New energy consumption risk early warning method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a new energy consumption risk early warning method and system. The method comprises the steps of obtaining new energy utilization rate analysis data according to quarterly; calculating a wind power utilization rate and a photovoltaic utilization rate according to the new energy utilization rate analysis data; and if the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic utilization rate is decreased by more than a decrease threshold compared with the same period of the last year, outputting a new energy consumption risk early warning. According to the method, the index monitoring rule is established, the new energy consumption early warning information is output if the early warning index is reached, the seasonal year-on-year speed increase of the new energy consumption related index is calculated, the new energy consumption correlation analysis map is constructed, the index transaction condition is judged, and the traceability analysis is performed, so that risk early warning for new energy consumption is reduced, and the new energy consumption early warning efficiency is improved. Reasons of new energy consumption reduction are traced, new energy consumption risk points can be found, and coping strategies and suggestions are put forward in a targeted manner.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of new energy consumption, and particularly to a method and system for early warning of new energy consumption risks. Background Art

[0002] With the increasing global demand for clean energy, the installed capacity of new energy power generation such as solar energy and wind energy has shown explosive growth. A large amount of new energy is connected to the power grid, changing the power source structure of the traditional power system. Solar photovoltaic power generation depends on the light intensity, and wind power generation depends on the wind speed. Both are affected by natural conditions and have obvious intermittency and volatility. This unstable power generation characteristic is in sharp contrast to the relatively stable output of traditional thermal power and hydropower. Therefore, it is urgent to carry out research on new energy consumption early warning and establish a method for early warning of reducing new energy consumption risks. Summary of the Invention

[0003] In order to solve the problem that most of the technical evaluations of new energy consumption capacity in the prior art analyze from aspects of power balance, security and stability constraints, and power quality, and cannot comprehensively consider the real restrictive factors of new energy consumption, the present invention provides a method and system for early warning of new energy consumption risks.

[0004] The technical solution provided by the present invention is as follows:

[0005] Obtain new energy utilization analysis data quarterly;

[0006] Calculate the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic power utilization rate according to the new energy utilization analysis data;

[0007] If the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic power utilization rate drops by more than the drop threshold compared with the same period of last year, output an early warning of new energy consumption risk.

[0008] Preferably, the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic power utilization rate are determined by the following formula:

[0009] Wind power utilization rate = (wind power generation in this quarter - wind power curtailment in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%;

[0010] Photovoltaic power utilization rate = (photovoltaic power generation in this quarter - photovoltaic power curtailment in this quarter) / photovoltaic power generation in this quarter × 100%.

[0011] Preferably, after outputting the early warning of new energy consumption risk when the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic power utilization rate drops by more than the drop threshold compared with the same period of last year, it further includes:

[0012] Obtain new energy consumption traceability analysis data quarterly;

[0013] Calculate the growth rate of the new energy consumption traceability analysis data according to the new energy consumption traceability analysis data;

[0014] The cause of the reduction in new energy consumption is obtained through traceability analysis based on the growth rate of the traceability analysis data of new energy consumption.

[0015] Preferably, the traceability analysis data of new energy consumption includes at least one or more of the following: wind power installed capacity, photovoltaic installed capacity, pumped storage installed capacity, new energy storage installed capacity, electricity consumption, new energy transaction electricity between provinces, new energy grid connection investment, or open capacity of the distribution network.

[0016] Preferably, the growth rate of the traceability analysis data of new energy consumption is determined by the following formula:

[0017] Growth rate of wind power installed capacity = (wind power installed capacity at the end of this quarter - wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0018] Growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity = (photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of this quarter - photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0019] Growth rate of pumped storage installed capacity = (pumped storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0020] Growth rate of new energy storage installed capacity = (new energy storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0021] Growth rate of electricity consumption = (electricity consumption at the end of this quarter - electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0022] Growth rate of new energy transaction electricity between provinces = (new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of this quarter - new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0023] Growth rate of new energy grid connection investment = (new energy grid connection investment at the end of this quarter - new energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / new energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0024] Growth rate of open capacity of the distribution network = (open capacity of the distribution network at the end of this quarter - open capacity of the distribution network at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / open capacity of the distribution network at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%.

