block or multiple blocks.

[0127] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that a series of operation steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to generate a computer-implemented process, and thus the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or blocks Figure 1 a device for the functions specified in one block or multiple blocks.

[0128] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various modifications and variations to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalent technologies, the present invention is also intended to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A method for managing crude oil inventory, characterized in that, Including: Determine a reasonable lower inventory limit value of the crude oil storage tank based on the immovable inventory, fluctuating inventory, and turnover inventory of the crude oil storage tank; Determine a reasonable upper inventory limit value of the crude oil storage tank based on the adjustment inventory of the crude oil storage tank and the reasonable lower inventory limit value; Use the reasonable lower inventory limit value as the first warning threshold and the reasonable upper inventory limit value as the second warning threshold, and compare them with the real-time monitored crude oil inventory of the crude oil storage tank, so as to adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein Before determining the reasonable lower inventory limit value and the reasonable upper inventory limit value, it further includes: determining the immovable inventory based on the product of the cross-sectional area of the crude oil storage tank, the lowest safe liquid level of the crude oil storage tank, and the crude oil density in the crude oil storage tank; Determine the fluctuating inventory based on the confidence parameter of the daily crude oil sales volume in the historical month, the standard deviation of the daily crude oil sales volume in the historical month corresponding to the current month, and the number of days in the historical month; Determine the turnover inventory based on the average daily crude oil processing volume of the refinery, the number of days of the time interval between crude oil arrivals, and the confidence parameter and standard deviation of the number of days of the time interval between crude oil arrivals; and / or, Determine the adjustment inventory based on the monthly crude oil production volume and the monthly crude oil sales volume.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein Based on the comparison of the first warning threshold and the second warning threshold with the crude oil inventory respectively, so as to adjust the production plan based on the comparison result, including: If the difference between the first warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a first preset value, generate a first-level inventory warning message to adjust the production plan based on the first-level inventory warning message; wherein, the first preset value is greater than or equal to zero; If the difference between the second warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a second preset value, generate a second-level inventory warning message to adjust the production plan based on the second-level inventory warning message; wherein, the second preset value is greater than or equal to zero.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein It further includes: Determine a third warning threshold based on the maximum inventory capacity of the crude oil storage tank, the fluctuating inventory, and the turnover inventory, so as to compare the third warning threshold with the crude oil inventory and adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein Based on the comparison of the third warning threshold and the crude oil inventory, so as to adjust the production plan based on the comparison result, including: If the difference between the third warning threshold and the crude oil inventory is less than a third preset value, generate a third-level inventory warning message to adjust the production plan based on the third-level inventory warning message; wherein, the third preset value is greater than or equal to zero.

6. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that, It further includes: Set a management mode for the crude oil inventory including multiple levels of managers, so that each level of manager is responsible for adjusting the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory in the corresponding area; Wherein, if the lower-level manager fails to adjust the crude oil inventory in its responsible area to the preset reasonable inventory range, the lower-level manager will report the inventory warning message to the upper-level manager.

7. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that It further includes: Based on the relationship between the current price of crude oil and the historical price of crude oil, adjust the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory.

8. The method according to claim 7, wherein The adjustment of the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory based on the relationship between the current price of crude oil and the historical price of crude oil includes: Based on the relationship between the current price of crude oil and the moving average of the crude oil price trend determined from the historical price of crude oil, adjust the production plan corresponding to the crude oil inventory; and / or, Predict the current price trend of crude oil based on the historical price of crude oil, determine the hedging strategy for the crude oil inventory based on the range in which the current price of crude oil is located and the predicted current price trend of crude oil, and adjust the production plan based on the hedging strategy.

9. An apparatus for managing crude oil inventory, characterized in that, Comprising: An inventory lower limit value determination module, configured to determine a reasonable lower limit value of the crude oil inventory based on the unavailable inventory, fluctuating inventory, and turnover inventory of the crude oil storage; An inventory upper limit value determination module, configured to determine a reasonable upper limit value of the crude oil inventory based on the adjustment inventory of the crude oil storage and the reasonable lower limit value of the inventory; An adjustment module, configured to use the reasonable lower limit value of the inventory as a first warning threshold and the reasonable upper limit value of the inventory as a second warning threshold, compare with the real-time monitored crude oil inventory of the crude oil storage, and adjust the production plan based on the comparison result.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the program is executed by a processor, it implements the crude oil inventory management method according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

11. A computer device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that, When the processor executes the program, it implements the crude oil inventory management method according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

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