[0025] Preferably, the cause of the reduction in new energy consumption obtained through traceability analysis based on the growth rate of the traceability analysis data of new energy consumption includes:

[0026] If the growth rates of wind power installed capacity and photovoltaic installed capacity exceed the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is that the development of new energy leads to a decline in the utilization rate of new energy;

[0027] If the growth rates of pumped storage installed capacity and new energy storage installed capacity are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient regulation capacity;

[0028] If the growth rates of electricity consumption and inter-provincial new energy transaction electricity are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient electricity demand;

[0029] If the growth rates of new energy grid connection investment and the open capacity of the distribution network are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient grid resource allocation capacity.

[0030] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a new energy consumption risk warning system, including: a module for analyzing the utilization rate of new energy, a module for calculating the utilization rates of wind power and photovoltaic power, and a warning module;

[0031] The module for analyzing the utilization rate of new energy: is used to obtain new energy utilization rate analysis data on a quarterly basis;

[0032] The module for calculating the utilization rates of wind power and photovoltaic power: is used to calculate the utilization rates of wind power and photovoltaic power according to the new energy utilization rate analysis data;

[0033] The warning module: is used to output a new energy consumption risk warning if the utilization rate of wind power or photovoltaic power drops by more than the drop threshold compared with the same period last year.

[0034] Preferably, the wind power utilization rate and photovoltaic power utilization rate in the module for calculating the utilization rates of wind power and photovoltaic power are determined by the following formula:

[0035] Wind power utilization rate = (wind power generation in this quarter - wind power curtailment in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%;

[0036] Photovoltaic power utilization rate = (photovoltaic power generation in this quarter - photovoltaic power curtailment in this quarter) / photovoltaic power generation in this quarter × 100%.

[0037] Preferably, the system further includes: a module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data, a module for calculating the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data, and a module for analyzing the reason;

[0038] The module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data: is used to obtain new energy consumption traceability analysis data on a quarterly basis;

[0039] The module for calculating the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data: is used to calculate the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data according to the new energy consumption traceability analysis data;

[0040] Analysis incentive module: used to perform traceability analysis based on the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data to obtain the incentives for the reduction of new energy consumption.

[0041] Preferably, the new energy consumption traceability analysis data in the module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data includes at least one or more of the following: wind power installed capacity, photovoltaic installed capacity, pumped storage installed capacity, new energy storage installed capacity, electricity consumption, new energy transaction electricity between provinces, new energy grid connection investment, or open capacity of the distribution network.

[0042] Preferably, the growth rate of the new energy consumption traceability analysis data in the module for calculating the growth rate of the new energy consumption traceability analysis data is determined by the following formula:

[0043] Growth rate of wind power installed capacity = (wind power installed capacity at the end of this quarter - wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0044] Growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity = (photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of this quarter - photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0045] Growth rate of pumped storage installed capacity = (pumped storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0046] Growth rate of new energy storage installed capacity = (new energy storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0047] Growth rate of electricity consumption = (electricity consumption at the end of this quarter - electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of last year) / electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0048] Growth rate of new energy transaction electricity between provinces = (new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of this quarter - new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of last year) / new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0049] Growth rate of new energy grid connection investment = (new energy grid connection investment at the end of this quarter - new energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of last year) / new energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0050] Growth rate of open capacity of the distribution network = (open capacity of the distribution network at the end of this quarter - open capacity of the distribution network at the end of the same quarter of last year) / open capacity of the distribution network at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%.

[0051] Preferably, the analysis incentive module specifically includes:

[0052] If the growth rates of wind power installed capacity and photovoltaic installed capacity exceed the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is that the development of new energy leads to a decrease in the utilization rate of new energy;

[0053] If the growth rates of pumped storage installed capacity and new type energy storage installed capacity are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient regulation capacity;

[0054] If the growth rates of electricity consumption and inter-provincial new energy trading electricity are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient electricity demand;

[0055] If the growth rates of new energy grid connection investment and the open capacity of the distribution network are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient grid resource allocation capacity.

[0056] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0057] The present invention provides a new energy consumption risk warning method and system, including: obtaining new energy utilization rate analysis data quarterly; calculating the wind power utilization rate and photovoltaic utilization rate according to the new energy utilization rate analysis data; if the wind power utilization rate or photovoltaic utilization rate drops by more than the drop threshold compared with the same period last year, output a new energy consumption risk warning; by establishing index monitoring rules, if the warning index is reached, output a new energy consumption warning message, calculate the quarterly year-on-year growth rate of new energy consumption related indicators, construct a new energy consumption correlation analysis map, judge the abnormal situation of the indicators, and conduct traceability analysis, realizing risk warning for reducing new energy consumption. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0058] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the new energy consumption risk warning method of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 2 It is an index correlation analysis map of the new energy consumption risk warning method of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of traceability analysis of the new energy consumption risk warning method of the present invention;

[0061] Figure 4 It is a schematic flowchart of a specific embodiment of the new energy consumption risk warning method of the present invention;

[0062] Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of the new energy consumption risk warning system of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0063] The following further details the specific embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings.

[0064] Embodiment 1

[0065] The present invention provides a new energy consumption risk warning method, and the flow chart is as shown in Figure 1 and includes:

[0066] S1. Obtain new energy utilization rate analysis data quarterly;

[0067] S2. Calculate the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic power utilization rate according to the new energy utilization rate analysis data;

[0068] S3. If the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic power utilization rate decreases by more than the decline threshold compared with the same period of last year, output a new energy consumption risk warning.

[0069] Step S2 specifically includes:

[0070] For the new energy utilization rate of core monitoring and the wind power and photovoltaic power utilization rates by type, set the threshold for index change, focus on monitoring the decline of the index, and conduct traceability analysis according to the atlas when the threshold is triggered.

[0071] Growth rate of photovoltaic power generation = (photovoltaic power generation at the end of this quarter - photovoltaic power generation at the end of the same quarter of last year) / photovoltaic power generation at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%.

[0072] Growth rate of wind power curtailment = (wind power curtailment at the end of this quarter - wind power curtailment at the end of the same quarter of last year) / wind power curtailment at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%.

[0073] Growth rate of wind power generation = (wind power generation at the end of this quarter - wind power generation at the end of the same quarter of last year) / wind power generation at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%.

[0074] Growth rate of photovoltaic power generation = (photovoltaic power generation at the end of this quarter - photovoltaic power generation at the end of the same quarter of last year) / photovoltaic power generation at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%.

[0075] Wind power utilization rate = (wind power generation in this quarter - wind power curtailment in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%.

[0076] Photovoltaic power utilization rate = (photovoltaic power generation in this quarter - photovoltaic power curtailment in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%.

[0077] Step S3 specifically includes:

[0078] Monitoring rule: mainly monitor the year-on-year change range, and the monitoring threshold is that the utilization rate of new energy (wind power, photovoltaic power) decreases by more than 1.0 percentage point compared with the same period of last year.

[0079] Monitoring frequency: Quarterly. Obtain the basic data quarterly. Calculate the year-on-year growth rate quarterly to determine whether the utilization rate of new energy has decreased by 1.0 percentage points compared with the same period last year. If it has decreased by 1.0 percentage points, conduct a traceability analysis, deeply explore the reasons for the decrease, and output the early warning information on the consumption of new energy.

[0080] After step S3, it further includes:

[0081] Focus on the core indicator of the utilization rate of new energy, and construct an index correlation analysis map as Figure 2 shown. Pay attention to the correlation between the development of new energy, regulation ability, grid resource allocation ability, and electricity demand. Further trace the deep reasons for the abnormal changes of the indicators, support the optimization of relevant supporting measures, promote the high-quality development of new energy, trace the reasons for the reduction of new energy consumption, discover the risk points of new energy consumption, and put forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions.

[0082] Traceability analysis: The schematic diagram is as Figure 3 shown. Based on the data analysis of 8 key indicators, namely the growth rate of wind power installed capacity, the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity, the growth rate of pumped storage installed capacity, the growth rate of new energy storage installed capacity, the growth rate of open capacity of distribution network, the growth rate of electricity consumption, and the growth rate of new energy transaction electricity between provinces, the risk factors causing the reduction of new energy consumption are obtained.

[0083] Growth rate of wind power installed capacity = (wind power installed capacity at the end of this quarter - wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0084] Growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity = (photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of this quarter - photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0085] Growth rate of pumped storage installed capacity = (pumped storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0086] Growth rate of new energy storage installed capacity = (new energy storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0087] Growth rate of electricity consumption = (electricity consumption at the end of this quarter - electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of last year) / electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0088] Growth rate of new energy transaction electricity between provinces = (new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of this quarter - new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of last year) / new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0089] Growth rate of new energy grid connection investment = (New energy grid connection investment at the end of this quarter - New energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of last year) / New energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0090] Growth rate of available capacity of distribution network = (Available capacity of distribution network at the end of this quarter - Available capacity of distribution network at the end of the same quarter of last year) / Available capacity of distribution network at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%.

[0091] If the growth rates of wind power installed capacity and photovoltaic installed capacity exceed the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is that the development of new energy leads to a decrease in new energy utilization rate;

[0092] If the growth rates of pumped storage installed capacity and new type energy storage installed capacity are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient regulation capacity;

[0093] If the growth rates of electricity consumption and new energy transaction electricity between provinces are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient electricity demand;

[0094] If the growth rates of new energy grid connection investment and available capacity of distribution network are lower than the threshold, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient grid resource allocation capacity.

[0095] In summary, the flow chart of a specific embodiment of this method is as Figure 4 shown.

[0096] Embodiment 2

[0097] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a new energy consumption risk warning system, as Figure 5 shown, including: a module for analyzing new energy utilization rate, a module for calculating wind power utilization rate and photovoltaic utilization rate, and a warning module;

[0098] The module for analyzing new energy utilization rate: is used to obtain new energy utilization rate analysis data quarterly;

[0099] The module for calculating wind power utilization rate and photovoltaic utilization rate: is used to calculate wind power utilization rate and photovoltaic utilization rate according to the new energy utilization rate analysis data;

[0100] The warning module: is used to output a new energy consumption risk warning if the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic utilization rate drops more than the drop threshold compared with the same period of last year.

[0101] Preferably, the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic utilization rate in the module for calculating wind power utilization rate and photovoltaic utilization rate are determined by the following formula:

[0102] Wind power utilization rate = (Wind power generation this quarter - Wind power curtailment this quarter) / Wind power generation this quarter × 100%;

[0103] Photovoltaic utilization rate = (photovoltaic power generation in this quarter - photovoltaic abandoned power in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%.

[0104] Preferably, the system further includes: a module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data, a module for calculating the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data, and a module for analyzing incentives;

[0105] Module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data: used to obtain new energy consumption traceability analysis data quarterly;

[0106] Module for calculating the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data: used to calculate the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data based on the new energy consumption traceability analysis data;

[0107] Module for analyzing incentives: used to conduct traceability analysis based on the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data to obtain the incentives for the reduction of new energy consumption.

[0108] Preferably, the new energy consumption traceability analysis data in the module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data includes at least one or more of the following: wind power installed capacity, photovoltaic installed capacity, pumped storage installed capacity, new energy storage installed capacity, electricity consumption, new energy transaction electricity between provinces, new energy grid connection investment, or open capacity of the distribution network.

[0109] Preferably, the growth rate of the new energy consumption traceability analysis data in the module for calculating the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data is determined by the following formula:

[0110] Growth rate of wind power installed capacity = (wind power installed capacity at the end of this quarter - wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0111] Growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity = (photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of this quarter - photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0112] Growth rate of pumped storage installed capacity = (pumped storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0113] Growth rate of new energy storage installed capacity = (new energy storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0114] Growth rate of electricity consumption = (electricity consumption at the end of this quarter - electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of the previous year) / electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of the previous year × 100%;

[0115] Growth rate of new energy transaction electricity between provinces = (New energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of this quarter - New energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of last year) / New energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0116] Growth rate of new energy grid connection investment = (New energy grid connection investment at the end of this quarter - New energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of last year) / New energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%;

[0117] Growth rate of available capacity of distribution network = (Available capacity of distribution network at the end of this quarter - Available capacity of distribution network at the end of the same quarter of last year) / Available capacity of distribution network at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%.

[0118] Preferably, the analysis incentive module specifically includes:

[0119] If the growth rates of wind power installed capacity and photovoltaic installed capacity exceed the threshold, the incentive for the reduction of new energy consumption is that the development of new energy leads to the decline of new energy utilization rate;

[0120] If the growth rates of pumped storage installed capacity and new type energy storage installed capacity are lower than the threshold, the incentive for the reduction of new energy consumption is insufficient regulation capacity;

[0121] If the growth rates of electricity consumption and new energy transaction electricity between provinces are lower than the threshold, the incentive for the reduction of new energy consumption is insufficient electricity demand;

[0122] If the growth rates of new energy grid connection investment and available capacity of distribution network are lower than the threshold, the incentive for the reduction of new energy consumption is insufficient grid resource allocation capacity.

[0123] In summary, a new energy consumption risk warning method and system provided by the present invention include: obtaining new energy utilization rate analysis data quarterly; calculating wind power utilization rate and photovoltaic utilization rate according to the new energy utilization rate analysis data; if the wind power utilization rate or photovoltaic utilization rate drops more than the drop threshold compared with the same period of last year, output a new energy consumption risk warning. By establishing index monitoring rules, the present invention outputs a new energy consumption warning message if the warning index is reached, and calculates the quarterly year-on-year growth rate of new energy consumption related indexes, which can provide risk warning for the reduction of new energy consumption and improve the observation of new energy consumption fluctuations.

[0124] Those skilled in the art should understand that the embodiments of the present invention can be provided as a method, a system, or a computer program product. Therefore, the present invention can adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Moreover, the present invention can adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0125] The present invention is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatuses (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each flow and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, and the combination of flows and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to the processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing devices to generate a machine, such that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing devices produce means for implementing the functions specified in one flow Figure 1 one flow or multiple flows and / or blocks Figure 1 or multiple blocks.

[0126] These computer program instructions can also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to work in a specific manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce a manufactured article including instruction means that implement the functions specified in one flow Figure 1 one flow or multiple flows and / or blocks Figure 1 or multiple blocks.

[0127] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, such that a series of operation steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to generate a computer-implemented process, and thus the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device provide steps for implementing the functions specified in one flow Figure 1 one flow or multiple flows and / or blocks Figure 1 or multiple blocks.

[0128] The above are only embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention are included within the scope of the claims of the present invention pending approval.

Claims

1. A new energy consumption risk early warning method, characterized in that, Including: Obtain the analysis data of new energy utilization rate quarterly; Calculate the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic power utilization rate according to the analysis data of new energy utilization rate; If the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic power utilization rate drops by more than the drop threshold compared with the same period of last year, output a warning of new energy consumption risk.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein The wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic power utilization rate are determined according to the following formula: Wind power utilization rate = (wind power generation in this quarter - wind power curtailment in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%; Photovoltaic power utilization rate = (photovoltaic power generation in this quarter - photovoltaic power curtailment in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein After outputting a warning of new energy consumption risk when the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic power utilization rate drops by more than the drop threshold compared with the same period of last year, it further includes: Obtain the analysis data of new energy consumption traceability quarterly; Calculate the growth rate of the analysis data of new energy consumption traceability according to the analysis data of new energy consumption traceability; Conduct traceability analysis based on the growth rate of the analysis data of new energy consumption traceability to obtain the inducement for the reduction of new energy consumption.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The analysis data of new energy consumption traceability includes at least one or more of the following: wind power installed capacity, photovoltaic installed capacity, pumped storage installed capacity, new energy storage installed capacity, electricity consumption, new energy transaction electricity between provinces, new energy grid connection investment or open capacity of the distribution network.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein The growth rate of the analysis data of new energy consumption traceability is determined according to the following formula: Growth rate of wind power installed capacity = (wind power installed capacity at the end of this quarter - wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / wind power installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%; Growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity = (photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of this quarter - photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%; Growth rate of pumped storage installed capacity = (pumped storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / pumped storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%; Growth rate of new energy storage installed capacity = (new energy storage installed capacity at the end of this quarter - new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year) / new energy storage installed capacity at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%; Growth rate of electricity consumption = (electricity consumption at the end of this quarter - electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of last year) / electricity consumption at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%; Growth rate of new energy transaction electricity between provinces = (new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of this quarter - new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of last year) / new energy transaction electricity between provinces at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%; Growth rate of new energy grid connection investment = (new energy grid connection investment at the end of this quarter - new energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of last year) / new energy grid connection investment at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%; Growth rate of open capacity of the distribution network = (open capacity of the distribution network at the end of this quarter - open capacity of the distribution network at the end of the same quarter of last year) / open capacity of the distribution network at the end of the same quarter of last year × 100%.

6. The method according to claim 4, wherein The conduct of traceability analysis based on the growth rate of the analysis data of new energy consumption traceability to obtain the inducement for the reduction of new energy consumption includes: If the growth rates of the wind power installed capacity and the photovoltaic installed capacity exceed the threshold, the inducement for the reduction of new energy consumption is that the development of new energy leads to the decline of new energy utilization rate; If the growth rate of the pumped-storage installed capacity and the growth rate of the new energy storage installed capacity are lower than the threshold value, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient regulation capacity; If the growth rate of the electricity consumption and the growth rate of the new energy transaction volume between provinces are lower than the threshold value, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient electricity demand; If the growth rate of the new energy grid connection investment and the growth rate of the open capacity of the distribution network are lower than the threshold value, the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption is insufficient grid resource allocation capacity.

7. A new energy consumption risk early warning system, characterized in that, Including: A module for analyzing the new energy utilization rate, a module for calculating the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic utilization rate, and a warning module; The module for analyzing the new energy utilization rate: is used to obtain the new energy utilization rate analysis data on a quarterly basis; The module for calculating the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic utilization rate: is used to calculate the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic utilization rate according to the new energy utilization rate analysis data; The warning module: is used to output a new energy consumption risk warning if the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic utilization rate drops by more than the drop threshold compared with the same period of last year.

8. The system according to claim 7, wherein The wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic utilization rate in the module for calculating the wind power utilization rate and the photovoltaic utilization rate are determined by the following formula: Wind power utilization rate = (wind power generation in this quarter - wind power curtailment in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%; Photovoltaic utilization rate = (photovoltaic power generation in this quarter - photovoltaic curtailment in this quarter) / wind power generation in this quarter × 100%.

9. The system according to claim 7, wherein Also including: A module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data, a module for calculating the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data, and a module for analyzing the cause; The module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data: is used to obtain the new energy consumption traceability analysis data on a quarterly basis; The module for calculating the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data: is used to calculate the growth rate of new energy consumption traceability analysis data according to the new energy consumption traceability analysis data; The module for analyzing the cause: is used to conduct traceability analysis according to the growth rate of the new energy consumption traceability analysis data to obtain the reason for the reduction in new energy consumption.

10. The system according to claim 9, wherein The new energy consumption traceability analysis data in the module for obtaining new energy consumption traceability analysis data includes at least one or more of the following: wind power installed capacity, photovoltaic installed capacity, pumped-storage installed capacity, new energy storage installed capacity, electricity consumption, new energy transaction volume between provinces, new energy grid connection investment, or open capacity of the distribution network.

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